Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Who Is Ahead In New York Mayoralty Race?

Posted Feb 28, 2013 at 8:42 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack will be covering this year's race to New York City mayor. Due to term limits, the present mayor--independent, Michael Bloomberg--will no be running for reelection. Though early in the race, a new poll by Quinnipiac University suggests that in the Democratic primary in a city that is vastly Democratic in voter registration, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn is very close to the 40% threshold needed to avoid a runoff election. The survey reports that Quinn leads the Democratic primary with 37%, more than three other candidates combined.

Obama Job Approval Highest In Three Years

Posted Feb 27, 2013 at 8:24 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Bloomberg National Poll reports that President Obama has achieved his highest job approval in three years. 55% of Americans now approve of his performance in office, the strongest support since Sept 2009. 

Will Nate Silver's Predictions Influence Elections

Posted Feb 26, 2013 at 8:36 AM by Maurice Berger

In an interview withStudent Life, Nate Silver suggests that he might end his election forecasting after the 2014 or 2016 elections should his projections "actually influence the elections' outcome." Silver continues: "The polls can certainly affect elections at times. I hope people don't take the forecasts too seriously. You'd rather have an experiment where you record it off from the actual voters, in a sense, but we'll see. If it gets really weird in 2014, in 2016, then maybe I'll stop doing it. I don't want to influence the democratic process in a negative way."

Majority Favor Ending Saturday Mail Delivery

Posted Feb 25, 2013 at 8:38 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "63% of Americans say they favor ending Saturday residential mail delivery as a way for the U.S. Postal Service to address its financial problems. A similar majority (67%) also favor reducing the number of days local post office branches are open. A majority (57%) oppose raising stamp prices."

Where Are LGTB Populations Highest and Lowest In US?

Posted Feb 22, 2013 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A recent survey by Gallup reports that "the percentage of U.S. adults who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender (LGBT) ranges from 1.7% in North Dakota to 5.1% in Hawaii and 10% in the District of Columbia, according to Gallup surveys conducted from June-December 2012. Residents in the District of Columbia were most likely to identify as LGBT (10%). Among states, the highest percentage was in Hawaii (5.1%) and the lowest in North Dakota (1.7%), but all states are within two percentage points of the nationwide average of 3.5%." Here is Gallup's chart:

LGBT by State, 2012


Booker Democratic Candidate To Beat In 2014 NJ US Senate Primary

Posted Feb 20, 2013 at 10:25 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press in New Jersey reports that Cory Booker would have handily beat Sen. Frank Lautenberg in a possible Democratic Senate primary in 2014, 40% to 25%, numbers that offer one reason why Lautenberg chose bot to run for reelection.

Markey Ahead In MA Democratic Senate Primary

Posted Feb 19, 2013 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Which Democrat is in the strongest position to take the Democratic nomination in the special election to fill the US Senate seat in Massachusetts just vacated by John Kerry?  A new poll by  WBUR reports that Rep. Ed Markey leads Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) among likely Democratic U.S. Senate primary voters, 38% to 31% with 4% preferring another candidate. 26% remain undecided.

Democrats More Racially Diverse

Posted Feb 15, 2013 at 10:35 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Gallup, "Non-Hispanic whites accounted for 89% of Republican self-identifiers nationwide in 2012, while accounting for 70% of independents and 60% of Democrats. Over one-fifth of Democrats (22%) were black, while 16% of independents were Hispanic." Here is Gallup's chart:

Racial and Ethnic Composition of U.S., by Party ID, 2012

Will Democrats Hold On To The US Senate In 2014?

Posted Feb 14, 2013 at 9:04 AM by Maurice Berger

Will Democrats hold on to their majority in the US Senate in 2014? The answer may rest with the quality--and popularity--of the candidates advanced by each party. One place where Democratic hopes have risen is Iowa, home of retiring Democratic Senator, Tom Harkin. A new poll from the Des Moines Register reports that a majority of voters think U.S. secretary of agriculture Tom Vilsack would be an appealing Senate candidate, 56% to 35%. Can he beat a GOP challenger in one of the nation's most purple states. Remarks pollster Ann Selzer: "This is the kind of poll finding that launches campaigns."Stay tuned.

Which States Have Highest Rate Of Employment?

Posted Feb 13, 2013 at 9:06 AM by Maurice Berger

Which states have the highest--and lowest--rate of employment? According to an analysis by Gallup, "North Dakota had the highest Payroll to Population (P2P) employment rate in the country in 2012 -- 53.6%. Maryland ranked second, while seven other states with shared borders -- Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and Utah -- landed in the top 10. Mississippi and South Carolina had the lowest P2P rates of all the states (38.5% and 38.7%, respectively), about 15 percentage points lower than the highest-ranking state. Florida and West Virginia also had P2P rates below 40%." Here are Gallup's charts:

Top 10 States, Payroll to Population, 2012Bottom 10 States, Payroll to Population, 2012

Obama's Approval Ratings Decline

Posted Feb 11, 2013 at 11:00 AM by Maurice Berger

Is President Obama's second-term honeymoon over with voters. Two polls seems to suggest the answer is yes. The surveys now report that the Obama's approval rate has dropped below 50%: Fox News has it at 49%, while it is 46% according to Quinnipiac.

Republicans See "Violent Video Games" As Bigger Threat Than Guns

Posted Feb 08, 2013 at 9:45 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Public Policy Polling, 67% of Republican voters believe that "violent video games" represent a bigger threat to public safety than guns.

Texas Secession Support Rises

Posted Feb 07, 2013 at 9:56 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that 20% of Texans -- including 35% of Republicans -- would support their state seceding from the Union. The number is up from 14% in September 2011, and is in the wake of President Obama's re-election in November.

Who Owns Guns In America?

Posted Feb 06, 2013 at 9:05 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Gallup, "Men are three times more likely than women to personally own guns, representing one of the largest demographic differences in gun ownership, according to an analysis of Gallup polls from 2007 to 2012. Gun ownership also varies significantly by region, with Southerners more likely to own guns than those living in other regions of the United States. Marriage is also a strong predictor of gun ownership." Here is Gallup's chart: 

Personal Gun Ownership by Subgroup, 2007-2012

Which States Are Most Conservative/Liberal In US?

Posted Feb 05, 2013 at 10:28 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "Alabama, North Dakota, and Wyoming were the most conservative states in the union in 2012, with between 49% and 50% of residents in each identifying their ideology as conservative. Residents of the District of Columbia were by far the most likely to identify as liberal (41%), followed by Massachusetts (31%), Oregon, and Vermont (each at 29% liberal)" Here are Gallup's charts:


Top 10 Conservative States, Full Year 2012

Top 10 Liberal States, Full Year 2012

Uptick Of Liberalism In The US

Posted Feb 04, 2013 at 9:06 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Gallup, "America has become a slightly more liberal and a slightly less conservative nation than it was in 2011 -- based on residents' self-reports of their ideology -- but conservatives still outnumber both moderates and liberals," More Americans continue to identify as conservative than liberal in 2012, 38% to 23%, compared with 40% to 21% in 2011. The percentage of self-identified moderates remains the same, at 36%.

Does Government Threaten Our Rights And Freedoms?

Posted Feb 01, 2013 at 9:16 AM by Maurice Berger

A  survey by Pew Research reports that "trust in the federal government remains mired near a historic low, while frustration with government remains high. And for the first time, a majority of the public says that the federal government threatens their personal rights and freedoms." The poll found "that 53% think that the federal government threatens their own personal rights and freedoms while 43% disagree."