Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Trump Likely To Win

Posted Nov 09, 2016 at 12:57 AM by Maurice Berger

Last minute vote tallies from Wisconsin suggest a Trump win, and thus a probable closing off of a plausible path to victory for Clinton.

Electoral Math

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 11:24 PM by Maurice Berger

Electoral math: Trump has not picked off a single state from Clinton's firewall. And Clinton has not picked off a single Trump firewall state. If Trump picks off Michigan or Wisconsin, he probably wins. Unless Clinton wins Arizona, but that's unlikely. If Clinton keeps Michigan and Wisconsin and hangs on to PA, NH, and NV she wins. But Trump seems to be in a stronger place in Wisconsin, less so in Michigan.

Clinton's Working Class White Voter Problem

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 10:54 PM by Maurice Berger

State by state, Clinton is under-performing Obama's 2012 numbers with white working class voters. And this is the main reason why she has lost Ohio and why her margins are much closer in many of the swing states.

Trump Wins Ohio, Clinton Virginia

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 10:40 PM by Maurice Berger

As expected.

Michigan: Mixed Results

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 10:13 PM by Maurice Berger

Clinton is under-performing in a number of counties in Michigan, over-performing in a few. But most of the big Democratic strongholds have been slow to report.

Florida: Closing In On Clinton

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 9:32 PM by Maurice Berger

Although hundreds of thousands of votes in Democratic counties have yet to be counted in Florida, the math is getting a bit more difficult for Clinton.

Slow Reporting Of Larger Counties

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 9:30 PM by Maurice Berger

Waiting on large Democratic counties in Virginia, NC, Florida, PA, Michigan, etc. Trump is holding his own--and often out-performing Romney in 2012 in rural and some suburban counties. And Democratic counties are extremely slow to report.

Slow Data

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 9:27 PM by Maurice Berger

Data continues to come in slowly from key battleground states, so this will be a long night.

Virginia: Democratic Counties Are Slow To Report

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 8:41 PM by Maurice Berger

Trump is now ahead in Virginia. But the vast majority of uncounted votes are in vastly Democratic counties. Once again, the large urban and suburban counties tend to process votes more slowly, given the vast number of ballots that need to be counted.

Florida: Most Uncounted Ballots Are In Democratic Counties

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 8:20 PM by Maurice Berger

Re: Florida, most of the uncounted ballots are now in the large Democratic counties in South Florida. So things still bode well for Clinton in the state.

North Carolina: Clinton Is Out-Performing Obama's 2012 Numbers

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 8:11 PM by Maurice Berger

Like, Florida, Clinton is out-performing Obama's 2012 numbers. He lost the state by a whisker. But Trump counties have not all reported consistent. But at 85% in Durham County, Clinton is building a firewall. But many of the smaller GOP counties are still out.

Ohio

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 8:07 PM by Maurice Berger

Polling over the past three days in Ohio have showed the race moving away from Trump. Our guess is that the state will still be close, but we are now wondering if Clinton might win the state. Especially if the larger, urban counties are coming in more slowly.

Do NOT Be Fooled By Early Returns

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 7:51 PM by Maurice Berger

If you are watching election returns, a few things to know. Small, often rural and GOP counties report first. They tend to have small populations relative to urban, Democratic strongholds. They tend to come in later and have a much greater structural burden, re: counting hundreds of thousands of ballots. So keep things in perspective, whether you are Clinton or Trump.

Slow Data

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 7:18 PM by Maurice Berger

Data will slowly drift in the early hours of ballot counting. So no leads or trends to report at this point.

Internal Sources: Trump Short of 270 EVs

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 6:07 PM by Maurice Berger

Internal campaign sources from both the Trump and Clinton campaign believe that the GOP candidate will fall short in the hunt for electoral votes. Stay tuned.

Corrected: Latest from Votecastr: Eight for Eight Clinton

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 6:05 PM by Maurice Berger

According to Votecastr, which calculates approximate votes tallies on an ongoing basis through election day, Clinton is leading in eight out of eight key battleground states:

Florida: Clinton 49% Trump 45%

Iowa: Clinton 47% Trump 46% 

Colorado: Clinton 47% Trump 42%

Nevada: Clinton 47% Trump 44%

New Hampshire: Clinton 47% Trump 45%

Ohio: Clinton 46% Trump 45%

Pennsylvania: Clinton 48% Trump 45%

Wisconsin: Clinton 49% Trump 42%

Exit polling is provided by Votecastr (and Edison, which is used by all other media outlets). Their tally updates all day as voting patterns change. The accuracy of their novel methodology is, of course, yet to be proved.

Latest from Votecastr

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 4:43 PM by Maurice Berger

According to Votecastr, which calculates approximate votes tallies on an ongoing basis through election day, Clinton is leading infive  out of seven key battleground states. Over the past few houses, their tallies have shown the race tightening somewhat. It is also unclear whether they have fixed their calculation problem to include all three voter tiers--early, pre-election polling, and election day voting:

Florida: Clinton 48% Trump 45% D+3

Iowa: Trump 46% Clinton 45% R+1

Colorado: Clinton 46% Trump 43% D+3

Nevada: Clinton 46% Trump 45% D+1

Ohio: Clinton 46% Trump 45% R+1

Pennsylvania: Clinton 48% Trump 45% D+3

Wisconsin: Clinton 48% Trump 43% D+5

These numbers are based only on election day voting numbers. So we'll need to wait until they're reconciled with early vote analysis and pre-election polling. Exit polling is provided by Votecastr (and Edison, which is used by all other media outlets). Their tally updates all day as voting patterns change. The accuracy of their novel methodology is, of course, yet to be proved. And complete tallys are not, as yet, available.

CORRECTED: Clinton Leading in Seven of Eight Battlegrounds?

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 2:36 PM by Maurice Berger

According to Votecastr, which calculates approximate votes tallies on an ongoing basis through election day, Clinton is leading in seven out of eight key battleground states:

Florida: Clinton 49% Trump 45%

Iowa: Trump 46% Clinton 45%

Colorado: Clinton 47% Trump 42%

Nevada: Clinton 47% Trump 44%

New Hampshire: Clinton 47% Trump 43%

Ohio: Clinton 46% Trump 45%

Pennsylvania: Clinton 48% Trump 44%

Wisconsin: Clinton 49% Trump 43%

This numbers are based only on election day voting numbers. So we'll need to wait until they're reconciled with early vote analysis and pre-election polling. Exit polling is provided by Votecastr (and Edison, which is used by all other media outlets). Their tally updates all day as voting patterns change. The accuracy of their novel methodology is, of course, yet to be proved. And complete tallys are not, as yet, available.

Clinton Leading In Florida?

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 10:57 AM by Maurice Berger

According to the new voting analysis site, Votecastr, Hillary Clinton has a roughly +3% lead over Donald Trump in early voting in Florida.

FINAL Today's Map: Clinton-322 Trump-216 TCTC-0

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 9:20 AM by Maurice Berger

Our final tally for the hunt for electoral votes! Checks out Today's and Tomorrow's map for the details.

FINAL Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +3.7%

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.6%

Trump: 41.9%

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Clinton +3.7%

PollTrack Live Blogging Tomorrow Evening!

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 8:05 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack political director, Dr. Maurice Berger, qill be live blogging election results starting at 7:00 pm EST tomorrow evening, 8 November. Tune in for up to the minute analysis.

 

Check the site for updates on electoral patterns beginning tomorrow morning, 11:00 EST.

Today's Map: Clinton-322 Trump-216 TCTC-0

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 7:01 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Tomorrow's Map: Clinton-322 Trump-216 TCTC-0

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 5:58 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Tomorrow's Map for where the race is headed in its final day!

Today's Map: Clinton-307 Trump-216 TCTC-15

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 5:56 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +3.6%

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 10:48 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.2%

Trump: 41.6%

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Clinton +3.6%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +3.2%

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 9:58 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.9%

Trump: 41.7%

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Clinton +3.2%

Tomorrow's Map: Clinton-323 Trump-215 TCTC-0

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 9:52 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out Tomorrow's Map for where the race is headed in its final day!

Today's Map: Clinton-308 Trump-215 TCTC-15

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 9:48 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +2.8%

Posted Nov 06, 2016 at 9:50 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.9%

Trump: 42.1%

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Clinton +2.8%

What's Going On With The 538 Website?

Posted Nov 06, 2016 at 9:40 AM by Maurice Berger

Why are Nate Silver's numbers more bullish for Trump over at 538, in contrast to virtually all other polling analysis sites (including this one)? Here's an interesting take on why 538's election model differs from all other polling analysis websites.

Ultimately, there is something strange about Nate Silver's methodology in this cycle, as he goes into each poll and "adjusts" it's numbers, mostly in favor of Trump. Is he hedging his bets: remember, he loudly pontificated that Trump could not get the GOP nomination. (We, at PollTrack.com, began to predict a sharp trend towards Trump in August 2015.) Silver did so not based on numbers but his personal opinion, as a pundit reading the GOP electorate. (He also confidently claimed that the Cubs would not win the World Series.)

So now he appears to be bending over backwards not to underestimate Trump. (despite the fact that the general electorate is FAR more diverse and complex than the Republican base). He's adjusting the internals of each poll, thus possibly skewing the Electoral College to show a closer race than other analysis sites (including PollTrack). This doesn't mean that Silver is necessarily wrong, but these adjustments are not explained. How does a poll from an organization with an A+ accuracy rating (according to Silver himself) go from +1 Clinton in Florida to +3 Trump after 538's adjustment of it. No explanation. And frankly, illogical given the quality of the polling of the organization in question.

PollTrack never goes inside polls to adjust their results. If we detect a clearly faulty methodology, we drop the survey from our polling average. This is standard practice. To do otherwise is extremely unorthodox. Maybe Silver is on to something, but without explaining these "adjustments," his conclusions run counter to virtually all of the other polling analysis websites

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +2.7%

Posted Nov 05, 2016 at 5:12 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.0%

Trump: 42.3%

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Clinton +2.7%

Tomorrow's Map: Clinton-307 Trump-216 TCTC-15

Posted Nov 04, 2016 at 7:03 PM by Maurice Berger

Check Tomorrow's Map to see where the hunt for electoral votes is headed.

Today's Map: Clinton-297 Trump-215 TCTC-26

Posted Nov 04, 2016 at 6:59 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +3.1%

Posted Nov 04, 2016 at 5:12 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.9%

Trump: 41.8%

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Clinton +3.1%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +3.0%

Posted Nov 03, 2016 at 5:58 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.0%

Trump: 42.0%

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Clinton +3.0%

Today's Map: Clinton-312 Trump-215 TCTC-11

Posted Nov 03, 2016 at 3:29 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +2.5%

Posted Nov 03, 2016 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.5%

Trump: 42.0%

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Clinton +2.5%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +2.9%

Posted Nov 02, 2016 at 7:14 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.1%

Trump: 41.4%

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Clinton +2.9%

Today's Map: Clinton-323 Trump-215 TCTC-0

Posted Nov 02, 2016 at 3:16 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the latest on the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +4.1%

Posted Nov 01, 2016 at 5:04 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.5%

Trump: 40.4%

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Clinton +4.1%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +6.0%

Posted Oct 31, 2016 at 6:17 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.8%

Trump: 39.8%

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Clinton +6.0%