Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Trump As Third Party Candidate

Posted Mar 30, 2016 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger

With Donald Trump breaking his pledge not to run as a third party candidate, the question is: how much damage could he do to the GOP candidate. The answer appears to be considerable. A Rasmussen Reports poll in early March, 36% of of GOP voters said they were "likely" to vote for Trump; 24% "very likely. These numbers would assure victory for the Democratic candidate, one reason why it might be difficult for Trump the nomination if he comes into the convention with the lion's share of delegates.

27 March Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Mar 27, 2016 at 12:54 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 27 March 2016 ranking of announced and presumptive GOP candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Donald Trump

2. Ted Cruz


3. John Kasich



Hillary Clinton, Unbeatable?

Posted Mar 26, 2016 at 4:46 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack now believes that it appears to be mathematically impossible for Bernie Sanders to secure the Democratic presidential nomination. By our current projections, based on available polling, state voting history and reports on the ground, PollTrack estimates Hillary Clinton's delegate count to be somewhere in the range of 2,700 to 2,900, including pledged super delegates. 2383 are needed to secure the Democratic nomination.

Final Democratic Super Tuesday Predictions March 1, 2016

Posted Mar 01, 2016 at 2:00 PM by Maurice Berger

Colorado Caucus: Clinton

Minnesota Caucus: Clinton

Tennessee: Clinton

Arkansas: Clinton

Vermont: Sanders

Texas: Clinton

Virginia: Clinton

Georgia: Clinton

Alabama: Clinton

Virginia: Clinton

Final GOP Super Tuesday Predictions: March 1 2016

Posted Mar 01, 2016 at 1:54 PM by Maurice Berger

Texas: Cruz

Virginia: Trump

Georgia: Trump

Minn Caucus: Trump

Massachusetts: Trump

Arkansans: Trump

Alaska: Trump

Alabama: Trump

Vermont: Trump