Posted Apr 25, 2016 at 9:58 AM by Maurice Berger
Connecticut
1. Hillary Clinton WINNER
2. Bernie Sanders
Delaware
1. Hillary Clinton WINNER
2. Bernie Sanders
Maryland
1. Hillary Clinton WINNER
2. Bernie Sanders
Pennsylvania
1. Hillary Clinton WINNER
2. Bernie Sanders
Rhode Island
1. Hillary Clinton WINNER
2. Bernie Sanders
Posted Apr 25, 2016 at 9:55 AM by Maurice Berger
Connecticut
1. Donald Trump WINNER
2. John Kasich
3. Ted Cruz
Delaware
1. Donald Trump WINNER
2. John Kasich
3. Ted Cruz
Maryland
1. Donald Trump WINNER
2. John Kasich
3. Ted Cruz
Pennsylvania
1. Donald Trump WINNER
2. Ted Cruz
3. John Kasich
Rhode Island
1. Donald Trump WINNER
2. John Kasich
3. Ted Cruz
Posted Apr 21, 2016 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger
Connecticut
1. Donald Trump WINNER
2. John Kasich
3. Ted Cruz
Delaware
1. Donald Trump WINNER
2. John Kasich
3. Ted Cruz
Maryland
1. Donald Trump WINNER
2. John Kasich
3. Ted Cruz
Pennsylvania
1. Donald Trump WINNER
2. Ted Cruz
3. John Kasich
Rhode Island
1. Donald Trump WINNER
2. John Kasich
3. Ted Cruz
Posted Apr 21, 2016 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger
Connecticut
1. Hillary Clinton WINNER
2. Bernie Sanders
Delaware
1. Hillary Clinton WINNER
2. Bernie Sanders
Maryland
1. Hillary Clinton WINNER
2. Bernie Sanders
Pennsylvania
1. Hillary Clinton WINNER
2. Bernie Sanders
Rhode Island
1. Hillary Clinton WINNER
2. Bernie Sanders
Posted Jun 10, 2009 at 1:50 AM by Maurice Berger
The brilliant political analyst Charlie Cook--taking an early look at the electoral landscape for the 2010 congressional midterm election--predicts a split decision, "with Republicans picking up a few House seats but losing a Senate seat or two. The difference is that Democrats have the larger number of vulnerable House districts, while Senate Republicans have more seats that are in serious jeopardy."
Cook on the House: "Having gained 54 House seats over the past two elections, Democrats now represent 49 districts that GOP presidential nominee John McCain won last year. By comparison, Republicans represent 34 districts that Obama won. Simple arithmetic indicates that in the absence of overwhelming hostility toward the Republican Party, the GOP ought to gain a few, maybe even a dozen or so, House seats."
Cook on the Senate: "On the Senate side, the math is a bit different and is not driven directly by the results of the past two elections. In 2010, Republicans will be defending 19 seats, only one more than Democrats will. Originally, Republicans would have had 20 seats to defend versus 15 for the Democrats, but that changed with Joe Biden's election to the vice presidency and Hillary Rodham Clinton's selection as secretary of State. Two Democratic seats that would not have been up again until 2014 and 2012, respectively, will be in 2010. Add in Arlen Specter's party switch, and next year's lineup brings almost complete parity in the parties' exposure."
Posted Sep 15, 2008 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger
Based on statewide polling over the past month, PollTrack has a number of new calls on Election Day Map Today. In the coming weeks--as trends are established and voter opinion appears to be solidifying--more states will be added to the final tally. Stay tuned . . .
Posted Aug 23, 2008 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger
Well, it's Sen. Joe Biden (D-DEL). The immediate question: how will his selection as Obama's running mate impact on their standing in the polls and electorally? For one, PollTrack will now move Delaware from ""likely Democrat" to "safe Democrat."
Beyond this, the implications of Biden's role on the ticket are unclear electorally. There is no one swing state that Biden can help lock in for Obama (as LBJ did for JFK in Texas in 1960, and Kaine or Bayh might have accomplished in this cycle, with Virginia or Indiana respectively). His experience, of course, could help with voters concerned about Obama's inexperience, a serious problem for him at the moment (see below, "Tightening Race: Crisis Management").
The big hurdle that Obama now faces, however--one that accounts to a great extent for the closeness of the race--is that McCain has unified his party and Obama has not. Will selecting Biden help bring disgruntled Clinton supporters into the fold, for example? This seems unlikely right now. And, of course, the VP selection rarely significantly alters the dynamics of an election.
11/08/2016
FINAL: Clinton-322 Trump-216 TCTC-0
11/07/2016
Clinton-307 Trump-216 TCTC-15
11/07/2016
Clinton-308 Trump-215 TCTC-15
11/05/2016
Clinton-297 Trump-215 TCTC-26
11/03/2016
Clinton-312 Trump-215 TCTC-11
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