Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Election 2012: Romney With Commading Lead In New Hampshire

Posted Jan 04, 2012 at 2:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A number of polls in recent days report a commanding lead for Mitt Romney in the New Hampshire. A new poll by Suffolk tracking, for example, shows Romney leading with 43%, followed by Ron Paul at 17%, Jon Huntsman at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 8%. This poll is consistent with several others released over the past week. Given the extreme closeness of Romney's victory in Iowa yesterday, PollTrack will be watching New Hampshire very closely over the next six days for signs of weakening in Romney's position.

Polls Report Tight Iowa Race, With Romney in The Lead

Posted Jan 02, 2012 at 4:29 PM by Maurice Berger

A survey in Iowa from Public Policy Polling survey, conducted Saturday and Sunday, reports a virtual three-way tie in advance of the Iowa caucuses. In the poll, Ron Paul leads with 20 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 19 percent and Rick Santorum at 18 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll in Iowa shows Romney with an insignificant lead; he's at 23%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 18%, Newt Gingrich at 16%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. And a survey by American Research Group shows a slightly larger lead for Romney, with 22%, followed by Paul at 17%, Santorum at 16% and Gingrich at 15%.

Romney, Paul Top Iowa Poll, With Santorum Coming On Strong

Posted Jan 02, 2012 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey from the highly respect--and often very accurate--Des Moines Register reports that Mitt Romney now leads with 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7%. The bog news may well be Santorum's surprisingly strong showing: "If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21%, pushing Paul to third, at 18%. Romney remains the same, at 24%."

Election 2012: Close Race In Iowa?

Posted Dec 30, 2011 at 2:33 AM by Maurice Berger

A series of new polls suggests that the race to win the GOP Iowa Caucus may indeed be very close. A survey by InsiderAdvantage reports that the race is deadlocked, with Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul tied at 17% support each. Rick Santorum, whose numbers in Iowa have been rising in recent days, comes in at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 12%, Rick Perry at 11% and Jon Huntsman at 3%. Two other polls paint a similar picture of a very close race: American Research Group poll shows Romney leading with 22%, followed by Gingrich at 17%, Paul at 16% and Santorum at 11%; Rasmussen reports that Romney edgies Paul, 23% to 22%, with Santorum at 16% and Gingrich and Perry at 13% each.

PPP Survey: Paul Leads In Iowa

Posted Dec 28, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Ron Paul maintains a modest lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 24% to 20%, with Newt Gingrich in third place at 13%. Michele Bachmann comes in at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Gallup Tracking: Gingrich Continues To Hold slight National Lead

Posted Dec 27, 2011 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

According to the latest tracking poll from Gallup Newt Gingrich continues to hold a slight lead nationally among Republican voters with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Santorum at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 1%. Factoring in other polls, PollTrack now believes that Gingrich's advantage nationally will not hold through the Iowa caucus on 8 January. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Three GOP Candidates Bunched At The Top

Posted Dec 26, 2011 at 2:21 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll released by American Research Group in Iowa reports a crowded field at top, with three candidates virtually tied for the lead: Ron Paul leads the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 20% and Newt Gingrich at 19%. As for the rest, they're all in the singles digits, with Rick Perry coming in at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 6% and Rick Santorum at 4%.

Election 2012: Can Romney Wrap It Up Early

Posted Dec 23, 2011 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

With the implosion of yet another GOP candidate (Newt Gingrich) and the ascendance of Mitt Romney to the top of the pack in Iowa, the question now on the table is whether Romney will win the nomination and wrap it up early. With several polls reporting a significant lead for Romney in New Hampshire--and now leading in Iowa (A Rasmussen survey in Iowa shows Romney leading Ron Paul, 25% to 20%)--PollTrack thinks that this could be a possibility, though Gingrich continues to lead in other early (and more conservative) voting states, such as South Carolina and (marginally) Florida. Stay tuned.

(The Rasmussen Poll also shows Newt Gingrich at 17%, Rick Perry at 10%, Rick Santorum at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 4%.)

Election 2012: Iowa Too Close To Call

Posted Dec 22, 2011 at 3:13 AM by Maurice Berger

With Newt Gingrich the newest GOP contender to implode in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, the race for the Iowa caucus is now too close to call. A poll from We Ask America reports a very competitive race the Iowa. Ron Paul leads with 19%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Gingrich at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 11%, Rick Santorum at 9% and Jon Huntsman at 4%. Another poll, this one from Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG shows a very close race for the top two contenders--Paul with 28%, followed by Gingrich at 25%--with Romney further behind at 18%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

Election 2012: Gingrich Leads In CA, PA, and VA

Posted Dec 20, 2011 at 3:11 AM by Maurice Berger

In case you're wonderful about other GOP primary states, here a breakdown of the standing of the GOP field in several of the larger states. In CA, PA, and VA, at least, Gingrich appears to be in the lead. Given the erosion of Gingrich's support in most recent polling, however, PollTrack suggests that these results should be view with a good degree of skepticism. In any case, Newt Gingrich leads by considerable margins in the key states:

CALIFORNIA (Public Policy Institute): Gingrich 33%, Romney 25%, Paul 9%, Bachmann 7%, Perry 4%, Santorum 4% and Huntsman 2%.

PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Polling and Research):  Gingrich 8%, Bachmann 6%, and Perry 2%.

VIRGINIA (Public Policy Polling survey): Gingrich 41%, Romney 15%, Perry 8%, Bachmann 8%, Santorum 6%, Paul 6% and Huntsman 3%.

 

PollTrack: Storm Warning Ahead For Gingrich

Posted Dec 19, 2011 at 1:45 AM by Maurice Berger

While a pronounced surge for Newt Gingrich in the contest for the 2012 GOP nomination has been evident in recent weeks, the latest polling, plus the internals of some upcoming surveys, suggests that Gingrich may have some tough sailing ahead. Gallup daily tracking, for example, indicates a sharp decline in Gingrich's support. Gingrich now leads Mitt Romney by only +4%--28% to 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Rick Perry at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. PollTrack has learned that several national surveys--as well as statewide polls--will report similar, relatively rapid, declines in Gingrich's standing in the GOP field. Stay tuned.

Is the Momentum Shifting Back To Romney

Posted Dec 16, 2011 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger

As his opponents continue to barrage Newt Gingrich with negative soundbites, can the ex-congressman maintain his momentum. A poll released last week in Iowa, by Rasmussen suggests that the tide may be turning once again the the quest for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. The poll now reports that Mitt Romney has recaptured back the lead with 23%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Ron Paul at 18%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 5%. Given the strong, religious-conservative bent of the Iowa Republican caucus-goers, this trend, if sustained, could be really big news.

Contradictory Polls In Michigan GOP Primary

Posted Dec 16, 2011 at 2:01 AM by Maurice Berger

Two polls just out. Two different readings of the relatively early (February 28) GOP presidential primary race in Michigan. A survey from MIRS reports that Romney leads with a double-digit lead in the state where he was raised, 48% to 33%. (Michele Bachmann comes in at 11% and Rick Perry at 7%). Another poll from Strategic National shows Newt Gingrich edging Mitt Romney in Michigan, where Romney spent his childhood, 31% to 29%. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Gingrich Holds Big National Lead

Posted Dec 13, 2011 at 10:42 AM by Maurice Berger

Another survey, this one from Fox News reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Gingrich leads with 36%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick Santorum at 4%, and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Americans' Perception Of The GOP Field Grows Negative

Posted Dec 09, 2011 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey released by Pew Research reports that more Americans say their impression of the GOP field is worsening than improving: 31% of respondents say that their impression of the GOP field is getting worse as they learn more about the candidates, while 14% says it's getting better. Another 50% say their impression remains the same.

Election 2012: Gingrich Holds Significant Lead In Iowa

Posted Dec 08, 2011 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll in Iowa, this one by New York Times-CBS News reports that Newt Gingrich has pull into a significant lead over GOP rivals with 31%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at 16%, Rick Perry at 11% and the rest of the field in single digits.

Election 2012: Gingrich Maintains Double Digit Lead Nationally

Posted Dec 06, 2011 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Poll Position reports that Newt Gingrich's national lead has widened. He tops the GOP presidential field with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Perry at 3%, Jon Huntsman at 2% and Rick Santorum at 2%. As PollTrack predicted last week, Gingrich appears to be benefiting from the defection of conservative candidates, such as Herman Cain. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Gingrich Takes the Lead In Iowa

Posted Dec 05, 2011 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

The impressive Des Moines Register Iowa Poll--they predicted Barack Obama's surge down to the percentage point in the Democratic caucus back in 2008--has some good news for Newt Gingrich: according to the survey, he has "carved out a clear lead" in the GOP presidential race with 25%, followed by Ron Paul at 18% and Mitt Romney at 16%. Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain come in at 8%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. Significantly, as pollster J. Ann Seltzer notes, "the results show Gingrich's ascendancy has the potential to grow . . . More respondents choose Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate. Together, 43% of likely caucusgoers pick him as first or second."

Similarly, a survey by NBC News/Marist in Iowa finds reports that Gingrich is now in the lead at with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Ron Paul at 17%, Herman Cain at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Election 2012: Polling In Florida Confirms Gingrich Ascendance

Posted Dec 01, 2011 at 1:27 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll in Florida (with results similar to two others released over the past few days) confirms Gingrich's ascendance in the national contest for the GOP presidential nomination. The survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential field with 47%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Herman Cain at 15%, Ron Paul at 5%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, Rick Perry at 2%, and Rick Santorum at 1%. Significantly, in light of PollTrack's Wednesday analysis of the status of the GOP campaign, the poll reports that the "biggest reason for Newt Gingrich's rise is that he's picked up the voters of Herman Cain and Rick Perry as their campaigns have fallen apart." PPP continues: "But these numbers make it pretty clear he's doing more than that--some of Mitt Romney's '25%' is starting to fall off and move toward Newt as well."

PollTrack: Romney No Longer The Clear Favorite To Win GOP Nomination

Posted Nov 30, 2011 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite polls showing Mitt Romney way ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack's analysis of the early voting states suggests a less clear path to victory for Romney. As one pollster notes in New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): "Just 16% of . . . likely primary voters say they know who they are voting for. So, while Romney might like his commanding lead right now, there is no telling where 84% of voters will go in the six remaining weeks before the primary." Indeed, the former Massachusetts governor now trails Newt Gingrich in most of the early voting states (or, as in Florida, is locked in a virtual tie with Gingrich). Romney's inability to seal the deal with Republican voters is telling.

Too moderate for the far right wing of the party--especially for Tea Party supporters--and too opportunistic in the eyes of even more moderate Republican voters, Romney appears to be unable to win the trust of a majority of GOP voters (or even a clear plurality). While it is now likely that the GOP primary season will drag on well into the early summer of 2012, it is PollTrack's opinion that Romney is no longer the clear frontrunner. Indeed, with major support now breaking Gingrich's way--and nearly all national surveys of GOP voters showing him in the lead--Gingrich may be breaking away from the pack. And as under-performing ultra-conservative candidates such as Cain, Bachmann, and Santorum begin dropping out of the race, it is far more likely that their votes will go to Gingrich and not Romney. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Another Poll Shows Gingrich In The Lead

Posted Nov 29, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll, this one from Majority Opinion Research reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead over Mitt Romney, 32% to 23%. In the poll, Herman Cain comes in at 14%, Ron Paul at 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Michele Bachmann 4%, Jon Huntsman 3%, "someone else" at 4%, and no opinion at 11%.

Romney Way Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted Nov 23, 2011 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Suffolk University/7NEWS in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney is way ahead of the GOP field with 41%, followed by Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 14%. In the only state where Jon Huntsman shows any strength, the former Utah governor comes in at 9%; Herman receives 8%, Rick Santorum 3%, Rick Perry 2%, and Michele Bachmann 1%.

Romney Just Ahead of Gingrich In New Hampshire; Well Behind Gingrich in Iowa

Posted Nov 21, 2011 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Magellan Strategies in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney now barely leads Newt Gingrich among GOP presidential primary voters, 29% to 27%. In the survey, Ron Paul comes in at 16%, Herman Cain at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Perry at 2% and Rick Santorum at 1%. In Iowa, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead among likely GOP caucus-goers with 32%, followed by former Mitt Romney at 19%, Herman Cain at 13%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 6% and Michele Bachmann at 6%.

Two Polls Report Gingrich Leading Nationally

Posted Nov 18, 2011 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger

Two polls now show Newt Gingrich leading the GOP pack nationally. An Economist/YouGov reports that Gingrich leading is ahead nationally with 23%, followed closely by Herman Cain at 21% and Mitt Romney at 19%. Ron Paul comes in at 7%, Rick Perry at 6%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, Rick Santorum at 2% and Gary Johnson at 1%. A Fox News pollalso shows Gingrich in the lead, with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22% and Herman Cain at 15%. Ron Paul come in at 8%, Rick Perry at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Rick Santorum at 2%.

Cain Maintains Leads In Iowa and South Carolina

Posted Nov 16, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite Allegations of sexual misconduct, Herman Cain maintains his lead in two early Republican nomination contests. According to two new surveys by Insider Advantage, Cain leads in Iowa with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Newt Gingrich at 15%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 9% and Michele Bachmann at 5%. In another key state, South Carolina, Cain leads with 26%, followed by Gingrich at 19%, Romney at 16%, Perry at 6%, Bachmann at 5%, Ron Paul at 3% and Rick Santorum at 1%.

Election 2012: Romney Retakes National Lead

Posted Nov 14, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Economist/YouGov, Mitt Romney has retaken his position atop the GOP presidential field with 24%, followed by Herman Cain at 21% and Newt Gingrich at 16%. Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Rick Perry are all tied for forth at 7%, in front of Jon Huntsman at 5% and Rick Santorum at 2%.

Election 2012: Cain and Romney Tied Nationally Among GOP Voters

Posted Nov 08, 2011 at 3:32 AM by Maurice Berger

 

A new poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that Herman Cain and Mitt Romney tied for the lead nationally among Republican voters at 21% each. Newt Gingrich is in third place at 12%, just ahead of Rick Perry at 11%. The other candidates fail to rise above single digits.

Cain And Romney Virtually Tied In Iowa Poll

Posted Nov 01, 2011 at 11:34 PM by Maurice Berger

The prestigious (and often remarkably accurate) Des Moines Register Iowa poll suggests that the race to win the Iowa Caucus may be very close. The survey reports that Herman Cain and Mitt are virtually tied at this poinr in the race: Cain edges Romney, 23% to 22%, with Ron Paul at 12%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Rick Perry at 7%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

Election 2012: Cain Leads Nationally

Posted Oct 31, 2011 at 2:51 AM by Maurice Berger

While several recent polls have showed Mitt Romney leading in some of the early 2012 caucus and primary states, a nw survey by the Economist/YouGov reports that Herman Cain now leads the Republican presidential field nationally with 28%, followed by Romney at 24%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates are below 5%. The poll also suggests that Romney mat be the stronger challenger against the president next fall: in general election match ups, Obama leads Romney, 48% to 45%, bests Cain, 48% to 40%, and overwhelms Perry 48% to 38%.

 

 

Election 2012: Romney Ahead Or Tied In Early Voiting States

Posted Oct 28, 2011 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A new multi-state survey by CNN/Time/Opinion Research reports that Mitt Romney remains the clear front-runner in New Hampshire, leads in Florida, and is statistically tied for the top spot with Herman Cain in Iowa and South Carolina.

Iowa: Romney leads Cain 24 to 21%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 10%, Gingrich at 10%, and Bachmann at 6%.

New Hampshire: Romney leads Cain 40 to 13%, followed by Paul at 12%, Huntsman at 6%, Gingrich at 5%, and Perry at 4%.

South Carolina: Romney leads Cain 25 to 23%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, and Bachmann at 4%,

Florida: Romney leads Cain 30 to 18%, followed Gingrich at 9%, Perry at 9%, Paul at 6% and Bachmann at 4%.

Election 2012: Romney Holds Large Lead In Nevada

Posted Oct 27, 2011 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Magellan Strategies in Nevada reports that Mitt Romney holds a significant lead over Herman Cain, 38% to 26%, in the GOP nomination context, with Newt Gingrich in third at 16%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rick Perry at 5%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Santorum at 1% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

Election 2012: Romney Continues To Lead Nationally

Posted Oct 21, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by AP-GfK reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the Republican presidential field nationally with 30%, followed by Herman Cain at 26%, Rick Perry at 13%, Ron Paul at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 4%, Jon Huntsman at 2% and Rick Santorum at 2%.

Election 2012: Romney Leads In Nevada

Posted Oct 20, 2011 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

In another important early voting state, Nevada, Mitt Romney now leads the GOP field with 31%, followed by Herman Cain at 26% and Rick Perry at 12%. According to the survey by Project New West, Newt Gingrich comes in at 7%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 4%, Rick Santorum at 2% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

Election 2012: Romney Maintains Lead in New Hampshire

Posted Oct 19, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by InsiderAdvantage/Newsmax in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a solid lead over Herman Cain in the GOP presidential race, 39% to 24%; Ron Paul come in third at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Newt Gingrich at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5% and Rick Perry at 2%.

Election 2012: Cain With Solid Lead In Iowa

Posted Oct 18, 2011 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by InsiderAdvantage/Newsmax in Iowa reports that Herman Cain holds a solid lead over Mitt Romney, 26%, followed to 18%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Ron Paul at 10% and Rick Perry at 6%.

Cain With Slight Lead In South Carolina

Posted Oct 14, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by the American Research Group in South Carolina reports that Herman Cain has a tiny lead over Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential primary field: Cain is at 26%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 25%. Rick Perry is third at 15%.

PPP: Cain With National Lead

Posted Oct 13, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has now taken the national lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 30% to 22%, with Newt Gingrich at 15% and Rick Perry at 14%.The rest of the field remain in the single digits: Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul are tied for 5th at 5%, Jon Huntsman 7th at 2%, Rick Santorum 8th at 1%, and Gary Johnson 9th with less than 1%.

Election 2012: Cain Takes Lead In Iowa

Posted Oct 12, 2011 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has taken the lead in the Republican presidential race in Iowa with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 8% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

GOP Nomination 2012: Romney Leads Nationally

Posted Oct 11, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Washington Post/Bloomberg national reports that Mitt Romney now leads Herman Cain among likely Republican voters, 24% to 16%, with Rick Perry in third at 13%. All other candidates are in the single digits, except Jon Huntsman, who gets zero support.

Election 2012: Romney Surges In New Hampshire

Posted Oct 10, 2011 at 12:50 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by WMUR9 Granite State reports that Mitt Romney has surged ahead of the Republican presidential field in New Hampshire. Romney leads with 42%. Herman Cain, in second place, doesn't even come close at 13%. Ron Paul is at 11%, Rudy Giuliani at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Rick Perry at 4% and Newt Gingrich at 4%.

Election 2012: Romney Leads In Iowa

Posted Sep 30, 2011 at 12:15 AM by Maurice Berger

In a sign that Iowa GOP voters, who tend to be more socially conservative the other early primary and caucus states, are more interested in winning against President Obama than ideological purity, a new American Research Group poll in the state reports that Mitt Romney now leads the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at 12%. All other candidates are in the single digits.

Election 2012: Romney Retakes National Lead

Posted Sep 29, 2011 at 12:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Fox News poll reports a significant drop in support for Rick Perry nationally among GOP voters. Mitt Romney now leads the Republican presidential field with 23%, followed by Rick Perry at 19% and Herman Cain at 17%. Within the past 30-days, Romney is up by +1%, Perry is down -10% and Cain is up +6%. In the Fox poll, Newt Gingrich comes in at 11%, Ron Paul is at 6% and Michele Bachmann is at 3%.

Election 2012: Perry Continues To Lead Nationally

Posted Sep 27, 2011 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by CNN/Opinion Research survey reports that Rick Perry continues to lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Perry is ahead, with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Newt Gingrich at 11%, Herman Cain at 9%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Santorum at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 1%. In general election match ups, however, Romney fares best against President Obama, trailing by just one point, 49% to 48%; Obama holds a five point lead over Perry, 51% to 46%.

Perry Holds On To National Lead

Posted Sep 20, 2011 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by CBS News/New York Times poll, Rick Perry continues to lead Mitt Romney nationally in the GOP presidential race, 23% to 16%. well behind, Newt Gingrich comes in at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, Herman Cain at 5%, Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 1%, Rick Santorum at 1%.

Perry Maintains Wide National Lead

Posted Sep 15, 2011 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Rick Perry continues to hold a significant lead over Mitt Romney nationally in the Republican presidential race, 31% to 18%. As for the other candidates, Ron Paul comes in at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Herman Cain at 8%, and Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum both at 2%.

Another Poll Shows Perry In Lead For GOP Nomination

Posted Sep 13, 2011 at 1:56 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Economist/YouGov, Rick Perry continues to maintain a solid lead for the GOP presidential nomination at 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 13%, Rudy Giuliani at 9%, and Sarah Palin at 8%, Ron Paul at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5% and Herman Cain at 5%.

Election 2012: Perry Leads In Nevada

Posted Sep 08, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Magellan Strategies in Nevada reports that Rick Perry leads Mitt Romney by five points, 29% to 24%, in on e of the first states to vote in the 2012 contest for the GOP nomination. The rest of the field trails, with Herman Cain at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Ron Paul at 6%, Newt Gingrich at 5%, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman at 1% each. 19% are undecided.

Election 2012: President Obama In Tight Reelection Race

Posted Aug 26, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Gallup (of registered voters) reports that President Obama may be headed for a very tight reelection effort. Mitt Romney leads Obama, 48% to 46%, Rick Perry and Obama are tied at 47%, and Obama edges out Ron Paul, 47% to 45%, and tops Michele Bachmann, 48% to 44%.

Election 2012: Perry Now National GOP Frontrunner

Posted Aug 25, 2011 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

In a stunning realignment of the GOP presidential field, two new polls now show Texas Governor Rick Perry overtaking Mitt Romney as frontrunner. A survey by Gallup reports that Perry now leads the pack with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at 13% and Michele Bachmann at 10%. All other contenders are below 5% in support. And a new Public Policy Polling survey has Perry at 33%, Romney at 20%, Bachmann at 16%, Newt Gingrich at 8% and Herman Cain and Ron Paul at 6%.

Election 2012: Perry Takes Lead In Iowa

Posted Aug 24, 2011 at 3:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Iowa reports that Rick Perry now leads the GOP presidential nomination field with 22%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Michele Bachmann at 18%, Ron Paul at 16%. Herman Cain polls 7%; Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are at 5%; and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

GOP Nomination Race: Romney Ahead In Florida

Posted Aug 23, 2011 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by McLaughlin & Associates in Florida reports that Mitt Romney maintains a double-digit lead over the rest of the GOP presidential field: the former Massachusetts Governor comes in at 27%, followed by Rick Perry at 16%, and Michele Bachmann at 10%. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain trial at 5% each.

Election 2012: Rick Perry Leads In Iowa?

Posted Aug 19, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by We Ask America asked Iowa Republicans who they to see win the GOP nomination for president in 2012. The poll suggests that in the Hawkeye State, at least, there may be a new frontrunner: Rick Perry comes out on top with 29%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 17% and Mitt Romney at 15%.

Gallup: Romney Continues To Lead GOP Pack

Posted Aug 10, 2011 at 2:42 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Gallup Poll reports that Mitt Romney remains the frontrunner for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination with 24. He is followed by Rick Perry at 17%, Rep. Ron Paul at 14% and Rep. Michele Bachmann at 13%. All other GOP contenders are at single digits in the survey.

Bachmann Moves Into National Lead Among Republicans

Posted Jul 22, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Public Policy Polling national survey reports that Rep. Michele Bachmann has moved into a tiny, statistically insignificant, lead among likely Republican voters in the GOP presidential race. Bachmann tops the field with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 20%, Rick Perry at 12%, Herman Cain at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

Election 2012: Romney Ahead in SC Primary

Posted Jul 20, 2011 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released American Research Group poll in South Carolina reports that Mitt Romney holds a significant lead among likely Republican primary voters with 25%, followed by Sarah Palin at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 13%, Herman Cain at 10% and Rudy Giuliani and Rick Perry both at 6%,

Two More Polls Show Bachmann With Lead In Iowa

Posted Jul 15, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll of Iowa Republicans, this one from Magellan Strategies reports that Michele Bachmann holds a significant lead among likely caucus attendees with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 16%, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain at 8%, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 5% and Rick Santorum at 3%. 24% of respondents remain undecided. A Mason-Dixon poll in the state reports that Michele Bachmann leads among likely caucus-goers--though by a smaller margin--with 32%, followed by Mitt Romney at 29%, Tim Pawlenty at 7% and Rick Santorum at 6%.

Election 2012: Bachmann Ahead In Iowa?

Posted Jul 12, 2011 at 2:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey for the Iowa Republican reports that Michele Bachmann now leads the pack of 2012 GOP presidential contenders with 25%, followed by Mitt Romney at 21%, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain at 9%, Ron Paul at 6%, Newt Gingrich at 4%, Rick Santorum at 2% and John Hunstman at 1%.

New Hampshire 2012: Romney Leads, Bachmann Surges

Posted Jul 07, 2011 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential primary with 25%. The news is that the second placed candidate, Michele Bachmann, has surged in recent weeks, and now stands at 18%. Sarah Palin comes in at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry and Herman Cain at 7%, John Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Newt Gingrich at 4%. According to PPP: "Bachmann's surge in New Hampshire is being built on the back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of that movement she's leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%."

Election 2012: Romney Holds Huge Lead in NH

Posted Jul 06, 2011 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

A new WMUR Granite State Poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney maintains a huge lead in the 2012 GOP presidential primary: He now stands in the survey at 35%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 12%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rudy Giuliani at 7%, Rick Perry at 4%, Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin at 3%, and Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain at 2%.

Romney Remains Ahead

Posted Jul 05, 2011 at 2:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A Fox News poll reports that Mitt Romney leads the quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president with 18%, followed by Rick Perry at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rudy Giuliani at 10%, Sarah Palin at 8%, Ron Paul at 7% and Herman Cain at 5%. The remaining candidates get less than 5% combined of the vote.

Election 2012: Romney Ahead In Florida

Posted Jul 01, 2011 at 1:59 AM by Maurice Berger

Could the GOP Primary in Florida be decisive in next year's Republican quest for the nomination for president? A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida reports that Mitt Romney has a double digit lead for the GOP presidential nomination. He also maintains the lead in other early voting states, such as New Hampshire and (by a whisker), Iowa. In Florida, Romney leads with 27%, followed by Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann at 17%, Herman Cain at 10%,  Newt Gingrich at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

GOP Voters Lack Enthusiasm For Their Candidates

Posted Jun 30, 2011 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A New York Times/CBS News poll reports that GOP voters are not at all enthusiastic for the pack of 2012 contenders for the Republican nomination for president: 70% of GOP voters now express dissatisfaction with their candidates and wish they had more choices. Even the presumptive frontrunners--Mitt Romney and Rep. Michele Bachmann--could muster the enthusiasm of no more than 7% of Republican voters apiece.

Iowa Poll: Romney/Palin Nearly Tied

Posted Jun 27, 2011 at 1:59 AM by Maurice Berger

Good news for Mitt Romney in the year's first Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the Republican presidential field. While pundits have wondered whether Romney may be consrrvative enough to win the GOP Iowa Caucus, which tilts towards social conservatives, the poll has Romney in the lead at 23%. The bad news for the former Massachusetts Governor is that Michele Bachmann is nearly tied with him at 22% among likely Republican caucus-goers. They are followed by Herman Cain at 10%, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Election 2012: Romney Ahead In GOP Primary In CA

Posted Jun 22, 2011 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Field Poll in California reports: Mitt Romney "holds a solid lead over his 2012 GOP presidential rivals among the state's Republican voters . . . Romney is preferred by 25 percent of registered GOP voters, giving the former Massachusetts governor a double-digit lead over each of his challengers. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, viewed as Romney's leading competitor for the nomination, barely registered in the poll, earning just 3 percent support . . .

Romney's closest competition comes from two candidates who haven't even joined the race to deny Democratic President Obama a second term: former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (17 percent), and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (10 percent). If Giuliani is taken out of the field, Romney's lead widens - to 30 percent and a more than 2-to-1 lead over Palin at 12 percent in second position, the poll shows."

Another Poll Shows Romney Way Ahead In NH

Posted Jun 20, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll in New Hampshire, this one from Magellan Strategies reports that Mitt Romney holds a substantial lead over all potential GOP primary challengers with 42%: Rep. Ron Paul and Rep. Michelle Bachmann are tied at 10%, Sarah Palin comes in at 7%, Rudy Giuliani at 6% and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.

Romney Ahead In Nomination Battle, Trails Obama In General Election

Posted Jun 17, 2011 at 2:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reports that Mitt Romney is considerably ahead in his quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president: he now is at 30%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Herman Cain at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Newt Gingrich at 6%, Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum at 4% and Michele Bachmann at 3%. In a general election match up,
45% said they would probably vote to re-elect President Obama; 40% would opt for a generic Republican candidate. Against specific GOP contenders, the president's lead increased considerably, with Obama besting Romney, 49% to 43%.

Potential GOP Candidates Unpopular In Home States

Posted Jun 14, 2011 at 1:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that virtually all of the potential GOP candidates for president remain unpopular in their home states: "We've done polls in Massachusetts and Minnesota over the last couple weeks and found that Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Michele Bachmann are all unpopular in their home states. That's par for the course with this GOP Presidential field- we've polled on 9 of the candidates or potential candidates in their home states and only one of them is well liked- Gary Johnson in New Mexico."

Here's PPP's chart, from most popular to least popular:

Candidate (State)

Favorability

Net

Gary Johnson (New Mexico)

44/32

+12

Newt Gingrich (Georgia)

39/47

-8

Herman Cain (Georgia)

28/36

-8

Rick Perry (Texas)

42/50

-8

Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania)

37/47

-10

Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)

40/52

-12

Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota)

40/53

-13

Sarah Palin (Alaska)

33/58

-25

Michele Bachmann (Minnesota)

33/59

-26

Election 2012: Minnesotans Cool To The Idea Of Bachmann or Pawlenty Presidential Run

Posted Jun 07, 2011 at 3:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Two GOP Minnesota politicians are considering a race for president in 2012: Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty. What do the people of the state think about this. A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Minnesota voters are, at best, cool to the idea: "Only 28% think Pawlenty should seek the White House to 17% who think he should run for the Senate and 45% who think he shouldn't run for anything. There's even less interest in a Bachmann Presidential run -- 14% think she should seek that office to 23% who think she should run for the Senate, 10% who think she should run for reelection to her House seat, and 47% who just want her to go away."

Election 2012: Romney and Palin In Lead for GOP Nomination

Posted Jun 03, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

Public Policy Polling national survey of the strength of potential candidates for the 2012 GOP nomination reports that with Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump out of the race, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin are now leading the pack with 16% each. Tim Pawlenty is at 13%, Herman Cain at 12% and Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul at 9%.

Huckabee Leads In Iowa

Posted Apr 08, 2011 at 12:09 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Neighborhood Research poll of likely Iowa Republican presidential caucus-goers reports that Mike Huckabee leads the GOP pack with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 14%, Donald Trump at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 8%, Sarah Palin at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 5% and Tim Pawlenty at 4%.