Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL Predictions for NJ snd CA Democratic Primary

Posted Jun 07, 2016 at 10:45 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack predicts wins for Hillary Clinton in today's New Jersey and California Democratic primaries. 

Predictions For New Jersey and California Democratic Primaries

Posted May 20, 2016 at 11:23 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack predicts wins for Hillary Clinton in both the New Jersey and California Democratic primaries scheduled for 7 June. Predictions will be revised as we move closer to the primaries. 

CA Gov: Brown Way Ahead

Posted May 28, 2014 at 8:20 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Public Policy Institute of California poll reports that California Gov. Jerry Brown leads the state's nonpartisan primary with 48%, followed by Republican Tim Donnelly (R) at 15% and Neel Kashkari at 10%.

The Most and Least Trusted State Governments?

Posted Apr 07, 2014 at 8:38 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Gallup poll reports that Illinois tops the list for state residents with the lowest trust in their state government:  “llinois’ position at the bottom of the list … is not surprising, given that its last two governors, Rod Blagojevich and George Ryan, were sentenced to jail for crimes committed while in office.” Here is Gallup's chart for the most and least trusted states. 

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CA Gov: Incumbent Democrat Way Ahead

Posted Apr 01, 2014 at 9:36 AM by Maurice Berger

It looks like Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown may sail to reelection in California. A new Public Policy Institute of California poll reports that Brown leads the race for governor with 47%, followed by Republicans Tim Donnelly at 10% and Neel Kashkari and Andrew Blount (R) at just 2%

CA Gov. Brown Riding High In Polls

Posted Dec 16, 2013 at 12:10 PM by Maurice Berger

A new Field Poll reports that California Gov. Jerry Brown's  approval rating "has surged to a new high, and he is the overwhelming early favorite to win re-election next year." 58% approve of the governor's job performance. He leads his closest Republican challengers--former Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado (and Assemblyman Tim Donnelly--by more than 40 points.

CA Governor: Is The Popular Incumbent A Reelection Underdog

Posted Nov 12, 2013 at 12:36 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times, more than half "say they approve of the job Brown is doing as governor -- the highest rating since he retook the governor's office in 2011. Yet only 32% say they are inclined to vote for Brown if he seeks an unprecedented fourth term as California's chief executive next year." 

A Pending Latino Majority In CA

Posted Jul 05, 2013 at 8:42 AM by Maurice Berger

"Perhaps today or certainly sometime very soon, another baby will be born or a new immigrant will arrive and the number of Latinos in California will equal the state's non-Hispanic white population," writes the Sacramento Bee. "The change... has long been predicted by state demographers. It won't instantly make Latinos an equally powerful political force in California, or bring their incomes into parity with non-Hispanic whites, or close the school achievement gap. But it is an important milestone - and a reminder that these other goals will become easier to achieve as the number of Latinos continues to grow."

CA Governor Maintains Stable Approval Rating

Posted May 31, 2013 at 10:12 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite his state's continuing economic woes, Democratic California Governor Jerry Brown maintains a relatively stable approval rating. A new poll by Public Policy Institute reports that 48% of voters approve of Brown's job performance while just 36% disapprove 

Americans Access Congressional Leaders

Posted May 23, 2013 at 6:23 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Gallup, "the top Republican and Democratic leaders in the U.S. House and Senate are a generally unpopular foursome, with Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi being the most well-known, but also the least well-liked. 31% of Americans view Pelosi favorably and 48% unfavorably. Her resulting net -17 image score compares with -11 for Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, -10 for Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner, and -8 for Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell."

Tight Mayoral Race In LA

Posted May 13, 2013 at 2:39 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by the Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs reports that Wendy Greuel and Eric Garcetti are in a virtual dead heat in the Los Angeles mayoral race, where Greuel leads Garcetti by a scant +2%--46% to 45%--among likely voters; 9% remain undecided. The elections is on 21 May 21.

A Leader In The LA Mayor's Race

Posted Apr 22, 2013 at 10:29 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by USC Price/Los Angeles Times reports that Eric Garcetti now leads by +10% in the Los Angeles mayor's race over rival Wendy Greuel--50% to 40%. According to an analysis of the survey, Greuel's "dogged fight to win the backing of public employee unions appears to be undercutting her on her home turf in the San Fernando Valley... The survey also found no sign of success for Greuel's effort to gain an edge among women by highlighting her potential to make history as the city's first female mayor. Women preferred Garcetti, 50% to 41%."

Romney Holds Huge Lead In California Primary

Posted Mar 26, 2012 at 12:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times in California reports that Mitt Romney holds a whopping +19% lead over Rick Santorum in the GOP presidential race, at 42% to 23%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12% and Ron Paul at 10%.

Election 2012: Gingrich Leads In CA, PA, and VA

Posted Dec 20, 2011 at 3:11 AM by Maurice Berger

In case you're wonderful about other GOP primary states, here a breakdown of the standing of the GOP field in several of the larger states. In CA, PA, and VA, at least, Gingrich appears to be in the lead. Given the erosion of Gingrich's support in most recent polling, however, PollTrack suggests that these results should be view with a good degree of skepticism. In any case, Newt Gingrich leads by considerable margins in the key states:

CALIFORNIA (Public Policy Institute): Gingrich 33%, Romney 25%, Paul 9%, Bachmann 7%, Perry 4%, Santorum 4% and Huntsman 2%.

PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Polling and Research):  Gingrich 8%, Bachmann 6%, and Perry 2%.

VIRGINIA (Public Policy Polling survey): Gingrich 41%, Romney 15%, Perry 8%, Bachmann 8%, Santorum 6%, Paul 6% and Huntsman 3%.

 

Election 2012: Romney Ahead In GOP Primary In CA

Posted Jun 22, 2011 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Field Poll in California reports: Mitt Romney "holds a solid lead over his 2012 GOP presidential rivals among the state's Republican voters . . . Romney is preferred by 25 percent of registered GOP voters, giving the former Massachusetts governor a double-digit lead over each of his challengers. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, viewed as Romney's leading competitor for the nomination, barely registered in the poll, earning just 3 percent support . . .

Romney's closest competition comes from two candidates who haven't even joined the race to deny Democratic President Obama a second term: former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (17 percent), and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (10 percent). If Giuliani is taken out of the field, Romney's lead widens - to 30 percent and a more than 2-to-1 lead over Palin at 12 percent in second position, the poll shows."

California Continues To Trend Democratic

Posted Dec 02, 2010 at 1:18 AM by Maurice Berger

With its treasure trove of 55 winner take all Electoral Votes, California is important to President Obama's reelection prospects in 2012. A new analysis, suggests that the Democrats are well positioned in the state. A Los Angeles Times/USC poll reports that California voters, by a wide margin, are reluctant to support GOP candidates. "Strikingly, almost one in five California voters said they would never cast a ballot for a Republican," the survey reports. "Among Latinos, that rose to almost one in three. Only 5% of California voters were as emphatically anti-Democrat . . . The negative overlay both explained and helped determine the fates of the party's candidates in November. As a GOP tide swept the nation, Republicans here lost all statewide offices, with one contest, for attorney general, still unresolved but leaning toward the Democrat. Republicans here also failed to gain any congressional seats and lost a legislative seat."

Republicans Could Have Serious Problem Come November

Posted May 25, 2010 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

Before Republicans start celebrating what some predict may be a massive victory in November, they may want to take notice of one sobering phenomenon: In Colorado and Arizona, Public Policy Polling reports that Hispanic voters are now swinging dramatically towards Democrats in the wake of Arizona's new immigration law. PPP continues: "Hispanics in the Mountain West are leaning much more strongly toward the Democrats since the Arizona law was passed. The big question then becomes whether there are white voters who are going to go Republican this fall who wouldn't have if that bill hadn't been passed. We don't see any evidence of that happening yet." This trend could easily shift into other states with significant Hispanic populations, effecting very close race in states as disparate as California, Ohio, and Florida, not to mention Colorado and Arizona. Stay tuned. This could be the sleeper phenomenon of the 2010 cycle.

Obama Victory Not Tied To Voter Surge

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 4:22 AM by Maurice Berger

While Obama was able to count on an increase in intensity of support and turnout among African-American, Hispanic, and young voters, his victory was not built on a surge of voters (as his campaign had hoped). According to Bloomberg News: The Democrats "bet on an unprecedented surge of new voters to carry him to victory last month . . . but [Obama] won without the record turnout . . .  About 130 million Americans voted, up from 122 million four years ago. Still, turnout fell short of the 140 million voters many experts had forecast. With a little more than 61 percent of eligible voters casting ballots, the 2008 results also didn't match the record 63.8 percent turnout rate that helped propel President John F. Kennedy to victory in 1960."The reasons for this shortfall were complex and varied: "Many disaffected Republicans stayed home. Young voters, particularly those without college degrees, didn’t turn out in the numbers that the Obama campaign projected. In states where the presidential race wasn’t in doubt -- such as Obama strongholds in California and New York, or reliably Republican outposts such as Oklahoma and Utah -- turnout was lower than in 2004."

BARACK OBAMA IS PRESIDENT ELECT!

Posted Nov 04, 2008 at 3:02 PM by Maurice Berger

With California's 55 electoral votes, Barack Obama is now president-elect of the United States.

Obama Will Probably Pass The Magic Number at 11:00 PM EST

Posted Nov 04, 2008 at 2:40 PM by Maurice Berger

Barack Obama will most probably become the next president of the United States within the next half hour, with California and Washington placing him over the 270 EV threshold. A very historic moment is upon us, after one of the most amazing US presidential cycles of the past half century. PollTrack has been honored to guide our loyal and enthusiastic visitors, to listen to what you have to say, and together producing a new and exciting website all about understanding the complexities of a very complex election.

FINAL Daily Tracking Poll Average: Obama, +6.1%, 51.6% to 45.5%

Posted Nov 04, 2008 at 4:29 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's FINAL election day daily tracking poll average puts Obama in the lead by +6.1%--51.6% to 45.5%. One poll indicates that undecided voters have moved sharply in McCain's direction (GWU/Battleground-Tarrance model), another indicates a big shift of undecided and persuadable voters for Obama (IBD/TIPP). One thing to consider: with Obama racking up enormous margins in many of the nation's most populous states (CA, NY, IL, MA, for example), leads as high as +25% or more, as well as many of the Kerry-blue states--and McCain taking a number of red states by very modest margins--this final tracking number may not reflect the relative closeness in a number of the remaining swing and battleground states.

Daily Tracking Average: Obama Bumps Up An Additional +1.6%

Posted Nov 03, 2008 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger

Today's daily tracking poll average indicates a comfortable national aggregate lead of +6.6% for the Democrat, 50.6% to 44%. Still, with Obama up as much as +25% in states with some of the largest populations--such as CA, NY, MA, IL, MI--this national number may not reflect the relativeness closeness of the race in several key battleground states, including OH, NC, and FL. Much of today's polling continues to indicate an unusually large bloc of undecided or still persuadable voters. IBD/TIPP puts the figure at an amazing 9.5% undecided. A just issued CBS News periodic poll indicates a 6% undecided block. And Rasmussen still indicates that 10% of voters remain uncertain, lean to one candidate, or intend to vote for a third party candidate. The large undecided bloc that continues to register in some polls is unusually high the day before a national cycle, particularly one with as much voter enthusiasm as this one. Where will these voters wind up, if and when they vote?

 

Daily Tracking Poll Average: National Average Tightens Overnight

Posted Nov 02, 2008 at 5:31 AM by Maurice Berger

This afternoon, four of five tracking polls out today report that the race has tightening over the past 24 hours (except for the erratic Zobgy survey). Today's PollTrack daily tracking poll average indicates that Obama's lead is down -1.3% from yesterday to 49.8% to 44.8%, for an aggregate advantage of +5% DEM. One poll, TIPP, the most accurate in 2004, reports a dramatic tightening of the race (Obama by +2%, 47% to 45%): "The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates." One other thing to consider, with Obama's national lead down to 5%--and his lead in high-population Kerry-blue states such as NY, IL, CA, MA, and NJ ballooning to 15-25% in most--the shrinking national total might also suggest that the races in more highly competitive battleground states may be drawing closer. Stay tuned.

Obama: Ad War Dominance

Posted Oct 29, 2008 at 6:44 AM by Maurice Berger

In a sign of the economic disparity between the two presidential campaigns, Nielsen reports that Obama continues to outspend McCain in the key battleground states: "In Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, Obama placed 155% more ad units (62,022 vs. 24,273) than McCain between October 6 and October 26, 2008... Obama's advertising continues to be heaviest in Florida, where he ran 18,909 ads between October 6 and October 26, outpacing McCain's 5,702 ads by 232%." Over the past few days, Nielsen reports, McCain has closed the gap slightly. More eye-popping, perhaps, is the Republican's newest ad buy: Montana, a state George W. Bush won by nearly twenty points four years ago." Yet, despite this enormous disparity, the race remains close in most of these states, though all, except PA, lean Republican.

Is Either Candidate Pulling Ahead?

Posted Sep 13, 2008 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack has received a number of E-mails from Democrats concerned about Obama's chances in November. The short answer: no candidate is decisively ahead and the race is fairly even both in national support and electoral votes. It is clear that McCain came out of his convention stronger than Obama. It is also true that the momentum is now with the Republican. But the race is close enough that either candidate can win. By contrast, President Bush came out of his convention in 2004 with a sizable bounce that he maintained throughout much of September. Strong debate performances by Sen. John Kerry allowed the Democrat to narrow the gap considerably, though not entirely close it.

PollTrack suspects that the debates will be an important factor in this election. Since 1960 in presidential races in which debates were held (1960, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004), the debates were usually decisive. Indeed in contested cycles, where an incumbent did not sail to victory--races that include all but 1984 and 1996--the debates were the decisive factor in most instances. Here are a few debate bloopers and  successes that really made a difference: Nixon's listless appearance and five-o'clock shadow in 1960; Ford's gaffe about Poland in 1976; Dukakis' cold and dispassionate response to a question about whether his liberal views about crime and punishment would be shaken if his own wife were raped; Reagan's ability to convince a skeptical nation that he was not an extremist in 1980; and George H. W. Bush caught on camera glancing at his watch while his opponent, Bill Clinton, was addressing dire economic issues in 1992.

In the short term: watch to see if McCain's bounce translates into improvement in the statewide contest for electoral votes. Right now, the answer is a mixed bag: McCain appears to be benefiting form a sizable bounce in Southern states and smaller but marked improvement in number of western, plains and Rocky Mountain states. Obama's numbers remain very strong in New England (save New Hampshire). Numbers for the mid-west, rust belt, and mid-Atlantic states are unclear at this point, though Obama appears to be loosing a little ground in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. New York and California seem solidly behind the Democrat.