Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Which US County Did Obama Win Biggest?

Posted Jan 30, 2013 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger

Which US county gave President Obama his largest percentage of the vote in the 2012 Election? Was it a county in New York? Vermont? Washington, DC? The answer, according to Josh Green, is "Shannon County, tucked into the southwest corner of South Dakota with a population of about 13,000. Ninety-three percent of the county's voters supported Obama, the highest percentage of any county in the country."

Long Lines Cost Votes In Florida

Posted Jan 29, 2013 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a study by votes compiled by the Orlando Sentinel, and analyzed by Ohio State University professor Theodore Allen , more than 201,000 votes were lost in Florida in the November election due to long lines. The Sentinel continues: "At least 201,000 voters likely gave up in frustration on Nov. 6, based on research Allen has been doing on voter behavior. His preliminary conclusion was based on the Sentinel's analysis of voter patterns and precinct-closing times in Florida's 25 largest counties, home to 86 percent of the state's 11.9 million registered voters."

Polarizing Presidency?

Posted Jan 28, 2013 at 7:30 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "during his fourth year in office, an average of 86% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans approved of the job Barack Obama did as president. That 76-percentage-point gap ties George W. Bush's fourth year as the most polarized years in Gallup records."

Americans Approve of Obama's Gun Proposals

Posted Jan 24, 2013 at 7:50 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Gallup, "Americans' immediate reaction to President Barack Obama's proposals for new laws designed to reduce gun violence is more positive than negative, with 53% saying they would want their representative in Congress to vote for the set of proposed new laws, while 41% say their representative should vote against them."

Obama Approval Similar to George W. Bush At This Point In Term

Posted Jan 23, 2013 at 8:58 AM by Maurice Berger

In its analysis of its recent approval polling for the president, the New York Times/CBS News observes that the President's "job approval rating is similar to that of George W. Bush at the start of his second term, but much lower than the ratings of the previous two presidents who served eight years. (President Bill Clinton's approval rate was 60 percent in January 1997 and Ronald Reagan's was 62 percent in January 1985.) More than 8 in 10 Democrats approve of his job performance, 8 in 10 Republicans disapprove and independents are evenly divided."

Americans Negative on GOP

Posted Jan 22, 2013 at 9:00 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by NBC News/Wall Street Journal, 49% of Americans hold a negative view of the Republican Party while 26% have a positive view. Views of the Democratic Party remain net positive rating: 44% hold a favorable view of the party and 38% hold an unfavorable one.

Enjoy The Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. National Holiday

Posted Jan 21, 2013 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

  . . . PollTrack will return on Tuesday with up-to-the-minute reporting about voter sentiment on the ground. 

Majority Approve Of President's Job Performance

Posted Jan 18, 2013 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 52% of Americans approve of President Obama's overall job performance. 

Majority Support Roe v Wade

Posted Jan 17, 2013 at 8:56 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey by Pew Research reports that 63% of Americans are opposed to overturning Roe v Wade, the US Supreme Court's historic 1973 ruling on abortion; only 29% want it reversed.

Most Americans Reject Debt Ceiling Link To Spending Cuts

Posted Jan 16, 2013 at 10:03 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll 58% of Americans prefer that the debt ceiling issue should be handled separately from the debate on spending cuts, while 36% favor linking the two.

Over 80% Of Americans Disapprove of US Congress

Posted Jan 15, 2013 at 11:12 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Gallup reports that "Americans give Congress a 14% job approval rating as the new year begins, the lowest since September of last year and down from 18% in November and December. The disapproval rating for Congress is 81%." Here is Gallup's chart:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job?

Americans Divided On Gun Control

Posted Jan 14, 2013 at 9:23 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Gallup: "In the aftermath of the Newtown, Conn., school shootings, and as Vice President Joe Biden leads a federal task force that will recommend ways to curb gun violence in the U.S., 38% of Americans are dissatisfied with the nation's gun laws and want them strengthened. This is up from 25% who held this set of views a year ago, and is the highest since 2001. Still, more Americans are either satisfied with current gun laws, 43%, or think they should be loosened, 5%." Here is Gallup's chart:

Trend: Americans' Satisfaction With/Views on Gun Laws

Democrats Retake Lead In Party Affiliation

Posted Jan 11, 2013 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Gallup, "an average of 47% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they were independents who leaned Democratic in 2012, compared with 42% who identified as or leaned Republican. That re-establishes a Democratic edge in party affiliation after the two parties were essentially tied in 2010 and 2011."

Christie Even More Popular With Democrats Nationally

Posted Jan 10, 2013 at 9:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Public Policy Polling survey reports that Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Chrisitie is more popular with Democrats nationally than he is with Republicans. His overall favorability is 51% to 23%.  With Democrats, he holds +29 advantage: 52% to 23%. With GOP voters, his advantage is +21: 48% to 27%. And he is most popular with independent voters with a staggering +34 at advantage: 52% to 18%.

Obama, Clinton Most Admired Americans

Posted Jan 09, 2013 at 8:53 AM by Maurice Berger

From Gallup: "Americans again this year name Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama as the Most Admired Woman and Most Admired Man living in any part of the world. Clinton has been the Most Admired Woman each of the last 11 years, and Obama has been the Most Admired Man five years in a row. First lady Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey, and Condoleezza Rice are next in line behind Clinton on the Most Admired Woman list, while Nelson Mandela, Mitt Romney, Billy Graham, George W. Bush, and Pope Benedict XVI follow Obama as Most Admired Man." Here is Gallup' chart:

Most Admired Woman, 2012Most Admired Man, 2012

Americans Have Mixed Reaction To Fiscal Cliff Deal

Posted Jan 08, 2013 at 8:46 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Gallup, "Americans have a decidedly mixed reaction to the "fiscal cliff" agreement reached by Congress and signed into law by President Barack Obama this week, with 43% saying they approve and 45% saying they disapprove. Two-thirds of Democrats approve of the agreement, while almost as many Republicans disapprove. Independents are slightly more likely to disapprove than approve." For more on the poll, click here.

Obama's Electoral Milestone

Posted Jan 07, 2013 at 8:39 AM by Maurice Berger

With nearly all of the votes counted in the 2012 presidential,   President Obama has won 51.1% of the vote -- against challenger Mitt Romney, who took  47.2% of the total. This represents an historical milestone: Obama is the first president to achieve that level of support in two elections since President Dwight D. Eisenhower was re-elected in 1956. He is also only one of three presidents to do so in the twentienth century, the other being Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

Most Americans Now Believe In "Global Warming"

Posted Jan 04, 2013 at 7:57 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Associated Press-GfK, 78% of Americans believe that temperatures are rising and 80% say global warming will be a serious problem for the United States if nothing is done about it. Even among Americans "who trust scientists only a little or not at all," 61% now say temperatures have been rising over the past 100 years, a substantial increase from 2009, when the poll found 47% said the same.

Can Cuomo Effectively Challenge Clinton In 2016?

Posted Jan 03, 2013 at 9:53 AM by Maurice Berger

With many speculating that Hillary Clinton will mount another run for president in 2016, NY Governor Andrew Cuomo appears also to be weighing his options. Will the Governor's sky-high popularity in his home state increase his standing within the Democratic party? Or is Senator Clinton unstoppable? A recent poll by Quinnipiac in New York reports that Cuomo holds a stunning 74% to 13% approval rating, his highest score to date and the latest in a six-month string of 70+ percent positive ratings. But it is the demographic breakdown of these number that may add fuel to the Cuomo presidential bandwagon: 68% (to 18%) of Republicans and 70% (to 12%) of independent voters also approve of the way he is handling his job. In the end, New York is not a good indicator of national sentiment and popularity: there, it is Sen. Clinton who holds the edge, with a national approval rating at nearly 70%, higher than her husband or the president.

Is The GOP Running Out Of White Voters?

Posted Jan 02, 2013 at 6:51 AM by Maurice Berger

With the population of older white--and generally GOP-leaning--voters aging out and dying, is the Republican Party risking becoming a "regional party" if they don't increase support among Hispanic and other voters. GOP pollster Whit Ayres released a strategy memo saying that Republicans are, indeed, at risk in future elections:  "Mitt Romney won a landslide among white voters, defeating Barack Obama by 59 to 39 percent. In the process he won every large segment of white voters, often by double-digit margins: white men, white women, white Catholics, white Protestants, white old people, white young people. Yet that was not enough to craft a national majority. Republicans have run out of persuadable white voters. For the fifth time in the past six presidential elections, Republicans lost the popular vote. Trying to win a national election by gaining a larger and larger share of a smaller and smaller portion of the electorate is a losing political proposition."