Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

National Average: Obama-47.7% to Romney-47.3%

Posted Oct 31, 2012 at 3:21 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 4:00 PM EDT this afternoon shows the race little changed. Once again, a word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy, thus making it more difficult to access the current state of the race. President Obama now stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.8% and Romney-47.4%

Posted Oct 31, 2012 at 9:23 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EDT this morning continues to show a very close race. A continued word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy. Thus, we may need to wait a few days for a more accurate picture of the current state of the race. President Obama now stands at 47.8% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for an Obama lead of +0.4%.

Today's Map: FL Moves From Leaning Republican to TCTC

Posted Oct 31, 2012 at 8:50 AM by Maurice Berger

With half of this weeks polls in Florida showing President Obama slightly head--and the PollTrack average now a virtual tie--the state moves on Today's Map from Leaning Republican to To-Close-To-Call. PollTrack notes that Mitt Romney's electoral math just got a lot harder. A close race in states like North Carolina and Virginia, and with Obama holding firm in Ohio, it appears that in the Electoral College, at least, the president's path to victory has grown modestly, but clearly, stronger. Stay tuned.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.9% and Romney-47.6%

Posted Oct 30, 2012 at 1:59 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 3:00 PM EDT this afternoon suggests that the race remains very close. A continued word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy. Thus, we may need to wait a few days for a more accurate picture of the current state of the race. President Obama now stands at 47.9% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

National Polling Average: Obama-48.0% and Romney-47.6%

Posted Oct 30, 2012 at 10:01 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 11:00 AM EDT this morning suggests that the race remains very close. A word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy. Thus, we may need to wait a few days for additional polling. President Obama now stands at 48.0% and Mitt Romney at 47.6%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.6% and Romney-47.2%

Posted Oct 29, 2012 at 4:03 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 5:00 PM EDT this afternoon suggests a race that remains very close. President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.2%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.7% and Romney-46.9%

Posted Oct 29, 2012 at 8:56 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 9:30 AM EDT this morning continues to suggest a slight improvement for the president as well as a modest degree of momentum. President Obama now stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 46.9%--for a lead for Obama of +0.8%.

In the all-important race for Electoral Votes, the president maintains an advantage. Right now, PollTrack's aggregate poll numbers on Today's Map suggests a lead for Obama of 290 to Romney's 235. Virginia remains Too-Close-To-Call at 13 EVs.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.6% and Romney-46.9%

Posted Oct 28, 2012 at 3:03 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 4:00 PM EDT today suggests a slight improvement in the president's standing and a degree of momentum, as well. It is unclear whether this is the result of statistical noise--several polls indicated improved standing for Obama--or a durable momentum as we move towards Election Day. President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 46.9%--for a lead for Obama of +0.7%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.5% and Romney-47.3%

Posted Oct 28, 2012 at 9:09 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EDT today remain unchanged from yesterday afternoon. President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.5% and Romney-47.3%

Posted Oct 27, 2012 at 3:27 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 3:00 PM today EDT continues to report a virtual tie. President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.5% and Romney-47.4%

Posted Oct 27, 2012 at 12:43 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of noon today EDT continues to report a virtual tie. President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.1%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.6% and Romney-47.3%

Posted Oct 26, 2012 at 5:15 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.3%.

Colorado Now Leaning Democratic

Posted Oct 26, 2012 at 4:17 PM by Maurice Berger

With a number of polls out over the past few days in Colorado, PollTrack moves the state from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic. Obama now leads in 290 Electoral Votes, Romney in 235, and 13 EVs (Virginia) remain Too-Close-To-Call (VA moved back from Leaning Democratic to TCTC late last night based on two days of polling suggesting that the race is virtually tied in the state).

National Aggregate: Unchanged

Posted Oct 26, 2012 at 9:55 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's morning aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race remains unchanged from lat night's report. The aggregate continues to report a virtual tie. As of 9:00 AM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.1%.

 

National Average: Obama-47.5% and Romney-47.4%

Posted Oct 25, 2012 at 6:01 PM by Maurice Berger

There is virtually no change this evening from PollTrack's morning aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race. The aggregate continues to report a virtual tie. As of 6:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.1%.

National Tracking Average: Obama-47.5% and Romney-47.3%

Posted Oct 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's morning aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 10:00 AM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.

National Average: Obama-47.6% to Romney 47.4%

Posted Oct 24, 2012 at 5:01 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.

Today's Map reports an improved standing for President Obama in the race for Electoral Votes. With PollTrack's moving of Virginia from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic on Today's Map, Obama's count inched up to 294 EVs. Romney is holding steady at 235. Colorado remains the one state that is Too-Close-To-Call.

 

 

Virginia Moves From Too-Close-To-Call To Leaning Democratic

Posted Oct 24, 2012 at 1:36 PM by Maurice Berger

Based on analysis of recent voting patterns in the state and two new polls that report that President Obama is now leading in Virginia--Obama 50%, Romney 43%, according to Old Dominion University; Obama 49%, Romney 46% in a new (Newsmax/Zogby survey--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic.

Check Back Early Evening EDT For Second Wave National Average

Posted Oct 24, 2012 at 1:17 PM by Maurice Berger

Check back with PollTrack later today for the second wave of  national presidential race aggregate of polls.

Morning National Polling Average Unchanged

Posted Oct 24, 2012 at 10:16 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's morning aggregate of national polls in the presidential race remains unchanged. As of 10:00 AM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--a perfect tie. 

National Polling Average: Obama-47.5% to Romney-47.5%

Posted Oct 23, 2012 at 5:19 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's second wave aggregate of today's national polls in the presidential race continues to report an extremely close race. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a perfect tie. PollTrack continues to believe that the fundamentals of the race favor the president, who now stands at 281 electoral votes to Romney's 235 EVs on Today's Map. 22 EVs remain too-close-to-call.

Second Wave of PollTrack National Tracking Later Today

Posted Oct 23, 2012 at 2:05 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack will post its second wave of daily tracking of the national presidential polls later today. Check back late this afternoon, EDT for today's second wave results.

PollTrack National Aggregate: All Tied Up

Posted Oct 23, 2012 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 9:00 AM this morning, President Obama now stands at 47.3% and Mitt Romney at 47.1%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%. Return early evening for our national average with today's tracking polls included.

PollTrack National Average: The Race Is Now Tied

Posted Oct 22, 2012 at 5:35 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a virtual tie. Today was a busy day for polls, so the new average is based on a broad array of data. President Obama now stands at 47.2% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Romney of +0.1%. While momentum has shifted to Romney over the past twenty-four hours (he has made up a +0.9% deficit), the race has grown even cloudier, locked as it is in a virtual deadlock.

While the fundamentals of the electoral college still favor the president (he leads in states totaling more than 270 EVs), Romney's ascendance over the past three weeks has been rapid, definitive, and--according to the latest polls--durable (not to mention unprecedented). Will tonight's debate make a difference, affording one candidate or the other forward momentum? Will last minute events--and the candidate's response to them--break the tie? Or will Election Day be a squeaker? For both our Republican and Democratic readers, PollTrack is as nervous as you are!

PollTrack National Aggregate: Obama Up +0.9%

Posted Oct 21, 2012 at 6:23 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a (very slightly) increased lead for President Obama. As of 6:00 PM this afternoon, Obama is at 47.4% and Mitt Romney is at 46.5%--for an aggregate lead for the president of +0.9%.

New Polling Average This Evening

Posted Oct 21, 2012 at 11:19 AM by Maurice Berger

Stay tuned for today's national presidential polling average later today. 

President Up In PollTrack's National Poll Average

Posted Oct 20, 2012 at 5:13 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a (very slightly) increased lead for President Obama. As of 5:00 PM this afternoon, Obama is at 47.6% and Mitt Romney is at 46.5%--for an aggregate lead for the president of +1.1%. As important, across the swing state polls, the president appears to continue to be reversing some, but not all of Romney's gains over the past three weeks, and continues to lead by varying margins in all but three of the swing states, Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado, where Romney leads.

New Polling Average Later Today!

Posted Oct 20, 2012 at 1:31 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack is awaiting today's tracking polls. Check back in late afternoon for an up-to-the-minute accounting of where the national numbers stand.

Is The Momentum Returning To Obama?

Posted Oct 19, 2012 at 4:11 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a lead for President Obama. As of 4:00 PM this afternoon, Obama is at 47.4% and Mitt Romney is at 46.5%--for an aggregate lead for the president of +0.9%. More important, across the polls, the president appears to have a slight momentum heading into Monday's debate as he overtakes or ties Romney's lead in all of the surveys (with the exception of Gallup).

New Polling Average This Afternoon

Posted Oct 19, 2012 at 1:18 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack is awaiting a slew of national tracking polls. Check back in late afternoon for an up-to-the-minute accounting of where the national numbers stand. 

Romney Retakes National Lead

Posted Oct 18, 2012 at 7:22 PM by Maurice Berger

The PollTrack average as as 7:00 PM is Mitt Romney 47.9% and President Obama 47.3% for an aggregate national lead of +0.6% for Romney.

Obama Up 1.2% In National Average

Posted Oct 18, 2012 at 7:38 AM by Maurice Berger

The PollTrack average as as 7:00 am this morning is Obama 47.8% and Mitt Romney 46.6% for an aggregate national lead of +1.2% for the president.

Obama Up Slightly In PollTrack's National Average

Posted Oct 17, 2012 at 5:03 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's average of national polls as of 5:00 PM EDT continues to show President Obama with a very slight lead over his GOP challenger Mitt Romney. The aggregate numbers are 47.8% for Obama, 47.2% for Romney, giving the president an overall lead of +0.6%--numbers pointing to a race that is virtually tied nationally.

Debate Snap Polls: Obama Won

Posted Oct 17, 2012 at 9:53 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is the verdict of three snap polls on last night's debate: these so-called instant polls all report that President Obama--to one extent or another--won last night's debate: CBS News had Obama besting Romney 37% to 30%, at CNN Obama came out ahead at 46% to 39%, and a Lake Research poll in the battleground states found Obama up 53% to 38%. Keep in mind that voter perceptions of debates often shift as succeeding news cycles parse the outcome. In the first presidential debate and vice-presidential debate, initial results reported a closer result, while subsequent polling in the days following reported far bigger leads for both Mitt Romney and Joe Biden. Will Obama's edge expand or decline? Stay tuned.

Pew: Who Will Do Better In Tonight's Debate?

Posted Oct 16, 2012 at 9:37 AM by Maurice Berger

Who will do better in tonight's debate? That's the question asked by a new Pew Research poll. 41% of voters surveyed say President Obama will do better, while 37% expect Mitt Romney to prevail. Two weeks ago, voters expected Obama to win by a 51% to 29% margin--an expectations game that further hurt him in the wake of a poor debate performance. Who will these lower expectations help or hurt? Stay tuned.

Obama Retakes The Lead Nationally

Posted Oct 15, 2012 at 7:04 PM by Maurice Berger

After a week of consistent leads in PollTrack's aggregate poll numbers (by up to +2%), Mitt Romney has as of this evening dropped behind President Obama. The race nationally now stands at Obama 48.1% and Romney 47.0. PollTrack believes that with the race now virtually tied, momentum coming out of tomorrow's debate could be crucial. Still, with improved national and swing state polling, the president goes into tomorrow's debate as the (very slight) favorite according to PollTrack's electoral analysis.

One note of caution for both sides: it is very unusual to see the lead flip back and forth this late in a presidential cycle, indicating a very soft core of still "persuadable" voters and the potential for events on the ground to influence them. With each side firmly in control of its base, the potential for a close race or a race decided by events (or gaffes) beyond the control of the campaigns remains a reality. While the fundamentals of the race--both nationally and electorally--have and continue to favor president Obama, the potential for a late-in-the-game surprise could afford Romney a boost or push the president further forward.

Obama Inching Back Up?

Posted Oct 15, 2012 at 9:30 AM by Maurice Berger

After ten days in which Mitt Romney's support among likely voters has steadily risen and President Obama's have steadily declined, PollTrack's averaging of all national survey's polling voter sentiment over the past seven days reports a tightening of the race. Our aggregate of all polls has the race exactly tied, with both Romney and Obama at 47.2% each. This is good news for the president, indicating that the support he lost may be starting to return while's Romney may be declining.

A few more days of polling should be more definitive. Tuesday night's debate could significantly alter the dynamic of the race, either improving Romney's standing and giving him renewed momentum (which may have been damped by last week's vice-presidential debate) or helping President Obama to recoup a lead lost in the ten days following the first presidential debate. We are at a key point in the race, so check back this week for polling updates.

Is Romney's Momentum Slowing?

Posted Oct 12, 2012 at 9:30 AM by Maurice Berger

With yesterday's  Rasmussen survey showing the President with a +1% lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney--the poll normally has a slight GOP tilt--PollTrack wonders if Romney's momentum from last week's debate is slowing down. Other trackers have also showed movement back towards Obama, but with Romney holding onto an aggregate lead of less than 1%.

Swing state polls have been fairly erratic, with some polls showing a substantial lead for one candidate or another (from +6% for Obama in Ohio to +7% for Romney in Florida) to a virtual tie. In many instances, polls are alternately reporting leads for both candidates in the same state (most polls show Obama leading in Ohio, others give Romney a slight lead; in Florida, it is just the opposite, with one poll showing Romney up by +7%, another Obama up by +4%.

What these numbers suggest is a race in flux, a degree of statistical noise due to a major event in this past week's news cycle (the president's poor debate performance) and a shifting enthusiasm gap, with GOP voters now more revved up than Democrats. Has Vice-President Biden's feisty debate performance fired up unhappy Democrats? Has Rep. Ryan's cool resolve added to the sense of a GOP ticket on the rise? Did either performance move the needle with independent voters? A few more days of polling should give us a better sense of the direction of the race leading into next week's presidential debate in New York.

The Election Draws Close, With Obama Holding A Slight Advantage

Posted Oct 11, 2012 at 10:09 AM by Maurice Berger

With a new crop of polls in Ohio suggesting that President Obama is the slight favorite there--and polls in traditional Democratic states like Wisconsin and New Hampshire reporting a much closer race, but with a Democratic advantage--PollTrack believes that the fundamentals of the presidential race still point to an Obama victory. But with other swings states drawing very close, e.g. Colorado, Virginia, and Florida, where some polls now show Mitt Romney in the lead, PollTrack also believes that the race has grown, much close, volatile, and less predictable. In other words, the final month of Election 2012 begins with uncertainty rather than clarity.

The forthcoming debates--and the possibility of events in forthcoming news cycles helping or hurting either candidate--will determine whether the race will be won by Obama or Romney by a comfortable margin or a razor thin one. Still, the president continues to maintain a larger base of electoral votes than Romney. On the other hand, a wave of support towards the GOP candidate--with so many swing states now virtually tied--could tip the balance in his favor. Or, of course, the opposite might come to pass. Stay tuned, loyal readers. This is going to get interesting.

Florida Leaning GOP and Virginia Now Too-Close-To-Call on Today's Map

Posted Oct 10, 2012 at 8:39 AM by Maurice Berger

With polls consistently reporting that the race in Virginia and Florida are tightening considerably, PollTrack moves Virginia on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Too-Close-To-Call and Florida from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning GOP.

Tightening National Race?

Posted Oct 09, 2012 at 8:02 AM by Maurice Berger

Based on national polling out today--a full 5-days after the first presidential debate--PollTrack is seeing a discernible tightening of the race. We are waiting for additional polling in the swing states (due over the next few days) to better understand whether the tightening of the race is statistical noise (or simple fall out of the first debate) or a genuine drop in the president's support and/or an increase in Mitt Romney's support. PollTrack suspects at this point that the tightening may be real, and possibly durable. As such, tightening of swing state polls has resulted in substantive race ratings in Colorado, Iowa, Florida and Virginia, now rated as Too-Close-To-Call on Today's  Map--a dynamic swing from a week ago when all were rated Leaning Democratic.

Will The Debate Matter?

Posted Oct 05, 2012 at 9:08 AM by Maurice Berger

While Mitt Romney's debate performance received positive reviews in the media--and the president's quite negative--it may be difficult to discern the long-term implications of the candidates' first dust up. For one, more potential voters watched this debate than the first one in 2008 (58 million in 2012 as opposed to 52.4 million four years earlier." Yet, while PollTrack expects at least a modest improvement in Romney's standing over the next few days, it doubts that the president's overall support will decline substantially.

Historically, however, incumbent president's tend not to do well in their first debate (and most go on to win reelection). Equally significant, few debates have actually altered the overall dynamic of the election cycle: the candidate who is ahead coming into the first debate usually wins (only Al Gore did not, though he did, in fact, win the popular vote). But there are always exceptions. So stay tuned.

Obama Holds A Whopping +50% Lead Among Hispanic Voters

Posted Oct 04, 2012 at 9:17 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll has bad news for the Romney campaign: the survey, by NBC News/WSJ/Telemundo, reports that President Obama now leads Romney among Hispanic voters by a whopping +50% margin--70% to 20%. The survey's background analysis continues: "It appears that Romney's comments that 47% of Americans are dependent on government took a toll on his standing with Hispanics. Romney's favorability score has cratered with the group, with his negatives hitting an all-time high. Fifty-three percent now say they have a negative impression of Romney and just 23% say they have a positive one. That 30-point difference is 17 points worse than in August."

Traditionally, it has been extremely difficult in recent years for GOP candidates for president to win without picking off a sizable amount of the Hispanic vote, in the 35% to 45% range. Not only does Romney poor standing hurt him in the national popular vote, it also makes it very difficult to win purple states with large Hispanic populations, most notably Colorado, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia. Stay tuned.

Virginia Continues To Lean Democratic On Today's Map

Posted Oct 03, 2012 at 8:59 AM by Maurice Berger

Several polls in Virginia report that President Obama continues to lead his GOP challenger Mitt Romney, but by varying margins. One poll, by Roanoke College, for example, reports a significant Democratic advantage, Obama 47%, Romney 39. Another, by ARG, reports only a modest lead of +2%, 49% to 47% (though it has Obama near the 50% mark). PollTrack continues to rate the state on Today's Map Leaning Democratic

Obama Holds Massive Lead Among Women

Posted Oct 02, 2012 at 9:41 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey sponsored by the YWCA, President Obama now holds a huge, +18% lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney among women, 49% to 31%. Similarly, a Quinnipiac poll released this morning reports that the president holds a huge +18% lead among women, 56% to 38%. (The poll reports that Romney holds a much smaller lead among men, 53% to 42%.). If
this lead holds, it may well be impossible, from a demographic standpoint, for Romney to cobble together enough votes from men and other groups hospitable to the Republican Party to prevail in this November's election.

Des Moines Register Poll: Obama Up By +4% In Iowa

Posted Oct 01, 2012 at 9:46 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll--this one from the well-regarded and traditionally very accurate Des Moines Register, which shows the president up by +4%, Obama 49%, Romney 45%--supports PollTrack's decision to move Iowa on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic