Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL Prediction: Indiana GOP Primary

Posted May 03, 2016 at 9:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Indiana

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Ted Cruz

3. John Kasich

Prediction: Indiana GOP Primary

Posted May 01, 2016 at 6:09 PM by Maurice Berger

Indiana

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Ted Cruz

3. John Kasich

New York GOP and Democratic Primaries

Posted Apr 09, 2016 at 9:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Here are PollTrack's standings for the Democratic and GOP presidential primaries in New York:

 

Democratic:

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

GOP

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Ted Cruz

3. John Kasich

Wisconsin Final Prediction: GOP Primary

Posted Apr 05, 2016 at 10:29 AM by Maurice Berger

Looking at last minute polling, PollTrack predicts that Ted Cruz will prevail in the Wisconsin GOP Primary.

Cruz Holding Steady In Wisconsin Primary

Posted Apr 04, 2016 at 12:34 PM by Maurice Berger

With just a day to go, it it appears the Ted Cruz is holding onto his lead in Wisconsin. PollTrack confirms its prediction that Cruz will prevail in the state over Donald Trump (now in second place) and John Kasich.

Wisconsin GOP Primary: Prediction

Posted Apr 01, 2016 at 9:50 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's prediction for the up coming Wisconsin GOP Primary:

1. Ted Cruz WINNER

2. Donald Trump

3. John Kasich

Trump As Third Party Candidate

Posted Mar 30, 2016 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger

With Donald Trump breaking his pledge not to run as a third party candidate, the question is: how much damage could he do to the GOP candidate. The answer appears to be considerable. A Rasmussen Reports poll in early March, 36% of of GOP voters said they were "likely" to vote for Trump; 24% "very likely. These numbers would assure victory for the Democratic candidate, one reason why it might be difficult for Trump the nomination if he comes into the convention with the lion's share of delegates.

27 March Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Mar 27, 2016 at 12:54 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 27 March 2016 ranking of announced and presumptive GOP candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Donald Trump

2. Ted Cruz

 

3. John Kasich

 

 

7 October Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Oct 07, 2015 at 1:24 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 7 October 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive GOP candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Donald Trump

2. Ben Carson

3. Marco Rubio

4. Carly Fiorina

5. Jeb Bush

6. Ted Cruz

7. John Kasich

8. Mike Huckabee

9. Chris Christie

10. Rand Paul

11. Bobby Jindal

12. Rick Santorum

13. Lindsey Graham

14. George Pataki

24 August Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Aug 24, 2015 at 10:46 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 24 August 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Donald Trump

2. Jeb Bush

3. Ben Carson

4. Scott Walker

5. Marco Rubio

6. Ted Cruz

7. Carly Fiorina

8. Mike Huckabee

9. John Kasich

10. Chris Christie

11. Rand Paul

12. Bobby Jindal

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. George Pataki

16. Rick Perry

24 July Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jul 24, 2015 at 9:52 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 24 July 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Marco Rubio

3. Donald Trump

4. Scott Walker

5. Ben Carson

6. John Kasich

7. Rand Paul

8. Mike Huckabee

9. Carly Fiorina

10. Ted Cruz

11. George Pataki

12. Bobby Jindal

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. Chris Christie

16. Rick Perry

17 July Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jul 17, 2015 at 3:36 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 17 July 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Marco Rubio

3. Donald Trump

4. Scott Walker

5. Rand Paul

6. John Kasich

7. Mike Huckabee

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ted Cruz

10. George Pataki

11. Bobby Jindal

12. Ben Carson

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. Chris Christie

16. Rick Perry

5 July Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jul 04, 2015 at 10:35 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 1 July 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Marco Rubio

3. Scott Walker

4. Rand Paul

5. John Kasich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. Donald Trump

8. George Pataki

9. Carly Fiorina

10. Ted Cruz

11. Bobby Jindal

12. Ben Carson

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. Chris Christie

16. Rick Perry

1 July Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jul 01, 2015 at 2:00 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 1 July 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Marco Rubio

3. Scott Walker

4. Rand Paul

5. John Kasich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. George Pataki

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ted Cruz

10. Donald Trump

11. Bobby Jindal

12. Ben Carson

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. Chris Christie

16. Rick Perry

24 June Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jun 24, 2015 at 9:47 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 24 June 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Marco Rubio

3. Jeb Bush

4. Rand Paul

5. John Kasich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. George Pataki

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ted Cruz

10. Donald Trump

11. Bobby Jindal

12. Ben Carson

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. Chris Christie

16. Rick Perry

22 June Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jun 21, 2015 at 1:51 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 22 June 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Marco Rubio

3. Jeb Bush

4. Rand Paul

5. John Kasich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. George Pataki

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ted Cruz

10. Ben Carson

11. Rick Santorum

12. Lindsey Graham

13. Chris Christie

14. Donald Trump

15. Rick Perry

15 June Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jun 14, 2015 at 10:26 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 15 June 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Jeb Bush

3. Marco Rubio

4. Rand Paul

5. John Kasich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. George Pataki

8. Ted Cruz

9. Rick Santorum

10. Carly Fiorina

11. Lindsey Graham

12. Ben Carson

13. Chris Christie

14. Donald Trump

15. Rick Perry

New PollTrack Ranking Of Candidates for GOP Nomination For President

Posted May 19, 2015 at 11:40 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 12 May 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Jeb Bush

3. Marco Rubio

4. Rand Paul

5. Mike Huckabee

6. John Kasich

7. Ted Cruz

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ben Carson

10. Chris Christie

11. Rick Santorum

12. Rick Perry

12 May 2015: PollTrack's Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Nomination Fight

Posted May 12, 2015 at 4:03 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 12 May 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Jeb Bush

3. Rand Paul

4. Marco Rubio

5. Mike Huckabee

6. John Kasich

7. Ted Cruz

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ben Carson

10. Chris Christie

11. Rick Santorum

12. Rick Perry

11 May 2015: GOP Nomination Presidential Ranking 2016

Posted May 11, 2015 at 5:50 PM by Maurice Berger

Over the next few months, PollTrack will be ranking the GOP contenders for the 2016 Republican nomination for president.These rankings will consider several factors, including public opinion polls, internal polls (when available), the ups and downs of the news cycle, conditions on the ground, and electoral history.


Here is PollTrack's May 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Scott Walker

3. Rand Paul

4. Marco Rubio

5. Mike Huckabee

6. John Kasich

7. Ted Cruz

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ben Carson

10. Chris Christie

11. Rick Santorum

12. Rick Perry

 

Gallup: No Bounce For Romney

Posted Sep 10, 2012 at 9:19 AM by Maurice Berger

Another analysis of the post-GOP convention bounce, this time from Gallup, reports that Mitt Romney received a negative "bounce from last week's Republican National Convention, as the 46% of registered voters who supported him in Aug. 31-Sept. 3 Daily tracking is essentially the same as the 47% who preferred him in Aug. 24-27 tracking, the four days preceding the convention." Here is Gallup's chart:

Gallup Daily Tracking of Voter Presidential Preferences Before and After Aug. 28-30 Republican National Convention

Romney's Convention: A Negative Bounce

Posted Sep 08, 2012 at 2:00 PM by Maurice Berger

In news that is virtually unprecedented for a major party candidate coming out of a convention, the Princeton Election Consortium reports that Mitt Romney actually received a negative bounce. The PEC observes: "Indeed, it appears that the race shifted towards President Obama by 6-15 EV, or about 1.0% of Popular Vote Meta-Margin. From an analytical perspective, a negative bounce is quite remarkable because all the talk in recent weeks has been of bounces being smaller or zero, but always in the hosting party's favor. It is all the more remarkable because of the relatively small number of state polls over the last week, so that the Meta-analysis's inputs have not fully turned over... So the negative bounce may be larger than what is shown in the graph. Such an event would have been missed in past years (and even this year) because national polls don't have the best resolution."

Declining Interest In Last Week's GOP Convention

Posted Sep 07, 2012 at 10:06 AM by Maurice Berger

Another indication of the public's declining interest in last week's GOP convention: a survey by Pew Research released this week reports that Americans paid far less attention to this year's Republican convention than it did four years ago. Just 37% say they watched all or some of the Republican convention, down from 56% in 2008. PollTrack will be tracking the public response to the Democratic convention to see if this decline goes beyond partisan lines. Another problem for the GOP nominee, Mitt Romney: 20% of those who tuned into the convention cited Clint Eastwood's speech as the convention highlight, while just 17% named the nominee's speech.

One Reasson For Romney's Shallow Bounce

Posted Sep 03, 2012 at 1:07 PM by Maurice Berger

One reason for Mitt Romney's lack of a discernible bounce after the GOP convention may well be the relative unpopularity of his convention speech. According to a new poll by Gallup just 38% rated Mitt Romney's speech as excellent or good and 16% rated it as poor or terrible. Just as Romney's post-convention bounce is among the lowest of any challenger since 1960, he also receives the lowest rating of a convention speech since GOP challenger Bob Dole's speech in 1996.

Election 2012: Romney Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted May 24, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released WMUR-CNN poll in New Hampshire reports that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has a huge lead in the Republican presidential race with 33%, followed by Rep. Ron Paul at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Rudy Giuliani at 6%.

McCain's Bounce

Posted Sep 12, 2008 at 7:18 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack has just perused a bunch of national periodic and daily tracking polls released today. The conclusion: the race is very close, with McCain holding onto a 2% to 3% aggregate lead. Another conclusion: McCain 's bounce may have solidified to a certain extent. Obama's bounce, on the other hand, appears to have been blunted, then erased, followed as it was by the VP announcement and the Republican convention a few hours later.

PollTrack: Close But Trending McCain's Way

Posted Sep 09, 2008 at 1:49 AM by Maurice Berger

Looking at the bulk of national polling completed entirely after the Republican National Convention, PollTrack now sees the race as statistically tied but trending in McCain's direction. It appears that the RNC was successful in erasing Obama's "bounce," increasing voter party identification for the Republicans, and improving McCain's numbers in a range of categories, from his potential as leader and commander in chief to his handling of Iraq and the economy.

The thing to watch: state polls. Are national numbers translated into an improved performance for McCain in battleground states? The earliest signs suggest an up tick in support for McCain in some of these states.

Another thing to watch: the media's vetting of Palin. Will the luster wear-off her candidacy? If so, will races that now favor McCain--Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Missouri, all states with significant Evangelical populations--become closer?

New Poll Shows McCain +10%: A Dramatic Turnaround for the Republican?

Posted Sep 08, 2008 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new USA Today/Gallup Poll released this morning (this is a periodic survey, not a daily tracker), suggests a dramatic turnaround for the McCain campaign: when the poll's filter was narrowed to include only those most likely to vote in November, McCain's lead is now at an astonishing +10% and well over the 50% mark, at 54% to 44%. With all registered voter, McCain's lead shrinks to 4%, 50% to 46%.

The "likely voter" number may be an anomaly. By using earlier voter models, thus underestimating turnout for the 18-29 year-old vote demographic, for example, the poll may skew the numbers in McCain's direction (earlier models would favor turnout among the +65 set, a demographic with a consistently high turnout, the age group most likely to vote for McCain according to previous surveys).

Nevertheless, pollsters are fairly adept at determining voter enthusiasm, a key factor in turnout. Since Obama's primary and caucus winning streak in February, enthusiasm among younger voters appears to have dropped considerably according to a number of surveys. In 1972, support for the anti-war candidate, Senator George McGovern (DEM-SD) was extremely high among young voters during the primary season. By election day, their support failed to translate into votes and Nixon won by a landslide. Younger voters are notoriously unreliable on Election Day, as are single women, another demographic now trending towards Obama.

Overall, PollTrack has noticed a marked improvement in McCain's numbers in surveys released in the wake of the Republican National Convention. The answers to a broad range of questions about the relative merits of the two candidates in the Survey USA poll released yesterday (see below)--a survey that suggests that more voters now believe McCain, and not Obama will win in November--indicates a clear increase in voter confidence for the Republican over the Democrat in virtually every category, including handling the Iraq war and foreign policy, commander in chief credentials, and even on the economy (Obama still wins on this one, but by a smaller number than earlier surveys).

More Americans Now Think McCain , Not Obama, Will Win

Posted Sep 07, 2008 at 4:30 PM by Maurice Berger

A new Survey USA poll taken after the Republican National Convention reports that more Americans now think McCain, and not Obama, will win in November. McCain leads Obama, 49% to 44%, among respondents who were asked "if you were placing a bet today" who do you think will be elected president? In recent months, most public opinion surveys have indicated that voters believed Obama would win.

If this trend holds, it could prove problematic for Obama, especially at a time when the Republican brand is on the wane and a Democratic win had seemed likely to many voters.

McCain Moves Ahead . . . For Now

Posted Sep 07, 2008 at 5:12 AM by Maurice Berger

An average of Daily Tracking Polls, now indicates that McCain has moved into the lead. Indeed, the Gallup tracker just released shows McCain with a 3% advantage--48% to 45%. PollTrack's daily average gives McCain a 1.5% lead overall. McCain has heretofore not been able to hold any statistical lead for more than a few days during the past two months.

If his lead holds, McCain's post-convention "bounce" may be steeper than Obama's (right now indicating an 8% up tick for the Republicans since the height of the Democratic "bounce" at roughly 4% to 5%). Does the fact that the Republicans went last also give them a long term advantage, allowing their gains to solidify? Time will tell.

Gallup: Obama's Vanishing "Bounce"

Posted Sep 06, 2008 at 5:18 AM by Maurice Berger

Today's Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, like Rasmussen, concludes that Obama's "bounce" has vanished in the wake of the Republican National Convention. Gallup now now calls the race "Too-Close-To Call," with Obama's 8% advantage dwindling to 2%, 47% to 45%.

Watch the 50% Mark and the Palin Effect III

Posted Sep 06, 2008 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

It looks like the timing of the conventions--virtually back-to-back--as well as the relative success of the Republican National Convention in communicating its message to voters may have significantly blunted the 5% "bounce" that Obama received coming out of his convention. The two daily trackers--Rasmussen and Gallup--both show a renewed tightening of the race, with numbers falling back to a point or so of where they were before the start of either convention. This morning, Rasmussen shows Obama with a 3% lead: 49% to 46%.

There is a good news for both candidates in Rasmussen's numbers. For Obama, it's the candidate's proximity to 50%. Obama appears to maintain a base number in the upper forties, McCain in the mid to lower-forties. The big question: will McCain's convention produce more than a tradition "bounce" of 4-5%. If so, his numbers could inch up towards the magic number of 50%. Right now, it appears that the race has returned to its pre-convention status, with fluid numbers, Obama above 45%, McCain slightly below, and both candidates very close.

As for the McCain campaign, Rasmussen suggests that Obama's lead among women has dropped by 50% over the past five days, down to 7% from a lead of 14% after the Democratic National Convention.  The jury is still out on whether Palin has improved McCain's standing among women. But one thing is certain: all too often the pundits have reduced the "female vote" to a rigid stereotype, one that implies that most women are pro-choice, anti-gun, and feminist. Yet in many swing states--including PA, OH, MI, WI--large blocs of female voters, especially working class and/or married women, trend conservative in their cultural and social beliefs. Could this demographic account for McCain's improving numbers among female voters?

McCain Wins Speech Viewership War

Posted Sep 05, 2008 at 8:18 AM by Maurice Berger

More viewers tuned into John McCain's acceptance speech last night than Obama's a week ago. And more than 13 million more people watched Palin's speech than Biden's. Here are the final Nielsen numbers for all four events:

McCain: 38.9 million

Obama: 38.4 million

Palin: 37.2 million

Biden: 24.0 million

As for gender: more women tuned into Obama's speech; more men for McCain's.

McCain's "Bounce"?

Posted Sep 05, 2008 at 1:45 AM by Maurice Berger

Rasmussen's latest daily tracker would seem to confirm the conclusion of the CBS News poll released late last night: the race is tightening back to at least a statistical tie. Rasmussen Reports indicates a 3% point drop for Obama over the past two days (with most of this sample taken before McCain's speech). Obama now leads in this survey, 48% to 46%.

Early results from the week also suggest that Sarah Palin and her speech were well received by voters. PollTrack will have more detailed results later today and tomorrow.

The jury is still out on the question of McCain's "bounce" as well as the potential of back to back conventions to cancel out gains made by either party (or by the first convention). PollTrack will have a better sense of this next week (but clues will roll out over the next few days, as they have in the Rasmussen and CBS surveys, as voters begin to digest the messages of both conventions)

The Beginning of a McCain "Bounce"?

Posted Sep 04, 2008 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

Rasmussen's Daily Tracker released this morning reports that this is "the second straight day that the results have inched very slightly in McCain’s direction as the GOP convention gets underway and seeks to overcome Obama's convention bounce" Are we seeing the start of McCain's convention bounce, even before McCain's speech and the effects of Palin's dramatic speech set in with voters?

In another positive sign for the Republicans, only 42% of Independents believe Obama is more qualified than Palin to be president. And by a margin of ten to one, Rasmussen reports that voters believe that "journalists are trying to hurt Palin's campaign rather than help." The Republican's adept anti-media rhetoric may indeed be working.

The Palin Effect II: Evangelicals and The Republican Base

Posted Sep 03, 2008 at 1:04 AM by Maurice Berger

The other problem for the Democrats is the rapid fire timing of McCain's announcement of his running mate in the hours after Obama's speech, a move justified by a party whose convention was just days away. While the jury is still out about whether Palin improves McCain's support among women--though conservative women do seem to be warming to the nominee--one thing is certain: Palin has dramatically improved McCain's standing with religious conservatives and Evangelical Christians, the base of his party. The enthusiasm among these voters--a bloc that heretofore has been slow to support or trust McCain--is extremely high at the moment. The announcement resulted in an almost instantaneous rush of cash into Republican coffers, igniting "a wave of elation and emotion that has led some grassroots activists to weep with joy."

The intensity level among these voters matters a lot for the Republicans. Evangelical Christians, for example, are among the most reliable voters (along with the 65+ set, now also leaning McCain's way). In 2004, a close election as this one may well be, these voters came out in exceedingly high numbers, thus assuring President Bush's victory.

How Palin does tonight--in a much anticipated speech, her introduction to the nation--may well determine if voter enthusiasm for Palin extends beyond these religious conservative voters.

Obama Has His Bounce, But For How Long?

Posted Sep 03, 2008 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A slew of polls released over the past 48 hours report good news for Obama: a 4% -5% "bounce" nationally over surveys conducted before the Democratic National Convention. While this represents an average post-convention bounce, several of the polls report another milestone for the Democrat--he's broken the 50% mark.

Yet, PollTrack wonders: how durable will these numbers be given the odd timing of the conventions. In most presidential cycles, the three to four week lag between events gives voters time to digest the convention and its messages and get to know the candidate even better, all before the other party has its turn.

 

Bounce: The Long View

Posted Sep 02, 2008 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll issued today by CBS News suggests that Obama received a modest "bounce" out of his convention. According to the poll, he now leads 48% to 40%, up five points from their last survey a few weeks ago. These numbers, of course, conflict with CNN/Opinion Research and other polls that show no "bounce" at all. Rasmussen's numbers this morning are starting to tick upward for Obama, suggesting a modest but discernible "bounce."

Two factors are at play: for one, the true impact of events on the ground may not be known for weeks. Public opinion is often slow to form. In 1984, Democrat Walter Mondale's announcement of Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate--the first women to appear on the national ticket of either party--produced a flurry of media excitement and a modest jump in the polls. Within weeks, any gain had evaporated.

Just as important: presidential races are not decided by popular vote, but rather by 51 state-wide races (D.C. has three electoral votes). Thus, PollTrack will keep a close eye on public opinion surveys as they emerge out of battleground states in the coming weeks.

One demographic to watch closely: so-called Reagan Democrats--white, conservative, mostly working-class who broke with their party to support Ronald Reagan in the 1980s--in key states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Many of these voters so far have been disinclined to vote for Obama but disgruntled with Republicans. Did the DNC succeed in increasing their trust in Obama? Will McCain's VP pick appeal to these voters? Will McCain and Palin's speeches, and the Republican National Convention in general, convince these voters that they are true "mavericks" who proffer real change and a departure from the policies of the Bush administration?

Indeed, the race appears very fluid right now, with CBS News reporting that "a significant number of voters who have yet to finally make up their minds."

Rasmussen: A "Modest Bounce"

Posted Aug 28, 2008 at 1:45 AM by Maurice Berger

While Obama's pick of Biden did not appear to lift his numbers--perhaps because it further alienated Hillary Clinton's most ardent supports--the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll discerns a "modest" bounce for Obama as his convention unfolds: "Obama’s poll numbers have improved over the past couple of nights and today’s update shows a tie race because it includes a mix of both recent trends. But it seems likely that Obama will end the convention with a modest lead over McCain."

Is this bounce durable, however: will the Democrats maintain the lead given the imminent announcement of McCain's running mate (as early as this evening) and the start of the Republican National Convention, now four days away?

 

Post-Convention Bounce

Posted Aug 26, 2008 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

By now, you may have heard a lot about "bounce"--the ticking up in poll numbers after a presidential candidate's national convention. The average "bounce" is 5%. This week, Polltrack will be paying close attention to voter response to the Democratic National Convention (and next week to the Republican National Convention). Will Obama's numbers start nudging up in the Daily Tracking Polls? Will he get the post-convention bounce he needs to pull ahead of McCain?

And what of the unprecedented timing of the two conventions, now within days of each other? Will this rapid turn around--now a matter of a few days rather than the traditional lag of three to four weeks--combined with McCain's naming of his VP later this week blunt or distort this bounce?

Keep in mind: the two daily trackers analyzed on this site--Rasmussen and Gallup--represent a rolling average of nightly surveys over the previous three or four days. Thus, any meaningful improvement in Obama's numbers may not be felt until Wednesday or Thursday at the earliest.

One problem for the Democrats, however, is the timing of the conventions relative to each other: the Republicans go last, usually the favored position, affording the party the "last word" as voters finally start focusing on the fall campaign.