Posted Mar 31, 2011 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger
According to National Journal, "the Hispanic population surged 43% in the last decade and Hispanics now make up more than 16% of the nation's population." As the Journal notes, this jump could have enormous implications, both for the Democratic and Republican parties: "Every state in the nation saw a surge in Latinos, and traditional
Latino gateways along the border still have the highest percentage,
other states also saw rapid Hispanic growth: There are now 17 states
where Hispanics make up at least 10 percent of the population,
including Utah, Rhode Island and Kansas. In five states, Hispanics now account for at least a quarter of the
population. In states such as Texas and Arizona, that could be good
news for Democrats, who have been benefitting from a Hispanic backlash
against Republicans' tough rhetoric on illegal immigration. Exit polls
indicated that President Obama got two-thirds of the Hispanic vote in
the 2008 election."
Tagged: 2011, Election 2012, Hispanic voters
Posted Feb 17, 2011 at 9:11 AM by Maurice Berger
A impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll reports that President Obama's approval rating among Latino voters is now up to an impressive 70%, after decreasing last year. Surprisingly, however, just 43% of Latino voters say they are sure they will vote for Obama
next year.The latter number continues to suggest an opening for the GOP among Latino voters in the upcoming cycle.
Tagged: Election 2012, Hispanic voters, President Barack Obama, Republican Party
Posted Jul 28, 2010 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger
A new AP/Univision poll reports that President Obama's stadning among Hispanics remains high, with 57% approving of his job performance. By contrast, his aggregate approval rating among all Americans, according to PollTrack's latest numbers, hovers at around 44%.
Tagged: 2010, Hispanic voters, President Barack Obama, presidential approval ratings
Posted May 25, 2010 at 9:25 AM by Maurice Berger
Before Republicans start celebrating what some predict may be a massive victory in November, they may want to take notice of one sobering phenomenon: In Colorado and Arizona, Public
Policy Polling reports that Hispanic voters are now swinging dramatically towards
Democrats in the wake of Arizona's new immigration law. PPP continues: "Hispanics in the Mountain West are leaning much more strongly toward
the Democrats since the Arizona law was passed. The big question then
becomes whether there are white voters who are going to go Republican
this fall who wouldn't have if that bill hadn't been passed. We don't
see any evidence of that happening yet." This trend could easily shift into other states with significant Hispanic populations, effecting very close race in states as disparate as California, Ohio, and Florida, not to mention Colorado and Arizona. Stay tuned. This could be the sleeper phenomenon of the 2010 cycle.
Tagged: 2010, Hispanic voters, public opinion polls, race, Racism, US Congress, Arizona, California, Ohio, Florida, Colorado
Posted Jun 05, 2009 at 9:54 AM by Maurice Berger
The very coalition that assured and strengthened Obama's win last November is now standing strongly behind the president's nominee for the US Supreme Court, Sonia Sotomayor: Boosted by large black, Hispanic and Jewish majorities, American voters
approve--55% to 25%--President Obama's nomination of Judge
Sonia Sotomayor to the U.S. Supreme Court, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. Back in November, African-American support for Obama was well over 90%, Jewish support was just under 80%, and Hispanic support near the 70% mark.
Tagged: 2009, President Barack Obama, Jewish Vote, Hispanic voters, African-American voters, US Supreme Court
Posted Nov 10, 2008 at 10:14 AM by Maurice Berger
When it comes to the issue of how "race" played out on Election Day, one thing is certain: if the outcome was determined only by white people, John McCain would be president, by a landslide. Indeed, Obama garnered just 43% of the white vote to McCain's 57%, a 14% deficit that was only marginally better than Kerry or Gore's total and about the same as Bill Clinton. The Democrat was able to count on four groups for his impressive victory. Preeminently, the intensity and unprecedented numbers of African-American voters made the difference for Obama, especially in the closest fought states, such as Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio. This support was almost singlehandedly responsible for the Democrat's ability to pick off the true-red states of NC and IN. The black vote also deepened and widened Obama's victories in scores of Kerry-blue states, from New York to California. Hispanic voters represented another important asset: Obama led McCain among Hispanics 67% to 30%, a 10% increase in Democrat support from 2004. in his home state, McCain trailed Obama among Hispanics 61%
to 36%, making that race surprisingly close. The Hispanic vote was crucial to Obama in the southwest, handing him easy victories in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. And in Florida, where Cuban-Americans have traditionally
tilted the Hispanic vote towards Republicans in virtually every presidential cycle, Obama won 57% to 42%. Another religious minority also played a key role in several states: Jewish-Americans, who gave the Democrat nearly 80% of their vote. (Jews are one of the demographic groups most loyal to the Democratic Party.) The Jewish vote in South Florida was crucial to handing the Republican leaning state to Obama. (Another state where the Jewish vote made a big difference: Ohio). Finally, through amazing outreach to the 18 to 29-year old demographic, the Obama campaign was able to boost the turnout of younger voters by more than 3 million, enough to hand the Democrat such razor close states as North Carolina and Indiana. Together, these four groups represented not only a winning coalition, but a shift in the power-base of the national electorate, allowing racial and religious minorities and young people to make a profound difference in the outcome of Election 2008.
Tagged: African-American voters, Hispanic voters, Jewish Vote, Younger Voters
Posted Oct 30, 2008 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger
An analysis of early voting data in Nevada suggests that in that state, at least, three of Obama's key constituents are under-performing. The Las Vegas Review-Journal writes: "As Nevadans continue
to flock to the polls, turnout among those three groups is lagging, at
least in the early going. While turnout statewide was nearly 25 percent through Sunday, it was
just 20 percent among Hispanic voters, 14 percent among voters under 30
and 15 percent among those who didn't vote in the last three elections,
according to an analysis of state early voting records through Sunday
prepared by America Votes, an organization that works to mobilize
voters." Such under-voting could be a problem for Obama in the most competitive and closely fought swing states, including skewing likely voter models in polls in the direction of voters who may not show up in anticipated numbers.
Tagged: Younger Voters, Hispanic voters, Voter Enthusiasm, Nevada
Posted Oct 23, 2008 at 5:02 PM by Maurice Berger
A Gallup survey released on Tuesday reports that while Hispanic voters support Barack Obama by a wide margin over John McCain, there is a significant difference in the Hispanic vote by
religion: "Catholic Hispanics support Obama by a 39-point margin, while Hispanics
who are Protestant or who identify with some other non-Catholic Christian faith
support Obama by a much smaller 10-point margin." Obama's leads overall among all Hispanic registered voters by 62% to 30%. It is doubtful that this disparity will impact on the outcome of the election, unless, of course, it is very close.
Tagged: Hispanic voters, Catholic voters, Protestant Voters
Posted Oct 10, 2008 at 1:40 PM by Maurice Berger
John McCain, who bucked his own party to support controversial immigration reform legislation--a bill embraced by Hispanic voters--is now struggling with this all-important Demographic, falling well below the level of support that helped lift
President Bush to the White House. A Gallup poll conducted last week reported a staggering 42% national lead for Obama among Hispanics: 64% to 26%. This deficit is especially detrimental to the Republican in key battlegrounds with large and influential Hispanic populations--including Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia--states where he is now behind or tied.
Tagged: John McCain, Barack Obama, Hispanic voters
