Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

VA US Senate: Democrat Way Ahead

Posted Jan 30, 2014 at 8:24 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Christopher Newport University in Virginia reports that U.S. Sen. Mark Warner(leads GOP challenger Ed Gillespie by 20 points, 50% to 30%. With a 63% job approval rating, Warner is in an excellent position for reelection.

Congress Is Very Unpopular

Posted Jan 29, 2014 at 8:06 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "the enduring unpopularity of Congress appears to have seeped into the nation's 435 congressional districts, as a record-low percentage of registered voters, 46%, now say the U.S. representative in their own congressional district deserves re-election. Equally historic, the share of voters saying most members of Congress deserve re-election has fallen to 17%, a new nadir."

KY US Senate: McConnell Modestly Ahead

Posted Jan 28, 2014 at 8:54 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite challenges from his right Flank, a Human Events-Gravis Marketing poll in Kentucky reports that Sen. Mitch McConnell is  ahead in his quest for reelection: He leads Democratic challenger Allison Lundergran Grimes by five points, 42% to 37%. McConnell also leads GOP primary challenger Matt Bevin by double-digits, 53% to 31%

Obama's Personal Image Improves

Posted Jan 27, 2014 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Associated Press-GfK reports that President Obama's has improved considerably after a sharp decline during the government shutdown late last year, with 58% now seeing him as very or somewhat likable, an improvement of +9% since October. The President's approval rating remain problematic, with 45% approving of his job performance, 53% disapproving.

Do Democrats Have An Advantage In The Electoral College?

Posted Jan 23, 2014 at 12:46 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Dan Balz, the bar may have become higher for the Republican party in the search for electoral vote. He writes: "A recent conversation with a veteran of GOP presidential campaigns raised this question: Which, if any, of the recent battleground states are likely to become more Republican by 2016? The consensus: very few. . . .That reality highlights one problem Republicans face as they seek to regain the White House after six years under President Obama. Lots of factors affect elections: the quality of the candidates, the state of the economy, the effectiveness of the campaigns. But in a country whose demographics continue to change, Republicans will begin this campaign with one significant disadvantage."

Christie Support Continues To Slip

Posted Jan 22, 2014 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger

Are GOP NJ Governor Chris Christie's national aspirations slipping? A new poll by Quinnipiac reports that Christie now trails Democrat Hillary Clinton in a possible presidential match up, 46% to 38%.Last month, the two were tied at 40% each.

Liberalism On The Upswing

Posted Jan 21, 2014 at 2:10 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Gallup, "Americans continue to be more likely to identify as conservatives (38%) than as liberals (23%). But the conservative advantage is down to 15 percentage points as liberal identification edged up to its highest level since Gallup began regularly measuring ideology in the current format in 1992."

Christie Falling Behind Clinton In Potential 2016 Matchup

Posted Jan 20, 2014 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger

While a new poll by NBC News/Maristl reports that nearly seven in 10 Americans say the George Washington Bridge scandal engulfing New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's administration hasn't changed their opinion of him, he has lost considerable ground to Hillary Clinton in an early hypothetical presidential match up. He now trails Clinton by a -13%, 50% to 37% among nationwide voters.

Is The Two-Party System In Peril?

Posted Jan 16, 2014 at 8:42 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Gallup reports that 42% of Americans identify as political independents in 2013. This number is the highest in 25 years. Republican identification dropped to 25%, the lowest over the same period. Democratic identification, at 31%, remains unchanged from the last four years.

Obama's Approval Improves

Posted Jan 15, 2014 at 8:07 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a poll by Rasmussen Reports, President Obama's approval rating is now even at 49% to 49% among likely voters. Rasmussen notes that "this is the first time since October 27 that the president's total disapproval has fallen below 50%. Disapproval peaked at 56% on November 20."

Christie Approval Remains Strong

Posted Jan 14, 2014 at 9:42 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press reports that Gov. Chris Christie's approval rating is 59%, with just 32% disapproving. This despite the scandal surrounding his administration. 

 

 

Georgia Governor: How Far Ahead Is The Incumbent?

Posted Jan 13, 2014 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger

Two conflicting views of this years Gubernatorial race in Georgia. A poll by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Republican Gov. Nathan Deal leads Democrat Jason Carter, 47% to 38%--a +9% advantage. A new Insider Advantage survey finds Deal with a huge lead over Carter, 44% to 22%.

IS PA GOP Governor In Trouble In Reelection Race?

Posted Jan 09, 2014 at 9:38 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Quinnipiac in Pennsylvania reports that GOP Gov. Tom Corbett has a negative approval rating at 36% to 53% approval rating. With 56% (to 36%) saying that he does not deserve reelection--and the poll showing him trailing seven possible Democratic challengers--Corbett's chances for reelection appear to be diminishing.

Gap In Personal and Private Conceptions of Satisfaction

Posted Jan 08, 2014 at 8:13 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "Americans remain overwhelmingly satisfied with their personal lives (79%), while far fewer are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States (23%). The 56-percentage-point gap in Americans' satisfaction with personal lives versus the nation is among the highest Gallup has measured over the past 34 years, and may indicate that many do not see the problems facing the country as relevant to their own lives." Here is Gallup's Chart:

Trend: Personal Satisfaction vs. National Satisfaction

Sharp Party Divide On Filibuster Rules

Posted Jan 07, 2014 at 9:09 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a poll by National Journal, 59% of Democrats support Democratic Sen. Harry Reid's move "to gut the ability of the minority party to stall presidential nominees. The poll indicated a sharp party divide: Republicans strongly disagreed, with only 34% saying that the decision to permit nominees to be confirmed with only 51 votes was the right decision. 60% thought it was the wrong one."

War in Afghanistan Most Unpopular In US Polling History

Posted Jan 06, 2014 at 12:23 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by CNN/ORC reports that just 17% of Americans support the war in Afghanistan; 82% are opposed. These numbers represent the lowest support for a war in the history of U.S. polling. To put things in perspective, pollster Keating Holland notes that  "opposition to the Iraq war never got higher than 69% in CNN polling while U.S. troops were in that country, and while the Vietnam War was in progress, no more than six in 10 ever told Gallup's interviewers that war was a mistake."

President's Approval Rating Rebounds

Posted Jan 02, 2014 at 8:03 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Bloomberg, President Obama "has picked up five points in public approval since he's gone away to Hawaii for a year-end family vacation. . . . The president's public approval rating was hanging at 39% in the days before Christmas, by the Gallup Poll's average of daily tracking surveys. Today... his approval has risen to 44%. His disapproval rating, 54% pre-Christmas, is down to 49%."