Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Massachusetts US Senate: A Virtual Tie

Posted May 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM by Maurice Berger

The US Senate race in Massachusetts--potentially one of the closest, most expensive, and hardest fought in the 2012 cycle--remains nearly deadlocked. A new poll by Suffolk University reports that the Republican incumbent, Scott Brown holds a razor thin lead over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren, 48% to 47%. The survey's analysis continues: "Brown has fallen short of the coveted 50% mark for an incumbent, while Elizabeth Warren has converted some undecided voters since February. This leaves both campaigns no choice but to spend tens of millions of dollars in an all-out war to woo the five percent of voters who will decide this election."

Romney Slightly Ahead in North Carolina

Posted May 30, 2012 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Civitas Institute in North Carolina reports that Mitt Romney is slightly ahead of President Obama in the battleground state, 47% to 45%.

Today's Presidential Map: The Race Draws Closer

Posted May 29, 2012 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger

New calls by PollTrack on Today's Map suggest that the presidential race is growing closer. Our new tally (with leaners and safe states factored in):

Obama (D): 255 EVs

Romney (R): 235 EVs

Too-Close-To-Call: 48 EV

Has Obama's Gay Marriage Stand Swung Voters in Maryland?

Posted May 28, 2012 at 9:09 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's recent support of same-sex marriage appears to have swung voters in Maryland, where a marriage referendum will appear on the ballot this fall: a new survey in the state by Public Policy Polling reports a significant increase in support for same-sex marriage among African American voters following President Obama's historic announcement two weeks ago. The referendum to keep the state's new law legalizing same-sex marriage appears headed for victory,  with support now at 57% (compared to 37% against), a 12 point shift from a similar survey in early March.

Obama With Modest Lead in FL, OH, VA

Posted May 25, 2012 at 7:08 AM by Maurice Berger

Three new surveys by NBC/Marist report that President Obama maintains a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in three key  battleground states: Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 44%

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 42%

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 44%

Kerrey Way Behind In Nebraska

Posted May 24, 2012 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger

Although the candidacy of former Sen. Bob Kerrey was seen as the Democrat's best hope of saving the seat now being vacated by Democrat Ben Nelson, Rasmussen, in the first poll of Nebraska's U.S. Senate race after this week's GOP primary, finds GOP candidate Deb Fischer almost +20% ahead of Kerrey, 56% to 38%.

Election 2012: Tied In Tennessee?

Posted May 23, 2012 at 9:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Although Tennessee has been a traditional red state in presidential elections (even when native son Al Gore ran in 2000), a new poll by Vanderbilt University poll reports that President Obama has pulled into a virtual tie with Mitt Romney. In the survey, Romney leads Obama by +1% among likely voters, 42% to 41%; however, among registered voters, Romney has a considerably larger lead, 47% to 40%.

Will The Presendent's Endorsement of Gay Marriage Change African American Sentiment?

Posted May 22, 2012 at 9:04 AM by Maurice Berger

One significant political question in the wake of the President's endorsement of same-sex marriage is whether this support will translate into a shift in African American public opinion on the subject. A new survey by Public Policy Polling in North Carolina reports that the answer may be yes. The poll finds "a noticeable shift" in the attitudes of African Americans toward rights for gay couples in the wake of President Obama's announcement last week that he supports gay marriage. PPP continues: "our final poll before the primary last week found only 20% of black voters in the state favoring gay marriage, with 63% opposed. Now 27% express support for gay marriage with 59% opposed, for an overall 11 point shift on the margin."

Majority of Americans Think President Obama Will Win Rellection

Posted May 21, 2012 at 8:56 AM by Maurice Berger

In presidential elections, long-term expectations of who will win are often more important than the actual polling distance between the candidates. By this measure, President Obama is well situated. According to a new survey by Gallup, "56% of Americans think Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election, compared with 36% who think Mitt Romney will win. Democrats are more likely to believe that Obama will win than Republicans are to believe Romney will. Independents are nearly twice as likely to think that Obama, rather than Romney, will prevail."

Romney vs Obama: Conflicting Nation Polls

Posted May 17, 2012 at 8:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Three just released national polls show mixed results in the presidential race. Two polls report a slightly Romney lead: Washington Times/JZ Analytics poll shows Mitt Romney just edging President Obama nationally, 44% to 43%. One from YouGov/Economist finds Romney ahead 46% to 42%. Another, from Fox News reports that Obama now leads Romney by seven points, 46% to 39%. Just three weeks ago the same poll showed the candidates were tied at 46%.

Obama In The Lead In Maine

Posted May 16, 2012 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey for Critical Insights in Maine reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by +8%--50% to 42%--numbers that also show the president hovering at the 50% mark, an important indicator of his potential strength in the state.

Obama Ahead In Michigan

Posted May 15, 2012 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Glengariff Group in Michigan reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney, 45% to 40%.

Majority Of Americans Support Obama's Gay Marriage Position

Posted May 14, 2012 at 9:01 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that 51% of Americans say they approve of President Obama's position that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry legal. 60% say, however,  that the president's shift in position will have no bearing on how they vote in the November election.

Investors Support Obama Over Romney

Posted May 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

In another sign of the president's improving prospects for reelection, a new survey by Bloomberg Global reports that investors around the world increasingly prefer President Obama to Mitt Romney in the presidential election, 49% to 38%. As recently as two months ago, the candidates were tied in the poll.

Obama Ahead Nationally

Posted May 10, 2012 at 8:37 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Investors Business Daily/TIPP reports that President Obama holds a slight +3% lead nationally over GOP challenger Mitt Romney--46% to 43%.

African American, Hispanic Voter Registration Down Sharply

Posted May 09, 2012 at 8:58 AM by Maurice Berger

In a development that could complicate President Obama's reelection effort, "the number of black and Hispanic registered voters has fallen sharply since 2008, posing a serious challenge to the Obama campaign in an election that could turn on the participation of minority voters," according to a story in the Washington Post. The Post continues: "Voter rolls typically shrink in non-presidential election years, but this is the first time in nearly four decades that the number of registered Hispanics has dropped significantly."

Romney Ahead In Arizona

Posted May 08, 2012 at 8:16 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite the hopes of the Obama campaign for picking up the traditionally Republican state of Arizona--and recent polls suggesting that the state might be competitive in the presidential election--a new survey by Magellan Strategies reports that Mitt Romney holds a considerable +9% lead over President Obama, 52% to 43%.

Quinnipiac: Obama with Slight Lead in Ohio and PA, Romney Ahead in Florida

Posted May 07, 2012 at 9:14 AM by Maurice Berger

The latest batch of Quinnipiac polls reports a tightening of the presidential race in three key swing states:

Florida: Romney 44%, Obama 43%

Ohio: Obama 44%, Romney 42%

Pennsylvania: Obama 47%, Romney 39%.

Obama Ahead In Virginia

Posted May 04, 2012 at 9:34 AM by Maurice Berger

In another dramatic indication of the changing demographics of the American electorate, a new poll by the Washington Post in Virginia reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by +7%--51% to 44%. The post analysis concludes that "Virginia voters are equally split on Obama's major initiatives, including his signature health care reform law, and remain deeply pessimistic about the way things are going in the country. But the president has a key advantage in his bid for reelection: The coalition of Virginians that propelled him to victory in 2008 -- young voters, suburban Washingtonians, women and African Americans -- is largely intact."

Hillary Clinton Favorability Hits New High

Posted May 03, 2012 at 9:31 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Washington Post-ABC News reports that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's favorable rating--at 65%--is the highest level of support reached by the former first lady in the history of the poll. Just 27% of respondents viewed Clinton unfavorably.

Obama, Romney in Close Race In Arizona

Posted May 02, 2012 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger

Arizona, a reliable red state in presidential elections, holds some good news for President Obama: a new Rocky Mountain Poll in the state finds President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney, 42% to 40% with 18% undecided. An earlier survey, by Merrill/Morrisson Institute reported a two-point lead for Romney, a surprisingly close race (fueled, in part, by Hispanic voters unhappy with the GOP agenda on immigration issues) for a GOP candidate.

Purple Poll: Race Close In Four Key Swing States

Posted May 01, 2012 at 9:42 AM by Maurice Berger

Purple Poll surveys four key swing states and finds an extremely close presidential race: President Obama is ahead of Mitt Romney in Ohio 49% to 44%, and holds a slight lead in Virginia, 48% to 46%. The candidates are tied in Colorado, 47% to 47%. Romney holds a slight lead in Florida, 47% to 45%.