Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

McCain Most Unpopular US Senator

Posted Mar 25, 2014 at 7:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that GOP Sen. John McCain is now the least popular U.S. Senator in the country: "Only 30% of Arizonans approve of the job McCain is doing to 54% who disapprove. There isn't much variability in his numbers by party- he's at 35/55 with Republicans, 29/53 with Democrats, and 25/55 with independents, suggesting he could be vulnerable to challenges in both the primary and general elections the next time he's up."

Arizona Is Leaning Romney

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 10:31 PM by Maurice Berger

A state he is expected to carry.

Obama Holds Huge Lead Among Latinos in Swing States

Posted Jul 02, 2012 at 12:16 PM by Maurice Berger

Will the Latino vote provide President Obama with the kind of cushion he needs to assure his reelection. A new Latino Decisions poll suggests that the answer may be yes. Obama is now significantly ahead of Mitt Romney among Latino voters in the key swing states of Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia. The survey reports that "In Florida, Obama is leading Romney by a margin of 53% to 37%, a slight increase from a 50% to 40% lead Obama held over Romney in a January 2012 Latino Decisions/Univision News poll in Florida. In the five states combined Obama lead Romney 63% to 27%, however in southwestern battlegrounds of Arizona, Colorado and Nevada Obama performed even better. In Arizona Obama received 74% to 18% for Romney, in Colorado he was favored by 70% to 22% and in Nevada 69% to 20%. In Virginia, Obama lead 59% to 28% over Romney among Latino registered voters." These numbers suggest that the even ordinarily red state of Arizona could be in play this year.

Romney Ahead In Arizona

Posted May 08, 2012 at 8:16 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite the hopes of the Obama campaign for picking up the traditionally Republican state of Arizona--and recent polls suggesting that the state might be competitive in the presidential election--a new survey by Magellan Strategies reports that Mitt Romney holds a considerable +9% lead over President Obama, 52% to 43%.

Obama, Romney in Close Race In Arizona

Posted May 02, 2012 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger

Arizona, a reliable red state in presidential elections, holds some good news for President Obama: a new Rocky Mountain Poll in the state finds President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney, 42% to 40% with 18% undecided. An earlier survey, by Merrill/Morrisson Institute reported a two-point lead for Romney, a surprisingly close race (fueled, in part, by Hispanic voters unhappy with the GOP agenda on immigration issues) for a GOP candidate.

Romney Leading In Tomorrow's GOP Primary In Arizona

Posted Feb 27, 2012 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey from American Research Group reports that Mitt Romney maintains a slim lead in the Arizona GOP primary at 39%, followed by Rick Santorum at 35%, Newt Gingrich at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.


Arizona Primary: Romney Comfortably Ahead

Posted Feb 22, 2012 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by We Ask America in Arizona reports that Mitt Romney is leading in next week's GOP presidential primary with 37%, followed by Rick Santorum at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at 8%.

GOP Nomination: The Contests In February

Posted Feb 01, 2012 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

Mitt Romney's substantial victory in yesterday's Florida primary may give him a significant advantage in the GOP presidential nomination contest, but many more primaries and caucuses lie ahead for the Republican field. Here's a breakdown for February:


  • Nevada caucuses - February 4
  • Maine caucuses - February 4-11
  • Minnesota caucuses - February 7
  • Missouri primary - February 7
  • Colorado caucuses - February 7
  • Arizona primary - February 28
  • Michigan primary - February 29

AZ US Senate 2012: Giffords Leads In Hypothetical Match Up

Posted May 05, 2011 at 11:00 PM by Maurice Berger

If critically wounded Democratic U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords were to run in the 2012 Arizona US Senate race, a new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona reports that she would start out with a 7 point lead in a hypothetical match up with likely GOP candidate Rep. Jeff Flake, 48% to 41%.

Races To Watch In 2011

Posted Jan 14, 2011 at 12:00 AM by Maurice Berger

Yes, 2011 is defintely a quiet year for electoral activity. But an important one. The 2012 campaigns--from president and congress--will actually start in 2011. So much to watch, especially as we near the first GOP presidential primaries in early-2012. And we'll also be following a few key, "off-year" elections, including:

Chicago mayoral race

Iowa Republican presidential straw poll (The Republican Party of Iowa's 2011 Iowa Straw Poll, set for Aug. 14 at the Iowa State Center in Ames)

Kentucky governor's race

Mississippi governor's race

Dallas mayoral race

Phoenix mayoral race

Louisiana governor's race



AZ Immigration Law Popular

Posted Jun 03, 2010 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Quinnipiac University poll reports that American voters--by a 48% to 35% margin--would like to see their state  pass an immigration law similar to Arizona's: "The strong plurality who says they would like a similar law in their own state probably portends the law will be an issue in many, many campaigns this November across the country. Depending on how those elections and court challenges come out, copy cat Arizona laws could be a hot issue in state capitals after November."

Republicans Could Have Serious Problem Come November

Posted May 25, 2010 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

Before Republicans start celebrating what some predict may be a massive victory in November, they may want to take notice of one sobering phenomenon: In Colorado and Arizona, Public Policy Polling reports that Hispanic voters are now swinging dramatically towards Democrats in the wake of Arizona's new immigration law. PPP continues: "Hispanics in the Mountain West are leaning much more strongly toward the Democrats since the Arizona law was passed. The big question then becomes whether there are white voters who are going to go Republican this fall who wouldn't have if that bill hadn't been passed. We don't see any evidence of that happening yet." This trend could easily shift into other states with significant Hispanic populations, effecting very close race in states as disparate as California, Ohio, and Florida, not to mention Colorado and Arizona. Stay tuned. This could be the sleeper phenomenon of the 2010 cycle.

Gallup: Amaericans Who Have Heard Of AZ Immigration Law Favor It

Posted May 04, 2010 at 1:14 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "more than three-quarters of Americans have heard about the state of Arizona's new immigration law, and of these, 51% say they favor it and 39% oppose it . . .  The law makes it a state crime for illegal immigrants to be in the country, and allows Arizona law enforcement officials to detain those suspected of being in the country illegally unless they can prove otherwise. The law has sparked protests in Arizona and other parts of the U.S., and calls for economic boycotts of the state."

McCain Wins His Home State

Posted Nov 04, 2008 at 3:44 PM by Maurice Berger

A fitting coda to John McCain's gracious concession speech: the AP projects that the Republican will win his home state of Arizona. Obama's significant inroads with Hispanics--in many states his margin of victory among these voters approaches 30%--actually tightened the contest in Arizona in recent weeks.

Today's Map: Arizona Moves From "Safe" To "Leaning Republican"

Posted Oct 28, 2008 at 5:17 AM by Maurice Berger

With three new polls showing the race tightening considerably in Arizona, PollTrack moves the state from "Safe" to "Leaning Republican" on Today's Map. That McCain is now struggling in his home state (one poll shows him with a scant 2% lead) is a truly amazing development, though PollTrack believes the Arizona Senator will pull the state out in the end.