Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Americans View China Unfavorably

Posted Feb 27, 2014 at 8:09 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "despite the announcement of historic reforms late last year that would shift China's economy to a more consumer-driven model, Americans still see China in the same, mostly unfavorable, way they did in early 2013. Forty-three percent of U.S. adults say they have a very or mostly favorable opinion of China, while 53% see it very or mostly unfavorably."

A Clear Majority View Clinton Favorably

Posted Feb 26, 2014 at 7:43 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "a clear majority of Americans, 59%, still view Hillary Clinton favorably a year after she left her post as secretary of state. Clinton's current rating is noticeably lower than the 64% she averaged while serving in President Barack Obama's cabinet."

KS Governor: Brownback In Trouble In Reelection Bid

Posted Feb 25, 2014 at 7:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in Kansas reports that conservative GOP Gov. Sam Brownback slightly trails Democratic challenger Paul Davis un his re-election race by +2%, 42% to 40%. Brownback would appear to be in trouble in the state: "Only 33% of voters in the state approve of the job Brownback is doing, compared to 51% who disapprove."

NH US Senate: Democrat Incumbent With Solid Lead

Posted Feb 24, 2014 at 8:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in New Hampshire reports that Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads possible GOO challenger Scott Brown by +9%, 47% to 38%.

Democratic Governor Popular In Minnesota

Posted Feb 20, 2014 at 9:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Star Tribune in Minnesota reports that Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton heads into his re-election race with the highest job approval rating of his term: 58% think Dayton is doing a good job; 29% say they disapprove. 

MD Governor: Anthony Brown Leads Democratic Field

Posted Feb 19, 2014 at 7:55 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Baltimore Sun in Maryland reports that Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown holds a significant lead in the Democratic contest for governor over Douglas Gansler, 35% to 14%, with Heather Mizeur aat 10%; 40% remain undecided.

Hawaii US Senate: Is Brian Schatz In Trouble?

Posted Feb 18, 2014 at 12:37 PM by Maurice Berger

A just released Hawaii poll reports that the Democratic incumbent US Senator, Brian Schatz, may be in trouble in his reelection bid. The survey reports that Democratic U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa has pulled ahead of Schatz in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, 48% to 40%, with 11% undecided.

Democrat Leads F-13 Special Election

Posted Feb 17, 2014 at 8:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Tampa Bay Times in Florida reports that Democrat Alex Sink holds a +7% lead over Republican David Jolly in the FL-13 special congressional election, 42% to 35%.

Which States Are The Most Condervative/Liberal?

Posted Feb 13, 2014 at 7:36 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new analysis by Gallup, "Wyoming was the most conservative U.S. state in 2013, replacing Alabama, which fell to 10th place. The District of Columbia was once again the most liberal area in the United States, with Vermont and Massachusetts having the highest percentage of liberals among the 50 states." Here is Gallup's Chart:

Top 10 Conservative States, 2013Top 10 Liberal States, 2013

Gallup: Majority Still Disaaprove Of Healthcare Law

Posted Feb 12, 2014 at 7:42 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Gallup, a majority of Americans still disapprove of the healthcare law: "President Barack Obama defended his signature legislative achievement, the Affordable Care Act, before Congress and the nation last week in his State of the Union address, but public opinion toward the law is little changed since November. Americans are still more likely to disapprove (51%) than approve (41%) of the law." Here is Gallup's chart: 

Trend: Do you generally approve or disapprove of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, signed into law by President Obama that restructured the U.S. healthcare system?

Is GOP Poised To Take Senate From Democrats

Posted Feb 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by The Monkey Cage, Republicans now have a 54% chance of retaking control of the U.S. Senate in this year's midterm elections: "Our initial Senate forecast for 2014 suggested that Republicans had a solid chance of taking back the Senate.  Now we want to show how they can do it.  Our model suggests, in fact, if Republicans win the Senate elections in only four states -- Alaska, Louisiana, Iowa, and Montana -- then they are very likely to take control of the chamber."

KY US Senate: McConnell Falling Behind

Posted Feb 10, 2014 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Could the Kentucky U.S. Senate race this result result in a Democratic pickup? A new poll suggests that it's possible. The survey by Herald-Leader/WKYT Bluegrass reports that Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes holds a modest +4% advantage over GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, 46% to 42%. One big problem the the Republican: his approval rating is under water at 32% to 60%.

FL Governor: Democrat Crist With Lead

Posted Feb 06, 2014 at 8:27 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the University of Florida reports that Democrat Charlie Crist leads incumbent GOP Gov. Rick Scott in the race for governor, 47% to 40%.

Alaska US Senate: Democratic Incumbent Ahead

Posted Feb 05, 2014 at 9:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in Alaska reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich "continues to lead his potential Republican opponents for reelection by small margins, and that third party candidates could play a spoiler role in helping him win this fall."

Americans Down On Their Political Leaders

Posted Feb 04, 2014 at 7:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Washington Post/ABC News reports that a mere 37% of Americans say they have either a "good amount or a great deal" of confidence in President Obama to make the right decisions for the country's future; 63% do not. Congress doeseven less well in the survey: just 27% percent say they have confidence in congressional Democrats to make the right decisions for the country; 72% do not. For the GOP, it's even worse with just 19% having confidence in Republicans, and 80% not. The poll notes: "For the GOP, the lack of faith in their decision-making includes their own followers. Just 36% of self-identified Republicans say they believe their party's lawmakers will make good decisions. In contrast, a majority of Democrats have confidence in their congressional party."

Clinton In Commanding Position For Nomination

Posted Feb 03, 2014 at 6:05 PM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Washington Post-ABC News reports that former U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton "trounces her potential primary rivals with 73% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, reinforcing a narrative of inevitability around her nomination if she runs. Vice President Biden is second with 12%, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is third with 8%."