Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Today's Map: Clinton 260 Trump 180

Posted Jul 02, 2016 at 5:39 PM by Maurice Berger

Check PollTrack's  map for latest updates.

Today's Map: Clinton 240 Trump 169

Posted Jun 21, 2016 at 10:14 AM by Maurice Berger

Check PollTrack maps for latest updates.

Democrats In Command Of Electoral College?

Posted Apr 10, 2013 at 9:38 AM by Maurice Berger

Mike Murphy argues that the Democrats now hold a structural advantage in the Electoral College: "The GOP's greatest challenge is the fact that Democrats begin each presidential election with a near lock on the Electoral College. Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia have given their electoral votes to the Democratic presidential nominee in at least five out of the last six elections. These states represent 257 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win the presidency. Under current trends, the GOP nominee has to pull the equivalent of drawing an inside straight in poker to get to the White House."

Did Hurricane Sandy Blunt Romney's Momentum?

Posted Dec 12, 2012 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger

Did Hurricane Sandy Blunt Romney's Momentum? According to former Romney strategist Stuart Stevens, the campaign lost momentum in the final week as Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast: "After the storm, I never had a good feeling. Not that the storm impacted things so much, per se, but these races -- a race like this is a lot like an NBA game. It's all about ball control at the end... We went from having these big rallies around the country to literally sitting around in hotel rooms and there was just nothing we could do about it." PollTrack must point out, however, that at no point during the last three months of the 2012 election cycle did its own analysis of the race--and its polling averages--indicate enough momentum for Romney to suggest a possible win. Indeed, PollTrack's Election Maps never showed Obama dropping below the 270-mark nor Romney rising above it, even after the President's sub-par debate performance in Denver in early-October. 

How The Maps Work: A Tutorial For New Visitors

Posted Aug 31, 2012 at 11:29 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack will periodically re-post this tutorial to accommodate new visitors:

 

For new visitors or for old visitors who would like a refresher course, here is a guide to PollTrack's unique mapping system. Remember, both Today's Map and Tomorrow's Map will be changing continuously throughout Election 2012, so check back often.

First, an overview: our innovative presidential election maps offer a snapshot of where things stand and where they are headed in the state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Armed with public opinion polls, the history and demographics of each state, knowledge of the nation’s geographic and cultural diversity, and common sense and intuition, political director Maurice Berger offers continuous updates and a blog (below map) on the state of the presidential race. Today’s Map Today monitors its current status. Tomorrow’s Map Today charts its momentum in the coming days or weeks. And Election Day Today records the actual outcome of the 2012 presidential race.

Here's a guide to each map:

Today's Map Today: This map monitors the current status of the race. It gauges the relative strength of each candidate within each state as it presently stands. Each state is marked with its abbreviation and number of electoral votes. Click on a state for commentary in the ongoing PollTrack blog.

States are called on an ongoing basis: Blue and Red for “Safe” Democrat or Republican respectively, Light Blue or Light Red for states currently “leaning” toward one party or another. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including poll averages, trends in most recent polling that contradict or call into question the accuracy of these averages, and on the ground reports and information. For diehard red or blue states (like Idaho or DC), little polling may be available, so the state will be called on the basis of on the ground reports and/or its stable voting history.

Tomorrow's Map Today: This map charts the momentum of the race. It tracks the hunt for electoral votes in each state as it might play out in the coming days or even weeks. States are called on an ongoing basis: Blue and Red for trends that suggest “Safe” Democrat or Republican respectively, Light Blue or Light Red for trends that suggest a state is “leaning” toward one party or another. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including movement in the most recent polling, a state’s demographics and voting history, on the ground reports and information, and news about a candidate's state-wide political activities.

Election Day Map Today: This map forecasts the outcome of the 2012 presidential race. Win Democrat or Win Republican respectively. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including long term and recent trends in state-wide polling, a state’s demographics and voting history in relationship to these trends, on the ground reports and information, and news about a candidate's state-wide political activities. States are called on an ongoing basis, with Blue (Democrat) and Red (Republican) indicating PollTrack’s long-term prediction for a state. NOTE: calls are made only when voter opinion begins to solidify in each state, thus this map will fill-in slowly over the next two and half months.