Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Ronney Not Popular Nationally

Posted Mar 30, 2012 at 12:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll from ABC News-Washington Post reports that Mitt Romney now trails President Obama by 19% in popularity. Just 34% hold a favorable opinion of Romney as compared to 53% for Obama. In the poll, Romney's 50% unfavorable score is higher than Obama ever has received.

Santorum's Support Drops In Pennsylvania

Posted Mar 29, 2012 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania reports that Rick 's once healthy lead in his home state over Mitt Romney, has diminished to a few percentage points, 30% to 28%.

Obama Holds Huge Lead Among Women Voters

Posted Mar 28, 2012 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

In another sign that President Obama may have the edge in his reelection effort this fall, a new survey by Economist/YouGov reports that the President leads Mitt Romney among women by a considerable +17 points, 55% to 38%. Still, Romney edges Obama among men by 45% to 43%--a number not sufficient enough for the Republican to overtake Obama's lead among women.

Romney Way Up In Wisconsin

Posted Mar 27, 2012 at 2:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Rasmussen in Wisconsin finds Mitt Romney with a huge lead over Rick Santorum in the 3 April Republican presidential primary, 46% to 33%, followed by Ron Paul at 8% and Newt Gingrich at 7%.

Romney Holds Huge Lead In California Primary

Posted Mar 26, 2012 at 12:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times in California reports that Mitt Romney holds a whopping +19% lead over Rick Santorum in the GOP presidential race, at 42% to 23%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12% and Ron Paul at 10%.

Santorum Headed For Louisiana Win

Posted Mar 23, 2012 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen in Louisiana reports that Rick Santorum now hold a sizable lead over Mitt Romney in tomorrow's primary, 43% to 31%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 16% and Ron Paul at 5%.

 

VA GOP Govenor's Approval Sinks

Posted Mar 22, 2012 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Quinnipiac reports that GOP Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell's approval rating now stands at 53% to 32%--a drop of 13 points in his approval number since last month. Political Wire notes that "the change is almost entirely the result of a shift by women that occurred during the state legislature's debate over a new law that requires women seeking an abortion to undergo an ultrasound examination."

Gallup: US Satisfaction Index Has Hit Ten Month High

Posted Mar 21, 2012 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "26% of Americans are now satisfied with the way things are going in the country, up from 22% in February and 18% in January. Satisfaction has not been this high since last May when it previously hit 26% -- buoyed by the death of Osama bin Laden -- and before that, April 2010 when it was 27%." While this number is still low, it suggest relative, nd perhaps politically valuable, improvement for the President's reelection effort.  Here is Gallup's chart:

Satisfied with the U.S.?

Romney, Santorum Tie As Gingrich Voters' Second Choice

Posted Mar 20, 2012 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Gallup, "Republican voters who prefer Newt Gingrich for the party's 2012 presidential nomination are as likely to name Mitt Romney as their second choice as they are to name Rick Santorum, suggesting the race would not tilt in Santorum's favor if Gingrich dropped out." Here is Gallup's chart:

 

Gingrich Supporters' Second Choice for the Republican Nomination

Romney Ahead In Illinois Primary

Posted Mar 19, 2012 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Two Polls suggest a Romney victory in tomorrow's Illinois primary. We Ask America reports that Romney leads the race with 37%, followed by Rick Santorum at 31%, Newt Gingrich at 14% and Ron Paul at 8%. Rasmussen shows a wider advantage for Romney, who leads with 41%, followed by Santorum at 32%, Gingrich at 14% and Paul at 7%.

Santorum Ahead In Texas

Posted Mar 16, 2012 at 12:40 AM by Maurice Berger

In the state with the second biggest pool of GOP delegates--Texas--the momentum appears to be shifting away from Mitt Romney. A newly released  Wilson Perkins Allen survey reports that Rick Santorum now leads the 29 May Republican presidential contest with 35%, followed by Mitt Romney at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 20% and Ron Paul at 8%.

Majority Of Voters Believe President Obama Will Be Reelected

Posted Mar 14, 2012 at 11:28 PM by Maurice Berger

In an important indicator for the President--since, as PollTrack note, perception plays a big role in politics--a new Pew Research survey reports that 59% of American voters say that President Obama is likely to be re-elected if his opponent is Mitt Romney; between Obama and Rick Santorum, 68% anticipate an Obama victory.

Rasmussen: Obama Ahead In Four Key Swing States

Posted Mar 14, 2012 at 3:02 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Rasmussen, "President Obama now holds a modest lead over Mitt Romney . . .  in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The numbers mark a shift from late February when Obama was tied in the four states. Obama is now ahead of the former Massachusetts governor 46% to 42%. 6% prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and 6% are undecided."

Conflicting Polls In Mississippi GOP Primary

Posted Mar 13, 2012 at 12:17 AM by Maurice Berger

Two new polls suggest conflicting outcomes in Mississippi's upcoming GOP primary: a poll by American Research Group shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential primary with 35%, followed by Mitt Romney at 31%, Rick Santorum at 20%, and Ron Paul at 7%. But Rasmussen repoorts a different result, with Romney leading at 35%, Santorum and Gingrich both at 27% and Paul way back at 6%.

Gingrich Ahead In Alabama

Posted Mar 11, 2012 at 11:55 PM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Alabama State University reports that Newt Gingrich has jumped into the lead in Alabama's GOP presidential race with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 20% and Rick Santorum at 17%. Another, earlier, poll by Rasmussen shows a much closer race, with Newt Gingrich at 30%, followed by Rick Santorum at 29%, Mitt Romney at 28% and Ron Paul at 7%.

President Obama Way Ahead With Hispanic Voters

Posted Mar 09, 2012 at 3:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A new national Fox News Latino poll of likely Latino voters reports that "73% approve of Obama’s performance in office, with over half those questioned looking favorably upon his handling of the healthcare debate and the economy, at 66% and 58% respectively. . . . the poll shows that the overwhelming choice among likely Latino voters is President Obama. In head-to-head match-ups none of the GOP candidates would garner more than 14 percent of the Latino vote come November." If these numbers can be sustained, PollTrack believes that it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for a GOP candidate to make up the difference. The poll is very good news for the President's reelection effort and a warning to Republicans.

Maine Voters Support Gay Marriage

Posted Mar 07, 2012 at 9:01 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey in Maine by Public Policy Polling reports that there is a strong probability that voters in the state are likely to reverse their 2009 decision and legalize gay marriage in this fall: 54% say gay marriage should be legal; only 41% who think it should be illegal. According to the poll, "Republicans' opinions are pretty much the same as they were in 2009. But Democrats' support for gay marriage has increased slightly, from 71% to 78%. And more importantly independents have gone from voting against gay marriage 52/46 three years ago to now supporting it by a 57/36 margin."

Super Tuesday Updates

Posted Mar 05, 2012 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

Here are polling updates from PollTrack on the upcoming GOP primary and causes race for tomorrow's Super Tuesday sweep.

Georgia: Landmark/Rosetta Stone shows a possible Newt Gingrich romp in the state, with the former house speaker way ahead of the GOP presidential field in his home state with 42%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Rick Santorum at 16% and Ron Paul at 5%. Interestingly, YouGov show a much closer race, with Gingrich at 32%, followed by Romney at 27%, Santorum at 17% and Paul at 10%

Massachusetts: According to YouGov, it's a Romney romp in the former governor's home state. Romney leads with 56%, followed by Santorum at 16%, Gingrich at 5% and Paul at 5%.

Ohio: In the all important--and perhaps make or break race for Rick Santorum--in Ohio, a survey by NBC News/Marist reports that Santorum is just ahead of Romney among GOP primary voters, 34% to 32%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at 13%.

Oklahoma: American Research Group reports that Santorum leads the GOP presidential field in next week's primary with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 26%, Newt Gingrich at 22%, and Ron Paul at 9%.

Tennessee: Rasmussen survey finds Santorum just ahead of  Romney, 34% to 30%, with Newt Gingrich at 18% and Ron Paul at 8%. Similarly, American Research Group shows Santorum leading Romney, 35% to 31%, with Gingrich at 20% and Paul at 9%.

Large Majority Support Same-Sex Marriage In NJ

Posted Mar 02, 2012 at 2:19 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite Gov. Christie's veto of a bill that would have made same-sex marriage legal in New Jersey, a new poll by Quinnipiac shows support in the state for gay marriage has climbed to an all-time high, 57% to 37%, a whopping +20% margin.

Tennessee GOP Primary: Santorum Way Ahead

Posted Mar 01, 2012 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Vanderbilt University in Tennessee reports that Rick Santorum lead the GOP presidential primary by a significant +16% margin over Mitt Romney, 33% to 17%, followed by Ron Paul at 13% and Newt Gingrich at 10%.