Posted May 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM by Maurice Berger
The US Senate race in Massachusetts--potentially one of the closest, most expensive, and hardest fought in the 2012 cycle--remains nearly deadlocked. A new poll by Suffolk University reports that the Republican incumbent, Scott Brown holds a razor thin lead over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren, 48% to 47%. The survey's analysis continues: "Brown has fallen short of the coveted
50% mark for an incumbent, while Elizabeth Warren has converted some
undecided voters since February. This leaves both campaigns no choice
but to spend tens of millions of dollars in an all-out war to woo the
five percent of voters who will decide this election."
Posted May 30, 2012 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by the Civitas Institute in North Carolina reports that Mitt Romney is slightly ahead of President Obama in the battleground state, 47% to 45%.
Posted May 29, 2012 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger
New calls by PollTrack on Today's Map suggest that the presidential race is growing closer. Our new tally (with leaners and safe states factored in):
Obama (D): 255 EVs
Romney (R): 235 EVs
Too-Close-To-Call: 48 EV
Posted May 28, 2012 at 9:09 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's recent support of same-sex marriage appears to have swung voters in Maryland, where a marriage referendum will appear on the ballot this fall: a new survey in the state by Public Policy Polling reports a significant increase in support for same-sex
marriage among African American voters following President Obama's
historic announcement two weeks ago. The referendum to keep the state's new law legalizing same-sex marriage appears headed for victory, with support now at 57% (compared to 37% against), a 12 point
shift from a similar survey in early March.
Posted May 25, 2012 at 7:08 AM by Maurice Berger
Three new surveys by NBC/Marist report that President Obama maintains a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in three key battleground states: Florida, Ohio
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 44%
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 42%
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 44%
Posted May 24, 2012 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger
Although the candidacy of former Sen. Bob Kerrey was seen as the Democrat's best hope of saving the seat now being vacated by Democrat Ben Nelson, Rasmussen, in the first poll of Nebraska's U.S. Senate race after this week's GOP primary, finds GOP candidate Deb Fischer almost +20% ahead of Kerrey, 56% to 38%.
Posted May 23, 2012 at 9:26 AM by Maurice Berger
Although Tennessee has been a traditional red state in presidential elections (even when native son Al Gore ran in 2000), a new poll by Vanderbilt University poll reports that President Obama has pulled into a virtual tie with Mitt Romney. In the survey, Romney leads Obama by +1% among likely voters, 42% to 41%; however,
among registered voters, Romney has a considerably larger lead, 47% to 40%.
Posted May 22, 2012 at 9:04 AM by Maurice Berger
One significant political question in the wake of the President's endorsement of same-sex marriage is whether this support will translate into a shift in African American public opinion on the subject. A new survey by Public Policy Polling in North Carolina reports that the answer may be yes. The poll finds "a noticeable shift" in the attitudes of
African Americans toward rights for gay couples in the wake of President
Obama's announcement last week that he supports gay marriage. PPP continues: "our final poll before the primary last week found only 20%
of black voters in the state favoring gay marriage, with 63% opposed.
Now 27% express support for gay marriage with 59% opposed, for an
overall 11 point shift on the margin."
Posted May 21, 2012 at 8:56 AM by Maurice Berger
In presidential elections, long-term expectations of who will win are often more important than the actual polling distance between the candidates. By this measure, President Obama is well situated. According to a new survey by Gallup,
"56% of Americans think Barack Obama will win the 2012
presidential election, compared with 36% who think Mitt Romney will win.
Democrats are more likely to believe that Obama will win than
Republicans are to believe Romney will. Independents are nearly twice as
likely to think that Obama, rather than Romney, will prevail."
Posted May 17, 2012 at 8:26 AM by Maurice Berger
Three just released national polls show mixed results in the presidential race. Two polls report a slightly Romney lead: Washington Times/JZ Analytics poll shows Mitt Romney just edging President Obama nationally, 44% to 43%. One from YouGov/Economist finds Romney ahead 46% to 42%. Another, from Fox News reports that Obama now leads Romney by seven points,
46% to 39%. Just three weeks ago the same poll showed the candidates were tied at 46%.
Posted May 16, 2012 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey for Critical Insights in Maine reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by +8%--50% to 42%--numbers that also show the president hovering at the 50% mark, an important indicator of his potential strength in the state.
Posted May 15, 2012 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Glengariff Group in Michigan reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney, 45% to 40%.
Posted May 14, 2012 at 9:01 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that 51% of Americans say they approve of President Obama's position that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry legal. 60% say, however,
that the president's shift in position will have no bearing on how they vote in the
Posted May 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger
In another sign of the president's improving prospects for reelection, a new survey by Bloomberg Global reports that investors around the world increasingly prefer President Obama to Mitt Romney in the presidential election, 49% to 38%. As recently as two months ago, the candidates were tied in the poll.
Posted May 10, 2012 at 8:37 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Investors Business Daily/TIPP reports that President Obama holds a slight +3% lead nationally over GOP challenger Mitt Romney--46% to 43%.
Posted May 09, 2012 at 8:58 AM by Maurice Berger
In a development that could complicate President Obama's reelection effort, "the number of black and Hispanic registered voters has fallen sharply
since 2008, posing a serious challenge to the Obama campaign in an
election that could turn on the participation of minority voters," according to a story in the Washington Post. The Post continues: "Voter rolls typically shrink in non-presidential election years, but
this is the first time in nearly four decades that the number of
registered Hispanics has dropped significantly."
Posted May 08, 2012 at 8:16 AM by Maurice Berger
Despite the hopes of the Obama campaign for picking up the traditionally Republican state of Arizona--and recent polls suggesting that the state might be competitive in the presidential election--a new survey by Magellan Strategies reports that Mitt Romney holds a considerable +9% lead over President Obama, 52% to 43%.
Posted May 07, 2012 at 9:14 AM by Maurice Berger
The latest batch of Quinnipiac polls reports a tightening of the presidential race in three key swing states:
Florida: Romney 44%, Obama 43%
Ohio: Obama 44%, Romney 42%
Pennsylvania: Obama 47%, Romney 39%.
Posted May 04, 2012 at 9:34 AM by Maurice Berger
In another dramatic indication of the changing demographics of the American electorate, a new poll by the Washington Post in Virginia reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by +7%--51% to 44%. The post analysis concludes that "Virginia voters are equally split on
Obama's major initiatives, including his signature health care reform
law, and remain deeply pessimistic about the way things are going in the
country. But the president has a key advantage in his bid for
reelection: The coalition of Virginians that propelled him to victory in
2008 -- young voters, suburban Washingtonians, women and African
Americans -- is largely intact."
Posted May 03, 2012 at 9:31 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by Washington Post-ABC News reports that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's favorable rating--at 65%--is the
highest level of support reached by the former first lady in the history
of the poll. Just 27% of respondents viewed Clinton unfavorably.
Posted May 02, 2012 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger
Arizona, a reliable red state in presidential elections, holds some good news for President Obama: a new Rocky Mountain Poll in the state finds President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney, 42% to 40% with 18% undecided. An earlier survey, by Merrill/Morrisson Institute reported a two-point lead for Romney, a surprisingly close race (fueled, in part, by Hispanic voters unhappy with the GOP agenda on immigration issues) for a GOP candidate.
Posted May 01, 2012 at 9:42 AM by Maurice Berger
Purple Poll surveys four key swing states and
finds an extremely close presidential race: President Obama is ahead of Mitt Romney in Ohio 49% to 44%, and holds a slight
lead in Virginia, 48% to 46%. The candidates are tied in Colorado, 47%
to 47%. Romney holds a slight lead in Florida, 47% to 45%.