Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Internal Sources: Trump Short of 270 EVs

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 6:07 PM by Maurice Berger

Internal campaign sources from both the Trump and Clinton campaign believe that the GOP candidate will fall short in the hunt for electoral votes. Stay tuned.

Corrected: Latest from Votecastr: Eight for Eight Clinton

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 6:05 PM by Maurice Berger

According to Votecastr, which calculates approximate votes tallies on an ongoing basis through election day, Clinton is leading in eight out of eight key battleground states:

Florida: Clinton 49% Trump 45%

Iowa: Clinton 47% Trump 46% 

Colorado: Clinton 47% Trump 42%

Nevada: Clinton 47% Trump 44%

New Hampshire: Clinton 47% Trump 45%

Ohio: Clinton 46% Trump 45%

Pennsylvania: Clinton 48% Trump 45%

Wisconsin: Clinton 49% Trump 42%

Exit polling is provided by Votecastr (and Edison, which is used by all other media outlets). Their tally updates all day as voting patterns change. The accuracy of their novel methodology is, of course, yet to be proved.

Latest from Votecastr

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 4:43 PM by Maurice Berger

According to Votecastr, which calculates approximate votes tallies on an ongoing basis through election day, Clinton is leading infive  out of seven key battleground states. Over the past few houses, their tallies have shown the race tightening somewhat. It is also unclear whether they have fixed their calculation problem to include all three voter tiers--early, pre-election polling, and election day voting:

Florida: Clinton 48% Trump 45% D+3

Iowa: Trump 46% Clinton 45% R+1

Colorado: Clinton 46% Trump 43% D+3

Nevada: Clinton 46% Trump 45% D+1

Ohio: Clinton 46% Trump 45% R+1

Pennsylvania: Clinton 48% Trump 45% D+3

Wisconsin: Clinton 48% Trump 43% D+5

These numbers are based only on election day voting numbers. So we'll need to wait until they're reconciled with early vote analysis and pre-election polling. Exit polling is provided by Votecastr (and Edison, which is used by all other media outlets). Their tally updates all day as voting patterns change. The accuracy of their novel methodology is, of course, yet to be proved. And complete tallys are not, as yet, available.

Clinton Leading In Florida?

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 10:57 AM by Maurice Berger

According to the new voting analysis site, Votecastr, Hillary Clinton has a roughly +3% lead over Donald Trump in early voting in Florida.

FINAL Today's Map: Clinton-322 Trump-216 TCTC-0

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 9:20 AM by Maurice Berger

Our final tally for the hunt for electoral votes! Checks out Today's and Tomorrow's map for the details.

FINAL Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +3.7%

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.6%

Trump: 41.9%

----------------------------------

Clinton +3.7%

Today's Map: Clinton-322 Trump-216 TCTC-0

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 7:01 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Tomorrow's Map: Clinton-322 Trump-216 TCTC-0

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 5:58 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Tomorrow's Map for where the race is headed in its final day!

Today's Map: Clinton-307 Trump-216 TCTC-15

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 5:56 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +3.6%

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 10:48 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.2%

Trump: 41.6%

----------------------------------

Clinton +3.6%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +3.2%

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 9:58 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.9%

Trump: 41.7%

----------------------------------

Clinton +3.2%

Tomorrow's Map: Clinton-323 Trump-215 TCTC-0

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 9:52 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out Tomorrow's Map for where the race is headed in its final day!

Today's Map: Clinton-308 Trump-215 TCTC-15

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 9:48 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +2.8%

Posted Nov 06, 2016 at 9:50 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.9%

Trump: 42.1%

----------------------------------

Clinton +2.8%

What's Going On With The 538 Website?

Posted Nov 06, 2016 at 9:40 AM by Maurice Berger

Why are Nate Silver's numbers more bullish for Trump over at 538, in contrast to virtually all other polling analysis sites (including this one)? Here's an interesting take on why 538's election model differs from all other polling analysis websites.

Ultimately, there is something strange about Nate Silver's methodology in this cycle, as he goes into each poll and "adjusts" it's numbers, mostly in favor of Trump. Is he hedging his bets: remember, he loudly pontificated that Trump could not get the GOP nomination. (We, at PollTrack.com, began to predict a sharp trend towards Trump in August 2015.) Silver did so not based on numbers but his personal opinion, as a pundit reading the GOP electorate. (He also confidently claimed that the Cubs would not win the World Series.)

So now he appears to be bending over backwards not to underestimate Trump. (despite the fact that the general electorate is FAR more diverse and complex than the Republican base). He's adjusting the internals of each poll, thus possibly skewing the Electoral College to show a closer race than other analysis sites (including PollTrack). This doesn't mean that Silver is necessarily wrong, but these adjustments are not explained. How does a poll from an organization with an A+ accuracy rating (according to Silver himself) go from +1 Clinton in Florida to +3 Trump after 538's adjustment of it. No explanation. And frankly, illogical given the quality of the polling of the organization in question.

PollTrack never goes inside polls to adjust their results. If we detect a clearly faulty methodology, we drop the survey from our polling average. This is standard practice. To do otherwise is extremely unorthodox. Maybe Silver is on to something, but without explaining these "adjustments," his conclusions run counter to virtually all of the other polling analysis websites

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +2.7%

Posted Nov 05, 2016 at 5:12 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.0%

Trump: 42.3%

----------------------------------

Clinton +2.7%

Tomorrow's Map: Clinton-307 Trump-216 TCTC-15

Posted Nov 04, 2016 at 7:03 PM by Maurice Berger

Check Tomorrow's Map to see where the hunt for electoral votes is headed.

Today's Map: Clinton-297 Trump-215 TCTC-26

Posted Nov 04, 2016 at 6:59 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +3.1%

Posted Nov 04, 2016 at 5:12 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.9%

Trump: 41.8%

----------------------------------

Clinton +3.1%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +3.0%

Posted Nov 03, 2016 at 5:58 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.0%

Trump: 42.0%

----------------------------------

Clinton +3.0%

Today's Map: Clinton-312 Trump-215 TCTC-11

Posted Nov 03, 2016 at 3:29 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +2.5%

Posted Nov 03, 2016 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.5%

Trump: 42.0%

----------------------------------

Clinton +2.5%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +2.9%

Posted Nov 02, 2016 at 7:14 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.1%

Trump: 41.4%

----------------------------------

Clinton +2.9%

Today's Map: Clinton-323 Trump-215 TCTC-0

Posted Nov 02, 2016 at 3:16 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the latest on the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +4.1%

Posted Nov 01, 2016 at 5:04 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.5%

Trump: 40.4%

----------------------------------

Clinton +4.1%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +6.0%

Posted Oct 31, 2016 at 6:17 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.8%

Trump: 39.8%

----------------------------------

Clinton +6.0%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +6.0%

Posted Oct 30, 2016 at 7:20 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.8%

Trump: 39.8%

----------------------------------

Clinton +6.0%

Today's Map: Clinton-293 Trump-215 TCTC 30

Posted Oct 30, 2016 at 10:25 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the current status for the hunt for electoral votes!

Today's Map: Clinton-322 Trump-215 TCTC-1

Posted Oct 29, 2016 at 7:51 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +5.5%

Posted Oct 29, 2016 at 7:48 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.5%

Trump: 40.0%

----------------------------------

Clinton +5.5%

Today's Map: Clinton-322 Trump-187 TCTC-29

Posted Oct 27, 2016 at 5:21 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +6.2%

Posted Oct 27, 2016 at 5:18 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.5%

Trump: 39.3%

----------------------------------

Clinton +6.2%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +6.5%

Posted Oct 26, 2016 at 5:23 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 46.4%

Trump: 39.9%

----------------------------------

Clinton +6.5%

Today's Map: Clinton-333 Trump-187 TCTC-18

Posted Oct 25, 2016 at 9:11 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +5.1%

Posted Oct 25, 2016 at 9:08 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.1%

Trump: 40.0%

----------------------------------

Clinton +5.1%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +5.5%

Posted Oct 24, 2016 at 9:12 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.9%

Trump: 39.4%

----------------------------------

Clinton +5.5%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +6.4%

Posted Oct 20, 2016 at 10:11 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.4%

Trump: 39.0%

----------------------------------

Clinton +6.4%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +7.7

Posted Oct 19, 2016 at 2:42 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 46.1%

Trump: 38.4%

----------------------------------

Clinton +7.7%

Today's Map: Clinton-351 Trump-187 TCTC-0

Posted Oct 19, 2016 at 11:19 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +7.1%

Posted Oct 19, 2016 at 9:54 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 46.5%

Trump: 39.4%

----------------------------------

Clinton +7.1%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +7.2%

Posted Oct 18, 2016 at 10:04 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 46.5%

Trump: 39.3%

----------------------------------

Clinton +7.2%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +7.2%

Posted Oct 17, 2016 at 4:41 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 46.2%

Trump: 39.0%

----------------------------------

Clinton +7.2%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +6.4%

Posted Oct 17, 2016 at 10:01 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.6%

Trump: 39.2%

----------------------------------

Clinton +6.4%

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +5.4%

Posted Oct 16, 2016 at 10:32 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 45.0%

Trump: 39.6%

----------------------------------

Clinton +5.4%

Tomorrow's Map: Clinton-302 Trump-198 TCTC-33

Posted Oct 14, 2016 at 10:45 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Tomorrow's Map to see where the hunt for electoral votes is headed.

Popular Vote Tally: Clinton +5.3

Posted Oct 14, 2016 at 10:42 PM by Maurice Berger

Today, PollTrack begins its popular vote tally in the election for president:

Clinton: 44.0

Trump: 38.7

----------------------------------

Clinton +5.3

Today's Map Clinton-340 Trump-198

Posted Oct 14, 2016 at 10:38 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Today's Map: Clinton-351 Trump-187 TCTC-0

Posted Oct 13, 2016 at 9:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Check Out Today's Map to see the present state of our electoral map!

 

 

Today's Map: Clinton-340 Trump-198 TCTC-0

Posted Oct 10, 2016 at 1:33 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the hunt for electoral votes!

Today's Map: Clinton-307 Trump-216 TCTC-15

Posted Oct 08, 2016 at 12:58 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the latest in rhe hunt for electoral votes!

Tomorrow's Map: Clinton-307 Trump-216 TCTC-15

Posted Oct 04, 2016 at 9:55 AM by Maurice Berger

Check Tomorrow's Map to see where the hunt for electoral votes is headed.

Today's Map: Clinton-301 Trump-216 TCTC-21

Posted Sep 30, 2016 at 5:44 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Today's Map: Clinton-243 Trump-222 TCTC-73

Posted Sep 26, 2016 at 9:31 AM by Maurice Berger

The electoral map is drawing closer as we head into the first debate. Check out Today's Map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Today's Map: Clinton-272 Trump-222 TCTC-44

Posted Sep 24, 2016 at 10:36 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map to find out where the present state of the hunt for electoral votes stand!

Tomorrow's Map: Clinton-272 Trump-198 TCTC-68

Posted Sep 24, 2016 at 10:32 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out Tomorrow's Map to see where the hunt for electoral votes is headed!

Today's Map: Clinton-272 Trump-216 TCTC-50

Posted Sep 15, 2016 at 2:21 PM by Maurice Berger

Check at Today's Map for the latest on the hunt for electoral votes!

Tomorrow's Map: Clinton-293 Trump-216 TCTC-29

Posted Sep 14, 2016 at 9:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out Tomorrow's Map to see where the hunt for electoral votes is headed.

Today's Map: Clinton-301 Trump-181 TCTC-56

Posted Sep 13, 2016 at 11:39 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the latest on the hunt for electoral votes!

Tomorrow's Map: Clinton-311 Trump 197 TCTC-30

Posted Sep 02, 2016 at 8:02 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Tomorrow's Map to see where the hunt for electoral votes is headed.

Today's Map: Clinton-301 Trump-180 TCTC-57

Posted Sep 01, 2016 at 9:56 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Tomorrow's Map: Clinton-317 Trump 191 TCTC-30

Posted Aug 27, 2016 at 9:38 PM by Maurice Berger

Check Tomorrow's Map for the direction the hunt for electoral votes is headed!

Today's Map Clinton 316 Trump 164

Posted Aug 21, 2016 at 7:13 PM by Maurice Berger

Check update on Today's Map for the latest on the hunt for electoral votes!

Today's Map Clinton 322 Trump 164

Posted Aug 14, 2016 at 10:13 AM by Maurice Berger

Go to Today's Map to see the latest tally in the hunt for Electoral Votes!

Today's Map: Clinton 283 Trump 164

Posted Aug 12, 2016 at 6:20 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for an update in the hunt for Electoral Votes!

Today's Map: Clinton 268 Trump 164

Posted Aug 08, 2016 at 9:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Check Today's Map Today for the latest update on the hunt for electoral votes.

Tomorrow's Map Today: Clinton 302 Trump 180

Posted Aug 03, 2016 at 9:40 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out Tomorrow's Map Today to see where the hunt for Electoral Votes is headed.

Today's Map: Clinton 268 Trump 191

Posted Aug 01, 2016 at 12:32 AM by Maurice Berger

Check Today's Map for the latest update on the hunt for electoral votes!

Today's Map: Clinton 254 Trump 180

Posted Jul 13, 2016 at 2:44 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for PollTrack's latest predictions.

Today's Map: Clinton 259 Trump 180

Posted Jul 06, 2016 at 11:09 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for PollTrack's latest predictions.

Today's Map: Clinton 260 Trump 180

Posted Jul 02, 2016 at 5:39 PM by Maurice Berger

Check PollTrack's  map for latest updates.

Today's Map: Clinton 240 Trump 169

Posted Jun 21, 2016 at 10:14 AM by Maurice Berger

Check PollTrack maps for latest updates.

PollTrack Presidential Maps Are Now Up!

Posted Jun 17, 2016 at 7:32 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's presidential maps are up and running. Their unique structures allows you to get a snapshot of the presidential race for electoral votes as news cycles alter the odds in each state. The map's main feature--unique to PollTrack--allows you to gauge the state of the race Today, a map of Tomorrow, that allows you to look ahead to trends that could reshape the candidates' chances in each state, and later this summer, an Election Day map intended to predict the final outcome.


We're off and running! Enjoy.

Maurice Berger, Ph.D.

Political Director

PollTrack

FINAL Predictions for NJ snd CA Democratic Primary

Posted Jun 07, 2016 at 10:45 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack predicts wins for Hillary Clinton in today's New Jersey and California Democratic primaries. 

Predictions For New Jersey and California Democratic Primaries

Posted May 20, 2016 at 11:23 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack predicts wins for Hillary Clinton in both the New Jersey and California Democratic primaries scheduled for 7 June. Predictions will be revised as we move closer to the primaries. 

FINAL Prediction: Indiana Democratic Primary

Posted May 03, 2016 at 9:43 AM by Maurice Berger

Indiana

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

Prediction: Indiana Democratic Primary

Posted May 01, 2016 at 6:11 PM by Maurice Berger

Indiana

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

FINAL Predictions: 26 April Democratic Primaries

Posted Apr 25, 2016 at 9:58 AM by Maurice Berger

Connecticut

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Delaware

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Maryland

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Pennsylvania

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Rhode Island

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

Predictions: 26 April Democratic Primaries

Posted Apr 21, 2016 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

Connecticut

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Delaware

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Maryland

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Pennsylvania

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

Rhode Island

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

Final Predictions: NY Democratic and GOP Primaries

Posted Apr 18, 2016 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger

Here are PollTrack's standings for the Democratic and GOP presidential primaries in New York:

 

Democratic:

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

GOP

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

New York GOP and Democratic Primaries

Posted Apr 09, 2016 at 9:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Here are PollTrack's standings for the Democratic and GOP presidential primaries in New York:

 

Democratic:

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

GOP

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Ted Cruz

3. John Kasich

Wisconsin Final Prediction: Democratic Primary

Posted Apr 05, 2016 at 10:27 AM by Maurice Berger

Looking at last minute polling, PollTrack now gives the edge in a close race in the Wisconsin Democratic primary to Bernie Sanders.

Wisconsin: Momentum With Hillary?

Posted Apr 04, 2016 at 11:36 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack now rates the Democratic primary in Wisconsin as very close, but with the momentum now perhaps with Hillary Clinton.

Wisconsin Democratic Presidential Primary

Posted Apr 04, 2016 at 12:36 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack now rates the Democratic primary in Wisconsin a toss-up, with perhaps a very slight edge to Bernie Sanders.

Wisconsin Democratic Primary: Prediction

Posted Apr 01, 2016 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's prediction for the up coming Wisconsin Democratic Primary:

1. Bernie Sanders WINNER

2. Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton, Unbeatable?

Posted Mar 26, 2016 at 4:46 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack now believes that it appears to be mathematically impossible for Bernie Sanders to secure the Democratic presidential nomination. By our current projections, based on available polling, state voting history and reports on the ground, PollTrack estimates Hillary Clinton's delegate count to be somewhere in the range of 2,700 to 2,900, including pledged super delegates. 2383 are needed to secure the Democratic nomination.

SC Democratic Primary Prediction

Posted Feb 24, 2016 at 2:55 PM by Maurice Berger

SC Democratic Primary


1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sander

 

 

Clinton Win In Nevada?

Posted Feb 20, 2016 at 4:47 PM by Maurice Berger

Early returns, precincts reporting and remaining, and conditions on the ground suggest that Hillary Clinton will win the Nevada Democratic Caucus.

FINAL PollTrack New Hampshire GOP And Democratic Primary Predictions

Posted Feb 09, 2016 at 12:06 PM by Maurice Berger

Keep in mind the the large number of voters who remain undecided or fluid could dynamically change the final results of both races.

GOP Primary


1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Marco Rubio

4. Jeb Bush

5. Ted Cruz

6. Chris Christie

 

Democratic Primary

1. Bernie Sanders WINNER

2. Hillary Clinton

 

PollTrack New Hampshire GOP And Democratic Primary Predictions

Posted Feb 08, 2016 at 9:25 PM by Maurice Berger

Keep in mind the the large number of voters who remain undecided or fluid could dynamically change the final results of both races.

GOP Primary


1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Marco Rubio

3. John Kasich

4. Jeb Bush

5. Ted Cruz

6. Chris Christie

 

Democratic Primary

1. Bernie Sanders WINNER

2. Hillary Clinton

 

PollTrack Prediction: Iowa GOP & Democratic Caucus

Posted Jan 31, 2016 at 1:00 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's Prediction for the outcome of the GOP and Democratic Iowa Caucuses:


GOP:

WINNER: Donald Trump

2nd Place; Ted Cruz

3rd Place: Marco Rubio

 

Democratic

WINNER: Hillary Clinton

2nd Place: Bernie Sanders

3rd Place: Martin O'Malley

 

25 January Ranking of 2016 Democratic Iowa Caucus

Posted Jan 25, 2016 at 9:50 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's ranking of the Iowa Democratic Caucus:

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Bernie Sanders

3. Martin O'Malley

14 January Ranking of 2016 New Hampshire Democratic Primary

Posted Jan 14, 2016 at 4:26 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's ranking of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary:

1. Bernie Sanders

2. Hillary Clinton

3. Martin O'Malley

14 January Ranking of 2016 Democratic Iowa Caucus

Posted Jan 14, 2016 at 4:25 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's ranking of the Iowa Democratic Caucus:

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Bernie Sanders

3. Martin O'Malley

24 November Ranking of 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidates

Posted Nov 24, 2015 at 8:18 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 24 November 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive Democratic candidates, from most to least likely to prevail. Starting with the 9 November Ranking: PollTrack has narrowed the field to the candidates it considers viable:

 

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Bernie Sanders

9 November Ranking of 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidates

Posted Nov 09, 2015 at 7:09 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 9 November 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive Democratic candidates, from most to least likely to prevail. Starting with the 9 November Ranking: PollTrack has narrowed the field to the candidates it considers viable:

 

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Bernie Sanders

 

24 October Ranking 2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Posted Oct 24, 2015 at 4:42 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 24 October 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive Democratic candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

 

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Bernie Sanders

3. Martin O'Malley

 

20 October Ranking 2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination

Posted Oct 20, 2015 at 7:52 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 14 October 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive Democratic candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

 

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Bernie Sanders

3. Joe Biden

4. Martin O'Malley

5. Lincoln Chafee

14 October Ranking of 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidates

Posted Oct 14, 2015 at 8:53 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 14 October 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive Democratic candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

 

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Bernie Sanders

3. Joe Biden

4. Martin O'Malley

5. Jim Webb

6. Lincoln Chafee

10 October Ranking of 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidates

Posted Oct 10, 2015 at 10:17 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 10 October 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive Democratic candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

 

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Bernie Sanders

3. Joe Biden

4. Jim Webb

5. Martin O'Malley

6. Lincoln Chafee

7 October Ranking of 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidates

Posted Oct 07, 2015 at 1:26 PM by Maurice Berger

UNCHANGED

Here is PollTrack's 7 October 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive Democratic candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

 

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Joe Biden

3. Bernie Sanders

4. Jim Webb

5. Martin O'Malley

6. Lincoln Chafee

29 September Ranking of 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidates

Posted Sep 29, 2015 at 4:55 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 24 September 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive Democratic candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

 

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Joe Biden

3. Bernie Sanders

4. Jim Webb

5. Martin O'Malley

6. Lincoln Chafee

 

PollTrack Coverage of Election 2016!

Posted May 03, 2015 at 10:13 AM by Maurice Berger

As more reliable polling pours in this summer for the primary races for President and US Senate, PollTrack will begin it's coverage of Election 2016. Stay tuned for updates. 

Clinton's Favorability Declines

Posted Jul 02, 2014 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Bloomberg National reports that 52% of Americans view Hillary Clinton favorably, down from 56% in March and 70% in December 2012.

2016 Democratic Nomination: Clinton Holds Commanding Lead

Posted Jun 13, 2014 at 12:50 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by ABC News-Washington Post reports that Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, with support from 69% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. "Clinton also fares well in public perceptions in the new poll: 67% of Americans view her as a strong leader, 60% say she's honest and trustworthy, and 59% say she has new ideas for the country's future

A Clear Majority View Clinton Favorably

Posted Feb 26, 2014 at 7:43 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "a clear majority of Americans, 59%, still view Hillary Clinton favorably a year after she left her post as secretary of state. Clinton's current rating is noticeably lower than the 64% she averaged while serving in President Barack Obama's cabinet."

Clinton In Commanding Position For Nomination

Posted Feb 03, 2014 at 6:05 PM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Washington Post-ABC News reports that former U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton "trounces her potential primary rivals with 73% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, reinforcing a narrative of inevitability around her nomination if she runs. Vice President Biden is second with 12%, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is third with 8%."

Christie Support Continues To Slip

Posted Jan 22, 2014 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger

Are GOP NJ Governor Chris Christie's national aspirations slipping? A new poll by Quinnipiac reports that Christie now trails Democrat Hillary Clinton in a possible presidential match up, 46% to 38%.Last month, the two were tied at 40% each.

Christie Falling Behind Clinton In Potential 2016 Matchup

Posted Jan 20, 2014 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger

While a new poll by NBC News/Maristl reports that nearly seven in 10 Americans say the George Washington Bridge scandal engulfing New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's administration hasn't changed their opinion of him, he has lost considerable ground to Hillary Clinton in an early hypothetical presidential match up. He now trails Clinton by a -13%, 50% to 37% among nationwide voters.

Is Chris Christie The 2016 Front-runner?

Posted Dec 23, 2013 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that New Jersey GOP Governor Chris Christie now leads Hillary Clinton, and all other possible Democratic candidates, in hypothetical match-ups. According to the poll, Christie leads Clinton, 45% to 42%, "because he's viewed favorably across party lines. He's at 48/26 with Republicans, 46/28 with independents, and 38/36 with Democrats."     

2016 Prrsidential Race: Who Do Iowans Prefer?

Posted Dec 17, 2013 at 8:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll out from the Des Moines Register reports that Rep. Paul Ryan "is wildly popular here with a 73% favorable rating, a surprise finding that reveals he's at the forefront of potential 2016 GOP presidential candidates in the nation's kickoff voting state." The Democratic horse race shows an even clearer favorite in a state that registers its preferences in the party nominating process earlier than any other: Ryans' popularity "isn't as striking as the overwhelming affinity Iowa Democrats have for Hillary Clinton, with 89% saying they have a positive opinion of her. Just 7% of voting-age Democrats have a negative impression the former U.S. secretary of state and U.S. senator from New York."

Clinton's Numbers Are Formidable

Posted Jun 03, 2013 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac reports that Hillary Clinton remains in a very strong position for the 2016 presidential cycle. Pitting her against two hypothetical GOP challengers, her numbers are very strong: She leads both Jeb Bush (48% to 40%) and Sen. Rand Paul (49% to 41%) by eight points.

Clinton Way Ahead For 2016 Democratic Nomination

Posted May 15, 2013 at 2:29 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac reports former US Senator and First Lady Hillary Clinton holds a commanding lead over other potential 2016 candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination, with 65%, followed by Joe Biden at 13% and Andrew Cuomo at 4%.

Hillary Clinton Way Ahead For 2016 Democratic Nomination

Posted May 01, 2013 at 7:48 AM by Maurice Berger

If there was any doubt that Hillary Clinton is the prohibitive favorite for the 2016 Democratic nomination for President, anew Fairleigh Dickinson University poll puts those doubts to rest:  Clinton leads with 63%, followed by Joe Biden 12%, Andrew Cuomo 3%.

Obama, Clinton Most Admired Americans

Posted Jan 09, 2013 at 8:53 AM by Maurice Berger

From Gallup: "Americans again this year name Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama as the Most Admired Woman and Most Admired Man living in any part of the world. Clinton has been the Most Admired Woman each of the last 11 years, and Obama has been the Most Admired Man five years in a row. First lady Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey, and Condoleezza Rice are next in line behind Clinton on the Most Admired Woman list, while Nelson Mandela, Mitt Romney, Billy Graham, George W. Bush, and Pope Benedict XVI follow Obama as Most Admired Man." Here is Gallup' chart:

Most Admired Woman, 2012Most Admired Man, 2012

Can Cuomo Effectively Challenge Clinton In 2016?

Posted Jan 03, 2013 at 9:53 AM by Maurice Berger

With many speculating that Hillary Clinton will mount another run for president in 2016, NY Governor Andrew Cuomo appears also to be weighing his options. Will the Governor's sky-high popularity in his home state increase his standing within the Democratic party? Or is Senator Clinton unstoppable? A recent poll by Quinnipiac in New York reports that Cuomo holds a stunning 74% to 13% approval rating, his highest score to date and the latest in a six-month string of 70+ percent positive ratings. But it is the demographic breakdown of these number that may add fuel to the Cuomo presidential bandwagon: 68% (to 18%) of Republicans and 70% (to 12%) of independent voters also approve of the way he is handling his job. In the end, New York is not a good indicator of national sentiment and popularity: there, it is Sen. Clinton who holds the edge, with a national approval rating at nearly 70%, higher than her husband or the president.

Hillary Clinton: Career High Popularity

Posted Dec 13, 2012 at 1:59 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by ABC New/Washington Post, 57% of voters would back a presidential bid by Hillary Clinton, with just 37% opposed. And she now has a 69% approval rating for her job as as Secretary of State early as well as a 67% overall favorability rating,  a high in her long public career.

Assessing The Democratic Field in 2016

Posted Dec 05, 2012 at 9:28 AM by Maurice Berger

Harry Enten, applying a statistical method that assesses potential presidential candidates by ideology, places New York Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo to the right of a number of possible contenders. Cuomo, Enten writes, "simply doesn't have that liberal allure" that Hillary Clinton or other popular Democrats mentioned as possible presidential candidates in 2016. He continues: "If these numbers are to believed, the possible 2016 roster of candidates will position Cuomo and Warner as ideologically conservative Democrats, Biden and O'Malley as moderate Democrats, Clinton, Patrick, and Schweitzer as liberal Democrats, and Warren as a very liberal Democrat."

PollTrack believes that we have a long way to go until 2016. Perceptions may change as voters become more familiar with the potential candidates (of both parties).

Hillary Clinton Favorability Hits New High

Posted May 03, 2012 at 9:31 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Washington Post-ABC News reports that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's favorable rating--at 65%--is the highest level of support reached by the former first lady in the history of the poll. Just 27% of respondents viewed Clinton unfavorably.

Gallup: Most Admired Men and Women of 2011

Posted Dec 29, 2011 at 2:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Gallup, reports that "Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama continue to be named by Americans as the Most Admired Woman and Most Admired Man living today in any part of the world. Clinton has been the Most Admired Woman each of the last 10 years, and Obama has been the Most Admired Man four years in a row. Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama, Sarah Palin, and Condoleezza Rice round out the top five Most Admired women, while the top five Most Admired men also include George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Billy Graham, and Warren Buffett." Here is Gallup's chart: 

Most Admired Woman, 2011

Most Admired Man, 2011

Hillary Clinton Maintains High Favorability Rating

Posted Sep 19, 2011 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Bloomberg poll, 64% of Americans maintain a favorable view of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The poll also reports that 34% of respondents are "suffering a form of buyer's remorse," saying the U.S. would be better off now if she had become president in 2008 instead of Barack Obama.

Obama, Clinton: Most Admired Americans

Posted Jan 05, 2010 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by USA TODAY/Gallup finds that President Obama is the man Americans admired most in 2009, and finds Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin are virtually tied as the most-admired woman.The close finish by Clinton, named by 16% in the open-ended survey, and Palin, named by 15%, reflects the nation's partisan divide. Clinton was cited by nearly 3 in 10 Democrats but only 6% of Republicans, Palin by a third of Republicans but less than 1% of Democrats. Obama dominates the field among men at 30%, though his support also shows a partisan split. He was named by more than half of Democrats but just 7% of Republicans.

Hillary Clinton More Popular Than The President

Posted Dec 30, 2009 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a recent survey by the Clarus Research Group, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton maintains a higher approval rating as Obama's secretary of State than Obama as president. The poll of registered voters self-identifed as "news watchers," reported Obama's approval rating at 51% (to 45% disapproval). According to CQ Politics analysis of the poll: "Clinton -- who lived in the White House as first lady to President Bill Clinton and later was a U.S. senator from New York -- enjoyed an approval rating as secretary of State of 75 percent to 21 percent negative. Clinton's performance in her Cabinet post received the approval of 96 percent of the Democratic respondents. But what is truly remarkable is that Clinton, who had very few Republican fans as first lady, senator or presidential candidate, received approval from 57 percent of Republican respondents, as well as 65 percent of independents."

Americans Like Clinton At State Department

Posted Jan 15, 2009 at 3:21 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll reports that while U.S. voters like Secretary of State  Condoleezza Rice better than her designated successor, Hillary Clinton, most are confident that Clinton is up to the task of being America’s chief diplomat: "62% are at least somewhat confident in Clinton’s ability to address the international challenges facing our nation in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Gaza Strip. 34% are Very Confident . . . 15%, however, are not at all confident of Clinton’s abilities to deal with these issues."

Obama Transition Effort Highly Regarded By Public

Posted Dec 03, 2008 at 4:12 AM by Maurice Berger

American voters like what they're seeing with regard to President-Elect Obama's transition efforts. According to a new  USA Today/Gallup Poll, Obama gets soaring marks for his handling of the transition and his choices for the Cabinet . . . even at a time the public is downbeat over the economy. More than three of four Americans, including a majority of Republicans, approve of the job Obama has done so far — broad-based support he'll need as he faces tough decisions ahead." The public also has a very positive opinion of the new president's cabinet appointments--by 69%-25%, they approve of his pick of New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as Secretary of State; by an even wider margin, 80%-14%, they approve of his decision to reappoint President Bush's Pentagon chief, Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

Exit Polls: Hillary Clinton Would Have Won By A Wider Margin

Posted Nov 13, 2008 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger

CBS News Election and Survey Unit's analysis of exit polls in last weeks elections concludes that Hillary Clinton would have beaten McCain by a wider margin than Obama: "As voters left the polls on Election Day, many were asked how they would have voted if the election match-up were between Hillary Clinton and John McCain rather than Barack Obama and McCain. 52 percent said they would have backed the former Democratic candidate; 41 percent would have voted for McCain, wider than Obama’s 7-point margin over McCain. Interestingly, 16 percent of McCain voters said they would have voted for Clinton, the Democrat, if she had been her party’s nominee." While this conclusion is, of course, hypothetical--it's hard to predict how any candidate would do in the heat of a hard fought campaign--the piece examines the makeup of voters who now say thay would have supported Clinton instead of the Republican candidate.

Why Obama Won: The Clinton Factor

Posted Nov 12, 2008 at 1:14 AM by Maurice Berger

During the closely fought Democratic primaries and caucuses, a growing and thunderous chorus of Obama supporters (mostly male, by PollTrack's count) called for Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the race. One problem: throughout the latter races, Clinton trailed Obama by just a few hundred delegates at most. And, so, the contest continued to the bitter end, early June. At the time, many Obama supporters felt the hard fought contest would hurt Obama in the fall. In the end, it turned out to be a great asset, allowing him to insulate himself against potential negatives, such as the candidate's association with the Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, and others. Once aired, and adeptly handled by the Obama campaign, these factors were neutralized to a certain extent for the fall campaign. More important, the long primary season allowed the Obama campaign to build deep and formidable on-the-ground operations in virtually all of the battleground states. As contributions flowed in--indeed, the heated match between the two Democratic challengers fired up their respective bases--Obama built a powerful fund raising and voter turnout database. The icing on the cake: after the "bruising" primary fight ended, Obama was able to attract the lion's share of Clinton supporters on 4 November. Obama pollster Joel Benenson, in Time magazine, notes the campaign never believed it would have trouble winning back supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton. Said Benenson: "The notion that voters who supported Senator Clinton would vote Republican in the general election was never supported by what we saw in our polling. At the beginning of June, going into the general election, Obama had a double-digit lead in our battleground poll against McCain among women. He was competitive among Catholics and led 2 to 1 among Latinos. The press corps had focused on all these groups in the last three months of the primary and was convinced that they would pose problems for us in the general. But that just wasn't true, and we recognized that early on. As a result, we were able to focus on swing voters instead of worrying about parts of the base that were already with us. We looked at groups where Obama could make gains and at places where he could broaden the map."

What's Going On With Pennsylvania?

Posted Nov 01, 2008 at 3:36 AM by Maurice Berger

With several new polls showing the race in Pennsylvania drawing closer, the question of the day is why. Rasmussen this morning reports on the narrowing trajectory over the past month: the latest "survey of voters in the state shows Obama with 51% of the vote while McCain picks up 47%. That four-point advantage for Obama is down from a seven-point margin earlier in the week and a 13-point advantage for Obama earlier in the month." First it is important to note that the Democrat does lead, has held this advantage for more than a month, and passes the 50% threshold. The competitiveness of the race, however, may relate to the state's demographics, which tend to be evenly divided among Democrat- and Republican-leaning voters (the old joke about PA: it's New York in the big cities at either end of the state; Alabama in the middle). Kerry won the state very narrowly four years ago. The state has one of the oldest populations in the nation (+65 voters tend to favor McCain), a large and politically active bloc of gun owners, and a large contingent of conservative, working class white voters. Even among Democratic primary voters in April--who trended considerably more progressive than the statewide electorate at large--Hillary Clinton defeated Obama by nearly a +10% margin. Indeed, during the fall campaign, PA has been the one Kerry/Gore blue State that has given Obama the most trouble. PollTrack was the first polling website to note Obama's problem in the state, writing on 11 September: "With three new polls all showing the race in Pennsylvania drawing down to a statistical tie --Obama now leads by an average of just over 2%--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from 'Leaning Democrat' to 'Too Close to Call.' It is quite possible that the RNC and Palin are helping McCain in the more conservative middle section of the state--an area rich in small towns, Evangelical and Christian conservative voters, and gun owners." (NOTE: the previous passage is a quotation from PollTrack's post in early September: PA remains "Safe Democrat" as of 1 November and until further evaluation on Today's and Tomorrow's Map) If Pennsylvania, and its unique demographics, represents an isolated example of a narrowing race, Obama may hold enough of a structural advantage in the electoral college to win handily on Tuesday. But if PA is a harbinger of a broader national pattern--say, for example, indicating a tendency of white working class and Reagan Democrats to vote for McCain, whether they are admitting this to pollsters or not--certain statewide contests could draw closer as well, particularly Ohio and Missouri.

Bush Approval At All-Time Low: How Will This Effect Election 2008?

Posted Oct 01, 2008 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

President Bush's approval rating has dropped to an all-time low, according to Gallup: "Before the U.S. House of Representatives voted down a proposed financial rescue plan endorsed by the Bush administration, just 27% of Americans said they approved of the job George W. Bush is doing as president, the lowest of his presidency and already down 4 points since the financial crisis intensified." To what extent, PollTrack wonders, is this decline, coupled with the voters' tendency in recent surveys to blame Republicans in general for the present economic crisis, contributing to McCain's declining polling numbers? Over the next month, will it be possible for McCain to transcend the negative standing of his party? Is his fate inexorably linked to the success or failure--or the public perception thereof--of the bailout package and its economic aftermath? Interestingly, while McCain's numbers have drawn back to pre-convention levels--and Obama's are up accordingly--the Democrat still does not break the 50% mark in most national polls. PollTrack observes that there remains a undertow of resistance to Obama in the electorate at large. This inability to seal the deal with the American voter may be due to a number of factors--including uncertainty about the candidate's experience, his inability to lock up support from working class and so-called Reagan Democrats (thus, McCain's leads in OH, TN, WV, and KY) and die hard Hillary Clinton supporters, overt or unconscious racism, or the perception that the Democrat is somehow "foreign" or "out of touch" with middle American values. Will the nation's economic implosion help Obama to seal the deal or will McCain retake the momentum?

What About Those Clinton Voters?

Posted Sep 30, 2008 at 2:36 AM by Maurice Berger

In a bit of news that seems antithetical to Obama's improving poll numbers, a statewide poll released yesterday by Middle Tennessee State University reports that Democrat is still having a problem winning over voters who supported Hillary Clinton in Tennessee's primary back in February. If the election remains close, this "Clinton gap" could spell trouble for the Democrat. MTSU observes: "The McCain campaign seems to have had modest success at attracting supporters of former Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, whom 22 percent of Tennesseans say they voted for in the Democratic primary. A quarter of those who voted for the junior senator from New York in Tennessee’s Democratic presidential primary say that they would now vote for McCain and Palin in the general election. However, 56 percent of those who report that they voted for Clinton in the primary say that they would now vote for Obama and Biden. The rest of Clinton’s supporters remain undecided at this point or say they would vote for someone other than McCain or Obama." Overall, McCain's PollTrack average in the state is a healthy +14%.

The Clinton Effect: Is Obama Still Struggling With Her Supporters?

Posted Sep 23, 2008 at 3:56 AM by Maurice Berger

An Associated Press-Yahoo News survey released today reports that Barack Obama's support from former backers of Hillary Clinton "is stuck smack where it was in June . . . a stunning lack of progress that is weakening him with fellow Democrats in the close presidential race." The poll indicates that "among adults who backed his rival during their bitter primary campaign, 58 percent now support Obama. That is the same percentage who said so in June, when Clinton ended her bid and urged her backers to line up behind the Democratic senator from Illinois."

The State Of The Race: 45 Days To Go

Posted Sep 19, 2008 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger

Yesterday, a rush of statewide surveys resulted in a changed Today's Map. What are the implications of Indiana going from red to gray, Minnesota from blue to gray? One important observation: it looks like the national divisions of 2000 and 2004 are still around. With the exception of usually true-red Indiana (PollTrack still believes the state will eventually trend back to the Republicans), the same swing states are drawning down to a tie. (And, yes, despite the fact that no Democrat has won the state's electoral votes since LBJ in 1964, Virginia is now a swing state: it has actually grown bluer in recent years. Consider the 2006 senate race, where Democrat James Webb defeated Republican George Allen by a mere 8,000 votes.) PollTrack suspects that these divisions may be sharpened by the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates. McCain has been able to solidify the Republican base, take the lion's share of the very dependable (re: voter turnout) 65+ demographic, and appeal to independents. Obama does well with urban voters, young people, African-Americans, and Hispanic voters. The problem for both: they each appeal to the same constituent demographics as Gore and Bush, Bush and Kerry, leaving a slim pool of swing voters (married suburban women, for example) to essentially break the tie. PollTrack suggests that other factors--preeminently Obama's race, women disaffected by the Obama campaign's handling of Hillary Clinton, McCain's age, and Palin's  religious conservatism--are making it difficult for either candidate to eat into the other's base or to pick off large segments of independent and unaffiliated voters.

CNN: Post-Biden, The Election Now A "Dead Heat"

Posted Aug 25, 2008 at 1:27 AM by Maurice Berger

A CNN poll conducted entirely after Obama's naming of Biden as his running mate shows the race a dead heat, at 47%-47%. The survey, which indicates that McCain has gained ground since July, also suggests that the naming of Biden has failed to quell the concerns of some Clinton supporters. As the CNN's polling directer notes, “The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most although not all of the support McCain has gained in that time.” 

Yet, it may be too soon to tell if this trend will hold. For one, the Obama campaign plans to use the Democratic National Convention to unify the party and heal wounds left over from the primaries. Perhaps as important is the unreliability of "flash polls"--surveys completed during or immediately after an important event or news story in question. Such polling gauges the effects of the incident or event in question on voter sentiment--in this case the nomination of Biden--over a highly compressed time period. Thus, the reaction time of voters may be insufficient for public opinion to be fully formed.

Gallup & Rasmussen: Does Biden Help?

Posted Aug 24, 2008 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

In a survey conducted yesterday and published this morning, Rasmussen Reports finds that 39% of voters believe that Obama made the right choice in selecting Biden as his running mate; 25% disagreed and another 35% are not sure. Women were less enthusiastic than men of the pick—33% of women say Biden was the right choice while 27% disagreed. It appears from these limited and early numbers that Biden may not resolve Obama's problem with Hillary  Clinton's most ardent female supporters.

In another flash poll completed yesterday by Gallup, the numbers suggest that the new VP nominee may have little effect on most voters: only 14% say that the selection of Biden makes them more likely to support Obama. 7% say less likely; 72% replied that it will have no effect at all.


A word of caution: it may take weeks or even months to understand the full effect of a VP pick. And most often, the VP candidate has only a modest effect, at best, on the outcome of a presidential election. In 1988, for example, Democrat Michael Dukakis lost with a running mate considered strong by most observers, Sen. Lloyd Bentson (D-Texas); his opponent Republican George H. W. Bush won, even though his choice, Sen. Dan Quayle (R-Indiana), was widely perceived as weak and inexperienced.

Joe Biden: The VP Effect + New Call Delaware: Leaning to Safe

Posted Aug 23, 2008 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Well, it's Sen. Joe Biden (D-DEL). The immediate question: how will his selection as Obama's running mate impact on their standing in the polls and electorally? For one, PollTrack will now move Delaware from ""likely Democrat" to "safe Democrat."

Beyond this, the implications of Biden's role on the ticket are unclear electorally. There is no one swing state that Biden can help lock in for Obama (as LBJ did for JFK in Texas in 1960, and Kaine or Bayh might have accomplished in this cycle, with Virginia or Indiana respectively). His experience, of course, could help with voters concerned about Obama's inexperience, a serious problem for him at the moment (see below, "Tightening Race: Crisis Management").

The big hurdle that Obama now faces, however--one that accounts to a great extent for the closeness of the race--is that McCain has unified his party and Obama has not. Will selecting Biden help bring disgruntled Clinton supporters into the fold, for example?  This seems unlikely right now.  And, of course, the VP selection rarely significantly alters the dynamics of an election.

The Clinton Factor

Posted Aug 21, 2008 at 2:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll suggests that Hillary Clinton's supporters are sharply divided in their support for Barack Obama. While the poll directors conclude that “Whatever momentum that Obama took into the summer, he really appears to have lost it,” they attribute this erosion to the candidate's failure to unify his party, in contrast to McCain.

More troubling for Obama, perhaps, are the numbers concerning voters who supported Clinton in the primaries and caucuses: according to the survey, 52% now say they will vote for Obama, 21% are backing McCain, and 27% percent are undecided or want to vote for someone else. As the NBC/WSJ points out, voters who supported Clinton in the primaries — but do not now back Obama--"tend to view McCain in a better light than Obama and have more confidence in McCain’s ability to be commander-in-chief."

Though the NBC/WSJ numbers in contrast to other recent polls suggest a somewhat higher percentage of Clinton voters who refuse to support Obama, the implications for him in all of these surveys are dire. Thus, a major question looms about party unity: will the Democratic National Convention be enough--with speeches from both Clintons and a night devoted to women's issues--or must the Obama campaign go one step further and nominate Hillary Clinton for Vice President?

Does McCain Have New Momentum?

Posted Aug 20, 2008 at 2:40 AM by Maurice Berger

Two new polls out to day suggest that the McCain campaign may have gained momentum over the past few weeks. According to the Zogby/Reuters survey, McCain leads Obama among likely voters by 46% to 41% percent, erasing Obama's 7% advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll. The George Washington University Battleground Poll, also published today, gives McCain a more modest 1% lead.

One problem for Obama: recent polls indicate that while McCain has solidified the Republican base, Obama has not. On average, as many as a quarter of Democrats now say they will vote for the Republican or an Independent candidate or not vote at all. The problem becomes more serious among the Democrats who supported Clinton in the primaries: as many as one third in some polls report that they will not support Obama. It will be interesting to track Democratic voter support for Obama in light of the upcoming Democratic National Convention,perhaps an opportunity to help bring the party together?