Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Milestone: Majority Of Americans Now Support Gay Marriage

Posted Mar 25, 2011 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger

According to polls conducted by ABC News/Washington Post, "more than half of Americans say it should be legal for gays and lesbians to marry, a first in nearly a decade of polls" conducted by these organizations. "This milestone result caps a dramatic, long-term shift in public attitudes. From a low of 32 percent in a 2004 survey of registered voters, support for gay marriage has grown to 53 percent today. Forty-four percent are opposed, down 18 points from that 2004 survey." Another survey indicates from Public Religion Research Institute reports that 43% of Catholics are now in favor of allowing gay and lesbian people to marry, 31% in favor of civil unions, and 22% who said there should be no legal recognition of a gay relationship. Just as significant, 39% of Catholics approve of the church's negative treatment of the issue of homosexuality; 56% do not.

Obama Job Approval Varies Among Religious Groups

Posted Sep 02, 2010 at 1:38 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup analysis, "Muslim Americans continue to give President Barack Obama the highest job approval rating of any major religious group in the U.S., while Mormons give the president the lowest ratings." Here is Gallup's chart:

Obama Job Approval by Religious Group, First Half and Second Half of 2009, and First Seven Months of 2010

Of Five Major US Religions, Jews Are Obama's Biggest Supporters

Posted Oct 06, 2009 at 2:56 AM by Maurice Berger

Tracking the relative support of the president in the month of September, Gallup reports that 64% of U.S. Jews approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, significantly higher than the 52% average among national adults in September, and also higher than was seen among Catholics, Protestants, and Mormons. Only nonreligious Americans equal Jews in their support for the president. Here is Gallup's chart:


President Barack Obama Job Approval, by Religion -- September 2009

Among Three Major Religions, Jewish Voters Are Obama's Biggest Supporters

Posted May 05, 2009 at 11:35 PM by Maurice Berger

By a sunstantial margin, American Jews--far more than either Catholics or Protestants--are President Obama's biggest supporters. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, there is a big religious split as white Catholics approve of the President 57% to 33% while white Protestants split 44% to 42%. Jewish voters back Obama 76% to 12%. The numbers among Jewish voters closely match their sopport of the Democrat last November which hovered around 80% (78%, to be exact).

Gallup: Hispanic Voters Divided By Religion

Posted Oct 23, 2008 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A Gallup survey released on Tuesday reports that while Hispanic voters support Barack Obama by a wide margin over John McCain, there is a significant difference in the Hispanic vote by religion: "Catholic Hispanics support Obama by a 39-point margin, while Hispanics who are Protestant or who identify with some other non-Catholic Christian faith support Obama by a much smaller 10-point margin." Obama's leads overall among all Hispanic registered voters by 62% to 30%. It is doubtful that this disparity will impact on the outcome of the election, unless, of course, it is very close.

The Fluid Independent Voter

Posted Oct 01, 2008 at 7:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Yesterday's ABC News/Washington Post survey observed that independent voters appear to be unusually fluid this cycle: "Movement continues among independents, quintessential swing voters and a highly changeable group this year. They favored McCain by 10 points immediately after the Republican convention, swung to Obama last week and stand now at a close division between the two – 48 percent for McCain, 45 percent for Obama" Another key voter bloc, Catholic voters--they've gone with the winner in last eight presidential elections--also appear to be quite fluid: "Preferences in this group are steady from last week,but essentially evenly divided – 47-46 percent, McCain-Obama. They had tilted heavily to McCain after his convention." Have these vital groups of swing voters settled into place? The fact that Obama's lead has decreased by 6% from last week's ABC News/WP survey (the Democrat's advantage was +9% last Tuesday; other polls continue to show a 4.5% lead on average)  suggests that the election may continue to be fluid. The answer could very well determine the outcome and/or the closeness of this election.