Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Hispanic, Asian Voter Registration Lags

Posted Nov 18, 2013 at 10:21 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "U.S. Hispanics and Asians are much less likely to be registered to vote than whites or blacks. Whereas more than eight in 10 blacks and whites are registered, and therefore able to vote in elections, 60% of Asians and barely half of Hispanics are currently able to participate in the electoral process."

A Pending Latino Majority In CA

Posted Jul 05, 2013 at 8:42 AM by Maurice Berger

"Perhaps today or certainly sometime very soon, another baby will be born or a new immigrant will arrive and the number of Latinos in California will equal the state's non-Hispanic white population," writes the Sacramento Bee. "The change... has long been predicted by state demographers. It won't instantly make Latinos an equally powerful political force in California, or bring their incomes into parity with non-Hispanic whites, or close the school achievement gap. But it is an important milestone - and a reminder that these other goals will become easier to achieve as the number of Latinos continues to grow."

Latinos Overwhelmingly Support Stricter Gun Laws

Posted Apr 15, 2013 at 9:12 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey byNBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll reports that 70% of Latinos believe that "that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict." Just 5% support strict laws and 22% believe they should remain the same.

Democrats More Racially Diverse

Posted Feb 15, 2013 at 10:35 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Gallup, "Non-Hispanic whites accounted for 89% of Republican self-identifiers nationwide in 2012, while accounting for 70% of independents and 60% of Democrats. Over one-fifth of Democrats (22%) were black, while 16% of independents were Hispanic." Here is Gallup's chart:

Racial and Ethnic Composition of U.S., by Party ID, 2012

Is The GOP Running Out Of White Voters?

Posted Jan 02, 2013 at 6:51 AM by Maurice Berger

With the population of older white--and generally GOP-leaning--voters aging out and dying, is the Republican Party risking becoming a "regional party" if they don't increase support among Hispanic and other voters. GOP pollster Whit Ayres released a strategy memo saying that Republicans are, indeed, at risk in future elections:  "Mitt Romney won a landslide among white voters, defeating Barack Obama by 59 to 39 percent. In the process he won every large segment of white voters, often by double-digit margins: white men, white women, white Catholics, white Protestants, white old people, white young people. Yet that was not enough to craft a national majority. Republicans have run out of persuadable white voters. For the fifth time in the past six presidential elections, Republicans lost the popular vote. Trying to win a national election by gaining a larger and larger share of a smaller and smaller portion of the electorate is a losing political proposition."

Romney's Election Deficit Ran Much Deeper Than Hispanics

Posted Dec 26, 2012 at 10:51 AM by Maurice Berger

In an analysis of the popular and electoral vote in Election 2012, The Fix reports that while Republicans had a "major Latino problem,"it didn't cost them the election: "Mitt Romney would have needed to carry as much as 51% of the Hispanic vote in order to win the Electoral College -- a number no Republican presidential candidate on record has been able to attain and isn't really within the realm of possibility these days."

GOP Faces Demographic Problem In The South

Posted Nov 27, 2012 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

According to the Washington Post, the GOP is facing demographic challenges not just with Hispanic voters, but also the decline of white and the ascendency of black voters in the South: "The South [tells] a newer and more surprising story: The nation’s first black president finished more strongly in the region than any other Democratic nominee in three decades, underscoring a fresh challenge for Republicans who rely on Southern whites as their base of national support . . .

. . . Obama won Virginia and Florida and narrowly missed victory in North Carolina. But he also polled as well in Georgia as any Democrat since Jimmy Carter, grabbed 44 percent of the vote in deep-red South Carolina and just under that in Mississippi — despite doing no substantive campaigning in any of those states . . .

. . . Much of the post-election analysis has focused on the demographic crisis facing Republicans among Hispanic voters, particularly in Texas. But the results across other parts of the South, where Latinos remain a single-digit minority, point to separate trends among blacks and whites that may also have big implications for the GOP’s future."


The GOP Lost On Issues, Too

Posted Nov 13, 2012 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger

While much has been made of shifting demographics in this election cycle--and it is clear from exit polling that an uptick in African-American, Hispanic, and young voters and a decrease in white participation from 2008 made a big difference in the outcome--it is easy to forget that on the issues, the GOP lost as well. As NBC News' Mark Murray, reports: "For years, the GOP has branded itself as the party that supports low taxes (especially for the wealthy) and opposes abortion and gay marriage. But according to the exit polls from last week's presidential election, a combined 60% said that tax rates should increase either for everyone or for those making more than $250,000. Just 35% said the tax rates shouldn't increase for anyone."

Murray continues: "What's more, 59% said that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. And by a 49%-to-46% margin, voters said that their states should legally recognize same-sex marriage."

A Decline In White Voters Helped Obama Win

Posted Nov 12, 2012 at 9:16 AM by Maurice Berger

In "The Case of the Missing White Voters, Sean Trende writes: "For Republicans, that despair now comes from an electorate that seems to have undergone a sea change. In the 2008 final exit polls (unavailable online), the electorate was 75 percent white, 12.2 percent African-American, 8.4 percent Latino, with 4.5 percent distributed to other ethnicities. We’ll have to wait for this year’s absolute final exit polls to come in to know the exact estimate of the composition this time, but right now it appears to be pegged at about 72 percent white, 13 percent black, 10 percent Latino and 5 percent 'other.'” PollTrack points out that a +3% drop off of such a large Demographic was very significant in this election, representing one of the most important factors in Obama's victory.

Exit Polls: African American Vote . . .

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 6:30 PM by Maurice Berger

. . . is exactly the same proportion of the electorate as it was in 2008: 13%. This is definitely positive news for camp Obama, especially given the 1% bump of Hispanic voters, who have gone from 9% in 2008 to 10% (not to mention the overall increase in support from 2008 for Obama from this demographic).

Obama Holds A Whopping +50% Lead Among Hispanic Voters

Posted Oct 04, 2012 at 9:17 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll has bad news for the Romney campaign: the survey, by NBC News/WSJ/Telemundo, reports that President Obama now leads Romney among Hispanic voters by a whopping +50% margin--70% to 20%. The survey's background analysis continues: "It appears that Romney's comments that 47% of Americans are dependent on government took a toll on his standing with Hispanics. Romney's favorability score has cratered with the group, with his negatives hitting an all-time high. Fifty-three percent now say they have a negative impression of Romney and just 23% say they have a positive one. That 30-point difference is 17 points worse than in August."

Traditionally, it has been extremely difficult in recent years for GOP candidates for president to win without picking off a sizable amount of the Hispanic vote, in the 35% to 45% range. Not only does Romney poor standing hurt him in the national popular vote, it also makes it very difficult to win purple states with large Hispanic populations, most notably Colorado, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia. Stay tuned.

Hispanic Voters Overwhemingly Affiliate With Democratic Party

Posted Jul 05, 2012 at 9:56 AM by Maurice Berger

While a demographic survey by USA Today/Gallup poll reports that 51% of Hispanics in the United States are self-described independents, while 32% are Democrats and 11% are Republicans, the partisan leanings of these voters tell another story: 52% affiliate with the Democratic Party while only 23% lean towards the GOP, another sign of the increasingly Romney's increasingly uphill battle to win over voters crucial to the outcome of the fall election.

Obama Holds Huge Lead Among Latinos in Swing States

Posted Jul 02, 2012 at 12:16 PM by Maurice Berger

Will the Latino vote provide President Obama with the kind of cushion he needs to assure his reelection. A new Latino Decisions poll suggests that the answer may be yes. Obama is now significantly ahead of Mitt Romney among Latino voters in the key swing states of Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia. The survey reports that "In Florida, Obama is leading Romney by a margin of 53% to 37%, a slight increase from a 50% to 40% lead Obama held over Romney in a January 2012 Latino Decisions/Univision News poll in Florida. In the five states combined Obama lead Romney 63% to 27%, however in southwestern battlegrounds of Arizona, Colorado and Nevada Obama performed even better. In Arizona Obama received 74% to 18% for Romney, in Colorado he was favored by 70% to 22% and in Nevada 69% to 20%. In Virginia, Obama lead 59% to 28% over Romney among Latino registered voters." These numbers suggest that the even ordinarily red state of Arizona could be in play this year.

African American, Hispanic Voter Registration Down Sharply

Posted May 09, 2012 at 8:58 AM by Maurice Berger

In a development that could complicate President Obama's reelection effort, "the number of black and Hispanic registered voters has fallen sharply since 2008, posing a serious challenge to the Obama campaign in an election that could turn on the participation of minority voters," according to a story in the Washington Post. The Post continues: "Voter rolls typically shrink in non-presidential election years, but this is the first time in nearly four decades that the number of registered Hispanics has dropped significantly."

Obama, Romney in Close Race In Arizona

Posted May 02, 2012 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger

Arizona, a reliable red state in presidential elections, holds some good news for President Obama: a new Rocky Mountain Poll in the state finds President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney, 42% to 40% with 18% undecided. An earlier survey, by Merrill/Morrisson Institute reported a two-point lead for Romney, a surprisingly close race (fueled, in part, by Hispanic voters unhappy with the GOP agenda on immigration issues) for a GOP candidate.

The Demographics Of The President's Approval Numbers

Posted Apr 17, 2012 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup has a fascinating demographic snapshot of the president's approval rating, now at 47%. Significantly, he holds a solid majority from his own party (84%), and does extremely well with African American (88%) and Hispanic voters (61%). The demographic breakdown also suggest a few red flags for the President's reelection effort: only 36% of white voters approve of his performance, he polls no better than 38% with voters over the age of 65%, and--perhaps most significantly--his standing among independents hovers at 40%. The good news for the administration: approval numbers do not always reflect voter sentiment in a general election. Obama's fares much better with independents, for example, when pitted against his likely GOP challenger, Mitt Romney. Stay tuned.



President Obama Way Ahead With Hispanic Voters

Posted Mar 09, 2012 at 3:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A new national Fox News Latino poll of likely Latino voters reports that "73% approve of Obama’s performance in office, with over half those questioned looking favorably upon his handling of the healthcare debate and the economy, at 66% and 58% respectively. . . . the poll shows that the overwhelming choice among likely Latino voters is President Obama. In head-to-head match-ups none of the GOP candidates would garner more than 14 percent of the Latino vote come November." If these numbers can be sustained, PollTrack believes that it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for a GOP candidate to make up the difference. The poll is very good news for the President's reelection effort and a warning to Republicans.

Big Jump Nationally In Hispanic Population

Posted Mar 31, 2011 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger

According to National Journal, "the Hispanic population surged 43% in the last decade and Hispanics now make up more than 16% of the nation's population." As the Journal notes, this jump could have enormous implications, both for the Democratic and Republican parties: "Every state in the nation saw a surge in Latinos, and traditional Latino gateways along the border still have the highest percentage, other states also saw rapid Hispanic growth: There are now 17  states where Hispanics make up at least 10 percent of the population, including Utah, Rhode Island and Kansas. In five states, Hispanics now account for at least a quarter of the population. In states such as Texas and Arizona, that could be good news for Democrats, who have been benefitting from a Hispanic backlash against Republicans' tough rhetoric on illegal immigration. Exit polls indicated that President Obama got two-thirds of the Hispanic vote in the 2008 election."

Latino Voters Support Obama, But Up To A Point

Posted Feb 17, 2011 at 1:11 AM by Maurice Berger

A impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll reports that President Obama's approval rating among Latino voters is now up to an impressive 70%, after decreasing last year. Surprisingly, however, just 43% of Latino voters say they are sure they will vote for Obama next year.The latter number continues to suggest an opening for the GOP among Latino voters in the upcoming cycle.

President's Support Among Hispanics Remains High

Posted Jul 28, 2010 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger

A new AP/Univision poll reports that President Obama's stadning among Hispanics remains high, with 57% approving of his job performance. By contrast, his aggregate approval rating among all Americans, according to PollTrack's latest numbers, hovers at around 44%.

Republicans Could Have Serious Problem Come November

Posted May 25, 2010 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

Before Republicans start celebrating what some predict may be a massive victory in November, they may want to take notice of one sobering phenomenon: In Colorado and Arizona, Public Policy Polling reports that Hispanic voters are now swinging dramatically towards Democrats in the wake of Arizona's new immigration law. PPP continues: "Hispanics in the Mountain West are leaning much more strongly toward the Democrats since the Arizona law was passed. The big question then becomes whether there are white voters who are going to go Republican this fall who wouldn't have if that bill hadn't been passed. We don't see any evidence of that happening yet." This trend could easily shift into other states with significant Hispanic populations, effecting very close race in states as disparate as California, Ohio, and Florida, not to mention Colorado and Arizona. Stay tuned. This could be the sleeper phenomenon of the 2010 cycle.

Sotomayor Enjoys Broad Support Within Obama Coalition

Posted Jun 05, 2009 at 1:54 AM by Maurice Berger

The very coalition that assured and strengthened Obama's win last November is now standing strongly behind the president's nominee for the US Supreme Court, Sonia Sotomayor: Boosted by large black, Hispanic and Jewish majorities, American voters approve--55% to 25%--President Obama's nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the U.S. Supreme Court, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. Back in November, African-American support for Obama was well over 90%, Jewish support was just under 80%, and Hispanic support near the 70% mark.

Why Obama Won: Building A Powerful Coalition

Posted Nov 10, 2008 at 2:14 AM by Maurice Berger

When it comes to the issue of how "race" played out on Election Day, one thing is certain: if the outcome was determined only by white people, John McCain would be president, by a landslide. Indeed, Obama garnered just 43% of the white vote to McCain's 57%, a 14% deficit that was only marginally better than Kerry or Gore's total and about the same as Bill Clinton. The Democrat was able to count on four groups for his impressive victory. Preeminently, the intensity and unprecedented numbers of African-American voters made the difference for Obama, especially in the closest fought states, such as Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio. This support was almost singlehandedly responsible for the Democrat's ability to pick off the true-red states of NC and IN. The black vote also deepened and widened Obama's victories in scores of Kerry-blue states, from New York to California. Hispanic voters represented another important asset: Obama led McCain among Hispanics 67% to 30%, a 10% increase in Democrat support from 2004. in his home state, McCain trailed Obama among Hispanics 61% to 36%, making that race surprisingly close. The Hispanic vote was crucial to Obama in the southwest, handing him easy victories in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. And in Florida, where Cuban-Americans have traditionally tilted the Hispanic vote towards Republicans in virtually every presidential cycle, Obama won 57% to 42%. Another religious minority also played a key role in several states: Jewish-Americans, who gave the Democrat nearly 80% of their vote. (Jews are one of the demographic groups most loyal to the Democratic Party.) The Jewish vote in South Florida was crucial to handing the Republican leaning state to Obama. (Another state where the Jewish vote made a big difference: Ohio). Finally, through amazing outreach to the 18 to 29-year old demographic, the Obama campaign was able to boost the turnout of younger voters by more than 3 million, enough to hand the Democrat such razor close states as North Carolina and Indiana. Together, these four groups represented not only a winning coalition, but a shift in the power-base of the national electorate, allowing racial and religious minorities and young people to make a profound difference in the outcome of Election 2008.

Are New, Hispanic, and Younger Voters Under-performing?

Posted Oct 30, 2008 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

An analysis of early voting data in Nevada suggests that in that state, at least, three of Obama's key constituents are under-performing. The Las Vegas Review-Journal writes: "As Nevadans continue to flock to the polls, turnout among those three groups is lagging, at least in the early going. While turnout statewide was nearly 25 percent through Sunday, it was just 20 percent among Hispanic voters, 14 percent among voters under 30 and 15 percent among those who didn't vote in the last three elections, according to an analysis of state early voting records through Sunday prepared by America Votes, an organization that works to mobilize voters." Such under-voting could be a problem for Obama in the most competitive and closely fought swing states, including skewing likely voter models in polls in the direction of voters who may not show up in anticipated numbers. 

Gallup: Hispanic Voters Divided By Religion

Posted Oct 23, 2008 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A Gallup survey released on Tuesday reports that while Hispanic voters support Barack Obama by a wide margin over John McCain, there is a significant difference in the Hispanic vote by religion: "Catholic Hispanics support Obama by a 39-point margin, while Hispanics who are Protestant or who identify with some other non-Catholic Christian faith support Obama by a much smaller 10-point margin." Obama's leads overall among all Hispanic registered voters by 62% to 30%. It is doubtful that this disparity will impact on the outcome of the election, unless, of course, it is very close.

McCain In Trouble With Hispanic Voters

Posted Oct 10, 2008 at 5:40 AM by Maurice Berger

John McCain, who bucked his own party to support controversial immigration reform legislation--a bill embraced by Hispanic voters--is now struggling with this all-important Demographic, falling well below the level of support that helped lift President Bush to the White House. A Gallup poll conducted last week reported a staggering 42% national lead for Obama among Hispanics: 64% to 26%. This deficit is especially detrimental to the Republican in key battlegrounds with large and influential Hispanic populations--including Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia--states where he is now behind or tied.