A just released WMUR-CNN poll in New Hampshire reports that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has a huge lead in the Republican presidential race with 33%, followed by Rep. Ron Paul at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Rudy Giuliani at 6%.

PollTrack has just perused a bunch of national periodic and daily tracking polls released today. The conclusion: the race is very close, with McCain holding onto a 2% to 3% aggregate lead. Another conclusion: McCain 's bounce may have solidified to a certain extent. Obama's bounce, on the other hand, appears to have been blunted, then erased, followed as it was by the VP announcement and the Republican convention a few hours later.

Looking at the bulk of national polling completed entirely after the Republican National Convention, PollTrack now sees the race as statistically tied but trending in McCain's direction. It appears that the RNC was successful in erasing Obama's "bounce," increasing voter party identification for the Republicans, and improving McCain's numbers in a range of categories, from his potential as leader and commander in chief to his handling of Iraq and the economy.

The thing to watch: state polls. Are national numbers translated into an improved performance for McCain in battleground states? The earliest signs suggest an up tick in support for McCain in some of these states.

Another thing to watch: the media's vetting of Palin. Will the luster wear-off her candidacy? If so, will races that now favor McCain--Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Missouri, all states with significant Evangelical populations--become closer?

A new USA Today/Gallup Poll released this morning (this is a periodic survey, not a daily tracker), suggests a dramatic turnaround for the McCain campaign: when the poll's filter was narrowed to include only those most likely to vote in November, McCain's lead is now at an astonishing +10% and well over the 50% mark, at 54% to 44%. With all registered voter, McCain's lead shrinks to 4%, 50% to 46%.

The "likely voter" number may be an anomaly. By using earlier voter models, thus underestimating turnout for the 18-29 year-old vote demographic, for example, the poll may skew the numbers in McCain's direction (earlier models would favor turnout among the +65 set, a demographic with a consistently high turnout, the age group most likely to vote for McCain according to previous surveys).

Nevertheless, pollsters are fairly adept at determining voter enthusiasm, a key factor in turnout. Since Obama's primary and caucus winning streak in February, enthusiasm among younger voters appears to have dropped considerably according to a number of surveys. In 1972, support for the anti-war candidate, Senator George McGovern (DEM-SD) was extremely high among young voters during the primary season. By election day, their support failed to translate into votes and Nixon won by a landslide. Younger voters are notoriously unreliable on Election Day, as are single women, another demographic now trending towards Obama.

Overall, PollTrack has noticed a marked improvement in McCain's numbers in surveys released in the wake of the Republican National Convention. The answers to a broad range of questions about the relative merits of the two candidates in the Survey USA poll released yesterday (see below)--a survey that suggests that more voters now believe McCain, and not Obama will win in November--indicates a clear increase in voter confidence for the Republican over the Democrat in virtually every category, including handling the Iraq war and foreign policy, commander in chief credentials, and even on the economy (Obama still wins on this one, but by a smaller number than earlier surveys).

A new Survey USA poll taken after the Republican National Convention reports that more Americans now think McCain, and not Obama, will win in November. McCain leads Obama, 49% to 44%, among respondents who were asked "if you were placing a bet today" who do you think will be elected president? In recent months, most public opinion surveys have indicated that voters believed Obama would win.

If this trend holds, it could prove problematic for Obama, especially at a time when the Republican brand is on the wane and a Democratic win had seemed likely to many voters.

An average of Daily Tracking Polls, now indicates that McCain has moved into the lead. Indeed, the Gallup tracker just released shows McCain with a 3% advantage--48% to 45%. PollTrack's daily average gives McCain a 1.5% lead overall. McCain has heretofore not been able to hold any statistical lead for more than a few days during the past two months.

If his lead holds, McCain's post-convention "bounce" may be steeper than Obama's (right now indicating an 8% up tick for the Republicans since the height of the Democratic "bounce" at roughly 4% to 5%). Does the fact that the Republicans went last also give them a long term advantage, allowing their gains to solidify? Time will tell.

Today's Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, like Rasmussen, concludes that Obama's "bounce" has vanished in the wake of the Republican National Convention. Gallup now now calls the race "Too-Close-To Call," with Obama's 8% advantage dwindling to 2%, 47% to 45%.

It looks like the timing of the conventions--virtually back-to-back--as well as the relative success of the Republican National Convention in communicating its message to voters may have significantly blunted the 5% "bounce" that Obama received coming out of his convention. The two daily trackers--Rasmussen and Gallup--both show a renewed tightening of the race, with numbers falling back to a point or so of where they were before the start of either convention. This morning, Rasmussen shows Obama with a 3% lead: 49% to 46%.

There is a good news for both candidates in Rasmussen's numbers. For Obama, it's the candidate's proximity to 50%. Obama appears to maintain a base number in the upper forties, McCain in the mid to lower-forties. The big question: will McCain's convention produce more than a tradition "bounce" of 4-5%. If so, his numbers could inch up towards the magic number of 50%. Right now, it appears that the race has returned to its pre-convention status, with fluid numbers, Obama above 45%, McCain slightly below, and both candidates very close.

As for the McCain campaign, Rasmussen suggests that Obama's lead among women has dropped by 50% over the past five days, down to 7% from a lead of 14% after the Democratic National Convention.  The jury is still out on whether Palin has improved McCain's standing among women. But one thing is certain: all too often the pundits have reduced the "female vote" to a rigid stereotype, one that implies that most women are pro-choice, anti-gun, and feminist. Yet in many swing states--including PA, OH, MI, WI--large blocs of female voters, especially working class and/or married women, trend conservative in their cultural and social beliefs. Could this demographic account for McCain's improving numbers among female voters?

More viewers tuned into John McCain's acceptance speech last night than Obama's a week ago. And more than 13 million more people watched Palin's speech than Biden's. Here are the final Nielsen numbers for all four events:

McCain: 38.9 million

Obama: 38.4 million

Palin: 37.2 million

Biden: 24.0 million

As for gender: more women tuned into Obama's speech; more men for McCain's.

Rasmussen's latest daily tracker would seem to confirm the conclusion of the CBS News poll released late last night: the race is tightening back to at least a statistical tie. Rasmussen Reports indicates a 3% point drop for Obama over the past two days (with most of this sample taken before McCain's speech). Obama now leads in this survey, 48% to 46%.

Early results from the week also suggest that Sarah Palin and her speech were well received by voters. PollTrack will have more detailed results later today and tomorrow.

The jury is still out on the question of McCain's "bounce" as well as the potential of back to back conventions to cancel out gains made by either party (or by the first convention). PollTrack will have a better sense of this next week (but clues will roll out over the next few days, as they have in the Rasmussen and CBS surveys, as voters begin to digest the messages of both conventions)

Rasmussen's Daily Tracker released this morning reports that this is "the second straight day that the results have inched very slightly in McCain’s direction as the GOP convention gets underway and seeks to overcome Obama's convention bounce" Are we seeing the start of McCain's convention bounce, even before McCain's speech and the effects of Palin's dramatic speech set in with voters?

In another positive sign for the Republicans, only 42% of Independents believe Obama is more qualified than Palin to be president. And by a margin of ten to one, Rasmussen reports that voters believe that "journalists are trying to hurt Palin's campaign rather than help." The Republican's adept anti-media rhetoric may indeed be working.

The other problem for the Democrats is the rapid fire timing of McCain's announcement of his running mate in the hours after Obama's speech, a move justified by a party whose convention was just days away. While the jury is still out about whether Palin improves McCain's support among women--though conservative women do seem to be warming to the nominee--one thing is certain: Palin has dramatically improved McCain's standing with religious conservatives and Evangelical Christians, the base of his party. The enthusiasm among these voters--a bloc that heretofore has been slow to support or trust McCain--is extremely high at the moment. The announcement resulted in an almost instantaneous rush of cash into Republican coffers, igniting "a wave of elation and emotion that has led some grassroots activists to weep with joy."

The intensity level among these voters matters a lot for the Republicans. Evangelical Christians, for example, are among the most reliable voters (along with the 65+ set, now also leaning McCain's way). In 2004, a close election as this one may well be, these voters came out in exceedingly high numbers, thus assuring President Bush's victory.

How Palin does tonight--in a much anticipated speech, her introduction to the nation--may well determine if voter enthusiasm for Palin extends beyond these religious conservative voters.

A slew of polls released over the past 48 hours report good news for Obama: a 4% -5% "bounce" nationally over surveys conducted before the Democratic National Convention. While this represents an average post-convention bounce, several of the polls report another milestone for the Democrat--he's broken the 50% mark.

Yet, PollTrack wonders: how durable will these numbers be given the odd timing of the conventions. In most presidential cycles, the three to four week lag between events gives voters time to digest the convention and its messages and get to know the candidate even better, all before the other party has its turn.

A new poll issued today by CBS News suggests that Obama received a modest "bounce" out of his convention. According to the poll, he now leads 48% to 40%, up five points from their last survey a few weeks ago. These numbers, of course, conflict with CNN/Opinion Research and other polls that show no "bounce" at all. Rasmussen's numbers this morning are starting to tick upward for Obama, suggesting a modest but discernible "bounce."

Two factors are at play: for one, the true impact of events on the ground may not be known for weeks. Public opinion is often slow to form. In 1984, Democrat Walter Mondale's announcement of Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate--the first women to appear on the national ticket of either party--produced a flurry of media excitement and a modest jump in the polls. Within weeks, any gain had evaporated.

Just as important: presidential races are not decided by popular vote, but rather by 51 state-wide races (D.C. has three electoral votes). Thus, PollTrack will keep a close eye on public opinion surveys as they emerge out of battleground states in the coming weeks.

One demographic to watch closely: so-called Reagan Democrats--white, conservative, mostly working-class who broke with their party to support Ronald Reagan in the 1980s--in key states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Many of these voters so far have been disinclined to vote for Obama but disgruntled with Republicans. Did the DNC succeed in increasing their trust in Obama? Will McCain's VP pick appeal to these voters? Will McCain and Palin's speeches, and the Republican National Convention in general, convince these voters that they are true "mavericks" who proffer real change and a departure from the policies of the Bush administration?

Indeed, the race appears very fluid right now, with CBS News reporting that "a significant number of voters who have yet to finally make up their minds."

While Obama's pick of Biden did not appear to lift his numbers--perhaps because it further alienated Hillary Clinton's most ardent supports--the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll discerns a "modest" bounce for Obama as his convention unfolds: "Obama’s poll numbers have improved over the past couple of nights and today’s update shows a tie race because it includes a mix of both recent trends. But it seems likely that Obama will end the convention with a modest lead over McCain."

Is this bounce durable, however: will the Democrats maintain the lead given the imminent announcement of McCain's running mate (as early as this evening) and the start of the Republican National Convention, now four days away?

By now, you may have heard a lot about "bounce"--the ticking up in poll numbers after a presidential candidate's national convention. The average "bounce" is 5%. This week, Polltrack will be paying close attention to voter response to the Democratic National Convention (and next week to the Republican National Convention). Will Obama's numbers start nudging up in the Daily Tracking Polls? Will he get the post-convention bounce he needs to pull ahead of McCain?

And what of the unprecedented timing of the two conventions, now within days of each other? Will this rapid turn around--now a matter of a few days rather than the traditional lag of three to four weeks--combined with McCain's naming of his VP later this week blunt or distort this bounce?

Keep in mind: the two daily trackers analyzed on this site--Rasmussen and Gallup--represent a rolling average of nightly surveys over the previous three or four days. Thus, any meaningful improvement in Obama's numbers may not be felt until Wednesday or Thursday at the earliest.

One problem for the Democrats, however, is the timing of the conventions relative to each other: the Republicans go last, usually the favored position, affording the party the "last word" as voters finally start focusing on the fall campaign.