Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL Predictions: 26 April Democratic Primaries

Posted Apr 25, 2016 at 9:58 AM by Maurice Berger

Connecticut

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Delaware

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Maryland

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Pennsylvania

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Rhode Island

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

FINAL Predictions: 26 April GOP Primaries

Posted Apr 25, 2016 at 9:55 AM by Maurice Berger

Connecticut

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

 

Delaware

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

 

Maryland

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

 

Pennsylvania

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Ted Cruz

3. John Kasich

 

Rhode Island

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

Predictions: 26 April GOP Primaries

Posted Apr 21, 2016 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger

Connecticut

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

 

Delaware

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

 

Maryland

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

 

Pennsylvania

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Ted Cruz

3. John Kasich

 

Rhode Island

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

Predictions: 26 April Democratic Primaries

Posted Apr 21, 2016 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

Connecticut

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Delaware

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Maryland

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Pennsylvania

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Rhode Island

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

Charlie Cook's Crystal Ball: Congressional Midterm Elections, 2010

Posted Jun 10, 2009 at 1:50 AM by Maurice Berger

The brilliant political analyst Charlie Cook--taking an early look at the electoral landscape for the 2010 congressional midterm election--predicts a split decision, "with Republicans picking up a few House seats but losing a Senate seat or two. The difference is that Democrats have the larger number of vulnerable House districts, while Senate Republicans have more seats that are in serious jeopardy."

Cook on the House: "Having gained 54 House seats over the past two elections, Democrats now represent 49 districts that GOP presidential nominee John McCain won last year. By comparison, Republicans represent 34 districts that Obama won. Simple arithmetic indicates that in the absence of overwhelming hostility toward the Republican Party, the GOP ought to gain a few, maybe even a dozen or so, House seats."

Cook on the Senate: "On the Senate side, the math is a bit different and is not driven directly by the results of the past two elections. In 2010, Republicans will be defending 19 seats, only one more than Democrats will. Originally, Republicans would have had 20 seats to defend versus 15 for the Democrats, but that changed with Joe Biden's election to the vice presidency and Hillary Rodham Clinton's selection as secretary of State. Two Democratic seats that would not have been up again until 2014 and 2012, respectively, will be in 2010. Add in Arlen Specter's party switch, and next year's lineup brings almost complete parity in the parties' exposure."

For more of Cook's fascinating analysis click here.

Election Day Map Today

Posted Sep 15, 2008 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Based on statewide polling over the past month, PollTrack has a number of new calls on Election Day Map Today. In the coming weeks--as trends are established and voter opinion appears to be solidifying--more states will be added to the final tally. Stay tuned . . .

Joe Biden: The VP Effect + New Call Delaware: Leaning to Safe

Posted Aug 23, 2008 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Well, it's Sen. Joe Biden (D-DEL). The immediate question: how will his selection as Obama's running mate impact on their standing in the polls and electorally? For one, PollTrack will now move Delaware from ""likely Democrat" to "safe Democrat."

Beyond this, the implications of Biden's role on the ticket are unclear electorally. There is no one swing state that Biden can help lock in for Obama (as LBJ did for JFK in Texas in 1960, and Kaine or Bayh might have accomplished in this cycle, with Virginia or Indiana respectively). His experience, of course, could help with voters concerned about Obama's inexperience, a serious problem for him at the moment (see below, "Tightening Race: Crisis Management").

The big hurdle that Obama now faces, however--one that accounts to a great extent for the closeness of the race--is that McCain has unified his party and Obama has not. Will selecting Biden help bring disgruntled Clinton supporters into the fold, for example?  This seems unlikely right now.  And, of course, the VP selection rarely significantly alters the dynamics of an election.