Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Georgia GOP Primary: Gingrich In The Lead

Posted Feb 29, 2012 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Landmark/Rosetta Stone poll in Georgia reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable, a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum, 38% to 25%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19% and Ron Paul at 4%.

Michigan GOP Primary: Romney Win?

Posted Feb 28, 2012 at 2:13 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of polling in today's Michigan GOP presidential primary--four polls released on Monday are included--suggest a very close race, with Mitt Romney the very slight favorite over Rick Santorum. Our poll average in Michigan places Romney at 37.5% over Santorum, with 35.8% Both Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are far behind, with well under 15% each. Polling in the field last night, however, shows overnight momentum by Santorum. With a scant 1.5% lead in our aggregate, the race appears VERY close with the potential for a Santorum upset.



Romney Leading In Tomorrow's GOP Primary In Arizona

Posted Feb 27, 2012 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey from American Research Group reports that Mitt Romney maintains a slim lead in the Arizona GOP primary at 39%, followed by Rick Santorum at 35%, Newt Gingrich at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.


Romney Ahead In Michigan

Posted Feb 24, 2012 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

Two new polls out this morning show that Mitt Romney has regained the lead over Rick Santorum in the Michigan GOP primary. A poll by Mitchell/Rosetta Stone irepoorts that has Romney with a small lead over Santorum,, 36% to 33%, with Ron Paul at 12% and Newt Gingrich at 9%. Another 11% are still undecided. And Rasmussen shows Romney leading Santorum by six points, 40% to 36%. According to the former survey, "Romney has made big inroads with conservatives over the past ten days: 16% lead among Tea Party voters has been erased and he is now tied with them; his 16% lead with Evangelical Christians has now been cut in half to 8%, and Santorums 31% lead with self-identified conservatives has now been cut to 13%."

GOP Interest In Election Ebbing

Posted Feb 23, 2012 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

In what may be a serious problem for GOP prospects in November, a new survey by Associated Press-GfK reports that interest in the Republican presidential race is on the wane: Just 40% of Republicans say they have a great deal of interest in following the contest, compared with 48% in December. Just as ominous for the GOP, the poll finds that a mere 23% are "strongly satisfied" with the field and 40% said they are dissatisfied with the candidates running.

Arizona Primary: Romney Comfortably Ahead

Posted Feb 22, 2012 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by We Ask America in Arizona reports that Mitt Romney is leading in next week's GOP presidential primary with 37%, followed by Rick Santorum at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at 8%.

Today's Map: Iowa Now Leaning Republican

Posted Feb 21, 2012 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger

Although President Obama's standing in many of the swing states--including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio--have show improvement in recent weeks, his standing in one state, Iowa, is actually in decline. A poll by the Des Moines Register in Iowa shows the president trailing three of the four Republican candidates in head-to-head match-ups: Ron Paul, who leads Obama by +7%, 49% to 42%. Rick Santorum leads 48% to 44%. Mitt Romney leads Obama 46% to 44%. The president defeats only Newt Gingrich, 51% to 37%. PollTrack moves Iowa on Today's Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Republican.

Who Is Leading In Michigan GOP Primary?

Posted Feb 20, 2012 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

Who is leading in the Michigan GOP primary. Recent polling remain somewhat inconclusive. A new survey by American Research Group reports that Rick Santorum leads the state's GOP presidential primary with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 32%, Ron Paul at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 10%. Another poll, by Inside Michigan Politics, reports a much closer race, with Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum tied with 33% each, followed by Ron Paul at 7% and Newt Gingrich at 5%. Stay tuned to PollTrack this week for the latest polling in what could be a make or break state for the two leading candidates.

Santorum Leads In Michigan

Posted Feb 17, 2012 at 2:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Detroit News in Michigan reports that Rick Santorum now leads Mitt Romney by +4%--34% to 30%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12% and Ron Paul 9%.

More Good News For the President

Posted Feb 16, 2012 at 2:21 AM by Maurice Berger

As PollTrack noted yesterday, the tide appears to be turning in favor of the president's reelection. Two new polls, hypothetical matchups for the fall election, confirm this observation.  A survey by CNN/Opinion Research reports that President Obama bests all of his possible Republican rivals in GOP match ups: Obama leads Romney, 51% to 46%, tops Santorum, 52% to 45%, beats Paul, 52% to 45%, and crushes Gingrich, 55% to 42%.

Another poll, by Fox News, of key battleground states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin -- reports the same: Obama leads Romney, 47% to 39%, tops Santorum, 48% to 38%, beats Paul 48% to 37% and crushes Gingrich, 52% to 32%.

Santorum Ahead In Ohio GOP Primary

Posted Feb 15, 2012 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in Ohio reports that Rick Santorum now leads Mitt Romney among likely GOP primary voters, 36% to 29%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20% and Ron Paul at 9%.

Election 2012: Santorum New front Runner?

Posted Feb 14, 2012 at 2:11 AM by Maurice Berger

A slew of new polls out over the weekend suggest the the race for the GOP nomination for president has a new frontrunner: Rick Santorum. PollTrack also notes that these national polls are also backed up by local state polls also showing Santorum in the lead, such as in Michigan and Pennsylvania, states where Romney had been leading as little as three weeks ago. On the natiional front, a just released survey by New York Times/CBS News reports that Santorum is surging among Republican primary voters nationwide, "lifted by support among conservatives, evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporters." In the poll, Santorum leads with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 27%, Ron Paul at 12% and Newt Gingrich at 10%.

Santorum's Support Jumps In PA

Posted Feb 13, 2012 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV in Pennsylvania reports that  Rick Santorum's support has more than doubled in his home state, though its primary is more than two months away. Santorum now leads with 30% (six weeks ago he was at 14%), followed by Romney at 29% and Newt Gingrich at 13%.

Romney Ahead In Michigan GOP Primary

Posted Feb 10, 2012 at 12:50 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Mitchell Research in Michigan reports that Mitt Romney holds a comfortable lead in the GOP primary race with 31%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 16%, Rick Santorum at 15% and Ron Paul at 15%. Since the poll was conducted before Romney lost contests in three states earlier this week, PollTrack will be following this race closely in the next few days.

Enthusiasm Gap Problem for GOP?

Posted Feb 09, 2012 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by DailyKos/Public Policy Polling suggests a potential problem for the GOP in its quest to unseat President Obama: The poll finds that 58% of Democrats were "very excited" about voting in this year's election, as compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months ago, enthusiasm tilted towards Republicans, 54% to 48%.
The Daily Kos observes: "Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for the GOP."

Today's Map: New Hampshire Leaning Democratic

Posted Feb 08, 2012 at 1:41 AM by Maurice Berger

With a new survey by WMUR Granite State Poll reporting that  President Obama's standing in New Hampshire has improved considerably over the past six months--Obama's approval rating now stands at 51% and he beats Mitt Romney in a possible general election match up, 50% to 40%--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Presidential Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Democratic.

Romney Way Up In Colorado Caucuses

Posted Feb 07, 2012 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Colorado finds Mitt Romney primed for another big win in today's caucuses. The poll reports that Romney is ahead of the pack with 40%, followed by Rick Santorum at 26%, Newt Gingrich at 18% and Ron Paul at 12%.

Minnesota Caucuses: Tight Race

Posted Feb 06, 2012 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey by Public Policy Polling in Minnesota reports a very close race heading into Tuesday's caucuses. Rick Santorum bests Mitt Romney, by a mere +2%, 29% to 27%, with Newt Gingrich at 22% and Ron Paul at 19%.

Romney Headed For Big Nevada Victory

Posted Feb 03, 2012 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey by Public Policy Polling in Nevada reports that Mitt Romney is headed for a big victory in tomorrow's caucuses. Romney leads Newt Gingrich, 50% to 25%, with Ron Paul at 15% and Rick Santorum at 8%. PPP observes that "the bad news for Gingrich isn't just that's headed for a distant second place finish. Nevada Republicans actively dislike him, with only 41% holding a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative one. That's an indication that GOP voters might be starting to sour on him again, sending his numbers back to pre-South Carolina levels."Nevertheless, Nevada does not have a direct primary, so polling may not accurately reflect the make up of tomorrow's participants. Still, PollTrack these numbers--consistent with other recent polls in the state--suggest a Romney win.

Electoral Map: Ohio Leans Democratic

Posted Feb 02, 2012 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

With a new Public Policy Polling survey reporting that President Obama has broken even with Ohio voters-- 48% now approve of him with an equal 48% disapproving--PollTrack now rates the state "Leaning Democrat" on Today's Map. This call is influenced by another finding in the poll: Just 28% of Ohioans have a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney to 56% with a negative one. According to the survey, Obama leads Romney in a possible general election match up by seven points, 49% to 42%.

GOP Nomination: The Contests In February

Posted Feb 01, 2012 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

Mitt Romney's substantial victory in yesterday's Florida primary may give him a significant advantage in the GOP presidential nomination contest, but many more primaries and caucuses lie ahead for the Republican field. Here's a breakdown for February:


  • Nevada caucuses - February 4
  • Maine caucuses - February 4-11
  • Minnesota caucuses - February 7
  • Missouri primary - February 7
  • Colorado caucuses - February 7
  • Arizona primary - February 28
  • Michigan primary - February 29