Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Gallup: US Satisfaction Index Has Hit Ten Month High

Posted Mar 21, 2012 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "26% of Americans are now satisfied with the way things are going in the country, up from 22% in February and 18% in January. Satisfaction has not been this high since last May when it previously hit 26% -- buoyed by the death of Osama bin Laden -- and before that, April 2010 when it was 27%." While this number is still low, it suggest relative, nd perhaps politically valuable, improvement for the President's reelection effort.  Here is Gallup's chart:

Satisfied with the U.S.?

Polls Report Tight Iowa Race, With Romney in The Lead

Posted Jan 02, 2012 at 4:29 PM by Maurice Berger

A survey in Iowa from Public Policy Polling survey, conducted Saturday and Sunday, reports a virtual three-way tie in advance of the Iowa caucuses. In the poll, Ron Paul leads with 20 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 19 percent and Rick Santorum at 18 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll in Iowa shows Romney with an insignificant lead; he's at 23%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 18%, Newt Gingrich at 16%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. And a survey by American Research Group shows a slightly larger lead for Romney, with 22%, followed by Paul at 17%, Santorum at 16% and Gingrich at 15%.

Romney, Paul Top Iowa Poll, With Santorum Coming On Strong

Posted Jan 02, 2012 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey from the highly respect--and often very accurate--Des Moines Register reports that Mitt Romney now leads with 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7%. The bog news may well be Santorum's surprisingly strong showing: "If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21%, pushing Paul to third, at 18%. Romney remains the same, at 24%."

Election 2012: Close Race In Iowa?

Posted Dec 30, 2011 at 2:33 AM by Maurice Berger

A series of new polls suggests that the race to win the GOP Iowa Caucus may indeed be very close. A survey by InsiderAdvantage reports that the race is deadlocked, with Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul tied at 17% support each. Rick Santorum, whose numbers in Iowa have been rising in recent days, comes in at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 12%, Rick Perry at 11% and Jon Huntsman at 3%. Two other polls paint a similar picture of a very close race: American Research Group poll shows Romney leading with 22%, followed by Gingrich at 17%, Paul at 16% and Santorum at 11%; Rasmussen reports that Romney edgies Paul, 23% to 22%, with Santorum at 16% and Gingrich and Perry at 13% each.

Gallup: Most Admired Men and Women of 2011

Posted Dec 29, 2011 at 2:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Gallup, reports that "Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama continue to be named by Americans as the Most Admired Woman and Most Admired Man living today in any part of the world. Clinton has been the Most Admired Woman each of the last 10 years, and Obama has been the Most Admired Man four years in a row. Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama, Sarah Palin, and Condoleezza Rice round out the top five Most Admired women, while the top five Most Admired men also include George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Billy Graham, and Warren Buffett." Here is Gallup's chart: 

Most Admired Woman, 2011

Most Admired Man, 2011

PPP Survey: Paul Leads In Iowa

Posted Dec 28, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Ron Paul maintains a modest lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 24% to 20%, with Newt Gingrich in third place at 13%. Michele Bachmann comes in at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Gallup Tracking: Gingrich Continues To Hold slight National Lead

Posted Dec 27, 2011 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

According to the latest tracking poll from Gallup Newt Gingrich continues to hold a slight lead nationally among Republican voters with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Santorum at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 1%. Factoring in other polls, PollTrack now believes that Gingrich's advantage nationally will not hold through the Iowa caucus on 8 January. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Three GOP Candidates Bunched At The Top

Posted Dec 26, 2011 at 2:21 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll released by American Research Group in Iowa reports a crowded field at top, with three candidates virtually tied for the lead: Ron Paul leads the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 20% and Newt Gingrich at 19%. As for the rest, they're all in the singles digits, with Rick Perry coming in at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 6% and Rick Santorum at 4%.

Election 2012: Can Romney Wrap It Up Early

Posted Dec 23, 2011 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

With the implosion of yet another GOP candidate (Newt Gingrich) and the ascendance of Mitt Romney to the top of the pack in Iowa, the question now on the table is whether Romney will win the nomination and wrap it up early. With several polls reporting a significant lead for Romney in New Hampshire--and now leading in Iowa (A Rasmussen survey in Iowa shows Romney leading Ron Paul, 25% to 20%)--PollTrack thinks that this could be a possibility, though Gingrich continues to lead in other early (and more conservative) voting states, such as South Carolina and (marginally) Florida. Stay tuned.

(The Rasmussen Poll also shows Newt Gingrich at 17%, Rick Perry at 10%, Rick Santorum at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 4%.)

Election 2012: Iowa Too Close To Call

Posted Dec 22, 2011 at 3:13 AM by Maurice Berger

With Newt Gingrich the newest GOP contender to implode in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, the race for the Iowa caucus is now too close to call. A poll from We Ask America reports a very competitive race the Iowa. Ron Paul leads with 19%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Gingrich at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 11%, Rick Santorum at 9% and Jon Huntsman at 4%. Another poll, this one from Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG shows a very close race for the top two contenders--Paul with 28%, followed by Gingrich at 25%--with Romney further behind at 18%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

President Obama's Approval Rating Rebounds

Posted Dec 21, 2011 at 12:56 AM by Maurice Berger

In a report that spells good news for President Obama, his job approval rating has risen to a near majority--49%--according to a just released survey by ABC News/Washington Post  The survey notes that this is Obama's "best showing since spring, and one, if it holds, that may put his re-election prospects back within reach."

Election 2012: Gingrich Leads In CA, PA, and VA

Posted Dec 20, 2011 at 3:11 AM by Maurice Berger

In case you're wonderful about other GOP primary states, here a breakdown of the standing of the GOP field in several of the larger states. In CA, PA, and VA, at least, Gingrich appears to be in the lead. Given the erosion of Gingrich's support in most recent polling, however, PollTrack suggests that these results should be view with a good degree of skepticism. In any case, Newt Gingrich leads by considerable margins in the key states:

CALIFORNIA (Public Policy Institute): Gingrich 33%, Romney 25%, Paul 9%, Bachmann 7%, Perry 4%, Santorum 4% and Huntsman 2%.

PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Polling and Research):  Gingrich 8%, Bachmann 6%, and Perry 2%.

VIRGINIA (Public Policy Polling survey): Gingrich 41%, Romney 15%, Perry 8%, Bachmann 8%, Santorum 6%, Paul 6% and Huntsman 3%.

 

PollTrack: Storm Warning Ahead For Gingrich

Posted Dec 19, 2011 at 1:45 AM by Maurice Berger

While a pronounced surge for Newt Gingrich in the contest for the 2012 GOP nomination has been evident in recent weeks, the latest polling, plus the internals of some upcoming surveys, suggests that Gingrich may have some tough sailing ahead. Gallup daily tracking, for example, indicates a sharp decline in Gingrich's support. Gingrich now leads Mitt Romney by only +4%--28% to 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Rick Perry at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. PollTrack has learned that several national surveys--as well as statewide polls--will report similar, relatively rapid, declines in Gingrich's standing in the GOP field. Stay tuned.

Is the Momentum Shifting Back To Romney

Posted Dec 16, 2011 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger

As his opponents continue to barrage Newt Gingrich with negative soundbites, can the ex-congressman maintain his momentum. A poll released last week in Iowa, by Rasmussen suggests that the tide may be turning once again the the quest for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. The poll now reports that Mitt Romney has recaptured back the lead with 23%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Ron Paul at 18%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 5%. Given the strong, religious-conservative bent of the Iowa Republican caucus-goers, this trend, if sustained, could be really big news.

Contradictory Polls In Michigan GOP Primary

Posted Dec 16, 2011 at 2:01 AM by Maurice Berger

Two polls just out. Two different readings of the relatively early (February 28) GOP presidential primary race in Michigan. A survey from MIRS reports that Romney leads with a double-digit lead in the state where he was raised, 48% to 33%. (Michele Bachmann comes in at 11% and Rick Perry at 7%). Another poll from Strategic National shows Newt Gingrich edging Mitt Romney in Michigan, where Romney spent his childhood, 31% to 29%. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Internal GOP Polls Show Gingrich Slipping in Iowa

Posted Dec 15, 2011 at 1:47 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Politico, "A week-long blitz of negative ads from Ron Paul and "Restore Our Future," the pro-Mitt Romney super PAC, have taken a toll on Newt Gingrich's standing in Iowa, internal numbers from the Rick Perry and Romney camps show, according to multiple sources. Sources didn't provide specific numbers on how far he's slipped, but it's perceptible in both camps' numbers, the sources said. Perry has been inching up, the sources said - in part thanks to his faith-based push but largely because of his controversial anti-gay rights ad, and the big question is whether he draws at all from Romney and pushes him down out of the top three finishers in the state. The person who is holding strong, according to the internal numbers, is Paul, who has a true shot of winning the caucuses, according to several Iowa Republican insiders surveying ground games and energy."

Given the volatility of the GOP race thus far, PollTrack believes that these internal numbers could well spell a decline of support for Gingrich as earlier idealization is giving way to the political reality of frontrunner now being bombarded with negative advertisements and soundbites, many generated by his opponents. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Gingrich Up In SC and Florida

Posted Dec 14, 2011 at 1:14 AM by Maurice Berger

Two new polls by NBC News-Marist report that Newt Gingrich has considerable leads over Mitt Romney in South Carolina and Florida.
In South Carolina, Gingrich leads Romney by 42% to 23% (no other GOP candidate rises above single digits). In Florida, Gingrich leads Romney by 44% to 29%.

Election 2012: Gingrich Holds Big National Lead

Posted Dec 13, 2011 at 10:42 AM by Maurice Berger

Another survey, this one from Fox News reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Gingrich leads with 36%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick Santorum at 4%, and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Presidential Electoral Maps: Today/Election Day

Posted Dec 12, 2011 at 1:09 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack has made changes to both the "Today" and "Election Day" presidential maps that reflect somewhat improving numbers for President Obama in several key battleground states--numbers helped by the muddled and uncertain GOP field. In "Today's Map," the president has pulled even with the GOP in terms of relative electoral strength across the 50 states and DC. Similarly, "Election Day's Map" shows the president in a near tie with a generic GOP candidate, with more than 80-electoral votes projected to be too-close-too-call on Election Day 2012.

Americans' Perception Of The GOP Field Grows Negative

Posted Dec 09, 2011 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey released by Pew Research reports that more Americans say their impression of the GOP field is worsening than improving: 31% of respondents say that their impression of the GOP field is getting worse as they learn more about the candidates, while 14% says it's getting better. Another 50% say their impression remains the same.

Election 2012: Gingrich Holds Significant Lead In Iowa

Posted Dec 08, 2011 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll in Iowa, this one by New York Times-CBS News reports that Newt Gingrich has pull into a significant lead over GOP rivals with 31%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at 16%, Rick Perry at 11% and the rest of the field in single digits.

Election 2012: Tea Party Support Drops Significantly

Posted Dec 07, 2011 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Pew Research reports that the Tea Party, since the 2010 midterm elections, "has not only lost support nationwide, but also in the congressional districts represented by members of the House Tea Party Caucus." The survey concludes: "More Americans say they disagree (27%) than agree (20%) with the Tea Party movement. A year ago, in the wake of the sweeping GOP gains in the midterm elections, the balance of opinion was just the opposite: 27% agreed and 22% disagreed with the Tea Party." Although this decline may have an effect on the general election next fall, PollTrack believes that Tea Party influence will still effect the GOP primaries, where a smaller number of voters overall intensify the power of the waning, but still active party.

Election 2012: Gingrich Maintains Double Digit Lead Nationally

Posted Dec 06, 2011 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Poll Position reports that Newt Gingrich's national lead has widened. He tops the GOP presidential field with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Perry at 3%, Jon Huntsman at 2% and Rick Santorum at 2%. As PollTrack predicted last week, Gingrich appears to be benefiting from the defection of conservative candidates, such as Herman Cain. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Gingrich Takes the Lead In Iowa

Posted Dec 05, 2011 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

The impressive Des Moines Register Iowa Poll--they predicted Barack Obama's surge down to the percentage point in the Democratic caucus back in 2008--has some good news for Newt Gingrich: according to the survey, he has "carved out a clear lead" in the GOP presidential race with 25%, followed by Ron Paul at 18% and Mitt Romney at 16%. Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain come in at 8%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. Significantly, as pollster J. Ann Seltzer notes, "the results show Gingrich's ascendancy has the potential to grow . . . More respondents choose Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate. Together, 43% of likely caucusgoers pick him as first or second."

Similarly, a survey by NBC News/Marist in Iowa finds reports that Gingrich is now in the lead at with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Ron Paul at 17%, Herman Cain at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Gallup: Obama's National Appoval Lowest In Modern History At This Point in Term

Posted Dec 02, 2011 at 12:52 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's overall decline in Gallup's daily presidential job approval index has now surpassed that of Jimmy Carter. The president's aggregate approval numbers for November 2011--a year out from the culmination of his reelection effort--represent the worst job approval rating of any president at this stage of his term in modern political history. Significantly, however, a series of recent analyses of approval ratings relative to reelection suggest that presidential numbers at this point are not always predictive of outcome. Such variables as an approving economy, the electability of the challenger, and the increasingly swift turn over of news cycles in a world a new media can all contribute to the eventual outcome of a presidential cycle. So PollTrack will be watching the next few months very closely.

Election 2012: Polling In Florida Confirms Gingrich Ascendance

Posted Dec 01, 2011 at 1:27 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll in Florida (with results similar to two others released over the past few days) confirms Gingrich's ascendance in the national contest for the GOP presidential nomination. The survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential field with 47%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Herman Cain at 15%, Ron Paul at 5%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, Rick Perry at 2%, and Rick Santorum at 1%. Significantly, in light of PollTrack's Wednesday analysis of the status of the GOP campaign, the poll reports that the "biggest reason for Newt Gingrich's rise is that he's picked up the voters of Herman Cain and Rick Perry as their campaigns have fallen apart." PPP continues: "But these numbers make it pretty clear he's doing more than that--some of Mitt Romney's '25%' is starting to fall off and move toward Newt as well."

PollTrack: Romney No Longer The Clear Favorite To Win GOP Nomination

Posted Nov 30, 2011 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite polls showing Mitt Romney way ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack's analysis of the early voting states suggests a less clear path to victory for Romney. As one pollster notes in New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): "Just 16% of . . . likely primary voters say they know who they are voting for. So, while Romney might like his commanding lead right now, there is no telling where 84% of voters will go in the six remaining weeks before the primary." Indeed, the former Massachusetts governor now trails Newt Gingrich in most of the early voting states (or, as in Florida, is locked in a virtual tie with Gingrich). Romney's inability to seal the deal with Republican voters is telling.

Too moderate for the far right wing of the party--especially for Tea Party supporters--and too opportunistic in the eyes of even more moderate Republican voters, Romney appears to be unable to win the trust of a majority of GOP voters (or even a clear plurality). While it is now likely that the GOP primary season will drag on well into the early summer of 2012, it is PollTrack's opinion that Romney is no longer the clear frontrunner. Indeed, with major support now breaking Gingrich's way--and nearly all national surveys of GOP voters showing him in the lead--Gingrich may be breaking away from the pack. And as under-performing ultra-conservative candidates such as Cain, Bachmann, and Santorum begin dropping out of the race, it is far more likely that their votes will go to Gingrich and not Romney. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Another Poll Shows Gingrich In The Lead

Posted Nov 29, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll, this one from Majority Opinion Research reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead over Mitt Romney, 32% to 23%. In the poll, Herman Cain comes in at 14%, Ron Paul at 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Michele Bachmann 4%, Jon Huntsman 3%, "someone else" at 4%, and no opinion at 11%.

Another Poll Shows Romney Way Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted Nov 28, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by WMUR/UNH in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential race by a large margin: 42%. His closest rival, Newt Gingrich is at 15%, while Ron Paul comes in at 12% and Jon Huntsman at 8%.

Gingrich More Electable Than Romney?

Posted Nov 25, 2011 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by McClatchy-Marist reports that Newt Gingrich is the strongest Republican presidential candidate when matched head to head against President Obama. Obama leads Gingrich by two points, 47% to 45%; he bests Mitt Romney by 4 points, 49% to 44%; and Ron Paul by 8 points, 49% to 41%.

Romney Way Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted Nov 23, 2011 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Suffolk University/7NEWS in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney is way ahead of the GOP field with 41%, followed by Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 14%. In the only state where Jon Huntsman shows any strength, the former Utah governor comes in at 9%; Herman receives 8%, Rick Santorum 3%, Rick Perry 2%, and Michele Bachmann 1%.

Another Poll Shows Gingrich In The Lead Nationally

Posted Nov 22, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll, this one by Reuters/Ipsos, reports that Newt Gingrich now leads the Republican presidential field nationally with 24%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Herman Cain at 12% and Rick Perry at 10%.

Romney Just Ahead of Gingrich In New Hampshire; Well Behind Gingrich in Iowa

Posted Nov 21, 2011 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Magellan Strategies in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney now barely leads Newt Gingrich among GOP presidential primary voters, 29% to 27%. In the survey, Ron Paul comes in at 16%, Herman Cain at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Perry at 2% and Rick Santorum at 1%. In Iowa, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead among likely GOP caucus-goers with 32%, followed by former Mitt Romney at 19%, Herman Cain at 13%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 6% and Michele Bachmann at 6%.

Two Polls Report Gingrich Leading Nationally

Posted Nov 18, 2011 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger

Two polls now show Newt Gingrich leading the GOP pack nationally. An Economist/YouGov reports that Gingrich leading is ahead nationally with 23%, followed closely by Herman Cain at 21% and Mitt Romney at 19%. Ron Paul comes in at 7%, Rick Perry at 6%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, Rick Santorum at 2% and Gary Johnson at 1%. A Fox News pollalso shows Gingrich in the lead, with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22% and Herman Cain at 15%. Ron Paul come in at 8%, Rick Perry at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Rick Santorum at 2%.

Election 2012: Romney Way Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted Nov 17, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Bloomberg in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a huge lead over his GOP presidential rivals with 40%, followed by Ron Paul at 17% and Newt Gingrich at 10%. All the other candidates are below 10%.

Cain Maintains Leads In Iowa and South Carolina

Posted Nov 16, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite Allegations of sexual misconduct, Herman Cain maintains his lead in two early Republican nomination contests. According to two new surveys by Insider Advantage, Cain leads in Iowa with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Newt Gingrich at 15%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 9% and Michele Bachmann at 5%. In another key state, South Carolina, Cain leads with 26%, followed by Gingrich at 19%, Romney at 16%, Perry at 6%, Bachmann at 5%, Ron Paul at 3% and Rick Santorum at 1%.

Romney and Cain Maintain Leads In Early States

Posted Nov 15, 2011 at 12:47 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a series of surveys by GS Strategy, Mitt Romney and Herman Cain maintain leads in early GOP voting states. In Iowa, Cain leads Romney, 25% to 22%; the other candidates are at single digits. In New Hampshire, Romney maintains a huge lead, with 43% to Cain's 18%. In South Carolina, Cain just edges Romney in a statistical tie, 28% to 27%.

Election 2012: Romney Retakes National Lead

Posted Nov 14, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Economist/YouGov, Mitt Romney has retaken his position atop the GOP presidential field with 24%, followed by Herman Cain at 21% and Newt Gingrich at 16%. Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Rick Perry are all tied for forth at 7%, in front of Jon Huntsman at 5% and Rick Santorum at 2%.

Election 2012: Obama Improves Competitive Standing

Posted Nov 11, 2011 at 12:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Gallup reports that President Obama's relative standing against a generic Republican candidate has improved considerably since the early fall. He now leads 43% to 42%. In Gallup's September and October polls, Obama trailed 38% to 46%. Gallup writes: "The evenness of independents' preferences marks a significant change from September and October, when independents favored the Republican candidate by a significant margin. The current pattern more closely resembles where independents were earlier this year, when Obama and the Republican were evenly matched... The changes in this survey matchup between Obama and a generic Republican candidate no doubt foreshadow the potential political volatility to come over the next 12 months."

Election 2012: Republicans More Enthusiastic About Voting

Posted Nov 10, 2011 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger

In what bodes as a potential problem for Democrats overall in next year's federal election, a new survey by Gallup reports that Republican voters are more likely to express enthusiasm about voting in next year's presidential election. On the national level, 56% of registered GOP voters and 48% of Democratic voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. In 12 key swing states, the Republican advantage is even greater: 59% to 48%.

Election 2012: Cain and Romney Tied Nationally Among GOP Voters

Posted Nov 08, 2011 at 3:32 AM by Maurice Berger

 

A new poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that Herman Cain and Mitt Romney tied for the lead nationally among Republican voters at 21% each. Newt Gingrich is in third place at 12%, just ahead of Rick Perry at 11%. The other candidates fail to rise above single digits.

Americans Growing Weary Of Health Care Legislation

Posted Nov 04, 2011 at 4:22 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation reports that the health care reform law's popularity has hit an all-time low with Americans.
Only 34% of those surveyed had a favorable view of the legislation, while 51% held an unfavorable view.

Cain And Romney Virtually Tied In Iowa Poll

Posted Nov 01, 2011 at 11:34 PM by Maurice Berger

The prestigious (and often remarkably accurate) Des Moines Register Iowa poll suggests that the race to win the Iowa Caucus may be very close. The survey reports that Herman Cain and Mitt are virtually tied at this poinr in the race: Cain edges Romney, 23% to 22%, with Ron Paul at 12%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Rick Perry at 7%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

Election 2012: Cain Leads Nationally

Posted Oct 31, 2011 at 2:51 AM by Maurice Berger

While several recent polls have showed Mitt Romney leading in some of the early 2012 caucus and primary states, a nw survey by the Economist/YouGov reports that Herman Cain now leads the Republican presidential field nationally with 28%, followed by Romney at 24%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates are below 5%. The poll also suggests that Romney mat be the stronger challenger against the president next fall: in general election match ups, Obama leads Romney, 48% to 45%, bests Cain, 48% to 40%, and overwhelms Perry 48% to 38%.

 

 

Election 2012: Romney Ahead Or Tied In Early Voiting States

Posted Oct 28, 2011 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A new multi-state survey by CNN/Time/Opinion Research reports that Mitt Romney remains the clear front-runner in New Hampshire, leads in Florida, and is statistically tied for the top spot with Herman Cain in Iowa and South Carolina.

Iowa: Romney leads Cain 24 to 21%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 10%, Gingrich at 10%, and Bachmann at 6%.

New Hampshire: Romney leads Cain 40 to 13%, followed by Paul at 12%, Huntsman at 6%, Gingrich at 5%, and Perry at 4%.

South Carolina: Romney leads Cain 25 to 23%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, and Bachmann at 4%,

Florida: Romney leads Cain 30 to 18%, followed Gingrich at 9%, Perry at 9%, Paul at 6% and Bachmann at 4%.

Election 2012: Romney Holds Large Lead In Nevada

Posted Oct 27, 2011 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Magellan Strategies in Nevada reports that Mitt Romney holds a significant lead over Herman Cain, 38% to 26%, in the GOP nomination context, with Newt Gingrich in third at 16%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rick Perry at 5%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Santorum at 1% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

Majority Of Americans Favor Abolishing Electoral College

Posted Oct 26, 2011 at 4:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Gallup reports that 62% of Americans favor amending the U.S. Constitution to replace the Electoral College with direct election presidents via a popular vote system. Just 35% say they would keep the Electoral College .

For First Time, Majority Blame Obama For Bad Economy

Posted Oct 24, 2011 at 10:54 PM by Maurice Berger

A poll USA Today/Gallup indicates that a majority of Americans--for the first time--blame President Obama for the nation's economic problems. 53% believe that Obama deserves "a great deal" or a "moderate amount" of the blame for the economic problems that the country currently faces. Nevertheless, an even larger number -- 69% -- believe that former President George Bush deserves a "great deal" or a "moderate amount" of blame for the economy.

50% of Americans Believe That Obama Doesn't Deserve Reelection

Posted Oct 24, 2011 at 2:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by AP-GfK reports that 50% of Americans believe that President Obama does not deserve re-election. Still, Obama runs about even or slightly ahead of all three men in hypothetical matchups with possible GOP nominees, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, or Rick Perry. 

Election 2012: Romney Continues To Lead Nationally

Posted Oct 21, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by AP-GfK reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the Republican presidential field nationally with 30%, followed by Herman Cain at 26%, Rick Perry at 13%, Ron Paul at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 4%, Jon Huntsman at 2% and Rick Santorum at 2%.

Election 2012: Romney Leads In Nevada

Posted Oct 20, 2011 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

In another important early voting state, Nevada, Mitt Romney now leads the GOP field with 31%, followed by Herman Cain at 26% and Rick Perry at 12%. According to the survey by Project New West, Newt Gingrich comes in at 7%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 4%, Rick Santorum at 2% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

Election 2012: Romney Maintains Lead in New Hampshire

Posted Oct 19, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by InsiderAdvantage/Newsmax in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a solid lead over Herman Cain in the GOP presidential race, 39% to 24%; Ron Paul come in third at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Newt Gingrich at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5% and Rick Perry at 2%.

Consumer Confidence Index: Electoral Doom For The President?

Posted Oct 17, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

In yet another indicator of an icreasingly difficult reelection race for the president in 2012, Mark McKinnon observes that "the average consumer confidence index when a president running for reelection wins is 95. When they lose, it's 76. Today the number is 55." Still, the present-day economic situation is highly unusual in that most Americans continue to blame the bad economy on forces outside of Obama's control.

A just released survey by CBS News poll reports that 69% of Americans believe President Obama has not made real progress in fixing the economy; 25% say he has made real progress. Yet, on the question of who to blame for the shaky economy, most--22%--cited the Bush administration, followed by Wall Street at 16%, Congress at 15% and then the Obama administration at 12%. One in 10 said "all of the above. Will this perception help President Obama in his quest for reelection. PollTrack thinks it's too early to tell. 

Cain With Slight Lead In South Carolina

Posted Oct 14, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by the American Research Group in South Carolina reports that Herman Cain has a tiny lead over Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential primary field: Cain is at 26%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 25%. Rick Perry is third at 15%.

PPP: Cain With National Lead

Posted Oct 13, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has now taken the national lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 30% to 22%, with Newt Gingrich at 15% and Rick Perry at 14%.The rest of the field remain in the single digits: Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul are tied for 5th at 5%, Jon Huntsman 7th at 2%, Rick Santorum 8th at 1%, and Gary Johnson 9th with less than 1%.

Election 2012: Cain Takes Lead In Iowa

Posted Oct 12, 2011 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has taken the lead in the Republican presidential race in Iowa with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 8% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

GOP Nomination 2012: Romney Leads Nationally

Posted Oct 11, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Washington Post/Bloomberg national reports that Mitt Romney now leads Herman Cain among likely Republican voters, 24% to 16%, with Rick Perry in third at 13%. All other candidates are in the single digits, except Jon Huntsman, who gets zero support.

Election 2012: Romney Surges In New Hampshire

Posted Oct 10, 2011 at 12:50 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by WMUR9 Granite State reports that Mitt Romney has surged ahead of the Republican presidential field in New Hampshire. Romney leads with 42%. Herman Cain, in second place, doesn't even come close at 13%. Ron Paul is at 11%, Rudy Giuliani at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Rick Perry at 4% and Newt Gingrich at 4%.

Majority of American Expect Obama Not To Be Reelected

Posted Oct 07, 2011 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 55% of those surveyed believe President Obama will not be reelected next year, while 37% say he'll win. This kind of pessimism about a president's reelection prospects can serve as a self-fulfilling prophecy, both spurring on GOP support and dispiriting Democrats, whose lack of enthusiasm may result in lower voter turn out.

CBS News Poll: Herman Cain Campaign Gaining Traction?

Posted Oct 05, 2011 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

In another sign that Herman Cain's quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president may be gaining traction, a new CBS News poll reports that Herman Cain has moved into a tie with Mitt Romney at the top of the pack of presidential candidates with 17% each, while Rick Perry has fallen to just 12%.

Election 2012: Perry's Numbers Collapse In Florida

Posted Oct 04, 2011 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A new War Room Logistics (R) survey in Florida reports that Rick Perry's numbers in the state have taken a -16% nose dive. The poll finds Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential field with 28% among likely voters, followed by Herman Cain at 24%, Newt Gingrich at 10% and Rick Perry at 9%. PollTrack believes that the key number here is not Romney's or Perry's, but Cain who is now a close second, after winning the Florida Straw Poll last week. Cain's strong showing here--and his uptick nationally--could suggest that he is becoming a real contender in the GOP presidential nomination race.

Dissatisfaction With Government At Record High In US

Posted Oct 03, 2011 at 12:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Gallup survey reports that a "record-high 81% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way the country is being governed, adding to negativity that has been building over the past 10 years." Here is Gallup's historical chart:

Trend: Reaction to How the Nation Is Being Governed

Americans Remain Pessimistic Over Economy

Posted Sep 28, 2011 at 1:49 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Gallup reports that Americans remain largely pessimistic about the economy: "Three in four Americans assess the U.S. economy as no better than a year ago, with 35% saying it is about the same and 42% saying it is worse. Looking ahead to a year from now, Americans remain largely pessimistic, with 61% expecting economic conditions to be similar to now, or worse." Here is Gallup's chart:

Do you think the U.S. economy is fully recovered, better than it was a year ago but not fully recovered, about the same as a year ago, or worse than it was a year ago? (Thinking about one year from now, do you think the U.S. economy will be ... ?) September 2011 results

Election 2012: Perry Continues To Lead Nationally

Posted Sep 27, 2011 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by CNN/Opinion Research survey reports that Rick Perry continues to lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Perry is ahead, with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Newt Gingrich at 11%, Herman Cain at 9%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Santorum at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 1%. In general election match ups, however, Romney fares best against President Obama, trailing by just one point, 49% to 48%; Obama holds a five point lead over Perry, 51% to 46%.

Congressional Approval At All Time Low

Posted Sep 26, 2011 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by CBS News/New York Times reports that just 12% of Americans "approve of the job Congress is doing -- the same as the lowest percentage recorded in this poll, reached in October 2008, right before the November elections."

Perry Holds On To National Lead

Posted Sep 20, 2011 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by CBS News/New York Times poll, Rick Perry continues to lead Mitt Romney nationally in the GOP presidential race, 23% to 16%. well behind, Newt Gingrich comes in at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, Herman Cain at 5%, Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 1%, Rick Santorum at 1%.

Hillary Clinton Maintains High Favorability Rating

Posted Sep 19, 2011 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Bloomberg poll, 64% of Americans maintain a favorable view of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The poll also reports that 34% of respondents are "suffering a form of buyer's remorse," saying the U.S. would be better off now if she had become president in 2008 instead of Barack Obama.

Most Americans Believe In Global Warning

Posted Sep 16, 2011 at 1:14 AM by Maurice Berger

While a number of Republican candidates for president reject the idea of global warming, most Americans believe in it. A survey Yale University survey reports that 53% of Republicans, 71% of independents and 78% of Democrats said they believe global warming is real. Interestingly, on 34% of who self-identify as members of the Tea Party believe in global warming; 53% do not.

Perry Maintains Wide National Lead

Posted Sep 15, 2011 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Rick Perry continues to hold a significant lead over Mitt Romney nationally in the Republican presidential race, 31% to 18%. As for the other candidates, Ron Paul comes in at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Herman Cain at 8%, and Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum both at 2%.

Gallup: Americans Question War on Terrorism

Posted Sep 14, 2011 at 1:41 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, Americans' views on who is winning the war on terrorism are almost identical now to where they were in October 2001. "Americans are roughly evenly split, 46% to 42%, between the view that the U.S. and its allies are winning the war on terrorism and the view that neither the U.S. nor the terrorists are winning. Despite the similarity between views now and 10 years ago, there has been a great deal of change in the intervening time, including points in 2002 and 2003 when two-thirds of the public felt that the U.S. was winning."

Another Poll Shows Perry In Lead For GOP Nomination

Posted Sep 13, 2011 at 1:56 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Economist/YouGov, Rick Perry continues to maintain a solid lead for the GOP presidential nomination at 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 13%, Rudy Giuliani at 9%, and Sarah Palin at 8%, Ron Paul at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5% and Herman Cain at 5%.

PollTrack Analysis: Tomorrow's Special Election in NY-9

Posted Sep 12, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

Tomorrow's special election in New York's 9th congressional district, for the seat vacated by Rep. Anthony Weiner who resigned earlier this year, a new Siena poll reports that the Republican candidate, Robert Turner, now holds a six point lead over David Weprin, 50% to 44%. If Turner should win in this vastly Democratic district, Weprin's loss may hold real implications for next year's election cycle. Anecdotal reporting suggests that some Democrats, upset with the Obama administration, may intend to send a message to the president by voting for Turner. The problem for the Democrats: if the heavily Democratic, New York district tips into the Republican column, then far closer swing states, such as Florida, Ohio, and even Pennsylvania--Obama's approval in the three states is somewhere in the mid to high 30s--are undoubtedly in play. The president's approval numbers at this point remain problematic. Two previous incumbents with relatively low numbers in their third year, but who went on to win reelection--Reagan and Clinton--were at this point in their presidency recovering politically, each nearing the 50% mark. Obama's present approval number averages 44%, far below the 48% thought to be a good marker of potential reelection. Stay tuned.

 

Gallup: Obama Approval Lagging

Posted Sep 09, 2011 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

An assessment of the President's August poll numbers by Gallup reports that Obama's approval rating has hit a new low. Just 41% approved of the president's overall job performance in August (a three point drop from July). He also received term-low monthly approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).

Serious Ebb In Democratic Voter Enthusiasm

Posted Sep 01, 2011 at 12:36 AM by Maurice Berger

In what has very serious implications for President Obama's reelection chances, a new survey by Public Policy Polling survey reports a considerable ebb of Democratic enthusiasm about voting in next year's election. Just 48% of Democrats--a new low--say they were "very excited" about voting in 2012.  In 13 previous polls, the average level was 57%. It had risen as high as 65% (during the 2008 presidential election) and only twice had the number dropped below 55%.

Vast Majority Of Americans See Nation Off Track

Posted Aug 31, 2011 at 1:21 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Democracy Corps reports that 75% of American voters believe the country is on the wrong track. This number represents 14 points jump since June; it is also and the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. Democracy Corps writes: "Both parties in Congress lose ground, but Republicans have born the brunt of the backlash. Two thirds disapprove of House Republicans and 44% strongly disapprove - a 7 point surge since June. By a margin of 54% to 36%, voters say that the more they hear from House Republicans, the less they like."

American Satisfaction With Direction Of Country Now At 11%

Posted Aug 30, 2011 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Gallup reports that Americans' satisfaction with the direction of the country has dropped to just 11%, the lowest level since December 2008 and just four points above the all-time low recorded in October 2008.

Obama Perceived As Weak On Economy, Deficit

Posted Aug 22, 2011 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Gallup reports that President Obama has dropped to a new low approval rate of 26% for his handling of the economy, down 11 points since it was last measured it in mid-May and well below his previous low of 35% in November 2010. He fares equally poorly on his his handling of the federal budget deficit (24%) and creating jobs (29%).

Election 2012: Rick Perry Leads In Iowa?

Posted Aug 19, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by We Ask America asked Iowa Republicans who they to see win the GOP nomination for president in 2012. The poll suggests that in the Hawkeye State, at least, there may be a new frontrunner: Rick Perry comes out on top with 29%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 17% and Mitt Romney at 15%.

Election 2012: Romney Leads In New Hampshire

Posted Aug 18, 2011 at 12:08 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Magellan poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential primary pack with 36%, followed by Rick Perry at 18%, Rep. Ron Paul at 14% and Rep. Michele Bachmann at 10%. All other candidates are at 3% or less.

Gallup: Obama Approval Dips Below 40%

Posted Aug 15, 2011 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Sunday's presidential approval tracking poll, President Obama's approval rating has dropped to the lowest point of his presidency, and the first time it has dipped below 40%. Obama now stands at 39% approval, while a significant 54% of voters disapprove of his job performance.

Americans Angry With GOP

Posted Aug 11, 2011 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that many Americans are growing angry with the Republican party. GOP favorability numbers have dropped considerably over the past month: Now a scant 33% take a positive view of the party, while 59% say they have an unfavorable view (the latter represents an record high). Views of the Democratic party have remained relatively stable, with 47% saying they have a favorable view of the Democrats and an equal amount saying they hold an unfavorable view.

Americans Disapprove of Tea Party

Posted Aug 09, 2011 at 1:00 AM by Maurice Berger

In the wake of last week's debt crisis, a New York Times/CBS News poll reports that the Tea Party is now viewed unfavorably by 40% of the public; just 20% hold a favorable opinion.

USA TODAY/Gallup: Debt Ceiling Law Not Popular

Posted Aug 05, 2011 at 12:42 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new USA Today/Gallup poll, the debt ceiling agreement that President Obama worked out with congress remains unpopular with Americans. The poll reports that 39% of Americans approve of the law, while 46% oppose it. Things gets even more negative when independents are polled: a scant 33% of independent voters approved of the deal; 50% disapprove.

Election 2012: Obama Tied With Generic Republican

Posted Aug 04, 2011 at 12:47 AM by Maurice Berger

A new national poll reports that President Obama's advantage "over a generic Republican challenger in 2012 shrank by 10 points in the past three months. Now, just 41 percent of registered voters say they would send the president back to the White House while 40 percent prefer to elect a Republican candidate, according to a Pew Research Center survey. In May, the president led a generic Republican, 48 percent to 37 percent." The survey, by Pew,  suggests "independent voters are driving this drop. In May, 42 percent of independents supported Obama's re-election, while 35 percent preferred his challenger. Now, that figure is upside down: 31 percent of independents are inclined to vote for him in 2012 while 39 percent want to replace him with a Republican."

Majority of Americans Oppose Debt Ceiling Deal

Posted Aug 03, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new CNN poll reports that 52% of Americans are opposed to the debt reduction deal negotiated between the President and congress; 44% are in favor.

Americans Rate Obama Higher Than Congress On Budget Negotiations

Posted Aug 02, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

While there may be no real winners in the just concluded Deficit/Debt Ceiling negotiations, a new Gallup poll reports that "Americans are more likely to approve of the way President Obama is handling the negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling than they are to approve of the handling of the situation by Speaker of the House John Boehner or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, although opinions about all three are more negative than positive." Here is Gallup's chart: 

Handling federal debt ceiling.gif

Gallop: Record Low Approval Rating For The President

Posted Aug 01, 2011 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger

Going into this past weekend, Gallup reported on a very much unwanted milestone for the Obama administration: its newest tracking poll recorded a record low job approval rating for the president: 40%. While he hit his prior low--41%--several times over the past year, as recently as early June, the president approval number stood at 50%.

Ohio 2012: Trending Democratic?

Posted Jul 29, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger

It what can be read as good news for President Obama in Ohio, A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has a commanding lead over two potential GOP challengers. Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandel, 49% to 34%, and tops State Sen. Kevin Coughlin, 50% to 32%.Combined with the exceptionally low approval rating of the state's Republican Governor, these numbers suggests that the closely divided state is trending slightly more Democratic in recent days

Gallup: Obama Has Sub-Majority Support in 10th Quater

Posted Jul 28, 2011 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Gallup, "President Barack Obama earned a 46.8% average approval rating in his 10th quarter in office ending July 19, essentially unchanged from the 9th quarter and still above his record-low 7th quarter. The president's latest quarterly average is based on Gallup Daily tracking from April 20 through July 19. Across that time, his three-day rolling average approval ratings have been as high as 53% and as low as 42%."

" . . . Obama is in the company of several former elected presidents who averaged sub-50% approval during their 10th quarters in office. This includes three former presidents who won re-election -- Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan -- and one, Jimmy Carter, who lost. On the other hand, of the three presidents with exceptionally high average approvals at this stage, George H.W. Bush was ultimately defeated, while Dwight Eisenhower and George W. Bush prevailed." Here is Gallup's chart:

10th Quarter Gallup Job Approval Averages of Elected Presidents Who Sought Re-Election

Economy and Jobs, Not Deficit, Are Biggest Problem For Most Americans

Posted Jul 26, 2011 at 12:26 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, most "Americans name the economy and unemployment/jobs as the most important problems facing the nation, as they have all year, despite the dominant focus in Washington on the federal debt ceiling. The deficit comes in third as the top problem, followed by dissatisfaction with government in general, healthcare, and concerns about wars." Here is Gallup's chart:  What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? July 2011

Serious Erosion Of White Democrats

Posted Jul 25, 2011 at 2:20 AM by Maurice Berger

In what could spell serious trouble for the President's reelection effort next year, A new Pew Research survey reports that the GOP has made significant gains among white voters in the three years since Barack Obama was elected president. In 2008, the Republicans could claim a 2% lead among whites--46% to 44%. Today, that lead has expanded to a whopping +13% lead today, 52% to 39%. To put these numbers in perspective, Obama won the 2008 race with only 43% of the white vote. Any significant diminution of that number would greatly hamper his reelection effort.

Americans Reject GOP Approach To Debt Crisis

Posted Jul 21, 2011 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A CBS News poll reports that Americans "are unimpressed with their political leaders' handling of the debt ceiling crisis." But their is a big divide between public perceptions of the GOP vs the President's handling of the crisis. Just 21% approve of Republican congressional resistance to raising taxes; a whopping 71% disapprove. 43%, however, approve of President Obama's handling of the negotiations. Still, 48% said they disapproved. So overall, the public appears to have little patience for the way these negotiations are being handled.

American Optimism Dims, But Not About The President

Posted Jul 14, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

Some bad news and some good news for the President. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll reports that the number of Americans who believe the country is on the wrong track rose to 63% this month. Yet, this negative world view does not apparently extend to President Obama, who continues to hold an approval rating in the poll at a respectable 49%.

African-American Unemployment As High As In Great Depression

Posted Jun 21, 2011 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

Cbs News reports that "while unemployment among the general population is about 9.1 percent, it's at 16.2 percent African Americans, and a bit higher still for African American males . . . historically, the unemployment rate for African Americans has always been higher than the national average. However, now it's at Depression-era levels. The most recent figures show African American joblessness at 16.2 percent. For black males, it's at 17.5 percent; And for black teens, it's nearly 41 percent."

Democratic Party Affiliation Grows

Posted Jun 16, 2011 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

In a good sign for Democrats, party affiliation has grown in recent months comparable to the GOP. A new Gallup poll finds 45% of Americans identified as Democrats last month as compared to 39% who identified as Republicans.

Majority Disapprove Of GOP Medicare Plan

Posted Jun 09, 2011 at 9:14 PM by Maurice Berger

A CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that 58% of Americans oppose GOP Rep. Paul Ryan's Medicare overhaul proposal; just 35% support it. Significantly, 54% of conservatives also oppose the plan. Republicans are split, with 50% opposing and 48% supporting.

Americans Express Strong Belief In God

Posted Jun 08, 2011 at 4:42 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Gallup, "more than 9 in 10 Americans still say "yes" when asked the basic question "Do you believe in God?"; this is down only slightly from the 1940s, when Gallup first asked this question." Here is Gallup's historical chart:

Trend: Do you believe in God?

Gallup continues: "Despite the many changes that have rippled through American society over the last 6 ½ decades, belief in God as measured in this direct way has remained high and relatively stable. Gallup initially used this question wording in November 1944, when 96% said "yes." That percentage dropped to 94% in 1947, but increased to 98% in several Gallup surveys conducted in the 1950s and 1960s. Gallup stopped using this question format in the 1960s, before including it again in Gallup's May 5-8 survey this year."

Florida Poll: Voters Cool On Gov. Scott

Posted Jun 01, 2011 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Are voters cooling on the new crop of GOP politicians elected to office in 2010? A new poll suggests that at least in Florida the answer may be yes (though other polls in other states suggest discontent with newly elected GOP governors and senators).  The Quinnipiac poll in Florida reports that 57% of voters disapprove of the job Gov. Rick Scott (R) is doing; just 29% approve--the lowest approval rating of any governor in the states surveyed by the polling organization.

Americans Strongly Disapprove Of House Republicans

Posted May 31, 2011 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Democracy Corps reports that disapproval of House Republicans has dramatically increased from 46% in February to 55% in April to a whopping 59% in May.  Disapproval now outnumbers approval two-to-one; intense disapproval by three-to-one.

Gallup: Dynamic Shift In Support Of Gay Marriage

Posted May 23, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

In what represents a dynamic shift in American public opinion, a new Gallup tracking survey reports that "for the first time in . . . of the issue, a majority of Americans (53%) believe same-sex marriage should be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages. The increase since last year came exclusively among political independents and Democrats. Republicans' views did not change. Here's Gallup's chart:

1996-2011 Trend: Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?

Are US Voters Angry With Incumbents?

Posted May 20, 2011 at 12:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released USA Today/Gallup survey roports that a mere 28% of registered voters believe that most members of Congress deserve re-election; this number ties the low set last year, before the GOP's historic gains. Gallup observes: "The anti-incumbent mood that led to sweeping changes in Congress after the 2010 elections persists, and the accompanying change in House leadership has not fundamentally altered the way Americans view Congress. Thus, incumbents remain vulnerable heading into the 2012 election cycle, though perhaps not quite as vulnerable as in 2010, given that voters are now more inclined to say their own member deserves re-election."

Americans Oppose Raising Debt Ceiling

Posted May 19, 2011 at 12:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Gallup reports that by a 47% to 19% margin, Americans say they would oppose their member of Congress voting to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, while 34% don't know enough to say. By party affiliation, Republicans oppose raising the debt ceiling by 70% to 8%; independents by 46% to 15%; Democrats favor raising the ceiling by 33% to 26%.

Gallup: Unemployment at 9.2%

Posted May 18, 2011 at 1:06 AM by Maurice Berger

As measured by Gallup, unemployment "is at 9.2% in mid-May -- down slightly from 9.4% at the end of April and a year ago. The broader underemployment rate is 19.1% -- down slightly from last month and on par with May 2010."

Economy Top Concern Of Voters

Posted May 17, 2011 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey from Public Policy Polling reports that voters are significantly more concerned about the economy than they are about the war on terrorism: 74% name the economy as a more important issue than the war (10% said the latter). 61% say they care more about gas prices; only 23% in contrast say the war--views shared almost equally across partisan lines.

Republican and Democrats Differ On Bin Laden Credit

Posted May 12, 2011 at 12:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A Smart Politics monitoring ans analysis of congressional press releases issued this week the mission to kill Osama bin Laden reports that 60% of House Democrats credited President Obama's role; just 24% of GOP congressmen even mentioned Obama.

Most Americans Support Obama On Bin Laden Photos

Posted May 10, 2011 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released NBC News poll reports that an outright majority of Americans--52%, according to the survey--strongly believe President Obama made the right decision not to release the photos of Osama bin Laden after he was killed; 24% strongly oppose the decision. Overall, 64% agreed with the president and 29% disagreed.

President Continues To Enjoy Post-Bin Laden Bounce

Posted May 09, 2011 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday morning, President Obama continues to enjoy an appreciable bounce in his approval rating following the successful mission to capture Osama Bin Laden. His aggregate approval rating comes in at 51.6%; his disapproval number 42.3%, for an aggregate advantage of +9.3%.

President Obama's Bounce

Posted May 05, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

After months of hovering in the mid-40% range, President Obama has achieved a considerable bounce after the news of Osama Bin Laden's capture and death. The president's approval rating now stands at 51%; his disapproval number is 43.1%, for an aggregate advantage of +7.9%. Will this number hold up over time. Hard to say, but past history shows that a bounce achieved following a major foreign policy victory tends to be short-lived, especially if the economy is poor and unemployment high. Stay tuned for updates.

Fox News Poll: Romney Leads GOP Pack

Posted May 03, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Fox News poll reports that Mitt Romney is now in the lead among GOP voters for the 2012 nomination: Romney comes in at 19%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 17%, Sarah Palin at 9%, Trump at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7% and Ron Paul at 7%.

Majority Disapprove of President's Handling Of Economy

Posted Apr 29, 2011 at 12:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released McClatchy-Marist Poll reports that 40% of Americans approve of how President Obama is dealing with the economy; 57% disapprove. These numbers represent the lowest marks of his presidency.

Americans Not Supportive Of Libyan Intervention

Posted Apr 28, 2011 at 12:54 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Public Policy Polling survey reports that a mere 27% of Americans favor military intervention in Libya; 40%  oppose it.

Republican Budget Plan Unpopular

Posted Apr 25, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Democracy Corps poll, the Republican plan to reduce the deficit is supported by 48% of respondents, "but when voters learn almost anything about it, they turn sharply and intensely against it . . . When the budget is described -- using as much of Paul Ryan's description as possible -- support collapses to 36% with just 19% strongly supporting the plan. The facts in the budget lose people almost immediately -- dropping 12 points. Putting the spotlight on this budget is damning. A large majority of 56% oppose it, 42% strongly. The impact is much stronger with seniors where support erodes from 48% to just 32%, with 57% opposed. Support with independents drops from 55% to 43%."

ABC News/Washington Post Poll: Obama Leads All GOP Challengers

Posted Apr 22, 2011 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A new ABC News/Washington Post Poll reports that even though President Obama's job approval rating has dropped to 47 percent, "he leads all potential GOP candidates. In a head-to-head matchups, Obama leads Romney by 4 points, 49-45 percent; Huckabee by 6 points, 50-44 percent; Trump by 12 points, 52-40 percent; Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., by 12 points; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Gingrich by 15 points each; and Palin by 17 points"

Election 2012: How Vulnerable Is The President?

Posted Apr 21, 2011 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger

A new McClatchy-Marist Poll suggests that President Obama remains vulnerable in his reelection effort. The survey reports that 44% of American voters say they definitely plan to vote against Obama next year; 37% definitely plan to vote for him; and 18% are unsure. Still, the President bests all Republican challengers in the poll's hypothetical match ups: Mitt Romney does best against Obama, but still trails, 46% to 45%, while Mike Huckabee trails by 48% to 43%.

Gallup: Obama Approval Drops To Historic Low

Posted Apr 18, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

According last Friday's Gallup Daily tracking poll, President Obama's approval rating now ties his historic low, at 41%. The president has hot this number twice before: in August and October 2010.

NJ Gov. Christie Remains Unknown Quantity

Posted Apr 14, 2011 at 4:40 PM by Maurice Berger

Despite the enthusiasm of many Republicans for his policy's of Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, who has been mentioned as a possible Republican presidential candidate in 2012, remains mostly unknown to most Americans. A new Gallup survey notes that "overall, 27% of Americans view him favorably and 22% unfavorably. Among Republicans, his ratings are 41% favorable and 12% unfavorable."

Americans Support Unions Over GOP Governors

Posted Apr 04, 2011 at 12:39 AM by Maurice Berger

By and large, Americans support unions in their present-day squabbles with Republican governors. A new Gallup poll reports that 48% of Americans "agree more with the unions in state disputes over collective bargaining for public employees, while 39% agree more with the governors."

Tea Party Support Lags

Posted Apr 01, 2011 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A CNN/Opinion Research survey reports a considerable drop in support for the Tea Party, now at 32%, the lowest level of approval to date. Just as troubling for the party, 47% have  an unfavorable view of the movement, the higher disapproval recorded to date.

Big Jump Nationally In Hispanic Population

Posted Mar 31, 2011 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger

According to National Journal, "the Hispanic population surged 43% in the last decade and Hispanics now make up more than 16% of the nation's population." As the Journal notes, this jump could have enormous implications, both for the Democratic and Republican parties: "Every state in the nation saw a surge in Latinos, and traditional Latino gateways along the border still have the highest percentage, other states also saw rapid Hispanic growth: There are now 17  states where Hispanics make up at least 10 percent of the population, including Utah, Rhode Island and Kansas. In five states, Hispanics now account for at least a quarter of the population. In states such as Texas and Arizona, that could be good news for Democrats, who have been benefitting from a Hispanic backlash against Republicans' tough rhetoric on illegal immigration. Exit polls indicated that President Obama got two-thirds of the Hispanic vote in the 2008 election."

Possible Good News For Obama: Ohio Democratic Senator Ahead

Posted Mar 30, 2011 at 1:04 AM by Maurice Berger

In what may spell good news for the President's reelection efforts next year, a new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown ahead in his reelection effort, suggesting a lessing of GOP gains in this ultimate swing state. Brown is supported over an unnamed GOP challenger by 45% to 29%. Additionally, voters say--by a margin of 45% to 30%--that Brown deserves a second term. Does this suggest a true reversal of GOP fortunes in the state? Time will tell. 

Libya: Lowest Support Ever For U.S. Military Action

Posted Mar 27, 2011 at 11:40 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a Gallup survey, 47% of Americans now approve of the military action against Libya. This number represents the lowest approval for any U.S. military campaign over the past four decades as gauged by Gallup.Here is Gallup's chart of comparable supports for military actions:

Approval of Prior U.S. Military Actions

Milestone: Majority Of Americans Now Support Gay Marriage

Posted Mar 25, 2011 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger

According to polls conducted by ABC News/Washington Post, "more than half of Americans say it should be legal for gays and lesbians to marry, a first in nearly a decade of polls" conducted by these organizations. "This milestone result caps a dramatic, long-term shift in public attitudes. From a low of 32 percent in a 2004 survey of registered voters, support for gay marriage has grown to 53 percent today. Forty-four percent are opposed, down 18 points from that 2004 survey." Another survey indicates from Public Religion Research Institute reports that 43% of Catholics are now in favor of allowing gay and lesbian people to marry, 31% in favor of civil unions, and 22% who said there should be no legal recognition of a gay relationship. Just as significant, 39% of Catholics approve of the church's negative treatment of the issue of homosexuality; 56% do not.

Americans Remain Divided On Health Care Law

Posted Mar 24, 2011 at 12:37 AM by Maurice Berger

Nearing a full year since passage of the health care bill, a new Gallup poll reports that Americans remain divided about whether it was a good thing or a bad thing, with 46% saying it was a good thing and 44% saying it was a bad thing. 44% also believe the law will make medical care worse, versus 39% who say the law will improve medical care.

 

Large Majority Disapprove of President's Handling Of Economy

Posted Mar 23, 2011 at 12:53 AM by Maurice Berger

While a just released CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that a bare majority of Americans -- 51% -- approve of President Obama's job performance, 60% disapprove of his handling of the economy (with 39% approving), the largest level of disapproval on the issue in his presidency.

Union Support: Republicans Overall Negative, Democrats Positive

Posted Mar 21, 2011 at 11:35 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, "Americans are slightly more likely to say something negative rather than positive when asked what word or phrase comes to mind when they think of "labor unions." By about a 3-to-1 ratio, Republicans have negative rather than positive things to say about labor unions. By better than 2 to 1, Democrats' impressions of unions are more positive than negative." Here is Gallup's chart:

What Word or Phrase Comes to Mind When You Think of Labor Unions? March 2011 Results, by Positive, Negative, or Neutral Responses, Among National Adults and by Party ID

Republican Sen. Scott Brown Popular In Massachusetts

Posted Mar 17, 2011 at 11:51 PM by Maurice Berger

Republican U.S. Senator Scott Brown is showing surprising strength in the bluest of blue state of Massachusetts. A new Western New England College poll reports that 52% of registered voters say Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) deserves to be re-elected, while 28% say he does not deserve to be re-elected. In hypothetical match ups, Brown leads Rep. Mike Capuano (D-MA), 51% to 38%, and tops Elizabeth Warren (D), 51% to 34%.

Christie Most Liked Among GOP Pack

Posted Mar 16, 2011 at 4:10 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a just released Daily Caller/ConservativeHome poll, a tiny plurality of Republicans--15%-- would like to see New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) as their presidential candidate in 2012. However, 27% expect Mitt Romney to win the nomination.

 

Americans Disapprove of Obama's Handling Of Economy, But Trust Him More Than The GOP

Posted Mar 16, 2011 at 1:14 AM by Maurice Berger

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll reports that Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling of the economy--just 43% approve of the way President Obama--but just as significant, 46% say they trust Obama on the issue as compared to 34% who trust Republicans.  The poll continues: "What's more, by a 9-point margin Americans now see Obama as better able to handle the deficit than GOP lawmakers in Congress. That represents an 11-point drop for the GOP since December -- a period when Republicans have made cutting federal spending a centerpiece of their agenda."

Presidential Approval/Disapproval Ratings Tied

Posted Mar 15, 2011 at 1:23 AM by Maurice Berger

After an upswing in support for President Obama in recent months, his approval rating is now tied at 47.6% with his disapproval rating in PollTrack's aggregate as of Sunday night.

GOP Nomination 2012: Huckabee Remains Iowa Frontrunner

Posted Mar 14, 2011 at 12:37 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released We Ask America poll in Iowa reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead the Republican presidential pack, with 20%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Newt Gingrich at 13%, Mitt Romney at 13%, Donald Trump at 9%, Ron Paul at 5%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, Haley Barbour at 3% and Mitch Daniels at 2%.

Troubling Signs For Obama Reelection?

Posted Mar 11, 2011 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that there may be problems ahead for President Obama in his 2012 reelection bid: Americans now believe the country is on the wrong track by a huge margin--64% to 31%. The move is driven largely by the rise in gasoline prices due to Middle East turmoil. A perhaps even more ominous warning sign: the president's job approval dropped slightly to 49% from last month, but his approval rating among independent voters--a key continuency for his reelection chances--took a significant ten point dive to 37%.

NJ Govenor Chris Christie "Hottest" Politician?

Posted Mar 10, 2011 at 12:46 AM by Maurice Berger

The new Quinnipiac thermometer poll, testing public perceptions of political figures, reports that Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is the "hottest politician" with American voters; President  Obama is in fourth place in the survey. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is the "coolest" politician, followed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Sarah Palin.

Lack of GOP Front-Runner Is Atypical

Posted Mar 08, 2011 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup reports: "The close contest among Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney in Republicans' preferences for the 2012 presidential nomination is atypical for a party accustomed to having strong early front-runners. In all 10 competitive GOP races since 1952, one candidate started off strongly, and in 8 of them, he prevailed." Here is Gallup's chart:

Gallup Republican Primary Nomination Polls: Competitive Races, 1952-2008

Huckabee Ahead In South

Posted Mar 07, 2011 at 12:59 AM by Maurice Berger

A Winthrop University poll of southern states reports that Mike Huckabee leads his hypothetical rivals in the 2012 Republican presidential primary rivals.  Huckabee receives 21.9%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12.9%, Sarah Palin at 8.7%, Mitt Romney at 6.9%, Tim Pawlenty at 6.2% and Ron Paul at 5.7%. The president's approval rating remains extremely low in the South, with just 38% approving and 51% disapproving.

Americans Strongly Pro-Union

Posted Mar 04, 2011 at 1:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reports that 62% of Americans strongly oppose efforts to strip unionized government workers of their rights to collectively bargain; 33% support the idea. 

Voter Attitudes Towards Government Shutdown

Posted Mar 03, 2011 at 12:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Quinnipiac poll reports that American voters are divided in their opinion about a possible federal government shutdown: 46% say it would be a good thing; 44% believe it would be a bad thing. As for blame if the shutdown occurs: voters would blame Republicans more than President Obama, 47% to 38%.

Conservative or Liberal: Breakdown of States

Posted Mar 01, 2011 at 11:43 PM by Maurice Berger

Which states are most liberal and which are most conservative? Gallup examines how voters in each state identify their political views. Since "ideological self-identification tends to be stable over time, "the most and least conservative states have not changed much in recent years." Here is Gallup's chart:

Top 10 Conservative States, 2010Top 10 Liberal States, 2010

 

Broad Support for Public Service Workers

Posted Mar 01, 2011 at 12:49 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a New York Times/CBS News Poll, "As labor battles erupt in state capitals around the nation, a majority of Americans say they oppose efforts to weaken the collective bargaining rights of public employee unions and are also against cutting the pay or benefits of public workers to reduce state budget deficits . . . Americans oppose weakening the bargaining rights of public employee unions by a margin of nearly two to one: 60 percent to 33 percent. While a slim majority of Republicans favored taking away some bargaining rights, they were outnumbered by large majorities of Democrats and independents who said they opposed weakening them. Those surveyed said they opposed, 56 percent to 37 percent, cutting the pay or benefits of public employees to reduce deficits, breaking down along similar party lines. A majority of respondents who have no union members living in their households opposed both cuts in pay or benefits and taking away the collective bargaining rights of public employees."

Election 2012: Obama Approval, State By State

Posted Feb 28, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

Want a sense of how President Obama is doing in the state by state hunt for electoral votes in 2012? A just released Gallup state survey finds President Obama's approval rating in 2010 ranged from 66% in Hawaii to just 28% in Wyoming. Gallup writes: "More broadly, the president enjoyed 50% or higher approval in a group of 12 traditionally Democratic states, plus the District of Columbia. At the same time, he suffered average approval rates of 43% or less in 18 other states, most of which are traditionally "red" states."Here is Gallup's chart:

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State of the States: Obama Job Approval, 2010

Strong National Opposition To Wisconsin's Collective Bargaining Initiative

Posted Feb 23, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger

Both within the state of Wisconsin--and now, Gallup confirms, in the nation at large--much opposition exists towards the governor's union busting plans. A just released USA Today/Gallup poll reports  strong public opposition to laws taking away the collective bargaining power of public employee unions as a way to ease state financial troubles: 61% would oppose a law in their state similar; 33% who would favor such a law.

Gallup: Americans Rate Reagan Greatest President

Posted Feb 22, 2011 at 1:07 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, "Americans are most likely to say Ronald Reagan was the nation's greatest president -- slightly ahead of Abraham Lincoln and Bill Clinton. Reagan, Lincoln, or John F. Kennedy has been at the top of this "greatest president" list each time this question has been asked in eight surveys over the last 12 years." Here is Gallup's chart:

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Americans Growing More optimistic About Economy

Posted Feb 15, 2011 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Gallup poll reports that Americans as a whole are considerably more optimistic about the economy than they have been in years: 41% of Americans believe that the economy is improving, the highest level since Gallup began asking the question in 2008. There is demographic split on the issue, however: the most optimistic Americans are Democrats age 18-29; the least optimistic, Republicans 65 and older.

GOP Honeymoon Fades

Posted Feb 11, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Public Policy Polling survey reports that the GOP honeymoon with the American voter has been VERY short-lived. Democrats now once again lead the generic congressional ballot, 45% to 41%, an 11% swing since the November elections. Democrats also hold a seven point lead, 38% to 31%, among independent voters.

Big GOP/Democratic Schism In Perceptions Of The President

Posted Feb 07, 2011 at 1:27 AM by Maurice Berger

The gap between GOP and Democratic perceptions remains high, according to a new Gallup survey. According to Gallup's analysis, President Obama is one of the most polarizing presidents in decades. Obama's approval ratings in 2010 showed a 68% point gap between the percentage of Democrats who approve of him and the number of Republicans approving -- the largest gap in party ratings of any president since President Eisenhower.

Gallup: Unemployment Up in January To 9.8%

Posted Feb 04, 2011 at 12:44 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 9.8% at the end of January, up from 9.6% at the end of December. Broader U.S. underemployment was 18.9% in January, essentially the same as the 19.0% in December." For the full story click here.

Gallup: Job Creation Flat For Fourth Consecutive Month

Posted Feb 03, 2011 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup's Job Creation Index "shows employees' reports of hiring activity at their places of work in January were unchanged, at +10, for the fourth consecutive month. Job creation has been essentially flat after improving steadily over the first half of 2010 and stabilizing at +9 in August and September. Twenty-nine percent of employees nationwide tell Gallup their companies are hiring and 19% say they are letting workers go -- precisely the same as in December, and essentially the same as in November and October."

Emanuel Breaks 50% Mark In Chicago Mayoralty

Posted Jan 31, 2011 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

The latest poll out of Chicago shows former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel poised to win the race for mayor outright, without a runoff. The We Ask America poll shows Rahm Emanuel at 52%, with Gery Chico at 14% and Carol Moseley-Braun at 11%.

For The First Time Since 2005, GOP Viewed Positively

Posted Jan 28, 2011 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Gallup Poll reports that voters, for the first time since 2005, view the Republican Party more positively than negatively, by a 47% to 43% margin.

Americans Oppose Most Budget Cuts

Posted Jan 27, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, "a majority of Americans said they favor cutting U.S. foreign aid, but more than 6 in 10 opposed cuts to education, Social Security, and Medicare. Smaller majorities objected to cutting programs for the poor, national defense, homeland security, aid to farmers, and funding for the arts and sciences." Here is Gallup's chart:

Reaction to Cutting Government Spending in Various Areas, January 2011

Chicago Mayoralty 2011: Rahm Emanuel Far Ahead

Posted Jan 25, 2011 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

Although Rahm Emanuel was just knocked off the ballot in the Chicago mayoral race by a Illinois court for residency issues, a new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll reports that he is considerably ahead. He is also closing in on the majority he needs to win next month's Chicago mayoral race without a run off. Emanuel leads the pack with 44%, followed by Carol Mosely Braun at 21%, Gery Chico at 16%, Miguel del Valle at 7% and 9% undecided.

Increasing Number of Americans View Obama As Moderate

Posted Jan 21, 2011 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

As Political Wire notes, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reveals a potentially significant change in public perception about President Obama: 40% see him as a moderate, as compared with 45% who see him as a liberal and 11% who view him as a conservative. The number of voters who see him as moderate is the highest ever for Obama in the WSJ/NBC poll.

Palin's Favorability Rating Is Dropping

Posted Jan 20, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger

Americans view of Sarah Palin is trending downward. A new USA Today/Gallup poll reports that Sarah Palin's favorable rating has dropped to 38%, her lowest since becoming Sen. John McCain's running mate in 2008. In the days after the controversy over her response to the Tucson shooting--including her remarks about "blood libel"--Palin's unfavorable rating reached new high at 53%.

President Obama's Approval Rating Up

Posted Jan 18, 2011 at 2:11 AM by Maurice Berger

According to two just released polls, the President's approval numbers have risen considerably. In both polls, his support among Democrats and Republicans remain unchanged. The difference: his numbers among independent voters, now up about 15%. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll reports that Obama's approval rating is at 54%, the highest in more than a year. CNN/Opinion Research poll finds Obama's approval rating is up five points to 53% "as a growing number of Americans consider him a strong leader who is tough enough to handle a crisis."

Races To Watch In 2011

Posted Jan 14, 2011 at 12:00 AM by Maurice Berger

Yes, 2011 is defintely a quiet year for electoral activity. But an important one. The 2012 campaigns--from president and congress--will actually start in 2011. So much to watch, especially as we near the first GOP presidential primaries in early-2012. And we'll also be following a few key, "off-year" elections, including:

Chicago mayoral race

Iowa Republican presidential straw poll (The Republican Party of Iowa's 2011 Iowa Straw Poll, set for Aug. 14 at the Iowa State Center in Ames)

Kentucky governor's race

Mississippi governor's race

Dallas mayoral race

Phoenix mayoral race

Louisiana governor's race

 

 

Is The President's Improved Approval Rating A Result Of More Positive Perceptions About The Economy?

Posted Jan 12, 2011 at 5:22 PM by Maurice Berger

Is President Obama's improved approval rating related to more positive public perceptions about the economy. A new Pew Research survey suggests that the answer might be yes: the poll reports that "the percentage saying they are hearing mostly bad news about the economy has dropped to its lowest point since the question was first asked in December 2008. . . Currently, 24% say they are hearing mostly bad news, down 15 points from 39% in early December. The proportion saying they are hearing a mix of good and bad news has jumped from 55% last month to 68% in the new survey."

Emanuel Holds Large Lead In Chicago Mayoral Race

Posted Jan 10, 2011 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger

A Teamsters/Anzalone Liszt poll in Chicago reports that Rahm Emanuel holds a large lead in theChicago mayoral race. Emanuel leads with 42%, Carol Moseley Braun is at 26%, Gery Chico at 10% and Miguel Del Valle at 7%.

Americans More Optimistic About Economy

Posted Jan 05, 2011 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, "Twice as many Americans think the U.S. economy will be better rather than worse in 2011.Americans living in the East and Midwest are a little more optimistic about the economic outlook for 2011 than those living in the South and West. Americans making $75,000 or more in annual income are slightly more optimistic than other Americans, and Democrats are considerably more optimistic than their independent and Republican counterparts."

Here is Gallup's chart:

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President's Support Among Democrats High, But Uneven

Posted Jan 04, 2011 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Rasmussen survey, President Obama's support among Democrats remains high but uneven: "51% of all Democrats Strongly Approve of the president’s performance. When you include those who Somewhat Approve, the president received positive reviews from 82% of those in his party. Yet while 75% of Black Democrats Strongly Approve of the job he's doing as president, only 40% of White Democrats share that level of enthusiasm. That gap is much bigger than it was when Obama first took office in January 2009. During his first week as president, he earned Strong Approval from 88% of Black Democrats and 72% of White Democrats . . .  "

Rasmussen continues: "Among White Democratic men, the president now earns Strong Approval from just 33%. That figure is down from 70% during the president’s first week in office. From an ideological perspective, 60% of Liberal Democrats Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance. Only 14% of Conservative Democrats agree (down from 49% during Obama’s first week as president). Overall, including those who Somewhat Approve, the president’s job approval rating is now at 87% among Liberal Democrats and 42% among Conservative Democrats."

Presidential Approval Remains Steady But Does Not Increase Post-Lame Duck Congress

Posted Jan 03, 2011 at 2:42 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup: President Barack Obama's job approval rating for Dec. 26-28 is 47%, was "down slightly from his post-midterm-election peak of 49% recorded last week, and close to his average level of approval since November. Currently, 46% of Americans disapprove of Obama's job performance. The general stability in Obama's approval rating since the Nov. 2 midterm elections -- in which his party lost majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives -- can be characterized as positive for Obama. Most presidents whose party suffers major midterm losses see their approval ratings fall. However, one might have expected Obama to see a bump in approval from the flurry of legislation passed in Congress prior to the Christmas recess. These include a bipartisan agreement to extend the Bush tax cits, repealing the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy for gay service members, passing a major food safety bill, and Senate ratification of the START arms reduction treaty with Russia."

Rahm Emanuel Holds Huge Lead in Chicago Mayor's Race

Posted Dec 27, 2010 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

Is there a political life for Rahm Emanuel after leaving the White House? The answer would appear to be yes according to a new We Ask America poll shows him with a hefty lead over the rest of the field in the election to become the next mayor of Chicago. Emanuel leads with 44%, followed by Gery Chico at 12%, Carol Moseley Braun at 8%, Danny Davis at 7%, Miguel Del Valle at 6% and James Meeks at 4%.