Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

MA Gov: Democrat Coakley Ahead

Posted Aug 26, 2014 at 9:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Boston Globe in Massachusetts reports that Martha Coakley leads Republican Charlie Baker in the race for governor by double-digits, 40% to 32%. PollTrack notes that neither candidate approaches the 50% mark, which suggests some instability in the race.

MA Gov: Democrat Coakley Ahead

Posted Aug 04, 2014 at 8:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Boston Globe in Massachusetts reports that Democrat Martha Coakley is +10% ahead of Republican Charlie Baker in the race for governor, 42% to 32%.

MA Gov: Race Nearly Tied

Posted Jul 23, 2014 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger

Just over a month ago, Democrat Martha Coakley held a +9% lead over Republican Charlie Baker in the governor's race in Massachusetts. A new poll by the Boston Globe reports that Coakley'e edge has nearly evaporated: she now leads by just +3%-- 39% to 36%.

MA Gov: Democrat Coakley Ahead

Posted Jul 09, 2014 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Boston Globe poll in Massachusetts reports that Democrat Martha Coakley leads Republican Charlie Baker, 40% to 31%.

MA Gov: Democrat Coakley Ahead

Posted Jul 03, 2014 at 9:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by WBUR/MassInc in Massachusetts reports that Democrat Martha Coakley leads Republican Charlie Baker in the race for governor by a considerable margin, 41% to 28%.

MA Gov: Coakley Ahead

Posted Jun 24, 2014 at 10:36 AM by Maurice Berger

According to new poll by Boston Globe/Social in Massachusetts, Democrat Martha Coakley leads Republican Charlie Baker in the race for Governor, 42% to 31%.

MA Gov: Coakley Leads Democratic Primary

Posted May 29, 2014 at 8:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by WBUR in Massachusetts reports that Martha Coakley leads Steve Grossman in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, 51% to 7%. In a hypothetical general election match up, Coakley leads Republican frontrunner Charlie Baker, 39% to 30%.

MA US Senate: Final Poll Shows Democrat Comfortably Ahead

Posted Jun 25, 2013 at 8:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A final Suffolk poll in today's special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusettes reports that Democrat Rep. Edward Markey maintains a comfortable lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez, 52% to 42%. The results are in sync with other polls posted by PollTrack over the past week.

MA US Senate: Markey Ahead

Posted Jun 24, 2013 at 8:24 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Western New England University reports that Democratic Rep. Ed Markey leads Republican Gabriel Gomez by +8% in tomorrow's special U.S. Senate election, 49% to 41%, with 9% undecided. With other polls showing Markey well ahead and at or near the 50% mark, it appears likely that he will win.

MA US Senate: Democrat Solidly Ahead

Posted Jun 18, 2013 at 7:12 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Boston Globe reports that Democratic Rep. Edward Markey holds a significant lead over GOP rival Gabriel Gomez, 54% to 41%, in the final week of the special U.S. Senate election.

MA US Senate: Democrat Ahead

Posted Jun 17, 2013 at 12:42 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Harper Polling in Massachusetts reports that Democratic Rep. Ed Markey holds a significant 12% lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez, 49% to 37%.

MA US Senate: Democrat In The Lead

Posted Jun 10, 2013 at 9:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Massachusetts reports that Democrat Rep. Ed Markey leads Republican Gabriel Gomez by 8% in the special U.S. Senate race, 47% to 39%. A University of Massachusett poll reports an 11% lead for Markey, pool51% to 40%.

Are Democrats Too Complacent In Massachusetts?

Posted May 20, 2013 at 4:04 PM by Maurice Berger

Stuart Rothenberg notes that democratic complacency in the 2013 special election in Massachusetts to fill the US Senate seat vacated by John Kerry could backfire: "The special election . . . took an interesting turn this week, when former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez drew more than 50 percent of the vote to win the GOP nomination. . . . The total GOP primary vote was less than what Lynch received in the Democratic race, and the Bay State’s Democratic bent is undeniable. But Gomez has an interesting story, and at least the GOP didn’t nominate an old white guy who had served in the Massachusetts Legislature. . . Democrats won’t allow themselves to be surprised the way they were when Scott P. Brown beat Martha Coakley in the last Senate special election, in early 2010, and the national party’s image can’t do anything but hurt Gomez’s already uphill chances. But there is no reason to rush to judgment on this race, at least for a couple of weeks, and it’s worth watching to see how it unfolds. Obviously, Markey begins as the clear favorite.

Markey Ahead In MA Special Election, But By How Much?

Posted May 10, 2013 at 8:22 AM by Maurice Berger

Two conflicting polls on the state of the special election to fill Secretary of State's John Kerry's US Senate seat: a new WBUR poll in Massachusetts reports that Democrat Rep. Edward Markey leads Republican Gabriel Gomez, 41% to 35%. This would suggest a very competitive race. But a contemporaneous Suffolk University poll finds Markey ahead by 17% points, 52% to 35%.

MA US Senate Race: Headed For Upset?

Posted May 08, 2013 at 7:54 AM by Maurice Berger

Is the special election to fill the US Senate seat vacated by John Kerry in Massachusetts head for an upset, much like the race to fill the seat of the late-Edward Kennedy? Possibly. A new survey by  Public Policy Polling reports that the race is a surprisingly close , with Democrat Rep. Ed Markey leading Republican Gabriel Gomez by just +4%--44% to 40%.

Who Is Ahead In MA Senate Race?

Posted Apr 25, 2013 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Western New England University in Massachusetts reports that Rep. Edward Markey leads Rep. Stephen Lynch in the Democratic primary to fill US Secretary of State, John Kerry's US Senate seat, 44% to 34%. On the GOP side, Gabriel Gomez holds a slim lead over Michael Sullivan, 33% to 27%.

Who Feels Safest In America?

Posted Apr 11, 2013 at 8:58 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Gallup, "80% of those living in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area say they feel safe walking alone at night in the area where they live, the highest percentage among the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. Minneapolis is followed closely by Denver, Raleigh, Boston, Salt Lake City, and Austin." Here is Gallup's chart:

Safest Metro Areas Among 50 Largest

Markey Ahead In MA Democratic Senate Primary

Posted Feb 19, 2013 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Which Democrat is in the strongest position to take the Democratic nomination in the special election to fill the US Senate seat in Massachusetts just vacated by John Kerry?  A new poll by  WBUR reports that Rep. Ed Markey leads Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) among likely Democratic U.S. Senate primary voters, 38% to 31% with 4% preferring another candidate. 26% remain undecided.

Massachusetts US Senate: A Virtual Tie

Posted May 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM by Maurice Berger

The US Senate race in Massachusetts--potentially one of the closest, most expensive, and hardest fought in the 2012 cycle--remains nearly deadlocked. A new poll by Suffolk University reports that the Republican incumbent, Scott Brown holds a razor thin lead over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren, 48% to 47%. The survey's analysis continues: "Brown has fallen short of the coveted 50% mark for an incumbent, while Elizabeth Warren has converted some undecided voters since February. This leaves both campaigns no choice but to spend tens of millions of dollars in an all-out war to woo the five percent of voters who will decide this election."

Super Tuesday Updates

Posted Mar 05, 2012 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

Here are polling updates from PollTrack on the upcoming GOP primary and causes race for tomorrow's Super Tuesday sweep.

Georgia: Landmark/Rosetta Stone shows a possible Newt Gingrich romp in the state, with the former house speaker way ahead of the GOP presidential field in his home state with 42%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Rick Santorum at 16% and Ron Paul at 5%. Interestingly, YouGov show a much closer race, with Gingrich at 32%, followed by Romney at 27%, Santorum at 17% and Paul at 10%

Massachusetts: According to YouGov, it's a Romney romp in the former governor's home state. Romney leads with 56%, followed by Santorum at 16%, Gingrich at 5% and Paul at 5%.

Ohio: In the all important--and perhaps make or break race for Rick Santorum--in Ohio, a survey by NBC News/Marist reports that Santorum is just ahead of Romney among GOP primary voters, 34% to 32%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at 13%.

Oklahoma: American Research Group reports that Santorum leads the GOP presidential field in next week's primary with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 26%, Newt Gingrich at 22%, and Ron Paul at 9%.

Tennessee: Rasmussen survey finds Santorum just ahead of  Romney, 34% to 30%, with Newt Gingrich at 18% and Ron Paul at 8%. Similarly, American Research Group shows Santorum leading Romney, 35% to 31%, with Gingrich at 20% and Paul at 9%.

MA US Senate 2012: Republican Brown Looks Safe

Posted Apr 06, 2011 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite the state's overwhelming Democratic tilt, Massachusetts continues to support incumbent GOP U.S. Senator Scott Brown. An internal Democratic poll suggests his popularity is on the rise: "The survey, which has been seen by at least one D.C. insider and was detailed for Salon, measured Brown's approval rating at 73% -- easily surpassing the scores for Barack Obama and the state's two top Democrats, Gov. Deval Patrick and Sen. John Kerry. It also found him running over the magic 50% mark against every potential Democratic challenger, and crushing the strongest perceived Democrats (Reps. Michael Capuano and Ed Markey and former Rep. Marty Meehan) by double-digit margins. The results only grew closer when respondents were primed with negative information about Brown."

Republican Sen. Scott Brown Popular In Massachusetts

Posted Mar 17, 2011 at 11:51 PM by Maurice Berger

Republican U.S. Senator Scott Brown is showing surprising strength in the bluest of blue state of Massachusetts. A new Western New England College poll reports that 52% of registered voters say Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) deserves to be re-elected, while 28% say he does not deserve to be re-elected. In hypothetical match ups, Brown leads Rep. Mike Capuano (D-MA), 51% to 38%, and tops Elizabeth Warren (D), 51% to 34%.

Daily Tracking Average: Obama Bumps Up An Additional +1.6%

Posted Nov 03, 2008 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger

Today's daily tracking poll average indicates a comfortable national aggregate lead of +6.6% for the Democrat, 50.6% to 44%. Still, with Obama up as much as +25% in states with some of the largest populations--such as CA, NY, MA, IL, MI--this national number may not reflect the relativeness closeness of the race in several key battleground states, including OH, NC, and FL. Much of today's polling continues to indicate an unusually large bloc of undecided or still persuadable voters. IBD/TIPP puts the figure at an amazing 9.5% undecided. A just issued CBS News periodic poll indicates a 6% undecided block. And Rasmussen still indicates that 10% of voters remain uncertain, lean to one candidate, or intend to vote for a third party candidate. The large undecided bloc that continues to register in some polls is unusually high the day before a national cycle, particularly one with as much voter enthusiasm as this one. Where will these voters wind up, if and when they vote?

 

Daily Tracking Poll Average: National Average Tightens Overnight

Posted Nov 02, 2008 at 5:31 AM by Maurice Berger

This afternoon, four of five tracking polls out today report that the race has tightening over the past 24 hours (except for the erratic Zobgy survey). Today's PollTrack daily tracking poll average indicates that Obama's lead is down -1.3% from yesterday to 49.8% to 44.8%, for an aggregate advantage of +5% DEM. One poll, TIPP, the most accurate in 2004, reports a dramatic tightening of the race (Obama by +2%, 47% to 45%): "The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates." One other thing to consider, with Obama's national lead down to 5%--and his lead in high-population Kerry-blue states such as NY, IL, CA, MA, and NJ ballooning to 15-25% in most--the shrinking national total might also suggest that the races in more highly competitive battleground states may be drawing closer. Stay tuned.

Tomorrow's Map: Massachusetts and Connecticut Move To "Safe Democrat"

Posted Oct 05, 2008 at 8:28 AM by Maurice Berger

With both Massachusetts and Connecticut holding very steady for Obama, PollTrack moves the states from "Leaning"  To "Safe Democrat" on Tomorrow's Map.