Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Americans Evenly Split On Legalizing Marijuana Use

Posted Nov 30, 2012 at 11:59 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by CBS News reports that Americans are evenly split--47% to 47%--on the question of whether marijuana use should be legal. As CBS News observes: "This shift in public opinion was seen at the ballot box this month, when Colorado and Washington became the first states in the nation to approve of recreational marijuana use among adults over the age of 21. Marijuana use of any kind, however, is still illegal under federal law. It's unclear at this point how the Obama administration intends to respond."

How Did Obama Capaign Gauge The Mood Of The Electorate?

Posted Nov 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is a fascinating analysis of how the Obama campaign gauged its relative strengths and weakness through internal polls. Mark Blumenthal focuses on the Obama campaign polling operation and notes they their view of the state of the race was local rather than national. Rather than taking nation-wide polls, the campaign
limited its surveys to 11 battleground states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin), conducting them at regular intervals throughout the campaign. Campaign manager Jim Messina says this gave him a deeper understanding of "how we were doing, where we were doing it, where we were moving -- which is why I knew that most of the public polls you were seeing were completely ridiculous."

Public Disapproves of Adminstration's Handling of Benghazi, Sees No Cover Up.

Posted Nov 28, 2012 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A new CNN/ORC poll reports that 54% disapprove of the White House's handling of the attacks in Benghazi. But an equal majority, 54%, also do not believe that the administration purposefully misled the public.

GOP Faces Demographic Problem In The South

Posted Nov 27, 2012 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

According to the Washington Post, the GOP is facing demographic challenges not just with Hispanic voters, but also the decline of white and the ascendency of black voters in the South: "The South [tells] a newer and more surprising story: The nation’s first black president finished more strongly in the region than any other Democratic nominee in three decades, underscoring a fresh challenge for Republicans who rely on Southern whites as their base of national support . . .

. . . Obama won Virginia and Florida and narrowly missed victory in North Carolina. But he also polled as well in Georgia as any Democrat since Jimmy Carter, grabbed 44 percent of the vote in deep-red South Carolina and just under that in Mississippi — despite doing no substantive campaigning in any of those states . . .

. . . Much of the post-election analysis has focused on the demographic crisis facing Republicans among Hispanic voters, particularly in Texas. But the results across other parts of the South, where Latinos remain a single-digit minority, point to separate trends among blacks and whites that may also have big implications for the GOP’s future."

 

More Voters View Gen. Patraeus Favorably Than Not

Posted Nov 26, 2012 at 9:17 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll reports that while Gen. David Petraeus' popularity "has dropped since the scandal that's forced him from directorship of the CIA, more Americans see him favorably than unfavorably": 45% see Petraeus favorably overall, while 32% see him unfavorably.

PollTrack Back On Monday!

Posted Nov 23, 2012 at 9:31 PM by Maurice Berger

We'll be back on Monday with daily electoral analysis! Enjoy your Thanksgiving weekend. 

PollTrack 2013 Election Coverage: New Jersey Governor

Posted Nov 20, 2012 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

One hot election that PollTrack will be analyzing next year: The New Jersey gubernatorial race. The race may be both lively and consequential, pitting two of the state's most popular politicians against each other, incumbent GOP governor, Chris Christie and Democratic Newark Mayor Corey Booker. Here a teaser from the New Republic: "That perhaps the two most compelling politicians in America hail from the same state is dramatic enough. Now consider that soon they may be running against each other. . . . Visions of a Booker-Christie match-up make political junkies weak at the knees... There are no nationwide campaigns next year, and just two gubernatorial seats are up for grabs, so this race--hypothetical though it remains--would have America's attention. Money would flow: Both are beloved by Wall Street and, having campaigned on other candidates' behalf, are loaded with IOUs from political fundraisers around the country. Coverage would be nonstop: Both are extraordinarily talented at handling the microphone and delivering social media-optimized sound bites. And the stakes would be high: Both have designs on the presidency, and are aware of the benefits of handing the other a premature political death." PollTrack adds that the race may also serve as an early moratorium on President Obama's second term much as this year's other big race: Governor of Virginia.

GOP Frontrunner: 2016?

Posted Nov 16, 2012 at 9:36 AM by Maurice Berger

GOP Frontrunner: 2016? Sounds a bit early to be thinking about this, given the very recent conclusion of Election 2012. But that doesn't stop Republican and Democratic insiders from thinking about the next presidential election. A survey by National Journal Political Insiders reports that Republican and Democratic party operatives and observers have differing views when it comes to the question of who might be the strongest Republican to run for president in 2016. GOP insiders: Marco Rubio 40%, Jeb Bush 27%, Paul Ryan 9%, Rick Santorum 9%, Chris Christie 8%. Democratic insiders: Jeb Bush 47%, Chris Christie 28%, Marco Rubio 13%. 

Abortion Became A Central Issue In Some US Senate Races

Posted Nov 15, 2012 at 9:09 AM by Maurice Berger

CNN's analysis of exit polls in the state of Missouri conclude that abortion played an important role in Democratic US Senator Claire McCaskill''s ability to overcome her republican challenger, even though she entered the race as a clear underdog. CNN writes, "in Missouri, Republican Senate candidate Rep. Todd Akin said in a local news interview that women have biological ways to avoid pregnancy after a "legitimate rape." Tuesday's early exit polls show 51% of Missouri voters say they believe abortion should be legal all or most of the time. Of those voters, exit polls show 76% supporting Akin's opponent, Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill while 19% voted for Akin. Forty-seven percent of Missouri's voters say abortion should be illegal. Exit polls show Akin takes 67% of this group's votes while 27% of people who think abortion should be illegal supported Sen. McCaskill."

Rasmussen Trys To Explain Itself

Posted Nov 14, 2012 at 8:14 AM by Maurice Berger

Rasmussen Reports had Mitt Romney leading President Obama for most of the last month of the election--and by one-point, in its final tally--and also picked the winner in just three of nine swing states. In an attempt to explain away the problem--only two pollsters out of 30, the other being Gallup, had Romney ahead in their final survey--blamed it on demographics: "A preliminary review indicates that one reason for this is that we underestimated the minority share of the electorate. In 2008, 26% of voters were non-white. We expected that to remain relatively constant. However, in 2012, 28% of voters were non-white. That was exactly the share projected by the Obama campaign. It is not clear at the moment whether minority turnout increased nationally, white turnout decreased, or if it was a combination of both. The increase in minority turnout has a significant impact on the final projections since Romney won nearly 60% of white votes while Obama won an even larger share of the minority vote . . . Another factor may be related to the generation gap. It is interesting to note that the share of seniors who showed up to vote was down slightly from 2008 while the number of young voters was up slightly."

PollTrack wonders why many other pollsters, from the more traditional phone/cellphone poll of ABC News to the online Google Consumer Survey, were far more accurate in assessing the demographic makeup of the electorate, including party affiliation (Both ABC and Google came very close to the actual outcome). Why did so many other pollsters get it right (or at least come close)? If President Obama wins by +3%, as appears to be the case with the inclusion of late ballots from California and Ohio (among other states), then Rasmussen (and Gallup) will have been off by +4% in their prediction of the outcome of election 2012, just hours before Americans began voting. This is a very large miss for two well-respected polling organizations.

 

The GOP Lost On Issues, Too

Posted Nov 13, 2012 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger

While much has been made of shifting demographics in this election cycle--and it is clear from exit polling that an uptick in African-American, Hispanic, and young voters and a decrease in white participation from 2008 made a big difference in the outcome--it is easy to forget that on the issues, the GOP lost as well. As NBC News' Mark Murray, reports: "For years, the GOP has branded itself as the party that supports low taxes (especially for the wealthy) and opposes abortion and gay marriage. But according to the exit polls from last week's presidential election, a combined 60% said that tax rates should increase either for everyone or for those making more than $250,000. Just 35% said the tax rates shouldn't increase for anyone."

Murray continues: "What's more, 59% said that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. And by a 49%-to-46% margin, voters said that their states should legally recognize same-sex marriage."

A Decline In White Voters Helped Obama Win

Posted Nov 12, 2012 at 9:16 AM by Maurice Berger

In "The Case of the Missing White Voters, Sean Trende writes: "For Republicans, that despair now comes from an electorate that seems to have undergone a sea change. In the 2008 final exit polls (unavailable online), the electorate was 75 percent white, 12.2 percent African-American, 8.4 percent Latino, with 4.5 percent distributed to other ethnicities. We’ll have to wait for this year’s absolute final exit polls to come in to know the exact estimate of the composition this time, but right now it appears to be pegged at about 72 percent white, 13 percent black, 10 percent Latino and 5 percent 'other.'” PollTrack points out that a +3% drop off of such a large Demographic was very significant in this election, representing one of the most important factors in Obama's victory.

Obama Wins Florida

Posted Nov 09, 2012 at 10:08 AM by Maurice Berger

Our latest projection of votes still outstanding in Florida suggest that President Obama will win the state by slightly under a percentage point.

Florida Still Out

Posted Nov 08, 2012 at 10:12 AM by Maurice Berger

We still await final results from Florida. The race is still razor close. Provisional ballots are slowly being counted. PollTrack called 50 out of 50 States (that includes DC's 3-EVs) correctly. Will Florida make it 51? Right now, it looks like Obama may squeak out a victory there. Stay tuned. 

How Did PollTrack Do?

Posted Nov 07, 2012 at 2:53 PM by Maurice Berger

How did PollTrack do, in terms of correctly predicting the outcome of Election 2012?

Quite well.

As for our Presidential Maps, we correctly predicted the outcome of all of the 50 races decided as of this morning. We await word in Florida, the one state that PollTrack noted--on Monday evening--was very difficult to call.

As for our US Senate Race Chart, PollTrack predicted 32 out of 33 races.

REVISED Electoral Count: 303-Obama to 206-Romney 29-Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Nov 07, 2012 at 9:31 AM by Maurice Berger

Above is the revised electoral count as of 9:30 AM this morning.

Florida Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Nov 07, 2012 at 9:29 AM by Maurice Berger

AS it turns out, the only state that PollTrack "missed" turns out to be Too-Close-To-Call as of this morning. On Monday evening, the state appeared so close in aggregate polling that it was the last to be called by this website (late-Monday evening). PollTrack called it for Romney based on last-minute polling. In which column will it wind up? Stay tuned.

PollTrack Electoral Projection: 332-Obama to 206-Romney

Posted Nov 07, 2012 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger

Florida was the final state called last night by PollTrack. Florida was the most difficult call for PollTrack. And out of 51 Electoral Races--from Washington, D.C. to Alaska--Florida is the only race called incorrectly by PollTrack.

50 out of 51 races. Not bad.

Thank you, loyal supporters of PollTrack! And thank you for your patience through today's server problems.

Until tomorrow morning.

PollTrack Electoral Projection: 303-Obama to 206-Romney

Posted Nov 07, 2012 at 12:31 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama is now projected to win in Virginia.

PollTrack Electoral Vote Projection: 290-Obama to 206-Romney

Posted Nov 07, 2012 at 12:21 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama wins Colorado. At 290 EVs, he wins the election even without Ohio's 18 electoral votes. 

PollTrack Electoral Projection: 281-Obama to 206-Romney

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 11:51 PM by Maurice Berger

President Obama wins Nevada. 

PollTrack Electoral Projection: 275-Obama to 206-Romney

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 11:40 PM by Maurice Berger

Mitt Romney wins North Carolina.  

President Obama Wins Reelection

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 11:21 PM by Maurice Berger

With Ohio. Congratulations, President Obama!

PollTrack Electoral Projection: 257-Obama 191-Romney

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 11:17 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack Electoral Projection: Obama-257 Romney-180

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 11:13 PM by Maurice Berger

With Obama wins in Iowa and New Mexico, the road to victory for Romney is now just a step short of impossible.  

Colorado: Slight Advantage For Obama

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 10:44 PM by Maurice Berger

Key precincts in Colorado suggest a slight advantage for President Obama, counties where he is equaling or improving his numbers from 2008.

Arizona Is Leaning Romney

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 10:31 PM by Maurice Berger

A state he is expected to carry.

Nevada Is Leaning Obama

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 10:30 PM by Maurice Berger

Decidedly. The math continues to suggest a difficult road ahead for Romney.

With Democrats In Missouri and Ohio Winning

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 10:18 PM by Maurice Berger

. . . their US Senate seats, it is now certain that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate. 

PollTrack Projected Electoral Count: Obama-251 Romney-180

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 10:08 PM by Maurice Berger

The math is growing much more difficult for Romney . . .

With New Hampshire Going To President Obama . . .

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 10:07 PM by Maurice Berger

. . . the electoral math just got a bit steeper for Mitt Romney. With Florida looking increasingly difficult for Romney--the vast majority of uncounted votes are in heavily Democratic counties--we're at the point where it may be mathematically impossible for the GOP nominee to reach the major number of 270.

PollTrack Projected Electoral Count: Obama-247 Romney-180

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:59 PM by Maurice Berger

As of 10:00, the electoral advantage is with the president, 247 to 180.

Ohio Leaning Towards The President

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:54 PM by Maurice Berger

Exit polling and results from key precincts suggests that Ohio is leaning towards President Obama.

Obama Wins Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:42 PM by Maurice Berger

So much for Mitt Romney late strategy of vying for the traditionally Democratic states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, both states now called for President Obama by NBC. (PA was just called by CNN).

Florida Demographics: Democratic Precincts Under Reporting

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:22 PM by Maurice Berger

Florida vote totals now stand at 50% to 50%. But as John King points out on CNN, the vast majority of precincts that have not yet reported are in the Democratic strongholds of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. Might PollTrack have gotten Florida wrong? Time will tell.

Why Michigan Matters

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:09 PM by Maurice Berger

That Michigan wall called quickly--suggesting a substantial lead in the state for Obama--matters. Given the voting pattern of neighboring states, each reflective of a regional wave of demographics, voting patterns, and history, a big win in Michigan bodes well for Obama in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and even, to an extent, Ohio. This is the first sign that the president's "Midwest firewall" may, in fact, be holding.

A Stronger Strategic Position for Obama?

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 8:47 PM by Maurice Berger

Between key precincts and the first wave of exit polling (thus incomplete), PollTrack believes that President Obama is in a better strategic position than Mitt Romney to reach 270 Electoral Votes. Still, it will be a long night, before actual votes can confirm or deny this.

Another Close State: Virginia

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 8:35 PM by Maurice Berger

With Romney doing better than McCain in key GOP-leaning precincts and Obama matching his 2008 totals in Democratic precincts--not to mention a first-wave of exit polling that reports that race at 49% to 49%--Virginia promises to be close. We're keeping a watchful eye on these numbers. Like Florida, a must-win state for Romney but not for Obama.

Florida Close

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 8:18 PM by Maurice Berger

In tonight's returns, Romney is holding his own and the president is matching (or in a few cases) exceeding his vote totals from 2008. PollTrack will watch these numbers very closely. The state promises to be close (PollTrack found this state the most difficult to call). Obama does not need this state to win, but it is crucial to Romney's chances. So a lot is riding on Florida for the GOP nominee.

Ohio Demographics Favor The President

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 8:15 PM by Maurice Berger

Early returns from key precincts in Ohio, as well as exit polls and the demographic breakdown of the electorate, suggest that president Obama is keeping up with his pace in 2008, yet another sign that the state may be difficult for Romney to capture. Stay tuned.

Exit Poll: Seniors In PA

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 8:08 PM by Maurice Berger

According to Exit Polls in Pennsylvania, on the question of who would do a better job of handling Medicare, the president holds a slight lead: 49% to 47%. Yet, in a state with a very large share of senior voters, this number may suggest a dampening of support for Romney among a demographic that has formed the backbone of the Republican party. With Exit Polls reporting a +4% lead for Obama in the state, it appear that Romney faces an uphill battle.

A Slight Edge For Obama In Virginia?

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 7:48 PM by Maurice Berger

A sampling of several key precincts in Virginia suggest that President Obama maintains similar totals to his 2008 numbers--a possible ominous sign for Romney in a must-win state for him.

Is North Carolina A Harbinger?

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 7:35 PM by Maurice Berger

According to Exit Polls in North Carolina, the President and Romney are tied: 49% to 49%. Once again, if Romney does not have a clear lead in GOP-leaning NC, how will he do in states less Republican (like Ohio) or slightly Democratic leaning, such as Iowa and Wisconsin.

High Democratic Turnout In Ohio

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 7:32 PM by Maurice Berger

39% of voters in Ohio today were Democrats, a number that GOP-leaning commentators argued would not be achieved. Is this enough to put President Obama over the top in the state? With Exit Polls suggesting a +3% lead for Obama--51% to 48%--Romney's prospects appear to have dimmed somewhat.

Is Virginia A Problem For Romney?

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 7:11 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack has a question about Virginia: if the exit polls are right--and it is 49% to 49% in the state--how will Mitt Romney fair in states that are far less GOP-leaning, like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and, even, Ohio?

Edge for Obama in Virginia?

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 7:00 PM by Maurice Berger

Exit Polling in Virginia suggests a possible slight edge for President Obama, especially with regard to the racial makeup of the electorate in the state, attitudes about the administration, and the sharp drop in evangelical Christian voters, from 28% in 2008 to 21% now. Stay Tuned.

Exit Poll: Drop Off Of White Vote In Florida

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 6:37 PM by Maurice Berger

Exit Poll for Florida: RACE

 

2008

71% White

13% Black

14% Hispanic

2012

67% White

13% Black

16% Hispanic


These numbers suggest a possible problem for Romney: how to make up for the loss of white voters, especially with Hispanic participation up from 2008?

 

 

Exit Polls: African American Vote . . .

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 6:30 PM by Maurice Berger

. . . is exactly the same proportion of the electorate as it was in 2008: 13%. This is definitely positive news for camp Obama, especially given the 1% bump of Hispanic voters, who have gone from 9% in 2008 to 10% (not to mention the overall increase in support from 2008 for Obama from this demographic).

Ecomonic Perceptions More Positive in VA and OH

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 6:25 PM by Maurice Berger

In both VA (63%) and OH (66%), a majority of voters, according to exit polls, see the economy as better or the same. Does this help the president?

Exit Polls in VA and OH: Voters Are Evenly Divided In Their Opinion Of President

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 6:22 PM by Maurice Berger

Exit Polls: In both Virginia and Ohio voters are fairly evenly divided in their opinion of the Obama administration: In Ohio, 50% are dissatisfied or angry, 48% enthusiastic or satisfied. In Virginia, 50% are enthusiastic or satisfied, 48% dissatisfied or angry. If this hews closely to voter's presidential choice, the race may be close in both states.

Exit Polls: Party Identification

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 6:16 PM by Maurice Berger

Democratic 37%

Republican 34%

Independent 29%


Many GOP analysts have predicted GOP turnout equal or near Democratic turnout. From early exit poll data, this does not appear to be the case. Still, the silver lining for the GOP: how will independents break? And it looks like some pollsters may have overdetermined Democratic turnout.

Exit Polls: Race

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 6:13 PM by Maurice Berger

A possible problem for Mitt Romney: the percentage of white voters in this election appears to be the same as 2008: 73%. Given Obama's enormous advantage with voters of color--and an increase in support among Hispanics (and, according to exit polls, a bump up to 10% participation from 9% in 2008)--the white vote may not be enough to put Romney over the top nationally. Stay tuned.

EXIT POLLS: Age

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 6:10 PM by Maurice Berger

Key national exit polling information:


Positive News for President Obama: turnout among the 18 to 29-year old demographic is the same as in 2008: 18% of the electorate, with no drop off. Obama has lead this group in polls by a massive margin (one of his largest among demographic groups).

Positive news for Mitt Romney: the 65-year old+ demographic has increased their turnout since 2008, from 16% to 19%. The downside for the GOP, most polls report a lessening of support for Republicans among this group, in part due to concerns about the future of Medicare.

PollTrack rates this a net plus for Obama, given the turnout of one of his most important demographic groups. Still, the election continues to look competitive from the standpoint of turnout.

 

We're Up And Running, Better Than Ever: Invite Your Friends To Poll-Track!

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 6:02 PM by Maurice Berger

Welcome to Live Blogging on PollTrack. Political Director Maurice Berger helps clarify election returns.

EXIT POLLS: Economy and Shared Values

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 5:59 PM by Maurice Berger

Nationally voters believe that Mitt Romney would do a better job of handling the economy (51% to 47%), but on issues of empathy and the question of who shares their values most, voters give the nod to Obama. Which point of view will win out in the end?

Virginia: Drop Off In Evagelical Voters

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 5:56 PM by Maurice Berger

One Exit Poll tidbit in Virginia: In 2008, 28% of voters described themselves as evangelical Christians. In 2012, it's down to 21%. Since Obama won the state by a decent margin four years ago, this number suggests that his road to wining the state may have grown steeper. Stay tuned.

Still Waiting For First Wave Of Exit Polling Analysis . . .

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 5:46 PM by Maurice Berger

. . . stay tuned.

Our Traffic is, According To Our Server, MASSIVE . . .

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 5:36 PM by Maurice Berger

. . . so be patient as they work furiously to speed things up (and get us back to normal).

 

THANKS, PollTrack fans.

Live Blogging Tonight!

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 5:32 PM by Maurice Berger

Live Blogging tonight: PollTrack political director, Maurice Berger, will handicap the race for electoral votes as well as competitive US Senate races!

Awaiting Exit Polling . . .

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 5:31 PM by Maurice Berger

Analysis of exit polling should begin to give us an idea about the composition, motivation, and tilt of the electorate. This data will be coming in very slowly over the next few hours. Right now it is wait and see.

Be Patient. A Big Day For Traffic on PollTrack.

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 4:37 PM by Maurice Berger

Due to the exceptionally high volume today, we're continuing to have sporadic server problems. Our tech team is working hard to get things fixed as quickly as possible. We should be up and running smoothly very soon. So keep checking into PollTrack. Live Blogging will begin soon.

How To Get The Most Out Of PollTrack On Election Night

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 3:55 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is the best way to navigate PollTrack on Election Night:

 

[1] Go to the Maps Page and click on Election Night Map

At the beginning of the evening, the only states "called" will be those in which one candidate has a commanding lead--and history and demographics on his side.

As PollTrack calls a state, it will appear on the map as called--either in BLUE for Obama or RED for Romney.

The Electoral Vote Tabulator at right will adjust accordingly.

[2] Below the Map, Live Blogging

PollTrack political director Maurice Berger will be live blogging throughout the evening: suggesting possible outcomes; examining internal demographics--especially where the votes are coming from geographically and demographically--to better gauge who is winning a state; and analyzing broader trends--especially, how each state contributes to the "bigger picture" of who will win.

[3] Check into Writing on the Wall

Berger will be offering additional blogging on Writing on the Wall, analyzing competitive US Senate races. (Also, you'll get to see how well PollTrack's US Senate Race Chart does against actual results.)

Enjoy! And see you at 5:00 PM EST for Live Blogging.

Don't Forget To Check Out Our MAPS: Final 303-Obama/235-Romney

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 3:05 PM by Maurice Berger

Last night, PollTrack posted its FINAL Today's Map and Tomorrow's Map. The final tall: 303-Obama/235-Romney. The last state called: Florida, which according to our poll averaging is very, very close.

No New National Tracking Polls: Morning Tally Is FINAL

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 1:54 PM by Maurice Berger

Since no new tracking polls came through this afternoon, our FINAL national tracking poll average posted this morning is, in fact, our final tally. Check back throughout the day for updates and Live Blogging at 5:00 PM EST.

Site Down For An Hour: Our Apologies

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 11:34 AM by Maurice Berger

Due to a glitch in our server, the PollTrack site was down for about an hour. Sorry for the inconvenience. We're back up. So keep returning for updated news and analysis.

A Note On "Independent" Voters

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger

Much has been made by commentators about Mitt Romney's lead with independent voters in a number of the latest tracking polls. A note of caution: this year, and very much due to the rise of the Tea Party, many voters who self-describe as "independent" are, in fact, Tea Party conservatives (many of whom are supporting Romney). When surveys consider the sentiment of another key demographic group--one heretofore associated with independent voters, but not necessarily in this cycle--"moderates," i.e., voters in the middle of the political spectrum, many disillusioned by two-part polarization--Obama leads, by as much as +20%. Will this cycle dynamically redefine the term "independent"? PollTrack will have more on this issue after Election 2012.

Check Back Throughout The Day For Updates

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:48 AM by Maurice Berger

Due to Hurricane Sandy's disruption of a number of tracking and national polls, check back throughout the day for possible updates to the national poling average. While it has been PollTrack's policy not to publish updates on Election Day, we are making an exception due to the problems encountered by pollsters in the days following the hurricane's devastation.

Final National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.4%--48.9% to 47.5%

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:05 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's final national polling average for the 2012 presidential race shows President Obama with a lead of +1.4%, a marked improvement from his poll average of just seven days ago. Indeed, in the last week, the vast majority of national surveys reported a slight but clear momentum for the president, particularly in the days following Hurricane Sandy. In our final average, Obama is at 48.9% and his GOP challenger Mitt Romney is at 47.5%.

Stay tuned for PollTrack Political Director, Maurice Berger's Live Blogging (on the Presidential Maps page, for the presidential race; on Writing on the Wall for US Senate races) starting today at 5:00 PM EST.

Final National Polling Average Tomorrow Morning

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 10:34 PM by Maurice Berger

Due to one late tracking poll (by International Business Daily-TIPP), PollTrack's final national polling average will be issued tomorrow morning. The US Senate Race Chart and the Presidential Maps will be finalized by midnight tonight EST.  

 

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.3%

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 5:37 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 5:30 PM EST this evening continues to show a close race, but with the president leading by more than a percentage point. Obama now stands at 48.8% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a lead for Obama of +1.3%.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.4%

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 3:44 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 3:30 PM EST this afternoon shows the president just grazing the 49.0% mark, a number that would tend to confirm his structural lead in the swing states. Obama now stands at 48.9% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a lead for Obama of +1.4%.

Final US Senate Chart and Presidential Maps At 12:00 Midnight EST

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 1:40 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack will post its final presidential maps (Today and Tomorrow) and US Senate Chart later this evening. All final pages will be posted by midnight tonight, EST, except the national polling average which will be finalized tomorrow morning (due to a late tracking poll). Then join us tomorrow at 5:00 PM for live blogging of election results 2012.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.4%

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 1:27 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 1:30 PM EST this afternoon shows a +0.2% increase for the president from this morning. Obama now stands at 48.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.2%--for a lead for Obama of +1.4%.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.2%

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 9:34 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 9:30 AM EST this morning shows the race tightening slightly. Obama now stands at 48.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a lead for Obama of +1.2%.

Live Blogging Tomorrow Night, Starting at 5:00 PM EST!

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 9:15 AM by Maurice Berger

Tomorrow night, starting at 5:00 PM EST, PollTrack will be live blogging election results and offering detailed state by state analysis. Instructions on how to follow the Election Day Map and analysis will be posted the morning of the 6th. Stay with us throughout election night for some of the smartest and most accurate analysis on the web!

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.8%

Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 6:35 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 6:30 PM EST this evening continues to show  momentum for President Obama. Indeed, in the freshest round of polls--those released over the past day or so--Obama leads in most, is tied in a few. Romney no longer leads in any national poll released over the past 36-hours. Just as significant, the president is at 49% or 50% in many of these polls--UPI, Rand, PPP, Pew, ABC/Washington Post, YouGov, JZ-Analytics/Washington Times--a threshold that suggest a durable national lead. Obama now stands at 48.4% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.8%.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.5%

Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 10:16 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EST this morning continues to show modest momentum for President Obama. Obama now stands at 48.0% and Mitt Romney at 46.5%--for a lead for Obama of +1.5%.

Today's Map: Virginia Moves from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic

Posted Nov 03, 2012 at 5:15 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack has moved Virginia on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic, for an Obama Electoral College lead of 303 EVS to Romney's 206. Florida remains undecided on Today's Map at 29 EVs.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.3%

Posted Nov 03, 2012 at 5:14 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 6:00 PM EDT this evening continues to show modest  momentum for President Obama, who leads by more than one-percent. Obama now stands at 47.9% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.3%.

 

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.2%

Posted Nov 03, 2012 at 8:55 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 9:30 AM EDT this morning continues to show slight momentum for President Obama, who leads by more than one-percent. Obama now stands at 47.8% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.2%.

National Polling Average: Obama Holding Steady At +1.1%

Posted Nov 02, 2012 at 4:15 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 5:00 PM EDT this afternoon shows a stable race, with President Obama holding on to his lead, now just above one-percent. Obama now stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.1%.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.1%

Posted Nov 02, 2012 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EDT this morning shows a stable race, with President Obama up by more than one-percent, suggesting slight momentum for him. Obama now stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.1%.

National Polling Average: Obama's Lead Increases To +1.0%

Posted Nov 01, 2012 at 4:35 PM by Maurice Berger

This afternoon's PollTrack national Polling Average as of this evening at 5:30 PM EDT suggests a bit of forward momentum for President Obama. Even including the large lead for Romney in the now suspended Gallup Poll--we continue to factor in tracking polls issued over the past ten days--Obama now has a full +1.0% lead over his GOP challenger Mitt Romney--47.7% to 46.7%. Stay tuned to see if this is a durable lead or just a day of good polling for the president.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.6% and Romney-47.2%

Posted Nov 01, 2012 at 9:14 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EDT this morning shows a stable race. Once again, a word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy, thus making it more difficult to access the current state of the race. President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.2%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

Live Blogging On Election Night!

Posted Nov 01, 2012 at 12:35 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack will be live blogging election results and offering detailed state by state analysis on election night, 6 November, starting at 5:00 PM EST. Instructions on how to follow the Election Day Map and analysis will be posted the morning of the 6th. Stay with us throughout election night for some of the smartest and most accurate analysis on the web!