Posted Mar 04, 2010 at 9:38 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup survey, "Democrats were less negative than either independents or Republicans
about the economy in February, as has been the case since shortly after
President Barack Obama took office in early 2009. Democrats' -10
reading on Gallup's Economic Confidence Index in February compares to
-34 among independents and -44 among Republicans . . . Americans' views of the economy clearly reflect their political
orientation and can vary sharply, depending on which party controls the
White House. Republicans are most positive when there is a Republican
president. Democrats are the most positive when the president is a
Democrat."
Tagged: 2010, consumer confidence, Democratic Party, Independent Voters, Republican Party
Posted Feb 23, 2010 at 9:36 AM by Maurice Berger
In what is surely a troubling sign for Democrats, the party appears to be loosing young voters--a key component of President Obama's margin of victory in 2008: "The "Millennial Generation" of young voters played a big role in the
resurgence of the Democratic Party in the 2006 and 2008 elections, but
their attachment to the Democratic Party weakened markedly over the
course of 2009. The Democratic advantage over the Republicans in party
affiliation among young voters, including those who "lean" to a party,
reached a whopping 62% to 30% margin in 2008. But by the end of 2009
this 32-point margin had shrunk to just 14 points: 54% Democrat, 40%
Republican." Still, as the survey reports, "While
the Republican Party picked up support from Millennials during 2009,
this age group continues to favor the Democratic Party more than do
other generations. And the underlying political values of this new
generation continue to be significantly more liberal than those of
other generations on many measures.
Tagged: 2008 Election, 2010, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Younger Voters
Posted Jan 22, 2010 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger
Republican pollster Frank Luntz fires a warning shot to Democrats in his analysis of the president's declining popularity. While his overall opinion of--and some of his ideas about--the seriousness of the dilemma now facing Democrats may be colored by ideology, two of his points about looming red flags are backed up by the results of a number of non-partisan public opinion surveys:
• According to Gallup, Obama has suffered the greatest fall in
approval of any elected president since the company started ongoing
tracking during the Eisenhower administration. Obama came into office
with the approval of two out of every three voters (67 percent) but
ended his first year with just half the electorate (50 percent)
offering a positive evaluation of his performance. Only the unelected
Gerald Ford fared worse in the court of public opinion.
• While
the Republican brand has barely moved since its electoral disasters of
2006 and 2008 and remains unpopular, Democratic popularity has
collapsed as well. Most surveys now have the GOP even or even slightly
ahead in the generic congressional ballot, and Americans now see the
Republicans to be as good if not better in handling the economy.
What Luntz fails to point out, however, is that the Republican brand is suffering as well: A new Public Policy Polling poll reports that only 19% of voters nationally are happy with the direction
of the Republican Party, compared to 56% who are unhappy with it. Even more surprising--GOP voters are not particularly happy with the direction of their own party: just 35% support the direction of the party; 38% say
they are unhappy.
Tagged: 2010, President Barack Obama, presidential approval ratings, partisan identification, US Congress, congressional genrtic ballot, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Posted Jan 08, 2010 at 10:20 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack suggests taking a look at this informative New York Times round table on the upcoming midterm elections. While certain political signs point to possibly significant Democratic loses (presidential job approval below 50%, shrinking Democratic partisan identification, a GOP lead on the Congressional Generic ballot), it is still too early to tell. An improved economy--and an uptick in job creation--could well benefit the Democrats (ten months is a relatively long time in the politics of the Internet age). Or continued stagnation may well add seats to the GOP column. Will shrinking Democratic turnout--relative to last year's wave of enthusiasm for candidate Obama--ultimately hurt the party in power or will Democrats, still weary from 8-years of George W. Bush, turn out in sufficient numbers to keep things stable? Click here for the complete NYT round table.
Tagged: 2010, congressional genrtic ballot, Democratic Party, President Barack Obama, Republican Party, US Congress, Voter Enthusiasm, partisan identification
Posted Dec 29, 2009 at 10:21 AM by Maurice Berger
A new CNN/Opinion Research survey reports that a majority of Americans believe that the Democratic
party's policy proposals are good for the country--51% to 46%. By a margin of 53% to 42%, the public in stark contrast rejects Republican policies, believing they will move the country in the wrong direction.
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, Republican Party, voter expectations
Posted Dec 23, 2009 at 9:32 AM by Maurice Berger
Are Democrats in trouble due to lack of enthusiasm? CQ Politics reports that "a national survey conducted jointly by a prominent pollster from
each of the major parties underscored what has become a theme in the
year before the midterm elections. Republicans and independent voters
who now are leaning Republican are more fired up to vote in 2010 than
Democratic voters . . . The poll of 1,000 Americans deemed likely to vote, taken Dec. 6-9,
found that 77 percent of both Republican and independent respondents
said they are extremely likely to vote in the 2010 elections. Among
Democratic respondents, 64 percent said they are extremely likely to
vote. This is worrisome for Democrats, as it is a flip of voters'
political attitudes in the 2006 and 2008 elections, which saw them win
and grow majorities in both chambers of Congress and capture the White
House. The Democratic Party prospered over the past two election cycles
because Republicans and Republican-leaning independents -- disappointed
with President George W. Bush and the congressional GOP -- were less
fired up to vote than Democrats seeking change."
Tagged: Democratic Party, partisan identification, Republican Party, Voter Enthusiasm, 2010
Posted Dec 17, 2009 at 9:40 AM by Maurice Berger
There is change in the air, at least in how Democrats will pick their presidential nominee in 2012: The DNC Change Commission, charged with revamping the nominating process, discussed draft findings and
recommendations regarding the timing of primaries/caucuses, the role of
super delegates, and caucus issues . . . As to timing, the discussion was relatively brief and consistent
with prior discussions--Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada can [start voting] after Feb. 1, every
other state goes after March 1, the rules should encourage regional
clusters by offering incentives such as bonus delegates, the RBC will
address enforcement procedures and sanctions, and the DNC will try to
coordinate timing with the RNC rules committee. The RNC coordination
process is ongoing. Commission members recognized that the best hope for a spread out
process lies with agreement with the RNC on starting date, both parties
imposing the same penalties for going out of turn, incentives to states
to move back and cluster, and the states recognition that frontloading
is no longer the best way to get attention."
Tagged: Election 2012, Democratic Party
Posted Dec 15, 2009 at 9:38 AM by Maurice Berger
Per MSNBC First Read: "A new CNBC poll . . . has Obama’s economic approval rating at 46%, the
Democratic Party’s at 39%, and the GOP’s at 26%. Also in the poll, a
plurality (43%) believes the economy will improve in the course of the
next year. And the survey shows a lack in confidence in American
institutions: 77% say they have confidence in the military, compared
with 39% for the Supreme Court, 24% for the Fed, 19% for the Treasury
Department, 18% for FEMA, 17% for health insurance companies, 15% for
Congress, and 10% for the financial industry. Ouch. Here’s one more
thing: By a 54%-33% margin, Americans say they prefer using the
leftover TARP money for deficit reduction rather than for more stimulus
spending."
Tagged: 2009, 2010, economic crisis, ecology, voter expectations, President Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Posted Dec 10, 2009 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Rasmussen, "the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell by
nearly two percentage points in November. Added to declines earlier in
the year, the number of Democrats in the nation has fallen by five
percentage points during 2009. In November, 36.0% of American adults said they were Democrats. That’s down from 37.8% a month ago and the lowest number of Democrats since December 2005 . . . The number of Republicans inched up by just over a point in November to
33.1%. That’s within the narrow range that Republicans have experienced
throughout 2009 - from a low of 31.9% to a high of 33.6%."
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, partisan identification, Republican Party
Posted Dec 08, 2009 at 9:37 AM by Maurice Berger
The congressional generic ballot, which asks voters to indicate for which party do they intend to voter for the US House of Representatives next November, now shows the two parties virtually tied. PollTrack's averaging of recent polls on the question shows a tiny +0.4% lead for the Democrats: DEM 44.8% to REP 44.4%.
Tagged: congressional genrtic ballot, Democratic Party, 2010, Republican Party, US House RACE CHART
Posted Dec 01, 2009 at 9:13 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that Americans are ambivalent, at best, about the state of the economy. The poll ""reveals a more pessimistic electorate than we have seen since the
early months of 2009, with feelings on the economy turning more
negative after months of slight but steady improvement." Who is benefitting from this doubt, Democrats or Republicans? Hard to tell according to PPP: "The country is not ready to listen to a narrative
about how Democrats have brought the economy 'back from the brink' and
averted an even worse disaster, as articulated by the president in his
joint session address to Congress earlier this year. That leaves a lot
of receptivity to Republican messages that focus on wasted spending and
exploding deficits." Yet, half of the voters in swing (but Republican-leaning) districts continue to "believe
that President Obama’s economic recovery plan could help," a number that suggests the
economy could still break in favor of Democrats.
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, economic crisis, economy, Republican Party, President Barack Obama
Posted Nov 17, 2009 at 9:53 AM by Maurice Berger
Veteran analyst Stu Rothenberg, analyzing the rest of the 2009 off-year races, argues that the Democratic brand may be in trouble in the 2010 midterm elections: "Now it will be the GOP who can push the “culture of corruption”
argument that Democrats used so successfully in the recent past. Now
Republicans will complain about high unemployment numbers, about
causalities in Afghanistan and the administration’s foreign policy and
about the government’s inability to get H1N1 flu shots to the American
public. Moreover, as we are already seeing with health care
reform, the internal contradictions of the Democratic Party are
becoming apparent. For the past year, the national media have been
focused on internal Republican divisions. But now, a fracturing in the
Democratic ranks is likely to give plenty of fodder for journalists,
columnists and talking heads. This is likely to further erode
Democratic poll numbers."
Rothenberg also points out that such shifts in voter sentiment, away from the party principally in power, are fairly common in midterm cycles: "There is nothing unnatural about this,
of course. It’s the inevitable result of a party gaining more than 50
seats over the past four years, including in districts that are
conservative and lean Republican. And it always happens when one party
controls both chambers of Congress and the White House."
Tagged: 2009, 2010, Democratic Party, President Barack Obama, Republican Party, US Congress
Posted Oct 29, 2009 at 9:47 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new CNN/Opinion Research survey, the "Republican Party's favorable rating among Americans is at lowest level in at least a decade, according to a new national poll. 36% of people questioned "say they have a favorable opinion of
the Republican Party, with 54 percent viewing the GOP negatively. According to the poll, 53 percent have a positive opinion of the
Democratic Party, with 41 percent holding an unfavorable view. The
survey indicates that favorable ratings for the Democrats have dropped
5 points since February, with the Republican number slipping 3 points. 'The Republican party may still be battling the legacy left to them
by George W. Bush," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. 'They
have also spent a lot of time in 2009 working against Democratic
proposals. That hasn't left them a lot of time so far this year to
present a positive, post-Bush message. Of course, there is still plenty
of time for them to do so before the 2010 midterms.'"
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Voter Enthusiasm
Posted Oct 01, 2009 at 10:29 AM by Maurice Berger
A new analysis by Gallup suggests that the Democratic Party may be loosing a bit of steam, as the gap in party identification has narrowed considerably in recent months: " In the third quarter of this year, 48% of Americans identified
politically as Democrats or said they were independent but leaned to
the Democratic Party. At the same time, 42% identified as Republicans
or as independents who leaned Republican. That six-point spread in
leaned party affiliation is the smallest Gallup has measured since 2005." Here's is Gallup's tracking chart:

These results are based on an average of five Gallup and USA Today/Gallup
polls conducted in the third quarter of 2009, encompassing interviews
with more than 5,000 U.S. adults. Gallup's Daily tracking survey --
established in 2008 -- has shown a similar narrowing of the party support gap in recent months.
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, Voter Enthusiasm, partisan identification, Republican Party
Posted Sep 29, 2009 at 10:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Gallup Survey reports that while the Democratic Party maintains a significant edge in public approval, the GOP has pick up a bit of seam in recent weeks: "The Republican Party's image -- quite tattered in the first few months
after the 2008 elections -- has seen some recent improvement. 40% of Americans now hold a favorable view of the Republicans, up
from 34% in May. The Republicans still trail the Democrats on this
popularity measure, as 51% of Americans now view the Democrats
favorably. With the Democrats' favorable rating dipping slightly since
last November, their advantage has narrowed." Here is Gallup's chart, tracking these numbers since January 2008:

Tagged: 2008 Election, 2009, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Voter Enthusiasm
Posted Sep 22, 2009 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new New USA Today/Gallup survey, the approval ratings of the two major
parties in Congress are at near record lows. The Democrats fare slightly better than the
Republicans, in line with the pattern in recent years. 36% of Americans approve of how the
Democrats in Congress are doing their job; 27% approve of the
Republicans. However, both parties' ratings are down significantly from
earlier this year, returning them to the record-low levels seen in 2007
and 2008. Here is Gallup's chart:

Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, US Congress, Republican Party, Voter Enthusiasm
Posted Sep 17, 2009 at 9:10 AM by Maurice Berger
CQ Politics, reporting on a new Gallup poll, writes: The public has gained confidence in the Democratic Party's ability
to protect the country from terrorism, but Republicans still lead with
roughly the same level of confidence they held a year after the Sept.
11, 2001 attacks . . . Republicans' standing in public confidence is 49 percent,
statistically the same as it was the first time the question was asked
on the one-year anniversary of the attacks, when it was 50 percent,
Gallup said. Democrats gained an edge for two years in the middle of
the decade when President George W. Bush's was at low ebb but have now
fallen back to 42 percent."
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, terrorism, Republican Party
Posted Sep 16, 2009 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger
Analyzing a just released national poll from ABC News/Washington Post, CQ Politics spots an ominous sign for the GOP: Americans perceive the party as obstructionist. CQ writes: "Republicans are viewed as obstructionists who are not making a good
faith effort to cooperate with Democrats in the health care debate,
according to [the survey]. The same poll found that half the respondents thought Democrats were
making an honest effort to cooperate with Republicans on health care.
Sixty-two percent of the respondents said the Republicans were not
negotiating in good faith. But if there is any political blow back from this, it's hard to find.
People were evenly divided on whether they would vote for (22 percent)
or against (23 percent) a congressional candidate who supports the
Democrats' health overhaul plan, with 54 percent saying it would make
no difference to them. Forty-nine percent said they think the two
parties are equally to blame for the tone of the debate."
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, healthcare, President Barack Obama, Republican Party, US Congress
Posted Sep 10, 2009 at 8:19 AM by Maurice Berger
The Washington Post wonders whether Colorado, a new and potent bellwether of national partisan support, is slipping away from the Democrats: "In 2008, Colorado became a symbol of the changing politics in a
region once firmly in Republican hands -- and also of the grass-roots
power and energy fueling Barack Obama's candidacy. Today, the state
embodies the uneasiness spreading throughout Democratic ranks as Obama
struggles with major challenges and the 2010 midterm elections
approach."
Colorado has been one of the Democratic Party's major success
stories. Between 1968 and 2004, Republican presidential candidates
carried the state in all but one election. Last year, Obama crushed John McCain in Colorado, part of a broader shift in the balance of political power in the Rocky Mountain West. Obama's victory and earlier Democratic wins here have transformed the
state. Early in the decade, Republicans controlled virtually everything
-- the governor's office, almost all other statewide offices, the
congressional delegation and both houses of the Colorado legislature.
Today, Democrats are in control of all of those. A year ago, Denver enthusiastically hosted the Democratic National
Convention, which culminated with Obama's acceptance speech before more
than 80,000 people at the Denver Broncos' football stadium. Legions of
volunteers, young and old, fanned out across the state throughout the
fall to rally the vote for Obama's campaign."
"Today, the energy that powered Obama to victory has begun to
dissipate. Some of his supporters remain on the sidelines; others are,
if not disillusioned, questioning what has happened to his presidency.
As they look toward 2010, Democrats are nervous. Gov. Bill Ritter,
appointed Sen. Michael F. Bennet and at least one Democratic member of
the House will probably face difficult election campaigns next year."
Tagged: 2009, 2010, bellwether, President Barack Obama, US Congress, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Colorado
Posted Sep 04, 2009 at 10:03 AM by Maurice Berger
In another possibly negative sign for the Obama administration, Gallup reports that "in August, an average of 45% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned to the Democratic Party, while 40% identified as Republicans or leaned to the Republican Party. This 5-point advantage represents a decided narrowing of the gap between the parties from the 17-point Democratic advantage in January." Here is Gallup's chart:

Tagged: 2009, partisan identification, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Posted Aug 21, 2009 at 9:09 AM by Maurice Berger
The American voter is much less in love now with the Democratic then in the period of Barack Obama's inauguration. According to a new Pew Research Survey: "Americans are in an increasingly sour mood about Washington. Barack
Obama’s approval ratings continue to inch downward and a growing
proportion of Americans (63%) think that the president and Republican
leaders are not working together to deal with important issues facing
the nation; in June, 50% said the two sides were not cooperating. While
more people continue to blame Republican leaders than blame Obama, the
percentage saying the president is at fault (17%) is higher now than in
June (12%) and much higher than in February (7%)
In the same
vein, the new poll finds favorable ratings of the Democratic Party have
declined sharply since spring. Just 49% now say they have a favorable
view of the Democratic Party. This compares with a 59% favorable rating
for the party as recently as April and 62% shortly before Obama took
office in January. Opinion of the Republican Party, which stands at
40%, has not changed all year."
Tagged: Democratic Party, Republican Party, presidential approval ratings, Voter Enthusiasm
Posted Aug 11, 2009 at 9:29 AM by Maurice Berger
A fascinating state-by-state study by Gallup suggests that American is growing increasingly Democratic: "An analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from the first six
months of 2009 finds Massachusetts to be the most Democratic state in
the nation, along with the District of Columbia. Utah and Wyoming are
the most Republican states, as they were in 2008. Only four states show
a sizeable Republican advantage in party identification, the same
number as in 2008. That compares to 29 states plus the District of
Columbia with sizeable Democratic advantages, also unchanged from last
year." Here's Gallup's listing of the Bluest and Reddest states in the union:

Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, partisan identification, Republican Party
Posted Jul 15, 2009 at 9:24 AM by Maurice Berger
While President Obama's national approval rathing hovers in the upper 50% range--nowhere near the danger zone, though it has fallen significantly since his inauguration in January--the country now appears more willing to blame the Democrats for problems that only months ago were as seen as caused by Republicans. Rasmussen reports that "voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats on eight out
of 10 key electoral issues, including, for the second straight month, the top
issue of the economy. They've also narrowed the gap on the remaining two issues,
the traditionally Democratic strong suits of health care and education. . . . [The] survey finds
that voters trust theGOP more on economic issues 46% to
41%, showing little change from the six-point lead the party held last month. This is just the second time in over two years of
polling the GOP has held the advantage on economic issues."
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, President Barack Obama, Republican Party
Posted Jul 13, 2009 at 9:56 AM by Maurice Berger
American voters by a siginificant margin affiliate with the Democratic over Republican parties. According to Gallup, "the Democratic Party continues to hold a solid advantage in party support over
the Republican Party, as 49% of Americans interviewed in the second quarter of
this year identified with or leaned to the Democratic Party, compared with 40%
who did so for the Republican Party." However, as Gallup notes, the nine-point advantage now held by the Democrats is smaller than the 13-point edge measured in the first quarter
of the year.
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Voter Enthusiasm
Posted Jul 01, 2009 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger
A Gallup poll reveals that when it comes to perceptions about the economy and the current economic crisis, sharp partisan differences prevail: "Republicans and Democrats view economic issues facing the country
today from substantially different perspectives. Republicans are most
likely to be worried about the increasing federal deficit, increasing
federal income taxes, and problems state governments have in funding
their budgets, while Democrats are most worried about the rising
unemployment rate, Americans without health care insurance, and the
increasing cost of health care. These results underscore the political tensions that have arisen as the
Obama administration and Congress wrestle with how to fix the country's
economic problems, while at the same time dealing with the longer-term
impact of those efforts. Taken as a whole, Republicans are more
concerned than Democrats about the impact of increased federal and
state spending, and government regulation of business, while Democrats
are more concerned about the societal problems that the increased
spending and regulation are designed to address."
Here's a sampling of the top priorities by party affiliation:

Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, economy, economic crisis, Republican Party, partisan identification
Posted Jun 10, 2009 at 9:50 AM by Maurice Berger
The brilliant political analyst Charlie Cook--taking an early look at the electoral landscape for the 2010 congressional midterm election--predicts a split decision, "with
Republicans picking up a few House seats but losing a Senate seat or
two. The difference is that Democrats have the larger number of
vulnerable House districts, while Senate Republicans have more seats
that are in serious jeopardy."
Cook on the House: "Having gained 54 House seats over the past two elections, Democrats now
represent 49 districts that GOP presidential nominee John McCain won
last year. By comparison, Republicans represent 34 districts that Obama
won. Simple arithmetic indicates that in the absence of overwhelming
hostility toward the Republican Party, the GOP ought to gain a few,
maybe even a dozen or so, House seats."
Cook on the Senate: "On the Senate side, the math is a bit different and is not driven
directly by the results of the past two elections. In 2010, Republicans
will be defending 19 seats, only one more than Democrats will.
Originally, Republicans would have had 20 seats to defend versus 15 for
the Democrats, but that changed with Joe Biden's election to the vice
presidency and Hillary Rodham Clinton's selection as secretary of
State. Two Democratic seats that would not have been up again until
2014 and 2012, respectively, will be in 2010. Add in Arlen Specter's
party switch, and next year's lineup brings almost complete parity in
the parties' exposure."
For more of Cook's fascinating analysis click here.
Tagged: 2010, Democratic Party, Republican Party, US Senate RACE CHART, US House RACE CHART, President Barack Obama, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania
Posted Jun 08, 2009 at 10:25 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Democracy Corps survey, the Republican Party continues to do poorly with American voters: "The Republican Party sports a net favorability rating of -15 points (30
percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable). By comparison, the
Democratic Party enjoys a relatively strong +8 rating (46 percent
favorable, 38 percent unfavorable). The image gap between the two
parties also remains near its all-time high. And in a test of the 2010
congressional vote (using the incumbents’ names), Democrats currently
hold a 10-point advantage, a slight increase from their 2008 margin"
The Democratric-leaning Democracy Corps also suggests that former VP Dick Cheney's recent visability may be a factor in the GOP downturn: "With a net favorability of -20 (31 percent favorable, 51 percent
unfavorable), the former vice president is at his lowest level of
popularity since Democracy Corps first measured it in 1999. Cheney is a
deeply divisive figure, popular only with the conservative base of the
Republican Party but unpopular with everyone else, including
independents (among whom he has net -26 favorability rating) and
moderate Republicans. In fact, President Obama (+5) is more popular
with moderate Republicans than Cheney (-9)."
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, President Barack Obama, Republican Party, Voter Enthusiasm
Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 10:49 AM by Maurice Berger
Consistent with early surveys, a Gallup Poll confirms that US military veterans trend Republican in their political orientation: "This Republican skew is at least minimally evident across all age groups,
ranging from a 15-point difference in the percentage Republican between veterans
and nonveterans in the 25-29 age group, to a 2-point difference in the 85+
group. . . For the entire adult population, 34% of veterans and those currently on
active military service are Republican, compared to 26% of those who are not
veterans, while 29% of veterans identify themselves as Democrats, compared to
38% of those who are not veterans. (Thirty-three percent of veterans are
independents, compared to 29% of nonveterans.) . . . The current analysis shows that regardless of the underlying patterns of
political identification that pertain at each age group, veterans (or those
currently in the military) of all ages are more Republican and less Democratic
than those who are not veterans."
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, Republican Party, partisan identification, veterans
Posted May 28, 2009 at 10:19 AM by Maurice Berger
Parhaps as a testament to President Obama's high level of popularity over the past month--and the public's increasingly negative view of the GOP--Democrats have moved ahead slightly on what had been a tied generic congressional ballot: "Democratic Congressional candidates have moved further ahead
of Republicans this week in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional
Ballot." The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found
that "41% would vote for their district’s Democratic congressional candidate
while 38% would choose the Republican. Support for Democrats is up one point from last week, while support for the GOP has dropped a point. The
latest results mark the lowest level of support for the GOP since April 12,
while they mark the highest level of support for the Democrats since the end of
March."
Tagged: 2009, 2010, Democratic Party, Republican Party, US House RACE CHART, US Senate RACE CHART
Posted May 21, 2009 at 9:59 AM by Maurice Berger
How much are Americans willing to sacrifice to provide health insurance for all. Not all that much if they are Republicans or independents, according to a new Rasmussen Reports survey: Just "32% of American adults say they’d be willing to pay higher taxes so that health insurance be provided for all Americans. . . . 54% say they’re not willing to pay
more in taxes. Most Democrats (54%) are willing to pay higher taxes to expand health care coverage. Most Republicans (77%) are not. As for those not affiliated
with either major party, 29% are okay with the higher tax bill and 60%
are not."
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, Independent Voters, Republican Party
Posted Apr 16, 2009 at 10:09 AM by Maurice Berger
The Hill argues that the razor-thin closeness of the special election in NY-20--a race that is bound to end close given the breakdown of the vote count--gives neither party an advantage in the national preception of the health of the Democratic and Republican brand: "Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele made the contest a central
focus of his first two months as head of the GOP, and NRCC chairman Pete
Sessions (R-Texas) and Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) have each invested
their own reputations on Tedisco's behalf. Without a clear win, some could lose
confidence in all three leaders. Tedisco also publicly distanced himself
from the national party and said he would run a local campaign without the
NRCC's message, giving pundits the opportunity to recall that having an "R"
after one's name, at least in the Northeast, is still political
suicide."
The Hill continues: "Democrats spent less on Murphy's behalf, but by allowing both
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden to get involved in the race, they ensured any
result would be seen as a national referendum on the early days of the
administration, when many bold economic policies dominated headlines. A loss for
Murphy would certainly be viewed as a reproach of the president. With
much risked and with such a close election, either Scott Murphy or Jim Tedisco
will be headed to Congress. But both parties failed in their quest; Democrats
did not win a sweeping victory for Obama's agenda, while Republicans -- most
notably Steele -- could not prove the party is on an early course for a
comeback."
Tagged: 2009, US House RACE CHART, New York, Democratic Party, Republican Party, President Barack Obama
Posted Apr 13, 2009 at 10:21 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Rasmussen's Consumer Confidence Index, "which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, gained another three points on Sunday following a five point gain on Saturday. At 77.1, the Index has reached its highest level since last September 20.Consumer confidence is up 9 points from a week ago, 19 points from a month ago, and is even up a point-and-a-half from a year ago. which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, gained another three points on Sunday following a five point gain on Saturday. At 77.1, the Index has reached its highest level since last September 20. Consumer confidence is up 9 points from a week ago, 19 points from a month ago, and is even up a point-and-a-half from a year ago."
Tagged: 2009, Democratic Party, President Barack Obama, economic crisis, economy, Republican Party
Posted Apr 09, 2009 at 9:55 AM by Maurice Berger
In what may be a bit of a red flag for the Obama administration, a new poll of registered voters indicates that they are evening divided in terms of the party they would vote for if congressional elections were held today: "Republicans have pulled within one point of Democrats in the
latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that
40% would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while 39% would choose
the Republican. Support for Democratic congressional candidates fell two points
this week, while support for GOP candidates gained one point to tie its highest
level this year so far. Three weeks ago, Republicans took a two-point lead over
Democrats, their first in several years, but that quickly reversed the following week. Democrats began the year holding a six- or seven-point lead
over the GOP for the first several weeks of 2009. Recently, the gap has been
smaller. Prior to the current update, Democrats have held a three-or-four point
advantage for three of the prior four weeks."
Tagged: 2010, 2009, Democratic Party, Republican Party, President Barack Obama, US House RACE CHART, US Senate RACE CHART
Posted Apr 07, 2009 at 9:44 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval rating--when matched to voters' party affiliation, according to a new Pew Research Survey--suggest as wide partisan gap: "For all of his hopes about bipartisanship, Barack Obama has the most
polarized early job approval ratings of any president in the past four
decades. The 61-point partisan gap in opinions about Obama's job
performance is the result of a combination of high Democratic ratings
for the president -- 88% job approval among Democrats -- and relatively
low approval ratings among Republicans (27%). By comparison, there was a somewhat smaller 51-point partisan gap in
views of George W. Bush's job performance in April 2001, a few months
into his first term. At that time, Republican enthusiasm for Bush was
comparable to how Democrats feel about Obama today, but there was
substantially less criticism from members of the opposition party.
Among Democrats, 36% approved of Bush's job performance in April 2001;
that compares with a 27% job approval rating for Obama among
Republicans today." The longterm implications of this are unclear, PollTrack believes, because the poll does not report the leanings of the all-important independent and unaffiliated voters.
Tagged: 2010, 2009, Election 2012, President Barack Obama, Democratic Party, public opinion polls, Republican Party
Posted Apr 01, 2009 at 9:58 AM by Maurice Berger
With the NY-20 special election ending in a virtual tie--with Democrat Scott Murphy and Republican Jim Tedisco at 50% each--it's hard to ascribe a trend to the results. Indeed, as PollTrack has observed before, the traditionally low turnout in special elections almost guarantees that the results will be ambiguous at best. But there are two take aways from yesterday's content: [1] Even after the national GOP poured a good deal of time and money into the local contest, in a district with a decided Republican advatage in registration, its candudate still lost. There cannot be joy in the offices of the RNC this morning. [2] The extreme closeness of the race--in a swing district where Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand nevertheless won by a large margin last November--suggests that the district, and by a slight stretch of the imagination, the nation remains more divided than many pundits realize.
Tagged: 2009, 2010, President Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Republican Party, New York, US House RACE CHART
Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 1:30 PM by Maurice Berger
The esteemed polytical anaylast Charlie Cook--one of the very best in the business--cautions political observers to be cautious about the results of today special election in New York's 20th Congressional District to fill the seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand: “Assuming that the margin in this upstate contest to fill the seat of
newly-appointed Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is three or four
points or less, my advice is to respond ‘that’s nice,’ then yawn, and
walk away… What is more important is if there is a uniform direction to
several odd-year elections. If, for example, Republicans were to win
tonight and knock off Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey in November, and
pick up the open governor seat in Virginia, then it is fair to say that
they will have exorcised the demons of 2006 and 2008 . . . If
Democrats hold NY-20 as well as New Jersey and Virginia, they can enter
2010 knowing that even if the wind isn’t at their backs, there also
isn’t a headwind.” PollTrack agrees with Cook. Is is doubtful that the outcome of NY-20 will serve as a bellwether. Rather it could hint at an impending problem for one of the national parties, at best.
Tagged: Democratic Party, President Barack Obama, Republican Party, US House RACE CHART, US Governor RACE CHART, New York, Virginia, New Jersey
Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 10:06 AM by Maurice Berger
Voting has begun in the special election in New York's 20th congressional district to fill the seat vacated by now US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. Will the outcome have great national significance? Will it be seen by the media as an early referendum on the new Obama administration? PollTrack notes that while the central issues of the campaign--the state of the economy and the loss of jobs in the district--dominated the debate between Democrat Scott Murphy and Republican Jim Tedisco, it's hard to say that the results this evening will shed light on the state of the national electorate.
Special elections are generally decided by a relatively small sector of registered voters. Often the part faithful have an advantage. And in New York's 20th, the Republicans have a decided edge: There are more than 477,000 registered
voters in the district, with Republicans enjoying a 70,000 voter
registration advantage over Democrats. Independents make up a quarter
of the voting population. Even with a highly competitive election in 2008--and Obama enjoying enough support in this traditionally Republican district to win it with 51% of the vote--its VERY popular Democratic congresswoman, Kirsten Gillibrand, won reelection by 80,000 votes. A solid majority, yes. But achieved in a highly competitive environment, favorable to Democrats with a very popular candidate at the head of the ticket.
Today's outcome will come down to turnout. As CQ's Politics reports, if the election is tight, as most polls suggest, the election may not be decided easily: "Turnout is expected to be low, given
that it is a special election at an unusual time and there are no
national races on the ballot. If the vote is close, it
could take weeks to sort out a winner, said John Conklin, director of
public information at the New York Board of Elections. “If
the result is significant, meaning [the victor] won by 20,000 or 30,000
votes I don’t think the House will wait for our certification,” he
said. However, if the result is determined by a few
thousand votes or less, “It will be a while because the Justice
Department requires us to wait until at least April 13 for the military
and overseas ballots” to arrive and be included in the official count."
Close or otherwise, the result may well seem like a national referedum, not because it validates or invalidates specfic policies of the Obama adminstration but because of the increasingly intense involvement of the national parties and even the president himself (who taped a TV commercial for Scott Murphy last week). In other words, no matter who wins, the well reported and debated involvement of such national figures as Obama and the new GOP chairman, Michael Steele, will undoubtedly spur the media and political anaylsts to spin the election's results as a kind of gauge of national sentiment, especially in a classic swing district such as NY-20, where Republicans have dominated for decades but where Democratics have made solid inroads over the past two cylces.
Tagged: 2009, US House RACE CHART, President Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Republican Party, New York
Posted Mar 30, 2009 at 10:03 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new analysis, in which the 2008 presidential election
was re-run using a district-based system of awarding electoral
votes, used only in two states (ME and NE), instead of the winner-take-all Barack Obama still would have defeated John McCain, though the Electoral College tally would have been closer than the actual 365-173 margin of victory.
The CQ Politics analysis concludes that
Obama would have beaten McCain 301-237 "using a district-based system,
under which a candidate receives two electoral votes for winning a
state and one electoral vote for every congressional district he or she
wins. Only Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes in this fashion. The
analysis found that Obama won 242 districts and McCain won 193
districts. Obama also posted another 59 electoral votes by carrying 28
states and the District of Columbia, which is entitled to three
electoral votes under the 23rd Amendment. McCain would have received
another 44 electoral votes as a result of winning 22 states." PollTrack observes that such results suggest the country remains more politically divided than the initial 2008 results suggest, divisions that now appear to be playing out in the polling that gauges political sentiment in the upcoming congressional elections of 2010. Such surveys now indicate an electorate evenly divided between support for Democrtic and Republican congressional candidates.
Tagged: 2008 Election, 2010, President Barack Obama, US Congress, John McCain, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Posted Mar 27, 2009 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Democracy Corps surveys suggests storms clouds ahead for Republicans--the increasing disaffection of young Americans from the party and its ideology: the "post-election survey of
youth shows the Republican Party growing more and more irrelevant to America’s
young people. In marked contrast, young people’s support for the President has
expanded beyond the 66 percent support they gave him last November. However,
progressives have work to do among these voters—and would be voters—as well, as
this survey signals insufficient enthusiasm for participating in the 2010
elections.
Democracy Corps continues: "In a recent interview with Rachel Maddow, John McCain’s daughter Meghan
McCain warned her party that it was, “on the precipice of becoming irrelevant to
young people.” This conclusion comes in the wake of a 66 to 32 percent drubbing
by young people in the 2008 elections. Our survey of young people taken three
months after the election underscores the alienation of Republicans from the
millennial generational. By a 59 to 14 percent margin, young people prefer the
Democrats when it comes to “paying attention to issues that affect younger
people,” a six point gain since 2007."
Tagged: 2010, 2009, 2008 Election, Democratic Party, Republican Party, Voter Enthusiasm
Posted Mar 18, 2009 at 9:11 AM by Maurice Berger
In a bit of bright news for the Obama administrations and congressional Democrats, the party has "managed to move slightly further ahead this
week. . . . The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found
that 42% of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic
candidate while 38% said they would choose the Republican. In recent weeks, the Democratic advantage on
the Generic Ballot has ranged from one-to-four points. Democrats enjoy a larger advantage when it comes to partisan
identification among the electorate."
Tagged: 2010, US Congress, US House RACE CHART, US Senate RACE CHART, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Posted Mar 10, 2009 at 10:06 AM by Maurice Berger
Just about half of the nation's voters--49%--now believe politics in Washington
will be more partisan over the next year. This number represents a 9% gain since early February and a 15% jump since early January: The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just "32% expect more cooperation between the two sides over the coming year.
That’s down from 48% in January."
Rasmussen also reports a much smaller shift in perceptions of President Obama's governing style. 39% believe he is "governing on a
bipartisan basis, down from 42% a month ago. The number who believe he
is governing as a partisan Democrat has gone up four points to 43%. But more voters think that members of Congress from both
political parties are more partisan than Obama. 50% of
voters say congressional Republicans are acting in a partisan manner. 60% say that congressional Democrats are behaving as
partisans."
Tagged: partisan identification, President Barack Obama, US Congress, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Posted Mar 06, 2009 at 9:28 AM by Maurice Berger
In what may suggest a looming problem for the Obama administration in the 2010 congressional elections, a new Rasmussen survey reports that "the race between Republicans and Democrats has once again
tightened up in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. For the
third time in the last four weeks, Republicans have pulled to within two points
of the Democrats. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found
that 41% of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic
candidate while 39% said they would choose the Republican. While support for the Democrats has not changed since, support for the GOP has increased two points."
Tagged: 2010, US Congress, US Senate RACE CHART, Democratic Party, President Barack Obama, Republican Party
Posted Feb 27, 2009 at 9:04 AM by Maurice Berger
White President Obama continues to enjoy high approval on his handling of the economy and other problems facing the nation, the Republicans fare very poorly. A new ABC News/Washington Post Poll Reports that the Democratic Party leads the Republicans by 56-30 percent in trust to
handle the country's main problems. "That has slightly improved from
56-23 percent in December, as congressional Republicans found a unified
voice in opposition to the stimulus. But the December number was the
Republicans' worst in ABC/Post polls since 1982; they still have far to
climb."Additionally, the Democrats hold the edge in partisan affiliation: 36% in the poll identified themselves
as Democrats, just 24% as Republicans. On average in 2003, by
contrast, the parties were at parity, 31 percent apiece."
Tagged: 2010, partisan identification, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Posted Feb 13, 2009 at 9:50 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Rasmussen survey suggests possible political storm clouds for Democrats on the question of how well they can manage the economy: "Democrats are still trusted more than Republicans to handle
the economy by a 44% to 39% margin, but their advantage on the issue has been
slipping steadily since November; 17% are not sure which party they trust more to handle the
economy. In the first poll conducted after Barack Obama was elected
president, the Democrats held a 15-point lead over the GOP on economic issues.
In December, their lead dropped to 12 points. In January, prior to Obama’s
inauguration, Democrats held a nine-point lead on the issue."
Tagged: Democratic Party, economy, economic crisis, Republican Party, President Barack Obama, US Congress
Posted Feb 11, 2009 at 10:36 AM by Maurice Berger
In an ominous sign for the Democrats, public displeasure with Congress seems to be translating into much decreased support for Democratic legislators. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys found
that in the generic congressional balllot, the Democrats’ lead is down to just one percentage point. Forty percent
(40%) of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate
while 39% said they would choose the Republican. "This marks the lowest level of support for the Democrats in
tracking history," Rasmussen reports, "and is the closest the two parties have been on the generic
ballot."
Tagged: Democratic Party, Republican Party, US Congress, 2010, US Senate RACE CHART
Posted Feb 04, 2009 at 10:07 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup, an average of 36% of Americans identified themselves as Democrats and 28% as
Republicans in 2008. That eight-point advantage is the largest for the
Democratic Party since Gallup began regularly conducting its polls by telephone
in 1988. Gallup notes: "The year-by-year trend shows that Democrats have gained ground against
Republicans in each of the last five years, going from a deficit of two points
in 2003 to the most recent eight-point advantage. Additionally, the 36% of Americans who identified as Democrats last year
matches the high point in Democratic identification since 1988, when it was also
36%. But since fewer Americans identified as Republicans last year (28%) than in
1988 (31%), the Democratic advantage was larger in 2008."
Tagged: Democratic Party, partisan identification, 2008 Election
Posted Feb 03, 2009 at 4:25 PM by Maurice Berger
While a plurality of voters see Barack Obama's governing style as bipartisan, they are not so sure about the US Congress: "42% of U.S. voters say President Obama is governing on a bipartisan basis while 39% say he is
governing as a partisan Democrat . . . [Yet] most voters believe congressmen from both major political parties are
acting in a far more partisan manner than the president. 58% say congressional Democrats are
governing in a partisan fashion, and 52% say the same about Republicans in
Congress. Just 22% say members of both parties are acting on a bipartisan basis. Overall, 40% expect politics in Washington to become more
partisan over the next year while 40% expect it to become more cooperative.>
Tagged: President Barack Obama, US Congress, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Posted Jan 30, 2009 at 9:29 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by the Gallup organization reports a national electoral map that has grown markedly Democratic over the past few years: "An analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from 2008 finds Rhode
Island, Massachusetts, and Hawaii to be the most Democratic states in
the nation, along with the District of Columbia. Utah and Wyoming are
the most Republican states . . . What is immediately clear from the map is that residents of the
United States were very Democratic in their political orientation last
year. . . All told, 29 states and the District of Columbia had Democratic
party affiliation advantages of 10 points or greater last year. This
includes all of the states in the Northeast, and all but Indiana in the
Great Lakes region. There are even several Southern states in this
grouping, including Arkansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky. An additional six states had Democratic advantages ranging between 5 and 9 points. In contrast, only five states had solid or leaning Republican
orientations in 2008, with Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Alaska in the
former group, and Nebraska in the latter."
Tagged: Democratic Party, Republican Party, partisan identification, trend
Posted Jan 05, 2009 at 11:44 AM by Maurice Berger
Perhaps as a testament to voters' high regard for President-Elect Obama, Rasmussen reports that the number of Americans who consider themselves to be
Democrats rose again in December to 41.6%: "That’s up two-tenths of a point
since November and the third straight monthly increase in the number of
Democrats. Only once since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on
a monthly basis in 2002 has the number of Democrats been higher. In May, as the
Obama-Clinton primary battle neared its conclusion, 41.7% of Americans said they
were Democrats. At the same time, the number of Republicans declined a full
percentage point from 33.8% in November to 32.8% in December."
Tagged: Democratic Party, Republican Party, Voter Enthusiasm
Posted Jan 05, 2009 at 8:53 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup poll, liberal Democrats remain confident in president-elect Obama: support for Obama among liberal
Democrats is holding steady at 93% "despite news reports that his core
supporters are disappointed with some of his cabinet appointments and
other decisions. Meanwhile, in recent weeks, Obama's ratings have
improved among conservative Republicans, up from 23% to 29% . . . Now, a slim majority of moderate and liberal Republicans, 51%, say they
are confident Obama will be a good president, up from 44% in November.
Conservative Republicans remain largely skeptical of Obama's abilities,
but in recent weeks his stock has risen slightly among this group, from
23% to 29%."
Tagged: PRESIDENT-ELECT Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Posted Dec 19, 2008 at 11:19 AM by Maurice Berger
In a sign that the Republicans may have an opening in the Blogojevich scandal (and that Obama may have a looming PR problem), a new Rasmussen survey reports that a "number of voters are unsure which political party they can
trust to deal with government ethics and corruption has climbed to its
highest level since June." The poll found that 39% do not know which party to trust. Trust in both the Democratic and Republican Parties "is also
at the lowest levels since June. Now, 36% trust the Democrats more,
while 26% trust Republicans more. In November, voters trusted Democrats
more when it came to corruption by a 38% to 31% margin."
Tagged: Democratic Party, 2010
Posted Dec 04, 2008 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger
According to CQ Politics, while black voters in California overwhelmingly
supported Democrat Barack Obama for president, their views on
homosexuality were far more closely allied with Republicans: "When Californians voted for Proposition 8, providing for a state-wide ban on
same sex marriage, exit polls showed that 7 out of 10 black voters supported the measure. Gallup has
followed this up with an analysis of its polling data from May 2006, May 2007 and May 2008 showing
that on this issue, black Democrats are as conservative as Republicans. Thirty-one percent of black Democrats said that homosexual relations are
morally acceptable compared to 61 percent of non-black Democrats and 55 percent
of Democrats overall. That number put them more in line with Republicans among
whom only 30 percent found such relations morally acceptable." African-American Democrats were also closer to Republicans than non-black Democrats on a
number of other so-called moral issues, including stem cell research and sex outside of marriage but does NOT carry over into abortion and the death penalty, issues on which black voters are far more liberal than most Republicans.
Tagged: Democratic Party, Republican Party, African-American voters, moral issues, homosexuality
Posted Nov 20, 2008 at 9:17 AM by Maurice Berger
An analysis by the Pew Research Center suggests that there is a significant generational shift in voting patterns: young voters have moved decidedly into the Democratic camp: "In the last three general elections - 2004, 2006, and 2008 --
young voters have given the Democratic Party a majority of their votes, and for
all three cycles they have been the party's most supportive age group. This
year, 66% of those under age 30 voted for Barack Obama making the disparity
between young voters and other age groups larger than in any presidential
election since exit polling began in 1972. This pattern of votes, along with other evidence about the
political leanings of young voters, suggests that a significant generational
shift in political allegiance is occurring. This pattern has been building for
several years, and is underscored among voters this year. Among voters ages
18-29, a 19-point gap now separates Democratic party affiliation (45%) and
Republican affiliation (26%). In 2000, party affiliation was split nearly evenly
among the young." If this patterns hold, it will present a real challenge to Republicans, since a coalition of African-American, Hispanic, Jewish, and young voters constituted a significant majority for Obama in the 2008 cycle.
Tagged: Democratic Party, Republican Party, Younger Voters
Posted Nov 11, 2008 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger
In terms of the percentage of eligible voters who actually turned out in 2008, the numbers are not much different from 2004. The issue in this election was not an increase in the overall numbers of voters, but a decrease in Republican participation and a significant jump in Democratic voter enthusiasm and participation. Obama's victory was due in large part to "a substantial electoral
shift toward the Democratic Party and by winning a number of key groups in the
middle of the electorate," according to a Pew Research Center analysis of exit polls. As recently as 2004, voters were evenly divided among
Republicans and Democrats. In this election, however, 39 percent identify themselves as
Democrats compared to 32 percent for the Republicans. (In this regard, Rasmussen came closest of any pollster to predicting the actual "party weighting" of the electorate in 2008.) This balance was more skewed
than in either of the last two Democratic presidential victories when Bill
Clinton ran in 1992 and 1996. The biggest of the gains for the Democratic ticket among demographic groups
since 2004--groups that would prove instrumental in Obama's decisive victory--were Hispanics (+13%), 18 to 29 year olds (+12%), urban
voters (+9%), voters making over $100,000 a year (+8%) and African Americans (+7%). The Pew study also reports that Obama did better with voters in the ideological center than most Democrats: "While moderates have favored the Democratic candidate in each of
the past five elections, Barack Obama gained the support of more voters in the
ideological "middle" than did either John Kerry or Al Gore before him. He won at
least half the votes of independents (52% vs. 49% for Kerry), suburban voters
(50% vs. 47% for Kerry), Catholics (54% vs. 47% for Kerry), and other key swing
groups in the electorate."
Tagged: 2004 Election, PRESIDENT-ELECT Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Posted Oct 14, 2008 at 8:34 AM by Maurice Berger
Last night, a Gallup study reported a striking enthusiasm gap in the electorate: "Only 51% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about
voting than in previous years, compared to 71% of Democrats, marking a shift
from October 2004, when enthusiasm was about the same for both partisan
groups." Voter enthusiasm is an important barometer for assessing the likelihood of turnout on Election Day.
Tagged: Voter Enthusiasm, Democratic Party, Republican Party
Posted Sep 23, 2008 at 11:56 AM by Maurice Berger
An Associated Press-Yahoo News survey released today reports that Barack Obama's support from former backers of Hillary Clinton "is stuck smack where it was in June . . . a
stunning lack of progress that is weakening him with fellow Democrats in the
close presidential race." The poll indicates that "among adults who backed his
rival during their bitter primary campaign, 58 percent now support Obama. That
is the same percentage who said so in June, when Clinton ended her bid and urged
her backers to line up behind the Democratic senator from Illinois."
Tagged: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Democratic Party
Posted Aug 21, 2008 at 10:28 AM by Maurice Berger
A new NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll suggests that Hillary Clinton's supporters are sharply divided in their support for Barack Obama. While the poll directors conclude that “Whatever momentum that Obama took into the summer, he really appears to have lost it,” they attribute this erosion to the candidate's failure to unify his party, in contrast to McCain.
More troubling for Obama, perhaps, are the numbers concerning voters who supported Clinton in the primaries and caucuses: according to the survey, 52% now say
they will vote for Obama, 21% are backing McCain, and 27% percent are undecided or want to vote for someone
else. As the NBC/WSJ points out, voters who supported Clinton in the primaries — but do not now back Obama--"tend to view McCain in a better light than Obama and
have more confidence in McCain’s ability to be commander-in-chief."
Though the NBC/WSJ numbers in contrast to other recent polls suggest a somewhat higher percentage of Clinton voters who refuse to support Obama, the implications for him in all of these surveys are dire. Thus, a major question looms about party unity: will the Democratic National Convention be enough--with speeches from both Clintons and a night devoted to women's issues--or must the Obama campaign go one step further and nominate Hillary Clinton for Vice President?
Tagged: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, public opinion polls, Democratic Party
Posted Aug 10, 2008 at 4:58 PM by Maurice Berger
The one question I have heard most often over the past month from voters is this: why isn't Obama walking way with this election? Why are the candidates virtually tied at this point? Indeed, as our own statistical indicators suggest (79% of voters believing that the nation is on the wrong track, President Bush's record low approval ratings, major storm clouds over the economy), this election should be an easy win for the Democrats. Yet, the candidates remain within a few points of each other nationally. And neither has broken the 50% mark. Over the next few weeks, I will examine the reasons for this competitiveness, tracking voter sentiment at close range, but also with an eye towards future trends.
Tagged: Barack Obama, John McCain, Democratic Party