Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Fox News Survey: Obama And Romney In Dead Heat

Posted Apr 30, 2012 at 8:09 AM by Maurice Berger

The latest survey from Fox News reports that if the presidential election were held now, the race would be tied, with President Obama and Mitt Romney each garnering 46%. Interesting, and perhaps one reason for the closeness of the race as reported by the Fox poll: a majority of Americans -- 61% for President Obama and 58% for Mitt Romney -- believe that neither candidate has a plan to fix the economy.

Sharp Rise in Americans Who Say Nation Is On Right Track

Posted Apr 27, 2012 at 8:32 AM by Maurice Berger

In yet another piece of positive election news for President Obama's reelection effort, a new survey by CNN/Opinion Research reports that 43% of "Americans say things are going well in the country," an increase of +19% points from August. Still, 57% say things are still "going badly," but Obama's modest lead over Romney in most recent polls suggest that this negativity does not immediately translate into support for his GOP challenger, Mitt Romney.  

Obama Holds Slight Lead In Florida

Posted Apr 26, 2012 at 9:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Fox News suggests that the President continues to hold hold a very modest lead over Mitt Romney in Florida, where he is ahead by two points,  45% to 43%.

Another Poll Shows The President Ahead In Ohio

Posted Apr 24, 2012 at 9:01 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll, by Fox News, released late last week reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by six points in the key swing state of Ohio--45% to 39.

Election 2012: Obama Leads Romney In Ohio

Posted Apr 23, 2012 at 9:22 AM by Maurice Berger

Some good news for President Obama in the key swing state of Ohio--a new Rasmussen poll in Ohio reports that he now leads Mitt Romney by four points, 46% to 42%.

Romney With Slight Lead In New Hampshire

Posted Apr 20, 2012 at 10:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Dartmouth College in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney has a slight edge over President Obama in a general election match up, 44% to 42%.

CBS/NYT: Obama and Romney Tied

Posted Apr 19, 2012 at 7:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by CBS News/New York Times reports that Mitt Romney has closed the gap with President Obama among registered voters nationally: the two are now tied at 46% each.

Americans Favor "Buffett Rule"

Posted Apr 18, 2012 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Gallup, "6 in 10 Americans favor Congress' passing the so-called "Buffett Rule," which would mandate a minimum 30% tax rate for Americans with a household income of $1 million or more per year. Majorities of both Democrats and independents favor the policy, while a majority of Republicans oppose it." Here is Gallup's chart:


Would you favor or oppose Congress passing a new law that would require households earning $1 million a year or more to pay a minimum of 30% of their income in taxes?

The Demographics Of The President's Approval Numbers

Posted Apr 17, 2012 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup has a fascinating demographic snapshot of the president's approval rating, now at 47%. Significantly, he holds a solid majority from his own party (84%), and does extremely well with African American (88%) and Hispanic voters (61%). The demographic breakdown also suggest a few red flags for the President's reelection effort: only 36% of white voters approve of his performance, he polls no better than 38% with voters over the age of 65%, and--perhaps most significantly--his standing among independents hovers at 40%. The good news for the administration: approval numbers do not always reflect voter sentiment in a general election. Obama's fares much better with independents, for example, when pitted against his likely GOP challenger, Mitt Romney. Stay tuned.



Large Marjority Of Americans See Romney As Out Of Touch

Posted Apr 16, 2012 at 8:37 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Economist/YouGov suggests a major problem for Mitt Romney as he moves into the general election phase of his campaign: that he out of touch and does not care about people. The poll notes: "Obama does not really have that problem: 48% say Obama cares about people like them, 52% say he does not. That's not a rip-roarin' populist image, but it certainly surpasses Romney's scores: 38% say Romney cares about people like them, 63% he does not."

Obama Leads Romney In North Carolina

Posted Apr 13, 2012 at 9:38 AM by Maurice Berger

In yet another example of relatively strong numbers for the president's reelection effort, a new survey by Public Policy Polling in North Carolina reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points, 49% to 44%. PPP notes: "The Republican nomination process has taken a huge toll on Romney's image in North Carolina. In February of 2011 voters in the state were almost evenly divided on him with 37% rating him favorably to 39% who had a negative opinion of him. Now that spread is a dreadful 29/58. His numbers with GOP voters are about where they've been, but he's seen a considerable drop in his appeal to Democrats and independents."

Chris Christie Less Popular In Home State

Posted Apr 12, 2012 at 9:05 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite the earlier urging of some GOP insiders, Chris Cristie declined to enter the Republican nomination race for president. A new poll, Rutgers-Eagleton reports that while the New Jersey governor's favorability rating show little change, 46% to 42%, voters are more likely to describe him as "stubborn, arrogant and self-centered than they were six months ago." Over the past six months, those who describe him as "arrogant" increased by 15%. The terms "self-centered" and "bully" each gained 11%, "stubborn" increased by 12% and "angry" by 11%.

Independent Women Prefer Obama By Wide Margin Over Romney

Posted Apr 11, 2012 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger

One reason the president's reelection numbers have improved in recent months, according to a poll by the Washington Post is that his support among independent women -- a key group of swing voters --has improved considerably. According to the survey, "Obama had been trailing Romney by five points in a series of surveys late last year. But that number shifted dramatically in polling conducted in February and March, and the president took a 14% lead over the former Massachusetts governor, marking a net gain of 19%."

Romney Swamping His Challengers In New York

Posted Apr 10, 2012 at 9:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in New York reports that Mitt Romney is crushing his nearest rival, Rick Santorum, among GOP primary voters, 54% to 21%, with Newt Gingrich at 9% and Ron Paul at 8%.

Romney Nows Leads In Pennsylvania

Posted Apr 09, 2012 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite the make or break status of Pennsylvania for its former GOP Senator, Rick Santorum, a new Public Policy Polling survey in the state reports that Mitt Romney now now leads Rick Santorum, 42% to 37%, with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. Last month, Romney was behind in the state, 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum's dropped 6% points from 43% to 37%.


Romney Now Ahead In PA

Posted Apr 06, 2012 at 9:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Public Policy Polling in Pennsylvania reports that Mitt Romney is now leading Rick Santorum, 42% to 37%, with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%.

Today Map: President Obama Over 270 EVs

Posted Apr 05, 2012 at 8:39 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack has made substantive changes to Today's Map that suggest that if the election were held today, President Obama would secure enough electoral votes to achieve victory. Much can change between now and November, but given the improvement in the President's numbers over the past six months, this change represents significant movement

Obama Leads By Significant Margin In Battleground States

Posted Apr 04, 2012 at 9:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A new USA Today/Gallup poll in a dozen battleground states finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney, 51% to 42%. The survey finds that the "biggest change came among women under 50. In mid-February, just under half of those voters supported Obama. Now more than six in 10 do while Romney's support among them has dropped by 14 points, to 30%. The president leads him 2-1 in this group."The ten states surveyed were: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina,  Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Romney Way Ahead In Maryland

Posted Apr 03, 2012 at 12:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A Public Policy Polling survey suggests that Mitt Romney is way head in today's Maryland GOP primary. Romney leads with 52%, followed by Rick Santorum at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 10% and Ron Paul at 9%.

Romney Ahead In Wisconsin Primary

Posted Apr 02, 2012 at 2:04 AM by Maurice Berger

Mitt Romney holds a significant lead over Rick Santorumin tomorrow's Wisconsin GOP primary according to a new Rasmussen survey. The poll reports that Romney leads Santorum, 44% to 34%, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul each at 7%.