Posted Nov 03, 2014 at 6:23 PM by Maurice Berger
DEM: 47 IND 1 GOP 52
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
MN: Franken (D)
MI: Peters (D)
NH: Saheen (D)
NC: Hagan (D)
Leans Independent
KS: Orman (I)
LEANS GOP
AK: Sullivan (R)
AR: Cotton (R)
GA: Perdue (R)
IA: Ernst (R)
CO: Gardner (R)
KS: Roberts (R)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Cassidy (R)
SD: Rounds (R)
LIKELY GOP
AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina
Posted Nov 01, 2014 at 7:51 PM by Maurice Berger
The latest poll out of Iowa from the Des Moines Register has bad news for the Democratic effort to retain control of the U.S. Senate. Given the current landscape of races across the nation, the party that wins Iowa is likely to control the Senate. The Des Moines Register poll, one of the most accurate polls in the nation, has Republican Joni Ernst up by +7. PollTrack's average for the state, while very close, shows momentum moving away from Democrat Bruce Braley over the past two weeks. PollTrack now rates this race Leans Republican.
The other key race in Colorado appears to be slipping away from the Democrats, as well. In PollTrack's average for the state, Democrat Udall trails by over -3%. And according to news reports, the GOP has a 100,000 vote advantage in early balloting. A bad sign for the Democrats.
At this point, it looks like 47 DEM 1-IND 52 GOP according to PollTrack's calculation. The one race that could shift back to the Democrats, Georgia, remains uncertain, the outcome dependent on African American turnout. Another race, Alaska, is hard to gauge, given the paucity of high quality polling. If both races were to break for the Democrats and the independent candidate were to prevail in Kansas and agree to caucus with the Democrats, a 50/50 tie is still possible, with the Vice President securing the upper chamber for the Democrats.
As it now stands, GOP control of the Senate appears likely. More on Sunday and Monday.
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, Georgia
Posted Nov 01, 2014 at 8:36 AM by Maurice Berger
DEM: 47 TOSS UP 2 IND 1 GOP: 50
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
MN: Franken (D)
MI: Peters (D)
NH: Saheen (D)
NC: Hagan (D)
TOSS UP
GA: Open
IA: Open
Leans Independent
KS: Orman (I)
LEANS GOP
AK: Sullivan (R)
AR: Cotton (R)
CO: Gardner (R)
KS: Roberts (R)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Cassidy (R)
SD: Rounds (R)
LIKELY GOP
AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Tagged: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina
Posted Oct 29, 2014 at 11:07 AM by Maurice Berger
DEM: 47 TOSS UP 3 IND 1 GOP: 49
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
MN: Franken (D)
MI: Peters (D)
NH: Saheen (D)
NC: Hagan (D)
TOSS UP
AK Begich (D)
GA: Open
IA: Open
Leans Independent
KS: Orman (I)
LEANS GOP
AR: Cotton (R)
CO: Gardner (R)
KS: Roberts (R)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Cassidy (R)
SD: Rounds (R)
LIKELY GOP
AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina
Posted Oct 26, 2014 at 2:58 PM by Maurice Berger
DEM: 48 TOSS UP 2 IND 1 GOP: 49
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
GA: Nunn (D)
MN: Franken (D)
MI: Peters (D)
NH: Saheen (D)
NC: Hagan (D)
TOSS UP
AK Begich (D)
IA: Open
Leans Independent
KS: Orman (I)
LEANS GOP
AR: Cotton (R)
CO: Gardner (R)
KS: Roberts (R)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Cassidy (R)
SD: Rounds (R)
LIKELY GOP
AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota
Posted Oct 24, 2014 at 1:05 PM by Maurice Berger
DEM: 48 TOSS UP 3 IND 1 GOP: 48
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM,
OR, RI, VA
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
GA: Nunn (D)
MN: Franken (D)
MI: Peters (D)
NH: Saheen (D)
NC: Hagan (D)
TOSS UP
AK Begich (D)
IA: Open
SD: Rounds (R)
Leans Independent
KS: Orman (I)
LEANS GOP
AR: Cotton (R)
CO: Gardner (R)
KS: Roberts (R)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Cassidy (R)
LIKELY GOP
AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Tagged: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota
Posted Oct 14, 2014 at 12:46 PM by Maurice Berger
DEM: 46 TOSS UP 9 GOP: 45
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM,
OR, RI, VA
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
MN: Franken (D)
MI: Open
TOSS UP
AK Begich (D)
CO: Udall (D)
GA: Open
IA: Open
KS Roberts (R)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Landrieu (D)
NC: Hagan (D)
NH: Shaheen (D)
SD: Rounds (R)
LEANS GOP
AR: Pryor (D)
LIKELY GOP
AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky
Posted Oct 09, 2014 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger
DEM: 46 TOSS UP 9 GOP: 45
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM,
OR, RI, VA
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
MN: Franken (D)
MI: Open
NH: Shaheen(D)
TOSS UP
AK Begich (D)
CO: Udall (D)
GA: Open
IA: Open
KS Roberts (R)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Landrieu (D)
NC: Hagan (D)
SD: Rounds (R)
LEANS GOP
AR: Pryor (D)
LIKELY GOP
AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Tagged: Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota
Posted Oct 08, 2014 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger
DEM: 46 TOSS UP 9 GOP: 45
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM,
OR, RI, VA
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
MN: Franken (D)
MI: Open
NC: Hagan (D)
TOSS UP
AK Begich (D)
CO: Udall (D)
GA: Open
IA: Open
KS Roberts (R)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Landrieu (D)
NH: Shaheen (D)
SD: Rounds (R)
LEANS GOP
AR: Pryor (D)
LIKELY GOP
AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Tagged: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, South Dakota
Posted Oct 07, 2014 at 11:41 AM by Maurice Berger
DEM: 46 TOSS UP 8 GOP: 46
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM,
OR, RI, VA
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
MN: Franken
MI: Open
NC: Hagan (D)
TOSS UP
AK Begich (D)
CO: Udall (D)
GA: Open
IA: Open
KS Roberts (R)
KY: McConnell (R)
LA: Landrieu (D)
NH: Shaheen (D)
LEANS GOP
AR: Pryor (D)
LIKELY GOP
AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Tagged: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia, Kansas
Posted Oct 06, 2014 at 10:30 AM by Maurice Berger
DEM: 46 TOSS UP 7 GOP: 47
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM,
OR, RI, VA
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
MN: Franken
MI: Open
NC: Hagan (D)
TOSS UP
AK Begich (D)
CO: Udall (D)
GA: Open
IA: Open
KS Roberts (R)
LA: Landrieu (D)
NH: Shaheen (D)
LEANS GOP
AR: Pryor (D)
KY: McConnell (R)
LIKELY GOP
AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Kansas, Alaska
Posted Sep 30, 2014 at 10:39 AM by Maurice Berger
DEM: 47 TOSS UP 6 GOP: 47
SAFE DEMOCRATIC
DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM,
OR, RI, VA
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
MN: Franken
MI: Open
NC: Hagan (D)
NH: Shaheen (D)
TOSS UP
AK Begich (D)
CO: Udall (D)
GA: Open
IA: Open
KS Roberts (R)
LA: Landrieu (D)
LEANS GOP
AR: Pryor (D)
KY: McConnell (R)
LIKELY GOP
AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Kentucky, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, Louisiana
Posted Sep 22, 2014 at 8:42 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Rasmussen in Kansas reports that independent candidate Greg Orman leads incumbent Republican Pat Roberts for U.S. Senate, 45% to 40%.
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, Kansas
Posted Aug 28, 2014 at 8:43 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by SurveyUSA in Kansas reports that incumbent GOP Sen. Pat Roberts holds only a 5% lead over Democratic
challenger Chad Taylor in the U.S. Senate race, 37% to 32%, with
independent Greg Orman at 20%.
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, Kansas
Posted Aug 27, 2014 at 8:39 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Rasmussen in Kansas reports that Democratic challenger Paul Davis leads incumbent GOP Gov. Sam Brownback in the race for governor by 10 points, 51% to 41%.
Tagged: US Governor RACE CHART, Kansas
Posted Apr 21, 2014 at 8:16 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Rasmussen in Kansas reports that incumbent Republican US Sen. Pat Roberts holds a significant lead over potential Democratic challenger Kathleen Sebelius, 54% to 37%.
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, Kansas
Posted Feb 25, 2014 at 7:53 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Public Policy Polling in Kansas reports that conservative GOP Gov. Sam Brownback slightly trails Democratic challenger Paul Davis un his re-election race by +2%, 42% to 40%. Brownback would appear to be in trouble in the state: "Only 33% of voters in the state approve of the job Brownback is doing, compared to 51% who disapprove."
Tagged: US Governor RACE CHART, Kansas
Posted Sep 12, 2008 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack observes that the so-called 50-state strategy of the Obama campaign--the idea that the electoral map can be realigned to flip into the Democratic column traditional Republican strongholds such Alaska, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, North Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia--may not be working. With the Republican party unified--and Sarah Palin firing up the party's most faithful voters--most of these states are now out of reach. Over the past week, McCain's numbers are improved dramatically in these states, in some cases tilting them into the "Safe" column (indeed all of the above states, save VA, where McCain has moved into a tiny lead, are growing redder). Is the Obama campaign squandering its resources in states it cannot win, thus diluting its power in states that have traditionally been close but winnable for the Democrats?
The good news for Obama--but one that brings the 50-state strategy into question--is that the candidate is holding his own in nearly all of the states that John Kerry won in 2004, leading in many by significant margins. Still, in order to reach the magic number of 270, Obama will need to pick off a few states that either are inevitably Republican (but have shifting demographics that favor the Democrats, like VA, which has gone red in every presidential cycle since 1964) or have a demographic that gives the Dems a fighting chance to flip the state (CO, NV, NM, FL). Will competing in states that are not winnable make it more difficult for the Obama campaign to pick off states that are?
Tagged: Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Montana, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, 50-state strategy
