Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Corrected: Latest from Votecastr: Eight for Eight Clinton

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 6:05 PM by Maurice Berger

According to Votecastr, which calculates approximate votes tallies on an ongoing basis through election day, Clinton is leading in eight out of eight key battleground states:

Florida: Clinton 49% Trump 45%

Iowa: Clinton 47% Trump 46% 

Colorado: Clinton 47% Trump 42%

Nevada: Clinton 47% Trump 44%

New Hampshire: Clinton 47% Trump 45%

Ohio: Clinton 46% Trump 45%

Pennsylvania: Clinton 48% Trump 45%

Wisconsin: Clinton 49% Trump 42%

Exit polling is provided by Votecastr (and Edison, which is used by all other media outlets). Their tally updates all day as voting patterns change. The accuracy of their novel methodology is, of course, yet to be proved.

Latest from Votecastr

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 4:43 PM by Maurice Berger

According to Votecastr, which calculates approximate votes tallies on an ongoing basis through election day, Clinton is leading infive  out of seven key battleground states. Over the past few houses, their tallies have shown the race tightening somewhat. It is also unclear whether they have fixed their calculation problem to include all three voter tiers--early, pre-election polling, and election day voting:

Florida: Clinton 48% Trump 45% D+3

Iowa: Trump 46% Clinton 45% R+1

Colorado: Clinton 46% Trump 43% D+3

Nevada: Clinton 46% Trump 45% D+1

Ohio: Clinton 46% Trump 45% R+1

Pennsylvania: Clinton 48% Trump 45% D+3

Wisconsin: Clinton 48% Trump 43% D+5

These numbers are based only on election day voting numbers. So we'll need to wait until they're reconciled with early vote analysis and pre-election polling. Exit polling is provided by Votecastr (and Edison, which is used by all other media outlets). Their tally updates all day as voting patterns change. The accuracy of their novel methodology is, of course, yet to be proved. And complete tallys are not, as yet, available.

CORRECTED: Clinton Leading in Seven of Eight Battlegrounds?

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 2:36 PM by Maurice Berger

According to Votecastr, which calculates approximate votes tallies on an ongoing basis through election day, Clinton is leading in seven out of eight key battleground states:

Florida: Clinton 49% Trump 45%

Iowa: Trump 46% Clinton 45%

Colorado: Clinton 47% Trump 42%

Nevada: Clinton 47% Trump 44%

New Hampshire: Clinton 47% Trump 43%

Ohio: Clinton 46% Trump 45%

Pennsylvania: Clinton 48% Trump 44%

Wisconsin: Clinton 49% Trump 43%

This numbers are based only on election day voting numbers. So we'll need to wait until they're reconciled with early vote analysis and pre-election polling. Exit polling is provided by Votecastr (and Edison, which is used by all other media outlets). Their tally updates all day as voting patterns change. The accuracy of their novel methodology is, of course, yet to be proved. And complete tallys are not, as yet, available.

PollTrack Prediction: Iowa GOP & Democratic Caucus

Posted Jan 31, 2016 at 1:00 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's Prediction for the outcome of the GOP and Democratic Iowa Caucuses:


GOP:

WINNER: Donald Trump

2nd Place; Ted Cruz

3rd Place: Marco Rubio

 

Democratic

WINNER: Hillary Clinton

2nd Place: Bernie Sanders

3rd Place: Martin O'Malley

 

25 January Ranking of 2016 GOP Iowa Caucus

Posted Jan 25, 2016 at 9:49 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's ranking of the Iowa GOP Caucus:

1. Donald Trump

2. Ted Cruz

3. Marco Rubio

4. Jeb Bush

5. Ben Carson

 

14 January Ranking of 2016 Democratic Iowa Caucus

Posted Jan 14, 2016 at 4:25 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's ranking of the Iowa Democratic Caucus:

1. Hillary Clinton

2. Bernie Sanders

3. Martin O'Malley

FINAL US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 47 IND 1 GOP 52

Posted Nov 03, 2014 at 6:23 PM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 47   IND 1  GOP 52

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

 

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Peters (D)

NH: Saheen (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

 

Leans Independent

KS: Orman (I)

 

LEANS GOP

AK: Sullivan (R)

AR: Cotton (R)

GA: Perdue (R)

IA: Ernst (R)

CO: Gardner (R)

KS: Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Cassidy (R)

SD: Rounds (R) 

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 47 TOSS UP 1 IND 1 GOP 51

Posted Nov 01, 2014 at 8:05 PM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 47    TOSS UP 1   IND 1  GOP 51

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

 

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Peters (D)

NH: Saheen (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

 

TOSS UP

 

GA: Open

 

Leans Independent

KS: Orman (I)

 

LEANS GOP

AK: Sullivan (R)

AR: Cotton (R)

IA: Ernst (R)

CO: Gardner (R)

KS: Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Cassidy (R)

SD: Rounds (R) 

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: Results From Iowa Spell Bad News For Democrats

Posted Nov 01, 2014 at 7:51 PM by Maurice Berger

The latest poll out of Iowa from the Des Moines Register has bad news for the Democratic effort to retain control of the U.S. Senate. Given the current landscape of races across the nation, the party that wins Iowa is likely to control the Senate. The Des Moines Register poll, one of the most accurate polls in the nation, has Republican Joni Ernst up by +7. PollTrack's average for the state, while very close, shows momentum moving away from Democrat Bruce Braley over the past two weeks. PollTrack now rates this race Leans Republican. 

 

The other key race in Colorado appears to be slipping away from the Democrats, as well. In PollTrack's average for the state, Democrat Udall trails by over -3%. And according to news reports, the GOP has a 100,000 vote advantage in early balloting. A bad sign for the Democrats. 

 

At this point, it looks like 47 DEM 1-IND 52 GOP according to PollTrack's calculation. The one race that could shift back to the Democrats, Georgia, remains uncertain, the outcome dependent on African American turnout. Another race, Alaska, is hard to gauge, given the paucity of high quality polling. If both races were to break for the Democrats and the independent candidate were to prevail in Kansas and agree to caucus with the Democrats, a 50/50 tie is still possible, with the Vice President securing the upper chamber for the Democrats. 

 

As it now stands, GOP control of the Senate appears likely. More on Sunday and Monday. 

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 47 TOSS UP 2 IND 1 GOP: 50

Posted Nov 01, 2014 at 8:36 AM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 47    TOSS UP 2   IND 1  GOP: 50

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

 

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Peters (D)

NH: Saheen (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

 

TOSS UP

 

GA: Open

IA: Open

 

Leans Independent

KS: Orman (I)

 

LEANS GOP

AK: Sullivan (R)

AR: Cotton (R)

CO: Gardner (R)

KS: Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Cassidy (R)

SD: Rounds (R) 

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 47 TOSS UP 3 IND 1 GOP: 49

Posted Oct 29, 2014 at 11:07 AM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 47    TOSS UP 3   IND 1  GOP: 49

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

 

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Peters (D)

NH: Saheen (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

 

Leans Independent

KS: Orman (I)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Cotton (R)

CO: Gardner (R)

KS: Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Cassidy (R)

SD: Rounds (R) 

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 48 TOSS UP 2 IND 1 GOP: 49

Posted Oct 26, 2014 at 2:58 PM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 48    TOSS UP 2   IND 1  GOP: 49

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

GA: Nunn (D)

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Peters (D)

NH: Saheen (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

 IA: Open

 

Leans Independent

KS: Orman (I)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Cotton (R)

CO: Gardner (R)

KS: Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Cassidy (R)

SD: Rounds (R) 

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 48 TOSS UP 3 IND 1 GOP: 48

Posted Oct 24, 2014 at 1:05 PM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 48    TOSS UP 3   IND 1  GOP: 48

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

GA: Nunn (D)

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Peters (D)

NH: Saheen (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

 

 

IA: Open

 

 

 

SD: Rounds (R)

 

Leans Independent

KS: Orman (I)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Cotton (R)

CO: Gardner (R)

KS: Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Cassidy (R)

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 45 TOSS UP 8 GOP: 47

Posted Oct 17, 2014 at 1:07 PM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 45    TOSS UP 8     GOP: 47

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Open

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

CO: Udall (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

LA: Landrieu (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

NH: Shaheen (D)

SD: Rounds (R)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Pryor (D)

KS: Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

 

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 45 TOSS UP 10 GOP: 45

Posted Oct 14, 2014 at 12:46 PM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 46    TOSS UP 9     GOP: 45

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Open

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

CO: Udall (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

KS Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Landrieu (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

NH: Shaheen (D)

SD: Rounds (R)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Pryor (D)

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 46 TOSS UP 9 GOP: 45

Posted Oct 09, 2014 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 46    TOSS UP 9     GOP: 45

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Open

NH: Shaheen(D)

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

CO: Udall (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

KS Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Landrieu (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

SD: Rounds (R)


 

LEANS GOP

AR: Pryor (D)

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 46 TOSS UP 9 GOP: 45

Posted Oct 08, 2014 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 46    TOSS UP 9     GOP: 45

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Open

NC: Hagan (D)

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

CO: Udall (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

KS Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Landrieu (D)

NH: Shaheen (D)

SD: Rounds (R)


 

LEANS GOP

AR: Pryor (D)

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 46 TOSS UP 8 GOP: 46

Posted Oct 07, 2014 at 11:41 AM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 46    TOSS UP 8     GOP: 46

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

MN: Franken

MI: Open

NC: Hagan (D)

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

CO: Udall (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

KS Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Landrieu (D)

NH: Shaheen (D)


 

LEANS GOP

AR: Pryor (D)

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 46 TOSS UP 7 GOP: 47

Posted Oct 06, 2014 at 10:30 AM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 46    TOSS UP 7     GOP: 47

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

MN: Franken

MI: Open

NC: Hagan (D)

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

CO: Udall (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

KS Roberts (R)

LA: Landrieu (D)

NH: Shaheen (D)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Pryor (D)

KY: McConnell (R)

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

IA US Senate: Republican Now Ahead

Posted Oct 02, 2014 at 9:36 AM by Maurice Berger

In a finding that may spell serious trouble for Democrats hoping to hold onto the US Senate, a new poll by the Des Moines Register in Iowa reports that Republican Joni Ernst holds a +6% lead over Democrat Bruce Braley in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 38%. A few months ago, this contest was seen as an easy victory for Democrats.

2014 U.S. SENATE RACE RATING: DEM 47 GOP 47

Posted Sep 30, 2014 at 10:39 AM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 47    TOSS UP 6     GOP: 47

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

MN: Franken

MI: Open

NC: Hagan (D)

NH: Shaheen (D)

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

CO: Udall (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

KS Roberts (R)

LA: Landrieu (D)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Pryor (D)

KY: McConnell (R)

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

 

Iowa US Senate: Deadlocked

Posted Sep 23, 2014 at 8:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen in Iowa reports that Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley are now tied in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 43%.

Mitt Romney In 2016?

Posted Jul 31, 2014 at 8:39 AM by Maurice Berger

In polls conducted in the early primary states of South Carolina, New Hampshire and Iowa, Vox Populi Polling reports that more than 70% of GOP primary voters would be open to a Mitt Romney presidential run in 2016.

Iowa US Senate: Deadlocked

Posted Jul 16, 2014 at 4:48 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by NBC News/Marist in Iowa reports that Democrat Bruce Braley and Repu Joni Ernst are tied in the race for U.S. Senate, 43% to 43%.

Iowa US Senate: Republican In The Lead

Posted Jun 09, 2014 at 12:19 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll suggests that the Democratic candidate for Iowa US Senate, recently in the lead, may now be in trouble. The survey, by Loras College, reports that Republican Joni Ernst now leads Democrat Bruce Braley, 48% to 42%.

Iowa: Presidential Approval At New Low

Posted Mar 20, 2014 at 6:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Des Moines Register in Iowa reports President Obama's job approval rating in the state "has ticked down yet again to 36%, setting a record low for his presidency."

2016 Prrsidential Race: Who Do Iowans Prefer?

Posted Dec 17, 2013 at 8:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll out from the Des Moines Register reports that Rep. Paul Ryan "is wildly popular here with a 73% favorable rating, a surprise finding that reveals he's at the forefront of potential 2016 GOP presidential candidates in the nation's kickoff voting state." The Democratic horse race shows an even clearer favorite in a state that registers its preferences in the party nominating process earlier than any other: Ryans' popularity "isn't as striking as the overwhelming affinity Iowa Democrats have for Hillary Clinton, with 89% saying they have a positive opinion of her. Just 7% of voting-age Democrats have a negative impression the former U.S. secretary of state and U.S. senator from New York."

Obama's Popularity Falters In Iowa

Posted Oct 18, 2013 at 7:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A Des Moines Register Iowa Poll reports that the President's job approval rating is faltering on the state: 58% of Iowa adults say they disapprove of the job he's doing; just 39% approve."    

Will Democrats Hold On To The US Senate In 2014?

Posted Feb 14, 2013 at 9:04 AM by Maurice Berger

Will Democrats hold on to their majority in the US Senate in 2014? The answer may rest with the quality--and popularity--of the candidates advanced by each party. One place where Democratic hopes have risen is Iowa, home of retiring Democratic Senator, Tom Harkin. A new poll from the Des Moines Register reports that a majority of voters think U.S. secretary of agriculture Tom Vilsack would be an appealing Senate candidate, 56% to 35%. Can he beat a GOP challenger in one of the nation's most purple states. Remarks pollster Ann Selzer: "This is the kind of poll finding that launches campaigns."Stay tuned.

How Did Obama Capaign Gauge The Mood Of The Electorate?

Posted Nov 29, 2012 at 9:24 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is a fascinating analysis of how the Obama campaign gauged its relative strengths and weakness through internal polls. Mark Blumenthal focuses on the Obama campaign polling operation and notes they their view of the state of the race was local rather than national. Rather than taking nation-wide polls, the campaign
limited its surveys to 11 battleground states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin), conducting them at regular intervals throughout the campaign. Campaign manager Jim Messina says this gave him a deeper understanding of "how we were doing, where we were doing it, where we were moving -- which is why I knew that most of the public polls you were seeing were completely ridiculous."

Why Michigan Matters

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:09 PM by Maurice Berger

That Michigan wall called quickly--suggesting a substantial lead in the state for Obama--matters. Given the voting pattern of neighboring states, each reflective of a regional wave of demographics, voting patterns, and history, a big win in Michigan bodes well for Obama in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and even, to an extent, Ohio. This is the first sign that the president's "Midwest firewall" may, in fact, be holding.

Tightening National Race?

Posted Oct 09, 2012 at 8:02 AM by Maurice Berger

Based on national polling out today--a full 5-days after the first presidential debate--PollTrack is seeing a discernible tightening of the race. We are waiting for additional polling in the swing states (due over the next few days) to better understand whether the tightening of the race is statistical noise (or simple fall out of the first debate) or a genuine drop in the president's support and/or an increase in Mitt Romney's support. PollTrack suspects at this point that the tightening may be real, and possibly durable. As such, tightening of swing state polls has resulted in substantive race ratings in Colorado, Iowa, Florida and Virginia, now rated as Too-Close-To-Call on Today's  Map--a dynamic swing from a week ago when all were rated Leaning Democratic.

Des Moines Register Poll: Obama Up By +4% In Iowa

Posted Oct 01, 2012 at 9:46 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll--this one from the well-regarded and traditionally very accurate Des Moines Register, which shows the president up by +4%, Obama 49%, Romney 45%--supports PollTrack's decision to move Iowa on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic

Today's Map: Iowa Moves From TCTC to Leaning Democratic

Posted Sep 27, 2012 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger

With a new poll by Public Policy Polling in Iowa showing a modest lead for the President over his GOP challenger, but also over the 50%-mark --it's now Obama 51%, Romney 44% according to the poll,--PollTrack has decided to move the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call, where it has been from the beginning of this election cycle, to Leaning Democratic. Since the PPP survey tends to trend slightly Democratic, PollTrack will keep a close eye on fresh polling in the state.

Close Race In Iowa

Posted Jun 27, 2012 at 11:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by We Ask America reports a very close race in the presidential race in Iowa (with many voters still undecided). In the poll, President Obama leads Mitt Romney by +1%--45% to 44%.

Marist Poll: Close Race in Three Battleground States

Posted Jun 05, 2012 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

A series of polls in three key battleground states by NBC News-Marist College report an extremely close race between President Obama and Mitt Romney.

Iowa: Romney, 44%  Obama, 44%

Colorado: Obama, 46%  Romney, 45%

Nevada: Obama, 48% Romney, 46%

Today's Map: Iowa Now Leaning Republican

Posted Feb 21, 2012 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger

Although President Obama's standing in many of the swing states--including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio--have show improvement in recent weeks, his standing in one state, Iowa, is actually in decline. A poll by the Des Moines Register in Iowa shows the president trailing three of the four Republican candidates in head-to-head match-ups: Ron Paul, who leads Obama by +7%, 49% to 42%. Rick Santorum leads 48% to 44%. Mitt Romney leads Obama 46% to 44%. The president defeats only Newt Gingrich, 51% to 37%. PollTrack moves Iowa on Today's Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Republican.

Romney More Electable Against President Obama?

Posted Jan 31, 2012 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A new USAToday/Gallup survey of the dozen states likely to determine the outcome of November's election--Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin--concludes that Mitt Romney is the "GOP contender with the best chance of denying Obama a second term." The poll reports that "in a head-to-head race, Romney leads Obama by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 48%-47% . . . But Obama leads Gingrich, 54%-40%. The president's standing against him has risen nine points since early December; Gingrich has fallen by eight. Gingrich fares less well than Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who trails Obama by seven points, 50%-43%, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who also trails by seven points, 51%-44%."

Has Iowa Helped Santorum In New Hampshire?

Posted Jan 05, 2012 at 2:01 AM by Maurice Berger

Has Rick Santorum's strong second place showing in Iowa helped him in the upcoming New Hampshire primary? And new poll by CNN  suggests the answer may be only marginally, reporting that the Iowa caucus results appear to have changed few minds in New Hampshire, at least among likely GOP primary voters who watched the caucus results on Tuesday evening. The poll shows Mitt Romney with a staggering 47% lead, with Ron Paul at 17% and Jon Huntsman at 13%. As for Rick Santorum: the poll reports a modest, but by no means consequential, bump for him among Iowa caucus-watchers: he's now at 10%, from 5% a month earlier.

Polls Report Tight Iowa Race, With Romney in The Lead

Posted Jan 02, 2012 at 4:29 PM by Maurice Berger

A survey in Iowa from Public Policy Polling survey, conducted Saturday and Sunday, reports a virtual three-way tie in advance of the Iowa caucuses. In the poll, Ron Paul leads with 20 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 19 percent and Rick Santorum at 18 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll in Iowa shows Romney with an insignificant lead; he's at 23%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 18%, Newt Gingrich at 16%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. And a survey by American Research Group shows a slightly larger lead for Romney, with 22%, followed by Paul at 17%, Santorum at 16% and Gingrich at 15%.

Romney, Paul Top Iowa Poll, With Santorum Coming On Strong

Posted Jan 02, 2012 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey from the highly respect--and often very accurate--Des Moines Register reports that Mitt Romney now leads with 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7%. The bog news may well be Santorum's surprisingly strong showing: "If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21%, pushing Paul to third, at 18%. Romney remains the same, at 24%."

Election 2012: Close Race In Iowa?

Posted Dec 30, 2011 at 2:33 AM by Maurice Berger

A series of new polls suggests that the race to win the GOP Iowa Caucus may indeed be very close. A survey by InsiderAdvantage reports that the race is deadlocked, with Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul tied at 17% support each. Rick Santorum, whose numbers in Iowa have been rising in recent days, comes in at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 12%, Rick Perry at 11% and Jon Huntsman at 3%. Two other polls paint a similar picture of a very close race: American Research Group poll shows Romney leading with 22%, followed by Gingrich at 17%, Paul at 16% and Santorum at 11%; Rasmussen reports that Romney edgies Paul, 23% to 22%, with Santorum at 16% and Gingrich and Perry at 13% each.

PPP Survey: Paul Leads In Iowa

Posted Dec 28, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Ron Paul maintains a modest lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 24% to 20%, with Newt Gingrich in third place at 13%. Michele Bachmann comes in at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Gallup Tracking: Gingrich Continues To Hold slight National Lead

Posted Dec 27, 2011 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

According to the latest tracking poll from Gallup Newt Gingrich continues to hold a slight lead nationally among Republican voters with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Santorum at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 1%. Factoring in other polls, PollTrack now believes that Gingrich's advantage nationally will not hold through the Iowa caucus on 8 January. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Three GOP Candidates Bunched At The Top

Posted Dec 26, 2011 at 2:21 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll released by American Research Group in Iowa reports a crowded field at top, with three candidates virtually tied for the lead: Ron Paul leads the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 20% and Newt Gingrich at 19%. As for the rest, they're all in the singles digits, with Rick Perry coming in at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 6% and Rick Santorum at 4%.

Election 2012: Can Romney Wrap It Up Early

Posted Dec 23, 2011 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

With the implosion of yet another GOP candidate (Newt Gingrich) and the ascendance of Mitt Romney to the top of the pack in Iowa, the question now on the table is whether Romney will win the nomination and wrap it up early. With several polls reporting a significant lead for Romney in New Hampshire--and now leading in Iowa (A Rasmussen survey in Iowa shows Romney leading Ron Paul, 25% to 20%)--PollTrack thinks that this could be a possibility, though Gingrich continues to lead in other early (and more conservative) voting states, such as South Carolina and (marginally) Florida. Stay tuned.

(The Rasmussen Poll also shows Newt Gingrich at 17%, Rick Perry at 10%, Rick Santorum at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 4%.)

Election 2012: Iowa Too Close To Call

Posted Dec 22, 2011 at 3:13 AM by Maurice Berger

With Newt Gingrich the newest GOP contender to implode in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, the race for the Iowa caucus is now too close to call. A poll from We Ask America reports a very competitive race the Iowa. Ron Paul leads with 19%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Gingrich at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 11%, Rick Santorum at 9% and Jon Huntsman at 4%. Another poll, this one from Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG shows a very close race for the top two contenders--Paul with 28%, followed by Gingrich at 25%--with Romney further behind at 18%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

Is the Momentum Shifting Back To Romney

Posted Dec 16, 2011 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger

As his opponents continue to barrage Newt Gingrich with negative soundbites, can the ex-congressman maintain his momentum. A poll released last week in Iowa, by Rasmussen suggests that the tide may be turning once again the the quest for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. The poll now reports that Mitt Romney has recaptured back the lead with 23%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Ron Paul at 18%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 5%. Given the strong, religious-conservative bent of the Iowa Republican caucus-goers, this trend, if sustained, could be really big news.

Election 2012: Internal GOP Polls Show Gingrich Slipping in Iowa

Posted Dec 15, 2011 at 1:47 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Politico, "A week-long blitz of negative ads from Ron Paul and "Restore Our Future," the pro-Mitt Romney super PAC, have taken a toll on Newt Gingrich's standing in Iowa, internal numbers from the Rick Perry and Romney camps show, according to multiple sources. Sources didn't provide specific numbers on how far he's slipped, but it's perceptible in both camps' numbers, the sources said. Perry has been inching up, the sources said - in part thanks to his faith-based push but largely because of his controversial anti-gay rights ad, and the big question is whether he draws at all from Romney and pushes him down out of the top three finishers in the state. The person who is holding strong, according to the internal numbers, is Paul, who has a true shot of winning the caucuses, according to several Iowa Republican insiders surveying ground games and energy."

Given the volatility of the GOP race thus far, PollTrack believes that these internal numbers could well spell a decline of support for Gingrich as earlier idealization is giving way to the political reality of frontrunner now being bombarded with negative advertisements and soundbites, many generated by his opponents. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Gingrich Holds Significant Lead In Iowa

Posted Dec 08, 2011 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll in Iowa, this one by New York Times-CBS News reports that Newt Gingrich has pull into a significant lead over GOP rivals with 31%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at 16%, Rick Perry at 11% and the rest of the field in single digits.

Election 2012: Gingrich Takes the Lead In Iowa

Posted Dec 05, 2011 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

The impressive Des Moines Register Iowa Poll--they predicted Barack Obama's surge down to the percentage point in the Democratic caucus back in 2008--has some good news for Newt Gingrich: according to the survey, he has "carved out a clear lead" in the GOP presidential race with 25%, followed by Ron Paul at 18% and Mitt Romney at 16%. Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain come in at 8%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. Significantly, as pollster J. Ann Seltzer notes, "the results show Gingrich's ascendancy has the potential to grow . . . More respondents choose Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate. Together, 43% of likely caucusgoers pick him as first or second."

Similarly, a survey by NBC News/Marist in Iowa finds reports that Gingrich is now in the lead at with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Ron Paul at 17%, Herman Cain at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

PollTrack: Romney No Longer The Clear Favorite To Win GOP Nomination

Posted Nov 30, 2011 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite polls showing Mitt Romney way ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack's analysis of the early voting states suggests a less clear path to victory for Romney. As one pollster notes in New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): "Just 16% of . . . likely primary voters say they know who they are voting for. So, while Romney might like his commanding lead right now, there is no telling where 84% of voters will go in the six remaining weeks before the primary." Indeed, the former Massachusetts governor now trails Newt Gingrich in most of the early voting states (or, as in Florida, is locked in a virtual tie with Gingrich). Romney's inability to seal the deal with Republican voters is telling.

Too moderate for the far right wing of the party--especially for Tea Party supporters--and too opportunistic in the eyes of even more moderate Republican voters, Romney appears to be unable to win the trust of a majority of GOP voters (or even a clear plurality). While it is now likely that the GOP primary season will drag on well into the early summer of 2012, it is PollTrack's opinion that Romney is no longer the clear frontrunner. Indeed, with major support now breaking Gingrich's way--and nearly all national surveys of GOP voters showing him in the lead--Gingrich may be breaking away from the pack. And as under-performing ultra-conservative candidates such as Cain, Bachmann, and Santorum begin dropping out of the race, it is far more likely that their votes will go to Gingrich and not Romney. Stay tuned.

Romney Just Ahead of Gingrich In New Hampshire; Well Behind Gingrich in Iowa

Posted Nov 21, 2011 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Magellan Strategies in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney now barely leads Newt Gingrich among GOP presidential primary voters, 29% to 27%. In the survey, Ron Paul comes in at 16%, Herman Cain at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Perry at 2% and Rick Santorum at 1%. In Iowa, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead among likely GOP caucus-goers with 32%, followed by former Mitt Romney at 19%, Herman Cain at 13%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 6% and Michele Bachmann at 6%.

Cain Maintains Leads In Iowa and South Carolina

Posted Nov 16, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite Allegations of sexual misconduct, Herman Cain maintains his lead in two early Republican nomination contests. According to two new surveys by Insider Advantage, Cain leads in Iowa with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Newt Gingrich at 15%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 9% and Michele Bachmann at 5%. In another key state, South Carolina, Cain leads with 26%, followed by Gingrich at 19%, Romney at 16%, Perry at 6%, Bachmann at 5%, Ron Paul at 3% and Rick Santorum at 1%.

Romney and Cain Maintain Leads In Early States

Posted Nov 15, 2011 at 12:47 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a series of surveys by GS Strategy, Mitt Romney and Herman Cain maintain leads in early GOP voting states. In Iowa, Cain leads Romney, 25% to 22%; the other candidates are at single digits. In New Hampshire, Romney maintains a huge lead, with 43% to Cain's 18%. In South Carolina, Cain just edges Romney in a statistical tie, 28% to 27%.

Election 2012: Early GOP Voting Calendar Set

Posted Nov 03, 2011 at 3:25 AM by Maurice Berger

For those of you, like PollTrack, interesting in following voter sentiment on the ground, here is the voting schedule of the first five states in the Republican nominating process:

January 3: Iowa

January 10: New Hampshire

January 21: South Carolina

January 31: Florida

February 4: Nevada

Cain And Romney Virtually Tied In Iowa Poll

Posted Nov 01, 2011 at 11:34 PM by Maurice Berger

The prestigious (and often remarkably accurate) Des Moines Register Iowa poll suggests that the race to win the Iowa Caucus may be very close. The survey reports that Herman Cain and Mitt are virtually tied at this poinr in the race: Cain edges Romney, 23% to 22%, with Ron Paul at 12%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Rick Perry at 7%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

Election 2012: Romney Ahead Or Tied In Early Voiting States

Posted Oct 28, 2011 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A new multi-state survey by CNN/Time/Opinion Research reports that Mitt Romney remains the clear front-runner in New Hampshire, leads in Florida, and is statistically tied for the top spot with Herman Cain in Iowa and South Carolina.

Iowa: Romney leads Cain 24 to 21%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 10%, Gingrich at 10%, and Bachmann at 6%.

New Hampshire: Romney leads Cain 40 to 13%, followed by Paul at 12%, Huntsman at 6%, Gingrich at 5%, and Perry at 4%.

South Carolina: Romney leads Cain 25 to 23%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, and Bachmann at 4%,

Florida: Romney leads Cain 30 to 18%, followed Gingrich at 9%, Perry at 9%, Paul at 6% and Bachmann at 4%.

Election 2012: Cain With Solid Lead In Iowa

Posted Oct 18, 2011 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by InsiderAdvantage/Newsmax in Iowa reports that Herman Cain holds a solid lead over Mitt Romney, 26%, followed to 18%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Ron Paul at 10% and Rick Perry at 6%.

Election 2012: Cain Takes Lead In Iowa

Posted Oct 12, 2011 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has taken the lead in the Republican presidential race in Iowa with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 8% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

Election 2012: Romney Leads In Iowa

Posted Sep 30, 2011 at 12:15 AM by Maurice Berger

In a sign that Iowa GOP voters, who tend to be more socially conservative the other early primary and caucus states, are more interested in winning against President Obama than ideological purity, a new American Research Group poll in the state reports that Mitt Romney now leads the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at 12%. All other candidates are in the single digits.

Election 2012: Perry Takes Lead In Iowa

Posted Aug 24, 2011 at 3:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Iowa reports that Rick Perry now leads the GOP presidential nomination field with 22%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Michele Bachmann at 18%, Ron Paul at 16%. Herman Cain polls 7%; Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are at 5%; and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

Election 2012: Rick Perry Leads In Iowa?

Posted Aug 19, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by We Ask America asked Iowa Republicans who they to see win the GOP nomination for president in 2012. The poll suggests that in the Hawkeye State, at least, there may be a new frontrunner: Rick Perry comes out on top with 29%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 17% and Mitt Romney at 15%.

Two More Polls Show Bachmann With Lead In Iowa

Posted Jul 15, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll of Iowa Republicans, this one from Magellan Strategies reports that Michele Bachmann holds a significant lead among likely caucus attendees with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 16%, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain at 8%, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 5% and Rick Santorum at 3%. 24% of respondents remain undecided. A Mason-Dixon poll in the state reports that Michele Bachmann leads among likely caucus-goers--though by a smaller margin--with 32%, followed by Mitt Romney at 29%, Tim Pawlenty at 7% and Rick Santorum at 6%.

Election 2012: Bachmann Ahead In Iowa?

Posted Jul 12, 2011 at 2:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey for the Iowa Republican reports that Michele Bachmann now leads the pack of 2012 GOP presidential contenders with 25%, followed by Mitt Romney at 21%, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain at 9%, Ron Paul at 6%, Newt Gingrich at 4%, Rick Santorum at 2% and John Hunstman at 1%.

Iowa Poll: Romney/Palin Nearly Tied

Posted Jun 27, 2011 at 1:59 AM by Maurice Berger

Good news for Mitt Romney in the year's first Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the Republican presidential field. While pundits have wondered whether Romney may be consrrvative enough to win the GOP Iowa Caucus, which tilts towards social conservatives, the poll has Romney in the lead at 23%. The bad news for the former Massachusetts Governor is that Michele Bachmann is nearly tied with him at 22% among likely Republican caucus-goers. They are followed by Herman Cain at 10%, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Election 2012: Unemployment Up in Swing States

Posted Jun 24, 2011 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

In yet another problem for the incumbent president, The Fix examines the most recent state-by-state unemployment numbers and reports "that in every one of the 14 swing states heading into 2012 -- Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- the unemployment rate has risen since October 2008."

GOP Nomination 2012: Huckabee Remains Iowa Frontrunner

Posted Mar 14, 2011 at 12:37 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released We Ask America poll in Iowa reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead the Republican presidential pack, with 20%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Newt Gingrich at 13%, Mitt Romney at 13%, Donald Trump at 9%, Ron Paul at 5%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, Haley Barbour at 3% and Mitch Daniels at 2%.

Races To Watch In 2011

Posted Jan 14, 2011 at 12:00 AM by Maurice Berger

Yes, 2011 is defintely a quiet year for electoral activity. But an important one. The 2012 campaigns--from president and congress--will actually start in 2011. So much to watch, especially as we near the first GOP presidential primaries in early-2012. And we'll also be following a few key, "off-year" elections, including:

Chicago mayoral race

Iowa Republican presidential straw poll (The Republican Party of Iowa's 2011 Iowa Straw Poll, set for Aug. 14 at the Iowa State Center in Ames)

Kentucky governor's race

Mississippi governor's race

Dallas mayoral race

Phoenix mayoral race

Louisiana governor's race

 

 

Huckabee Ahead In Iowa

Posted Jan 12, 2011 at 1:00 AM by Maurice Berger

If Mitt Romney is way ahead in the New Hampshire primary, a Neighborhood Research poll in Iowa tells a different story: Mike Huckabee leading the GOP presidential field in the crucial first voting state (though a caucus unlike NH) with 24%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Sarah Palin at 11% and Newt Gingrich at 8%. A new Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa also reports that Mike Huckabee is ahead, with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Sarah Palin at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 13%.

 

Presidential Race 2012: Romney Most Popular GOP Candidate In Iowa

Posted Jun 22, 2010 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Who is the most popular candidate among Iowa Republicans for the 2012 presidential race? A recent Iowa Poll reports that 62% of Republicans are very or mostly favorable toward Mitt Romney; 58% like Sarah Palin; and 56% are favorable to Newt Gingrich. PollTrack suggests not reading much into this very early sampling of GOP sentiment. Much can change over the next years and a half.

Morning Report: Obama Well Over The Mark, 291 to 163, with 84 TCTC

Posted Nov 04, 2008 at 1:41 AM by Maurice Berger

On election morning, it is clear to PollTrack that the fundamentals of the race decidedly favor Obama. He has wracked up significant margins in early voting according to nearly all polls, though in a few states, preeminently Florida, its unclear who has the edge and by how much. He maintains "Safe" leads in virtually all of the Kerry-blue states from 2004, and robust leads in a few Bush states as well (Iowa and New Mexico). Additionally, he holds a modest, but statistically significant, advantage in another two: Colorado and, amazingly in a state that hasn't gone Republican since 1964, Virginia. McCain, on the other hand, maintains 127 "Safe" electoral voters, and 32 "Leaners," one comfortably (West Virginia), and three by a very slim margin, helped by red-leaning statewide demographics (Montana, North Dakota, and Georgia). The Republican, unlike Obama, leads in NO Kerry-blue states (though his campaign insists it has a chance in PA) and is struggling in several states won by Bush: Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri, all three virtually tied and thus remain too close to call. And the two candidates have drawn the mother of all battleground states, Florida and Ohio, to a tie. Indeed, of the 12 true swing states in 2004, Obama now leads in all but these two states. If Obama simply maintains most of the states he now takes on PollTrack's map, he wins. McCain, on the other hand, would have to run the Bush-red deck now on the map, including all red-safe and red-leaning states, the five that are now too close to call, AND pick off a Kerry-blue state or two from Obama. In the end, turnout means everything in this--and all--elections. And the "wave" matters, too. If momentum remains sharply with Obama--e.g., voters are comfortable with him and angry about what they see as Republican mismanagement of the economy--the Democrat will win an electoral landslide. If McCain's newfound "momentum" turns out to be real and more than moderate--indeed, in most statewide surveys, voters who have already cast their ballots favor Obama by a significant margin, those who plan to vote today, lean to McCain, to varying degrees--the race could end closer. In this regard, Obama has another structural advantage in many states: with voting going on since early October in some places--a time when the Democrat was riding high in the polls--he comes into today's contest with a real edge. Yet, if turnout is unprecedented then the make-up of the electorate could determine the outcome of close states. This explains the near impossibility of predicting the outcome of states are now virtually or literally tied--MO, IN, FL, OH, and NC--simply from present-day polling, historical voting models, and demographics. Will this show of voter enthusiasm merely underscore Obama's longstanding popularity and the intensity of his supporters, or might Republicans, Evangelicals, and center-right white working class voters come home to McCain in larger than expected numbers?

As National Lead Narrows Somewhat, Are States Getting Closer, Too?

Posted Nov 02, 2008 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

While national polling indicates a somewhat narrowed race from a month ago--Obama now has an aggregate lead in our daily tracking average of a little over +6%--this effect carries through only in some states. As of this morning, Obama maintains a commanding, "Safe" lead in almost all of the states won by John  Kerry in 2004 plus Iowa, for a total of 239 "Safe" electoral votes. McCain now safely holds on to 127 electoral votes. These numbers, of course, suggest a strong structural advantage for Obama in the electoral college, especially considering that his average leads in these "Safe" states rise to or well above the 50% mark. But something interesting is going on: in a some of the swing and red-leaning states that went for Bush in 2004, but in which Obama has been leading in recent weeks--Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and Missouri--the momentum seems to be with McCain over the past two-three days. The most recent polls indicate that the race may be moving into the two-close-to-call range in all of these states. Additionally, Pennsylvania has narrowed considerably in the last three days of polling--three polls show the race at +4% DEM, another, Morning Call Tracking, which had Obama up by as much as the mid-teens, now reports the race is down to +7% DEM--and thus PollTrack moves the state on Today's and Tomorrow's Map from "Safe Democrat" to "Leaning Democrat." Ohio may be narrowing as well: Obama's PT average has dropped to +4.2%, while one poll out this morning, Mason-Dixon (one of the most accurate pollsters over the past two cycles), reports that McCain has pulled into a very modest +2% lead, 47% to 45%. Additionally, Obama's aggregate top-line in the state has dropped below the 50% mark to 48.8%. While early voting in Ohio should favor Obama in the end, PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from "Leaning Democrat" to "Too Close To Call." An in Indiana, where Obama has drawn the race to a virtual tie, PollTrack moves the state on Tomorrow's Map from "Leaning Republican" to "Too Close To Call."

Is McCain Giving Up On New Hampshire and Wisconsin?

Posted Oct 21, 2008 at 6:51 AM by Maurice Berger

The political world is buzzing with another rumor--just up on ABC News--about McCain's on-the-ground operation: that his campaign is giving up on New Hampshire and Wisconsin. If this is true--and so far, such reports have not been entirely accurate--then the Republican playing field has narrowed once again, and perilously for McCain. Both states were won by John Kerry in 2004. Obama now leads in both, in the latter by more than +10% according to PollTrack's average. If McCain withdraws from the two states, he is also effectively withdrawing to the very limited boundaries of the 2004 political map. He now must win nearly all of Bush's states to beat Obama--a difficult proposition since the Democrat leads by a healthy margin in several, including Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa, and by a slight advantage in a few others, including North Carolina, Nevada, and Missouri.

Two Weeks Out: The Fundamentals Favor Obama

Posted Oct 20, 2008 at 2:35 AM by Maurice Berger

With Obama leading in all of the states won by John Kerry in 2004--and McCain behind or struggling in a number won by George W. Bush--the fundamentals of the election still favor the Democrat. Perhaps the most positive sign for Obama is the stability of the national numbers over the cycle. Although there is evidence that these numbers are drawing closer (PT's polling average is inching below the 5% mark), the baseline number for each candidate has remained the same for all but a few weeks in September: Obama in the upper forties, McCain in the mid 40s. Only Obama has been able to register above the 50% mark for more than a few days (indeed, all of the daily trackers have placed him at or above 50% at some point during the past three weeks). The durability of these numbers suggests an underlying dynamic that tilts decidedly blue at this point. Having said this, even a durable and longstanding wave of support can break down in the waning days of an election. Indeed, Al Gore--facing an Republican opponent who rode a yearlong wave of support--made up a 10% deficit in the final month of the 2000 campaign. The other issue (all too relevant to 2000): the popular vote may not reflect McCain's ultimate strength on the electoral map. As Obama wracks up enormous leads in many of the blue states (including many of the blue battlegrounds such as Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan)--far out-pacing either Gore or Kerry--his leads in a number of battlegrounds are tenuous at best. McCain has drawn Ohio down to a tie. His numbers are perking up in West Virginia and Florida. Indeed, if McCain can solidify or win back support in Republican leading states--in other words if the electoral map returns to its traditional divisions--the election could come down to two states with dramatic voter registration shifts in recent years: Colorado and Virginia, both traditionally Republican but increasingly hospitable to Democrats. With Obama ahead in the three 2000/2004 "swing" states (New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Iowa swung between the two parties in the last two close elections), however, McCain's route to victory is nevertheless far narrower and more difficult than his opponent.

Today's Map: Iowa Looks Strong for Obama

Posted Sep 27, 2008 at 2:49 AM by Maurice Berger

Obama's relentless and enthusiastic campaigning in Iowa during the primary and caucus season may have paid off. While the race continues to be relatively close in a number of contiguous states (MN, MO, WI, for example), the Democrat is pulling ahead in Iowa. PollTrack moves the state from "Leaning" to "Safe Democrat" on Today's Map.

Tomorrow's Map: Iowa Moves From "Leaning" to "Safe Democrat"

Posted Sep 24, 2008 at 11:13 AM by Maurice Berger

With Obama's numbers in Iowa perking up in recent polling, PollTrack moves the state from "Leaning" to "Safe Democrat" on Tomorrow's Map.

Today's Map: Iowa Moves From "Safe" to "Leaning Democrat"

Posted Sep 20, 2008 at 2:05 AM by Maurice Berger

The two most recent polls issued in Iowa could not be more divergent. Survey USA (one of the more accurate polls during the primaries) gives Obama a whopping 11% lead (54% to 43%). Big10Battleground, a public opinion survey of Midwest voters, reports that the race is tied at 45%. A few more polls may clarify this situation. Statistical glitches or divergent polling models could be to blame. Survey USA shows the race tied among men, for example, numbers that would make Iowa an outlier, since most states report a gender gap (though one smaller than 2004) in which men favor the Republican, women the Democrat. Yet, there is reason to believe that the Democrat may be doing well in Iowa. During the primary and caucus season, Obama spent an inordinate amount of time and money in the state, building a solid organization, good will, and introducing himself to voters. He won the state's caucus by an impressive margin in a hotly contested and highly competitive race. By contrast, McCain lost this first-in-the-nation barometer of party preferences. Until further polling clarifies the situation, PollTrack moves Iowa on Today's Map from "Safe Democrat" to "Leaning Democrat."

Election Day Map Today

Posted Sep 15, 2008 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Based on statewide polling over the past month, PollTrack has a number of new calls on Election Day Map Today. In the coming weeks--as trends are established and voter opinion appears to be solidifying--more states will be added to the final tally. Stay tuned . . .

Today's Map: Iowa Moves from "Leaning" to "Safe Democrat"

Posted Sep 14, 2008 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

Good news for the Obama campaign in Iowa, the state that started it all for the candidate back in January: a new poll released by the Des Moines Register, the only survey to correctly predict Obama's surge in the days leading up to the Iowa Caucus, reports that the Democrat has taken a commanding 12% lead in the state. This combined with a recent CNN poll suggest that Obama is doing very well in Iowa. PollTrack moves Iowa from "Leaning" to "Safe Democrat" on Today's Map Today.

Key "Battleground" States Now Tied

Posted Aug 23, 2008 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

Another indication of the closeness of the race: A new National Public Radio survey of likely voters in 19 key "battleground" states--states that have been competitive in recent cycles or have swung between parties, such as Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa, and New Hampshire--finds Obama with just a one point lead over McCain: 46% to 45%.

New Swing State Analysis: FL, IW, MN, MO, OH, PA

Posted Aug 13, 2008 at 3:15 AM by Maurice Berger

Why is it so close? Indeed, since Obama's widely reported overseas trip--and the rush of anti-Obama ads and videos that paint the candidate as elitist and out of touch with most voters--McCain has shown signs of closing the gap further. In a few key swing states, such as Missouri and Florida, McCain is actually pulling ahead by a modest margin. While my polling average for Florida (for the past month) shows the election extremely close (+1.8% REP), the most recent round of polling indicates a modest surge for McCain, thus the state is now "Leaning Republican." In the mother of all swing states, Ohio, McCain has pulled even to an absolute tie (45.3% to 45.3% poll average). And the race has narrowed slightly in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Minnesota, although the Democrat retains his lead in all three states. The candidates' inability to break the 50% mark in any swing state, suggests that neither is walking away with this race.

Terry Madonna, poll director of the Franklin & Marshall organization, says of the narrowing of the race in Pennsylvania: "[Obama's] on third base, but so far he can't seem to find a way to get home. Look at the underlying trends. The economy is a huge issue. Bush's ratings are terrible. But too many voters are concerned about Obama's experience, and don't yet have enough confidence in his ability to lead."