Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

9 July Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jul 09, 2015 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 9 July 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Marco Rubio

3. Scott Walker

4. Donald Trump

5. Rand Paul

6. John Kasich

7. Mike Huckabee

8. George Pataki

9. Carly Fiorina

10. Ted Cruz

11. Bobby Jindal

12. Ben Carson

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. Chris Christie

16. Rick Perry

19 June Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jun 19, 2015 at 4:07 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 19 June 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Jeb Bush

3. Marco Rubio

4. Rand Paul

5. John Kasich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. George Pataki

8. Ted Cruz

9. Rick Santorum

10. Carly Fiorina

11. Ben Carson

12. Lindsey Graham

13. Chris Christie

14. Donald Trump

15. Rick Perry

1 June Ranking Of GOP 2016 Presidential Contenders

Posted Jun 01, 2015 at 11:08 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 1 June 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Jeb Bush

3. Marco Rubio

4. Rand Paul

5. Mike Huckabee

6. John Kasich

7. Ted Cruz

8. Rick Santorum

9. Lindsey Graham

10. Carly Fiorina

11. Ben Carson

12. Chris Christie

13. Rick Perry

12 May 2015: PollTrack's Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Nomination Fight

Posted May 12, 2015 at 4:03 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 12 May 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Jeb Bush

3. Rand Paul

4. Marco Rubio

5. Mike Huckabee

6. John Kasich

7. Ted Cruz

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ben Carson

10. Chris Christie

11. Rick Santorum

12. Rick Perry

2016 Prrsidential Race: Who Do Iowans Prefer?

Posted Dec 17, 2013 at 8:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll out from the Des Moines Register reports that Rep. Paul Ryan "is wildly popular here with a 73% favorable rating, a surprise finding that reveals he's at the forefront of potential 2016 GOP presidential candidates in the nation's kickoff voting state." The Democratic horse race shows an even clearer favorite in a state that registers its preferences in the party nominating process earlier than any other: Ryans' popularity "isn't as striking as the overwhelming affinity Iowa Democrats have for Hillary Clinton, with 89% saying they have a positive opinion of her. Just 7% of voting-age Democrats have a negative impression the former U.S. secretary of state and U.S. senator from New York."

GOP Frontrunner: 2016?

Posted Nov 16, 2012 at 9:36 AM by Maurice Berger

GOP Frontrunner: 2016? Sounds a bit early to be thinking about this, given the very recent conclusion of Election 2012. But that doesn't stop Republican and Democratic insiders from thinking about the next presidential election. A survey by National Journal Political Insiders reports that Republican and Democratic party operatives and observers have differing views when it comes to the question of who might be the strongest Republican to run for president in 2016. GOP insiders: Marco Rubio 40%, Jeb Bush 27%, Paul Ryan 9%, Rick Santorum 9%, Chris Christie 8%. Democratic insiders: Jeb Bush 47%, Chris Christie 28%, Marco Rubio 13%. 

Debate Snap Polls: Obama Won

Posted Oct 17, 2012 at 9:53 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is the verdict of three snap polls on last night's debate: these so-called instant polls all report that President Obama--to one extent or another--won last night's debate: CBS News had Obama besting Romney 37% to 30%, at CNN Obama came out ahead at 46% to 39%, and a Lake Research poll in the battleground states found Obama up 53% to 38%. Keep in mind that voter perceptions of debates often shift as succeeding news cycles parse the outcome. In the first presidential debate and vice-presidential debate, initial results reported a closer result, while subsequent polling in the days following reported far bigger leads for both Mitt Romney and Joe Biden. Will Obama's edge expand or decline? Stay tuned.

Is Romney's Momentum Slowing?

Posted Oct 12, 2012 at 9:30 AM by Maurice Berger

With yesterday's  Rasmussen survey showing the President with a +1% lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney--the poll normally has a slight GOP tilt--PollTrack wonders if Romney's momentum from last week's debate is slowing down. Other trackers have also showed movement back towards Obama, but with Romney holding onto an aggregate lead of less than 1%.

Swing state polls have been fairly erratic, with some polls showing a substantial lead for one candidate or another (from +6% for Obama in Ohio to +7% for Romney in Florida) to a virtual tie. In many instances, polls are alternately reporting leads for both candidates in the same state (most polls show Obama leading in Ohio, others give Romney a slight lead; in Florida, it is just the opposite, with one poll showing Romney up by +7%, another Obama up by +4%.

What these numbers suggest is a race in flux, a degree of statistical noise due to a major event in this past week's news cycle (the president's poor debate performance) and a shifting enthusiasm gap, with GOP voters now more revved up than Democrats. Has Vice-President Biden's feisty debate performance fired up unhappy Democrats? Has Rep. Ryan's cool resolve added to the sense of a GOP ticket on the rise? Did either performance move the needle with independent voters? A few more days of polling should give us a better sense of the direction of the race leading into next week's presidential debate in New York.

Voters Have Mixed View of Ryan

Posted Aug 30, 2012 at 9:46 AM by Maurice Berger

Voters have a mixed view of Rep. Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney's VP pick. According to a new Gallup poll, 38% say their opinion is favorable, and 36% saying it is unfavorable.With a sizable portion of the electorate undecided in their view of Romney, there may be room for his overall numbers to rise after yesterday's convention speech and the national exposure it provides. Still, the candidate's overall favorable number is relatively low for a VP candidate.

Only 17% of Adults Say That Ryan Makes Them More Likely To Vote For GOP Ticket

Posted Aug 14, 2012 at 9:10 AM by Maurice Berger

In yesterday's USA Today/Gallup poll on voter attitudes about Mitt Romney's pick of Paul Ryan, another interesting detail: "The poll also finds 17% of adults say they are more likely to vote for Romney in November because Ryan is his running mate -- about the same impact Sarah Palin had for John McCain four years ago among registered voters." If these numbers hold up, PollTrack believes that Romney's selection could be a significant drag on the ticket. Still, Ryan is relatively unknown to many sectors of the electorate, has his formidable campaign skills have not been tested. PollTrack will be monitoring closely polling on Ryan and his effect on the GOP ticket.

USA Today/Gallup: Ryan Not A Popular Choice

Posted Aug 13, 2012 at 11:01 AM by Maurice Berger

The first poll out of the gate to test the strength of Romney's choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate suggests that the pick may not boost the prospects of the GOP ticket. The poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that "more of the public gives [Ryan] lower marks than high ones. Ryan, a Wisconsin congressman, is seen as only a 'fair' or 'poor' choice by 42% of Americans vs. 39% who think he is an "excellent" or "pretty good" vice presidential choice.  . . . USA TODAY/Gallup Polls of registered voters after the announcements of running mates since Dick Cheney in 2000 all showed more positive reactions. Only Dan Quayle in a 1988 Harris Poll of likely voters was viewed less positively than Ryan, with 52% rating Quayle as a "fair" or "poor" vice presidential choice. The Ryan poll includes all adults, not just registered voters." PollTrack cautions that snap polls often do not take into account the much longer process of voter assessment of candidates. Still, these numbers suggest a problem for the Romney campaign if they persist.

Wisconsin vs Ohio: Another Note About Paul Ryan

Posted Aug 13, 2012 at 9:36 AM by Maurice Berger

Some commentators have pointed out that the selection of Paul Ryan as Romney's VP candidate may help the GOP team win Wisconsin. While this may be true, the current polling in the state suggests that Ryan may indeed give Romney a modest boost in the state, but not enough to hand the state to the Republicans. Stay tuned to see if future polling suggests a change in this dynamic.

PollTrack has another observation, however: Romney can win election 2012 without Wisconsin (Bush won both the 2000 and 2004 cycles without the state). But is it almost inconceivable according to PollTrack's calculation, that Romney-Ryan can emerge victorious without Ohio (not Republican in modern times has won the presidency without it). With this in mind, would Rob Portman have been a better choice for the Romney campaign  political figure who remains very popular in his home state?


PollTrack: Some Notes On The Ryan Pick

Posted Aug 12, 2012 at 10:22 AM by Maurice Berger

Mitt Romney selection of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan--while an early and dramatic turn in election 2012--may not prove decisive to the outcome. (Few VP picks are.) But PollTrack's biggest caution: do not read too much into polls about the pick. While hardening public opinion can doom or boost a candidate--and the Obama campaign's attempt to define Romney has definitely resulted in a negative downturn in Romney's likeability numbers that may be very difficult to reverse at this point--the true contours of a presidential election often do not become clear until after both party's nominating conventions.

Right now, PollTrack sees the choice of Ryan as a possible net minus for the Romney campaign for one reason: senior voters.

Older voters represent a key and often enthusiastic demographic for the GOP. Yet a recent poll by AARP reports that in the race is tied in the over 50 demographic. This suggests a fundamental problem for Romney. Adding a candidate to the Republican ticket who openly (and unambiguously) calls for a radical restructuring of Medicare and who has referred to Social Security as a "ponzi scheme," and senior voters may have reason to rethink the GOP team. A sharp diminution of support among senior voters (especially voters over 65, who are often the most reliable voters), could spell trouble for Romney-Ryan in the fall. Will Ryan's considerable gifts as a campaigner offset this potential problem? Stay tuned.