Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

NJ Special Election: Booker Holds Big Lead

Posted Sep 30, 2013 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Kean University in New Jersey continues to report a lopsided race for U.S. Senate: Democrat Cory Booker leads Republican Steve Lonegan in the special election by a wide margin, 52% to 33%.

Slight Improvement In Americans' View Of The Media

Posted Sep 26, 2013 at 11:59 AM by Maurice Berger

A Gallup survey reports that "Americans' confidence in the accuracy of the mass media has improved slightly after falling to an all-time low last year. Now, 44% say they have a great deal or fair amount of trust and confidence in the mass media, identical to 2011 but up from 40% in 2012, the lowest reading since Gallup regularly began tracking the question in 1997." Here is Gallup's chart:

Trend: Americans' Trust in the Mass Media

VA Governor: Democrat Expands Lead

Posted Sep 25, 2013 at 7:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Washington Post poll in Virginia reports that Democrat Terry McAuliffe has expanded his lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the race for governor, 47% to 39%. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is at 10%.

NJ Special Election: How Big Is Booker's Lead?

Posted Sep 24, 2013 at 8:04 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Stockton Polling Institute in New Jersey reports that Democrat Cory Booker holds a commanding +26% lead over Republican Steve Lonegan in the U.S. Senate race, 58% to 32%. Meanwhile, a new poll by Quinnipiac poll tells a somewhat different story. It has Booker leading Lonegan by +12% among likely voters, 53% to 41%.

Democrat With Tiny Lead For VA Governor

Posted Sep 23, 2013 at 10:39 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Roanoke College in Virginia reports that Democrat Terry McAuliffe edges Republican Ken Cuccinelli by two points in the race for governor, 35% to 33%; Libertarian Robert Sarvis is at 8%.      

NY Mayoral Race: de Blasio With Commanding Lead

Posted Sep 20, 2013 at 8:54 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in New York City reports that there is a "yawning racial gaps on many issues" as Democrat Bill de Blasio leads Republican Joe Lhota in the race for mayor in every measure except taxes. The Democrat holds a commanding lead among likely voters, 66% to 25%.

NC Governor In Trouble With Voters

Posted Sep 19, 2013 at 8:33 AM by Maurice Berger

Is the GOP governor of North Carolina in jeapardy of loosing his 2014 reelection bid? A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina reports that incumbent Gov. Governor Pat McCrory's poll numbers have fallen "to their lowest level ever."  According to the survey, only 35% of voters approve of the job he's doing; 53% disapprove.

Slight Uptick In Congressional Approval

Posted Sep 18, 2013 at 8:53 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup: "Americans remain highly critical of the job Congress is doing, but the 19% who approve is up significantly from 14% last month, and the highest in any month since October 2012. Congress' approval rating has exceeded the current 19% on only a few occasions over the last three years, a span that includes the all-time low ratings of 10% in February 2012 and August 2012"

Democrat Leads In VA Governor's Race

Posted Sep 17, 2013 at 9:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Purple Strategies in Virginia reports that Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli by +5% in the race for governor, 43% to 38%. The poll notes, however: "With many voters undecided -- and two disliked candidates -- this race is unpredictable."

LA US 2014 Senate: Democratic Advantage

Posted Sep 16, 2013 at 12:10 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Louisiana finds that incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu leads GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy by ten points in her 2014 reelection bid, 50% to 40%. 

Vast Majority Opposed To US Strike in Syria

Posted Sep 12, 2013 at 7:52 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a poll by CNN/ORC International "even though eight in 10 Americans believe that the Bashar al-Assad regime gassed its own people, a strong majority doesn't want Congress to pass a resolution authorizing a military strike against the regime. . . . More than seven in 10 say such a strike would not achieve significant goals for the U.S. and a similar amount say it's not in the national interest for the U.S. to get involved in Syria's bloody two-year long civil war."

Obama Approval Drops

Posted Sep 11, 2013 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by NBC reports that President Obama's  job-approval rating has dropped to 44%, which is tied for his lowest mark in past surveys over his entire term. His approval rating on foreign policy is even lower, with just 41% approving of his handling of the issue, an all-time low.

PollTrack's Analysis of Today's Primary Races In New York

Posted Sep 10, 2013 at 9:26 AM by Maurice Berger

While polling in primary races in New York City can be problematic-- because likely voter models are difficult to gauge--PollTrack has seen a pattern over the past few weeks that suggests possible outcomes in three races. On the Democratic side: in the race for Public Advocate, PollTrack sees an advantage for NY State Senator, Daniel L. Squadron. After weeks of leading in the polls, former New York Governor David Spitzer no longer holds an advantage in the race for Comptroller. We think it is likely that Manhattan Borough President Scott M. Stringer will prevail in that race. In the primary for Mayor, one candidate holds a clear lead and will likely come out on top tonight: Bill de Blassio. But it is unclear from our poll averaging and demographic analysis if he will reach the 40% cut-off to avoid a run off. If he does not, his likely opponent will either be Christine Quinn or current NYC Comptroller William C. Thompson. We give a slight advantage to Quinn in the race for second place.

In the GOP primary for Mayor, Polltrack see the clear leader as former Metropolitan Transportation Authority head, Joseph L. Lhota.

Stringer Pulls Ahead In NY Comptroller Primary

Posted Sep 09, 2013 at 5:50 PM by Maurice Berger

A just released Quinnipiac poll in New York City reports that Scott Stringer has pulled ahead in the heretofore too-close-to-call Democratic primary for comptroller. Stringer now leads former New York governor Eliot Spitzer, 50% to 43%.

NY Mayoralty: de Blassio Close to Avoiding Run-Off

Posted Sep 09, 2013 at 10:07 AM by Maurice Berger

Three new polls suggest that Bill de Blassio is close to avoiding a run-off in the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor. A Public Policy Polling survey  reports that de Blasio is at 38%, followed by William Thompson at 19%, Christine Quinn at 13%, Anthony Weiner at 9%, and John Liu at 5%. A new Quinniapiac poll finds De Blasio in the lead with 39%, followed by Thompson at 25%, Quinn at 18%, Weiner at 6%, and John Liu at 4%.  A Wall Street Journal/NBC/Marist Poll has de Blasio at 36% followed by Christine Quinn at 20%, Bill Thompson at 20% and Anthony Weiner at 7%.  

Americans Opposed To Military Intervention In Syria

Posted Sep 06, 2013 at 1:52 PM by Maurice Berger

A new Pew Research survey reports that President Obama "faces an uphill battle in making the case for U.S. military action in Syria. By a 48% to 29% margin, more Americans oppose than support conducting military airstrikes against Syria in response to reports that the Syrian government used chemical weapons." The breakdown in party affiliation shows most voters opposed: "Just 29% of Democrats favor conducting airstrikes against Syria while 48% are opposed. Opinion among independents is similar (29% favor, 50% oppose). Republicans are more divided, with 35% favoring airstrikes and 40% opposed."

NYC Comptroller: Deadlocked

Posted Sep 05, 2013 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in New York City reports that the race for Comptroller is deadlocked, with Scott Stringer edging ahead of Eliot Spitzer among likley voters, 47% to 45%.

NYC Mayoralty: de Blasio Pulls Ahead

Posted Sep 03, 2013 at 8:53 AM by Maurice Berger

Two polls released last week report that Bill de Balasio has pulled ahead in the democratic primary contest for New York City Mayior. The New York Times-Siena College Poll finds de Blasio leading 32%, followed by Bill Thompson at 18%, Christine Quinn at 17%, Anthony Weiner at 11% and John Liu at 3%. A poll by amNewYork-News 12  shows de Blasio at 29%, Thompson at 24%, Quinn at 17%, Weiner at 10% and Liu at 5%.