Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Obama Up By +4% Nationally

Posted Sep 28, 2012 at 9:23 AM by Maurice Berger

A smattering of polls released yesterday for the national presidential race report that President Obama is leading by an average of 4% percentage points: Fox News, for example, has Obama up by +5% (48% to Mitt Romney's 43%); Gallup reports a 6% lead (50% to 44%), and Reuters/Ipsos, a +7% lead (49% to 42%). The GOP-leaning Rasmussen Survey reports the race toed at 46%.

Today's Map: Iowa Moves From TCTC to Leaning Democratic

Posted Sep 27, 2012 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger

With a new poll by Public Policy Polling in Iowa showing a modest lead for the President over his GOP challenger, but also over the 50%-mark --it's now Obama 51%, Romney 44% according to the poll,--PollTrack has decided to move the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call, where it has been from the beginning of this election cycle, to Leaning Democratic. Since the PPP survey tends to trend slightly Democratic, PollTrack will keep a close eye on fresh polling in the state.

Florida: Back To Leaning Democratic

Posted Sep 26, 2012 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger

With the results of three recent polls reporting that the president is both leading and at, near or above the 50% mark in Florida, PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic.

Is The Tide Turning Blue?

Posted Sep 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM by Maurice Berger

With three new polls showing a small but consistent lead by President Obama over Mitt Romney, PollTrack moves North Carolina on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic. This move is significant, indicating a broader shift in recent days away from Romney and towards the president. As swing states that continue to trend modestly Republican--like North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia--now indicate a slight preference for Obama, classic purple states, like Ohio and Colorado, are increasingly showing strength for Obama.

Indeed, PollTrack has tracked another consistent trend: in many recent polls in battleground states such as Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, the president has inched up to (or in a number of cases over) the all-important 50% mark. With the probability fading that the president's convention bounce was merely transient--and the real possibility that these numbers might remain stable for the time being--PollTrack senses that the election may have reached a tipping point.From the perspective of history, such trends are very difficult for challengers to reverse this close to the election. Stay tuned.

Today's Map: FL Moves From Leaning Democratic to TCTC

Posted Sep 24, 2012 at 9:08 AM by Maurice Berger

Due to the very close and contradictory polling in Florida--Romney is up by+1% in one poll, Obama in another--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Too-Close-To-Call. A new poll by Public Policy Polling in Florida reports that President Obama leads Romney by four points, 50% to 46%. Given the slight Democratic title of that poll, PollTrack will await the next round of polling in the state to determine if it has moved sufficiently in one direction or another to call the state.

 

 

Virginia Leaning Democratic

Posted Sep 21, 2012 at 8:20 AM by Maurice Berger

Within the pat few days, the following polls in the presidential race have been released for the state of Virginia:

 

Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT: Obama 50%, Romney 46%

We Ask America: Obama 49%, Romney 46%

Fox News: Obama 50%, Romney 43%

 

With the president leading by as much as seven points--and hovering at or near the all-important 50% mark, the state appears to favor Obama. PollTrack continues to rate Virgina on Today's Map Leaning Democratic.

PollTrack: Wisconsin Not In Play

Posted Sep 20, 2012 at 1:00 AM by Maurice Berger

Two just released polls in Wisconsin--Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT which shows the race at Obama 51%, Romney 45% and Marquette Law School, with Obama 54%, Romney at 40%--suggest that recent reports that the state is in play may have been exaggerated. Based on recent polling data, demographics, and historical models, PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic. On Tomorrow's Map, the state moves from Leaning Democratic to Democratic.

Today's Map: Colorado Still To-Close-To-Call

Posted Sep 19, 2012 at 9:04 AM by Maurice Berger

With unemployment relatively high in the state--and the demographics fairly evenly divided between the two parties--the state of Colorado continues to look like a toss up to PollTrack. A new poll by the Denver post concludes: "after months of campaigning, multiple visits and millions spent on advertising, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are dead even in Colorado, according to a new Denver Post poll. The poll results . . . show Obama ahead of Romney by a single, statistically insignificant percentage point, 47% to 46%. When former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, who is running as the Libertarian nominee for president, is factored in, Obama's single-percentage-point lead remains, 45% to 44%. Johnson registers at 3% of the vote." PollTrack believes that the trend line for the state continues to favor the president (especially factoring in Johnson, who may pull more votes away from the GOP than the Democrats). Nevertheless, the state remains Too-Close-To-Call on Today's Map.



Perception Of Romney As Untruthful Hurts Him With Voters

Posted Sep 18, 2012 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Washington Post-ABC News reports that by a margin of 49% to 42%, voters believe the Obama campaign is "saying things it believes to be true" rather than "intentionally misleading people." The poll suggests a serious problem for the GOP challenger, with Mitt Romney's numbers nearly reversed: 43% say that his campaign is telling the truth, while 48% say not. PollTrack believes that this perception is one factor that might make it very difficult--if not impossible-- for Romney to overcome Obama's advantage coming out of the two conventions.

Today's Map: PA Moves From Leaning Democratic to Democratic

Posted Sep 17, 2012 at 9:01 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Philadelphia Inquirer poll in Pennsylvania reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney by +11% among likely voters, 50% to 39%. PollTrack now sees the state as out of reach for the GOP. It moves PA on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Democratic.

Obama Pulls Ahead In Three Swing States

Posted Sep 14, 2012 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger

Three new polls from Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist report that President Obama's lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio, Florida and Virginia has increased among likely voters. That the president is near or at the 50% mark in all three states suggests a problem for his GOP challenger.

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 44%

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 43%

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 44%

Michigan Moves From Leaning DemocraticTo Democratic

Posted Sep 13, 2012 at 9:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A new surveyby EPIC-MRA in Michigan reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney by 10 points, 47% to 37%. Based on polling and historical models PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Strong Democratic.

Virginia: Moves From Leaning Democratic To Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Sep 12, 2012 at 9:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by  Gravis Marketing in Virgina reports that Mitt Romney now leads President Obama by +5%--49% to 44%. As a result of this and other polling and historical models, PollTrack moves the state from Leaning Democratic to Too-Close-To-Call on Today's Map.

Gallup: Americans Approved Of Democratic Convention Speakers

Posted Sep 11, 2012 at 9:40 AM by Maurice Berger

One reason why the Democratic convention may have helped President Obama's case with American voters: they have high marks for its speakers. In a pre-convention poll, a USA Today/Gallup poll reported that "three of the four principal Democrats the party is showcasing this week in prime-time Democratic convention speeches in Charlotte, N.C., are generally in good favor with the majority of Americans. According to [the poll]  conducted prior to both parties' conventions, former President Bill Clinton, first lady Michelle Obama, and President Barack Obama all have broad appeal, while Vice President Joe Biden receives mixed reviews." Here is Gallup's chart:

Leading Democrats' Favorable Ratings, August 2012

Gallup: No Bounce For Romney

Posted Sep 10, 2012 at 9:19 AM by Maurice Berger

Another analysis of the post-GOP convention bounce, this time from Gallup, reports that Mitt Romney received a negative "bounce from last week's Republican National Convention, as the 46% of registered voters who supported him in Aug. 31-Sept. 3 Daily tracking is essentially the same as the 47% who preferred him in Aug. 24-27 tracking, the four days preceding the convention." Here is Gallup's chart:

Gallup Daily Tracking of Voter Presidential Preferences Before and After Aug. 28-30 Republican National Convention

Romney's Convention: A Negative Bounce

Posted Sep 08, 2012 at 2:00 PM by Maurice Berger

In news that is virtually unprecedented for a major party candidate coming out of a convention, the Princeton Election Consortium reports that Mitt Romney actually received a negative bounce. The PEC observes: "Indeed, it appears that the race shifted towards President Obama by 6-15 EV, or about 1.0% of Popular Vote Meta-Margin. From an analytical perspective, a negative bounce is quite remarkable because all the talk in recent weeks has been of bounces being smaller or zero, but always in the hosting party's favor. It is all the more remarkable because of the relatively small number of state polls over the last week, so that the Meta-analysis's inputs have not fully turned over... So the negative bounce may be larger than what is shown in the graph. Such an event would have been missed in past years (and even this year) because national polls don't have the best resolution."

A Bounce For The Democrats?

Posted Sep 07, 2012 at 3:48 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack is seeing the beginning of what may be a discernible post-convention "bounce" for the Democrats. With Romney's bounce receding in the GOP-tilted Rasmussen tracking poll (the challenger's 4% lead is now down to 1%) and Gallup tracking (already having shown no bounce for Romney) now reporting that President Obama is up by +3%, it appears there is already an uptick in support for the Democratic ticket. Even more dramatic is Obama's approval number in Gallup: he has gone from a net negative earlier in the week to a net positive of +9--with his approval rating now at 52%. What is most significant is that these numbers do not reflect the full brunt of the Democratic convention, which only ended yesterday. With a seven-day rolling average, the convention only partially registers in Gallup's numbers. Even Rasmussen's three-day average is based on interviews conducted largely before the president's speech. Stay tuned.

Declining Interest In Last Week's GOP Convention

Posted Sep 07, 2012 at 10:06 AM by Maurice Berger

Another indication of the public's declining interest in last week's GOP convention: a survey by Pew Research released this week reports that Americans paid far less attention to this year's Republican convention than it did four years ago. Just 37% say they watched all or some of the Republican convention, down from 56% in 2008. PollTrack will be tracking the public response to the Democratic convention to see if this decline goes beyond partisan lines. Another problem for the GOP nominee, Mitt Romney: 20% of those who tuned into the convention cited Clint Eastwood's speech as the convention highlight, while just 17% named the nominee's speech.

Small Increase in Romney's Likeability Numbers

Posted Sep 06, 2012 at 8:38 AM by Maurice Berger

One post-convention polling detail that should modestly boost the Romney campaign: On Saturday, the Reuters/Ipsos poll reported that Mitt Romney emerged out of the Tampa with a slight improvement in his image among voters. 31% of registered voters found Romney "likeable", up from 26% when the convention started. By contrast, President Obama's likeability rating, according to Ipsos, is 48%, suggesting a deeper problem for the GOP challenger.

Missouri: Strong Romney Lead

Posted Sep 05, 2012 at 9:26 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling suggest that Missouri continues to look like a tough sell for Barack Obama. The poll reports a strong +12% lead for Romney in the state, 53% to 41%.PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Leaning Republican to Safe Republican.

Obama With Small Lead In Michigan

Posted Sep 04, 2012 at 11:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by EPIC-MRA in Michigan reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by a modest three points, 49% to 46%. PollTrack continues to rate the state Leaning Democrat on Today's Map.

One Reasson For Romney's Shallow Bounce

Posted Sep 03, 2012 at 1:07 PM by Maurice Berger

One reason for Mitt Romney's lack of a discernible bounce after the GOP convention may well be the relative unpopularity of his convention speech. According to a new poll by Gallup just 38% rated Mitt Romney's speech as excellent or good and 16% rated it as poor or terrible. Just as Romney's post-convention bounce is among the lowest of any challenger since 1960, he also receives the lowest rating of a convention speech since GOP challenger Bob Dole's speech in 1996.

Very Modest Bounce For Romney

Posted Sep 02, 2012 at 10:39 AM by Maurice Berger

With several polls showing little movement in the presidential race--the sole exception at this point, Rasmussen, has a slight, overall GOP-tilt, discernible both in this election relative to other polls and in 2008--it appears that Mitt Romney's convention bounce is very modest (or, according to Gallup and Reuter's-Ipsos, non-existent). One problem for Romney is suggested by numbers released by Variety on Sunday: a considerable drop from 2008 for TV viewers who watched the GOP standard bearer's acceptance speech. According to Variety, Nielsen data shows Romney's speech averaged 30.3 million viewers across nine networks, about 22% short of the nearly 39 million who tuned in for Sen. John McCain four years ago. These numbers suggest one of two possibilities: a specific decline in voter interest in the presidential race (or the GOP presidential race) or a general decline in viewer interest for convention coverage.

PollTrack will compare GOP convention viewership with that for the Democrats, but suspects that these numbers will also be lower. As for Gallup, their tracking poll as of Sunday afternoon reports a virtually tied race (with Obama leading by +1%), exactly where the race was before the start of the GOP convention. The Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll reports a similar lack of movement by the convention's end, with Obama regaining a +1% lead. A polling average of the three tracking polls (Gallup, Rasmussen, and Ipsos) relative to where the race was before the start of the GOP convention, suggests an overall bounce for Romney of +1.3%, one of the lowest post conventions bounces for a challenger in recent years.