Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Widespread Distrust In Government

Posted Aug 14, 2014 at 12:16 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by CNN reports that there is now widespread distrust in government in the United States: just 13% of Americans say the government can be trusted to do what is right always or most of the time.

HI Gov: Ige Ahead of Abercrombie In Democratic Primary

Posted Aug 06, 2014 at 8:32 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Civil Beat in Hawaii reports that David Ige leads incumbent Gov. Neil Abercrombie in the Democratic primary for governor by double-digits, 51% to 41%.

HI US Senate: Who Is Ahead?

Posted Aug 05, 2014 at 9:22 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Civil Beat in Hawaii reports that incumbent Sen. Brian Schatz leads Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, 49% to 41%. Another poll, however, by Hawaii News Now/Star Advertiser Hawaii reports the opposite, with Hanabusa leading Schatz by eight points in their Democratic primary race, 50% to 42%.

MA Gov: Democrat Coakley Ahead

Posted Aug 04, 2014 at 8:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Boston Globe in Massachusetts reports that Democrat Martha Coakley is +10% ahead of Republican Charlie Baker in the race for governor, 42% to 32%.

FL Gov: Democrat Crist Now Ahead

Posted Jul 29, 2014 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by SurveyUSA in Florida reports that Democrat Charlie Crist now leads incumbent GOP Gov. Rick Scott in the governor's race by +6%--46% to 40%.

GA US Senate: Conflicting Polls

Posted Jul 28, 2014 at 8:38 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen Reports in Georgia reports that Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn in the U.S. Senate race by six points, 46% to 40%. But a new Landmark Communications survey tells another story: in it, Nunn leads by four points, 47% to 43%.

NH US Senate: Democratic Incumbent Ahead

Posted Jul 17, 2014 at 8:08 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by NBC News/Marist in New Hampshire reports that Democratic incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads GOP challenger by Scott Brown by +8%--50% to 42%.

Iowa US Senate: Deadlocked

Posted Jul 16, 2014 at 4:48 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by NBC News/Marist in Iowa reports that Democrat Bruce Braley and Repu Joni Ernst are tied in the race for U.S. Senate, 43% to 43%.

Obama's Favorability Hits New Low

Posted Jun 30, 2014 at 8:04 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey of polls, reports the Washington Post, President Obama's favorability rating has reached new lows: "Fifty-two percent of Americans said they held an unfavorable view of Obama, according to a recent Gallup poll. Forty-seven percent said they held a favorable opinion of him. The five-point net negative favorable rating is a new low for Obama in Gallup polling. The new CNN/ORC International poll showed something nearly identical, with Obama's favorable rating at 47% (a new low for Obama during his presidency in in CNN/ORC polling) and his unfavorable rating at 51%. A Bloomberg National poll pegged Obama's favorability rating at 44%."

NY Gov: Cuomo Holds Huge Lead

Posted Jun 30, 2014 at 8:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Siena in New York reports that incumbent Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo holds a huge +36% lead over GOP challenger Rob Astorino, 57% to 21%.

VA US Senate: Warner Holds Huge Lead

Posted Jun 26, 2014 at 2:18 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen in Virginia reports that incumbent Democratic US Sen. Mark Warner holds a huge lead over GOP challenger Ed Gillespie (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 36%.

MA Gov: Coakley Ahead

Posted Jun 24, 2014 at 10:36 AM by Maurice Berger

According to new poll by Boston Globe/Social in Massachusetts, Democrat Martha Coakley leads Republican Charlie Baker in the race for Governor, 42% to 31%.

HI Gov: Ige Ahead of Abercrombie In Democratic Primary

Posted Jun 23, 2014 at 11:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Honolulu Civil Beat in Hawaii reports that David Ige leads incumbent Gov. Neil Abercrombie by +11% in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, 48% to 37%.

MN US Senate: Franken Holds Modest Lead

Posted Jun 19, 2014 at 12:12 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Survey USA in Minnesota reports that incumbent Democratic US Sen. Al Franken leads GOP challenger Michael McFadden by just +6% in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 42%.


Michigan Gov: Republican Incumbent Ahead

Posted Jun 18, 2014 at 9:29 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Mitchell Research in Michigan, incumbent GOP Gov. Rick Snyder leads Democratic challenger Mark Schauer in the race for governor, 46% to 41%.

Michigan US Senate: Democrat Slightly Ahead

Posted Jun 17, 2014 at 8:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Mitchell Research in Michigan reports that Democrat Gary Peters leads Republican Terri Lynn Land in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 42%.

CO US Senate: Republican Challenger Ahead

Posted Jun 16, 2014 at 9:41 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Magellan Strategies in Colorado, Republican challenger Cory Gardner leads incumbent Democratic Mark Udall in the race for U.S. Senate, 47% to 45%.

Iowa US Senate: Republican In The Lead

Posted Jun 09, 2014 at 12:19 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll suggests that the Democratic candidate for Iowa US Senate, recently in the lead, may now be in trouble. The survey, by Loras College, reports that Republican Joni Ernst now leads Democrat Bruce Braley, 48% to 42%.

MI US Senate: Democrat Ahead

Posted Jun 04, 2014 at 9:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by  EPIC-MRA in Michigan reports that Democrat Gary Peters leads Republican Terri Lynn Land in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 38% with 18% still undecided.

PA Gov: Democrat Wolf Holds Huge Lead

Posted Jun 03, 2014 at 9:11 AM by Maurice Berger

new poll by Rasmussen in Pennsylvania reports that Democrat Tom Wolf holds a huge lead over incumbent GOP Gov. Tom Corbett in the governor's race, 51% to 31%.A

KY US Senate: Razor Close

Posted May 23, 2014 at 1:10 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Survey USA in Kentucky reports a razor close U.S. Senate race, with Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes edging incumbent GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell, 43% to 42%.

CT Governor: Deadlocked

Posted May 20, 2014 at 8:39 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut reports a very close race for governor in a traditionally blue state. The Democratic incumbent Dannel Malloy is now tied with his GOP challenger Tom Foley,43% to 43%.

LA US Senate: Tied

Posted May 19, 2014 at 8:51 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Southern Media & Opinion Research poll reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu the nonpartisan primary for US Senate with 36%, followed closely by republican cchallenge Bill Cassidy at 35%

Control of US Senate: A Red Flag For Democrats In NC?

Posted Apr 11, 2014 at 7:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new SurveyUSA poll in North Carolina reports that Democratic US Sen. Kay Hagan now trails all five possible Republicans she might face in her re-election race this year. In this must win state for Democrats, are Hagan's numbers a red flag?

SD US Senate: Republican Way Ahead

Posted Mar 19, 2014 at 8:17 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Rasmussen Reports in South Dakota reports that former GOP Gov. Mike Rounds holds a huge +20% lead over Democrat Rick Weiland in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 31%. 

NH US Senate: Democrat Incumbent With Solid Lead

Posted Feb 24, 2014 at 8:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in New Hampshire reports that Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads possible GOO challenger Scott Brown by +9%, 47% to 38%.

Is GOP Poised To Take Senate From Democrats

Posted Feb 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by The Monkey Cage, Republicans now have a 54% chance of retaking control of the U.S. Senate in this year's midterm elections: "Our initial Senate forecast for 2014 suggested that Republicans had a solid chance of taking back the Senate.  Now we want to show how they can do it.  Our model suggests, in fact, if Republicans win the Senate elections in only four states -- Alaska, Louisiana, Iowa, and Montana -- then they are very likely to take control of the chamber."

FL Governor: Democrat Crist With Lead

Posted Feb 06, 2014 at 8:27 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the University of Florida reports that Democrat Charlie Crist leads incumbent GOP Gov. Rick Scott in the race for governor, 47% to 40%.

Alaska US Senate: Democratic Incumbent Ahead

Posted Feb 05, 2014 at 9:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in Alaska reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich "continues to lead his potential Republican opponents for reelection by small margins, and that third party candidates could play a spoiler role in helping him win this fall."

Can Obama Govern Federal Government Effectively?

Posted Nov 26, 2013 at 9:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by CNN/ORC reports that only 40% of Americans believe President Obama can manage the federal government effectively, a -12% decline since June.

NY Governor Cuomo's Popularity Lags

Posted Nov 21, 2013 at 8:23 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Siena in New York reports that Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo's job performance rating has dropped to its lowest point, 44% to 52%.

NC Governor In Trouble With Voters

Posted Sep 19, 2013 at 8:33 AM by Maurice Berger

Is the GOP governor of North Carolina in jeapardy of loosing his 2014 reelection bid? A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina reports that incumbent Gov. Governor Pat McCrory's poll numbers have fallen "to their lowest level ever."  According to the survey, only 35% of voters approve of the job he's doing; 53% disapprove.

LA US 2014 Senate: Democratic Advantage

Posted Sep 16, 2013 at 12:10 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Louisiana finds that incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu leads GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy by ten points in her 2014 reelection bid, 50% to 40%. 

Is McConnell In Trouble?

Posted Aug 05, 2013 at 8:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Is Mitch McConnell in trouble in his reelection bid? For the second time in a week, a poll in Kentucky--this one from the Democratic affliated Mellman Group--reports that Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes is leading GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 42%.

KY US Senate: McConnell Has Huge Lead Over GOP Rival

Posted Aug 02, 2013 at 8:37 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the GOP-affiliated Wenzel Strategies in Kentucky reports that Sen. Mitch McConnell holds a huge lead over challenger Matt Bevin in the 2014 Republican primary, 59% to 20%.

WY US Senate: Cheney Has Uphill Battle

Posted Jul 25, 2013 at 9:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Harper Polling in Wyoming reports that incumbent US Sen. Mike Enzi dominates challenger Liz Cheney in a Republican U.S. Senate primary, 55% to 21%.

GOP Gets Most Of The Blame For Gridlock

Posted Jul 16, 2013 at 8:42 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Quinnipiac, 51% of Americans say that the GOP is responsible for gridlock in Washington, D.C. Only 35% percent believe that it is President Obama who "lacks the skills to convince leaders of Congress to work together."

HI: New Poll, Different Result

Posted Jul 03, 2013 at 8:42 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll in the Democratic primary for Hawaii US Senate shows a different result from a poll released earlier in the week. The survey, by Clarity Campaigns-- and paid for by EMILY's List -- reports that Rep. Colleen Hanabusa holds an 11% lead over Sen. Brian Schatz in next year's Democratic primary, 46% to 35%.

HI US Senate: Close Democratic Primary

Posted Jul 02, 2013 at 8:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Civil Beat in Hawaii finds US Sen. Brian Schatz with a narrow lead over Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic US Senate primary, 36% to 33%

Arkansas US Senate: Tough Road For Democrats

Posted Jun 28, 2013 at 8:17 AM by Maurice Berger

Arkansas looks like to tough hold for Democrats in the 2014 US Senate cycle.  A new poll by Basswood Research in the state reports that Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor just edges likely GOP challenger Tom Cotton, 41% to 40%.

CA Governor Maintains Stable Approval Rating

Posted May 31, 2013 at 10:12 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite his state's continuing economic woes, Democratic California Governor Jerry Brown maintains a relatively stable approval rating. A new poll by Public Policy Institute reports that 48% of voters approve of Brown's job performance while just 36% disapprove 

Democrats Ahead In Generic Congressional Ballet

Posted May 24, 2013 at 7:12 AM by Maurice Berger

While a year-and-a-half away, the 2014 election is not far from the mind of pollsters (and political parties). A new poll by Quinnipiac reports that American voters say they are more likely to vote Democratic than Republican for Congress in 2014 -- 41% to 37%. If this holds true, and Democrats gain seats in congress, it would, according to Quinnipiac, "violate the historical model of the president's party losing ground in the sixth year of a presidency."

Kasich Improves Standing In Ohio

Posted Apr 26, 2013 at 10:01 AM by Maurice Berger

In s dramatic political turnaround, a new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that 52% of voters now approve of Republican Gov. John Kasich. In hypothetical match ups, he leads two potential Democratic challengers, besting Ed Fitzgerald, 46% to 37%, and Richard Cordray, 45% to 38%.

Democrat Incumbent Ahead In VA US Senate Race

Posted Apr 02, 2013 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the University of Mary Washington in Virginia reports that Democratoc US Sen. Mark Warner lead GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell In a hypothetical 2014 match up for U.S. Senate, 51% to 35%.

Democratic-Leaning RI Rejects Independent Governor

Posted Mar 08, 2013 at 8:01 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Brown University in Democratic-Leaning Rhode Island reports that Independent Governor Lincoln Chafee is in serious trouble, with an approval rating at a dismal 26%. Democratic Providence mayor Angel Taveras, who is likely to run for governor next year, remains most popular in the state, with a job approval rating of 64%. Another possible Democratic candidate, Treasurer Gina Raimondo, scored a 56% approval rating.

GOP Governor Rebounds In Ohio

Posted Mar 06, 2013 at 8:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Quinnipiac in Ohio reports that Governor Gov. John Kasich's job approval has rebounded, and is now at an all-time high, 53% to 32%, the first time in two years that he tops 50 percent. Quinnipiac observes: "What a difference a few months make. Not that long ago, Democrats were licking their lips at the prospect of taking on an unpopular governor who had a disapproval rating in the 50s. Now his job disapproval rating is just 32% and his chances of re-election appear to be much better than they were thought to be as recently as December."

Will Nate Silver's Predictions Influence Elections

Posted Feb 26, 2013 at 8:36 AM by Maurice Berger

In an interview withStudent Life, Nate Silver suggests that he might end his election forecasting after the 2014 or 2016 elections should his projections "actually influence the elections' outcome." Silver continues: "The polls can certainly affect elections at times. I hope people don't take the forecasts too seriously. You'd rather have an experiment where you record it off from the actual voters, in a sense, but we'll see. If it gets really weird in 2014, in 2016, then maybe I'll stop doing it. I don't want to influence the democratic process in a negative way."

Booker Democratic Candidate To Beat In 2014 NJ US Senate Primary

Posted Feb 20, 2013 at 10:25 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press in New Jersey reports that Cory Booker would have handily beat Sen. Frank Lautenberg in a possible Democratic Senate primary in 2014, 40% to 25%, numbers that offer one reason why Lautenberg chose bot to run for reelection.