Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

KY US Senate: McConnell Vulnerable in 2014

Posted Oct 31, 2013 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Kentucky suggests that incumbent GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell may have an uphill climb in next year's reelection race. In a hypothetical match up, he now trails Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, 45% to 43%. With a GOP primary challenger on his Tea Party right, McConnell now seems quite vulnerable, a position made more so by his earlier support of the government shutdown: 48% of Kentucky voters say they are less likely to support him for reelection because this support; 34% say they are more likely to support him. Stay tuned.  

 

NY Mayoralty: De Blassio With Huge Lead

Posted Oct 29, 2013 at 11:12 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by New York Times/Siena reports that Democrat Bill de Blasio holds a huge +45% lead among likely voters over Republican Joseph Lhota in the race for New York City mayor, 68% to 23%.

VA Governor: Democratic Lead Is Stable

Posted Oct 29, 2013 at 12:29 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Washington Post-Abt SRBI in Virginia reports that Democrat Terry McAuliffe maintains a considerable and stable +12% lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli, 51% to 39% among likely voters in next Tuesday's gubernatorial election. Libertarian Robert Sarvis is at 8%. The poll also indicates a huge gender gap: while the candidates are running even among men--with Cuccinelli at 45 percent and McAuliffe at 44 percent--the Democrat holds a huge lead among women, 58 percent to 34 percent."

Is The US House In Play For Democrats?

Posted Oct 28, 2013 at 7:25 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by the National Journal, "the government shutdown and debt crisis has made 14 House seats more winnable for Democrats, according to new independent ratings released Thursday from The Cook Political Report. There are now -- for the first time this cycle -- more Republican seats 'in play' than the 17 Democrats would need to win in order to take the majority in 2014."

 

2014 MD Governor's Race: Brown Leads Democratic Primary

Posted Oct 24, 2013 at 9:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Gonzales Research in Maryland reports that Anthony Brown leads the 2014 Democratic primary race for governor with 41%, followed by Doug Gansler at 21% and Heather Mizuer at 5%.
Gonzales Research observes: "Brown, who would be Maryland's first African-American governor, has the support of 56% of black voters, compared to 12% for Gansler. Among white voters, Brown and Gansler are in a virtual dead heat, with Brown receiving 29% and Gansler getting 28%."     

VA Governor: Democrat Jumps To A Significant Lead

Posted Oct 23, 2013 at 10:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen in Virgina reports that Democrat Terry McAuliffe has jumped to a +17% lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the gubernatorial race, 50% to 33%. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is at 8%.

NYC Mayoralty: de Blasio With Huge Lead

Posted Oct 22, 2013 at 8:21 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Quinnipiac in New York City, Democrat Bill de Blasio is headed for a huge win in the race for mayor over Republican Joseph Lhota. De Blasio leads by a staggering +44%, 68% to 24%.

VA Governor: Republican Decline Continues

Posted Oct 21, 2013 at 8:54 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by NBC4/NBC News/Mariat reports that Republican Ken Cuccinelli is falling further behind Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the race for Virginia governor, 46% to 38% among likely voters;   Libertarian Robert Sarvis is at 9% in the survey. McAuliffe's lead has increased by +3% from month ago when he led 43% to 38%.

Obama's Popularity Falters In Iowa

Posted Oct 18, 2013 at 7:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A Des Moines Register Iowa Poll reports that the President's job approval rating is faltering on the state: 58% of Iowa adults say they disapprove of the job he's doing; just 39% approve."    

President's Job Approval Rating Improves

Posted Oct 17, 2013 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Fox News suggests that Federal government shutdown may have improved the President's standing with Americans.  The survey reports that Obama's overall job rating has improved +5% over last month: 45% now approve, up from 40% in September. 

NJ Governor: Christie With Huge Lead

Posted Oct 16, 2013 at 10:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in New Jersey reports that incumbent Republican Gov. Chris Christie holds a huge lead over his Democratic challenger Barbara Buono, 62% to 33%.

 

NJ US Senate: Polls Show Significant Lead

Posted Oct 15, 2013 at 10:08 AM by Maurice Berger

 

Polls continue to report a significant lead for Democrat Cory Booker in tomorrow's special US Senate election in New Jersey. A just released Quinnipiac poll finds Booker leading Republican Steve Lonegan in tomorrow's U.S. Senate race by +14%, 54% to 40%.

NJ US Senate: Is Booker Way Ahead Or His His Lead Narrowing

Posted Oct 14, 2013 at 7:38 PM by Maurice Berger

Contradictory polling in this Wednesday's special election in New Jersey. According to a poll by Monmouth, Democrat Cory Booker's once huge lead over Republican Steve Lonegan in the U.S. Senate race has dropped to +10%--52% to 42%. But a just released poll by Rutgers reports a commanding Booker lead of +22%--58% to 36%

New York Mayoralty: De Blasio Landslide?

Posted Oct 14, 2013 at 10:41 AM by Maurice Berger

It's starting to look like a possible landslide in the race for mayor in New York. A poll by the Wall Street Journal/NBC New York reports that Democrat Bill de Blasio holds a commanding lead over Republican Joe Lhota, 67% to 23%.

MSNBC Poll: GOP Brand Badly Damaged

Posted Oct 11, 2013 at 6:05 PM by Maurice Berger

MSNBC writes: "The Republican Party has been badly damaged in the ongoing government shutdown and debt limit standoff, with a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finding that a majority of Americans blame the GOP for the shutdown, and with the party’s popularity declining to its lowest level. By a 22-point margin (53 percent to 31 percent), the public blames the Republican Party more for the shutdown than President Barack Obama – a wider margin of blame for the GOP than the party received during the poll during the last shutdown in 1995-96. Just 24 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion about the GOP, and only 21 percent have a favorable view of the Tea Party, which are both at all-time lows in the history of poll."

VA Governor: Is Voter Opinion Hardening?

Posted Oct 11, 2013 at 8:45 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Quinnipiac poll suggests that voter opinion in the Virginia governor's race may be hardening in favor of the Democrat Terry McAuliffe, who now leads by +8%--47% to 39%, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 8%.

US Senate: Booker Holds Comfortable Lead in NJ

Posted Oct 10, 2013 at 7:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in New Jersey reports that Democrat Cory Booker leads Republican Steve Lonegan by a comfortable +12% margin in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 41%.

VA Governor: Democrat Holds Solid Lead

Posted Oct 09, 2013 at 7:11 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Politico poll in reports that Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the race for governor by +10%, 52% to 42%. A poll by the Wason Center Reports that McAuliffe leads Cuccinelli by nine points among likely voters in the race for governor, 47% to 38%, with Robert Sarvis at 8%.

VA Governor: Three Polls Show Democrat In Lead

Posted Oct 08, 2013 at 9:21 AM by Maurice Berger

Three surveys all report a lead for Democrat Terry McAuliffe over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the upcoming Virginia governor's race: Emerson College: McAuliffe leads Cuccineli, 43% to 38%, with independent Robert Sarvis at 11%; University of Mary Washington reports a McAuliffe lead, 42% to 35%; and Hampton University has McAuliffe up 43% to 38% with Sarvis at 11%.

Americans Divided On Role Of Government

Posted Oct 07, 2013 at 11:17 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Gallup, "Americans continue to be about as likely to favor a more active government as a more limited one when asked about their preferred government role. Specifically, 34% fall on the more active side of a 5-point scale, including 19% who say the government "should take active steps in every area it can to try and improve the lives of its citizens." Thirty-two percent prefer a more limited role, including 16% who say government should provide only the most basic functions. Thirty-three percent place themselves in the middle."

 

Vast Majority Disapprove of Shutdown

Posted Oct 03, 2013 at 8:23 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by CBS News poll reports that 72% of Americans disapprove of the shut down of the federal government over the Affordable Care Act while 25% approve. The survey also notes: "Republicans in Congress receive more of the blame for the shutdown: 44% of Americans blame them, while 35% put more blame on President Obama and the Democrats in Congress. These views are virtually the same as they were last week before the shutdown, when Americans were asked who they would blame if a shutdown occurred."

Will the Government Shutdown Hurt The GOP?

Posted Oct 02, 2013 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger

According a new Quinnipiac poll, the government shutdown has great potential to hurt GOP chances in next year's federal cycle: "Looking at the 2014 Congressional races, voters pick a generic Democrat over a generic Republican candidate 43% to 34%, the widest Democratic margin measured so far."

By Wide Margin, Americans Oppose GOP Actions on Obamacare

Posted Oct 01, 2013 at 10:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac reports that American voters, by a wide margn, oppose Congress shutting down the federal government to block implementation of Obamacare, 72% to 22%.

 

Congress Gets Low Marks on Fiscal Showdown

Posted Oct 01, 2013 at 9:20 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup observes in a new survey: "As Congress heads into a major fiscal showdown that could result in a government shutdown and the U.S. defaulting on its debt, few Americans approve of the job that top congressional leaders are doing. Americans give relatively low job approval ratings to Republican House Speaker John Boehner (37%), Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (33%), Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (39%), and Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (35%)." Here is Gallup's chart:

 

Net Approval Rating of Nation's Top Four Congressional Leaders, September 2013