Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

The Most and Least Trusted State Governments?

Posted Apr 07, 2014 at 8:38 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Gallup poll reports that Illinois tops the list for state residents with the lowest trust in their state government:  “llinois’ position at the bottom of the list … is not surprising, given that its last two governors, Rod Blagojevich and George Ryan, were sentenced to jail for crimes committed while in office.” Here is Gallup's chart for the most and least trusted states. 

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Romney Ahead In Illinois Primary

Posted Mar 19, 2012 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Two Polls suggest a Romney victory in tomorrow's Illinois primary. We Ask America reports that Romney leads the race with 37%, followed by Rick Santorum at 31%, Newt Gingrich at 14% and Ron Paul at 8%. Rasmussen shows a wider advantage for Romney, who leads with 41%, followed by Santorum at 32%, Gingrich at 14% and Paul at 7%.

Emanuel Breaks 50% Mark In Chicago Mayoralty

Posted Jan 31, 2011 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

The latest poll out of Chicago shows former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel poised to win the race for mayor outright, without a runoff. The We Ask America poll shows Rahm Emanuel at 52%, with Gery Chico at 14% and Carol Moseley-Braun at 11%.

Chicago Mayoralty 2011: Rahm Emanuel Far Ahead

Posted Jan 25, 2011 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

Although Rahm Emanuel was just knocked off the ballot in the Chicago mayoral race by a Illinois court for residency issues, a new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll reports that he is considerably ahead. He is also closing in on the majority he needs to win next month's Chicago mayoral race without a run off. Emanuel leads the pack with 44%, followed by Carol Mosely Braun at 21%, Gery Chico at 16%, Miguel del Valle at 7% and 9% undecided.

Races To Watch In 2011

Posted Jan 14, 2011 at 12:00 AM by Maurice Berger

Yes, 2011 is defintely a quiet year for electoral activity. But an important one. The 2012 campaigns--from president and congress--will actually start in 2011. So much to watch, especially as we near the first GOP presidential primaries in early-2012. And we'll also be following a few key, "off-year" elections, including:

Chicago mayoral race

Iowa Republican presidential straw poll (The Republican Party of Iowa's 2011 Iowa Straw Poll, set for Aug. 14 at the Iowa State Center in Ames)

Kentucky governor's race

Mississippi governor's race

Dallas mayoral race

Phoenix mayoral race

Louisiana governor's race



Emanuel Holds Large Lead In Chicago Mayoral Race

Posted Jan 10, 2011 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger

A Teamsters/Anzalone Liszt poll in Chicago reports that Rahm Emanuel holds a large lead in theChicago mayoral race. Emanuel leads with 42%, Carol Moseley Braun is at 26%, Gery Chico at 10% and Miguel Del Valle at 7%.

Rahm Emanuel Holds Huge Lead in Chicago Mayor's Race

Posted Dec 27, 2010 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

Is there a political life for Rahm Emanuel after leaving the White House? The answer would appear to be yes according to a new We Ask America poll shows him with a hefty lead over the rest of the field in the election to become the next mayor of Chicago. Emanuel leads with 44%, followed by Gery Chico at 12%, Carol Moseley Braun at 8%, Danny Davis at 7%, Miguel Del Valle at 6% and James Meeks at 4%.

Rahm Emanuel Leads In Chicago Mayoral Race

Posted Nov 30, 2010 at 5:18 AM by Maurice Berger

How is Rahm Emanuel doing in his race for Mayor of Chicago? Will he return to elective office only months after leaving the White House? A new We Ask America poll suggests that Emanuel is in a good position. In the upcoming race for mayor--which is on February 22, 2011--he lead with 39%, followed by former Sen. Carol Mosely Braun at 12%, Gerry Chico at 9%. Rep. Danny Davis at 7% and 19% still undecided. Nevertheless, if no candidate receives at least 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held April 5.

43% of Americans Think Obama Transition Did Nothing Wrong In Blagojevich Scandal

Posted Dec 22, 2008 at 7:05 AM by Maurice Berger


A new CNN/Opinion Research survey indicates Americans are split on whether aides to President-elect Barack Obama did something inappropriate in their contacts with embattled Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich: 12% of those questioned say Obama aides did something illegal, with another 36% feeling Obama aides didn't act illegally but did do something unethical.43% say no Obama aides did anything seriously wrong."

Nationally Voters Suspect Obama Team Involvement in Blagojevich Scandal

Posted Dec 16, 2008 at 5:13 AM by Maurice Berger

If voters in Illinois are willing to give the Obama team the benefit of the dount vis-a-vis the Blagojevich scandal, nationally the president-elect is not doing as well. According to a Rasmussen Reports poll of registered voters, 45% "say it is likely President-elect Obama or one of his top campaign aides was involved in the unfolding Blagojevich scandal in Illinois, including 23% who say it is Very Likely. Just 11% say it is not at all likely, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken Thursday and Friday nights." A new ABC News/Washington Post poll reports that a "tepid 51% say Obama’s done enough to explain any discussions his representatives may have had with Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who’s accused of seeking bribes in his selection of Obama’s successor. The rest either say Obama’s not done enough (34%) or are unsure (14% more)."

Illinois Voters Are Uncertain About Obama's Involvement In The Blagojevich Scandal

Posted Dec 16, 2008 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger

The voters of President-Elect Obama's homestate of Illinois remain uncertain about his relationship to embattled Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich: According to a new statewide survey of registered voters, 32% say there is no way that the incoming president was involved in the Blagojevich corruption case, even as questions mount over whether an Obama adviser discussed the president-elect’s vacant Senate seat with the Illinois governor or his staff. "Only 13% say it is Very Likely that the president-elect was involved, with another 13% saying it is Somewhat Likely, according to a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Illinois voters on Wednesday night. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say it’s Not Very Likely, with six percent (6%) undecided." 

Obama's Illinois Senate Seat Replacement: Voters Want Jesse L. Jackson, Jr.

Posted Dec 05, 2008 at 5:08 AM by Maurice Berger

Who will replace Barack Obama as Illinois' Juinior Senator? The task will be left to Rod Blagojevich, Illinois’ Democratic governor whose own approval numbers remain among the lowest of state chief executives in the country. According to a new survey of Illinois voters, "Rep. Jesse L. Jackson, Jr. is the clear favorite . . . . among the party’s top five candidates to succeed Barack Obama as the state’s junior U.S. senator." Rasmussen Reports hancaps the hypothetical race as follows: Jackson, a "Chicago congressman who has been openly campaigning for the job has the support of 36% of Illinois Democrats . . . Tammy Duckworth, director of Illinois’ Department of Veterans Affairs, is next with the backing of 29%, followed by state Attorney General Lisa Madigan with 17%. Another congressman mentioned for the post, Rep. Jan Schakowksy, has eight percent (8%) support, with Emil Jones, president of the Illinois Senate, at two percent (2%). Just seven percent (7%) of Democrats are not sure which candidate they prefer." Blagojevich has promised to appoint Obama’s successor during the Christmas holidays.

FINAL Daily Tracking Poll Average: Obama, +6.1%, 51.6% to 45.5%

Posted Nov 04, 2008 at 4:29 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's FINAL election day daily tracking poll average puts Obama in the lead by +6.1%--51.6% to 45.5%. One poll indicates that undecided voters have moved sharply in McCain's direction (GWU/Battleground-Tarrance model), another indicates a big shift of undecided and persuadable voters for Obama (IBD/TIPP). One thing to consider: with Obama racking up enormous margins in many of the nation's most populous states (CA, NY, IL, MA, for example), leads as high as +25% or more, as well as many of the Kerry-blue states--and McCain taking a number of red states by very modest margins--this final tracking number may not reflect the relative closeness in a number of the remaining swing and battleground states.

Daily Tracking Average: Obama Bumps Up An Additional +1.6%

Posted Nov 03, 2008 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger

Today's daily tracking poll average indicates a comfortable national aggregate lead of +6.6% for the Democrat, 50.6% to 44%. Still, with Obama up as much as +25% in states with some of the largest populations--such as CA, NY, MA, IL, MI--this national number may not reflect the relativeness closeness of the race in several key battleground states, including OH, NC, and FL. Much of today's polling continues to indicate an unusually large bloc of undecided or still persuadable voters. IBD/TIPP puts the figure at an amazing 9.5% undecided. A just issued CBS News periodic poll indicates a 6% undecided block. And Rasmussen still indicates that 10% of voters remain uncertain, lean to one candidate, or intend to vote for a third party candidate. The large undecided bloc that continues to register in some polls is unusually high the day before a national cycle, particularly one with as much voter enthusiasm as this one. Where will these voters wind up, if and when they vote?