Posted Jan 14, 2011 at 8:00 AM by Maurice Berger
Yes, 2011 is defintely a quiet year for electoral activity. But an important one. The 2012 campaigns--from president and congress--will actually start in 2011. So much to watch, especially as we near the first GOP presidential primaries in early-2012. And we'll also be following a few key, "off-year" elections, including:
Chicago mayoral race
Iowa Republican presidential straw poll (The Republican
Party of Iowa's 2011 Iowa Straw Poll, set for Aug. 14 at the Iowa State
Center in Ames)
Kentucky governor's race
Mississippi governor's race
Dallas mayoral race
Phoenix mayoral race
Louisiana governor's race
Tagged: 2011, Louisiana, Mississippi, Iowa, Arizona, Texas, Illinois, Kentucky
Posted Sep 15, 2008 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger
Although the Republican base is fired up and McCain claims a significant lead among independents, Democratic party identification and voter enthusiasm is also way up (Rasmussen gives the Democrats a 5% advantage). Thus, neither candidate is walking away with the election at this point. Even a cursory glance at the electoral map suggests conditions far similar to the razor close count of 2000 and not 1988 or 1992, where one party gained lasting momentum and was able to pick off enough swing states to capture a solid electoral majority. If Obama were poised to do this, he would need to win a bunch of states that have gone Republican in the last two cycles but were also won by Bill Clinton in 1992 and/or 1996: Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, Georgia, Florida. All these states are now moving solidly into the Republican column. Similarly, McCain is behind in New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Michigan (though by smaller margins than Obama in TN, KY, MN, GA, WV), states he would need for a big win.
Unless dramatic on-the-ground events (perhaps spurred by this weekend's Wall Street meltdown) or a striking under-performance or major league blooper in the debates throws off one of the candidates, it's conceivable that the election will remain close to the very end. Then it will be up to voter enthusiasm and turnout to propel one or the other over the victory line.
Tagged: Florida, Georgia, Barack Obama, John McCain, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Michigan, Montana
