Posted Dec 11, 2013 at 8:24 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted Dec 05, 2013 at 8:11 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Harvard Institute of Politics of 18 to 29-years old voters reports that 52% would vote to recall President Obama.
Posted Nov 26, 2013 at 9:15 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by CNN/ORC reports that only 40% of Americans believe President Obama can manage the federal government effectively, a -12% decline since June.
Posted Nov 25, 2013 at 8:13 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by CNN/ORC reports that 41% of Americans approve of President Obama's job performance, his lowest number in CNN polling to date. 56% disapprove, an all-time high in CNN surveys.
Posted Nov 20, 2013 at 9:27 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by ABC News-Washington Post reports that in a hypothetical rematch of the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney would come out ahead of President Obama, 49% to 45%.
Posted Nov 13, 2013 at 12:04 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Quinnipiac reports that American voters disapprove of the job President Obama is doing by 54% to 39%. This represents his lowest approval rating since he took office in 2009. Particularly worrying for the president: women disapprove of his performance by a margin of 51% to 40%.
Posted Nov 07, 2013 at 8:45 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Pew Research reports that only 19% of Americans trust the government in
Washington to "do what is right just about always or most of the time," a drop of +7% since January.
Posted Oct 18, 2013 at 7:48 AM by Maurice Berger
A Des Moines Register Iowa Poll reports that the President's job approval rating is faltering on the state: 58% of Iowa adults say they disapprove of the job he's doing; just 39% approve."
Posted Oct 17, 2013 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Fox News suggests that Federal government shutdown may have improved the President's standing with Americans. The survey reports that Obama's overall job rating has improved +5% over last month: 45% now approve, up from 40% in September.
Posted Oct 03, 2013 at 8:23 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by CBS News poll reports that 72% of Americans disapprove of the shut down of the federal government over the Affordable Care Act while 25% approve. The survey also notes: "Republicans in Congress receive more of the blame for the shutdown: 44% of Americans blame them, while 35% put more blame on President Obama and the Democrats in Congress. These views are virtually the same as they were last week before the shutdown, when Americans were asked who they would blame if a shutdown occurred."
Posted Sep 12, 2013 at 7:52 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a poll by CNN/ORC International "even though eight in 10 Americans believe that the Bashar al-Assad regime gassed its own people, a strong majority doesn't want Congress to pass a resolution authorizing a military strike against the regime. . . . More than seven in 10 say such a strike would not achieve significant goals for the U.S. and a similar amount say it's not in the national interest for the U.S. to get involved in Syria's bloody two-year long civil war."
Posted Sep 11, 2013 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger
A poll by NBC reports that President Obama's job-approval rating has dropped to 44%, which is tied for his lowest mark in past surveys over his entire term. His approval rating on foreign policy is even lower, with just 41% approving of his handling of the issue, an all-time low.
Posted Sep 06, 2013 at 1:52 PM by Maurice Berger
A new Pew Research survey reports that President Obama "faces an uphill battle in making the case for U.S. military action in Syria. By a 48% to 29% margin, more Americans oppose than support conducting military airstrikes against Syria in response to reports that the Syrian government used chemical weapons." The breakdown in party affiliation shows most voters opposed: "Just 29% of Democrats favor conducting airstrikes against Syria while 48% are opposed. Opinion among independents is similar (29% favor, 50% oppose). Republicans are more divided, with 35% favoring airstrikes and 40% opposed."
Posted Jul 24, 2013 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by McClatchy-Marist reports that just 41% of Americans approve of the job President Obama is doing in office; 48% disapprove; and 11% are unsure. These numbers represent Obama's lowest approval rating since September 2011 when only 39% of voters approved of his performance.
Posted Jul 16, 2013 at 8:42 PM by Maurice Berger
According to a new poll by Quinnipiac, 51% of Americans say that the GOP is responsible for gridlock in Washington, D.C. Only 35% percent believe that it is President Obama who "lacks the skills to convince leaders of Congress to work together."
Posted Jul 15, 2013 at 9:28 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Quinnipiac reports that President Obama now has a net negative approval rating, with 44% approving of his job performance and 48% disapproving.
Posted Jul 10, 2013 at 7:48 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Gallup reports that "although Americans rate President Barack Obama highest on being likable (76%) among a set of personal characteristics, those views are not strongly related to their overall approval of the job he is doing as president. Instead, two other characteristics he scores well on -- displaying good judgment in a crisis (58%) and being honest and trustworthy (55%) -- do relate highly to his overall job approval rating. Perceptions that Obama "shares your values" are the strongest predictor of approval, but his score on that dimension, 48%, is only average on a relative basis." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Jun 26, 2013 at 8:07 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Quinnipiac in Ohio reports that President Obama's job approval has dropped to 40%, with 57% disapproving, his lowest rating ever in the state.
Posted Jun 05, 2013 at 12:15 PM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Quinnipiac poll reports that of the three controversies associated with the President -- Benghazi, IRS targeting, and the seizing of reporter phone records -- 44% of voters see the IRS probe as the most significant. 24% cite Benghazi and 15% the records seizure.
Posted May 22, 2013 at 6:21 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Washington Post-ABC News reports that President Obama's approval rating continues to remain steady at 51% to 44%, despite "fresh disclosures about the IRS, the Benghazi attack and the Justice Department's secret collection of telephone records of Associated Press journalists as part of a leak investigation."
Posted May 14, 2013 at 4:25 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Pew Research poll reports mixed results on voter's attitudes about President Obama's performance in office: just 49% believes that President Obama is "able to get things done," a steep decline from 57% in January and closer to his levels of confidence in 2012. Conversely, and a net positive for the president, the vast majority of Americans, 67%, believe Obama is fighting hard for his policies, a significant improvement.
Posted Apr 17, 2013 at 9:04 AM by Maurice Berger
A new study by Harvard University factors race into the final popular vote tally of the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and and concludes that "racial animus in the United States appears to have cost Obama roughly four percentage points of the national popular vote" in both races.
Posted Mar 27, 2013 at 8:09 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Pew Research suggests further erosion of President Obama's job approval rating. Since the period just after his re-election, his approval numbet has dropped from 55% to 47%, "as the public's economic expectations for the coming year have soured"
Posted Mar 15, 2013 at 8:22 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a poll by McClatchy-Marist, President Obama "had piled up political capital with his impressive re-election, it's largely gone. His approval rating has dropped to the lowest level in more than a year, with more voters now turning thumbs down on his performance than thumbs up." The survey continues: "The measure of how much people like him also has dropped. He's still vastly more popular than Congress, particularly congressional Republicans. But in the biggest political clash of the year - over the federal budget and how to curb deficits - voters split 44 percent to 42 percent between preferring Congress or Obama. At least some of the president's fall to Earth lies in the fact that voters no longer see him in the context of an election. He has to stand alone in the eyes of voters again and doesn't benefit from the comparison with Republican rival Mitt Romney."
Posted Mar 14, 2013 at 7:18 AM by Maurice Berger
According to new poll from Washington Post-ABC News, President Obama's approval rate has dropped -5% in the last month to 50%. ABC News reports that his advantage after his reelection "appears to have vanished as increasingly negative views among Americans about his stewardship of the economy have forced his public approval rating back down to the 50 percent mark. . . In December, just after he won a second term, Obama held an 18-percentage-point advantage over congressional Republicans on the question of whom the public trusted more to deal with the economy. Now, it's a far more even split -- 44% to 40%, with a slight edge for the president -- but the share of those saying they have confidence in "neither" has ticked up into double digits."
Posted Mar 05, 2013 at 1:46 PM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by NBC News/Wall Street Journal reports that a meager 29% say they agree "with most" of what Republicans in Congress have proposed. 45% say this about President for Obama and 40% about congressional Democrats. To further the sense that the GOP brand may be in trouble, the survey also found that only 29% of respondents have a favorable view of the Republican Party as opposed to 49% for Obama and 41% for the Democratic Party.
Posted Mar 04, 2013 at 9:37 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Harper Polling of likely voters reports that Republicans, by a modest plurality, are seen as most responsible for the sequester, 46% to 40%.
Posted Feb 27, 2013 at 8:24 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Bloomberg National Poll reports that President Obama has achieved his highest job approval in three years. 55% of Americans now approve of his performance in office, the strongest support since Sept 2009.
Posted Feb 11, 2013 at 11:00 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted Feb 07, 2013 at 9:56 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that 20% of Texans -- including 35% of Republicans -- would support their state seceding from the Union. The number is up from 14% in September 2011, and is in the wake of President Obama's re-election in November.
Posted Jan 30, 2013 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger
Which US county gave President Obama his largest percentage of the vote in the 2012 Election? Was it a county in New York? Vermont? Washington, DC? The answer, according to Josh Green, is "Shannon County, tucked into the southwest corner of South Dakota with a population of about 13,000. Ninety-three percent of the county's voters supported Obama, the highest percentage of any county in the country."
Posted Jan 28, 2013 at 7:30 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup, "during his fourth year in office, an average of 86% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans approved of the job Barack Obama did as president. That 76-percentage-point gap ties George W. Bush's fourth year as the most polarized years in Gallup records."
Posted Jan 24, 2013 at 7:50 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new survey by Gallup, "Americans' immediate reaction to President Barack Obama's proposals for new laws designed to reduce gun violence is more positive than negative, with 53% saying they would want their representative in Congress to vote for the set of proposed new laws, while 41% say their representative should vote against them."
Posted Jan 23, 2013 at 8:58 AM by Maurice Berger
In its analysis of its recent approval polling for the president, the New York Times/CBS News observes that the President's "job approval rating is similar to that of George W. Bush at the start of his second term, but much lower than the ratings of the previous two presidents who served eight years. (President Bill Clinton's approval rate was 60 percent in January 1997 and Ronald Reagan's was 62 percent in January 1985.) More than 8 in 10 Democrats approve of his job performance, 8 in 10 Republicans disapprove and independents are evenly divided."
Posted Jan 18, 2013 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 52% of Americans approve of President Obama's overall job performance.
Posted Jan 09, 2013 at 8:53 AM by Maurice Berger
From Gallup: "Americans again this year name Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama as the Most Admired Woman and Most Admired Man living in any part of the world. Clinton has been the Most Admired Woman each of the last 11 years, and Obama has been the Most Admired Man five years in a row. First lady Michelle Obama, Oprah Winfrey, and Condoleezza Rice are next in line behind Clinton on the Most Admired Woman list, while Nelson Mandela, Mitt Romney, Billy Graham, George W. Bush, and Pope Benedict XVI follow Obama as Most Admired Man." Here is Gallup' chart:
Posted Jan 08, 2013 at 8:46 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a survey by Gallup, "Americans have a decidedly mixed reaction to the "fiscal cliff" agreement reached by Congress and signed into law by President Barack Obama this week, with 43% saying they approve and 45% saying they disapprove. Two-thirds of Democrats approve of the agreement, while almost as many Republicans disapprove. Independents are slightly more likely to disapprove than approve." For more on the poll, click here.
Posted Jan 07, 2013 at 8:39 AM by Maurice Berger
With nearly all of the votes counted in the 2012 presidential, President Obama has won 51.1% of the vote -- against challenger Mitt Romney, who took 47.2% of the total. This represents an historical milestone: Obama is the first president to achieve that level of support in two elections since President Dwight D. Eisenhower was re-elected in 1956. He is also only one of three presidents to do so in the twentienth century, the other being Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
Posted Jan 03, 2013 at 9:53 AM by Maurice Berger
With many speculating that Hillary Clinton will mount another run for president in 2016, NY Governor Andrew Cuomo appears also to be weighing his options. Will the Governor's sky-high popularity in his home state increase his standing within the Democratic party? Or is Senator Clinton unstoppable? A recent poll by Quinnipiac in New York reports that Cuomo holds a stunning 74% to 13% approval rating, his highest score to date and the latest in a six-month string of 70+ percent positive ratings. But it is the demographic breakdown of these number that may add fuel to the Cuomo presidential bandwagon: 68% (to 18%) of Republicans and 70% (to 12%) of independent voters also approve of the way he is handling his job. In the end, New York is not a good indicator of national sentiment and popularity: there, it is Sen. Clinton who holds the edge, with a national approval rating at nearly 70%, higher than her husband or the president.
Posted Dec 26, 2012 at 10:51 AM by Maurice Berger
In an analysis of the popular and electoral vote in Election 2012, The Fix reports that while Republicans had a "major Latino problem,"it didn't cost them the election: "Mitt Romney would have needed to carry as much as 51% of the Hispanic vote in order to win the Electoral College -- a number no Republican presidential candidate on record has been able to attain and isn't really within the realm of possibility these days."
Posted Dec 21, 2012 at 8:43 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Gallup reports that President Obama's approval rating now stands at 56%, his highest mark on that question since October 2009; only 37% disapprove of his job performance.
Posted Dec 20, 2012 at 12:04 PM by Maurice Berger
According to an analysis by the Los Angeles Times, "More than five weeks after election day, almost all the presidential votes have been counted. Here's what the near-final tally reveals: The election really wasn't close." The Times continues: "In the weeks since the election, as states have completed their counts, Obama's margin has grown steadily. From just over 2 percentage points, it now stands at nearly 4. Rather than worry about the Bush-Kerry precedent, White House aides now brag that Obama seems all but certain to achieve a mark hit by only five others in U.S. history - winning the presidency twice with 51% or more of the popular vote."
Posted Dec 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by Bloomberg reports that President Obama's job approval has improved to 53%, his highest level in three years, when his approval rating was 54%.
Posted Dec 18, 2012 at 9:43 AM by Maurice Berger
According to new poll by Pew Research that when it comes to the reaching an agreement to avoid the "fiscal cliff," 55% say President Obama is making a credible effort to work with Republicans to reach a deficit deal; just 32% say the same about GOP leaders.
Posted Dec 17, 2012 at 9:16 AM by Maurice Berger
A poll by NBC News/Wall Street Journal reports that almost two-thirds of Americans say they favor a balanced deal to reduce the deficit -- consisting of both higher tax rates and cuts to key entitlement programs. In a key finding in the survey, 65% believe that congressional leaders should make compromises to deal with the budget deficit. The support for compromise is broad and wide: 68% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 56% of political independents support this position.
Posted Dec 12, 2012 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger
Did Hurricane Sandy Blunt Romney's Momentum? According to former Romney strategist Stuart Stevens, the campaign lost momentum in the final week as Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast: "After the storm, I never had a good feeling. Not that the storm impacted things so much, per se, but these races -- a race like this is a lot like an NBA game. It's all about ball control at the end... We went from having these big rallies around the country to literally sitting around in hotel rooms and there was just nothing we could do about it." PollTrack must point out, however, that at no point during the last three months of the 2012 election cycle did its own analysis of the race--and its polling averages--indicate enough momentum for Romney to suggest a possible win. Indeed, PollTrack's Election Maps never showed Obama dropping below the 270-mark nor Romney rising above it, even after the President's sub-par debate performance in Denver in early-October.
Posted Dec 11, 2012 at 10:04 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new survey by Quinnipiac, voters trust Obama and Democrats more than Republicans, by a 53% to 36% margin, to avoid the "fiscal cliff." Pollster Peter Brown writes: "Voters see Republicans as more likely to be obstructionist, and have less confidence in their ability to come up with the right solution to the nation's financial woes."
Posted Dec 10, 2012 at 9:54 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new poll by Associated Press-GfK, President Obama's approval rating now stands at 57%, the highest since May 2011, when
U.S. Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden. The president received a clear post-election bounce of + 5%, since 6 November. Overall perceptions of the health of the nation have also improved, with more Americans believing that the nation is heading in the right direction than at any time since the start of President Obama's first term.
Posted Dec 03, 2012 at 9:45 AM by Maurice Berger
As of late last week, President Obama's national lead over Mitt Romney rose to 50.9% to 47.4%. As NBC First Read notes: "That's a bigger (and more decisive) margin that Bush's victory over John Kerry in 2004 (which was Bush 50.7% and Kerry 48.2%). What's more, the president's lead has grown to close to 3 points in Ohio, 4 points in Virginia and 6 points in Colorado. One doesn't win Colorado by six points without winning swing voters; there isn't a big-enough Democratic base to make that argument."
Posted Nov 28, 2012 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A new CNN/ORC poll reports that 54% disapprove of the White House's handling of the attacks in Benghazi. But an equal majority, 54%, also do not believe that the administration purposefully misled the public.
Posted Nov 20, 2012 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger
One hot election that PollTrack will be analyzing next year: The New Jersey gubernatorial race. The race may be both lively and consequential, pitting two of the state's most popular politicians against each other, incumbent GOP governor, Chris Christie and Democratic Newark Mayor Corey Booker. Here a teaser from the New Republic: "That perhaps the two most compelling politicians in America hail from the same state is dramatic enough. Now consider that soon they may be running against each other. . . . Visions of a Booker-Christie match-up make political junkies weak at the knees... There are no nationwide campaigns next year, and just two gubernatorial seats are up for grabs, so this race--hypothetical though it remains--would have America's attention. Money would flow: Both are beloved by Wall Street and, having campaigned on other candidates' behalf, are loaded with IOUs from political fundraisers around the country. Coverage would be nonstop: Both are extraordinarily talented at handling the microphone and delivering social media-optimized sound bites. And the stakes would be high: Both have designs on the presidency, and are aware of the benefits of handing the other a premature political death." PollTrack adds that the race may also serve as an early moratorium on President Obama's second term much as this year's other big race: Governor of Virginia.
Posted Nov 14, 2012 at 8:14 AM by Maurice Berger
Rasmussen Reports had Mitt Romney leading President Obama for most of the last month of the election--and by one-point, in its final tally--and also picked the winner in just three of nine swing states. In an attempt to explain away the problem--only two pollsters out of 30, the other being Gallup, had Romney ahead in their final survey--blamed it on demographics: "A preliminary review indicates that one reason for this is that we underestimated the minority share of the electorate. In 2008, 26% of voters were non-white. We expected that to remain relatively constant. However, in 2012, 28% of voters were non-white. That was exactly the share projected by the Obama campaign. It is not clear at the moment whether minority turnout increased nationally, white turnout decreased, or if it was a combination of both. The increase in minority turnout has a significant impact on the final projections since Romney won nearly 60% of white votes while Obama won an even larger share of the minority vote . . . Another factor may be related to the generation gap. It is interesting to note that the share of seniors who showed up to vote was down slightly from 2008 while the number of young voters was up slightly."
PollTrack wonders why many other pollsters, from the more traditional phone/cellphone poll of ABC News to the online Google Consumer Survey, were far more accurate in assessing the demographic makeup of the electorate, including party affiliation (Both ABC and Google came very close to the actual outcome). Why did so many other pollsters get it right (or at least come close)? If President Obama wins by +3%, as appears to be the case with the inclusion of late ballots from California and Ohio (among other states), then Rasmussen (and Gallup) will have been off by +4% in their prediction of the outcome of election 2012, just hours before Americans began voting. This is a very large miss for two well-respected polling organizations.
Posted Nov 12, 2012 at 9:16 AM by Maurice Berger
In "The Case of the Missing White Voters, Sean Trende writes: "For Republicans, that despair now comes from an electorate that seems to have undergone a sea change. In the 2008 final exit polls (unavailable online), the electorate was 75 percent white, 12.2 percent African-American, 8.4 percent Latino, with 4.5 percent distributed to other ethnicities. We’ll have to wait for this year’s absolute final exit polls to come in to know the exact estimate of the composition this time, but right now it appears to be pegged at about 72 percent white, 13 percent black, 10 percent Latino and 5 percent 'other.'” PollTrack points out that a +3% drop off of such a large Demographic was very significant in this election, representing one of the most important factors in Obama's victory.
Posted Nov 09, 2012 at 10:08 AM by Maurice Berger
Our latest projection of votes still outstanding in Florida suggest that President Obama will win the state by slightly under a percentage point.
Posted Nov 08, 2012 at 10:12 AM by Maurice Berger
We still await final results from Florida. The race is still razor close. Provisional ballots are slowly being counted. PollTrack called 50 out of 50 States (that includes DC's 3-EVs) correctly. Will Florida make it 51? Right now, it looks like Obama may squeak out a victory there. Stay tuned.
Posted Nov 07, 2012 at 2:53 PM by Maurice Berger
How did PollTrack do, in terms of correctly predicting the outcome of Election 2012?
As for our Presidential Maps, we correctly predicted the outcome of all of the 50 races decided as of this morning. We await word in Florida, the one state that PollTrack noted--on Monday evening--was very difficult to call.
As for our US Senate Race Chart, PollTrack predicted 32 out of 33 races.
Posted Nov 07, 2012 at 9:31 AM by Maurice Berger
Above is the revised electoral count as of 9:30 AM this morning.
Posted Nov 07, 2012 at 9:29 AM by Maurice Berger
AS it turns out, the only state that PollTrack "missed" turns out to be Too-Close-To-Call as of this morning. On Monday evening, the state appeared so close in aggregate polling that it was the last to be called by this website (late-Monday evening). PollTrack called it for Romney based on last-minute polling. In which column will it wind up? Stay tuned.
Posted Nov 07, 2012 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger
Florida was the final state called last night by PollTrack. Florida was the most difficult call for PollTrack. And out of 51 Electoral Races--from Washington, D.C. to Alaska--Florida is the only race called incorrectly by PollTrack.
50 out of 51 races. Not bad.
Thank you, loyal supporters of PollTrack! And thank you for your patience through today's server problems.
Until tomorrow morning.
Posted Nov 07, 2012 at 12:31 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama is now projected to win in Virginia.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 11:51 PM by Maurice Berger
President Obama wins Nevada.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 11:40 PM by Maurice Berger
Mitt Romney wins North Carolina.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 10:44 PM by Maurice Berger
Key precincts in Colorado suggest a slight advantage for President Obama, counties where he is equaling or improving his numbers from 2008.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 10:31 PM by Maurice Berger
A state he is expected to carry.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 10:30 PM by Maurice Berger
Decidedly. The math continues to suggest a difficult road ahead for Romney.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 10:07 PM by Maurice Berger
. . . the electoral math just got a bit steeper for Mitt Romney. With Florida looking increasingly difficult for Romney--the vast majority of uncounted votes are in heavily Democratic counties--we're at the point where it may be mathematically impossible for the GOP nominee to reach the major number of 270.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:54 PM by Maurice Berger
Exit polling and results from key precincts suggests that Ohio is leaning towards President Obama.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:42 PM by Maurice Berger
So much for Mitt Romney late strategy of vying for the traditionally Democratic states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, both states now called for President Obama by NBC. (PA was just called by CNN).
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:22 PM by Maurice Berger
Florida vote totals now stand at 50% to 50%. But as John King points out on CNN, the vast majority of precincts that have not yet reported are in the Democratic strongholds of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. Might PollTrack have gotten Florida wrong? Time will tell.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:09 PM by Maurice Berger
That Michigan wall called quickly--suggesting a substantial lead in the state for Obama--matters. Given the voting pattern of neighboring states, each reflective of a regional wave of demographics, voting patterns, and history, a big win in Michigan bodes well for Obama in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and even, to an extent, Ohio. This is the first sign that the president's "Midwest firewall" may, in fact, be holding.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 8:47 PM by Maurice Berger
Between key precincts and the first wave of exit polling (thus incomplete), PollTrack believes that President Obama is in a better strategic position than Mitt Romney to reach 270 Electoral Votes. Still, it will be a long night, before actual votes can confirm or deny this.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 8:35 PM by Maurice Berger
With Romney doing better than McCain in key GOP-leaning precincts and Obama matching his 2008 totals in Democratic precincts--not to mention a first-wave of exit polling that reports that race at 49% to 49%--Virginia promises to be close. We're keeping a watchful eye on these numbers. Like Florida, a must-win state for Romney but not for Obama.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 8:18 PM by Maurice Berger
In tonight's returns, Romney is holding his own and the president is matching (or in a few cases) exceeding his vote totals from 2008. PollTrack will watch these numbers very closely. The state promises to be close (PollTrack found this state the most difficult to call). Obama does not need this state to win, but it is crucial to Romney's chances. So a lot is riding on Florida for the GOP nominee.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 8:15 PM by Maurice Berger
Early returns from key precincts in Ohio, as well as exit polls and the demographic breakdown of the electorate, suggest that president Obama is keeping up with his pace in 2008, yet another sign that the state may be difficult for Romney to capture. Stay tuned.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 8:08 PM by Maurice Berger
According to Exit Polls in Pennsylvania, on the question of who would do a better job of handling Medicare, the president holds a slight lead: 49% to 47%. Yet, in a state with a very large share of senior voters, this number may suggest a dampening of support for Romney among a demographic that has formed the backbone of the Republican party. With Exit Polls reporting a +4% lead for Obama in the state, it appear that Romney faces an uphill battle.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 7:48 PM by Maurice Berger
A sampling of several key precincts in Virginia suggest that President Obama maintains similar totals to his 2008 numbers--a possible ominous sign for Romney in a must-win state for him.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 7:35 PM by Maurice Berger
According to Exit Polls in North Carolina, the President and Romney are tied: 49% to 49%. Once again, if Romney does not have a clear lead in GOP-leaning NC, how will he do in states less Republican (like Ohio) or slightly Democratic leaning, such as Iowa and Wisconsin.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 7:32 PM by Maurice Berger
39% of voters in Ohio today were Democrats, a number that GOP-leaning commentators argued would not be achieved. Is this enough to put President Obama over the top in the state? With Exit Polls suggesting a +3% lead for Obama--51% to 48%--Romney's prospects appear to have dimmed somewhat.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 7:11 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack has a question about Virginia: if the exit polls are right--and it is 49% to 49% in the state--how will Mitt Romney fair in states that are far less GOP-leaning, like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and, even, Ohio?
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 7:00 PM by Maurice Berger
Exit Polling in Virginia suggests a possible slight edge for President Obama, especially with regard to the racial makeup of the electorate in the state, attitudes about the administration, and the sharp drop in evangelical Christian voters, from 28% in 2008 to 21% now. Stay Tuned.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 6:13 PM by Maurice Berger
A possible problem for Mitt Romney: the percentage of white voters in this election appears to be the same as 2008: 73%. Given Obama's enormous advantage with voters of color--and an increase in support among Hispanics (and, according to exit polls, a bump up to 10% participation from 9% in 2008)--the white vote may not be enough to put Romney over the top nationally. Stay tuned.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 5:59 PM by Maurice Berger
Nationally voters believe that Mitt Romney would do a better job of handling the economy (51% to 47%), but on issues of empathy and the question of who shares their values most, voters give the nod to Obama. Which point of view will win out in the end?
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 3:05 PM by Maurice Berger
Last night, PollTrack posted its FINAL Today's Map and Tomorrow's Map. The final tall: 303-Obama/235-Romney. The last state called: Florida, which according to our poll averaging is very, very close.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger
Much has been made by commentators about Mitt Romney's lead with independent voters in a number of the latest tracking polls. A note of caution: this year, and very much due to the rise of the Tea Party, many voters who self-describe as "independent" are, in fact, Tea Party conservatives (many of whom are supporting Romney). When surveys consider the sentiment of another key demographic group--one heretofore associated with independent voters, but not necessarily in this cycle--"moderates," i.e., voters in the middle of the political spectrum, many disillusioned by two-part polarization--Obama leads, by as much as +20%. Will this cycle dynamically redefine the term "independent"? PollTrack will have more on this issue after Election 2012.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:05 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's final national polling average for the 2012 presidential race shows President Obama with a lead of +1.4%, a marked improvement from his poll average of just seven days ago. Indeed, in the last week, the vast majority of national surveys reported a slight but clear momentum for the president, particularly in the days following Hurricane Sandy. In our final average, Obama is at 48.9% and his GOP challenger Mitt Romney is at 47.5%.
Stay tuned for PollTrack Political Director, Maurice Berger's Live Blogging (on the Presidential Maps page, for the presidential race; on Writing on the Wall for US Senate races) starting today at 5:00 PM EST.
Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 10:34 PM by Maurice Berger
Due to one late tracking poll (by International Business Daily-TIPP), PollTrack's final national polling average will be issued tomorrow morning. The US Senate Race Chart and the Presidential Maps will be finalized by midnight tonight EST.
Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 5:37 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 5:30 PM EST this evening continues to show a close race, but with the president leading by more than a percentage point. Obama now stands at 48.8% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a lead for Obama of +1.3%.
Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 3:44 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 3:30 PM EST this afternoon shows the president just grazing the 49.0% mark, a number that would tend to confirm his structural lead in the swing states. Obama now stands at 48.9% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a lead for Obama of +1.4%.
Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 1:27 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 1:30 PM EST this afternoon shows a +0.2% increase for the president from this morning. Obama now stands at 48.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.2%--for a lead for Obama of +1.4%.
Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 9:34 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 9:30 AM EST this morning shows the race tightening slightly. Obama now stands at 48.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a lead for Obama of +1.2%.
Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 6:35 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 6:30 PM EST this evening continues to show momentum for President Obama. Indeed, in the freshest round of polls--those released over the past day or so--Obama leads in most, is tied in a few. Romney no longer leads in any national poll released over the past 36-hours. Just as significant, the president is at 49% or 50% in many of these polls--UPI, Rand, PPP, Pew, ABC/Washington Post, YouGov, JZ-Analytics/Washington Times--a threshold that suggest a durable national lead. Obama now stands at 48.4% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.8%.
Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 10:16 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EST this morning continues to show modest momentum for President Obama. Obama now stands at 48.0% and Mitt Romney at 46.5%--for a lead for Obama of +1.5%.
Posted Nov 03, 2012 at 5:15 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack has moved Virginia on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic, for an Obama Electoral College lead of 303 EVS to Romney's 206. Florida remains undecided on Today's Map at 29 EVs.
Posted Nov 03, 2012 at 5:14 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 6:00 PM EDT this evening continues to show modest momentum for President Obama, who leads by more than one-percent. Obama now stands at 47.9% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.3%.
Posted Nov 03, 2012 at 8:55 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 9:30 AM EDT this morning continues to show slight momentum for President Obama, who leads by more than one-percent. Obama now stands at 47.8% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.2%.
Posted Nov 02, 2012 at 4:15 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 5:00 PM EDT this afternoon shows a stable race, with President Obama holding on to his lead, now just above one-percent. Obama now stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.1%.
Posted Nov 02, 2012 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EDT this morning shows a stable race, with President Obama up by more than one-percent, suggesting slight momentum for him. Obama now stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.1%.
Posted Nov 01, 2012 at 4:35 PM by Maurice Berger
This afternoon's PollTrack national Polling Average as of this evening at 5:30 PM EDT suggests a bit of forward momentum for President Obama. Even including the large lead for Romney in the now suspended Gallup Poll--we continue to factor in tracking polls issued over the past ten days--Obama now has a full +1.0% lead over his GOP challenger Mitt Romney--47.7% to 46.7%. Stay tuned to see if this is a durable lead or just a day of good polling for the president.
Posted Nov 01, 2012 at 9:14 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EDT this morning shows a stable race. Once again, a word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy, thus making it more difficult to access the current state of the race. President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.2%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.
Posted Oct 31, 2012 at 3:21 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 4:00 PM EDT this afternoon shows the race little changed. Once again, a word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy, thus making it more difficult to access the current state of the race. President Obama now stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.
Posted Oct 31, 2012 at 9:23 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EDT this morning continues to show a very close race. A continued word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy. Thus, we may need to wait a few days for a more accurate picture of the current state of the race. President Obama now stands at 47.8% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for an Obama lead of +0.4%.
Posted Oct 31, 2012 at 8:50 AM by Maurice Berger
With half of this weeks polls in Florida showing President Obama slightly head--and the PollTrack average now a virtual tie--the state moves on Today's Map from Leaning Republican to To-Close-To-Call. PollTrack notes that Mitt Romney's electoral math just got a lot harder. A close race in states like North Carolina and Virginia, and with Obama holding firm in Ohio, it appears that in the Electoral College, at least, the president's path to victory has grown modestly, but clearly, stronger. Stay tuned.
Posted Oct 30, 2012 at 1:59 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 3:00 PM EDT this afternoon suggests that the race remains very close. A continued word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy. Thus, we may need to wait a few days for a more accurate picture of the current state of the race. President Obama now stands at 47.9% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.
Posted Oct 30, 2012 at 10:01 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 11:00 AM EDT this morning suggests that the race remains very close. A word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy. Thus, we may need to wait a few days for additional polling. President Obama now stands at 48.0% and Mitt Romney at 47.6%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.
Posted Oct 29, 2012 at 4:03 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 5:00 PM EDT this afternoon suggests a race that remains very close. President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.2%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.
Posted Oct 29, 2012 at 8:56 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 9:30 AM EDT this morning continues to suggest a slight improvement for the president as well as a modest degree of momentum. President Obama now stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 46.9%--for a lead for Obama of +0.8%.
In the all-important race for Electoral Votes, the president maintains an advantage. Right now, PollTrack's aggregate poll numbers on Today's Map suggests a lead for Obama of 290 to Romney's 235. Virginia remains Too-Close-To-Call at 13 EVs.
Posted Oct 28, 2012 at 3:03 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 4:00 PM EDT today suggests a slight improvement in the president's standing and a degree of momentum, as well. It is unclear whether this is the result of statistical noise--several polls indicated improved standing for Obama--or a durable momentum as we move towards Election Day. President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 46.9%--for a lead for Obama of +0.7%.
Posted Oct 28, 2012 at 9:09 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EDT today remain unchanged from yesterday afternoon. President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.
Posted Oct 27, 2012 at 3:27 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 3:00 PM today EDT continues to report a virtual tie. President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.
Posted Oct 27, 2012 at 12:43 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of noon today EDT continues to report a virtual tie. President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.1%.
Posted Oct 26, 2012 at 5:15 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.3%.
Posted Oct 26, 2012 at 4:17 PM by Maurice Berger
With a number of polls out over the past few days in Colorado, PollTrack moves the state from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic. Obama now leads in 290 Electoral Votes, Romney in 235, and 13 EVs (Virginia) remain Too-Close-To-Call (VA moved back from Leaning Democratic to TCTC late last night based on two days of polling suggesting that the race is virtually tied in the state).
Posted Oct 26, 2012 at 9:55 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's morning aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race remains unchanged from lat night's report. The aggregate continues to report a virtual tie. As of 9:00 AM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.1%.
Posted Oct 25, 2012 at 6:01 PM by Maurice Berger
There is virtually no change this evening from PollTrack's morning aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race. The aggregate continues to report a virtual tie. As of 6:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.1%.
Posted Oct 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's morning aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 10:00 AM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.
Posted Oct 24, 2012 at 5:01 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.
Today's Map reports an improved standing for President Obama in the race for Electoral Votes. With PollTrack's moving of Virginia from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic on Today's Map, Obama's count inched up to 294 EVs. Romney is holding steady at 235. Colorado remains the one state that is Too-Close-To-Call.
Posted Oct 24, 2012 at 1:36 PM by Maurice Berger
Based on analysis of recent voting patterns in the state and two new polls that report that President Obama is now leading in Virginia--Obama 50%, Romney 43%, according to Old Dominion University; Obama 49%, Romney 46% in a new (Newsmax/Zogby survey--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic.
Posted Oct 24, 2012 at 1:17 PM by Maurice Berger
Check back with PollTrack later today for the second wave of national presidential race aggregate of polls.
Posted Oct 24, 2012 at 10:16 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's morning aggregate of national polls in the presidential race remains unchanged. As of 10:00 AM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--a perfect tie.
Posted Oct 23, 2012 at 5:19 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's second wave aggregate of today's national polls in the presidential race continues to report an extremely close race. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a perfect tie. PollTrack continues to believe that the fundamentals of the race favor the president, who now stands at 281 electoral votes to Romney's 235 EVs on Today's Map. 22 EVs remain too-close-to-call.
Posted Oct 23, 2012 at 2:05 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack will post its second wave of daily tracking of the national presidential polls later today. Check back late this afternoon, EDT for today's second wave results.
Posted Oct 23, 2012 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 9:00 AM this morning, President Obama now stands at 47.3% and Mitt Romney at 47.1%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%. Return early evening for our national average with today's tracking polls included.
Posted Oct 22, 2012 at 5:35 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a virtual tie. Today was a busy day for polls, so the new average is based on a broad array of data. President Obama now stands at 47.2% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Romney of +0.1%. While momentum has shifted to Romney over the past twenty-four hours (he has made up a +0.9% deficit), the race has grown even cloudier, locked as it is in a virtual deadlock.
While the fundamentals of the electoral college still favor the president (he leads in states totaling more than 270 EVs), Romney's ascendance over the past three weeks has been rapid, definitive, and--according to the latest polls--durable (not to mention unprecedented). Will tonight's debate make a difference, affording one candidate or the other forward momentum? Will last minute events--and the candidate's response to them--break the tie? Or will Election Day be a squeaker? For both our Republican and Democratic readers, PollTrack is as nervous as you are!
Posted Oct 21, 2012 at 6:23 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a (very slightly) increased lead for President Obama. As of 6:00 PM this afternoon, Obama is at 47.4% and Mitt Romney is at 46.5%--for an aggregate lead for the president of +0.9%.
Posted Oct 20, 2012 at 5:13 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a (very slightly) increased lead for President Obama. As of 5:00 PM this afternoon, Obama is at 47.6% and Mitt Romney is at 46.5%--for an aggregate lead for the president of +1.1%. As important, across the swing state polls, the president appears to continue to be reversing some, but not all of Romney's gains over the past three weeks, and continues to lead by varying margins in all but three of the swing states, Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado, where Romney leads.
Posted Oct 20, 2012 at 1:31 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack is awaiting today's tracking polls. Check back in late afternoon for an up-to-the-minute accounting of where the national numbers stand.
Posted Oct 19, 2012 at 4:11 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a lead for President Obama. As of 4:00 PM this afternoon, Obama is at 47.4% and Mitt Romney is at 46.5%--for an aggregate lead for the president of +0.9%. More important, across the polls, the president appears to have a slight momentum heading into Monday's debate as he overtakes or ties Romney's lead in all of the surveys (with the exception of Gallup).
Posted Oct 19, 2012 at 1:18 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack is awaiting a slew of national tracking polls. Check back in late afternoon for an up-to-the-minute accounting of where the national numbers stand.
Posted Oct 18, 2012 at 7:22 PM by Maurice Berger
The PollTrack average as as 7:00 PM is Mitt Romney 47.9% and President Obama 47.3% for an aggregate national lead of +0.6% for Romney.
Posted Oct 18, 2012 at 7:38 AM by Maurice Berger
The PollTrack average as as 7:00 am this morning is Obama 47.8% and Mitt Romney 46.6% for an aggregate national lead of +1.2% for the president.
Posted Oct 17, 2012 at 5:03 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's average of national polls as of 5:00 PM EDT continues to show President Obama with a very slight lead over his GOP challenger Mitt Romney. The aggregate numbers are 47.8% for Obama, 47.2% for Romney, giving the president an overall lead of +0.6%--numbers pointing to a race that is virtually tied nationally.
Posted Oct 17, 2012 at 9:53 AM by Maurice Berger
Here is the verdict of three snap polls on last night's debate: these so-called instant polls all report that President Obama--to one extent or another--won last night's debate: CBS News had Obama besting Romney 37% to 30%, at CNN Obama came out ahead at 46% to 39%, and a Lake Research poll in the battleground states found Obama up 53% to 38%. Keep in mind that voter perceptions of debates often shift as succeeding news cycles parse the outcome. In the first presidential debate and vice-presidential debate, initial results reported a closer result, while subsequent polling in the days following reported far bigger leads for both Mitt Romney and Joe Biden. Will Obama's edge expand or decline? Stay tuned.
Posted Oct 16, 2012 at 9:37 AM by Maurice Berger
Who will do better in tonight's debate? That's the question asked by a new Pew Research poll. 41% of voters surveyed say President Obama will do better, while 37% expect Mitt Romney to prevail. Two weeks ago, voters expected Obama to win by a 51% to 29% margin--an expectations game that further hurt him in the wake of a poor debate performance. Who will these lower expectations help or hurt? Stay tuned.
Posted Oct 15, 2012 at 7:04 PM by Maurice Berger
After a week of consistent leads in PollTrack's aggregate poll numbers (by up to +2%), Mitt Romney has as of this evening dropped behind President Obama. The race nationally now stands at Obama 48.1% and Romney 47.0. PollTrack believes that with the race now virtually tied, momentum coming out of tomorrow's debate could be crucial. Still, with improved national and swing state polling, the president goes into tomorrow's debate as the (very slight) favorite according to PollTrack's electoral analysis.
One note of caution for both sides: it is very unusual to see the lead flip back and forth this late in a presidential cycle, indicating a very soft core of still "persuadable" voters and the potential for events on the ground to influence them. With each side firmly in control of its base, the potential for a close race or a race decided by events (or gaffes) beyond the control of the campaigns remains a reality. While the fundamentals of the race--both nationally and electorally--have and continue to favor president Obama, the potential for a late-in-the-game surprise could afford Romney a boost or push the president further forward.
Posted Oct 15, 2012 at 9:30 AM by Maurice Berger
After ten days in which Mitt Romney's support among likely voters has steadily risen and President Obama's have steadily declined, PollTrack's averaging of all national survey's polling voter sentiment over the past seven days reports a tightening of the race. Our aggregate of all polls has the race exactly tied, with both Romney and Obama at 47.2% each. This is good news for the president, indicating that the support he lost may be starting to return while's Romney may be declining.
A few more days of polling should be more definitive. Tuesday night's debate could significantly alter the dynamic of the race, either improving Romney's standing and giving him renewed momentum (which may have been damped by last week's vice-presidential debate) or helping President Obama to recoup a lead lost in the ten days following the first presidential debate. We are at a key point in the race, so check back this week for polling updates.
Posted Oct 11, 2012 at 10:09 AM by Maurice Berger
With a new crop of polls in Ohio suggesting that President Obama is the slight favorite there--and polls in traditional Democratic states like Wisconsin and New Hampshire reporting a much closer race, but with a Democratic advantage--PollTrack believes that the fundamentals of the presidential race still point to an Obama victory. But with other swings states drawing very close, e.g. Colorado, Virginia, and Florida, where some polls now show Mitt Romney in the lead, PollTrack also believes that the race has grown, much close, volatile, and less predictable. In other words, the final month of Election 2012 begins with uncertainty rather than clarity.
The forthcoming debates--and the possibility of events in forthcoming news cycles helping or hurting either candidate--will determine whether the race will be won by Obama or Romney by a comfortable margin or a razor thin one. Still, the president continues to maintain a larger base of electoral votes than Romney. On the other hand, a wave of support towards the GOP candidate--with so many swing states now virtually tied--could tip the balance in his favor. Or, of course, the opposite might come to pass. Stay tuned, loyal readers. This is going to get interesting.
Posted Oct 10, 2012 at 8:39 AM by Maurice Berger
With polls consistently reporting that the race in Virginia and Florida are tightening considerably, PollTrack moves Virginia on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Too-Close-To-Call and Florida from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning GOP.
Posted Oct 09, 2012 at 8:02 AM by Maurice Berger
Based on national polling out today--a full 5-days after the first presidential debate--PollTrack is seeing a discernible tightening of the race. We are waiting for additional polling in the swing states (due over the next few days) to better understand whether the tightening of the race is statistical noise (or simple fall out of the first debate) or a genuine drop in the president's support and/or an increase in Mitt Romney's support. PollTrack suspects at this point that the tightening may be real, and possibly durable. As such, tightening of swing state polls has resulted in substantive race ratings in Colorado, Iowa, Florida and Virginia, now rated as Too-Close-To-Call on Today's Map--a dynamic swing from a week ago when all were rated Leaning Democratic.
Posted Oct 05, 2012 at 9:08 AM by Maurice Berger
While Mitt Romney's debate performance received positive reviews in the media--and the president's quite negative--it may be difficult to discern the long-term implications of the candidates' first dust up. For one, more potential voters watched this debate than the first one in 2008 (58 million in 2012 as opposed to 52.4 million four years earlier." Yet, while PollTrack expects at least a modest improvement in Romney's standing over the next few days, it doubts that the president's overall support will decline substantially.
Historically, however, incumbent president's tend not to do well in their first debate (and most go on to win reelection). Equally significant, few debates have actually altered the overall dynamic of the election cycle: the candidate who is ahead coming into the first debate usually wins (only Al Gore did not, though he did, in fact, win the popular vote). But there are always exceptions. So stay tuned.
Posted Oct 04, 2012 at 9:17 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll has bad news for the Romney campaign: the survey, by NBC News/WSJ/Telemundo, reports that President Obama now leads Romney among Hispanic voters by a whopping +50% margin--70% to 20%. The survey's background analysis continues: "It appears that Romney's comments that 47% of Americans are dependent on government took a toll on his standing with Hispanics. Romney's favorability score has cratered with the group, with his negatives hitting an all-time high. Fifty-three percent now say they have a negative impression of Romney and just 23% say they have a positive one. That 30-point difference is 17 points worse than in August."
Traditionally, it has been extremely difficult in recent years for GOP candidates for president to win without picking off a sizable amount of the Hispanic vote, in the 35% to 45% range. Not only does Romney poor standing hurt him in the national popular vote, it also makes it very difficult to win purple states with large Hispanic populations, most notably Colorado, Nevada, Florida, and Virginia. Stay tuned.
Posted Oct 03, 2012 at 8:59 AM by Maurice Berger
Several polls in Virginia report that President Obama continues to lead his GOP challenger Mitt Romney, but by varying margins. One poll, by Roanoke College, for example, reports a significant Democratic advantage, Obama 47%, Romney 39. Another, by ARG, reports only a modest lead of +2%, 49% to 47% (though it has Obama near the 50% mark). PollTrack continues to rate the state on Today's Map Leaning Democratic.
Posted Oct 02, 2012 at 9:41 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new survey sponsored by the YWCA, President Obama now holds a huge, +18% lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney among women, 49% to 31%. Similarly, a Quinnipiac poll released this morning reports that the president holds a huge +18% lead among women, 56% to 38%. (The poll reports that Romney holds a much smaller lead among men, 53% to 42%.). If
this lead holds, it may well be impossible, from a demographic standpoint, for Romney to cobble together enough votes from men and other groups hospitable to the Republican Party to prevail in this November's election.
Posted Oct 01, 2012 at 9:46 AM by Maurice Berger
Another poll--this one from the well-regarded and traditionally very accurate Des Moines Register, which shows the president up by +4%, Obama 49%, Romney 45%--supports PollTrack's decision to move Iowa on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic.
Posted Sep 28, 2012 at 9:23 AM by Maurice Berger
A smattering of polls released yesterday for the national presidential race report that President Obama is leading by an average of 4% percentage points: Fox News, for example, has Obama up by +5% (48% to Mitt Romney's 43%); Gallup reports a 6% lead (50% to 44%), and Reuters/Ipsos, a +7% lead (49% to 42%). The GOP-leaning Rasmussen Survey reports the race toed at 46%.
Posted Sep 27, 2012 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger
With a new poll by Public Policy Polling in Iowa showing a modest lead for the President over his GOP challenger, but also over the 50%-mark --it's now Obama 51%, Romney 44% according to the poll,--PollTrack has decided to move the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call, where it has been from the beginning of this election cycle, to Leaning Democratic. Since the PPP survey tends to trend slightly Democratic, PollTrack will keep a close eye on fresh polling in the state.
Posted Sep 26, 2012 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger
With the results of three recent polls reporting that the president is both leading and at, near or above the 50% mark in Florida, PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic.
Posted Sep 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM by Maurice Berger
With three new polls showing a small but consistent lead by President Obama over Mitt Romney, PollTrack moves North Carolina on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic. This move is significant, indicating a broader shift in recent days away from Romney and towards the president. As swing states that continue to trend modestly Republican--like North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia--now indicate a slight preference for Obama, classic purple states, like Ohio and Colorado, are increasingly showing strength for Obama.
Indeed, PollTrack has tracked another consistent trend: in many recent polls in battleground states such as Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, the president has inched up to (or in a number of cases over) the all-important 50% mark. With the probability fading that the president's convention bounce was merely transient--and the real possibility that these numbers might remain stable for the time being--PollTrack senses that the election may have reached a tipping point.From the perspective of history, such trends are very difficult for challengers to reverse this close to the election. Stay tuned.
Posted Sep 24, 2012 at 9:08 AM by Maurice Berger
Due to the very close and contradictory polling in Florida--Romney is up by+1% in one poll, Obama in another--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Too-Close-To-Call. A new poll by Public Policy Polling in Florida reports that President Obama leads Romney by four points, 50% to 46%. Given the slight Democratic title of that poll, PollTrack will await the next round of polling in the state to determine if it has moved sufficiently in one direction or another to call the state.
Posted Sep 21, 2012 at 8:20 AM by Maurice Berger
Within the pat few days, the following polls in the presidential race have been released for the state of Virginia:
With the president leading by as much as seven points--and hovering at or near the all-important 50% mark, the state appears to favor Obama. PollTrack continues to rate Virgina on Today's Map Leaning Democratic.
Posted Sep 20, 2012 at 1:00 AM by Maurice Berger
Two just released polls in Wisconsin--Quinnipiac/CBS News/NYT which shows the race at Obama 51%, Romney 45% and Marquette Law School, with Obama 54%, Romney at 40%--suggest that recent reports that the state is in play may have been exaggerated. Based on recent polling data, demographics, and historical models, PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic. On Tomorrow's Map, the state moves from Leaning Democratic to Democratic.
Posted Sep 19, 2012 at 9:04 AM by Maurice Berger
With unemployment relatively high in the state--and the demographics fairly evenly divided between the two parties--the state of Colorado continues to look like a toss up to PollTrack. A new poll by the Denver post concludes: "after months of campaigning, multiple visits and millions spent on advertising, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are dead even in Colorado, according to a new Denver Post poll. The poll results . . . show Obama ahead of Romney by a single, statistically insignificant percentage point, 47% to 46%. When former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, who is running as the Libertarian nominee for president, is factored in, Obama's single-percentage-point lead remains, 45% to 44%. Johnson registers at 3% of the vote." PollTrack believes that the trend line for the state continues to favor the president (especially factoring in Johnson, who may pull more votes away from the GOP than the Democrats). Nevertheless, the state remains Too-Close-To-Call on Today's Map.
Posted Sep 18, 2012 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger
A poll by Washington Post-ABC News reports that by a margin of 49% to 42%, voters believe the Obama campaign is "saying things it believes to be true" rather than "intentionally misleading people." The poll suggests a serious problem for the GOP challenger, with Mitt Romney's numbers nearly reversed: 43% say that his campaign is telling the truth, while 48% say not. PollTrack believes that this perception is one factor that might make it very difficult--if not impossible-- for Romney to overcome Obama's advantage coming out of the two conventions.
Posted Sep 17, 2012 at 9:01 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Philadelphia Inquirer poll in Pennsylvania reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney by +11% among likely voters, 50% to 39%. PollTrack now sees the state as out of reach for the GOP. It moves PA on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Democratic.
Posted Sep 14, 2012 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger
Three new polls from Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist report that President Obama's lead over Mitt Romney in Ohio, Florida and Virginia has increased among likely voters. That the president is near or at the 50% mark in all three states suggests a problem for his GOP challenger.
Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 44%
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 43%
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 44%
Posted Sep 13, 2012 at 9:58 AM by Maurice Berger
A new surveyby EPIC-MRA in Michigan reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney by 10 points, 47% to 37%. Based on polling and historical models PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Strong Democratic.
Posted Sep 12, 2012 at 9:58 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Gravis Marketing in Virgina reports that Mitt Romney now leads President Obama by +5%--49% to 44%. As a result of this and other polling and historical models, PollTrack moves the state from Leaning Democratic to Too-Close-To-Call on Today's Map.
Posted Sep 11, 2012 at 9:40 AM by Maurice Berger
One reason why the Democratic convention may have helped President Obama's case with American voters: they have high marks for its speakers. In a pre-convention poll, a USA Today/Gallup poll reported that "three of the four principal Democrats the party is showcasing this week in prime-time Democratic convention speeches in Charlotte, N.C., are generally in good favor with the majority of Americans. According to [the poll] conducted prior to both parties' conventions, former President Bill Clinton, first lady Michelle Obama, and President Barack Obama all have broad appeal, while Vice President Joe Biden receives mixed reviews." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Sep 07, 2012 at 3:48 PM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack is seeing the beginning of what may be a discernible post-convention "bounce" for the Democrats. With Romney's bounce receding in the GOP-tilted Rasmussen tracking poll (the challenger's 4% lead is now down to 1%) and Gallup tracking (already having shown no bounce for Romney) now reporting that President Obama is up by +3%, it appears there is already an uptick in support for the Democratic ticket. Even more dramatic is Obama's approval number in Gallup: he has gone from a net negative earlier in the week to a net positive of +9--with his approval rating now at 52%. What is most significant is that these numbers do not reflect the full brunt of the Democratic convention, which only ended yesterday. With a seven-day rolling average, the convention only partially registers in Gallup's numbers. Even Rasmussen's three-day average is based on interviews conducted largely before the president's speech. Stay tuned.
Posted Sep 06, 2012 at 8:38 AM by Maurice Berger
One post-convention polling detail that should modestly boost the Romney campaign: On Saturday, the Reuters/Ipsos poll reported that Mitt Romney emerged out of the Tampa with a slight improvement in his image among voters. 31% of registered voters found Romney "likeable", up from 26% when the convention started. By contrast, President Obama's likeability rating, according to Ipsos, is 48%, suggesting a deeper problem for the GOP challenger.
Posted Sep 05, 2012 at 9:26 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Public Policy Polling suggest that Missouri continues to look like a tough sell for Barack Obama. The poll reports a strong +12% lead for Romney in the state, 53% to 41%.PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Leaning Republican to Safe Republican.
Posted Sep 04, 2012 at 11:06 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by EPIC-MRA in Michigan reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by a modest three points, 49% to 46%. PollTrack continues to rate the state Leaning Democrat on Today's Map.
Posted Sep 02, 2012 at 10:39 AM by Maurice Berger
With several polls showing little movement in the presidential race--the sole exception at this point, Rasmussen, has a slight, overall GOP-tilt, discernible both in this election relative to other polls and in 2008--it appears that Mitt Romney's convention bounce is very modest (or, according to Gallup and Reuter's-Ipsos, non-existent). One problem for Romney is suggested by numbers released by Variety on Sunday: a considerable drop from 2008 for TV viewers who watched the GOP standard bearer's acceptance speech. According to Variety, Nielsen data shows Romney's speech averaged 30.3 million viewers across nine networks, about 22% short of the nearly 39 million who tuned in for Sen. John McCain four years ago. These numbers suggest one of two possibilities: a specific decline in voter interest in the presidential race (or the GOP presidential race) or a general decline in viewer interest for convention coverage.
PollTrack will compare GOP convention viewership with that for the Democrats, but suspects that these numbers will also be lower. As for Gallup, their tracking poll as of Sunday afternoon reports a virtually tied race (with Obama leading by +1%), exactly where the race was before the start of the GOP convention. The Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll reports a similar lack of movement by the convention's end, with Obama regaining a +1% lead. A polling average of the three tracking polls (Gallup, Rasmussen, and Ipsos) relative to where the race was before the start of the GOP convention, suggests an overall bounce for Romney of +1.3%, one of the lowest post conventions bounces for a challenger in recent years.
Posted Aug 31, 2012 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger
While President Obama's lead in Nevada has narrowed since June--according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling Obama leads Romney by +3%, 50% to 47%--PollTrack continues to rate the state Leaning Democratic on Today's Map due to the president's all important reaching of the 50% mark.
Posted Aug 29, 2012 at 9:45 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Mason-Dixon poll in Missouri reports that Mitt Romney leads President Obama, 50% to 43%. While other polls have shown an even closer race, PollTrack continues to rate the state Leaning Republican on Today's Map.
Posted Aug 28, 2012 at 9:09 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by the Philadelphia Inquirer in Pennsylvania reports that President Obama now holds a significant +9% lead over Mitt Romney--51% to 42%. PollTrack moves the state on Tomorrow's Map from Leaning Democratic to Democratic.
Posted Aug 27, 2012 at 9:55 AM by Maurice Berger
Another poll just released, by the Tarrance Group, reports that President Obama is locked in a very close race nationally with Mitt Romney. The President leads by just one point in the poll, 47% to 46%, with 7% undecided.
Posted Aug 24, 2012 at 7:49 AM by Maurice Berger
While a new Associated Press/GfK poll reports that President Obama is only +1% ahead of Mitt Romney nationally--47% to 46%--it also shows a more significant gap when people were asked who they thought would win: 58% of adults said Obama to be re-elected, while just 32% said Romney.The expectation of a win is often important in a close election, dampening support for the candidate who is thought to have a lesser chance of winning. PollTrack will continue to track both the national numbers as well as voter expectations.
Posted Aug 23, 2012 at 9:54 AM by Maurice Berger
The one possible vice-presidential bounce for Mitt Romney may be evident in Rep. Paul Ryan's home state of Wisconsin. A new Marquette Law School poll reports that President Obama leads Mitt in Wisconsin by three points, 49% to 46%. An earlier poll by Marquette had the president up by +5%. Several other polls in the state over the past week report a similar improvement in Romney's numbers. PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from leaning Democratic to Too-Close-To-Call.
Posted Aug 21, 2012 at 9:59 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Mitchell Research in Michigan reports that President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney by five points, 49% to 44%. PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To Call to Leaning Democratic.
Posted Aug 20, 2012 at 8:57 AM by Maurice Berger
Despite the addition of Wisconsin US Rep. Paul Ryan to the GOP ticket, A new CNN/Opinion Research survey in Wisconsin shows President Obama still leading Mitt Romney, 49% to 45%. PollTrack rates the rate on Today's Map Leaning Democratic.
Posted Aug 17, 2012 at 8:59 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Franklin & Marshall College reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania by six points, 44% to 38%. These numbers actually show a gain of +6% for the GOP challenger; Obama led by 12 points in the poll in June.
Posted Aug 16, 2012 at 10:15 AM by Maurice Berger
In numbers that cannot be positive for the president's reelection effort, A new poll by CNN/Opinion Research reports that optimism about how things are going in the country now at 36% -- down from 7% in April; 63% say that things are going poorly.
Posted Aug 15, 2012 at 9:25 AM by Maurice Berger
In another sign that the Romney campaign may be in trouble, a new poll by SurveyUSA in Missouri (taken before Paul Ryan was aded to the GOP ticket) reports a virtually tied race, with Mitt Romney barely ahead of President Obama, 45% to 44%. While the state served as a nearly perfect bellwether of presidential cycles in the 20th-century, it has recently trended Republican. Indeed, by contrast, SurveyUSA reports that in the state's upcoming US Senate race between incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill and GOP challenger Todd Akin, the Republican leads by a significant +11%, 51% to 40%. Will the addition of Paul Ryan help Romney in the state of Missouri, as well as nationally? Stay tuned.
Posted Aug 14, 2012 at 9:10 AM by Maurice Berger
In yesterday's USA Today/Gallup poll on voter attitudes about Mitt Romney's pick of Paul Ryan, another interesting detail: "The poll also finds 17% of adults say they are more likely to vote for Romney in November because Ryan is his running mate -- about the same impact Sarah Palin had for John McCain four years ago among registered voters." If these numbers hold up, PollTrack believes that Romney's selection could be a significant drag on the ticket. Still, Ryan is relatively unknown to many sectors of the electorate, has his formidable campaign skills have not been tested. PollTrack will be monitoring closely polling on Ryan and his effect on the GOP ticket.
Posted Aug 13, 2012 at 11:01 AM by Maurice Berger
The first poll out of the gate to test the strength of Romney's choice of Paul Ryan as his running mate suggests that the pick may not boost the prospects of the GOP ticket. The poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that "more of the public gives [Ryan] lower marks than high ones. Ryan, a Wisconsin congressman, is seen as only a 'fair' or 'poor' choice by 42% of Americans vs. 39% who think he is an "excellent" or "pretty good" vice presidential choice. . . . USA TODAY/Gallup Polls of registered voters after the announcements of running mates since Dick Cheney in 2000 all showed more positive reactions. Only Dan Quayle in a 1988 Harris Poll of likely voters was viewed less positively than Ryan, with 52% rating Quayle as a "fair" or "poor" vice presidential choice. The Ryan poll includes all adults, not just registered voters." PollTrack cautions that snap polls often do not take into account the much longer process of voter assessment of candidates. Still, these numbers suggest a problem for the Romney campaign if they persist.
Posted Aug 13, 2012 at 9:36 AM by Maurice Berger
Some commentators have pointed out that the selection of Paul Ryan as Romney's VP candidate may help the GOP team win Wisconsin. While this may be true, the current polling in the state suggests that Ryan may indeed give Romney a modest boost in the state, but not enough to hand the state to the Republicans. Stay tuned to see if future polling suggests a change in this dynamic.
PollTrack has another observation, however: Romney can win election 2012 without Wisconsin (Bush won both the 2000 and 2004 cycles without the state). But is it almost inconceivable according to PollTrack's calculation, that Romney-Ryan can emerge victorious without Ohio (not Republican in modern times has won the presidency without it). With this in mind, would Rob Portman have been a better choice for the Romney campaign political figure who remains very popular in his home state?
Posted Aug 12, 2012 at 10:22 AM by Maurice Berger
Mitt Romney selection of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan--while an early and dramatic turn in election 2012--may not prove decisive to the outcome. (Few VP picks are.) But PollTrack's biggest caution: do not read too much into polls about the pick. While hardening public opinion can doom or boost a candidate--and the Obama campaign's attempt to define Romney has definitely resulted in a negative downturn in Romney's likeability numbers that may be very difficult to reverse at this point--the true contours of a presidential election often do not become clear until after both party's nominating conventions.
Right now, PollTrack sees the choice of Ryan as a possible net minus for the Romney campaign for one reason: senior voters.
Older voters represent a key and often enthusiastic demographic for the GOP. Yet a recent poll by AARP reports that in the race is tied in the over 50 demographic. This suggests a fundamental problem for Romney. Adding a candidate to the Republican ticket who openly (and unambiguously) calls for a radical restructuring of Medicare and who has referred to Social Security as a "ponzi scheme," and senior voters may have reason to rethink the GOP team. A sharp diminution of support among senior voters (especially voters over 65, who are often the most reliable voters), could spell trouble for Romney-Ryan in the fall. Will Ryan's considerable gifts as a campaigner offset this potential problem? Stay tuned.
Posted Aug 10, 2012 at 9:22 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by AARP of voters over 50 reports that President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied at 45% with the group. However, Obama gets just a 42% to 49% approval rating among them. PollTrack notes, however, that in elections past, especially presidential cycles, this voter demographic (especially voters over the age of 60) has tended to trend Republican. A tie in this group--perhaps the result of voter perceptions that Romney may not support Social Security and Medicare as strongly as the president--actually suggests that the GOP challenger is not doing as well as he should among older voters. Stay tuned.
Posted Aug 09, 2012 at 9:45 AM by Maurice Berger
How effective is the Obama campaign's effort to paint GOP challenger Mitt Romney as out of touch with middle-class concerns? According to one poll, at least, the answer may be that these efforts may be suppressing Romney's numbers: the survey by Reuters/Ipsos reports that President Obama has expanded his lead over Mitt Romney, 49% to 42%, this despite the asserting of nearly two-thirds of respondents that "the country is moving in the wrong direction." Reuters observes: "The results of the monthly poll - in which a majority of voters agreed that the economy is the most important problem facing the United States - suggest that the Obama campaign's efforts to paint Romney as being out of touch with the concerns of middle-class Americans could be preventing the Republican from gaining momentum in the race."
Posted Aug 08, 2012 at 10:11 AM by Maurice Berger
According to the latest Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS News polls in selected key battleground states, President Obama now holds leads (just below or above the 50% mark) in Wisconsin and Virginia, and Mitt Romney is ahead at at 50% in Colorado:
Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 45%
Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 45%
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 45%
Posted Aug 06, 2012 at 9:48 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup, at this point in Election 2012, only 13-states give the president a net approval rating over 50%. Gallup observes: " A majority of residents in 13 states and the District of Columbia approved of the job Barack Obama did as president during the first six months of 2012. His highest ratings by state were in Hawaii (63%) and Rhode Island (58%), in addition to the 83% approval from District of Columbia residents. In 16 states, his approval rating averaged below 40%, with residents of Utah, Wyoming, and Alaska least approving." Of course, these numbers are to a great extent mitigated by the fact the Obama's GOP challenger, Mitt Romney, scores far lower in approval and far higher in disapproval than the president. Additionally, while Romney likeability numbers remain extremely low (the lowest of any major party candidate in years), the president's numbers remain over 50% (and are even higher in many of the swing states). Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Aug 03, 2012 at 9:54 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Pew Research reports that President Obama has expanded his lead over Mitt Romney in the presidential race, 51% to 41%. Perhaps, more significantly, the president has passed the 50% mark. The challenge for Romney: as his opponent inches up towards this mark nationally, is voter sentiment actually hardening? As voters start paying attention to the election--and advertising blitzes help to shape perceptions and opinions about the candidates--will sentiment against Romney translate into voters' resolve not to support him in November? While voters have had five years to shape their opinion of the president--he tends to score relatively high in likeability, for example--they are only now beginning to focus their attention on a GOP candidate whose biography has been increasingly defined by his opponent. While the conventions later this month can help shift voter sentiment, post-convention bounces are often short-lived, with candidates soon returning to their pre-convention numbers. Can Romney use his convention to reverse these numbers and bolster support among undecided and unaffiliated voters? Stay tuned.
Posted Aug 02, 2012 at 9:23 AM by Maurice Berger
In another indication that recent news cycles--and heavy advertising by Democrats--has hurt Mitt Romney in key sewing states, a new survey by Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times polls reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Just as significantly, Obama breaks the all-important 50% mark in each state:
Florida: Obama 51%, Romney 45%
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 44%
Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, Romney 42%
Posted Aug 01, 2012 at 10:18 AM by Maurice Berger
Despite Mitt Romney attempts to build support among traditionally Democratic Jewish voters--and his trip this week to Israel--a survey by Gallup reports that 68% of Jewish Americans support President Obama for re-eelction, while 25% support Mitt Romney.Thus American Jews remain one of the President's most stalwart group of supporters.
Posted Jul 31, 2012 at 9:16 AM by Maurice Berger
With just about every presidential cycle reporting a narrowing race in Pennsylvania, only to have the state go blue (it has done so reliably for the past twenty years), the question remains: what do polls suggesting a close race in the state mean. The latest Susquehanna Polling & Research survey in Pennsylvania, for example, has President Obama leading Mitt Romney by just three points, 46% to 43%. PollTrack's answer at this point is that the state remains Leaning Democrat. Stay tuned.
Posted Jul 30, 2012 at 10:45 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by We Ask America suggests that President Obama holds a modest but comfortable lead over Mitt Romney in the key swing state of Ohio, 48% to 40%. One factor that may be helping the president in Ohio: the state's unemployment numbers have improved in recent months.
Posted Jul 26, 2012 at 10:19 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Gallup, reports that "Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are 'more enthusiastic about voting than usual' in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004." Will this enthusiasm gap hurt the President's reelection chances? The answer remains unclear at this point. Elections cycles see enthusiasm ebb and flow from one party to another, sometimes increasing as the election draws nears. A number of factors can in crease voter enthusiasm within a party, from the perception that the election is becoming very close to news events beyond the control of either party. Check back with PollTrack in September/October to see if Democratic interest increases in the election.
Posted Jul 25, 2012 at 9:32 AM by Maurice Berger
In another indication of just how close the presidential race may turn out to be--and at this point--a new NPR poll in 12 battleground states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- reports that President Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 46% each.
Posted Jul 24, 2012 at 8:37 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Survey USA in Florida reports that President Obama is leading Mitt Romney by +5%--and inching closer to the all-important 50% mark--in the key battleground state, 48% to 43%.
Posted Jul 23, 2012 at 9:23 AM by Maurice Berger
Please check out our maps, which have been updated this weekend. And see "How the Maps Work" below!
Posted Jul 20, 2012 at 12:34 AM by Maurice Berger
For new visitors or for old visitors who would like a refresher course, here is a guide to PollTrack's unique mapping system. Remember, both Today's Map and Tomorrow's Map will be changing continuously throughout Election 2012, so check back often.
First, an overview: our innovative presidential election maps offer a snapshot of where things stand and where they are headed in the state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Armed with public opinion polls, the history and demographics of each state, knowledge of the nation’s geographic and cultural diversity, and common sense and intuition, political director Maurice Berger offers continuous updates and a blog (below map) on the state of the presidential race. Today’s Map Today monitors its current status. Tomorrow’s Map Today charts its momentum in the coming days or weeks. And Election Day Today records the actual outcome of the 2012 presidential race.
Here's a guide to each map:
Today's Map Today: This map
monitors the current status of the race. It gauges the relative strength
of each candidate within each state as it presently stands. Each state is
marked with its abbreviation and number of electoral votes. Click on a state for commentary in the ongoing PollTrack blog.
States are called on an ongoing basis: Blue and Red for “Safe” Democrat or Republican respectively, Light Blue or Light Red for states currently “leaning” toward one party or another. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including poll averages, trends in most recent polling that contradict or call into question the accuracy of these averages, and on the ground reports and information. For diehard red or blue states (like Idaho or DC), little polling may be available, so the state will be called on the basis of on the ground reports and/or its stable voting history.
Tomorrow's Map Today: This map charts the momentum of the race. It tracks the hunt for electoral votes in each state as it might play out in the coming days or even weeks. States are called on an ongoing basis: Blue and Red for trends that suggest “Safe” Democrat or Republican respectively, Light Blue or Light Red for trends that suggest a state is “leaning” toward one party or another. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including movement in the most recent polling, a state’s demographics and voting history, on the ground reports and information, and news about a candidate's state-wide political activities.
Election Day Map Today: This map forecasts the outcome of the 2012 presidential race. Win Democrat or Win Republican respectively. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including long term and recent trends in state-wide polling, a state’s demographics and voting history in relationship to these trends, on the ground reports and information, and news about a candidate's state-wide political activities. States are called on an ongoing basis, with Blue (Democrat) and Red (Republican) indicating PollTrack’s long-term prediction for a state. NOTE: calls are made only when voter opinion begins to solidify in each state, thus this map will fill-in slowly over the next two and half months.
Posted Jul 19, 2012 at 9:34 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted Jul 17, 2012 at 9:45 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Purple Strategies poll conducted across four battleground states -- Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Virginia -- finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney by modest +2%, 47% to 45%. An earlier poll in June rracked an identical +2% lead.
Posted Jul 16, 2012 at 12:24 PM by Maurice Berger
A while the GOP attempts to make Pennsylvania competitive this year, a We Ask America poll in the state reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by seven points, 47% to 40%.
Posted Jul 13, 2012 at 9:32 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a survey by We Ask America poll in New Mexico, President Obama holds a healty double-digit lead in the state, 51% to 40%. PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Safe Democratic.
Posted Jul 12, 2012 at 10:38 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new poll by Public Policy Polling in Wisconsin finds President Obama now holds a modest +6% lead over Mitt Romney by six points, 50% to 44%. More important for the president: he is at the 50% mark, suggesting that the state may be difficult for the GOP this year (as it has been in the past seven presidential elections).
Posted Jul 11, 2012 at 9:52 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a recent survey by Gallup, "U.S. registered voters show limited support for third-party candidates this year, with the vast majority preferring Barack Obama or Mitt Romney." The survey poll "asked a special presidential preference question, listing three third-party candidates in addition to Obama and Romney. Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson is the choice of 3% of registered voters and Green Party candidate Jill Stein the choice of 1%. Another 2% volunteer Ron Paul's name and 1% mention someone other than the listed candidates." In most instances, Gallup reports, this support was at the expense of Romney's candidacy.
Posted Jul 10, 2012 at 9:50 AM by Maurice Berger
For a snapshot of the demographics of President Obama's approval rating, here is an informative breakdown of the numbers by Gallup (for the week of 25 June through 1 July):
Posted Jul 09, 2012 at 9:24 AM by Maurice Berger
Americans are sharply divided over last month's landmark Supreme Court decision on the 2010 healthcare law, according to a survey by Gallup, "with 46% agreeing and 46% disagreeing with the high court's ruling that the law is constitutional. Democrats widely hail the ruling, most Republicans pan it, and independents are closely divided." Here is Gallup's breakdown by party affiliation:
Posted Jul 06, 2012 at 9:46 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted Jul 05, 2012 at 9:56 AM by Maurice Berger
While a demographic survey by USA Today/Gallup poll reports that 51% of Hispanics in the United States are self-described independents, while 32% are Democrats and 11% are Republicans, the partisan leanings of these voters tell another story: 52% affiliate with the Democratic Party while only 23% lean towards the GOP, another sign of the increasingly Romney's increasingly uphill battle to win over voters crucial to the outcome of the fall election.
Posted Jul 02, 2012 at 12:16 PM by Maurice Berger
Will the Latino vote provide President Obama with the kind of cushion he needs to assure his reelection. A new Latino Decisions poll suggests that the answer may be yes. Obama is now significantly ahead of Mitt Romney among Latino voters in the key swing states of Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia. The survey reports that "In Florida, Obama is leading Romney by a margin of 53% to 37%, a slight increase from a 50% to 40% lead Obama held over Romney in a January 2012 Latino Decisions/Univision News poll in Florida. In the five states combined Obama lead Romney 63% to 27%, however in southwestern battlegrounds of Arizona, Colorado and Nevada Obama performed even better. In Arizona Obama received 74% to 18% for Romney, in Colorado he was favored by 70% to 22% and in Nevada 69% to 20%. In Virginia, Obama lead 59% to 28% over Romney among Latino registered voters." These numbers suggest that the even ordinarily red state of Arizona could be in play this year.
Posted Jun 29, 2012 at 2:48 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Marquette Law School in Wisconsin reports that President Obama is leading Mitt Romney by +6%, 49% to 43%.
Posted Jun 28, 2012 at 2:19 AM by Maurice Berger
Based on the latest polling in Colorado, PollTack moves the state from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic on Today's Map.
Posted Jun 27, 2012 at 11:06 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by We Ask America reports a very close race in the presidential race in Iowa (with many voters still undecided). In the poll, President Obama leads Mitt Romney by +1%--45% to 44%.
Posted Jun 26, 2012 at 11:01 AM by Maurice Berger
A poll by Associated Press/GfK reports that President Obama holds a modest lead over Mitt Romney in the presidential race, 47% to 44%.
Posted Jun 25, 2012 at 2:23 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Bloomberg reports that a plurality of Americans-- 43%--believe that President Obama's health care law should be retained "with only small modifications"; 15% say the measure should be left alone; and 33% say it should be repealed.
Posted Jun 25, 2012 at 2:21 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Quinnipiac reports that President Obama has retaken the lead in Florida from Mitt Romney. He now leads his GOP rival, 46% to 42%. PollTrack moves Florida on Today's Map from Leaning Republican to Too-Close-To-Call.
Posted Jun 22, 2012 at 9:13 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack has been tracking a modest uptick in national polling for President Obama. With a Meanwhile, a new Public Policy Polling survey reporting that Obama is hovering close to the all-important 50% mark. He now leads Mitt Romney, 49% to 45%
Posted Jun 21, 2012 at 9:04 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Bloomberg reports that 64% of Americans support President Obama's decision to end the
deportations of some illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as
children; 30% do not support the decision.
Posted Jun 20, 2012 at 9:21 AM by Maurice Berger
A poll by Rasmussen in Wisconsin reports that Mitt Romney leads President Obama, 47% to 44%. All other recent polls in the state continue to report leads for President Obama in the traditionally blue state, ranging from slight to comfortable.
Posted Jun 18, 2012 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Public Policy Polling in Nevada reports that President Obama holds a +6% lead over Mitt Romney, 48% to 42%. PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic.
Posted Jun 15, 2012 at 9:14 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey in New Jersey just released by Rutgers-Eagleton reports that President Obama maintains a commanding +23% lead over Mitt Romney, 56% to 33%.
Posted Jun 14, 2012 at 8:50 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted Jun 13, 2012 at 9:54 AM by Maurice Berger
Did the Obama administration's bailout of the auto industry make Michigan safe for the Democrats? The answer, according to a new poll, may be no. A survey by EPIC-MRA in Michigan now shows Mitt Romney with a tiny lead over President Obama, 46% to 45%. The pollster notes that "the softening in support for Obama is likely related to a robust TV advertising campaign by pro-Romney PACs which have been critical of his handling of the economy. Perhaps most troubling for the Democratic president is a decline in support from independent voters."
Posted Jun 12, 2012 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack moves Michigan on Today's Map Today from Leaning Democrat to Too-Close-To-Call. With this shift, the national race for president continues to grow closer.
Posted Jun 11, 2012 at 8:53 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by the Kaiser Foundation reports that a clear majority of Americans believe that President Obama "would be better for women" than Mitt Romney on a host of issues. The poll reports that overall, on the question of "who looks out for the best interests of women, Obama leads 52-26%. Among women voters, it's 59-25%."
Posted Jun 08, 2012 at 8:59 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack has just upgraded Today's Map Today: with Ohio moving from Leaning Democrat to Too-Close-to-Call and Florida from Leaning GOP to Too-Close-Too-Call, two more key states have swung into the toss up category.
Posted Jun 07, 2012 at 7:56 AM by Maurice Berger
A poll by FM3 in New Mexico reports that President Obama now Mitt Romney by a huge 13% margin, 48% to 35%, with Libertarian candidate and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson at 12%. Significantly, in the tree man race, the President hovers near the all important 50% mark.
Posted Jun 06, 2012 at 9:42 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by CNN/Opinion Research reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney nationally by +3% among registered voters, 49% to 46%.
Posted Jun 05, 2012 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted May 30, 2012 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by the Civitas Institute in North Carolina reports that Mitt Romney is slightly ahead of President Obama in the battleground state, 47% to 45%.
Posted May 29, 2012 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger
New calls by PollTrack on Today's Map suggest that the presidential race is growing closer. Our new tally (with leaners and safe states factored in):
Obama (D): 255 EVs
Romney (R): 235 EVs
Too-Close-To-Call: 48 EV
Posted May 28, 2012 at 9:09 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's recent support of same-sex marriage appears to have swung voters in Maryland, where a marriage referendum will appear on the ballot this fall: a new survey in the state by Public Policy Polling reports a significant increase in support for same-sex marriage among African American voters following President Obama's historic announcement two weeks ago. The referendum to keep the state's new law legalizing same-sex marriage appears headed for victory, with support now at 57% (compared to 37% against), a 12 point shift from a similar survey in early March.
Posted May 25, 2012 at 7:08 AM by Maurice Berger
Three new surveys by NBC/Marist report that President Obama maintains a narrow lead over Mitt Romney in three key battleground states: Florida, Ohio
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 44%
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 42%
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 44%
Posted May 23, 2012 at 9:26 AM by Maurice Berger
Although Tennessee has been a traditional red state in presidential elections (even when native son Al Gore ran in 2000), a new poll by Vanderbilt University poll reports that President Obama has pulled into a virtual tie with Mitt Romney. In the survey, Romney leads Obama by +1% among likely voters, 42% to 41%; however, among registered voters, Romney has a considerably larger lead, 47% to 40%.
Posted May 21, 2012 at 8:56 AM by Maurice Berger
In presidential elections, long-term expectations of who will win are often more important than the actual polling distance between the candidates. By this measure, President Obama is well situated. According to a new survey by Gallup, "56% of Americans think Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election, compared with 36% who think Mitt Romney will win. Democrats are more likely to believe that Obama will win than Republicans are to believe Romney will. Independents are nearly twice as likely to think that Obama, rather than Romney, will prevail."
Posted May 17, 2012 at 8:26 AM by Maurice Berger
Three just released national polls show mixed results in the presidential race. Two polls report a slightly Romney lead: Washington Times/JZ Analytics poll shows Mitt Romney just edging President Obama nationally, 44% to 43%. One from YouGov/Economist finds Romney ahead 46% to 42%. Another, from Fox News reports that Obama now leads Romney by seven points, 46% to 39%. Just three weeks ago the same poll showed the candidates were tied at 46%.
Posted May 16, 2012 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey for Critical Insights in Maine reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by +8%--50% to 42%--numbers that also show the president hovering at the 50% mark, an important indicator of his potential strength in the state.
Posted May 15, 2012 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Glengariff Group in Michigan reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney, 45% to 40%.
Posted May 14, 2012 at 9:01 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that 51% of Americans say they approve of President Obama's position that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry legal. 60% say, however, that the president's shift in position will have no bearing on how they vote in the November election.
Posted May 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger
In another sign of the president's improving prospects for reelection, a new survey by Bloomberg Global reports that investors around the world increasingly prefer President Obama to Mitt Romney in the presidential election, 49% to 38%. As recently as two months ago, the candidates were tied in the poll.
Posted May 10, 2012 at 8:37 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Investors Business Daily/TIPP reports that President Obama holds a slight +3% lead nationally over GOP challenger Mitt Romney--46% to 43%.
Posted May 09, 2012 at 8:58 AM by Maurice Berger
In a development that could complicate President Obama's reelection effort, "the number of black and Hispanic registered voters has fallen sharply since 2008, posing a serious challenge to the Obama campaign in an election that could turn on the participation of minority voters," according to a story in the Washington Post. The Post continues: "Voter rolls typically shrink in non-presidential election years, but this is the first time in nearly four decades that the number of registered Hispanics has dropped significantly."
Posted May 08, 2012 at 8:16 AM by Maurice Berger
Despite the hopes of the Obama campaign for picking up the traditionally Republican state of Arizona--and recent polls suggesting that the state might be competitive in the presidential election--a new survey by Magellan Strategies reports that Mitt Romney holds a considerable +9% lead over President Obama, 52% to 43%.
Posted May 07, 2012 at 9:14 AM by Maurice Berger
The latest batch of Quinnipiac polls reports a tightening of the presidential race in three key swing states:
Florida: Romney 44%, Obama 43%
Ohio: Obama 44%, Romney 42%
Pennsylvania: Obama 47%, Romney 39%.
Posted May 04, 2012 at 9:34 AM by Maurice Berger
In another dramatic indication of the changing demographics of the American electorate, a new poll by the Washington Post in Virginia reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by +7%--51% to 44%. The post analysis concludes that "Virginia voters are equally split on Obama's major initiatives, including his signature health care reform law, and remain deeply pessimistic about the way things are going in the country. But the president has a key advantage in his bid for reelection: The coalition of Virginians that propelled him to victory in 2008 -- young voters, suburban Washingtonians, women and African Americans -- is largely intact."
Posted May 02, 2012 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger
Arizona, a reliable red state in presidential elections, holds some good news for President Obama: a new Rocky Mountain Poll in the state finds President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney, 42% to 40% with 18% undecided. An earlier survey, by Merrill/Morrisson Institute reported a two-point lead for Romney, a surprisingly close race (fueled, in part, by Hispanic voters unhappy with the GOP agenda on immigration issues) for a GOP candidate.
Posted May 01, 2012 at 9:42 AM by Maurice Berger
Purple Poll surveys four key swing states and finds an extremely close presidential race: President Obama is ahead of Mitt Romney in Ohio 49% to 44%, and holds a slight lead in Virginia, 48% to 46%. The candidates are tied in Colorado, 47% to 47%. Romney holds a slight lead in Florida, 47% to 45%.
Posted Apr 30, 2012 at 8:09 AM by Maurice Berger
The latest survey from Fox News reports that if the presidential election were held now, the race would be tied, with President Obama and Mitt Romney each garnering 46%. Interesting, and perhaps one reason for the closeness of the race as reported by the Fox poll: a majority of Americans -- 61% for President Obama and 58% for Mitt Romney -- believe that neither candidate has a plan to fix the economy.
Posted Apr 27, 2012 at 8:32 AM by Maurice Berger
In yet another piece of positive election news for President Obama's reelection effort, a new survey by CNN/Opinion Research reports that 43% of "Americans say things are going well in the country," an increase of +19% points from August. Still, 57% say things are still "going badly," but Obama's modest lead over Romney in most recent polls suggest that this negativity does not immediately translate into support for his GOP challenger, Mitt Romney.
Posted Apr 26, 2012 at 9:25 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by Fox News suggests that the President continues to hold hold a very modest lead over Mitt Romney in Florida, where he is ahead by two points, 45% to 43%.
Posted Apr 24, 2012 at 9:01 AM by Maurice Berger
Another poll, by Fox News, released late last week reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by six points in the key swing state of Ohio--45% to 39.
Posted Apr 23, 2012 at 9:22 AM by Maurice Berger
Some good news for President Obama in the key swing state of Ohio--a new Rasmussen poll in Ohio reports that he now leads Mitt Romney by four points, 46% to 42%.
Posted Apr 20, 2012 at 10:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Dartmouth College in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney has a slight edge over President Obama in a general election match up, 44% to 42%.
Posted Apr 19, 2012 at 7:52 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by CBS News/New York Times reports that Mitt Romney has closed the gap with President Obama among registered voters nationally: the two are now tied at 46% each.
Posted Apr 17, 2012 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger
Gallup has a fascinating demographic snapshot of the president's approval rating, now at 47%. Significantly, he holds a solid majority from his own party (84%), and does extremely well with African American (88%) and Hispanic voters (61%). The demographic breakdown also suggest a few red flags for the President's reelection effort: only 36% of white voters approve of his performance, he polls no better than 38% with voters over the age of 65%, and--perhaps most significantly--his standing among independents hovers at 40%. The good news for the administration: approval numbers do not always reflect voter sentiment in a general election. Obama's fares much better with independents, for example, when pitted against his likely GOP challenger, Mitt Romney. Stay tuned.
Posted Apr 16, 2012 at 8:37 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by Economist/YouGov suggests a major problem for Mitt Romney as he moves into the general election phase of his campaign: that he out of touch and does not care about people. The poll notes: "Obama does not really have that problem: 48% say Obama cares about people like them, 52% say he does not. That's not a rip-roarin' populist image, but it certainly surpasses Romney's scores: 38% say Romney cares about people like them, 63% he does not."
Posted Apr 13, 2012 at 9:38 AM by Maurice Berger
In yet another example of relatively strong numbers for the president's reelection effort, a new survey by Public Policy Polling in North Carolina reports that President Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points, 49% to 44%. PPP notes: "The Republican nomination process has taken a huge toll on Romney's image in North Carolina. In February of 2011 voters in the state were almost evenly divided on him with 37% rating him favorably to 39% who had a negative opinion of him. Now that spread is a dreadful 29/58. His numbers with GOP voters are about where they've been, but he's seen a considerable drop in his appeal to Democrats and independents."
Posted Apr 11, 2012 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger
One reason the president's reelection numbers have improved in recent months, according to a poll by the Washington Post is that his support among independent women -- a key group of swing voters --has improved considerably. According to the survey, "Obama had been trailing Romney by five points in a series of surveys late last year. But that number shifted dramatically in polling conducted in February and March, and the president took a 14% lead over the former Massachusetts governor, marking a net gain of 19%."
Posted Apr 05, 2012 at 8:39 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack has made substantive changes to Today's Map that suggest that if the election were held today, President Obama would secure enough electoral votes to achieve victory. Much can change between now and November, but given the improvement in the President's numbers over the past six months, this change represents significant movement
Posted Apr 04, 2012 at 9:28 AM by Maurice Berger
A new USA Today/Gallup poll in a dozen battleground states finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney, 51% to 42%. The survey finds that the "biggest change came among women under 50. In mid-February, just under half of those voters supported Obama. Now more than six in 10 do while Romney's support among them has dropped by 14 points, to 30%. The president leads him 2-1 in this group."The ten states surveyed were: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Posted Mar 30, 2012 at 12:25 AM by Maurice Berger
A poll from ABC News-Washington Post reports that Mitt Romney now trails President Obama by 19% in popularity. Just 34% hold a favorable opinion of Romney as compared to 53% for Obama. In the poll, Romney's 50% unfavorable score is higher than Obama ever has received.
Posted Mar 28, 2012 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger
In another sign that President Obama may have the edge in his reelection effort this fall, a new survey by Economist/YouGov reports that the President leads Mitt Romney among women by a considerable +17 points, 55% to 38%. Still, Romney edges Obama among men by 45% to 43%--a number not sufficient enough for the Republican to overtake Obama's lead among women.
Posted Mar 21, 2012 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup, "26% of Americans are now satisfied with the way things are going in the country, up from 22% in February and 18% in January. Satisfaction has not been this high since last May when it previously hit 26% -- buoyed by the death of Osama bin Laden -- and before that, April 2010 when it was 27%." While this number is still low, it suggest relative, nd perhaps politically valuable, improvement for the President's reelection effort. Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Mar 14, 2012 at 11:28 PM by Maurice Berger
In an important indicator for the President--since, as PollTrack note, perception plays a big role in politics--a new Pew Research survey reports that 59% of American voters say that President Obama is likely to be re-elected if his opponent is Mitt Romney; between Obama and Rick Santorum, 68% anticipate an Obama victory.
Posted Mar 14, 2012 at 3:02 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new survey by Rasmussen, "President Obama now holds a modest lead over Mitt Romney . . . in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The numbers mark a shift from late February when Obama was tied in the four states. Obama is now ahead of the former Massachusetts governor 46% to 42%. 6% prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and 6% are undecided."
Posted Mar 09, 2012 at 3:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A new national Fox News Latino poll of likely Latino voters reports that "73% approve of Obama’s performance in office, with over half those questioned looking favorably upon his handling of the healthcare debate and the economy, at 66% and 58% respectively. . . . the poll shows that the overwhelming choice among likely Latino voters is President Obama. In head-to-head match-ups none of the GOP candidates would garner more than 14 percent of the Latino vote come November." If these numbers can be sustained, PollTrack believes that it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for a GOP candidate to make up the difference. The poll is very good news for the President's reelection effort and a warning to Republicans.
Posted Feb 21, 2012 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger
Although President Obama's standing in many of the swing states--including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio--have show improvement in recent weeks, his standing in one state, Iowa, is actually in decline. A poll by the Des Moines Register in Iowa shows the president trailing three of the four Republican candidates in head-to-head match-ups: Ron Paul, who leads Obama by +7%, 49% to 42%. Rick Santorum leads 48% to 44%. Mitt Romney leads Obama 46% to 44%. The president defeats only Newt Gingrich, 51% to 37%. PollTrack moves Iowa on Today's Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Republican.
Posted Feb 16, 2012 at 2:21 AM by Maurice Berger
As PollTrack noted yesterday, the tide appears to be turning in favor of the president's reelection. Two new polls, hypothetical matchups for the fall election, confirm this observation. A survey by CNN/Opinion Research reports that President Obama bests all of his possible Republican rivals in GOP match ups: Obama leads Romney, 51% to 46%, tops Santorum, 52% to 45%, beats Paul, 52% to 45%, and crushes Gingrich, 55% to 42%.
Another poll, by Fox News, of key battleground states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin -- reports the same: Obama leads Romney, 47% to 39%, tops Santorum, 48% to 38%, beats Paul 48% to 37% and crushes Gingrich, 52% to 32%.
Posted Feb 09, 2012 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by DailyKos/Public Policy Polling suggests a potential problem for the GOP in its quest to unseat President Obama: The poll finds that 58% of Democrats were "very excited" about voting in
this year's election, as compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months
ago, enthusiasm tilted towards Republicans, 54% to 48%.
The Daily Kos observes: "Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for the GOP."
Posted Feb 08, 2012 at 1:41 AM by Maurice Berger
With a new survey by WMUR Granite State Poll reporting that President Obama's standing in New Hampshire has improved considerably over the past six months--Obama's approval rating now stands at 51% and he beats Mitt Romney in a possible general election match up, 50% to 40%--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Presidential Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Democratic.
Posted Feb 02, 2012 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger
With a new Public Policy Polling survey reporting that President Obama has broken even with Ohio voters-- 48% now approve of him with an equal 48% disapproving--PollTrack now rates the state "Leaning Democrat" on Today's Map. This call is influenced by another finding in the poll: Just 28% of Ohioans have a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney to 56% with a negative one. According to the survey, Obama leads Romney in a possible general election match up by seven points, 49% to 42%.
Posted Jan 31, 2012 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger
A new USAToday/Gallup survey of the dozen states likely to determine the outcome of November's election--Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin--concludes that Mitt Romney is the "GOP contender with the best chance of denying Obama a second term." The poll reports that "in a head-to-head race, Romney leads Obama by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 48%-47% . . . But Obama leads Gingrich, 54%-40%. The president's standing against him has risen nine points since early December; Gingrich has fallen by eight. Gingrich fares less well than Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who trails Obama by seven points, 50%-43%, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who also trails by seven points, 51%-44%."
Posted Jan 27, 2012 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger
According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's third-year approval average--at 44%--is the second lowest for a president in the past 50-years. Looking just at other elected presidents' third-year averages, only Jimmy Carter's 37% average in 1979-1980 is lower than Obama's. Ronald Reagan's third-year average of 45% was similar to Obama's. Crucial to reading this analysis, PollTrack believes, is the perception of the electorate moving into the fourth year: if the economic and political climate appear to be improving, as they were with Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, the voters often reelect a president with relatively low approval ratings in the third year. So PollTrack will keep a close eye on the economic atomosphere as we move into election 2012. Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Jan 19, 2012 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger
Good news for President Obama: according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling, the President leads Mitt Romney in a general election match, at 49% to 44% nationally. This is Obama's best showing in months, an increase in support due, in part, to the steep decline of Romney's favorable rating, with only 35% rating him favorably while 53% have a negative opinion of him.
Posted Jan 02, 2012 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey from the highly respect--and often very accurate--Des Moines Register reports that Mitt Romney now leads with 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7%. The bog news may well be Santorum's surprisingly strong showing: "If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21%, pushing Paul to third, at 18%. Romney remains the same, at 24%."
Posted Dec 29, 2011 at 2:06 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Gallup, reports that "Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama continue to be named by Americans as the Most Admired Woman and Most Admired Man living today in any part of the world. Clinton has been the Most Admired Woman each of the last 10 years, and Obama has been the Most Admired Man four years in a row. Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama, Sarah Palin, and Condoleezza Rice round out the top five Most Admired women, while the top five Most Admired men also include George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Billy Graham, and Warren Buffett." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Dec 21, 2011 at 12:56 AM by Maurice Berger
In a report that spells good news for President Obama, his job approval rating has risen to a near majority--49%--according to a just released survey by ABC News/Washington Post The survey notes that this is Obama's "best showing since spring, and one, if it holds, that may put his re-election prospects back within reach."
Posted Dec 08, 2011 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger
Another poll in Iowa, this one by New York Times-CBS News reports that Newt Gingrich has pull into a significant lead over GOP rivals with 31%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at 16%, Rick Perry at 11% and the rest of the field in single digits.
Posted Dec 02, 2011 at 12:52 AM by Maurice Berger
According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's overall decline in Gallup's daily presidential job approval index has now surpassed that of Jimmy Carter. The president's aggregate approval numbers for November 2011--a year out from the culmination of his reelection effort--represent the worst job approval rating of any president at this stage of his term in modern political history. Significantly, however, a series of recent analyses of approval ratings relative to reelection suggest that presidential numbers at this point are not always predictive of outcome. Such variables as an approving economy, the electability of the challenger, and the increasingly swift turn over of news cycles in a world a new media can all contribute to the eventual outcome of a presidential cycle. So PollTrack will be watching the next few months very closely.
Posted Nov 25, 2011 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger
A poll by McClatchy-Marist reports that Newt Gingrich is the strongest Republican presidential candidate when matched head to head against President Obama. Obama leads Gingrich by two points, 47% to 45%; he bests Mitt Romney by 4 points, 49% to 44%; and Ron Paul by 8 points, 49% to 41%.
Posted Nov 11, 2011 at 12:41 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by Gallup reports that President Obama's relative standing against a generic Republican candidate has improved considerably since the early fall. He now leads 43% to 42%. In Gallup's September and October polls, Obama trailed 38% to 46%. Gallup writes: "The evenness of independents' preferences marks a significant change from September and October, when independents favored the Republican candidate by a significant margin. The current pattern more closely resembles where independents were earlier this year, when Obama and the Republican were evenly matched... The changes in this survey matchup between Obama and a generic Republican candidate no doubt foreshadow the potential political volatility to come over the next 12 months."
Posted Nov 07, 2011 at 12:35 AM by Maurice Berger
A poll by Reuters/Ipsos reports that President Obama's approval rating is up slightly, now at 49%, with disapproval at 50%. PollTrack's aggregate numbers alas show slight improvement: with his approval rating at 46% (up from 44% last month) and a disapproval number at 50.8%.
Posted Nov 04, 2011 at 4:22 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation reports that the health care reform law's popularity has hit an all-time low with Americans.
Only 34% of those surveyed had a favorable view of the legislation, while 51% held an unfavorable view.
Posted Oct 24, 2011 at 10:54 PM by Maurice Berger
A poll USA Today/Gallup indicates that a majority of Americans--for the first time--blame President Obama for the nation's economic problems. 53% believe that Obama deserves "a great deal" or a "moderate amount" of the blame for the economic problems that the country currently faces. Nevertheless, an even larger number -- 69% -- believe that former President George Bush deserves a "great deal" or a "moderate amount" of blame for the economy.
Posted Oct 24, 2011 at 2:41 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by AP-GfK reports that 50% of Americans believe that President Obama does not deserve re-election. Still, Obama runs about even or slightly ahead of all three men in hypothetical matchups with possible GOP nominees, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, or Rick Perry.
Posted Oct 17, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger
In yet another indicator of an icreasingly difficult reelection race for the president in 2012, Mark McKinnon observes that "the average consumer confidence index when a president running for reelection wins is 95. When they lose, it's 76. Today the number is 55." Still, the present-day economic situation is highly unusual in that most Americans continue to blame the bad economy on forces outside of Obama's control.
A just released survey by CBS News poll reports that 69% of Americans believe President Obama has not made real progress in fixing the economy; 25% say he has made real progress. Yet, on the question of who to blame for the shaky economy, most--22%--cited the Bush administration, followed by Wall Street at 16%, Congress at 15% and then the Obama administration at 12%. One in 10 said "all of the above. Will this perception help President Obama in his quest for reelection. PollTrack thinks it's too early to tell.
Posted Oct 07, 2011 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 55% of those surveyed believe President Obama will not be reelected next year, while 37% say he'll win. This kind of pessimism about a president's reelection prospects can serve as a self-fulfilling prophecy, both spurring on GOP support and dispiriting Democrats, whose lack of enthusiasm may result in lower voter turn out.
Posted Sep 21, 2011 at 12:11 AM by Maurice Berger
With his approval rating fairly low in Pennsylvania, it can only be seen as good news for President Obama that in a just released Magellan Strategies survey in Pennsylvania finds President Obama he now holds a comfortable lead pover potential Republican challengers Mitt Romney by 50% to 40%, and Rick Perry by 52% to 37%. PollTrack now rates the state "Leaning Democratic."
Posted Sep 19, 2011 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a survey by Bloomberg poll, 64% of Americans maintain a favorable view of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The poll also reports that 34% of respondents are "suffering a form of buyer's remorse," saying the U.S. would be better off now if she had become president in 2008 instead of Barack Obama.
Posted Sep 12, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted Sep 09, 2011 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger
An assessment of the President's August poll numbers by Gallup reports that Obama's approval rating has hit a new low. Just 41% approved of the president's overall job performance in August (a three point drop from July). He also received term-low monthly approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).
Posted Sep 07, 2011 at 1:49 AM by Maurice Berger
In numbers that may well bode poorly for the President, a new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania reports that his approval rating in the state is just 34%. Since PA is key presidential battleground state, it will be imperative for the Democrat to improve his standing in a state that has gone with the Democrat in every election since 1992.
Posted Sep 02, 2011 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by Muhlenberg College poll suggests that President Obama's reelection effort may be in trouble in Pennsylvania. His approval rate has dropped to 35% in the key swing state. The poll's analysis concludes that there may be room for movement in the poll: "31% of Pennsylvanians say their vote in November 2012 will depend on who the Republican candidate is. And Obama still slightly edges out an anonymous GOP contender 36 percent to 31%." Nevertheless, with the incumbent polling well below that 48% to 50% threshold, the numbers suggest a difficult race for Obama in 2012.
Posted Sep 01, 2011 at 12:36 AM by Maurice Berger
In what has very serious implications for President Obama's reelection chances, a new survey by Public Policy Polling survey reports a considerable ebb of Democratic enthusiasm about voting in next year's election. Just 48% of Democrats--a new low--say they were "very excited" about voting in 2012. In 13 previous polls, the average level was 57%. It had risen as high as 65% (during the 2008 presidential election) and only twice had the number dropped below 55%.
Posted Aug 29, 2011 at 2:42 AM by Maurice Berger
In what is clearly good news for the President's reelection chances, a survey by CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that Obama's Democratic base remains overwhelmingly behind him. 70% of Democrats now say that they would like to see Obama as their party's presidential nominee next
Posted Aug 26, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by Gallup (of registered voters) reports that President Obama may be headed for a very tight reelection effort. Mitt Romney leads Obama, 48% to 46%, Rick Perry and Obama are tied at 47%, and Obama edges out Ron Paul, 47% to 45%, and tops Michele Bachmann, 48% to 44%.
Posted Aug 22, 2011 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by Gallup reports that President Obama has dropped to a new low approval rate of 26% for his handling of the economy, down 11 points since it was last measured it in mid-May and well below his previous low of 35% in November 2010. He fares equally poorly on his his handling of the federal budget deficit (24%) and creating jobs (29%).
Posted Aug 16, 2011 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by McClatchy-Marist reports that Americans are evenly divided over the question of whether President Obama deserves re-election: 40% say they will definitely vote for the president next year; 40% say they will not. The remaining 20% are unsure. Still, the poll detects an inherent edge for the president: when matched against specific Republican challengers Obama edges out every one, a possible indication of the weakness of the GOP field as well as the general likeability of the president.
Posted Aug 15, 2011 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Sunday's presidential approval tracking poll, President Obama's approval rating has dropped to the lowest point of his presidency, and the first time it has dipped below 40%. Obama now stands at 39% approval, while a significant 54% of voters disapprove of his job performance.
Posted Aug 12, 2011 at 1:37 AM by Maurice Berger
In yet another sign that the road to reelection may be moe difficult than expected for President Obama, a new Quinnipiac poll in the key swing state of Florida reports that the president's job approval rating is a negative 44% to 51%. Florida voters also say by a 50% to 42% margin that the president does not deserve to be reelected. Nevertheless, with weak Republican opposition, the president manages to best two of all potential candidates and ties another:Mitt Romney is dead even with Obama at 44%; the president has double-digit leads over other top Republicans, except for Texas Gov. Rick Perry who trails Obama 44% to 39%.
Posted Aug 08, 2011 at 12:49 AM by Maurice Berger
A New York Times/CBS News survey suggest that the road ahead for congress will be bumpy: a record 82% of Americans now disapprove of the way Congress is
handling its job -- the most since the question was first asked in 1977. Overall, 72% disapproved of the way Republicans in Congress handled the
negotiations; 66% disapproved of the way Democrats in Congress
handled negotiations. As for
President Obama handling of the debt ceiling negotiations: 47% disapprove
and 46% approve.
Posted Aug 05, 2011 at 12:42 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new USA Today/Gallup poll, the debt ceiling agreement that President Obama worked out with congress remains unpopular with Americans. The poll reports that 39% of Americans approve of the law, while 46% oppose it. Things gets even more negative when independents are polled: a scant 33% of independent voters approved of the deal; 50% disapprove.
Posted Aug 04, 2011 at 12:47 AM by Maurice Berger
A new national poll reports that President Obama's advantage "over a generic Republican challenger in 2012 shrank by 10 points in the past three months. Now, just 41 percent of registered voters say they would send the president back to the White House while 40 percent prefer to elect a Republican candidate, according to a Pew Research Center survey. In May, the president led a generic Republican, 48 percent to 37 percent." The survey, by Pew, suggests "independent voters are driving this drop. In May, 42 percent of independents supported Obama's re-election, while 35 percent preferred his challenger. Now, that figure is upside down: 31 percent of independents are inclined to vote for him in 2012 while 39 percent want to replace him with a Republican."
Posted Aug 03, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger
A new CNN poll reports that 52% of Americans are opposed to the debt reduction deal negotiated between the President and congress; 44% are in favor.
Posted Aug 02, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger
While there may be no real winners in the just concluded Deficit/Debt Ceiling negotiations, a new Gallup poll reports that "Americans are more likely to approve of the way President Obama is handling the negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling than they are to approve of the handling of the situation by Speaker of the House John Boehner or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, although opinions about all three are more negative than positive." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Aug 01, 2011 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger
Going into this past weekend, Gallup reported on a very much unwanted milestone for the Obama administration: its newest tracking poll recorded a record low job approval rating for the president: 40%. While he hit his prior low--41%--several times over the past year, as recently as early June, the president approval number stood at 50%.
Posted Jul 29, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger
It what can be read as good news for President Obama in Ohio, A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has a commanding lead over two potential GOP challengers. Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandel, 49% to 34%, and tops State Sen. Kevin Coughlin, 50% to 32%.Combined with the exceptionally low approval rating of the state's Republican Governor, these numbers suggests that the closely divided state is trending slightly more Democratic in recent days
Posted Jul 28, 2011 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger
According to an analysis by Gallup, "President Barack Obama earned a 46.8% average approval rating in his 10th quarter in office ending July 19, essentially unchanged from the 9th quarter and still above his record-low 7th quarter. The president's latest quarterly average is based on Gallup Daily tracking from April 20 through July 19. Across that time, his three-day rolling average approval ratings have been as high as 53% and as low as 42%."
" . . . Obama is in the company of several former elected presidents who averaged sub-50% approval during their 10th quarters in office. This includes three former presidents who won re-election -- Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan -- and one, Jimmy Carter, who lost. On the other hand, of the three presidents with exceptionally high average approvals at this stage, George H.W. Bush was ultimately defeated, while Dwight Eisenhower and George W. Bush prevailed." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Jul 19, 2011 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger
A Gallup survey of registered voters reports that they are "more likely to vote for the Republican Party's candidate for president" than for President Obama in next year's election. The generic GOP candidate leads by a significant margin: 47% to 39%. Early surveys this year have indicated a much more evenly divided electorate.
Posted Jul 18, 2011 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger
According to the most recent analysis by Gallup, "President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaged 46% in June, down from 50% in May but similar to his ratings from February through April. Obama's strongest support continues to come from blacks (86%), adults aged 18 to 29 (54%), those living in the East (53%), and Hispanics (52%). This is in addition to 81% approval from fellow Democrats (as well as 75% from liberals and 55% from moderates, not shown here). Republicans (14%), conservatives (24%), whites (38%), seniors (39%), and those living in the South (40%) are the least likely to approve of Obama. PollTrack believes that the president average approval rating of 46% places him below the threshold for likely reelection. We will be watching these numbers closely as we move into the 2012 cycle.
Posted Jul 14, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
Some bad news and some good news for the President. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll reports that the number of Americans who believe the country is on the wrong track rose to 63% this month. Yet, this negative world view does not apparently extend to President Obama, who continues to hold an approval rating in the poll at a respectable 49%.
Posted Jul 13, 2011 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger
With Pennsylvania a must win for any Democratic candidate for president, it looks as if President Obama's reelection could be in jeopardy. A just released Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania reports that the state is "looking more and more like it could be a tough hold" for the Democrats in 2012. PPP continues: "[Obama's] approval rating in the state continues to be under water at 46/48... Obama's poll numbers are worse in Pennsylvania than they are in places like Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico, all states that went Republican in 2004 even as Pennsylvania voted Democratic. The President's persistently poor numbers in a state that's gone Democratic in every Presidential election for the last 24 years probably make Pennsylvania the place where Obama should be most concerned about his current standing."
Posted Jun 28, 2011 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released Associated Press-GfK poll reports that Americans are virtually tied on the question of whether President Obama deserves re-election: 48% say yes, 47% no.
Posted Jun 23, 2011 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger
In what may become a looming problem for President Obama in his 2012 reelection effort, a new Gallup survey reports that Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going in the country fell to just 20%; 78% of Americans are now dissatisfied with the nation's direction.
Posted Jun 17, 2011 at 2:30 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reports that Mitt Romney is considerably ahead in his quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president: he now is at 30%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Herman Cain at 12%,
Rick Perry at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Newt Gingrich at 6%, Tim Pawlenty and
Rick Santorum at 4% and Michele Bachmann at 3%. In a general election match up,
45% said they would probably vote to re-elect President Obama; 40% would opt for a generic Republican candidate. Against specific GOP contenders, the president's lead increased considerably, with Obama besting Romney, 49% to 43%.
Posted Jun 13, 2011 at 1:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll reports that President Obama is struggling in his reelection bid in Pennsylvania: "It's no secret that President Obama is on the down-slope politically, and that includes the pivotal state of Pennsylvania. A new poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research says that 48% of Pennsylvanians disapprove of Obama's performance, while 41% approve. Also: Only 43% of registered voters in Pennsylvania say Obama has done well enough to deserve re-election, the poll said; 50% say 'it is time to give a new person a chance.'"
Posted May 27, 2011 at 1:00 AM by Maurice Berger
The latest Quinnipiac poll in Florida has very good news for President Obama: approval rating in the state has improved significantly since early April -- before the death of Osama bin Laden. His numbers have flipped from a net negative approval of 44% to 52% to a net positive of 51% in favor and 43% opposed. Perhaps more significant: a majority of Florida voters now say Obama deserves reelection, 50% to 44%. The biggest movement is among independents: "Obama's improved job rating in Florida is largely due to a big swing among independent voters, from a negative 39% to 55% April 7 to a split 47% to 45% today."
Posted May 10, 2011 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released NBC News poll reports that an outright majority of Americans--52%, according to the survey--strongly believe President Obama made the right decision not to release the photos of Osama bin Laden after he was killed; 24% strongly oppose the decision. Overall, 64% agreed with the president and 29% disagreed.
Posted May 09, 2011 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday morning, President Obama continues to enjoy an appreciable bounce in his approval rating following the successful mission to capture Osama Bin Laden. His aggregate approval rating comes in at 51.6%; his disapproval number 42.3%, for an aggregate advantage of +9.3%.
Posted May 05, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger
After months of hovering in the mid-40% range, President Obama has achieved a considerable bounce after the news of Osama Bin Laden's capture and death. The president's approval rating now stands at 51%; his disapproval number is 43.1%, for an aggregate advantage of +7.9%. Will this number hold up over time. Hard to say, but past history shows that a bounce achieved following a major foreign policy victory tends to be short-lived, especially if the economy is poor and unemployment high. Stay tuned for updates.
Posted May 04, 2011 at 2:55 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted Apr 29, 2011 at 12:43 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released McClatchy-Marist Poll reports that 40% of Americans approve of how President Obama is dealing with the economy; 57% disapprove. These numbers represent the lowest marks of his presidency.
Posted Apr 22, 2011 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger
A new ABC News/Washington Post Poll reports that even though President Obama's job approval rating has dropped to 47 percent, "he leads all potential GOP candidates. In a head-to-head matchups, Obama leads Romney by 4 points, 49-45 percent; Huckabee by 6 points, 50-44 percent; Trump by 12 points, 52-40 percent; Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., by 12 points; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Gingrich by 15 points each; and Palin by 17 points"
Posted Apr 21, 2011 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger
A new McClatchy-Marist Poll suggests that President Obama remains vulnerable in his reelection effort. The survey reports that 44% of American voters say they definitely plan to vote against Obama next year; 37% definitely plan to vote for him; and 18% are unsure. Still, the President bests all Republican challengers in the poll's hypothetical match ups: Mitt Romney does best against Obama, but still trails, 46% to 45%, while Mike Huckabee trails by 48% to 43%.
Posted Apr 18, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger
According last Friday's Gallup Daily tracking poll, President Obama's approval rating now ties his historic low, at 41%. The president has hot this number twice before: in August and October 2010.
Posted Apr 13, 2011 at 12:38 AM by Maurice Berger
In a troubling sign for the administration, a new Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll suggests that President Obama is in a poor position for retaking Florida in his 2012 reellction bid. Right now, only 34% of independent voters in Florida approve of Obama's job performance. Both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee would now defeat the president in Florida if the election were held today.
Posted Mar 30, 2011 at 1:04 AM by Maurice Berger
In what may spell good news for the President's reelection efforts next year, a new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown ahead in his reelection effort, suggesting a lessing of GOP gains in this ultimate swing state. Brown is supported over an unnamed GOP challenger by 45% to 29%. Additionally, voters say--by a margin of 45% to 30%--that Brown deserves a second term. Does this suggest a true reversal of GOP fortunes in the state? Time will tell.
Posted Mar 24, 2011 at 12:37 AM by Maurice Berger
Nearing a full year since passage of the health care bill, a new Gallup poll reports that Americans remain divided about whether it was a good thing or a bad thing, with 46% saying it was a good thing and 44% saying it was a bad thing. 44% also believe the law will make medical care worse, versus 39% who say the law will improve medical care.
Posted Mar 23, 2011 at 12:53 AM by Maurice Berger
While a just released CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that a bare majority of Americans -- 51% -- approve of President Obama's job performance, 60% disapprove of his handling of the economy (with 39% approving), the largest level of disapproval on the issue in his presidency.
Posted Mar 16, 2011 at 1:14 AM by Maurice Berger
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll reports that Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling of the economy--just 43% approve of the way President Obama--but just as significant, 46% say they trust Obama on the issue as compared to 34% who trust Republicans. The poll continues: "What's more, by a 9-point margin Americans now see Obama as better able to handle the deficit than GOP lawmakers in Congress. That represents an 11-point drop for the GOP since December -- a period when Republicans have made cutting federal spending a centerpiece of their agenda."
Posted Mar 15, 2011 at 1:23 AM by Maurice Berger
After an upswing in support for President Obama in recent months, his approval rating is now tied at 47.6% with his disapproval rating in PollTrack's aggregate as of Sunday night.
Posted Mar 11, 2011 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that there may be problems ahead for President Obama in his 2012 reelection bid: Americans now believe the country is on the wrong track by a huge margin--64% to 31%. The move is driven largely by the rise in gasoline prices due to Middle East turmoil. A perhaps even more ominous warning sign: the president's job approval dropped slightly to 49% from last month, but his approval rating among independent voters--a key continuency for his reelection chances--took a significant ten point dive to 37%.
Posted Mar 07, 2011 at 12:59 AM by Maurice Berger
A Winthrop University poll of southern states reports that Mike Huckabee leads his hypothetical rivals in the 2012 Republican presidential primary rivals. Huckabee receives 21.9%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12.9%, Sarah Palin at 8.7%, Mitt Romney at 6.9%, Tim Pawlenty at 6.2% and Ron Paul at 5.7%. The president's approval rating remains extremely low in the South, with just 38% approving and 51% disapproving.
Posted Mar 03, 2011 at 12:53 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released Quinnipiac poll reports that American voters are divided in their opinion about a possible federal government shutdown: 46% say it would be a good thing; 44% believe it would be a bad thing. As for blame if the shutdown occurs: voters would blame Republicans more than President Obama, 47% to 38%.
Posted Feb 28, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
Want a sense of how President Obama is doing in the state by state hunt for electoral votes in 2012? A just released Gallup state survey finds President Obama's approval rating in 2010 ranged from 66% in Hawaii to just 28% in Wyoming. Gallup writes: "More broadly, the president enjoyed 50% or higher approval in a group of 12 traditionally Democratic states, plus the District of Columbia. At the same time, he suffered average approval rates of 43% or less in 18 other states, most of which are traditionally "red" states."Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Feb 23, 2011 at 11:45 PM by Maurice Berger
A just released Newsweek/Daily Beast poll reports that Mike Huckabee is tied with President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 presidential match up, 46% to 46%. In other match ups, Obama edges Mitt Romney, 49% to 47%, beats Donald Trump, 43% to 40%, and tops Sarah Palin, 51% to 40%.
Posted Feb 18, 2011 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger
A Public Policy Polling survey reports that President Obama runs dead even in a re-election match up against a generic Republican, 47% to 47%. But when things get specific, the President's numbers improve considerably: he leads all of the named candidates in the poll, with a 3% advantage over Mike Huckabee, a 5% lead over Mitt Romney, a 9% lead over Newt Gingrich, and a whopping 12% advantage one over Sarah Palin.
Posted Feb 17, 2011 at 1:11 AM by Maurice Berger
A impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll reports that President Obama's approval rating among Latino voters is now up to an impressive 70%, after decreasing last year. Surprisingly, however, just 43% of Latino voters say they are sure they will vote for Obama next year.The latter number continues to suggest an opening for the GOP among Latino voters in the upcoming cycle.
Posted Feb 07, 2011 at 1:27 AM by Maurice Berger
The gap between GOP and Democratic perceptions remains high, according to a new Gallup survey. According to Gallup's analysis, President Obama is one of the most polarizing presidents in decades. Obama's approval ratings in 2010 showed a 68% point gap between the percentage of Democrats who approve of him and the number of Republicans approving -- the largest gap in party ratings of any president since President Eisenhower.
Posted Jan 26, 2011 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's aggregate approval rating surging dramatically in recent days, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds the president in his best position against the major Republican contenders since 2009. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee each trail the president by +5%; Newt Gingrich trails by 12% and Sarah Palin by a whopping 17%.
Posted Jan 21, 2011 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger
As Political Wire notes, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reveals a potentially significant change in public perception about President Obama: 40% see him as a moderate, as compared with 45% who see him as a liberal and 11% who view him as a conservative. The number of voters who see him as moderate is the highest ever for Obama in the WSJ/NBC poll.
Posted Jan 19, 2011 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released Quinnipiac poll reports that Americans--by a 54% to 43% margin--believe that the economy is improving. By a margin of 46% to 28%, Americans also believe that President Obama's policies are helping rather than hurting the economy.
Posted Jan 18, 2011 at 2:11 AM by Maurice Berger
According to two just released polls, the President's approval numbers have risen considerably. In both polls, his support among Democrats and Republicans remain unchanged. The difference: his numbers among independent voters, now up about 15%. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll reports that Obama's approval rating is at 54%, the highest in more than a year. CNN/Opinion Research poll finds Obama's approval rating is up five points to 53% "as a growing number of Americans consider him a strong leader who is tough enough to handle a crisis."
Posted Jan 17, 2011 at 2:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A new McClatchy-Marist Poll reports that 71% of registered voters want to political leaders to compromise in order to get things done; 23% believe Republicans should stand firm on their positions, even if it results in a stalemate between them and Democrats. In terms of voter expectations, 52% believe Republicans will stand firm on their positions. As pollster Lee Miringoff observes: "Voters have taken notice of recent legislative successes. But, there is still a wide gap between what voters want from our nation's political leaders and what they think is likely to occur."
Is The President's Improved Approval Rating A Result Of More Positive Perceptions About The Economy?
Posted Jan 12, 2011 at 5:22 PM by Maurice Berger
Is President Obama's improved approval rating related to more positive public perceptions about the economy. A new Pew Research survey suggests that the answer might be yes: the poll reports that "the percentage saying they are hearing mostly bad news about the economy has dropped to its lowest point since the question was first asked in December 2008. . . Currently, 24% say they are hearing mostly bad news, down 15 points from 39% in early December. The proportion saying they are hearing a mix of good and bad news has jumped from 55% last month to 68% in the new survey."
Posted Jan 04, 2011 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Rasmussen survey, President Obama's support among Democrats remains high but uneven: "51% of all Democrats Strongly Approve of the president’s performance. When you include those who Somewhat Approve, the president received positive reviews from 82% of those in his party. Yet while 75% of Black Democrats Strongly Approve of the job he's doing as president, only 40% of White Democrats share that level of enthusiasm. That gap is much bigger than it was when Obama first took office in January 2009. During his first week as president, he earned Strong Approval from 88% of Black Democrats and 72% of White Democrats . . . "
Rasmussen continues: "Among White Democratic men, the president now earns Strong Approval from just 33%. That figure is down from 70% during the president’s first week in office. From an ideological perspective, 60% of Liberal Democrats Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance. Only 14% of Conservative Democrats agree (down from 49% during Obama’s first week as president). Overall, including those who Somewhat Approve, the president’s job approval rating is now at 87% among Liberal Democrats and 42% among Conservative Democrats."
Posted Jan 03, 2011 at 2:42 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup: President Barack Obama's job approval rating for Dec. 26-28 is 47%, was "down slightly from his post-midterm-election peak of 49% recorded last week, and close to his average level of approval since November. Currently, 46% of Americans disapprove of Obama's job performance. The general stability in Obama's approval rating since the Nov. 2 midterm elections -- in which his party lost majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives -- can be characterized as positive for Obama. Most presidents whose party suffers major midterm losses see their approval ratings fall. However, one might have expected Obama to see a bump in approval from the flurry of legislation passed in Congress prior to the Christmas recess. These include a bipartisan agreement to extend the Bush tax cits, repealing the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy for gay service members, passing a major food safety bill, and Senate ratification of the START arms reduction treaty with Russia."
Posted Dec 30, 2010 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger
Gallup reports that "Americans widely agree that the United States has a unique character because of its history and Constitution that sets it apart from other nations as the greatest in the world. This view, commonly referred to as "U.S. exceptionalism," is shared by at least 73% of Americans in all party groups, including 91% of Republicans. . . . On the whole, Americans, by 58% to 37%, believe Obama thinks the U.S. is exceptional, consistent with what he and his advisers maintain. But Americans are less likely to believe Obama holds this view than they are to think the same about Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush." For more on the survey click here.
Posted Dec 29, 2010 at 2:17 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released survey from CNN/Opinion Research reports that 78% of Democrats would like to see President Obama renominated for a second term. Hovering nearly 80%, this number the highest the President's support among Democrats support has been all year.
Posted Dec 28, 2010 at 1:41 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released survey by CNN/Opinion Research reports that 54% of Americans continue to oppose the new health care law; 43% support the law. 25% of say they oppose the new law because it is not liberal enough; 37% oppose it because it is too liberal.
Posted Dec 23, 2010 at 2:18 AM by Maurice Berger
Acoording to a just released Gallup poll shows President Obama's approval rating--now overall at 46%--has improved among GOP voters: "Liberal Democrats' approval of Obama remained subdued, averaging 80% in the past week, similar to the 79% in the previous week and below the 88% found just prior to the midterm elections... In contrast, Obama's approval rating among moderate/liberal Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) has increased in December, rising from 20% to 29% in just the past two weeks. This is his highest level of support from moderate/liberal Republicans since May."
Posted Dec 21, 2010 at 4:57 PM by Maurice Berger
Right now, president Obama would win the Democratic primary handily against hypothetical Democratic challengers. A according to a new Magellan Strategies poll in New Hampshire, the President Obama is well positioned in the unlikely event he's challenged in a Democratic presidential primary. He beats Hillary Clinton by 31 points--59% to 28%, and bests Howard Dean by 68 points--78% to 10%.
Posted Dec 14, 2010 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger
An analysis of yesterday's polling from Marist University by Nate Silver suggests the erosion of support among Democrats and liberals could--the operative word is could--have an adverse effect on President's Obama's reelection chances. Silver observes: "A new poll from Marist University is suggestive of a potential worst-case scenario for President Obama. As he endures criticism from his left over his handling of the tax policy debate with Republicans, his approval rating has declined among liberals, according to the poll: 69% of them now approve of his job performance as compared with 78% in November. Likewise, his approval rating has declined among Democrats: to 74% from 83%. However, there has been no comparable improvement in Mr. Obama’s standing among independents. . . . " For the full analysis, click here.
Posted Dec 13, 2010 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger
The latest McClatchy-Marist poll finds an erosion of President Obama's Democratic political base, probably the result of his tax compromise with the GOP. The president's approval rating has dropped to a new low, according to the polll: 42%. More: "Obama's standing among Democrats dropped from a month ago, with his approval rating falling to 74% from 83%, and his disapproval rating almost doubling, from 11% to 21% . . . . His position among independents remained virtually the same, with 39 percent approving and 52% disapproving. A month ago, it was 38% to 54%."
Posted Dec 08, 2010 at 12:50 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a just released SurveyUSA poll, voters who contributed to Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign are overmelingly opposed to his deal with Republicans to extend the Bush-era tax breaks for those making over $250,000 a year. 74% now say they do not support the deal. 51% say they are less likely to contribute to Obama's reelection campaign in 2012, and 57% say it makes them less likely to support congressional Democrats who support this deal in 2012.
Posted Dec 07, 2010 at 4:07 AM by Maurice Berger
This analysis from Jeff Madrick via Frank Rich via, in The New York Times, should make the Democrats worry, re: the President's reelection chances in 2012: "As the economics commentator Jeff Madrick wrote in The Huffington Post, the unemployment rate has been above 7 percent only four times in a presidential election year since World War II — and in three of the four the incumbent lost (Ford, Carter, the first Bush). Reagan did win in 1984 with an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent, but the rate was falling rapidly (from a high of 10.8 two years earlier) . . . But as Madrick adds, there has never been a sitting president over that period who has had to run with an unemployment rate as high as 8 percent — which is precisely where the Fed’s most recent forecasts predict the rate could be mired when Obama faces the voters again in 2012."
Posted Dec 02, 2010 at 1:18 AM by Maurice Berger
With its treasure trove of 55 winner take all Electoral Votes, California is important to President Obama's reelection prospects in 2012. A new analysis, suggests that the Democrats are well positioned in the state. A Los Angeles Times/USC poll reports that California voters, by a wide margin, are reluctant to support GOP candidates. "Strikingly, almost one in five California voters said they would never cast a ballot for a Republican," the survey reports. "Among Latinos, that rose to almost one in three. Only 5% of California voters were as emphatically anti-Democrat . . . The negative overlay both explained and helped determine the fates of the party's candidates in November. As a GOP tide swept the nation, Republicans here lost all statewide offices, with one contest, for attorney general, still unresolved but leaning toward the Democrat. Republicans here also failed to gain any congressional seats and lost a legislative seat."
Posted Nov 29, 2010 at 3:00 AM by Maurice Berger
For more than five months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number continues to remain lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval has fallen below the 45% mark and is now at 44.6%. His disapproval is well over the 50% mark at 51.0%
Posted Nov 08, 2010 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger
For more than three months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating shows a slight decline at 46.5%. His disapproval number holds steady at 49.5%.
Posted Oct 22, 2010 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup, President Obama's approval rating averaged just 44.7% for the last quarter, a number that marks a new low since he took office in January 2009. Only 39% of Americans believe Obama deserves re-election in 2012; 54% believe he does not. Gallup notes, however, that both Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan "were in similar poor standing at this point in their presidencies, and both recovered in time to win second terms as president."
Posted Oct 18, 2010 at 12:55 AM by Maurice Berger
Nearing the three month mark of continued deficits in public approval, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating has declined further from last week and is now at 44.8% (from 45.2% last week). His disapproval number, has increased slightly in PollTrack's weekly analysis to 50.4% (from 49.2% last week).
Posted Oct 11, 2010 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger
For more than two months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating shows a slight decline at 45.2% (from 46.0% last week). His disapproval number, has increased slightly in PollTrack's weekly analysis to 49.2% (from 48.4% last week).
Posted Oct 04, 2010 at 1:43 AM by Maurice Berger
For more than two months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating shows improvement at 46.0% (a +1% increase from last week). His disapproval number, has also declined in PollTrack's weekly analysis: 48.4% (a significant -3.0% decrease). Statistical blip or are the Democrats coming back to their party and president. Stay tuned.
Posted Sep 27, 2010 at 2:09 AM by Maurice Berger
For more than two months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating remains stable at 45.0% (a modest decline from last week). His disapproval number, however, is now at a record high in PollTrack's weekly analysis: 51.3%.
Posted Sep 22, 2010 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger
Assessing the president's reelection chances in 2012, a new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Obama is tied at 47% with a generic Republican challenger. PPP writes: "The takeaway from this poll is about the same as every month -- Obama's pretty weak but his likely opposition is pretty darn weak too."
Posted Sep 20, 2010 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger
For two months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 45.2% (a modest increase from last week). His disapproval number is 50.6% (a +1.0% increase from last week).
Posted Sep 17, 2010 at 2:16 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Democracy Corps survey reports that by a 55% to 38% margin, Americans favor the view espoused by the Obama administration and Democrats in the debate on extending the Bush tax cuts for everyone earning less than $250,000 but letting them lapse for the wealthiest Americans.
Posted Sep 13, 2010 at 12:39 AM by Maurice Berger
For the seventh straight week, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.6% (a slight decline from last week). His disapproval number is 49.6% (a slight decline from last week).
Posted Sep 10, 2010 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released Quinnipiac poll reports that the Republican Party continues to lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot, 42% to 37% margin. The same poll reports that President Obama continues to receive a negative 44% to 47% approval rating, statistically unchanged from his record-low two weeks ago.
Posted Sep 07, 2010 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger
The summer has not been good to the Obama administration. While the president's numbers showed slight improvement last week, he is back down again, and, for the sixth straight week, his aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating is up to the mid-40s range, at 44.8% (a 2% decline from last week). His disapproval number is 51.0% (a 3% increase from last week).
Posted Sep 02, 2010 at 1:38 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup analysis, "Muslim Americans continue to give President Barack Obama the highest job approval rating of any major religious group in the U.S., while Mormons give the president the lowest ratings." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Aug 30, 2010 at 2:22 AM by Maurice Berger
Continued slight improvement for the President this week, though, for the fifth straight week, his aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating is up to the mid-40s range, at 46.0% (a slight decline from last week). His disapproval number is 48.2% (a slight decline from last week).
Posted Aug 23, 2010 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger
A slight improvement for the President this week. Still, for the fifth straight week, his aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating is up to the mid-40s range, at 46.5% (a two-point improvement from last week). His disapproval number is 49.8% (a full point decline from last week).
Posted Aug 17, 2010 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger
Gallup's presidential approval tracking poll over the past few days has registered the lowest number yet for President Obama. As of Monday afternoon, Obama's approval number had dropped to the low-40s to 42% (with disapproval up to 50%, an all time high).
UPDATE: As of Tuesday afternoon, Obama's disapproval number ticked up a point to 51.0%. His approval number remains at 42%.
Posted Aug 16, 2010 at 5:23 AM by Maurice Berger
For the forth straight week, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.4% (a slight drop from last week). His disapproval number is 50.8% (almost a full point increase from last week).
Posted Aug 10, 2010 at 12:43 AM by Maurice Berger
A new CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that 11% of Americans believe that President Obama was definitely not born in the United States; another 16% say that the president was probably not born in the country--a combined 27% of respondents who continue to question the president's birthplace.
Posted Aug 09, 2010 at 1:54 AM by Maurice Berger
For the third straight week, President Obama's aggregate approval number has stalled, and his disapproval number considerably higher. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.8%. His disapproval number is 50.0%.
Posted Aug 06, 2010 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Kaiser tracking poll reports that opposition to the health care legislation signed into law by President Obama in March has declined over the past month, from 41% to 35%; 50% held a positive view of the law, up from 48% a month ago, and the highest level of support since the legislation was enacted.
Posted Aug 02, 2010 at 2:16 AM by Maurice Berger
For the second straight week, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains at a precipitous new low, and his disapproval number is way up, at a new high. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.7%. His disapproval number is 50.0%.
Posted Jul 29, 2010 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup survey, first lady Michelle Obama's "favorability rating among Americans tops that of several major political players who have called or might someday seek to call the White House home." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Jul 28, 2010 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger
A new AP/Univision poll reports that President Obama's stadning among Hispanics remains high, with 57% approving of his job performance. By contrast, his aggregate approval rating among all Americans, according to PollTrack's latest numbers, hovers at around 44%.
Posted Jul 26, 2010 at 12:52 AM by Maurice Berger
Last week's stabilization of President Obama's approval rating may have been the calm before a brewing storm for the Democratic administration. This week's numbers tell a different story, as Obama's aggregate approval number drops to a precipitous new low, and his disapproval number creeps up to a new high. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.5%. His disapproval is way up at 50.3%.
Posted Jul 22, 2010 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger
Yet another poll has recorded a record low approval rating for the president: a just released Quinnipiac poll reports that President Obama's job approval rating has dipped to 44%, his lowest rating to date in the survey. By a slight 39% to 36% margin, voters say that they would vote for an unnamed Republican rather than reelect Obama in 2012. And by a 48% to 40% margin, respondents say that the president does not deserve reelection in 2012.
Posted Jul 21, 2010 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Pew Research poll suggests that the American public remains substantially unaware that the federal government's bank bailout program was actually signed into law by President Bush. 47% incorrectly believe it was enacted during the Obama's administration; just 34% of Americans answered the question correctly.
Posted Jul 20, 2010 at 2:10 AM by Maurice Berger
In what may be a note of good news for Democrats facing anti-incumbent sentiment in this year's election, a Bloomberg National Poll reports that Americans blame former President George W. Bush more than President Obama for the budget deficit, unemployment and illegal immigration. Bush doesn't do much better when the question turns for foreign policy: 60% say Bush is primarily responsible for the current situation in Afghanistan, for example. Only 10% name Obama.
Posted Jul 19, 2010 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger
This week's aggregate approval rating for President Obama shows a higher approval over disapproval number. PollTrack's weekly average reports the President's approval number is up from last week at 47.6%. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 46.6%, a slight improvement from his recent numbers.
Posted Jul 15, 2010 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger
According to several polls, President Obama is passing through a rough patch vis-a-vis public opinion about his performance in office. Public Policy Polling survey reports that President Obama's approval rating has dropped to a new low: Now, 45% of voters approve of the job he's doing; 52% disapprove. PPP continues: "The two most troublesome things for Obama in his numbers at this point are his standing among white voters and independents. Whites now disapprove of Obama by nearly a 2:1 margin, with 62% giving him bad marks and only 35% saying he's doing a good job. With independents his approval is just 40% and 56% disapprove of his performance." Another poll by Bloomberg reports that Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling "of almost every major issue and are deeply pessimistic about the nation's direction, offering a bullish environment for Republicans in the November congressional elections . . . . A majority or plurality disapproves of Obama's management of the economy, health care, the budget deficit, the overhaul of financial market regulations and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, almost 6 in 10 respondents say the war in Afghanistan is a lost cause."
Posted Jul 12, 2010 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger
For the fourth consecutive week, President Obama's approval remains lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is now somewhat improved at 47.5%; still, his disapproval number higher, at 48.5%.
Posted Jul 08, 2010 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger
In another ominous sign for the President and Democrats in general in this midterm election year, the latest Gallup tracking poll finds President Obama's approval rating is just 38% among independents. This marks the first time approval of Obama among independents has dropped below 40%. A year ago, his standing among these voters was 56%, +18% higher than today's numbers.
Posted Jul 05, 2010 at 4:44 PM by Maurice Berger
For the third consecutive week, President Obama's approval remains lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is 46.3%; his disapproval number is 48.6%.
Posted Jul 01, 2010 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger
An in depth survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation suggests that Americans are becoming increasingly supportive of the new health care reform law. This month, the number of respondents approving of the legislation is actually higher than disapproving: 48% support the law, while 41% had an unfavorable opinion. Just a month ago, the levels of support were reversed, with 41% approving and 44% against.
Posted Jun 30, 2010 at 12:57 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new survey by Gallup, "Americans largely support President Obama's timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan beginning in July 2011, with 58% in favor and 38% opposed. Most who are opposed think no timetable should be set rather than favoring an earlier or later date."
Posted Jun 29, 2010 at 12:46 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup a mere 20% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, a near record low. Gallup's analysis does not bode well for the party now in power: "This year's low approval ratings for Congress are a potentially ominous sign for President Obama and the Democratic majority in Congress. Gallup has found greater party seat change in Congress in midterm elections when Congress has had low approval ratings. Specifically, in the five midterm elections in which Congress' approval ratings at the time of the election were below 40%, there was an average net change in seats of 29 from the president's party to the opposition."
Posted Jun 28, 2010 at 12:04 AM by Maurice Berger
For the second straight week, President Obama's approval continues to trend lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is 46.2%; his disapproval number is 47.4%. Once gain this week, the most recent daily tracking polling shows his approval number migrating slightly downward, but with his aggregate disapproval number creeping downward, as well.
Posted Jun 23, 2010 at 1:12 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup survey, American "registered voters remain split on whether President Obama deserves to be re-elected in 2012, with 46% saying he does and 51% saying he does not -- little changed from earlier this year." Here is their chart:
Gallup continues: "The most recent Obama re-elect measure is similar to the president's basic job approval rating among all Americans, which was 48% in Gallup Daily tracking [in mid-June] . . . Obama received 53% of the popular vote in his 2008 victory over Republican John McCain. The current re-elect data suggest that -- depending on the Republican nominee -- the 2012 presidential election could be quite competitive were it held today."
Posted Jun 21, 2010 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval continues to trend lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is 47.0%; his disapproval number is 49.0%. Once gain this week, the most recent daily tracking polling shows his approval number migrating downward (with disapproval as much as 15% higher than approval).
Posted Jun 14, 2010 at 2:05 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval rating is now slightly lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is 47.3%; his disapproval number is 47.8%. Once gain this week, the most recent daily tracking polling shows his approval trending downward (with disapproval from 3% to 7% higher than approval).
Posted Jun 09, 2010 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Political Insiders Poll reports that among political/Washington insiders, President Obama is fairing poorly in his response to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill: Democrats give him an average grade of C-; Republicans an average grade of D-. The problem may extend well beyond the political class to the electorate at large, as a number of polls measuring the president approval rating this week have shown a discernible decline this week.
Posted Jun 07, 2010 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's aggregate approval number is now exactly equal to his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 46.8%; his approval number is 46.8%. The weeks ahead may prove difficult politically for the president: the most recent polling shows his approval trending downward (with disapproval now higher than approval).
Posted Jun 01, 2010 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval number is nearly equal to his disapproval number, an increase of support over the past two weeks. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 46.3%; his approval number is 46.8%, a virtual tie.
Posted May 26, 2010 at 12:54 AM by Maurice Berger
Rasmussen's daily tracking survey for Tuesday 25 May reports the lowest approval rating for President Obama thus far: 42%. While Rasmussen's disapproval number has been consistently higher than most other polls throughout the last year, their approval number has hovered at or near PollTrack's polling average. Does this new low suggest a trend? Or does it represent an anomaly? Stay tuned.
Posted May 24, 2010 at 12:39 AM by Maurice Berger
Despite a spate of relatively good news for the administration, PollTrack's weekly average indicates that President Obama's approval number have fallen BELOW his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 48.3%; his approval number is 46.0%, a decline from the past few weeks.
Posted May 10, 2010 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger
This week's aggregate approval rating for President Obama continues to show a higher approval over disapproval number. PollTrack's weekly average reports the President's approval number down from last week at 48.2%. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 44.7%, a one-point improvement from last week.
Posted May 03, 2010 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger
This week's aggregate approval rating for President Obama shows marked improvement. PollTrack's weekly average reports the President's approval number at 49.0%. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 45.8%, a significant improvement from last week.
Posted Apr 27, 2010 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger
Oddly, a string of political victories for the President--from dramatic passage of the health care bill to improvement in many economic indicators--is not translating into improved approval numbers for Obama. A new Citizen Opinion/Democracy Corps poll, for example, reports "a significant drop in the proportion thinking the country is off on the wrong track and a rise in the number who think the economy is improving." Yet, this positive assessment is "not producing a change in political thinking. The Republican 7-point advantage on the economy is unchanged this month. There is no growth in people believing Obama's economic policies have produced a better economy." Indeed, the President's aggregate approval number has never been lower. This pattern is somewhat unusual, given the public's tendency to translate an improving economy into increased support for the administration in power. Stay tuned.
Posted Apr 26, 2010 at 12:56 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's weekly average indicates that President Obama's approval number have fallen BELOW his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 47.3%; his approval number is 46.3%, a slight decline from last week.
Posted Apr 22, 2010 at 12:28 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Quinnipiac poll reports that 53% of American voters are "very confident" or "somewhat confident" that President Obama will make the right decision in nominating a U.S. Supreme Court justice; 46% percent are "not too confident" or "not confident at all."
Posted Apr 20, 2010 at 12:40 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that President Obama is virtually tied with all four of the leading candidates for the Republican nomination. The poll's results: Obama trails Mike Huckabee 47% to 45% and Mitt Romney 45% to 44%. He is tied with Newt Gingrich, at 45%. He leads one candidate by a slim margin: Sarah Palin, at 47% to 45%. PPP's analysis suggests that the President is at his weakest point in "13 monthly surveys and a pretty clear indication that passing health care has not done anything to enhance his political standing, at least in the short term."
Posted Apr 19, 2010 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack's weekly average indicates that President Obama's approval numbers have leveled off to a tie. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number equals his approval--both now stand at 48.6%, a slight improvement from last week.
Posted Apr 12, 2010 at 2:12 AM by Maurice Berger
With the modest health care bounce in President Obama's approval numbers gone, PollTrack's weekly average indicates a downward trend in his approval numbers. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is higher than his approval. His approval now stands at 46.1%; his disapproval, at 47.3%. The most recent polls actually indicate a more precipitous drop, with the President's approval number -3.4% lower than his approval number. Stay tuned.
Posted Apr 07, 2010 at 12:23 AM by Maurice Berger
A USA Today/Gallup poll reports that Americans are loosing faith with politicians--attitudes "are reminiscent of those in 1994 and 2006, when control of Congress switched from one party to the other." 28% pf respondents say most members of Congress deserve re-election , a record low. Both major parties have exceptionally low favorability ratings: 41% for Democrats and 42% for Republicans. The President is not exempt from this negativity: 26% saying he deserves "a great deal" of blame for the nation's economic troubles, double the percentage in July.
Posted Apr 05, 2010 at 2:17 AM by Maurice Berger
Last week it appeared that President Obama received a slight bounce in his approval numbers, a week after in historic victory in congress. As of Sunday evening, it looks like the bounce is gone. The president's aggregate approval stands at 47.0%; his disapproval, almost equal at 46.6%. A new CBS News Poll actually shows the president sinking to an all time low approval rating of 44%,
Posted Mar 31, 2010 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger
Far ahead of the game--and at a point where little predictive information can be gained--a new CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that if the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama would garner 47% of registered voters; an unnamed Republican challenger would poll an equal amount of voters.
Posted Mar 29, 2010 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger
It does not appear that President Obama has received more than a slight improvement in his approval numbers, a week after in historic victory in congress. Last Sunday, Obama's three-day rolling average reported a 46% approval and 48% disapproval rating. As of this Sunday evening, the numbers are reversed 48.0% approve to 46.5% disapprove--an aggregate +3.5% improvement in his overall performance numbers. The two daily tracking polls--Rasmussen and Gallup--show no movement at all (with a slight decline in the latter survey). The president's numbers in the coming weeks will give us a clearer picture of the effect, if any, of his historic victory on his approval rating.
Posted Mar 22, 2010 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday evening, President Obama's approval and disapproval numbers are tied--at 47%--according to PollTrack's weekly average.
Posted Mar 19, 2010 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger
For the first time, Gallup reports that President Obama's disapproval rating is higher than his approval number. As of Thursday afternoon, Obama's three-day rolling average was 46% approve, 48% disapprove of his job performance as president.
Posted Mar 15, 2010 at 2:23 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval rating has stabilized this week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 48.6%. His disapproval number, however, continues to remain fairly high at 47.6%.
Posted Mar 09, 2010 at 1:07 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Gallup survey reveals that "Americans remain more confident in the healthcare reform recommendations of President Obama (49%) than in the recommendations of the Democratic (37%) or Republican (32%) leaders in Congress. But these confidence levels are lower than those measured in June, suggesting that the ongoing healthcare reform debate has taken a toll on the credibility of the politicians involved."
Posted Mar 08, 2010 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval rating stabilized this week, improving considerably from last week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 49.3%. His disapproval number remains fairly high, however, and now stands at 47.3%.
Posted Mar 02, 2010 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger
In a series sign of weakness for the Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections, Tom Jensen reports that President Obama at present "has a negative approval rating in every state he flipped from the Bush column to his in 2008. In each of those places his level of support is now in the 44-46% range. It's probably a good thing he doesn't have to run for reelection this year. He can only hope things start turning around for him once the midterms are in the rear view mirror, much as they did for Bill Clinton."
Posted Mar 01, 2010 at 1:10 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval rating dropped noticeably this week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 46.6%. Even more alarming for the president is the sharp rise of his disapproval number, now higher than his approval score at 48%.
Posted Feb 25, 2010 at 1:22 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup survey, "Americans are skeptical that lawmakers will agree on a new healthcare bill at Thursday's bipartisan healthcare summit in Washington, D.C. If an agreement is not reached, Americans by a 49% to 42% margin oppose rather than favor Congress passing a healthcare bill similar to the one proposed by President Obama and Democrats in the House and Senate. By a larger 52% to 39% margin, Americans also oppose the Democrats in the Senate using a reconciliation procedure to avoid a possible Republican filibuster and pass a bill by a simple majority vote."
Posted Feb 22, 2010 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's overall approval/disapproval rating declined this week, his disapproval number rising considerably from last week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 47.5%. His disapproval number is now at 47.3%, almost equal to his positive number.
Posted Feb 17, 2010 at 2:12 AM by Maurice Berger
In numbers that cannot be reassurinf to President Obama, 52% of Americans in a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Tuesday said that he does not deserve reelection in 2012. "44% of all Americans said they would vote to reelect the president in two and a half years, less than the slight majority who said they would prefer to elect someone else. Obama faces a 44-52 deficit among both all Americans and registered voters . . . . Four percent had no opinion."
Posted Feb 16, 2010 at 2:27 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval rating stabilized this week, improving considerably from last week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 48.7%. His disapproval number has dropped considerably, as well, and now stands at 44%.
Posted Feb 07, 2010 at 5:09 PM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval rating has taken a serious dive this week, suggesting that his modest State of the Union bounce was very short lived. His aggregate approval rating nows stands at 46.3%. Even more alarming for the president is the sharp rise of his disapproval number, now at an all-time high of 49%.
Posted Feb 05, 2010 at 5:47 AM by Maurice Berger
The public often forms opinion based on the overall contours of an issue--rather than inside-the beltway details--an observation that seems particularly true of its reaction to health care reform. A Pew Research poll reveals that just 32% of Americans know the health care reform bill received no support from Republican Senators; just 26% know that 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster in the Senate. And, as other polls have confirmed, even fewer understand the basic provisions of a bill that is both cumbersome and has remained mostly unexplained to the American public.
Posted Feb 03, 2010 at 1:41 AM by Maurice Berger
A week of relatively positive press following the President's State of the union address has helped his approval rating, according to Gallup: "President Barack Obama's job approval rating has jumped up to 51% in the most recent three-day Gallup Daily tracking. This follows 11 straight days of Gallup reporting in which Obama's approval rating was below the 50% mark. Here is Gallup's chart posted on Monday:
Posted Feb 02, 2010 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Nielsen Wire, President Obama's first State of the Union address was viewed by more than 48 million viewers -- down 7% from President Bush's first official address in 2002.
Posted Feb 01, 2010 at 1:11 AM by Maurice Berger
The President Obama's State of the Union address appears to have given him a slight lift in approval numbers this week: His approval number has risen this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 49.0%. Also of note: the president's disapproval has now fallen below his approval number to 47.8%. It will be interesting to see if the increase in approval will be sustained over the next few weeks.
Posted Jan 29, 2010 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger
In polling leading up to Wednesday's state of the union address, President Obama's disapproval rating is showing signs of eclipsing his approval rating (a problem demonstrated by Monday's weekly PollTrack rating). In two polls, Obama's disapproval is higher (Rasmussen, CNN Opinion Research) in two others, the numbers are more or less even (NPR and Gallup). Stay tuned. Monday's average may gives us a sense if Wednesday's national address has approved the president's standing.
Posted Jan 26, 2010 at 1:47 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Public Policy Polling survey President Obama, for the first time, "trails one of his hypothetical opponents," for reelection, "albeit by the smallest of margins." Mike Huckabee edges Obama, 45% to 44%, but leads Mitt Romney (44% to 42%) and Sarah Palin (49% to 41%).
Posted Jan 25, 2010 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger
After several weeks of bad news--including the Democrat's devastating loss in Massachusetts--President Obama's approval number has fallen this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 47.0%. Extremely alarming for the president: the president's disapproval has crept up WELL above his approval number, now at an alarming 50.5%.
Posted Jan 22, 2010 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger
Republican pollster Frank Luntz fires a warning shot to Democrats in his analysis of the president's declining popularity. While his overall opinion of--and some of his ideas about--the seriousness of the dilemma now facing Democrats may be colored by ideology, two of his points about looming red flags are backed up by the results of a number of non-partisan public opinion surveys:
• According to Gallup, Obama has suffered the greatest fall in approval of any elected president since the company started ongoing tracking during the Eisenhower administration. Obama came into office with the approval of two out of every three voters (67 percent) but ended his first year with just half the electorate (50 percent) offering a positive evaluation of his performance. Only the unelected Gerald Ford fared worse in the court of public opinion.
• While the Republican brand has barely moved since its electoral disasters of 2006 and 2008 and remains unpopular, Democratic popularity has collapsed as well. Most surveys now have the GOP even or even slightly ahead in the generic congressional ballot, and Americans now see the Republicans to be as good if not better in handling the economy.
What Luntz fails to point out, however, is that the Republican brand is suffering as well: A new Public Policy Polling poll reports that only 19% of voters nationally are happy with the direction of the Republican Party, compared to 56% who are unhappy with it. Even more surprising--GOP voters are not particularly happy with the direction of their own party: just 35% support the direction of the party; 38% say they are unhappy.
Posted Jan 21, 2010 at 1:09 AM by Maurice Berger
Was the Obama administration's emphasis on health care over jobs "a colossal miscalculation" of public sentiment and needs. Charlie Cook, in this interesting and compelling analysis, tied the drop in support for the administration to its year-long health care campaign, undertaken during a period when jobs were withering away and the unemployment rates was rising to crisis proportions: "Honorable and intelligent people can disagree over the substance and details of what President Obama and congressional Democrats are trying to do on health care reform and climate change. But nearly a year after Obama's inauguration, judging by where the Democrats stand today, it's clear that they have made a colossal miscalculation. The latest unemployment and housing numbers underscore the folly of their decision to pay so much attention to health care and climate change instead of focusing on the economy "like a laser beam," as President Clinton pledged to do during his 1992 campaign. Although no one can fairly accuse Obama and his party's leaders of ignoring the economy, they certainly haven't focused on it like a laser beam." For the entire analysis, click here.
Posted Jan 20, 2010 at 1:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll confirms what last night's returns from Massachusetts infer: health care reform is not popular. In the survey, only 33% of Americans say President Obama's reform effort is a good idea; 46% consider it a mistake.
Posted Jan 18, 2010 at 1:58 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval numbers are up this week. PollTrack's average as of Sunday night: 49.2% APPROVE to 45.3% DISAPPROVE. Also of note, the President's disapproval number has dropped considerably from last week: His approval rating is now +4% higher than his disapproval number.
Posted Jan 12, 2010 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
In a bit of good news for the Obama administration, a new Rasmussen survey, reports that "51% of voters
nationwide continue to believe that the economic woes can still be blamed on
Administration of George W. Bush . . . [the] survey
finds that just 41% hold the opposite view and believe the policies of Barack
Obama are to blame."
Posted Jan 11, 2010 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval number has dropped by a point this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 47.5%. The president's disapproval number is now higher than his approval, a possibly alarming development for the administration. The president's disapproval number has also crept up from last week to 48.5%.
Posted Jan 08, 2010 at 2:20 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack suggests taking a look at this informative New York Times round table on the upcoming midterm elections. While certain political signs point to possibly significant Democratic loses (presidential job approval below 50%, shrinking Democratic partisan identification, a GOP lead on the Congressional Generic ballot), it is still too early to tell. An improved economy--and an uptick in job creation--could well benefit the Democrats (ten months is a relatively long time in the politics of the Internet age). Or continued stagnation may well add seats to the GOP column. Will shrinking Democratic turnout--relative to last year's wave of enthusiasm for candidate Obama--ultimately hurt the party in power or will Democrats, still weary from 8-years of George W. Bush, turn out in sufficient numbers to keep things stable? Click here for the complete NYT round table.
Posted Jan 07, 2010 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger
Gallup notes that President Obama begins his second year as president with 50% of Americans approving and 44% disapproving of his overall job performance: "This is well below the 68% approval rating Obama received in his first few days as president, and matches his average for all of December -- which included many days when public support for him fell slightly below that important symbolic threshold. . . . Obama's initial approval rating in his second year as president is among the lowest for elected presidents since Dwight Eisenhower. Only Ronald Reagan -- who, like Obama, took office during challenging economic times -- began his second year in office with a lower approval score (49%). However, Obama's disapproval rating is slightly higher than Reagan's was (44% vs. 40%)." Of course, as PollTrack notes, Reagan went on to become one of the most popular US presidents in the 20th-Century. So at this early stage, it's hard to tell if these numbers are in any way significant.
Posted Jan 05, 2010 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by USA TODAY/Gallup finds that President Obama is the man Americans admired most in 2009, and finds Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin are virtually tied as the most-admired woman.The close finish by Clinton, named by 16% in the open-ended survey, and Palin, named by 15%, reflects the nation's partisan divide. Clinton was cited by nearly 3 in 10 Democrats but only 6% of Republicans, Palin by a third of Republicans but less than 1% of Democrats. Obama dominates the field among men at 30%, though his support also shows a partisan split. He was named by more than half of Democrats but just 7% of Republicans.
Posted Jan 04, 2010 at 2:07 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval number remains stable this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating remains the same as last week: APPROVE: 48.5%. The president's approval number remains higher than his disapproval. The bad news: his disapproval number has crept up from last week to 47.5%. PollTrack also notes that this week's average may be skewed by the Christmas and New Year holiday season--polling is irregular and sporadic during this time--and daily trackers that take a second break through this coming Monday.
Posted Dec 28, 2009 at 2:49 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval number has fallen slightly this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 48.5%. The president's approval number remains higher than his disapproval. The bad news: his disapproval number has crept up from last week to 46.8%. PollTrack also notes that this week's average may be skewed by the Christmas holiday--voters distracted by family, celebration, and year-end exhaustion--and daily trackers that take a break through this coming Monday.
Posted Dec 22, 2009 at 1:12 AM by Maurice Berger
A Pew Research Center survey offers a breakdown of Obama's approval status by race, age, gender, and political affiliation. At years end, it offers a snapshop of where the President stands with various groups. Fully 88% of non-Hispanic African Americans approve of Obama’s job performance, compared with 39% of non-Hispanic whites. Obama continues to draw broad support from his Democratic base: comparable percentages of liberal Democrats (85%) and conservative and moderate Democrats (82%) approve of the way he is handling his job. By contrast, Republicans overwhelmingly disapprove (19% approve vs. 73% disapprove); among conservative Republicans just 12% approve of Obama’s job performance while 82% disapprove.
Posted Dec 21, 2009 at 1:23 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval number has risen slightly this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 49.7%. The good news for the president: his approval number is now higher than his disapproval. The bad news: his disapproval number has crept up slightly from last week to 46%.
Posted Dec 15, 2009 at 1:38 AM by Maurice Berger
Per MSNBC First Read: "A new CNBC poll . . . has Obama’s economic approval rating at 46%, the Democratic Party’s at 39%, and the GOP’s at 26%. Also in the poll, a plurality (43%) believes the economy will improve in the course of the next year. And the survey shows a lack in confidence in American institutions: 77% say they have confidence in the military, compared with 39% for the Supreme Court, 24% for the Fed, 19% for the Treasury Department, 18% for FEMA, 17% for health insurance companies, 15% for Congress, and 10% for the financial industry. Ouch. Here’s one more thing: By a 54%-33% margin, Americans say they prefer using the leftover TARP money for deficit reduction rather than for more stimulus spending."
Posted Dec 14, 2009 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger
The downward slide in President Obama's approval numbers appears to have abated, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 48.6%, DISAPPROVE: 45.5%. The good news for the president: his approval number is now higher than his disapproval. The bad news, per Tom Bevan: six of the seven major national surveys released this week recorded an all-time low job approval rating for Obama.
Posted Dec 07, 2009 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger
For several months, Rasmussen Reports has shown a disapproval number that has been consistently higher than President's Obama's approval rating. Their number, based on a fairly conservative likely voter model, has stood alone. Now a second polling organization, for the first time, reports a similar result: According to a CNN/Opinion Research national survey released Friday, 48% of Americans approve of the job Obama's doing as president, with 50 percent disapproving. The 48% approval is a 7 point drop in approval from last month. "The poll indicates that the biggest drop in approval comes from non college educated white voters," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "That's one indication among many that Obama's growing unpopularity may be more related to unemployment and the poor economy."
PollTrack's own poll average, as of Sunday evening, indicates that the president disapproval rating is higher than his approval number: Approve: 48% Disapprove: 48.6%.
Posted Dec 02, 2009 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger
Will the president's sagging approval numbers start moving up soon? Jacob Weisberg, writing in Slate, suggests that the answer may be yes: "About one thing, left and right seem to agree these days: Obama hasn't done anything yet. . . . This conventional wisdom about Obama's first year isn't just premature—it's sure to be flipped on its head by the anniversary of his inauguration on Jan. 20. If, as seems increasingly likely, Obama wins passage of a health care reform a bill by that date, he will deliver his first State of the Union address having accomplished more than any other postwar American president at a comparable point in his presidency. This isn't an ideological point or one that depends on agreement with his policies. It's a neutral assessment of his emerging record—how many big, transformational things Obama is likely to have made happen in his first 12 months in office."
Posted Dec 01, 2009 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that Americans are ambivalent, at best, about the state of the economy. The poll ""reveals a more pessimistic electorate than we have seen since the early months of 2009, with feelings on the economy turning more negative after months of slight but steady improvement." Who is benefitting from this doubt, Democrats or Republicans? Hard to tell according to PPP: "The country is not ready to listen to a narrative about how Democrats have brought the economy 'back from the brink' and averted an even worse disaster, as articulated by the president in his joint session address to Congress earlier this year. That leaves a lot of receptivity to Republican messages that focus on wasted spending and exploding deficits." Yet, half of the voters in swing (but Republican-leaning) districts continue to "believe that President Obama’s economic recovery plan could help," a number that suggests the economy could still break in favor of Democrats.
Posted Nov 30, 2009 at 12:50 AM by Maurice Berger
For a second straight week, President Obama's positive and negative numbers in the PollTrack average are nearly equal. And his positive approval rating remains below the 50% mark (though it's up a point from last week). As of Sunday evening, 48.5% of voters approve of the way President Obama is handling his job; 47.5%, disapprove.
Posted Nov 24, 2009 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger
A Quinnipiac poll finds that when it comes to the war in Afghanistan, GOP support for the war in Afghanistan is more than twice as strong as that of Democrats. On the question of whether the President 40,000 more combat troops to Afghanistan as per the wishes of US military commanders on the ground, voters, by a 47% to 42% margin, support the addition of more troops. Yet, only 27% of Democrats want more troops, compared to 68% of Republicans.
Posted Nov 23, 2009 at 2:04 AM by Maurice Berger
Presidential approval ratings ebb and flow. At any given point a low--or high--rate of approval may reflect little about a president's overall approval over time. At this point in their tenure both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were hovering in the low to mid-40s (both ended their presidencies with relatively high approval numbers). Still, this week's numbers suggest that our current president has moved well past his honeymoon with voters: for the first time, his positive and negative numbers in the PollTrack average are equal. And his positive approval rating has dropped well below 50%. As of Sunday evening, 47.3% of voters approve of the way President Obama is handling his job; 47.3%, disapprove.
Posted Nov 20, 2009 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a Quinnipiac University survey, Americans like President Obama more than his policies: "Three-quarters of American voters--74%--like President Barack Obama as a person, but only 47% like most of his policies, and voters disapprove 51 - 35 percent of the health care overhaul passed by the House of Representatives which he has endorsed. . . . Given four choices to describe their feelings about the President, American voters say:
- 46 percent like Obama as a person and like most of his policies;
- 28 percent like him as a person, but don't like most of his policies;
- 1 percent like his policies, but don't like him as a person;
- 20 percent don't like him or his policies.
'Most Americans like
President Barack Obama and might like to have a beer with him,' said Peter
Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. 'But
millions of voters who sided with him last November because they thought he
would bring change to Washington aren't crazy about the kind of change he is
trying to bring.'"
Posted Nov 17, 2009 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger
Veteran analyst Stu Rothenberg, analyzing the rest of the 2009 off-year races, argues that the Democratic brand may be in trouble in the 2010 midterm elections: "Now it will be the GOP who can push the “culture of corruption” argument that Democrats used so successfully in the recent past. Now Republicans will complain about high unemployment numbers, about causalities in Afghanistan and the administration’s foreign policy and about the government’s inability to get H1N1 flu shots to the American public. Moreover, as we are already seeing with health care reform, the internal contradictions of the Democratic Party are becoming apparent. For the past year, the national media have been focused on internal Republican divisions. But now, a fracturing in the Democratic ranks is likely to give plenty of fodder for journalists, columnists and talking heads. This is likely to further erode Democratic poll numbers."
Rothenberg also points out that such shifts in voter sentiment, away from the party principally in power, are fairly common in midterm cycles: "There is nothing unnatural about this, of course. It’s the inevitable result of a party gaining more than 50 seats over the past four years, including in districts that are conservative and lean Republican. And it always happens when one party controls both chambers of Congress and the White House."
Posted Nov 16, 2009 at 2:07 AM by Maurice Berger
Obama's overall approval rating has risen in the last week. According to PollTrack's average, the president's positive rating outpaces his negative--52.0% to 41.75%.
Posted Nov 13, 2009 at 1:12 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup, Americans are uncertain about the health care proposals winding their way through congress: "Americans are evenly split on the potential impact of new health care legislation, should it ultimately be passed into law. Forty-one percent say a new health care bill would make the U.S. health care system better in the long run, while 40% say it would make things worse . . . Americans are more negative about the impact of a new health care bill on their personal situations than they are about its impact on the nation as a whole. By a 10-point margin, Americans are more likely to say a new bill would make their personal health care situations worse (36%), rather than better (26%). Almost 4 out of 10 say a bill would make no difference, or have no opinion on the topic."
Posted Nov 12, 2009 at 1:10 AM by Maurice Berger
With Barack Obama's historic election in November 2008, a hefty majority of Americans expected race relations to improve in the United States. A year later, "the high hopes Americans had for race relations . . . have yet to be fully realized," according to a new Gallup survey. "Currently, 41% of Americans believe race relations have gotten better since Obama's win; another 35% think they have not changed, while 22% say they have gotten worse. Last November, 70% thought race relations would improve as a result of the landmark outcome."
Posted Nov 10, 2009 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger
One thing PollTrack will be monitoring very closely over the next few months is the relationship between the president's approval rating and the success or failure of the health care legislation currently working its way through congress. At the moment, high unemployment numbers and the looming deficit has taken their toll on independent voters--their loss from the Democratic fold representing the single most important factor in the party's losses in Virginia and New Jersey last week. Will the success of health care legislation--such as last Saturday's victory in the house--help to offset dissatisfaction among independent voters? The answer may well spell a continued Democratic majority next November or Republican gains. Stay tuned for analysis of this issue relative to the president's overall standing with voters.
Posted Nov 09, 2009 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday evening, PollTrack reports a slight increase in President Obama's aggregate approval rating. 51.8% now have a positive view of the president's performance; 45.0% a negative one. Obama's negative rating, which has slowly increased each week over the past few months, continues to represent a trouble spot for the president.
Posted Nov 05, 2009 at 12:26 AM by Maurice Berger
Another problem for the Democrats in Tuesday's election: parts of the Obama coalition--responsible for his easy victory last year--did not hold. As MSNBC notes: "Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go . . . According to the exit polls, just 10% of the voters in Virginia were under the age of 30, down from 21% last year. What’s more, McDonnell won 18-29 year olds, 54%-44%. Also in Virginia yesterday, African Americans made up 16% of the vote, down from 20% last year. And then there’s this: 51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin."
Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday evening, President Obama's aggregate approval rating has decreased a full percentage point from last week's aggregate number, according to PollTrack's latest calculation: Approve: 50.5% to Disapprove: 43.2%.
Posted Oct 26, 2009 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday evening, President Obama's aggregate approval rating has increased somewhat over last's week's 50.3% aggregate number, according to PollTrack's latest calculation: Approve: 51.5% to Disapprove: 44.5%. Once again, the President's approval number, but now elevated disapproval rating suggests the possibility of trouble ahead for the administration.
Posted Oct 23, 2009 at 2:49 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Public Policy Polling analysis, "Barack Obama continues
to lead his most likely 2012 rivals in hypothetical contests for
reelection. Obama leads Mike Huckabee 47-43, Mitt Romney 48-40, Sarah Palin 52-40, and Tim Pawlenty 50-30.
This is the seventh time PPP has conducted this poll and the seventh time Huckabee has polled closest to Obama. Speaking to the weakness of the field of potential Republican candidates he's the only with a positive favorability rating and even then it's only 33/29. Huckabee's doing well because he connects better than the other GOP hopefuls with voters in the Midwest and South. For instance while Romney, Palin, and Pawlenty trail by 9, 17, and 18 points respectively in the Midwest Huckabee is down by just 3, something that could be a good omen for his prospects of again winning the Iowa primary as he did in 2008."
Posted Oct 22, 2009 at 2:44 AM by Maurice Berger
"In Gallup Daily tracking that spans Barack Obama's third quarter in office (July 20 through Oct. 19), the president averaged a 53% job approval rating. That is down sharply from his prior quarterly averages, which were both above 60%. In fact, the 9-point drop in the most recent quarter is the largest Gallup has ever measured for an elected president between the second and third quarters of his term, dating back to 1953. One president who was not elected to his first term -- Harry Truman -- had a 13-point drop between his second and third quarters in office in 1945 and 1946." Here is Gallup's Chart:
Posted Oct 20, 2009 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll, "support for a government-run health-care plan to compete with private insurers has rebounded from its summertime lows and wins clear majority support from the public. . . On the issue that has been perhaps the most pronounced flash point in the national debate, 57 percent of all Americans now favor a public insurance option, while 40 percent oppose it. Support has risen since mid-August, when a bare majority, 52 percent, said they favored it. . . .If a public plan were run by the states and available only to those who lack affordable private options, support for it jumps to 76 percent. Under those circumstances, even a majority of Republicans, 56 percent, would be in favor of it, about double their level of support without such a limitation."
Posted Oct 19, 2009 at 2:06 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday evening, President Obama's aggregate approval rating has dropped slightly, according to PollTrack's latest calculation: Approve: 50.3% to Disapprove: 45%. What may be more telling about these numbers is not the President's approval number, but his consistently rising disapproval rating, now at an all time high since he took office.
Posted Oct 14, 2009 at 1:49 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted Oct 08, 2009 at 3:01 AM by Maurice Berger
Last weeks polling from Rasmussen Reports on the subject of health care reform suggests a mixed bag for proponents and opponents of the plan now before congress: "Sometimes, as the old saying goes, the devil's in the details.Most U.S. voters (54%) believe that major changes are needed in the U.S. health care system. Sixty-one percent (61%) say it's important for Congress to pass health care legislation this year. The problem is that just 41% of voters nationwide now favor the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats." For more of Rasmussen's analysis, click here.
Posted Oct 06, 2009 at 2:56 AM by Maurice Berger
Tracking the relative support of the president in the month of September, Gallup reports that 64% of U.S. Jews approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, significantly higher than the 52% average among national adults in September, and also higher than was seen among Catholics, Protestants, and Mormons. Only nonreligious Americans equal Jews in their support for the president. Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Oct 05, 2009 at 2:05 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday evening, PollTrack reports a slight drop in President Obama's aggregate approval rating. 50.6% now have a positive view of the president's performance; 44.3% a negative one. Obama's negative rating represents a significant increase from last Sunday's number.
Posted Sep 28, 2009 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday evening, PollTrack reports a slight uptick in President Obama's aggregate approval rating. 51.5% now have a positive view of the president's performance; 41.5% a negative one.
Posted Sep 25, 2009 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger
One statistic in a new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that there is now a massive racial divide in the way Americans view President Barack Obama: "50% of whites disapprove of Obama’s performance compared to 45% approving but his overall numbers are solid thank to an 89% rating with African Americans and a 64% one with Hispanics." Given Obama's inability in Election 2008 to garner more than 43.5% of the white vote (to McCain's 57%)--statistically equal to his present-day performance with this demographic--PollTrack suggests that this number should not be surprising. The problem for Obama, however, is the steady decline of support among white voters during his tenture as president relative to voters of color, who continue to enthusiastically support him.
Posted Sep 24, 2009 at 1:23 AM by Maurice Berger
It appears that President Obama's speech to a joint session of Congress and his media blitz this past weekend have had littlr effect on his overall approval ratings. Indeed, as of Wednesday evening, his number have dropped back to early September levels. His positive rating now hovers at the 50% mark: 50.6% to 43.6% disapproval.
Posted Sep 21, 2009 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday evening, PollTrack's President Obama's average presidential approval rating holds steady at 52.4%. His negative number is 41%.
Posted Sep 18, 2009 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger
To a considerable degree, Americans remain uncertain about the scope and cost of health care proposals now being considered by Congress, according to a new Gallup poll: "Americans are skeptical that President Obama's health care plan will be able to accomplish all he intends -- to expand coverage to nearly all Americans without raising taxes on middle-class Americans or affecting the quality of care. 38% believe his plan will achieve all of these goals, while 60% do not think it will. Republicans are nearly united in thinking the plan will not accomplish these stated goals (90% believe it will not), and most independents (64%) agree. Two in three Democrats (66%), on the other hand, express optimism that the plan will achieve these aims . . . Less than a majority [of all polled, 43%] say they are confident that Obama's plan can be paid for mostly through cost savings in Medicare and other parts of the healthcare system, as Obama has proposed. 11% are very confident of this."
Significantly, the survey concludes that "Although the public stops short of saying reform will make these things worse -- given that about one in five expect the reforms not to make a difference either way -- in three of the four areas, more predict health care legislation would make the situation worse rather than better. These are key considerations given that support for a healthcare plan -- currently 50%, including "soft" support -- could drop considerably if Americans were convinced that reform would have a harmful effect on the middle class through higher taxes, higher costs for health care, or reduced coverage or quality of care."
Posted Sep 16, 2009 at 1:18 AM by Maurice Berger
Analyzing a just released national poll from ABC News/Washington Post, CQ Politics spots an ominous sign for the GOP: Americans perceive the party as obstructionist. CQ writes: "Republicans are viewed as obstructionists who are not making a good faith effort to cooperate with Democrats in the health care debate, according to [the survey]. The same poll found that half the respondents thought Democrats were making an honest effort to cooperate with Republicans on health care. Sixty-two percent of the respondents said the Republicans were not negotiating in good faith. But if there is any political blow back from this, it's hard to find. People were evenly divided on whether they would vote for (22 percent) or against (23 percent) a congressional candidate who supports the Democrats' health overhaul plan, with 54 percent saying it would make no difference to them. Forty-nine percent said they think the two parties are equally to blame for the tone of the debate."
Posted Sep 15, 2009 at 1:07 AM by Maurice Berger
Following the media firestorm surrounding GOP SC Rep. Joe Wilson's during President Obama's speech to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds that the congressman "went from being pretty safe for re-election to one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the country." Democrat Rob Miller holds a one point lead over Wilson, 44% to 43%, in a survey conducted Thursday night and Friday morning. PPP also reports that "a majority of voters, 62%, in SC-2 disapprove of Wilson's outburst while just 29% were not bothered by it."
Posted Sep 14, 2009 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday evening, with all tracking poll data gather AFTER President Obama's speech to the nation on health care on Wednesday, his PollTrack aggregate approval number holds stead at 51.3%. His negative rating--45.6%--still remains high relative to his numbers earlier in his presidency. So far, it appears that his speech has had only a modest effect on his standing with voters.
Posted Sep 11, 2009 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger
A recent suggests that Americans, by a wide margin, believe the media pays too much attention to the President's personal life. 60% believe there is too much media coverage of his personal life and family: "Just 6% of adults say there is not enough coverage of the president’s private life and family, and 28% think the coverage is about right. 66% of men say there is too much coverage of the Obama family, compared to 55% of women. Married adults by 13 points over unmarrieds agree. Perhaps not surprisingly, 75% of Republicans – along with 63% of adults not affiliated with either major political party – think the media over-covers the president’s personal life and family. Democrats, on the other hand, are evenly divided between thinking there is too much coverage and about the right amount."
Posted Sep 10, 2009 at 12:19 AM by Maurice Berger
The Washington Post wonders whether Colorado, a new and potent bellwether of national partisan support, is slipping away from the Democrats: "In 2008, Colorado became a symbol of the changing politics in a region once firmly in Republican hands -- and also of the grass-roots power and energy fueling Barack Obama's candidacy. Today, the state embodies the uneasiness spreading throughout Democratic ranks as Obama struggles with major challenges and the 2010 midterm elections approach."
Colorado has been one of the Democratic Party's major success stories. Between 1968 and 2004, Republican presidential candidates carried the state in all but one election. Last year, Obama crushed John McCain in Colorado, part of a broader shift in the balance of political power in the Rocky Mountain West. Obama's victory and earlier Democratic wins here have transformed the state. Early in the decade, Republicans controlled virtually everything -- the governor's office, almost all other statewide offices, the congressional delegation and both houses of the Colorado legislature. Today, Democrats are in control of all of those. A year ago, Denver enthusiastically hosted the Democratic National Convention, which culminated with Obama's acceptance speech before more than 80,000 people at the Denver Broncos' football stadium. Legions of volunteers, young and old, fanned out across the state throughout the fall to rally the vote for Obama's campaign."
"Today, the energy that powered Obama to victory has begun to dissipate. Some of his supporters remain on the sidelines; others are, if not disillusioned, questioning what has happened to his presidency. As they look toward 2010, Democrats are nervous. Gov. Bill Ritter, appointed Sen. Michael F. Bennet and at least one Democratic member of the House will probably face difficult election campaigns next year."
Posted Sep 09, 2009 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup survey, "the American people are no less divided on healthcare reform today than they were a month ago. [The survey] finds 39% of Americans saying they would direct their member of Congress to vote against a healthcare reform bill this fall while 37% want their member to vote in favor. . . .[The poll] suggests the issue could be politically potent in 2010. Sixty-four percent of Americans say their representative's position on healthcare reform will be a major factor in their vote in the next congressional election; just over a third say it will be no more than a minor factor." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Sep 07, 2009 at 1:23 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a Rasmussen Reports poll, nearly half of likely voters think the health care overhaul proposed by President Obama and backed by Democrats in Congress will become law this year. Yet, about half of likely voters don't like the plan. Around 50% said that they believed the overhaul would lower the quality of health care, and in answer to a separate question 52% said it would make health costs rise.
Posted Sep 05, 2009 at 4:35 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval numbers have improved considerably over last week, according to PollTrack's latest analysis of polling data. Last week, his support dropped below the 50% mark in PollTrack's aggregate of public opinion polls, the first time in his young presidency. As of Friday evening, Obama's approval jumped +4.5 points, to 53%, with 41.3% disapproving.
Posted Sep 03, 2009 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger
With an unemployment rate now hovering around 30%--28.9% to be exact--the city of Detroit serves as a national symbol of the continued effects of the Great Recession and a lingering problem for the Obama administration and Congress. As ABC News reports: "The unemployment rate in the city of Detroit rose to 28.9 percent in July, the highest rate of unemployment since Michigan started keeping modern numbers." Will unemployment rates that remain stagnant or even continue to climb put an damper on the public's perceptions about economic recovery? Stay tuned.
Posted Sep 02, 2009 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger
With Republicans and Democrats sharply divided, the balance of political power often falls into the hands of voters who remain independent of either party. Without their support it is virtually impossible to win national elections or maintain strong approval rating. In what might be the most ominous sign of eroding political support in Obama's still young presidency, a new CNN/Opinion Research survey reports that "a majority of independent voters disapprove of how Barack Obama's handling his job as president . . . 53% of independents questioned [in the poll] released Tuesday say they disapprove of how Obama's handling his duties in the White House, with 43% in approval. That result marks the first time in a CNN poll that a majority of independents give the president's performance a thumbs-down."
Posted Aug 31, 2009 at 1:00 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Sunday night, President Obama's approval rating has dropped to 48.5% (to 47.0% negative), the lowest numbers of his young presidency. Rasmussen has Obama's approval number at 47% (among "likely voters"); Gallup has it at 50%. PollTrack will be watching these numbers carefully, especially noting whether they increase after the President returns from vacation (a news down-time that may adversely effect his popularity). Last week, the Gallup organization warned that President Obama's approval rating could wind up representing one of the fastest declines in presidential approval since World War II.
Posted Aug 19, 2009 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger
In an alarming sign for a the new administration, Barack Obama's PollTrack approval rating average has dropped to a new low. As of Monday evening, the President's approval rating hovers around the 50% mark--51.2% to 43% disapproval.
Posted Aug 14, 2009 at 2:35 AM by Maurice Berger
The question of Obama's American birth may not be a fringe issue after all. A public Policy Polling survey of voters in North Carolina finds that "only 54% of North Carolina voters say with certainty that they believe Barack Obama was born in the United States, with 26% saying they think he was not, and 20% unsure. Among Republicans, 47% think Obama was not born in the United States, with 29% unsure, and just 24% stating that they think he was." The polling director concludes that so-called "Birthers" "may be a fringe movement, but at least in the south it's a pretty large fringe."
Posted Aug 13, 2009 at 2:23 AM by Maurice Berger
In a warning sign for the Obama administration, the president's standing among independent voters are slipped considerably. According to a new Marist poll: "While the Obama Administration is embroiled in a bitter battle to get a health care plan pushed through Congress, President Barack Obama is faring well, overall, in the eyes of a majority of voters. However, the president’s job performance may have lost a bit of its luster for members of one key voting group for the first time since taking office. 55% of U.S. registered voters approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in office while 35% say they disapprove. The president has held his own in the court of public opinion during the last few months. . . . But, is President Obama on a slippery slope with Independent voters? Currently, 47% of Independents nationwide say they approve of the job the president is doing while 37% disapprove. This is the first time Obama has lost a majority of Independents since taking office."
Posted Aug 07, 2009 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger
By an enormous margin, the American public trusts President Obama FAR more than Republicans on the issue of who better can handle revamping health care: a NYT/CBS News poll reports that by a 55% to 26% margin, Obama has better ideas on health care than Republicans. A GWU Battleground survey released late last week found Obama with a 21 point lead over Republicans on who would better handle health care reform. PollTrack suggests that with approval numbers this high on the issue, Obama still holds a big political advantage over Republican legislators heading into September's Congressional battle over the issue.
Posted Aug 06, 2009 at 2:10 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted Aug 05, 2009 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger
Despite the efforts of the so-called "birther" movement, which questions President Obama's American birth (a requisite for assuming the presidency), the vast majority of Americans believe he was born in the United States. According to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 survey, more than two-thirds of adults reject these "birther" conspiracy claims. Here's the overall result:
Do you believe that President Barack Obama was born in the USA or not:
Not sure 12
Here is the break down by political part affiliation and region:
Yes No Not sure
Dem 93 4 3
Rep 42 28 30
Ind 83 8 9
N-East 93 4 3
South 47 23 30
Midwest 90 6 4
West 87 7 6
Posted Aug 03, 2009 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger
The past week has been much better for President Obama politically than the week before. And tracking polls over the latter part of last week confirm this: By Friday afternoon, the president's approval rating ticked up to 54.1% (to 39% disapproval), a leap of more than two-points from earlier in the week. More mportant tracking polls taken exclusively in the latter part of the week show even greater improvement, with some, such as Gallup, indicating a positive rating as high as 55%. Stay tuned.
Posted Jul 31, 2009 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger
Is the Democratic brand in trouble? After years of leading the Generic Congressional Ballot--often by wide margins--the Democrats have fallen slightly behind. According to a new NPR poll, "The so-called generic ballot question was also very close. Asked whether they would support a Democrat or a Republican for Congress in 2010 if the election were held today, 42 percent said they would choose a Democrat and 43 percent a Republican, a difference well within the poll's margin of error (plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for each number in each question)."
Posted Jul 30, 2009 at 1:58 AM by Maurice Berger
As of this morning, PollTrack's aggregate approval rating for the President stood at 53.4%--40.2% disapprove of his performance--a very slight uptick from earlier in the week." Several polls are contradictory, with Rasmussen showing Obam's approval at a meager 48%, CBS News/NY Times at a much healthier 58%, a ten point difference. PollTrack will continue to monitor the President's aggregate approval rating. Obama's polling average may soon increase after several weeks of negative press coverage; it may remain stable in the low-1950s; or it may prefigure a downward trend in the public perception of his performance. In any case, PollTrack will follow the trend.
Posted Jul 29, 2009 at 2:06 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup survey, most Americans support health care legislation, but not necessarily this year: "Seven in 10 Americans favor the passage of new health care reform legislation, but less than half (41%) say a new law needs to be passed this year." The good news for the Obama administration is that a VERY solid majority of Americans favor this legislation, albeit disagreeing on the timing. Here is Gallup's Chart:
Posted Jul 28, 2009 at 2:22 AM by Maurice Berger
A recently released survey reports that "61% of voters nationwide say that cost is the biggest health care problem facing the nation today." The national telephone survey finds that "just 21% believe the lack of universal health insurance coverage is a bigger problem. Only 10% believe the quality of care is the top concern, and 2% point to the inconvenience factor of dealing with the current medical system. Given a choice between health care reform and a tax hike or no health care reform and no tax hike, 47% would prefer to avoid the tax hike and do without reform. Forty-one percent (41%) take the opposite view."
Posted Jul 27, 2009 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger
The only poll thus far on the question of how President Obama handled the issue of the arrest of Prof. Henry Louis Gates Jr indicates an enormous racial divide in the public's assessement. While an 46% of Americans rate the president’s response as poor, only 26% of voters nationwide say President Obama did a good or excellent job answering a press conference question about the incident involving a white Cambridge, Massachusetts policeman and a black Harvard professor. Yet, beneath the "top line numbers is a huge gap between the way that white and black Americans view the situation . . . 71% of African-Americans say the president’s response was good or excellent, a view shared by just 22% of white Americans. At the other extreme, 53% of white voters gave the president’s response a poor grade. 5% of black Americans offered such a negative response."
Posted Jul 24, 2009 at 1:22 AM by Maurice Berger
As of this morning, PollTrack's aggregate approval rating for the President stood at 53.6%-- 42.2% disapprove of his performance--below the threshold over which a political leader is said to be in his "honeymoon phase." Rasmussen will report later this morning an even more alarming result for Obama: for the first time more Americans disapprove than approve of his performance, with 49% affirmative, 51% negative. PollTrack will continue to monitor the President's aggregate approval rating very closely. Obama's polling average may soon recover after a week of often negative press coverage; it may remain stable in the mid-1950s; or it may prefigure a downward trend in the public perception of his performance. In any case, PollTrack will follow the trend over the next few weeks.
Posted Jul 23, 2009 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger
Despite President Obama's somewhat diminished, but still decent, approval rating in the key swing state of Minnesota, voters seem prepared to enthusiastically reelect him over incumbent Republican Governor and likely 2012 presidential candidate, Tim Pawlenty. According new a Public Policy Polling survey, "Obama's approval rating in Minnesota has dropped six points since April, but that doesn't mean voters are responding too positively to some of his Republican alternatives. 54% of voters in the state now give Obama good marks, with 39% saying they disapprove of his job performance. That's down from a 60/30 spread when PPP last polled it in April. Obama has maintained all of his popularity with Democrats but has seen a small drop in his support among independents and a significant one with Republicans. Where before 23% of voters in the opposing party thought he was doing a good job, now just 12% do. Obama nevertheless fares very well when pitted in hypothetical contest against Tim Pawlenty . . . Against Pawlenty Obama leads 51-40, a margin that would actually exceed what he won against John McCain in the state last fall."Significantly, the same poll reveals that he would beat Alaska Governor by a whopping 21-point margin if the 2012 were held today--56% to 35%--"which would be the most lopsided Presidential result in the state since Lyndon Johnson's landslide against Barry Goldwater in 1964"
Posted Jul 22, 2009 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
In yet another sign that President Obama's honeymoon stage may be ending, American support for his handling of health care reform appears to be slipping. The latest USA Today/Gallup poll reports that as "the debate over health care reform intensifies, more Americans disapprove (50%) than approve (44%) of the way U.S. President Barack Obama is handling health care policy. There is a tremendous partisan gap in these views, with 74% of Democrats but only 11% of Republicans approving. Independents are more likely to disapprove than to approve of Obama's work on health care." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Jul 21, 2009 at 2:25 AM by Maurice Berger
With some polls showing Obama's overall approval rating as high as 60% (Gallup) or as low as 52% (Rasmussen), a new Public Policy Polling survey shows an even steeper, indeed dramatic decline: The poll "finds Barack Obama’s approval rating dropping to 50%, continuing a gradual decline in his numbers over the last two months. In May Obama was at 55%. That dropped to 52% in June before today’s poll. Obama’s decline comes largely as a result of a reduction in his bipartisan support. His approval among Republicans is now 12% after being in the 18-19% range in the previous two polls. While he has maintained strong support from African Americans and Hispanics his approval has dipped to below 40% with whites. He’s also seen a pretty large shift with moderates, from 67% approval to 61%."
His long term prospects for reelection--a ridiculous thing to poll at this point, since presidents do not generally come into their own politically for several years after their election--appear rosier according to PPP: "Tested in hypothetical contests against some possible 2012 GOP opponents Obama still maintains leads similar to what he won in the popular vote against John McCain last fall. He has a nine point lead against Mitt Romney, eight point ones against Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin, and a six point one against Mike Huckabee."
Yet, another poll by Rasmussen, reports a much bleaker outlook for the President in 2012: "If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama and possible Republican nominee Mitt Romney would be all tied up at 45% each, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. The president, seeking a second four-year term, beats another potential GOP rival, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, by six points – 48% to 42%. In both match-ups, 7% like some other candidate, with 3% undecided."
Posted Jul 20, 2009 at 2:08 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted Jul 17, 2009 at 2:07 AM by Maurice Berger
Former MA Governor Mitt Romney has pulled into an early lead in the race for the 2012 GOP nomination for president. According to Gallup, "about one in four Republicans and Republican-leaning independents make Mitt Romney their top choice for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, giving him a slight edge over Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the choice of 14% of Republicans, with much smaller numbers choosing current Govs. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Haley Barbour of Mississippi.
Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Jul 16, 2009 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger
The latest Diageo/Hotline Poll of registered voters conducted from July 9-13, 2009, suggests that President Obama may be transitioning out of his honeymoon stage: the poll reports that "the percentage of American voters who approve of the job President Obama is doing has dropped nine points to 56%. The previous Diageo/ Hotline Poll, conducted from June 4-7, found that 65% of voters approved of the job he was doing. Obama’s Job Approval Ratings With 56% of voters approving of the job he is doing, the Poll finds President Obama’s job approval rating is at its lowest level recorded in the six monthly Diageo/Hotline Polls since
President Obama took office."
Posted Jul 15, 2009 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger
While President Obama's national approval rathing hovers in the upper 50% range--nowhere near the danger zone, though it has fallen significantly since his inauguration in January--the country now appears more willing to blame the Democrats for problems that only months ago were as seen as caused by Republicans. Rasmussen reports that "voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats on eight out of 10 key electoral issues, including, for the second straight month, the top issue of the economy. They've also narrowed the gap on the remaining two issues, the traditionally Democratic strong suits of health care and education. . . . [The] survey finds that voters trust theGOP more on economic issues 46% to 41%, showing little change from the six-point lead the party held last month. This is just the second time in over two years of polling the GOP has held the advantage on economic issues."
Posted Jul 10, 2009 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger
Gallup examines the so-called "honeymoon phase" of President Obama's approval numbers and wonders how long it wil last: "Presidents typically enjoy positive approval ratings during the early stages of their presidencies, commonly known as the "honeymoon" period. Barack Obama is no exception, with ratings that have generally been above 60%. But recent presidents' honeymoons have typically ended much sooner than those of their predecessors. Whereas presidents from Harry Truman through Richard Nixon spent an average of 26 months above the historical average 55% presidential job approval rating after they took office, presidents from Gerald Ford to George W. Bush spent an average of just seven months above this norm." Gallup then charts the length of the "honeymoon phase" for each President since Democrat Harry Truman:
Posted Jul 09, 2009 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Quinnipiac University poll may give President Obama reason to worry: "President Barack Obama gets a lackluster 49% to 44% approval
rating in Ohio, considered by many to be the most important swing state in a
presidential election . . . This is President Obama's lowest approval rating in any national or statewide
Quinnipiac University poll since he was inaugurated and is down from 62% to 31% in a May 6 survey. By a small 48% to
46% margin, voters disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy . . . This is down
from a 57% to 36% approval May 6. A total of 66% of Ohio voters are 'somewhat dissatisfied' or 'very dissatisfied' with the way things are going in
the state, while 33% are 'very satisfied' or 'somewhat satisfied,'
numbers that haven't changed since Obama was elected." (A new Public Policy Polling survey shows a similar drop in Obama's supports in another key 2008 swing state--Virginia--where his positive approval comes in at only 48%.)
Posted Jul 07, 2009 at 2:11 AM by Maurice Berger
While President Obama's overall approval rating appears to remain stable--hovering around the 60% mark--his support among one of the most crucial voter groups, independents, may be declining. A new Quinnipiac University poll reports that while "Obama's first five months in office have seen his job approval remain stable overall--currently at a politically healthy 57% - 33% percent--his disapproval has risen 8% - 10% points among several key demographic groups even as the national mood has improved somewhat in recent months, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Approval among independent voters is 52% - 37%, compared to 57% - 30% percent in a June 4 survey . . . The survey of more than 3,000 voters also finds that voters feel 32% - 30% that things in the nation have gotten better since President Obama was inaugurated. Independent voters say 32% - 27% that things are worse, with 40% saying things are the same. " Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, writes: "Those who liked President Obama the most from the start - African-Americans, Democrats, women - still like him by the same margins, but a chunk of voters who were undecided have decided he's not their cup of tea. Among independents, men, white Catholics, white evangelical Christians and Republicans, his numbers have fallen. He still has a ways to go before his coalition becomes politically unstable, but there are some groups and issues - especially the economy - where he needs to make sure this trend does not continue."
Posted Jun 30, 2009 at 2:05 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, President Obama's approval rating among Americans remains steady. 61% of people questioned say they approve of how Obama's handling his duties as president; 37% disapprove: "The 61% approval rating is down one point from May and down six points from February . . . The poll suggests when it comes to opinions of Obama, gender and generation gaps continue. Sixty-seven percent of women questioned in the survey approve of how Obama's handling his job as president. That number drops to 54 percent among men. Two-thirds of people under 50 years old questioned in the poll approve of the president's handling of his duties. That number drops to 54 percent among people over 50 years of age."
Posted Jun 29, 2009 at 2:09 AM by Maurice Berger
A majority of African Americans believe that race relations have not improved with the election of President Obama, according to a new CNN/Essence/Opinion Research Corporation poll: "African-Americans really like President Obama, but more and more feel that race relations have not gotten better since he took office, a new national poll found. 96% of African-Americans approve of how Obama is handling his presidency . . . During the 2008 election, 38 percent of blacks surveyed thought racial discrimination was a serious problem. In the new survey, 55 percent of blacks surveyed believed it was a serious problem, which is about the same level as it was in 2000."
Posted Jun 24, 2009 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll out from ABC News/Washington Post suggests that while President Obama continues to hold a relatively high approval rating, voters are less approving of his handling of the economy, a possible future red flag: "President Obama remains on his honeymoon -- but with a hint of clouds over the beach. They signal economic impatience. A still-impressive 65% of Americans in this new ABC News/Washington Post poll approve of Obama's job performance. But there's been a retrenchment in the expectation that his stimulus plan will improve the economy -- and, consequently, a halt in what had been steadily improving views of the nation's direction. A narrow majority, 52%, now thinks Obama's stimulus program has helped or will help the nation's economy -- down from 59% in late April. While he's vulnerable elsewhere as well, it's the economy that's his make-or-break issue -- and his advantage over the Republicans in trust to handle it, while still broad, has narrowed from a record 37 points, 61%-24%, in April, to 24 points, 55%-31%, today"
Posted Jun 23, 2009 at 12:52 AM by Maurice Berger
There is wide support for government run health insurance, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll: "Americans overwhelmingly support substantial changes to the health care system and are strongly behind one of the most contentious proposals Congress is considering, a government-run insurance plan to compete with private insurers . . . The poll found that most Americans would be willing to pay higher taxes so everyone could have health insurance and that they said the government could do a better job of holding down health-care costs than the private sector . . . The national telephone survey, which was conducted from June 12 to 16, found that 72 percent of those questioned supported a government-administered insurance plan — something like Medicare for those under 65 — that would compete for customers with private insurers. Twenty percent said they were opposed.
Posted Jun 22, 2009 at 2:53 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval rating has fallen to 58% in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from June 16-18, "a new low for Obama . . . although not dissimilar to the 59% he has received on four other occasions. 33% of Americans now disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president, just one point shy of his record-high 34% disapproval score from early June. Since Obama took office in January, his approval rating in Gallup tracking has averaged 63%, and most of his three-day ratings have registered above 60%. Approval of Obama did fall to 59% in individual readings in February, March, April, and early June; however, in each case, the rating lasted only a day before rebounding to at least 60%. The latest decline in Obama's approval score, to 58%, results from a drop in approval among political independents as well as among Republicans. Democrats remain as highly supportive of the president as ever."
Posted Jun 18, 2009 at 2:36 AM by Maurice Berger
A majority of Americans believe that President Barack Obama is tackling too many difficult political and social issues at one, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News: "Nearly four in 10 Americans, 37%, believe President Barack Obama is taking on too many issues at one time, but even more Americans, 60%, believe the president is focused and taking on so many issues because the country has so many problems." The poll also suggests that Obama's overall approval rating may be slipping, a result disputed by several other polls and confirmed by several surveys: "His job approval rating now stands at 56%, down from 61% in April. Among independents, it dropped from nearly two-to-one approval to closely divided."
Posted Jun 15, 2009 at 2:28 AM by Maurice Berger
By a significant margin, Americans support the conformation of President Obama's nominee to the US Supreme Court, Sonia Sotomayor: By a margin of 46% to 32%, they support the confirmation of Sotomayor, according to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll. Another 22% were undecided. There is a big partisan divide on the question: Republicans do not support confirmation by a 55% to 19% margin; Democrats back her 69% to 12%. Significantly, independents are largely in favor of confirmation, supporting Sotomayor 46% to 33%.
Posted Jun 10, 2009 at 1:50 AM by Maurice Berger
The brilliant political analyst Charlie Cook--taking an early look at the electoral landscape for the 2010 congressional midterm election--predicts a split decision, "with Republicans picking up a few House seats but losing a Senate seat or two. The difference is that Democrats have the larger number of vulnerable House districts, while Senate Republicans have more seats that are in serious jeopardy."
Cook on the House: "Having gained 54 House seats over the past two elections, Democrats now represent 49 districts that GOP presidential nominee John McCain won last year. By comparison, Republicans represent 34 districts that Obama won. Simple arithmetic indicates that in the absence of overwhelming hostility toward the Republican Party, the GOP ought to gain a few, maybe even a dozen or so, House seats."
Cook on the Senate: "On the Senate side, the math is a bit different and is not driven directly by the results of the past two elections. In 2010, Republicans will be defending 19 seats, only one more than Democrats will. Originally, Republicans would have had 20 seats to defend versus 15 for the Democrats, but that changed with Joe Biden's election to the vice presidency and Hillary Rodham Clinton's selection as secretary of State. Two Democratic seats that would not have been up again until 2014 and 2012, respectively, will be in 2010. Add in Arlen Specter's party switch, and next year's lineup brings almost complete parity in the parties' exposure."
Posted Jun 08, 2009 at 2:25 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Democracy Corps survey, the Republican Party continues to do poorly with American voters: "The Republican Party sports a net favorability rating of -15 points (30 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable). By comparison, the Democratic Party enjoys a relatively strong +8 rating (46 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable). The image gap between the two parties also remains near its all-time high. And in a test of the 2010 congressional vote (using the incumbents’ names), Democrats currently hold a 10-point advantage, a slight increase from their 2008 margin"
The Democratric-leaning Democracy Corps also suggests that former VP Dick Cheney's recent visability may be a factor in the GOP downturn: "With a net favorability of -20 (31 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable), the former vice president is at his lowest level of popularity since Democracy Corps first measured it in 1999. Cheney is a deeply divisive figure, popular only with the conservative base of the Republican Party but unpopular with everyone else, including independents (among whom he has net -26 favorability rating) and moderate Republicans. In fact, President Obama (+5) is more popular with moderate Republicans than Cheney (-9)."
Posted Jun 05, 2009 at 1:54 AM by Maurice Berger
The very coalition that assured and strengthened Obama's win last November is now standing strongly behind the president's nominee for the US Supreme Court, Sonia Sotomayor: Boosted by large black, Hispanic and Jewish majorities, American voters approve--55% to 25%--President Obama's nomination of Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the U.S. Supreme Court, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. Back in November, African-American support for Obama was well over 90%, Jewish support was just under 80%, and Hispanic support near the 70% mark.
Posted Jun 04, 2009 at 2:07 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Rasmussen Reports, most Americans blame George W. Bush and not President Obama for the economic crisis gripping the nation: "Obama contends he inherited the nation’s ongoing economic problems and that his actions since taking office are not to blame. 62% of U.S. voters agree with the president that the problems are due to the recession that began under the Bush administration. Just 27% of voters say the problems are being caused more by the policies Obama has put in place since taking office, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. 10% are not sure which president is more to blame . . .
. . . Not surprisingly, 88% of Democrats say it’s Bush’s fault. However, Republicans are more evenly divided. Thirty-four percent 34% of the GOP faithful say the economic problems can be traced to the Bush Administration, while 51% blame Obama’s policies. Among voters not affiliated with either party, 61% say the Bush recession is to blame versus 28% who say Obama is at fault."
Posted Jun 01, 2009 at 2:30 AM by Maurice Berger
Gallup publishes this chart, which compares the approval ratings of president's over the past sixty-years in May of their first year in office. As you can see, only three other president's have done better than Obama, though all but two came in over the 60% mark. Kennedy and Eisenhower's approvals were in the stratosphere, at 77% and 74% respectively. Reagan is third at 68%; Obama not far behind at 65%. The numbers for Lyndon Johnson are not reported (perhaps because he was not elected to his first term, having assumed office upon the dead of John Kennedy in November 1963):
Posted May 26, 2009 at 2:05 AM by Maurice Berger
If Americans approve of President Obama's handling of the terrorist interrogation issue, they're decidedly down on Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's handling of the matter. According to Gallup: "More Americans disapprove than approve of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's handling of the matter concerning the government's use of harsh interrogation techniques on terrorism suspects. Majorities approve of President Barack Obama's and the CIA's handling of the matter. Even though Obama has pledged that the United States will no longer use harsh interrogation techniques (like water boarding) that many consider to be torture, the issue has remained in the news, with some in Congress -- including Pelosi -- calling for an investigation into the use of such techniques during the Bush administration. Last week, Pelosi attempted to respond to allegations that she learned of the use of water boarding in September 2002 during a CIA briefing of congressional leaders. In her press conference, she asserted that the CIA misled her by denying that water boarding was being used, even though government reports indicate it had been used on an al Qaeda terror suspect in the month prior to that briefing. The CIA responded and disputed her assertions that the agency misled her. Republican leaders have roundly criticized her remarks."
Posted May 18, 2009 at 2:17 AM by Maurice Berger
Is President Obama more popular now than he was in his first 100-days. According to Gallup, he is having a good, strong month: "President Barack Obama appears to be slightly more popular with Americans at the start of his second 100 days in office than he was, on average, during his first 100. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 7-9 finds 66% of Americans approving of how he is handling his job, compared with an average 63% from January through April. Obama's approval rating has registered 66% or better in each Gallup three-day rolling average since May 2. His 68% approval rating reported on May 3 is tied for the second highest of his presidency, exceeded only by the 69% recorded immediately after his inauguration. And except for one 66% approval rating in late April, all of Obama's previous 66% to 68% readings were obtained near the start of his term." PollTrack suggests that it is too early to tell what any of this means in the long term. Yet, the President's numbers have remained relatively strong and consustent since the outset of his administration, a sign of the relative popularity of his presidency.
Posted May 14, 2009 at 2:10 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup poll, "despite the widely reported expectation that President Barack Obama will be looking for a qualified woman -- perhaps from a minority racial or ethnic group -- to fill the seat to be vacated by the retiring Justice David Souter, 64% of Americans say it doesn't matter to them whether Obama appoints a woman, with slightly higher percentages saying the same about the appointment of a black or Hispanic . . . Just 6% of Americans say it is "essential" that Obama appoint a woman, while another 26% say it would be "a good idea, but not essential."
Posted May 13, 2009 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger
Americans want their next Supreme Court justice to be experience and possess the highest level of legal skills, according to a new Rasmussen survey: "Forty-five percent (45%) of U.S. voters say the most important consideration in the selection of a U.S. Supreme Court justice is the nominee’s legal background and competence. For 27% of voters, making sure [the Court] represents the diversity of America is most important, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Nearly as many (23%) believe the nominee’s views on important issues should be the priority. Most Republicans (56%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (50%) stress legal skills as the most important factor in the choosing of a high court nominee. Among Democrats, however, just 34% agree. A plurality of Democrats (37%) say it is most important to make sure the court represents the nation’s diversity, while 23% say a nominee’s views are paramount."
Posted May 07, 2009 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Rasmussen survey, "just 21% of GOP voters believe Republicans in Congress have done a good job representing their own party’s values, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. 69% say congressional Republicans have lost touch with GOP voters throughout the nation. These findings are virtually unchanged from a survey just afer Election Day. Among all voters, 73% say Republicans in Congress have lost touch with the GOP base. 72% of Republicans say it is more important for the GOP to stand for what it believes in than for the party to work with President Obama. 22% want their party to work with the President more."
Posted May 05, 2009 at 11:35 PM by Maurice Berger
By a sunstantial margin, American Jews--far more than either Catholics or Protestants--are President Obama's biggest supporters. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, there is a big religious split as white Catholics approve of the President 57% to 33% while white Protestants split 44% to 42%. Jewish voters back Obama 76% to 12%. The numbers among Jewish voters closely match their sopport of the Democrat last November which hovered around 80% (78%, to be exact).
Posted May 05, 2009 at 12:45 AM by Maurice Berger
President Barack Obama's overall approval rathing--67% according to Gallup--is relatively high for a commander in chief a 100 or so days into his administration. According to Gallup, "the new president's approval rating at the 100-day mark is notable in that nearly all major demographic categories of Americans are pleased with his job performance, as evidenced by approval ratings above the majority level. Only in terms of political and ideological categories does Obama have a significant proportion of detractors; a majority of Republicans and self-described "conservatives" disapprove of his job performance. Obama's strongest backers are blacks, with 96% saying they approve of the job he is doing. However, Hispanics are nearly as supportive, with 85% approving. Approval is a much lower 57% among whites -- but still a solid majority." These are exception numbers relative to most other recent presidencies.
Posted May 04, 2009 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new poll, 42% of U.S. voters believe the president’s nominee to replace retiring US Supreme Court Justice David Souter will be too liberal: "A nearly equal number—41%-- say his choice will be about right . . . 73% of Republicans and a plurality of voters not affiliated with either major party (46%) say the president’s first high court pick will be too liberal. 65% of Democratic voters expect his choice to be about right. 40% of voters think Obama believes Supreme Court justices should decide cases on the basis of fairness and justice. 36% say the president believes justices should rule based on what’s written in the U.S. Constitution. 24% are undecided."
Posted Apr 29, 2009 at 12:57 AM by Maurice Berger
In a result that may appear somewhat counterintuitive, given the president's healthy approval rating 100 days into his administration, a new Rasmussen Poll reports that "for the first time since Obama was elected president last November, more than half of U.S. voters (53%) say it is at least somewhat likely that the next occupant of the White House will be a Republican. 31% say it is Very Likely. 35% say it is not very or not at all likely, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. 12% aren’t sure. This is not an expectation related to the 2012 election. It is a question about the President following Obama which could happen in either 2012 or 2016."
Posted Apr 24, 2009 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger
In the 2008 cycle, the state of Colorado was the ultimate swing state, a strong bellwether of other states that have remained close in recent national cycles. Where does the state stand today with regard to Barack Obama? PollTrack suggests that the answer may not be good news for the new president. According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Obama receives approval from only "49% of voters with 45% dissenting. . . . a much smaller swath of the electorate approving of [his] job performance than voted for [him] last fall, and it looks like a lot of that may have to do with [his] standing among independent voters. An average of PPP’s final three Colorado polls last year found Obama . . . doing spectacularly well among independent voters. Obama had a 24 point lead . . . But now only 48% of independents approve of what the President is doing with 47% disapproving."
Posted Apr 23, 2009 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger
In what can only be read as a testament for the relatively high regard of many for the Obama admistration, Rasmussen reports that more Americans are optmistic about the direction of the country: "For the third time this year, optimism about the country's direction has reached a recent high. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 37% of voters say the United States is heading in the right direction. Still, the majority of voters (57%) believe the nation is heading down the wrong track."
Posted Apr 22, 2009 at 1:04 AM by Maurice Berger
While diminished from his numbers in January, President Obama continues to enjoy the support of American voters. Rasmussen Reports that "35% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama performing his role as President. 29% Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of +6. The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. Obama's overall numbers according to Rasmussen--55% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance so far, 44%) disapprove--are average for a president at this early stage. PollTrack notes that an average of all of the major public opinion surveys on presidential job performance gives Obama a positive rating that hovers around 60%--a very healthy number.
Posted Apr 21, 2009 at 2:22 AM by Maurice Berger
Gallup looks at the question of Obama's popularity from another perspective: his longterm numbers. Rather than seeing his numbers as an instantaneous snaphot of public opinion, the polling organization average the President's numbers over his 100-day administration. And the numbers come out positively for the new administration: "Barack Obama's first quarter in office concludes on Sunday, and during this early stage of his presidency he has averaged a solid 63% job approval, reaching as high as 69% in the initial days of his presidency and falling as low as 59% on a few occasions. Obama's 63% first-quarter average matches the historical average of 63% for elected presidents' first quarters since 1953. However, it is the fourth highest for a newly elected president since that time, and the highest since Jimmy Carter's 69% in 1977. The historical first-quarter average includes two presidents whose scores exceeded 70% (John Kennedy's 74% and Dwight Eisenhower's 71%)."
Posted Apr 16, 2009 at 2:09 AM by Maurice Berger
The Hill argues that the razor-thin closeness of the special election in NY-20--a race that is bound to end close given the breakdown of the vote count--gives neither party an advantage in the national preception of the health of the Democratic and Republican brand: "Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele made the contest a central focus of his first two months as head of the GOP, and NRCC chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas) and Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) have each invested their own reputations on Tedisco's behalf. Without a clear win, some could lose confidence in all three leaders. Tedisco also publicly distanced himself from the national party and said he would run a local campaign without the NRCC's message, giving pundits the opportunity to recall that having an "R" after one's name, at least in the Northeast, is still political suicide."
The Hill continues: "Democrats spent less on Murphy's behalf, but by allowing both Obama and Vice President Joe Biden to get involved in the race, they ensured any result would be seen as a national referendum on the early days of the administration, when many bold economic policies dominated headlines. A loss for Murphy would certainly be viewed as a reproach of the president. With much risked and with such a close election, either Scott Murphy or Jim Tedisco will be headed to Congress. But both parties failed in their quest; Democrats did not win a sweeping victory for Obama's agenda, while Republicans -- most notably Steele -- could not prove the party is on an early course for a comeback."
Posted Apr 15, 2009 at 2:22 AM by Maurice Berger
A strong majority of Americans, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, reject former Vice-President Dick Cheney assertion that the nation is less safe under Obama's leadership: the poll "indicates Americans don't agree with former Vice President Dick Cheney's recent assertion that President Barack Obama's actions have increased the chances of a terrorist attack against the United States. [The] survey also suggests that most people support the president's plans in Afghanistan — up to a point. 72% of those questioned in the poll released Monday disagree with Cheney's view that some of Obama's actions have put the country at greater risk, with 26% agreeing with the former vice president. In a March 15 interview on CNN's "State of the Union with John King," Cheney said the Bush administration's anti-terror strategies "were absolutely essential to the success we enjoyed of being able to collect the intelligence that led us to defeat all further attempts to launch attacks against the United States since 9/11. I think that's a great success story,' Cheney said. 'President Obama campaigned against it all across the country. And now he is making some choices that, in my mind, that will in fact raise the risk to the American people of another attack.'"
Posted Apr 14, 2009 at 2:07 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup poll, Americans trust Obama more than any other political leader on the issue of the economy: "Over two-thirds of Americans -- 71% -- have a great deal or a fair amount of confidence in President Obama to do or recommend the right thing for the economy, a much higher level of confidence than is given to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, or the Democratic or Republican leaders in Congress." The poll reached the following conclusions:
Obama gets almost universal confidence from Democrats, two-thirds support from independents, and just over one-third confidence from Republicans.
Geithner appears to be somewhat more politicized than Bernanke. Geithner's confidence rating ranges from 70% among Democrats to just 24% among Republicans. Bernanke, on the other hand, has a more modest 28-point partisan gap, with a 64% confidence rating among Democrats vs. 36% among Republicans.
The partisan ratings of Bernanke have shifted from last year, when he was serving under a Republican president. At that time, the Fed chairman received a 61% confidence rating from Republicans, 43% from independents, and just a 40% rating from Democrats. Apparently, Americans associate the Fed chairman with the particular president he happens to be serving under.
Democrats have more faith in their leaders than Republicans do in theirs. Seventy-nine percent of Democrats say they have confidence in the Democratic leaders in Congress on the economy. Although this is lower than the confidence Democrats have in Obama, it is higher than the 57% confidence rating Republicans give the Republican leaders in Congress.
Posted Apr 13, 2009 at 2:21 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Rasmussen's Consumer Confidence Index, "which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, gained another three points on Sunday following a five point gain on Saturday. At 77.1, the Index has reached its highest level since last September 20.Consumer confidence is up 9 points from a week ago, 19 points from a month ago, and is even up a point-and-a-half from a year ago. which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, gained another three points on Sunday following a five point gain on Saturday. At 77.1, the Index has reached its highest level since last September 20. Consumer confidence is up 9 points from a week ago, 19 points from a month ago, and is even up a point-and-a-half from a year ago."
Posted Apr 10, 2009 at 12:57 AM by Maurice Berger
No doubt, President Obama's approval rating have come down from the loft heights of his post-inauguration honeymoon. Some polls indicate a higher approval vs disapproval rating (CNN: 66% to 30% and CBS/NY TIMES: 66% to 23%) others a more moderate approval rating (Marist: 56% to 30% and Rasmussen: 57% to 42%). While these differences add a note of ambiguity to the question of Obama's standing with voters, PollTrack suggest that a poll average of all of the accredited surveys may be a better gauge. The numbers when all is averaged out: 60.6% to 29.9%, a decent and stable result that runs about average for presidents at this early stage in their administration.
Posted Apr 09, 2009 at 1:55 AM by Maurice Berger
In what may be a bit of a red flag for the Obama administration, a new poll of registered voters indicates that they are evening divided in terms of the party they would vote for if congressional elections were held today: "Republicans have pulled within one point of Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 40% would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while 39% would choose the Republican. Support for Democratic congressional candidates fell two points this week, while support for GOP candidates gained one point to tie its highest level this year so far. Three weeks ago, Republicans took a two-point lead over Democrats, their first in several years, but that quickly reversed the following week. Democrats began the year holding a six- or seven-point lead over the GOP for the first several weeks of 2009. Recently, the gap has been smaller. Prior to the current update, Democrats have held a three-or-four point advantage for three of the prior four weeks."
Posted Apr 08, 2009 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Rasmussen Reports survey suggests that voters continue to rate taxation as an important issue: "While the economy remains the top issue nationwide, taxes are moving up on the priority list . . . 64% of voters see taxation as very important; it’s highest level in nearly two years. Last month, 61% said taxes were very important to them. Prior to that survey, that number never rose above 60%.Another 26% now see taxes as a somewhat important issue, while only 8% say taxes are not very or not at all important in terms of how they will vote" Significantly for the Obama administration and Congress, 81% of voters say it is important to keep the middle class tax cuts promised in the president's budget.
Rasmussen Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
April 1-4, 2009
|Issue Very Important |
Nat'l Security/War on Terror
War In Iraq
Posted Apr 07, 2009 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval rating--when matched to voters' party affiliation, according to a new Pew Research Survey--suggest as wide partisan gap: "For all of his hopes about bipartisanship, Barack Obama has the most polarized early job approval ratings of any president in the past four decades. The 61-point partisan gap in opinions about Obama's job performance is the result of a combination of high Democratic ratings for the president -- 88% job approval among Democrats -- and relatively low approval ratings among Republicans (27%). By comparison, there was a somewhat smaller 51-point partisan gap in views of George W. Bush's job performance in April 2001, a few months into his first term. At that time, Republican enthusiasm for Bush was comparable to how Democrats feel about Obama today, but there was substantially less criticism from members of the opposition party. Among Democrats, 36% approved of Bush's job performance in April 2001; that compares with a 27% job approval rating for Obama among Republicans today." The longterm implications of this are unclear, PollTrack believes, because the poll does not report the leanings of the all-important independent and unaffiliated voters.
Posted Apr 01, 2009 at 1:58 AM by Maurice Berger
With the NY-20 special election ending in a virtual tie--with Democrat Scott Murphy and Republican Jim Tedisco at 50% each--it's hard to ascribe a trend to the results. Indeed, as PollTrack has observed before, the traditionally low turnout in special elections almost guarantees that the results will be ambiguous at best. But there are two take aways from yesterday's content:  Even after the national GOP poured a good deal of time and money into the local contest, in a district with a decided Republican advatage in registration, its candudate still lost. There cannot be joy in the offices of the RNC this morning.  The extreme closeness of the race--in a swing district where Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand nevertheless won by a large margin last November--suggests that the district, and by a slight stretch of the imagination, the nation remains more divided than many pundits realize.
Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 5:30 AM by Maurice Berger
The esteemed polytical anaylast Charlie Cook--one of the very best in the business--cautions political observers to be cautious about the results of today special election in New York's 20th Congressional District to fill the seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand: “Assuming that the margin in this upstate contest to fill the seat of newly-appointed Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is three or four points or less, my advice is to respond ‘that’s nice,’ then yawn, and walk away… What is more important is if there is a uniform direction to several odd-year elections. If, for example, Republicans were to win tonight and knock off Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey in November, and pick up the open governor seat in Virginia, then it is fair to say that they will have exorcised the demons of 2006 and 2008 . . . If Democrats hold NY-20 as well as New Jersey and Virginia, they can enter 2010 knowing that even if the wind isn’t at their backs, there also isn’t a headwind.” PollTrack agrees with Cook. Is is doubtful that the outcome of NY-20 will serve as a bellwether. Rather it could hint at an impending problem for one of the national parties, at best.
Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 2:06 AM by Maurice Berger
Voting has begun in the special election in New York's 20th congressional district to fill the seat vacated by now US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. Will the outcome have great national significance? Will it be seen by the media as an early referendum on the new Obama administration? PollTrack notes that while the central issues of the campaign--the state of the economy and the loss of jobs in the district--dominated the debate between Democrat Scott Murphy and Republican Jim Tedisco, it's hard to say that the results this evening will shed light on the state of the national electorate.
Special elections are generally decided by a relatively small sector of registered voters. Often the part faithful have an advantage. And in New York's 20th, the Republicans have a decided edge: There are more than 477,000 registered voters in the district, with Republicans enjoying a 70,000 voter registration advantage over Democrats. Independents make up a quarter of the voting population. Even with a highly competitive election in 2008--and Obama enjoying enough support in this traditionally Republican district to win it with 51% of the vote--its VERY popular Democratic congresswoman, Kirsten Gillibrand, won reelection by 80,000 votes. A solid majority, yes. But achieved in a highly competitive environment, favorable to Democrats with a very popular candidate at the head of the ticket.
Today's outcome will come down to turnout. As CQ's Politics reports, if the election is tight, as most polls suggest, the election may not be decided easily: "Turnout is expected to be low, given that it is a special election at an unusual time and there are no national races on the ballot. If the vote is close, it could take weeks to sort out a winner, said John Conklin, director of public information at the New York Board of Elections. “If the result is significant, meaning [the victor] won by 20,000 or 30,000 votes I don’t think the House will wait for our certification,” he said. However, if the result is determined by a few thousand votes or less, “It will be a while because the Justice Department requires us to wait until at least April 13 for the military and overseas ballots” to arrive and be included in the official count."
Close or otherwise, the result may well seem like a national referedum, not because it validates or invalidates specfic policies of the Obama adminstration but because of the increasingly intense involvement of the national parties and even the president himself (who taped a TV commercial for Scott Murphy last week). In other words, no matter who wins, the well reported and debated involvement of such national figures as Obama and the new GOP chairman, Michael Steele, will undoubtedly spur the media and political anaylsts to spin the election's results as a kind of gauge of national sentiment, especially in a classic swing district such as NY-20, where Republicans have dominated for decades but where Democratics have made solid inroads over the past two cylces.
Posted Mar 30, 2009 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new analysis, in which the 2008 presidential election
was re-run using a district-based system of awarding electoral
votes, used only in two states (ME and NE), instead of the winner-take-all Barack Obama still would have defeated John McCain, though the Electoral College tally would have been closer than the actual 365-173 margin of victory.
The CQ Politics analysis concludes that
Obama would have beaten McCain 301-237 "using a district-based system,
under which a candidate receives two electoral votes for winning a
state and one electoral vote for every congressional district he or she
wins. Only Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes in this fashion. The
analysis found that Obama won 242 districts and McCain won 193
districts. Obama also posted another 59 electoral votes by carrying 28
states and the District of Columbia, which is entitled to three
electoral votes under the 23rd Amendment. McCain would have received
another 44 electoral votes as a result of winning 22 states." PollTrack observes that such results suggest the country remains more politically divided than the initial 2008 results suggest, divisions that now appear to be playing out in the polling that gauges political sentiment in the upcoming congressional elections of 2010. Such surveys now indicate an electorate evenly divided between support for Democrtic and Republican congressional candidates.
The CQ Politics analysis concludes that Obama would have beaten McCain 301-237 "using a district-based system, under which a candidate receives two electoral votes for winning a state and one electoral vote for every congressional district he or she wins. Only Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes in this fashion. The analysis found that Obama won 242 districts and McCain won 193 districts. Obama also posted another 59 electoral votes by carrying 28 states and the District of Columbia, which is entitled to three electoral votes under the 23rd Amendment. McCain would have received another 44 electoral votes as a result of winning 22 states." PollTrack observes that such results suggest the country remains more politically divided than the initial 2008 results suggest, divisions that now appear to be playing out in the polling that gauges political sentiment in the upcoming congressional elections of 2010. Such surveys now indicate an electorate evenly divided between support for Democrtic and Republican congressional candidates.
Posted Mar 26, 2009 at 2:28 AM by Maurice Berger
In what is undeniably a testament to President Obama's popularity, Nielsen reports that 40,354,000 tuned in on Tuersday evening 24 March to watch the second prime time news conference of his presidency. The networks carrying the press conference were ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC, Telemundo, Univision, CNBC, CNN, FOX News Channel, MSNBC, mun2. NBC led with 9.8 million, followed by ABC with 8.7 million, CBS drew 8.3 million and Fox had 4.3 million. The President’s first prime time press conference was watched by 49.5 million people on eight networks on February 9, 2009.
Posted Mar 25, 2009 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
According to an annual energy policy survey by the Gallup organization, a vast majority of Americans "endorse increased government efforts to encourage energy production from alternative sources of energy, but at the same time do not believe the government should reduce its financial support for the production of energy from traditional sources. Only 30% think the government should decrease the monetary support and incentives it provides to producers of energy from oil and gas." These numbers suggest that most Americans approve of the Obama administration's emphasis on renewable and alternative energy sources, but also that most do not want the nation to abandon more traditional energy sources, such as oil and gas.
Gallup continues: "More than three-quarters of Americans say they support increased government financial support and incentives to produce energy from alternative sources, while just 8% say the government should do less in this regard and 13% say it should continue what it is doing. And while Americans are far less likely to favor increased government aid to produce energy from traditional sources -- only 39% hold this view -- another 28% want these efforts maintained. Thus, two in three Americans think government should continue to support energy production from oil and gas at either current or heightened levels. Just 30% call for a reduction in these efforts."
Posted Mar 24, 2009 at 2:05 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Obama would easily defeat Republican Sarah Palin in 2012 in a hypothetical match up, suggesting that such a contest would result in the largest popular vote blowout since George McGovern ran against Richard Nixon in 1972: "Obama leads Palin 55%-35% in the hypothetical contest. He has an 89%-7% advantage among Democrats. Among Republican he trails 66%-17%. Last year exit polls showed Obama winning only 9% of the Republican vote, so it appears Palin would lose a lot more voters within her party than McCain did. It’s also worth noting that while only 3% of Democrats are undecided about who they would support in an Obama/Palin contest, 18% of Republicans are, an indication of even more hesitation with some GOP voters about supporting Palin if she ended up as the nominee"
Posted Mar 23, 2009 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger
While Barack Obama's overall approval ratings have slipped since he first too office--from as high as +70% to as low as 56% now--most of his loss, up until now, has come from Republican voters. A recent American Research Group poll, however, reports that Obama has slipped considerably, if not ominously, among so-called independent voters who profess allegeance to no political part: "Independent voters are split on the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president, lowering his overall job approval rating to 56% from 60% a month ago . . . . Among all Americans, 56% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 37% disapprove. When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 49% approve and 44% disapprove. Among Americans registered to vote, 57% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 37% disapprove. A total of 47% of independent voters approve of the way Obama is handling his job and 46% disapprove. In February, 53% of independents approved and 39% disapproved."
PollTrack sees these numbers, if accurate and confirmed by other polling organizations, as the first sign of trouble for the president, re: his national standing. Since Republicns are moving away from Obama, and Democrats remain very suppportive, any erosion of the independent demographic could conceivably tilt overall national support away from Obama. Given the political rough spell experienced by the administration over the past few weeks (Obama's polling average of 60%, while average for a new president, is down considerably from January), are these numbers merely fleeting or are they predictive of a downward trend?
Posted Mar 19, 2009 at 12:40 AM by Maurice Berger
A majority of Americans support President Barack Obama's executive order doing away with the rules on federal funding of embryonic stem cell research that were in place under the Bush administration: 38% of Americans said in the poll conducted late last month, that "they support easing those restrictions and another 14% said they favor no restrictions at all. About 4 in 10 Americans favor keeping the Bush restrictions or eliminating federal funding altogether . . . Americans' views on government funding for stem cell research have remained fairly stable since 2004, with the majority consistently supporting fewer restrictions on funding, rather than maintaining or strengthening the current restrictions. . . . While a strong majority of Democrats support fewer or no restrictions (64%), a majority of Republicans support keeping the Bush administration restrictions or not funding the research at all (57%). Notably, relatively few Americans of any political background favor the more extreme positions: no restrictions on government funding or not funding stem cell research at all."
Posted Mar 17, 2009 at 1:07 AM by Maurice Berger
Is it a statistical blip or do Americans see the tide turning in a recession that has plagued the nation since December 2007: After five days of steady gains, the Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, is now at its highest level of 2009. In fact, confidence is now at the highest level since the morning after Barack Obama was elected President in November. The moved up another point on Sunday to 67.0. That’s up ten points from a week ago and up ten points from a month ago. However, it remains down nine points from a year ago." Only time will tell if we're moving up from the bottom or experiencing a lull in what has been a year-long dowaward spiral.
Posted Mar 10, 2009 at 2:06 AM by Maurice Berger
Just about half of the nation's voters--49%--now believe politics in Washington will be more partisan over the next year. This number represents a 9% gain since early February and a 15% jump since early January: The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just "32% expect more cooperation between the two sides over the coming year. That’s down from 48% in January."
Rasmussen also reports a much smaller shift in perceptions of President Obama's governing style. 39% believe he is "governing on a bipartisan basis, down from 42% a month ago. The number who believe he is governing as a partisan Democrat has gone up four points to 43%. But more voters think that members of Congress from both political parties are more partisan than Obama. 50% of voters say congressional Republicans are acting in a partisan manner. 60% say that congressional Democrats are behaving as partisans."
Posted Mar 09, 2009 at 2:19 AM by Maurice Berger
Americans are slightly more satisfied with the state of the country, according to a new Gallup poll: While overall satisfaction remains low, at an average of 21% for the past week, this number represents a slight improvement from the 14% satisfaction rating in early February: "Gallup has measured national satisfaction daily since Barack Obama took office, and also did so in late October through December 2008. In the latter part of 2008, satisfaction ratings ranged from a low of 9% in Dec. 12-14 polling to a high of just 14% in the first few days after the election and after Thanksgiving. Little seemed to change when Obama first took office -- in Jan. 21-23 polling, 14% of Americans said they were satisfied. After showing a brief improvement in late January, the percentage who reported being satisfied with the state of the nation settled back to 14% by early February. But since that time, satisfaction has shown a slight but steady improvement, and has been 20% or higher each of the last seven days."
Posted Mar 06, 2009 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger
In what may suggest a looming problem for the Obama administration in the 2010 congressional elections, a new Rasmussen survey reports that "the race between Republicans and Democrats has once again tightened up in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. For the third time in the last four weeks, Republicans have pulled to within two points of the Democrats. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 41% of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while 39% said they would choose the Republican. While support for the Democrats has not changed since, support for the GOP has increased two points."
Posted Mar 04, 2009 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup Poll, "Americans' first reactions to President Barack Obama's new 10-year budget plan are more positive than negative, although a sizable group of Americans say they haven't been following news about the plan and have not yet formed an opinion." 44% say their reaction to the new plan is positive and 26% saying it's negative, with the rest having no opinion. There is a clear partisan divide in opinion: "The poll data clearly show that Americans are sharply divided along party lines in their initial reactions to the budget plan, which includes $3.6 trillion in spending in 2010 and a wide variety of spending plans and tax adjustments in the years thereafter. More than 6 in 10 Republicans say their first reaction is negative and nearly 7 in 10 Democrats say their reaction is positive. Reaction to the plan is more evenly divided among independents, but is generally more positive than negative."
Posted Mar 03, 2009 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger
Posted Mar 02, 2009 at 2:12 AM by Maurice Berger
In an indication that Americans remain pessimistic about the nation's economy future, the vast majority of respondents in a recent poll now rate the economy as poor: According to Rasmussen Reports, just 8% of adults rate the economy as good or excellent and 66% say the economy is poor. Meanwhile only 11% say the economy is getting better and 66% believe it is getting worse. 81% think the United States is currently in a recession, while 8% disagree. This lack of confidence represents one of the most daunting challenges facing the new Obama administration. In recessionary times, a lack of optimism can suppress consumer spending, leading to a vicious cycle of economic anxiety and decline.
Posted Mar 02, 2009 at 2:11 AM by Maurice Berger
A new CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered Republican voters suggests that Sarah Palin has a slight--but only slight edge--in the race for the 2012 GOP nomination for president: 29% of say they are most likely to support Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. "Right behind the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, and well within the poll's 4.5% sampling error, is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. 26% of those questioned say they are most likely backing the former, and possibly future, Republican presidential candidate. 21% of Republicans polled say they most likely would support former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, another GOP hopeful from the last campaign who may put his hat into the ring again. 9% say they would probably back Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal." The poll was taken before Jindal's primtime response to President Obana's Monday night address to congress, a performance that has met with considerable criticism from a number of Republican commentators. 10% of respondents support other candidates.
Posted Feb 26, 2009 at 1:18 AM by Maurice Berger
A USA Today/Gallup poll reports that Americans have mixed feelings about what the stimulus package should support: "The Obama administration and other advocates have argued that the massive government spending on these programs is necessary to keep a bad economic situation from getting far worse. Critics have found fault with the amounts of money involved and the long-term impact or the lack thereof. And the American public? A review and analysis of recent polling assessing the various government initiatives makes it possible to summarize American public opinion as follows: 1) Americans are generally behind the $787 billion stimulus plan (officially known as the "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act"), signed into law on Feb. 17, although with significant reservations; 2) Americans are solidly in favor of aid to homeowners facing foreclosure; 3) Americans are solidly against giving further aid to the auto companies; and 4) Americans are generally against the idea of providing further aid to ailing banks (although support for an actual government takeover of failing banks is fluid and depends on how such a process is described)."
Posted Feb 25, 2009 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger
According to ABC News, President Obama's relatively high approval rating--on average now around 62%--is impressive but not unusual for a new administration: "There are a couple of data points worth keeping in mind as we await President Obama’s address to the nation tonight - and as we digest an aide's claim today, as Jake Tapper reports, that his strong approval rating is earned." One, while his rating is high, it’s also dead average for a new president. The other is the impressive partisanship beneath it. We have approval ratings for each of the last nine elected presidents after their first month in office, back to Dwight Eisenhower. (We’re leaving Johnson and Ford aside.) There’s been a healthy range, from a low of 55 percent for George W. Bush after the disputed election of 2000 to a high of 76 percent for his father 12 years earlier. (I’m using ABC/Post polls since Reagan, Gallup previously). But the average? Sixty-seven percent. And Obama’s? Sixty-eight percent, as we reported in our new poll yesterday. His initial rating, then, is strong – but it’s also generally typical for a new guy." PollTrack cuations that any poll--even the most accurate--is just a snapshot in term. Events on the ground can change public perceptions about a political leader in an instant (George W. Bush's gargantuan jump in public approval after 9/11 is a case in point).
Posted Feb 24, 2009 at 1:56 AM by Maurice Berger
A majority pf American adults--55%--believe the "federal government would be rewarding bad behavior by providing mortgage subsidies to financially troubled homeowners." Among investors, 65% hold that view. A new poll reports that among all adults, just 32% disagree. 77% of Republicans and 60% of those not affiliated with either major political party believe the mortgage help subsidizes bad behavior. Most Democrats--51%--disagree.
Posted Feb 20, 2009 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger
A Pew Research Center poll reports that most Americans trust President Obama on the issue of terrorism: "Most Americans say his administration’s policies will reduce the likelihood of another major attack on the United States. But as in recent years, the public remains deeply divided over how best to defend the nation against the threat of terrorism. Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the threat of terrorism by more than two-to-one (50% approve vs. 21% disapprove), while 29% offer no opinion. Yet opinion is much more closely divided over Obama’s decision to close the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay in the next year. Fewer than half (46%) approve of the decision while 39% disapprove."
Posted Feb 19, 2009 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger
The American public now rejects the idea that the stimulus package was a partisan effort: 60% of U.S. voters according to a new poll say the economic stimulus plan "is mostly what Democrats want rather than a truly bipartisan product." 25% think the plan is a bipartisan effort; 15% are not sure. "80% of Republicans say the stimulus is mostly a Democratic plan, while Democrats themselves are evenly divided on the question. 62% of unaffiliated voters say it’s mostly what Democrats want, while 22% characterize the plan as bipartisan."
Posted Feb 18, 2009 at 1:27 AM by Maurice Berger
A majority of Americans now support direct diplomacy with Iran, a policy that would represent a dramatic reversal from the Bush Administration. According to a new Gallup Poll, Americans appear to support the Obama administration's push for "face-to-face" dialogue with Iran: 56% say the United States should engage in direct diplomacy with Iran, while 38% say it should not. Gallup observes: Certain subgroups of the U.S. population are more ready than others to support forging ahead with direct diplomacy with Iran. At 74%, those with post-graduate educations are the most likely to favor this approach. Moderates, Democrats, liberals, college graduates, and middle-aged Americans also express solid support at or just below two-thirds. Interestingly, younger Americans are the most resistant to direct diplomacy with Iran, with 38% in favor and 56% opposed. Keeping them company among the most cautious constituencies are conservatives, Republicans, and the less educated, though it is worth noting that levels of support among these groups still hover at or near 50%."
Posted Feb 17, 2009 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger
Americans continue to remain circumspect about the stimulus packaged signed into law by President Obama. 38% of voters now believe the $787-billion stimulus will help the economy, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. 29% believe the plan will hurt and 24% believe it will have little impact. Middle-income Americans are more likely to believe the bill will hurt rather than help. Those with incomes below $40,000 or above $100,000 are more optimistic.
Posted Feb 13, 2009 at 1:50 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Rasmussen survey suggests possible political storm clouds for Democrats on the question of how well they can manage the economy: "Democrats are still trusted more than Republicans to handle the economy by a 44% to 39% margin, but their advantage on the issue has been slipping steadily since November; 17% are not sure which party they trust more to handle the economy. In the first poll conducted after Barack Obama was elected president, the Democrats held a 15-point lead over the GOP on economic issues. In December, their lead dropped to 12 points. In January, prior to Obama’s inauguration, Democrats held a nine-point lead on the issue."
Posted Feb 11, 2009 at 10:43 AM by Maurice Berger
A new USA Today/Gallup poll reports a decided uptick in support for the economic stimulus package now working its way through congress: "Public support for an $800 billion economic stimulus package has increased to 59% in the poll conducted Tuesday night, up from 52% in Gallup polling a week ago, as well as in late January. Most of the newfound support comes from rank-and-file Democrats, suggesting President Barack Obama's efforts to sell the plan over the past week -- including in his first televised news conference on Monday -- have shored up support within his own party. Over the same period, support for the stimulus package held steady among independents, with a slight majority in favor of it. The percentage of Republicans favoring the package rose slightly from 24% to 28%, but remains below the 34% support received in early January, before Congress began its formal consideration of the package."
Posted Feb 11, 2009 at 7:34 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's Monday-night primtime news conference commanded relatively high ratings. According to Nielsen, "The conference was telecast live from 8 to 9PM on 8 networks achieving a combined 30.8 household rating with 49,455,133 viewers. The networks were ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC, Univision, CNN, Fox News Channel and MSNBC. Just weeks after his inauguration in 1993 President Bill Clinton also held a prime time news conference. That event focused on the economy and was carried by 4 networks on February 15, 1993. The sum of the audience of those networks was a 42.1 household rating with 64,300,000 viewers on average. On October 11, 2001, exactly a month after the attacks of September 11, President Bush held a prime time news conference that was carried by 7 networks. The sum of those networks’ audience from approximately 8-8:45PM was a 42.0 household rating with 64,813,000 viewers."
Posted Feb 09, 2009 at 3:52 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup poll, the American public gives President Obama a strong 67% approval rating for the way in which he is handling the government's efforts to pass an economic stimulus bill, while the Democrats and, in particular, the Republicans in Congress receive much lower approval ratings of 48% and 31%, respectively.
Posted Feb 09, 2009 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Rasmussen poll, Americans are almost evenly divided on whether the failure to pass the economic recovery bill working its way through Congress would be a "catastrophe" for the American economy. The survey finds that 44% of Americans agree with Obama and 41% do not. "There is a huge partisan divide on the question. Sixty-nine percent 69% of Democrats agree with the president's insistence that failure to pass a bill now means catastrophe, while 64% of Republicans do not. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 32% say Obama's right, but 51% don't agree."
Posted Feb 06, 2009 at 12:44 AM by Maurice Berger
The "L-Word"--Liberal--may be more popular now than at any time since since Ronald Reagan assumed the presidency in 1980. According to a new poll, "71% of American voters now view President Obama as politically liberal, including 42% who say he is Very Liberal. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 23% see him as politically moderate and just 2% see him as somewhat or very conservative. The number seeing Obama as politically liberal is up six points over the past month and is also the highest yet recorded. When he first wrapped up the Democratic Presidential nomination, 61% of American voters viewed Obama as politically liberal. On the eve of his election, 66% held that view." Given the president's relative high approval rating, it does not look like the laberal label is a problem for him.
Posted Feb 05, 2009 at 2:08 AM by Maurice Berger
In a sign of growing voter concern and pessimism over the economy, a new Rasmussen survey reports that "50% of U.S. voters say the final economic recovery plan that emerges from Congress is at least somewhat likely to make things worse rather than better, but 39% say such an outcome is not likely. 27% say the final legislation is Very Likely to make things worse, while just 7% say it’s Not at All Likely to have that effect." Right now voters seem prepared to give President Obama the benefit of the doubt: "Part of this concern is a natural reflection of voter skepticism about the legislative process. Many Americans simply accept the notion that no matter how bad things are, Congress could make them worse."
Posted Feb 03, 2009 at 8:25 AM by Maurice Berger
While a plurality of voters see Barack Obama's governing style as bipartisan, they are not so sure about the US Congress: "42% of U.S. voters say President Obama is governing on a bipartisan basis while 39% say he is governing as a partisan Democrat . . . [Yet] most voters believe congressmen from both major political parties are acting in a far more partisan manner than the president. 58% say congressional Democrats are governing in a partisan fashion, and 52% say the same about Republicans in Congress. Just 22% say members of both parties are acting on a bipartisan basis. Overall, 40% expect politics in Washington to become more partisan over the next year while 40% expect it to become more cooperative.>
Posted Feb 02, 2009 at 7:05 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll reports that Americans are evenly split about the Obama Administration's plan to shutdown the prison camp at Guantanamo Naval Base in Cuba: "44% agree with President Obama’s decision to close the camp within the next year, while 42% disagree in a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Fourteen percent (14%) are not sure which is the best course to follow" In late November of last year, just 32% of voters said Gitmo should be closed down; 49%) opposed the closing. "Democrats have changed their minds far more than Republicans. In November, 47% of Democrats favored closing the Guantanamo prison, while 79% of Republicans disagreed. Now 71% of Democrats agree with Obama’s decision to close it, with 68% of GOP voters opposed. The views of unaffiliated voters’ are little changed."
Posted Feb 02, 2009 at 1:21 AM by Maurice Berger
In a red flag for the Obama administration, consumer confidence has fallen to an all-time record low. The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the "economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, fell for the ninth-time in eleven days and is now at the lowest level ever recorded. Consumer confidence had shown signs of improving earlier in January and around the time of President Barack Obama’s inauguration, but the continuing drumbeat of economic news has taken hold and driven confidence back down once again. At 56.7, the Consumer Index is down three points over the past week and down ten points over the past three months."
Posted Jan 29, 2009 at 5:02 AM by Maurice Berger
Diageo/Hotline Poll of 800 registered voters conducted in late-January finds that President Obama's popularity is helping to boost voter perceptions of Democrats in congress: "Now that Democrats control both the White House and both Houses of Congress, Democrats in Congress currently find themselves as beneficiaries of President Obama's high favorability and job approval ratings . . . 49% of voters say they approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing, while only 26% of voters who approve of the job Republicans in Congress are doing. And, while the 111th Congress has been in session barely three weeks, the Poll finds that the Democratic candidate leads the Republican candidate 46%-22% in a generic 2010 congressional election match-up, with 27% of voters saying they are undecided."
Posted Jan 29, 2009 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new poll, a scant majority of Americans support President Obama's proposed economic stimulous package pass by the House last night: "As President Barack Obama tries to win over reluctant Republicans on his economic stimulus plan, a slim majority of the American public wants to see Congress pass the roughly $800 billion package of new government spending and tax breaks . . . 52% of the nation's adults are in favor of Congress passing the plan and 37% are opposed, while 11% have no opinion." A new Rasmussen survey, however, shows support for the package dipping well below maojority numbers: in the poll, likely voters support the measure 42% to 39% with 19% undecided.
Posted Jan 28, 2009 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Diageo/Hotline survey, "75% of voters are “confident” that President Obama will bring “real change to the way things are done in Washington, D.C.” This represents a nine-point increase from the 66% of voters who said they were “confident” in his ability to bring real change in the Diageo/Hotline Poll conducted immediately after the Presidential Election. The Poll also finds that 76% of voters hold a favorable impression of President Obama, while only 15% of voters hold an unfavorable impression."
Posted Jan 27, 2009 at 1:12 AM by Maurice Berger
The ideological divide evident in Election 2008 between the so-called blue and red states may be dissipating. According to a set of polls released by Rasmussen Reports, Tennessee and Texas--two states that were safely in John McCain’s column on Election Day--now report surprisingly high approval ratings for President Obama: "In a snapshot look at attitudes in McCain country, Rasmussen Reports finds that concerns about the current economic situation appear to override traditional political considerations. In Texas, for example, 62% of voters approve of Barack Obama’s performance to date, including 41% who Strongly Approve. 35% disapprove, with 19% who Strongly Disapprove.Only 47% of Texas voters had a favorable opinion of Obama in the last poll before Election Day . . . 60% of Tennessee voters approve of Obama’s job performance, including 39% who Strongly Approve. Thirty-five percent (35%) disapprove, 21% of whom Strongly Disapprove." Obama's approval rating in the state in a pre-Election Day poll was 45%.
Posted Jan 26, 2009 at 4:17 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Rasmussen poll, most Americans perecive President Obama as more liberal than they are: "Nearly half of U.S. voters (49%) say Barack Obama is politically more liberal than they are, as the new president begins to tackle the country’s economic problems with a massive spending-and-tax-cut bill. 9% believe he is more conservative, and 38% rate his political views about the same as their own . . . 5% are not sure."
Posted Jan 26, 2009 at 2:06 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup, President Barack Obama receives a 68% approval rating from Americans In the first job approval rating of his administration: Only 12% of Americans disapprove of how he has performed thus far, while 21% have no opinion. "Obama's 68% approval score is on the high end of the range of initial job approval ratings Gallup has recorded for the previous eight presidents who were elected to their first term. The low percentage of Americans disapproving of his performance is fairly typical for new presidents -- although Bill Clinton and George W. Bush both started with much higher public disapproval."
Posted Jan 22, 2009 at 4:11 AM by Maurice Berger
Nearly half of Americans in a new poll believe that the election of Barack Obama as the nation's first black president will inevitably improve race relations: "48% believe his inauguration signals the start of a new era of race relations in the United States. 32% disagree, while another 21% are undecided . . . African-Americans are much more convinced than white Americans that Obama’s inauguration will change race relations. Three out of four blacks (75%) say this will be the case, compared to just 43% of whites. Over a third of whites (35%) do not believe this to be true, compared to just 19% of blacks. Over a quarter of adults (26%) say they are very hopeful that the start of Obama’s administration will lead to a quick turnaround for America, and another third (34%) are somewhat hopeful. Only 15% say they are not at all hopeful for a rapid improvement and 22% say they are not very hopeful"
Posted Jan 22, 2009 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new Gallup poll, six in 10 Americans tuned in live to the presidential inauguration ceremonies on Tuesday. Another 20% heard or read news reports of the event while 20% caught none of it. Gallup observes: "The live audience included 70% of nonworking Americans, but also 53% of those currently employed -- suggesting that many workers either took the day off or had the opportunity to watch or hear the ceremonies at work. Americans were clearly more interested in the inauguration of Barack Obama than they were in George W. Bush's second inauguration four years ago. In 2005, only 40% of Americans said they watched or heard the inaugural ceremonies live."
Posted Jan 20, 2009 at 5:18 AM by Maurice Berger
Those PollTrack readers interesting in keeping track of the first days of the Obama president may want to click on this link and go to the official White House website. The Obama iteration of the site launched at noon today, just minutes after Barack Obama became the nation's 44th president. The site will include updates on presidential activities and initiatives as well as an ongoing White House blog.