Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Democrat Leads In VA Governor's Race

Posted Sep 17, 2013 at 9:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Purple Strategies in Virginia reports that Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli by +5% in the race for governor, 43% to 38%. The poll notes, however: "With many voters undecided -- and two disliked candidates -- this race is unpredictable."

GOP Gets Most Of The Blame For Gridlock

Posted Jul 16, 2013 at 8:42 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Quinnipiac, 51% of Americans say that the GOP is responsible for gridlock in Washington, D.C. Only 35% percent believe that it is President Obama who "lacks the skills to convince leaders of Congress to work together."

NY Mayoralty: All Tied Up In Democratic Primary

Posted Jul 01, 2013 at 9:47 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac University in New York City reports that Christine Quinn barely leads the Democratic mayoral primary race with 19%, followed by Anthony Weiner at 17% and William Thompson at 16%.

MA US Senate: Final Poll Shows Democrat Comfortably Ahead

Posted Jun 25, 2013 at 8:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A final Suffolk poll in today's special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusettes reports that Democrat Rep. Edward Markey maintains a comfortable lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez, 52% to 42%. The results are in sync with other polls posted by PollTrack over the past week.

MA US Senate: Markey Ahead

Posted Jun 24, 2013 at 8:24 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Western New England University reports that Democratic Rep. Ed Markey leads Republican Gabriel Gomez by +8% in tomorrow's special U.S. Senate election, 49% to 41%, with 9% undecided. With other polls showing Markey well ahead and at or near the 50% mark, it appears likely that he will win.

NJ Gov: Christie Way Ahead

Posted Jun 19, 2013 at 7:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Stockton College in New Jersey reports that GOP Gov. Chris Christie is way ahead of Democratic challenger Barbara Buono in his race for re-election, 64% to 24%.

MA US Senate: Democrat Solidly Ahead

Posted Jun 18, 2013 at 7:12 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Boston Globe reports that Democratic Rep. Edward Markey holds a significant lead over GOP rival Gabriel Gomez, 54% to 41%, in the final week of the special U.S. Senate election.

MA US Senate: Democrat Ahead

Posted Jun 17, 2013 at 12:42 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Harper Polling in Massachusetts reports that Democratic Rep. Ed Markey holds a significant 12% lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez, 49% to 37%.

NJ US Senate: Booker Crushs His Democratic Opponents

Posted Jun 14, 2013 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Monmouth in New Jersey reports that Cory Booker holds a commanding lead among potential voters in the August Democratic primary for US Senate. Booker crushes his opponents at 63%, compared to 10% for Rush Holt, 8% for Frank Pallone, and 6% for Sheila Oliver.

MA US Senate: Democrat In The Lead

Posted Jun 10, 2013 at 9:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Massachusetts reports that Democrat Rep. Ed Markey leads Republican Gabriel Gomez by 8% in the special U.S. Senate race, 47% to 39%. A University of Massachusett poll reports an 11% lead for Markey, pool51% to 40%.

Democrat Ahead In In VA Governor's Race

Posted Jun 04, 2013 at 9:51 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Public Policy Polling in Virginia reports that Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the race for goverrnor, 42% to 37%.

New York Mayor's Race: Quinn Leads, But Weiner A Strong Second

Posted May 29, 2013 at 9:10 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Marist  in New York City reports that  Christine Quinn leads the Democratic mayoral race with 24%, followed by Anthony Weiner at 19%, Bill de Blasio at 12%, Bill Thomson at 11% and John Liu at 8%.

Are Democrats Too Complacent In Massachusetts?

Posted May 20, 2013 at 4:04 PM by Maurice Berger

Stuart Rothenberg notes that democratic complacency in the 2013 special election in Massachusetts to fill the US Senate seat vacated by John Kerry could backfire: "The special election . . . took an interesting turn this week, when former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez drew more than 50 percent of the vote to win the GOP nomination. . . . The total GOP primary vote was less than what Lynch received in the Democratic race, and the Bay State’s Democratic bent is undeniable. But Gomez has an interesting story, and at least the GOP didn’t nominate an old white guy who had served in the Massachusetts Legislature. . . Democrats won’t allow themselves to be surprised the way they were when Scott P. Brown beat Martha Coakley in the last Senate special election, in early 2010, and the national party’s image can’t do anything but hurt Gomez’s already uphill chances. But there is no reason to rush to judgment on this race, at least for a couple of weeks, and it’s worth watching to see how it unfolds. Obviously, Markey begins as the clear favorite.

Republican Leads In VA Governor's Race

Posted May 09, 2013 at 8:16 AM by Maurice Berger

For decades, the Virginia gubernatorial election has been a bellwether of sorts: the candidate from the opposing party of the president of the United States wins. Will 2013 be an exception. Possibly not. According to a new poll from the Washington Post, Republican Ken Cuccinelli holds an early lead over Democrat Terry McAuliffe in their race for governor, 46% to 41% among all voters and 51% to 41% among those voters most likely to cast a ballot.

MA US Senate Race: Headed For Upset?

Posted May 08, 2013 at 7:54 AM by Maurice Berger

Is the special election to fill the US Senate seat vacated by John Kerry in Massachusetts head for an upset, much like the race to fill the seat of the late-Edward Kennedy? Possibly. A new survey by  Public Policy Polling reports that the race is a surprisingly close , with Democrat Rep. Ed Markey leading Republican Gabriel Gomez by just +4%--44% to 40%.

Christie Crushes Democratic Challenger

Posted Apr 01, 2013 at 8:06 AM by Maurice Berger

The idea of the inevitability of NJ GOP governor Chris Christie's reelection is underscored by a new Harper Polling survey. In the poll, Christie crushes his Democratic challenger Barbara Buono, 58% to 28%.

VA Gubernatorial Race A Tie

Posted Mar 28, 2013 at 8:16 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in Virginia reports that Republican Ken Cuccinelli just edges Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the race for governor, 40% to 38%. Will the state live up to its longstanding record of electing governors from a party different from the US president? Stay tuned. 

Who Is Ahead In New York Mayoralty Race?

Posted Feb 28, 2013 at 8:42 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack will be covering this year's race to New York City mayor. Due to term limits, the present mayor--independent, Michael Bloomberg--will no be running for reelection. Though early in the race, a new poll by Quinnipiac University suggests that in the Democratic primary in a city that is vastly Democratic in voter registration, New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn is very close to the 40% threshold needed to avoid a runoff election. The survey reports that Quinn leads the Democratic primary with 37%, more than three other candidates combined.

Markey Ahead In MA Democratic Senate Primary

Posted Feb 19, 2013 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Which Democrat is in the strongest position to take the Democratic nomination in the special election to fill the US Senate seat in Massachusetts just vacated by John Kerry?  A new poll by  WBUR reports that Rep. Ed Markey leads Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) among likely Democratic U.S. Senate primary voters, 38% to 31% with 4% preferring another candidate. 26% remain undecided.

Americans Negative on GOP

Posted Jan 22, 2013 at 9:00 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by NBC News/Wall Street Journal, 49% of Americans hold a negative view of the Republican Party while 26% have a positive view. Views of the Democratic Party remain net positive rating: 44% hold a favorable view of the party and 38% hold an unfavorable one.

Democrats Retake Lead In Party Affiliation

Posted Jan 11, 2013 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Gallup, "an average of 47% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they were independents who leaned Democratic in 2012, compared with 42% who identified as or leaned Republican. That re-establishes a Democratic edge in party affiliation after the two parties were essentially tied in 2010 and 2011."

Is The GOP Running Out Of White Voters?

Posted Jan 02, 2013 at 6:51 AM by Maurice Berger

With the population of older white--and generally GOP-leaning--voters aging out and dying, is the Republican Party risking becoming a "regional party" if they don't increase support among Hispanic and other voters. GOP pollster Whit Ayres released a strategy memo saying that Republicans are, indeed, at risk in future elections:  "Mitt Romney won a landslide among white voters, defeating Barack Obama by 59 to 39 percent. In the process he won every large segment of white voters, often by double-digit margins: white men, white women, white Catholics, white Protestants, white old people, white young people. Yet that was not enough to craft a national majority. Republicans have run out of persuadable white voters. For the fifth time in the past six presidential elections, Republicans lost the popular vote. Trying to win a national election by gaining a larger and larger share of a smaller and smaller portion of the electorate is a losing political proposition."

Christie Holds Commanding Reelection Lead

Posted Dec 06, 2012 at 9:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by  Public Policy Polling in New Jersey reports that Republican Gov. Chris Christie holds a commanding lead in this year's reelection effort. Christie's approval rate is 67% to 25% and he would beat hypothetical Democratic challenger, Newark Mayor Cory Booker in a gubernatorial match up by double-digits, 50% to 36%.

PollTrack 2013 Election Coverage: New Jersey Governor

Posted Nov 20, 2012 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

One hot election that PollTrack will be analyzing next year: The New Jersey gubernatorial race. The race may be both lively and consequential, pitting two of the state's most popular politicians against each other, incumbent GOP governor, Chris Christie and Democratic Newark Mayor Corey Booker. Here a teaser from the New Republic: "That perhaps the two most compelling politicians in America hail from the same state is dramatic enough. Now consider that soon they may be running against each other. . . . Visions of a Booker-Christie match-up make political junkies weak at the knees... There are no nationwide campaigns next year, and just two gubernatorial seats are up for grabs, so this race--hypothetical though it remains--would have America's attention. Money would flow: Both are beloved by Wall Street and, having campaigned on other candidates' behalf, are loaded with IOUs from political fundraisers around the country. Coverage would be nonstop: Both are extraordinarily talented at handling the microphone and delivering social media-optimized sound bites. And the stakes would be high: Both have designs on the presidency, and are aware of the benefits of handing the other a premature political death." PollTrack adds that the race may also serve as an early moratorium on President Obama's second term much as this year's other big race: Governor of Virginia.