Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Majority of Americans Trust Administration On Benghazi Attacks

Posted Dec 28, 2012 at 12:08 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by CNN/ORC reports that a solid majority of Americans say that the Obama administration did not intentionally misled the public on what it knew in the wake of the Sept. 11 Benghazi attacks. 40% say the administration made misleading statements; while 56% saying reject that idea. Despite this positive result, the poll also reported that "only 43% [of Americans] are satisfied with the way the Obama administration has handled the matter in the past few months; half are dissatisfied."

Majority Support Major Gun Restrictions

Posted Dec 27, 2012 at 10:23 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by CNN/ORC taken in the days following the tragic Newtown, Connecticut massacre, a narrow majority of Americans--52%--support significant restrictions on owning guns or an outright ban on gun ownership by ordinary citizens. 43% say the shooting makes them more likely to support more gun restrictions. CNN/ORC observes: "All of those numbers are much higher than they were in a CNN poll conducted in January, 2011, indicating that the tragedy in Connecticut may be affecting more Americans more intensely than other recent attacks."

Romney's Election Deficit Ran Much Deeper Than Hispanics

Posted Dec 26, 2012 at 10:51 AM by Maurice Berger

In an analysis of the popular and electoral vote in Election 2012, The Fix reports that while Republicans had a "major Latino problem,"it didn't cost them the election: "Mitt Romney would have needed to carry as much as 51% of the Hispanic vote in order to win the Electoral College -- a number no Republican presidential candidate on record has been able to attain and isn't really within the realm of possibility these days."

Gallup: Obama Approval At Highest Since 2009

Posted Dec 21, 2012 at 8:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Gallup reports that President Obama's approval rating now stands at 56%, his highest mark on that question since October 2009; only 37% disapprove of his job performance.

PollTrack Holiday Schedule

Posted Dec 20, 2012 at 11:16 PM by Maurice Berger

During PollTrack's holiday schedule, we will not have posts on the following days: 24 December, 25 December, 31 December, 1 January. We will have regular posts Wednesday thru Friday during the next two week. And we'll be up with a post tomorrow morning. So check back frequently for updates.



Final Election Tally: Obama By Healthy +4%

Posted Dec 20, 2012 at 12:04 PM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by the Los Angeles Times, "More than five weeks after election day, almost all the presidential votes have been counted. Here's what the near-final tally reveals: The election really wasn't close." The Times continues: "In the weeks since the election, as states have completed their counts, Obama's margin has grown steadily. From just over 2 percentage points, it now stands at nearly 4. Rather than worry about the Bush-Kerry precedent, White House aides now brag that Obama seems all but certain to achieve a mark hit by only five others in U.S. history - winning the presidency twice with 51% or more of the popular vote."

Obama Approval At Highest Level in Three Years

Posted Dec 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Bloomberg reports that President Obama's job approval has improved to 53%, his highest level in three years, when his approval rating was 54%.

More Back Democrats on Fiscal Cliff

Posted Dec 18, 2012 at 9:43 AM by Maurice Berger

According to new poll by Pew Research that when it comes to the reaching an agreement to avoid the "fiscal cliff," 55% say President Obama is making a credible effort to work with Republicans to reach a deficit deal; just 32% say the same about GOP leaders.

Large Majority Want "Fiscal Cliff" Compromise

Posted Dec 17, 2012 at 9:16 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by NBC News/Wall Street Journal reports that almost two-thirds of Americans say they favor a balanced deal to reduce the deficit -- consisting of both higher tax rates and cuts to key entitlement programs. In a key finding in the survey, 65% believe that congressional leaders should make compromises to deal with the budget deficit. The support for compromise is broad and wide: 68% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 56% of political independents support this position.

Hillary Clinton: Career High Popularity

Posted Dec 13, 2012 at 1:59 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by ABC New/Washington Post, 57% of voters would back a presidential bid by Hillary Clinton, with just 37% opposed. And she now has a 69% approval rating for her job as as Secretary of State early as well as a 67% overall favorability rating,  a high in her long public career.

Did Hurricane Sandy Blunt Romney's Momentum?

Posted Dec 12, 2012 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger

Did Hurricane Sandy Blunt Romney's Momentum? According to former Romney strategist Stuart Stevens, the campaign lost momentum in the final week as Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast: "After the storm, I never had a good feeling. Not that the storm impacted things so much, per se, but these races -- a race like this is a lot like an NBA game. It's all about ball control at the end... We went from having these big rallies around the country to literally sitting around in hotel rooms and there was just nothing we could do about it." PollTrack must point out, however, that at no point during the last three months of the 2012 election cycle did its own analysis of the race--and its polling averages--indicate enough momentum for Romney to suggest a possible win. Indeed, PollTrack's Election Maps never showed Obama dropping below the 270-mark nor Romney rising above it, even after the President's sub-par debate performance in Denver in early-October. 

Voters Trust Obama More Than Republicans In Avoiding Fiscal Cliff

Posted Dec 11, 2012 at 10:04 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Quinnipiac, voters trust Obama and Democrats more than Republicans, by a 53% to 36% margin, to avoid the "fiscal cliff." Pollster Peter Brown writes: "Voters see Republicans as more likely to be obstructionist, and have less confidence in their ability to come up with the right solution to the nation's financial woes."

Post-Election Bounce?

Posted Dec 10, 2012 at 9:54 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Associated Press-GfK, President Obama's approval rating now stands at 57%, the highest since May 2011, when U.S. Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden. The president received a clear post-election bounce of + 5%, since 6 November. Overall perceptions of the health of the nation have also improved, with more Americans believing that the nation is heading in the right direction than at any time since the start of President Obama's first term.

Would Booker Make A Stronger Candidate for US Senate In NJ?

Posted Dec 07, 2012 at 8:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in New Jersey reports that if Democratic US Sen. Frank Lautenberg should retire -- or even if he seeks reelection -- Newark Mayor Cory Booker has a clear shot at the seat. By a 59% to 22% margin Democrats say they would prefer Booker over Lautenberg in 2014. And if the seat opens up by virtue of Lautenberg's retirement, Booker emerges as the strong favorite: 48% prefer Booker as their candidate compared to 17% for Rep. Rob Andrews and 13% for Rep. Frank Pallone (both have expressed interest in the race).

Christie Holds Commanding Reelection Lead

Posted Dec 06, 2012 at 9:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by  Public Policy Polling in New Jersey reports that Republican Gov. Chris Christie holds a commanding lead in this year's reelection effort. Christie's approval rate is 67% to 25% and he would beat hypothetical Democratic challenger, Newark Mayor Cory Booker in a gubernatorial match up by double-digits, 50% to 36%.

Assessing The Democratic Field in 2016

Posted Dec 05, 2012 at 9:28 AM by Maurice Berger

Harry Enten, applying a statistical method that assesses potential presidential candidates by ideology, places New York Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo to the right of a number of possible contenders. Cuomo, Enten writes, "simply doesn't have that liberal allure" that Hillary Clinton or other popular Democrats mentioned as possible presidential candidates in 2016. He continues: "If these numbers are to believed, the possible 2016 roster of candidates will position Cuomo and Warner as ideologically conservative Democrats, Biden and O'Malley as moderate Democrats, Clinton, Patrick, and Schweitzer as liberal Democrats, and Warren as a very liberal Democrat."

PollTrack believes that we have a long way to go until 2016. Perceptions may change as voters become more familiar with the potential candidates (of both parties).

Final Race Settled, US House: 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats

Posted Dec 04, 2012 at 9:26 AM by Maurice Berger

With the final US House race decided late last week (North Carolina Democrat Rep. Mike McIntyre won his congressional reelection race), the 113th Congress will be represented by 201 Democrats and 234 Republicans. While the GOP retains control of the House, Democrats gained a total of eight seats overall in 2012.

Obama's National Lead Grows

Posted Dec 03, 2012 at 9:45 AM by Maurice Berger

As of late last week, President Obama's national lead over Mitt Romney rose to 50.9% to 47.4%.  As NBC First Read notes: "That's a bigger (and more decisive) margin that Bush's victory over John Kerry in 2004 (which was Bush 50.7% and Kerry 48.2%). What's more, the president's lead has grown to close to 3 points in Ohio, 4 points in Virginia and 6 points in Colorado. One doesn't win Colorado by six points without winning swing voters; there isn't a big-enough Democratic base to make that argument."