Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL Prediction: Indiana GOP Primary

Posted May 03, 2016 at 9:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Indiana

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Ted Cruz

3. John Kasich

Prediction: Indiana GOP Primary

Posted May 01, 2016 at 6:09 PM by Maurice Berger

Indiana

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Ted Cruz

3. John Kasich

FINAL Predictions: 26 April GOP Primaries

Posted Apr 25, 2016 at 9:55 AM by Maurice Berger

Connecticut

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

 

Delaware

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

 

Maryland

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

 

Pennsylvania

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Ted Cruz

3. John Kasich

 

Rhode Island

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

Predictions: 26 April GOP Primaries

Posted Apr 21, 2016 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger

Connecticut

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

 

Delaware

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

 

Maryland

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

 

Pennsylvania

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Ted Cruz

3. John Kasich

 

Rhode Island

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. John Kasich

3. Ted Cruz

New York GOP and Democratic Primaries

Posted Apr 09, 2016 at 9:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Here are PollTrack's standings for the Democratic and GOP presidential primaries in New York:

 

Democratic:

1. Hillary Clinton WINNER

2. Bernie Sanders

 

GOP

1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Ted Cruz

3. John Kasich

Wisconsin Final Prediction: GOP Primary

Posted Apr 05, 2016 at 10:29 AM by Maurice Berger

Looking at last minute polling, PollTrack predicts that Ted Cruz will prevail in the Wisconsin GOP Primary.

Cruz Holding Steady In Wisconsin Primary

Posted Apr 04, 2016 at 12:34 PM by Maurice Berger

With just a day to go, it it appears the Ted Cruz is holding onto his lead in Wisconsin. PollTrack confirms its prediction that Cruz will prevail in the state over Donald Trump (now in second place) and John Kasich.

Wisconsin GOP Primary: Prediction

Posted Apr 01, 2016 at 9:50 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's prediction for the up coming Wisconsin GOP Primary:

1. Ted Cruz WINNER

2. Donald Trump

3. John Kasich

Trump As Third Party Candidate

Posted Mar 30, 2016 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger

With Donald Trump breaking his pledge not to run as a third party candidate, the question is: how much damage could he do to the GOP candidate. The answer appears to be considerable. A Rasmussen Reports poll in early March, 36% of of GOP voters said they were "likely" to vote for Trump; 24% "very likely. These numbers would assure victory for the Democratic candidate, one reason why it might be difficult for Trump the nomination if he comes into the convention with the lion's share of delegates.

27 March Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Mar 27, 2016 at 12:54 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 27 March 2016 ranking of announced and presumptive GOP candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Donald Trump

2. Ted Cruz

 

3. John Kasich

 

 

NV GOP Caucus Prediction

Posted Feb 23, 2016 at 5:43 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack makes the following prediction in tonight's Nevada GOP Caucus.

SC GOP Primary


1. Donald Trump WINNER

2. Marco Rubio

3. Ted Cruz

 

4. John Kasich

5. Ben Carson

 

9 November Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Nov 09, 2015 at 7:07 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 9 November 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive GOP candidates, from most to least likely to prevail. Starting with the 9 November Ranking: PollTrack has narrowed the field to the top eight candidates:

1. Donald Trump

2. Ben Carson

3. Marco Rubio

4. Ted Cruz

5. Jeb Bush

6. John Kasich

7. Carly Fiorina

8. Rand Paul

 

7 October Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Oct 07, 2015 at 1:24 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 7 October 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive GOP candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Donald Trump

2. Ben Carson

3. Marco Rubio

4. Carly Fiorina

5. Jeb Bush

6. Ted Cruz

7. John Kasich

8. Mike Huckabee

9. Chris Christie

10. Rand Paul

11. Bobby Jindal

12. Rick Santorum

13. Lindsey Graham

14. George Pataki

24 August Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Aug 24, 2015 at 10:46 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 24 August 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Donald Trump

2. Jeb Bush

3. Ben Carson

4. Scott Walker

5. Marco Rubio

6. Ted Cruz

7. Carly Fiorina

8. Mike Huckabee

9. John Kasich

10. Chris Christie

11. Rand Paul

12. Bobby Jindal

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. George Pataki

16. Rick Perry

10 August Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Aug 10, 2015 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 10 August 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Scott Walker

3. Donald Trump

4. Ben Carson

5. Marco Rubio

6. Ted Cruz

7. Carly Fiorina

8. Mike Huckabee

9. John Kasich

10. Chris Christie

11. Rand Paul

12. Rick Perry

13. Bobby Jindal

14. Rick Santorum

15. Lindsey Graham

16. George Pataki

24 July Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jul 24, 2015 at 9:52 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 24 July 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Marco Rubio

3. Donald Trump

4. Scott Walker

5. Ben Carson

6. John Kasich

7. Rand Paul

8. Mike Huckabee

9. Carly Fiorina

10. Ted Cruz

11. George Pataki

12. Bobby Jindal

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. Chris Christie

16. Rick Perry

17 July Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jul 17, 2015 at 3:36 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 17 July 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Marco Rubio

3. Donald Trump

4. Scott Walker

5. Rand Paul

6. John Kasich

7. Mike Huckabee

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ted Cruz

10. George Pataki

11. Bobby Jindal

12. Ben Carson

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. Chris Christie

16. Rick Perry

5 July Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jul 04, 2015 at 10:35 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 1 July 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Marco Rubio

3. Scott Walker

4. Rand Paul

5. John Kasich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. Donald Trump

8. George Pataki

9. Carly Fiorina

10. Ted Cruz

11. Bobby Jindal

12. Ben Carson

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. Chris Christie

16. Rick Perry

1 July Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jul 01, 2015 at 2:00 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 1 July 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Marco Rubio

3. Scott Walker

4. Rand Paul

5. John Kasich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. George Pataki

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ted Cruz

10. Donald Trump

11. Bobby Jindal

12. Ben Carson

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. Chris Christie

16. Rick Perry

24 June Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jun 24, 2015 at 9:47 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 24 June 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Marco Rubio

3. Jeb Bush

4. Rand Paul

5. John Kasich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. George Pataki

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ted Cruz

10. Donald Trump

11. Bobby Jindal

12. Ben Carson

13. Rick Santorum

14. Lindsey Graham

15. Chris Christie

16. Rick Perry

23 June Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jun 23, 2015 at 4:29 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 23 June 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Marco Rubio

3. Jeb Bush

4. Rand Paul

5. John Kasich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. George Pataki

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ted Cruz

10. Donald Trump

11. Ben Carson

12. Rick Santorum

13. Lindsey Graham

14. Chris Christie

15. Rick Perry

22 June Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jun 21, 2015 at 1:51 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 22 June 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Marco Rubio

3. Jeb Bush

4. Rand Paul

5. John Kasich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. George Pataki

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ted Cruz

10. Ben Carson

11. Rick Santorum

12. Lindsey Graham

13. Chris Christie

14. Donald Trump

15. Rick Perry

15 June Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jun 14, 2015 at 10:26 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 15 June 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Jeb Bush

3. Marco Rubio

4. Rand Paul

5. John Kasich

6. Mike Huckabee

7. George Pataki

8. Ted Cruz

9. Rick Santorum

10. Carly Fiorina

11. Lindsey Graham

12. Ben Carson

13. Chris Christie

14. Donald Trump

15. Rick Perry

3 June Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jun 03, 2015 at 3:10 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 3 June 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Jeb Bush

3. Rand Paul

4. Marco Rubio

5. Mike Huckabee

6. John Kasich

7. Ted Cruz

8. Rick Santorum

9. Lindsey Graham

10. Carly Fiorina

11. Ben Carson

12. Chris Christie

13. Donald Trump

14. Rick Perry

2 June Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates

Posted Jun 02, 2015 at 4:35 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 2 June 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Jeb Bush

3. Rand Paul

4. Marco Rubio

5. Mike Huckabee

6. John Kasich

7. Ted Cruz

8. Rick Santorum

9. Lindsey Graham

10. Carly Fiorina

11. Ben Carson

12. Chris Christie

13. Rick Perry

28 May Ranking: GOP Presidential Nomination

Posted May 28, 2015 at 9:45 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 28 May 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Jeb Bush

3. Marco Rubio

4. Rand Paul

5. Mike Huckabee

6. John Kasich

7. Ted Cruz

8. Rick Santorum

9. Carly Fiorina

10. Ben Carson

11. Chris Christie

12. Rick Perry

New PollTrack Ranking Of Candidates for GOP Nomination For President

Posted May 19, 2015 at 11:40 AM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 12 May 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Jeb Bush

3. Marco Rubio

4. Rand Paul

5. Mike Huckabee

6. John Kasich

7. Ted Cruz

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ben Carson

10. Chris Christie

11. Rick Santorum

12. Rick Perry

12 May 2015: PollTrack's Ranking of 2016 GOP Presidential Nomination Fight

Posted May 12, 2015 at 4:03 PM by Maurice Berger

Here is PollTrack's 12 May 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Scott Walker

2. Jeb Bush

3. Rand Paul

4. Marco Rubio

5. Mike Huckabee

6. John Kasich

7. Ted Cruz

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ben Carson

10. Chris Christie

11. Rick Santorum

12. Rick Perry

11 May 2015: GOP Nomination Presidential Ranking 2016

Posted May 11, 2015 at 5:50 PM by Maurice Berger

Over the next few months, PollTrack will be ranking the GOP contenders for the 2016 Republican nomination for president.These rankings will consider several factors, including public opinion polls, internal polls (when available), the ups and downs of the news cycle, conditions on the ground, and electoral history.


Here is PollTrack's May 2015 ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Scott Walker

3. Rand Paul

4. Marco Rubio

5. Mike Huckabee

6. John Kasich

7. Ted Cruz

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Ben Carson

10. Chris Christie

11. Rick Santorum

12. Rick Perry

 

Reading The Tea Leaves: 2016 GOP Nomination Rankings

Posted May 06, 2015 at 9:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Over the next few months, PollTrack will be ranking the GOP contenders for the 2016 Republican nomination for president.These rankings will consider several factors, including public opinion polls, internal polls (when available), the ups and downs of the news cycle, conditions on the ground, and electoral history.


Here is PollTrack's first ranking of announced and presumptive candidates, from most to least likely to prevail:

1. Jeb Bush

2. Scott Walker

3. Rand Paul

4. Marco Rubio

5. Mike Huckabee

6. Ted Cruz

7. Carly Fiorina

8. John Kasich

9. Ben Carson

10. Chris Christie

11. Rick Santorum

12. Rick Perry

 

PollTrack: Counting Down to 2016

Posted Nov 14, 2014 at 7:11 PM by Maurice Berger

In the coming weeks, as early polling data come in, PollTrack will begin its analysis of Election 2016. Will Hillary Clinton face a credible challenge for the Democratic nomination? Which Republicans will throw their hat into the ring. Stay tuned.

Mitt Romney In 2016?

Posted Jul 31, 2014 at 8:39 AM by Maurice Berger

In polls conducted in the early primary states of South Carolina, New Hampshire and Iowa, Vox Populi Polling reports that more than 70% of GOP primary voters would be open to a Mitt Romney presidential run in 2016.

GOP Conservatives Cool on Bush in 2016

Posted May 01, 2014 at 11:38 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Economist/YouGov reports that only 18% of self-identified conservatives want Jeb Bush to run for president in 2016. Overall, "26% of Republicans want Bush to run. That puts him behind Paul, at 36%, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 30%. Some 35% of Republicans do not want Bush to run."

Majority of Americans Skeptical Of Christie

Posted Mar 20, 2014 at 11:12 PM by Maurice Berger

A national poll by Bloomberg reports that 63% of Americans say they don't believe Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's "claims that he knew nothing of a plan by his top aides to create a politically motivated traffic jam."

Is Chris Christie The 2016 Front-runner?

Posted Dec 23, 2013 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that New Jersey GOP Governor Chris Christie now leads Hillary Clinton, and all other possible Democratic candidates, in hypothetical match-ups. According to the poll, Christie leads Clinton, 45% to 42%, "because he's viewed favorably across party lines. He's at 48/26 with Republicans, 46/28 with independents, and 38/36 with Democrats."     

2016 Prrsidential Race: Who Do Iowans Prefer?

Posted Dec 17, 2013 at 8:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll out from the Des Moines Register reports that Rep. Paul Ryan "is wildly popular here with a 73% favorable rating, a surprise finding that reveals he's at the forefront of potential 2016 GOP presidential candidates in the nation's kickoff voting state." The Democratic horse race shows an even clearer favorite in a state that registers its preferences in the party nominating process earlier than any other: Ryans' popularity "isn't as striking as the overwhelming affinity Iowa Democrats have for Hillary Clinton, with 89% saying they have a positive opinion of her. Just 7% of voting-age Democrats have a negative impression the former U.S. secretary of state and U.S. senator from New York."

Election 2016: Is Jindal's Star Dimming?

Posted Apr 09, 2013 at 8:54 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Southern Media & Opinion Research in Louisiana reports that Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal's approval rating plummeted from from 51% in October to just under 38% in March.
With the poll also reporting that President Obama is now more popular than Jindal in the state, are the governor's prospects for the 206 GOP presidential nomination dimming?

The Demographics Of The President's Approval Numbers

Posted Apr 17, 2012 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup has a fascinating demographic snapshot of the president's approval rating, now at 47%. Significantly, he holds a solid majority from his own party (84%), and does extremely well with African American (88%) and Hispanic voters (61%). The demographic breakdown also suggest a few red flags for the President's reelection effort: only 36% of white voters approve of his performance, he polls no better than 38% with voters over the age of 65%, and--perhaps most significantly--his standing among independents hovers at 40%. The good news for the administration: approval numbers do not always reflect voter sentiment in a general election. Obama's fares much better with independents, for example, when pitted against his likely GOP challenger, Mitt Romney. Stay tuned.

 

53%
-5
49%
+4
38%
-1
36%
-2
71%
+1
88%
-
61%
+7
84%
-
40%
-2
11%
-2

Chris Christie Less Popular In Home State

Posted Apr 12, 2012 at 9:05 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite the earlier urging of some GOP insiders, Chris Cristie declined to enter the Republican nomination race for president. A new poll, Rutgers-Eagleton reports that while the New Jersey governor's favorability rating show little change, 46% to 42%, voters are more likely to describe him as "stubborn, arrogant and self-centered than they were six months ago." Over the past six months, those who describe him as "arrogant" increased by 15%. The terms "self-centered" and "bully" each gained 11%, "stubborn" increased by 12% and "angry" by 11%.

Romney Swamping His Challengers In New York

Posted Apr 10, 2012 at 9:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in New York reports that Mitt Romney is crushing his nearest rival, Rick Santorum, among GOP primary voters, 54% to 21%, with Newt Gingrich at 9% and Ron Paul at 8%.

Romney Nows Leads In Pennsylvania

Posted Apr 09, 2012 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite the make or break status of Pennsylvania for its former GOP Senator, Rick Santorum, a new Public Policy Polling survey in the state reports that Mitt Romney now now leads Rick Santorum, 42% to 37%, with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. Last month, Romney was behind in the state, 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum's dropped 6% points from 43% to 37%.

 

Romney Now Ahead In PA

Posted Apr 06, 2012 at 9:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Public Policy Polling in Pennsylvania reports that Mitt Romney is now leading Rick Santorum, 42% to 37%, with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%.

Today Map: President Obama Over 270 EVs

Posted Apr 05, 2012 at 8:39 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack has made substantive changes to Today's Map that suggest that if the election were held today, President Obama would secure enough electoral votes to achieve victory. Much can change between now and November, but given the improvement in the President's numbers over the past six months, this change represents significant movement

Romney Way Ahead In Maryland

Posted Apr 03, 2012 at 12:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A Public Policy Polling survey suggests that Mitt Romney is way head in today's Maryland GOP primary. Romney leads with 52%, followed by Rick Santorum at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 10% and Ron Paul at 9%.

Romney Ahead In Wisconsin Primary

Posted Apr 02, 2012 at 2:04 AM by Maurice Berger

Mitt Romney holds a significant lead over Rick Santorumin tomorrow's Wisconsin GOP primary according to a new Rasmussen survey. The poll reports that Romney leads Santorum, 44% to 34%, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul each at 7%.

Santorum's Support Drops In Pennsylvania

Posted Mar 29, 2012 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania reports that Rick 's once healthy lead in his home state over Mitt Romney, has diminished to a few percentage points, 30% to 28%.

Romney Way Up In Wisconsin

Posted Mar 27, 2012 at 2:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Rasmussen in Wisconsin finds Mitt Romney with a huge lead over Rick Santorum in the 3 April Republican presidential primary, 46% to 33%, followed by Ron Paul at 8% and Newt Gingrich at 7%.

Romney Holds Huge Lead In California Primary

Posted Mar 26, 2012 at 12:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times in California reports that Mitt Romney holds a whopping +19% lead over Rick Santorum in the GOP presidential race, at 42% to 23%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12% and Ron Paul at 10%.

Santorum Headed For Louisiana Win

Posted Mar 23, 2012 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen in Louisiana reports that Rick Santorum now hold a sizable lead over Mitt Romney in tomorrow's primary, 43% to 31%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 16% and Ron Paul at 5%.

 

Romney, Santorum Tie As Gingrich Voters' Second Choice

Posted Mar 20, 2012 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Gallup, "Republican voters who prefer Newt Gingrich for the party's 2012 presidential nomination are as likely to name Mitt Romney as their second choice as they are to name Rick Santorum, suggesting the race would not tilt in Santorum's favor if Gingrich dropped out." Here is Gallup's chart:

 

Gingrich Supporters' Second Choice for the Republican Nomination

Romney Ahead In Illinois Primary

Posted Mar 19, 2012 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Two Polls suggest a Romney victory in tomorrow's Illinois primary. We Ask America reports that Romney leads the race with 37%, followed by Rick Santorum at 31%, Newt Gingrich at 14% and Ron Paul at 8%. Rasmussen shows a wider advantage for Romney, who leads with 41%, followed by Santorum at 32%, Gingrich at 14% and Paul at 7%.

Santorum Ahead In Texas

Posted Mar 16, 2012 at 12:40 AM by Maurice Berger

In the state with the second biggest pool of GOP delegates--Texas--the momentum appears to be shifting away from Mitt Romney. A newly released  Wilson Perkins Allen survey reports that Rick Santorum now leads the 29 May Republican presidential contest with 35%, followed by Mitt Romney at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 20% and Ron Paul at 8%.

Conflicting Polls In Mississippi GOP Primary

Posted Mar 13, 2012 at 12:17 AM by Maurice Berger

Two new polls suggest conflicting outcomes in Mississippi's upcoming GOP primary: a poll by American Research Group shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential primary with 35%, followed by Mitt Romney at 31%, Rick Santorum at 20%, and Ron Paul at 7%. But Rasmussen repoorts a different result, with Romney leading at 35%, Santorum and Gingrich both at 27% and Paul way back at 6%.

Gingrich Ahead In Alabama

Posted Mar 11, 2012 at 11:55 PM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Alabama State University reports that Newt Gingrich has jumped into the lead in Alabama's GOP presidential race with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 20% and Rick Santorum at 17%. Another, earlier, poll by Rasmussen shows a much closer race, with Newt Gingrich at 30%, followed by Rick Santorum at 29%, Mitt Romney at 28% and Ron Paul at 7%.

President Obama Way Ahead With Hispanic Voters

Posted Mar 09, 2012 at 3:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A new national Fox News Latino poll of likely Latino voters reports that "73% approve of Obama’s performance in office, with over half those questioned looking favorably upon his handling of the healthcare debate and the economy, at 66% and 58% respectively. . . . the poll shows that the overwhelming choice among likely Latino voters is President Obama. In head-to-head match-ups none of the GOP candidates would garner more than 14 percent of the Latino vote come November." If these numbers can be sustained, PollTrack believes that it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for a GOP candidate to make up the difference. The poll is very good news for the President's reelection effort and a warning to Republicans.

Super Tuesday Updates

Posted Mar 05, 2012 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

Here are polling updates from PollTrack on the upcoming GOP primary and causes race for tomorrow's Super Tuesday sweep.

Georgia: Landmark/Rosetta Stone shows a possible Newt Gingrich romp in the state, with the former house speaker way ahead of the GOP presidential field in his home state with 42%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Rick Santorum at 16% and Ron Paul at 5%. Interestingly, YouGov show a much closer race, with Gingrich at 32%, followed by Romney at 27%, Santorum at 17% and Paul at 10%

Massachusetts: According to YouGov, it's a Romney romp in the former governor's home state. Romney leads with 56%, followed by Santorum at 16%, Gingrich at 5% and Paul at 5%.

Ohio: In the all important--and perhaps make or break race for Rick Santorum--in Ohio, a survey by NBC News/Marist reports that Santorum is just ahead of Romney among GOP primary voters, 34% to 32%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at 13%.

Oklahoma: American Research Group reports that Santorum leads the GOP presidential field in next week's primary with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 26%, Newt Gingrich at 22%, and Ron Paul at 9%.

Tennessee: Rasmussen survey finds Santorum just ahead of  Romney, 34% to 30%, with Newt Gingrich at 18% and Ron Paul at 8%. Similarly, American Research Group shows Santorum leading Romney, 35% to 31%, with Gingrich at 20% and Paul at 9%.

Tennessee GOP Primary: Santorum Way Ahead

Posted Mar 01, 2012 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Vanderbilt University in Tennessee reports that Rick Santorum lead the GOP presidential primary by a significant +16% margin over Mitt Romney, 33% to 17%, followed by Ron Paul at 13% and Newt Gingrich at 10%.

Georgia GOP Primary: Gingrich In The Lead

Posted Feb 29, 2012 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Landmark/Rosetta Stone poll in Georgia reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable, a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum, 38% to 25%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19% and Ron Paul at 4%.

Michigan GOP Primary: Romney Win?

Posted Feb 28, 2012 at 2:13 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of polling in today's Michigan GOP presidential primary--four polls released on Monday are included--suggest a very close race, with Mitt Romney the very slight favorite over Rick Santorum. Our poll average in Michigan places Romney at 37.5% over Santorum, with 35.8% Both Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are far behind, with well under 15% each. Polling in the field last night, however, shows overnight momentum by Santorum. With a scant 1.5% lead in our aggregate, the race appears VERY close with the potential for a Santorum upset.

 

         

Romney Leading In Tomorrow's GOP Primary In Arizona

Posted Feb 27, 2012 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey from American Research Group reports that Mitt Romney maintains a slim lead in the Arizona GOP primary at 39%, followed by Rick Santorum at 35%, Newt Gingrich at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%.

 

Romney Ahead In Michigan

Posted Feb 24, 2012 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

Two new polls out this morning show that Mitt Romney has regained the lead over Rick Santorum in the Michigan GOP primary. A poll by Mitchell/Rosetta Stone irepoorts that has Romney with a small lead over Santorum,, 36% to 33%, with Ron Paul at 12% and Newt Gingrich at 9%. Another 11% are still undecided. And Rasmussen shows Romney leading Santorum by six points, 40% to 36%. According to the former survey, "Romney has made big inroads with conservatives over the past ten days: 16% lead among Tea Party voters has been erased and he is now tied with them; his 16% lead with Evangelical Christians has now been cut in half to 8%, and Santorums 31% lead with self-identified conservatives has now been cut to 13%."

GOP Interest In Election Ebbing

Posted Feb 23, 2012 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

In what may be a serious problem for GOP prospects in November, a new survey by Associated Press-GfK reports that interest in the Republican presidential race is on the wane: Just 40% of Republicans say they have a great deal of interest in following the contest, compared with 48% in December. Just as ominous for the GOP, the poll finds that a mere 23% are "strongly satisfied" with the field and 40% said they are dissatisfied with the candidates running.

Arizona Primary: Romney Comfortably Ahead

Posted Feb 22, 2012 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by We Ask America in Arizona reports that Mitt Romney is leading in next week's GOP presidential primary with 37%, followed by Rick Santorum at 27%, Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at 8%.

Today's Map: Iowa Now Leaning Republican

Posted Feb 21, 2012 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger

Although President Obama's standing in many of the swing states--including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio--have show improvement in recent weeks, his standing in one state, Iowa, is actually in decline. A poll by the Des Moines Register in Iowa shows the president trailing three of the four Republican candidates in head-to-head match-ups: Ron Paul, who leads Obama by +7%, 49% to 42%. Rick Santorum leads 48% to 44%. Mitt Romney leads Obama 46% to 44%. The president defeats only Newt Gingrich, 51% to 37%. PollTrack moves Iowa on Today's Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Republican.

Who Is Leading In Michigan GOP Primary?

Posted Feb 20, 2012 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

Who is leading in the Michigan GOP primary. Recent polling remain somewhat inconclusive. A new survey by American Research Group reports that Rick Santorum leads the state's GOP presidential primary with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 32%, Ron Paul at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 10%. Another poll, by Inside Michigan Politics, reports a much closer race, with Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum tied with 33% each, followed by Ron Paul at 7% and Newt Gingrich at 5%. Stay tuned to PollTrack this week for the latest polling in what could be a make or break state for the two leading candidates.

Santorum Leads In Michigan

Posted Feb 17, 2012 at 2:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Detroit News in Michigan reports that Rick Santorum now leads Mitt Romney by +4%--34% to 30%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12% and Ron Paul 9%.

Santorum Ahead In Ohio GOP Primary

Posted Feb 15, 2012 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in Ohio reports that Rick Santorum now leads Mitt Romney among likely GOP primary voters, 36% to 29%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20% and Ron Paul at 9%.

Election 2012: Santorum New front Runner?

Posted Feb 14, 2012 at 2:11 AM by Maurice Berger

A slew of new polls out over the weekend suggest the the race for the GOP nomination for president has a new frontrunner: Rick Santorum. PollTrack also notes that these national polls are also backed up by local state polls also showing Santorum in the lead, such as in Michigan and Pennsylvania, states where Romney had been leading as little as three weeks ago. On the natiional front, a just released survey by New York Times/CBS News reports that Santorum is surging among Republican primary voters nationwide, "lifted by support among conservatives, evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporters." In the poll, Santorum leads with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 27%, Ron Paul at 12% and Newt Gingrich at 10%.

Santorum's Support Jumps In PA

Posted Feb 13, 2012 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV in Pennsylvania reports that  Rick Santorum's support has more than doubled in his home state, though its primary is more than two months away. Santorum now leads with 30% (six weeks ago he was at 14%), followed by Romney at 29% and Newt Gingrich at 13%.

Romney Ahead In Michigan GOP Primary

Posted Feb 10, 2012 at 12:50 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Mitchell Research in Michigan reports that Mitt Romney holds a comfortable lead in the GOP primary race with 31%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 16%, Rick Santorum at 15% and Ron Paul at 15%. Since the poll was conducted before Romney lost contests in three states earlier this week, PollTrack will be following this race closely in the next few days.

Romney Way Up In Colorado Caucuses

Posted Feb 07, 2012 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Colorado finds Mitt Romney primed for another big win in today's caucuses. The poll reports that Romney is ahead of the pack with 40%, followed by Rick Santorum at 26%, Newt Gingrich at 18% and Ron Paul at 12%.

Minnesota Caucuses: Tight Race

Posted Feb 06, 2012 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey by Public Policy Polling in Minnesota reports a very close race heading into Tuesday's caucuses. Rick Santorum bests Mitt Romney, by a mere +2%, 29% to 27%, with Newt Gingrich at 22% and Ron Paul at 19%.

GOP Nomination: The Contests In February

Posted Feb 01, 2012 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

Mitt Romney's substantial victory in yesterday's Florida primary may give him a significant advantage in the GOP presidential nomination contest, but many more primaries and caucuses lie ahead for the Republican field. Here's a breakdown for February:

 

  • Nevada caucuses - February 4
  • Maine caucuses - February 4-11
  • Minnesota caucuses - February 7
  • Missouri primary - February 7
  • Colorado caucuses - February 7
  • Arizona primary - February 28
  • Michigan primary - February 29

Romney More Electable Against President Obama?

Posted Jan 31, 2012 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A new USAToday/Gallup survey of the dozen states likely to determine the outcome of November's election--Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin--concludes that Mitt Romney is the "GOP contender with the best chance of denying Obama a second term." The poll reports that "in a head-to-head race, Romney leads Obama by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 48%-47% . . . But Obama leads Gingrich, 54%-40%. The president's standing against him has risen nine points since early December; Gingrich has fallen by eight. Gingrich fares less well than Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who trails Obama by seven points, 50%-43%, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who also trails by seven points, 51%-44%."

Florida GOP Primary: Likely Romney Win

Posted Jan 30, 2012 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's analysis of half-dozen polls released over the past few days in the GOP presidential primary in Florida suggest a likely win for Mitt Romney. Romney's aggregate lead over his closes competitor, Newt Gingrich, as of Sunday evening is +11.3%--a considerable advantage, with Romney leading in all six polls (with margins ranging from +8% to +16%.

CNN-TIME: Romney With Slight Lead In Florida

Posted Jan 26, 2012 at 2:24 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by CNN-Time in Florida reports a slight lead for Mitt Romney, who now comes in at 36%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 34%, Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%. According to the poll, "Romney leads Gingrich among female and white voters, voters over 50, and those with a college degree... Gingrich holds leads among men, Tea Party voters, self-identified conservatives -- among whom he boasts a 10-point advantage -- and born-again Christians. His fans also appear to be more committed than Romney's."

Gingrich Ahead In Florida

Posted Jan 25, 2012 at 12:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Florida reports that Newt Gingrich now leads Mitt Romney by five points in the GOP presidential race, 38% to 33%, followed by Rick Santorum at 13% and Ron Paul at 10%. Significantly, Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points.

Another Poll Shows Gingrich With Florida Lead

Posted Jan 24, 2012 at 1:04 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll out from Rasmussen in Florida shows Newt Gingrich now ahead in the GOP presidential race with 41%, followed by Mitt Romney at 32%, Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 8%.

Insider Advantage Survey: Gingrich Ahead In Florida

Posted Jan 23, 2012 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

In another sign that the Romney campaign is ion trouble, a new survey by Insider Advantage reports that Newt Gingrich is ahead in the Florida GOP presidential primary. After weeks of leading significantly in the polls in the state, Romney now trails Gingrichby eight points in Florida, according to the poll conducted the day after the former House speaker won the South Carolina primary According Insider Advantage poll, Gingrich is at 34%, Romney 26%, Ron Paul 13% and former Rick Santorum is last at 11%.

South Carolina: Gingrich In The Lead

Posted Jan 20, 2012 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

After a month with a clear advantage in South Carolina, four new polls suggest that Mitt Romney may now be the underdog in the state's upcoming GOP presidential primary.

A survey by American Research Group reports that Newt Gingrich now leads, with 33% closely followed by Mitt Romney 32%, Ron Paul 19%, Rick Santorum 9%, Rick Perry 4%.

InsiderAdvantage shows Gingrich leading with 32%, followed by Romney at 29%, Paul at 15%, Santorum at 11%, and Rick Perry far behind at 3%.

We Ask America reports that Gingrich leads the GOP field with 32%, followed by Mitt Romney at 28%, Ron Paul at 13%, Rick Santorum at 9%, Rick Perry at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

And a survey by Public Policy Polling survey show Gingrich with 35%, Romney with 29%, and Paul and Santorum each tied for third at 15%.

PollTrack notes that Perry's departure from the race could also help Gingrich, removing as it does one less conservative alternative to Romney.

Obama Leads Romney In General Election Match Up

Posted Jan 19, 2012 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

Good news for President Obama: according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling, the President leads Mitt Romney in a general election match, at 49% to 44% nationally. This is Obama's best showing in months, an increase in support due, in part, to the steep decline of Romney's favorable rating, with only 35% rating him favorably while 53% have a negative opinion of him.

Romney Ahead In Florida By Wide Margin

Posted Jan 18, 2012 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Sunshine State News in Florida reports that Mitt Romney leads by a very wide margin in the upcoming primary for the GOP presidential nomination. According to the poll, Romney leads with 46%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Rick Santorum at 12% and Ron Paul at 9%. Similarly,. A new Public Policy Polling survey in the state shows Romney in the lead at 41%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 26%, Rick Santorum at 11%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1% rounding out the field.

Three Polls Show Romney With Lead In SC Primary

Posted Jan 17, 2012 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

Three new polls show Mitt Romney with a significant lead in next Saturday's South Carolina GOP presidential primary:

InsiderAdvantage: Romney is at 32%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 21%, Ron Paul at 14%, Rick Santorum at 13%, Jon Huntsman at 6% and Rick Perry at 5%.

Reuters/Ipsos Romney leads with 37%, followed by Ron Paul at Rick Santorum at 16% and Newt Gingrich dropping back to 16%.

Frontier Strategy: Romney is at with 32%, followed by Gingrich at 23%, Santorum at 14%, Paul at 10%, Perry at 6% and Huntsman at 4%.

Romney Pulls Away Nationally

Posted Jan 16, 2012 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Two new polls show Mitt Romney pull way from the pack in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. A survey from Fox News reports that Romney leads with 40%, followed by Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 14%, Ron Paul at 13%, Rick Perry at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 5%. Gallup daily tracking similarly reports that Romney is at 37%, Santorum at 14%, Gingrich at 13%, Paul at 12%, Perry at 5% and Hunstman at 3%.

 

 

Election 2012: Romney With Huge Lead In Florida

Posted Jan 13, 2012 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

Even if the South Carolina proves to be close--or even if current frontrunner Mitt Romney loses--a new Rasmussen survey in Florida suggests that Florida may contribute to his overall standing as GOP nomination leader. According to the poll, Romney leads with 41%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 19%, Rick Santorum at 15%, Ron Paul at 9% and Jon Hunstman at 5%.

Election 2012: Romney Holds Slight Lead In SC

Posted Jan 12, 2012 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Tuesday--and therefore before the results of the New Hampshire primary--Mitt Romney continues to hold a very modest lead in South Carolina, according to two polls: A survey by We Ask America reports that Mitt Romney leads the GOP presidential field with 26%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 21%, Rick Santorum at 13%, Ron Paul at 8%, Rick Perry at 5% and John Hunstman at 4%. Another 22% are still undecided. A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Romney at 27%, Gingrich at 23%, Santorum at 18%, Ron Paul at 8%, Rick Perry at 7% and Jon Huntsman at 4%.

Election 2012: Romney Now Ahead In Florida

Posted Jan 11, 2012 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Quinnipiac in Florida reports that Mitt Romney is now leading the GOP presidential race with 36%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 24%, Rick Santorum at 16%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. With more than half of all voters saying they could still change their mind, the race may still be fluid.

Election 2012: Romney Ahead In South Carolina

Posted Jan 10, 2012 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

Polling in recent days has shown surprising strength for Mitt Romney in the relative conservative state of South Carolina. A new Public Policy Polling survey in the state reports that Mitt Romney holds a modest lead, with 30%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 23%, Rick Santorum at 19%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1%.

Romney Presumptive Leader In New Hapshire, But By How Much?

Posted Jan 09, 2012 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

With a slew of new polls showing Romney ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack wonders by how much and who will be his closest challenger. A new poll from Public Policy Polling reports that Mitt Romney has a substantial lead in the Republican presidential race with 35%, followed by Ron Paul at 18%, Jon Huntsman at 16%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Rick Santorum at 11%, Buddy Roemer at 3% and Rick Perry at 1%. A new survey by WMUR/UNH reports an even great for Romney, with 41%, followed by Paul at 17%, Huntsman at 11%, Santorum at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, Rick Perry at 1% and Buddy Roemer at 1%. But a Suffolk University tracking poll, released over the weekend, shows Mitt Romney's support dipping for the fourth day in a row. By Sunday, for example, Romney dropped another 4 points overnight to 35%, followed by Ron Paul at 20%, Jon Hunstman at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8% and Rick Perry at 1%. Another 15% remain undecided.

With some polls showing Huntsman gaining momentum (but Santorum loosing steam), the race could end with a closer result than a simple Romney walk. New Hampshire is known for its surprises: Hillary Clinton won the primary in 2008, although Barack Obama came into election day with a lead in virtually every poll. While PollTrack still believes Romney--thus moving him considerably closer to the nomination--will win the New Hampshire Primary, the depth and intensity of his win remains uncertain.

Election 2012: Another Poll Shows Big Lead For Romney In NH

Posted Jan 06, 2012 at 2:04 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll in New Hampshire, this one by Suffolk University, reports that Mitt Romney holds a huge lead, now at 41%, in the GOP presidential primary, followed by Ron Paul at 18%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Jon Huntsman at 7% and Rick Perry at 1%.

Election 2012: Romney With Commading Lead In New Hampshire

Posted Jan 04, 2012 at 2:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A number of polls in recent days report a commanding lead for Mitt Romney in the New Hampshire. A new poll by Suffolk tracking, for example, shows Romney leading with 43%, followed by Ron Paul at 17%, Jon Huntsman at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 8%. This poll is consistent with several others released over the past week. Given the extreme closeness of Romney's victory in Iowa yesterday, PollTrack will be watching New Hampshire very closely over the next six days for signs of weakening in Romney's position.

Polls Report Tight Iowa Race, With Romney in The Lead

Posted Jan 02, 2012 at 4:29 PM by Maurice Berger

A survey in Iowa from Public Policy Polling survey, conducted Saturday and Sunday, reports a virtual three-way tie in advance of the Iowa caucuses. In the poll, Ron Paul leads with 20 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 19 percent and Rick Santorum at 18 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll in Iowa shows Romney with an insignificant lead; he's at 23%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 18%, Newt Gingrich at 16%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. And a survey by American Research Group shows a slightly larger lead for Romney, with 22%, followed by Paul at 17%, Santorum at 16% and Gingrich at 15%.

Romney, Paul Top Iowa Poll, With Santorum Coming On Strong

Posted Jan 02, 2012 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey from the highly respect--and often very accurate--Des Moines Register reports that Mitt Romney now leads with 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7%. The bog news may well be Santorum's surprisingly strong showing: "If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21%, pushing Paul to third, at 18%. Romney remains the same, at 24%."

Election 2012: Close Race In Iowa?

Posted Dec 30, 2011 at 2:33 AM by Maurice Berger

A series of new polls suggests that the race to win the GOP Iowa Caucus may indeed be very close. A survey by InsiderAdvantage reports that the race is deadlocked, with Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul tied at 17% support each. Rick Santorum, whose numbers in Iowa have been rising in recent days, comes in at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 12%, Rick Perry at 11% and Jon Huntsman at 3%. Two other polls paint a similar picture of a very close race: American Research Group poll shows Romney leading with 22%, followed by Gingrich at 17%, Paul at 16% and Santorum at 11%; Rasmussen reports that Romney edgies Paul, 23% to 22%, with Santorum at 16% and Gingrich and Perry at 13% each.

PPP Survey: Paul Leads In Iowa

Posted Dec 28, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Ron Paul maintains a modest lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 24% to 20%, with Newt Gingrich in third place at 13%. Michele Bachmann comes in at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Gallup Tracking: Gingrich Continues To Hold slight National Lead

Posted Dec 27, 2011 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

According to the latest tracking poll from Gallup Newt Gingrich continues to hold a slight lead nationally among Republican voters with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Santorum at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 1%. Factoring in other polls, PollTrack now believes that Gingrich's advantage nationally will not hold through the Iowa caucus on 8 January. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Three GOP Candidates Bunched At The Top

Posted Dec 26, 2011 at 2:21 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll released by American Research Group in Iowa reports a crowded field at top, with three candidates virtually tied for the lead: Ron Paul leads the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 20% and Newt Gingrich at 19%. As for the rest, they're all in the singles digits, with Rick Perry coming in at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 6% and Rick Santorum at 4%.

Election 2012: Iowa Too Close To Call

Posted Dec 22, 2011 at 3:13 AM by Maurice Berger

With Newt Gingrich the newest GOP contender to implode in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, the race for the Iowa caucus is now too close to call. A poll from We Ask America reports a very competitive race the Iowa. Ron Paul leads with 19%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Gingrich at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 11%, Rick Santorum at 9% and Jon Huntsman at 4%. Another poll, this one from Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG shows a very close race for the top two contenders--Paul with 28%, followed by Gingrich at 25%--with Romney further behind at 18%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

Election 2012: Gingrich Leads In CA, PA, and VA

Posted Dec 20, 2011 at 3:11 AM by Maurice Berger

In case you're wonderful about other GOP primary states, here a breakdown of the standing of the GOP field in several of the larger states. In CA, PA, and VA, at least, Gingrich appears to be in the lead. Given the erosion of Gingrich's support in most recent polling, however, PollTrack suggests that these results should be view with a good degree of skepticism. In any case, Newt Gingrich leads by considerable margins in the key states:

CALIFORNIA (Public Policy Institute): Gingrich 33%, Romney 25%, Paul 9%, Bachmann 7%, Perry 4%, Santorum 4% and Huntsman 2%.

PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Polling and Research):  Gingrich 8%, Bachmann 6%, and Perry 2%.

VIRGINIA (Public Policy Polling survey): Gingrich 41%, Romney 15%, Perry 8%, Bachmann 8%, Santorum 6%, Paul 6% and Huntsman 3%.

 

PollTrack: Storm Warning Ahead For Gingrich

Posted Dec 19, 2011 at 1:45 AM by Maurice Berger

While a pronounced surge for Newt Gingrich in the contest for the 2012 GOP nomination has been evident in recent weeks, the latest polling, plus the internals of some upcoming surveys, suggests that Gingrich may have some tough sailing ahead. Gallup daily tracking, for example, indicates a sharp decline in Gingrich's support. Gingrich now leads Mitt Romney by only +4%--28% to 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Rick Perry at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. PollTrack has learned that several national surveys--as well as statewide polls--will report similar, relatively rapid, declines in Gingrich's standing in the GOP field. Stay tuned.

Is the Momentum Shifting Back To Romney

Posted Dec 16, 2011 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger

As his opponents continue to barrage Newt Gingrich with negative soundbites, can the ex-congressman maintain his momentum. A poll released last week in Iowa, by Rasmussen suggests that the tide may be turning once again the the quest for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. The poll now reports that Mitt Romney has recaptured back the lead with 23%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Ron Paul at 18%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 5%. Given the strong, religious-conservative bent of the Iowa Republican caucus-goers, this trend, if sustained, could be really big news.

Contradictory Polls In Michigan GOP Primary

Posted Dec 16, 2011 at 2:01 AM by Maurice Berger

Two polls just out. Two different readings of the relatively early (February 28) GOP presidential primary race in Michigan. A survey from MIRS reports that Romney leads with a double-digit lead in the state where he was raised, 48% to 33%. (Michele Bachmann comes in at 11% and Rick Perry at 7%). Another poll from Strategic National shows Newt Gingrich edging Mitt Romney in Michigan, where Romney spent his childhood, 31% to 29%. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Internal GOP Polls Show Gingrich Slipping in Iowa

Posted Dec 15, 2011 at 1:47 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Politico, "A week-long blitz of negative ads from Ron Paul and "Restore Our Future," the pro-Mitt Romney super PAC, have taken a toll on Newt Gingrich's standing in Iowa, internal numbers from the Rick Perry and Romney camps show, according to multiple sources. Sources didn't provide specific numbers on how far he's slipped, but it's perceptible in both camps' numbers, the sources said. Perry has been inching up, the sources said - in part thanks to his faith-based push but largely because of his controversial anti-gay rights ad, and the big question is whether he draws at all from Romney and pushes him down out of the top three finishers in the state. The person who is holding strong, according to the internal numbers, is Paul, who has a true shot of winning the caucuses, according to several Iowa Republican insiders surveying ground games and energy."

Given the volatility of the GOP race thus far, PollTrack believes that these internal numbers could well spell a decline of support for Gingrich as earlier idealization is giving way to the political reality of frontrunner now being bombarded with negative advertisements and soundbites, many generated by his opponents. Stay tuned.

Election 2012: Gingrich Up In SC and Florida

Posted Dec 14, 2011 at 1:14 AM by Maurice Berger

Two new polls by NBC News-Marist report that Newt Gingrich has considerable leads over Mitt Romney in South Carolina and Florida.
In South Carolina, Gingrich leads Romney by 42% to 23% (no other GOP candidate rises above single digits). In Florida, Gingrich leads Romney by 44% to 29%.

Election 2012: Gingrich Holds Big National Lead

Posted Dec 13, 2011 at 10:42 AM by Maurice Berger

Another survey, this one from Fox News reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Gingrich leads with 36%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick Santorum at 4%, and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Americans' Perception Of The GOP Field Grows Negative

Posted Dec 09, 2011 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey released by Pew Research reports that more Americans say their impression of the GOP field is worsening than improving: 31% of respondents say that their impression of the GOP field is getting worse as they learn more about the candidates, while 14% says it's getting better. Another 50% say their impression remains the same.

Election 2012: Gingrich Holds Significant Lead In Iowa

Posted Dec 08, 2011 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll in Iowa, this one by New York Times-CBS News reports that Newt Gingrich has pull into a significant lead over GOP rivals with 31%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at 16%, Rick Perry at 11% and the rest of the field in single digits.

Election 2012: Tea Party Support Drops Significantly

Posted Dec 07, 2011 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Pew Research reports that the Tea Party, since the 2010 midterm elections, "has not only lost support nationwide, but also in the congressional districts represented by members of the House Tea Party Caucus." The survey concludes: "More Americans say they disagree (27%) than agree (20%) with the Tea Party movement. A year ago, in the wake of the sweeping GOP gains in the midterm elections, the balance of opinion was just the opposite: 27% agreed and 22% disagreed with the Tea Party." Although this decline may have an effect on the general election next fall, PollTrack believes that Tea Party influence will still effect the GOP primaries, where a smaller number of voters overall intensify the power of the waning, but still active party.

Election 2012: Gingrich Takes the Lead In Iowa

Posted Dec 05, 2011 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

The impressive Des Moines Register Iowa Poll--they predicted Barack Obama's surge down to the percentage point in the Democratic caucus back in 2008--has some good news for Newt Gingrich: according to the survey, he has "carved out a clear lead" in the GOP presidential race with 25%, followed by Ron Paul at 18% and Mitt Romney at 16%. Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain come in at 8%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. Significantly, as pollster J. Ann Seltzer notes, "the results show Gingrich's ascendancy has the potential to grow . . . More respondents choose Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate. Together, 43% of likely caucusgoers pick him as first or second."

Similarly, a survey by NBC News/Marist in Iowa finds reports that Gingrich is now in the lead at with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Ron Paul at 17%, Herman Cain at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Election 2012: Polling In Florida Confirms Gingrich Ascendance

Posted Dec 01, 2011 at 1:27 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll in Florida (with results similar to two others released over the past few days) confirms Gingrich's ascendance in the national contest for the GOP presidential nomination. The survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential field with 47%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Herman Cain at 15%, Ron Paul at 5%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, Rick Perry at 2%, and Rick Santorum at 1%. Significantly, in light of PollTrack's Wednesday analysis of the status of the GOP campaign, the poll reports that the "biggest reason for Newt Gingrich's rise is that he's picked up the voters of Herman Cain and Rick Perry as their campaigns have fallen apart." PPP continues: "But these numbers make it pretty clear he's doing more than that--some of Mitt Romney's '25%' is starting to fall off and move toward Newt as well."

Another Poll Shows Romney Way Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted Nov 28, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by WMUR/UNH in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential race by a large margin: 42%. His closest rival, Newt Gingrich is at 15%, while Ron Paul comes in at 12% and Jon Huntsman at 8%.

Gingrich More Electable Than Romney?

Posted Nov 25, 2011 at 2:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by McClatchy-Marist reports that Newt Gingrich is the strongest Republican presidential candidate when matched head to head against President Obama. Obama leads Gingrich by two points, 47% to 45%; he bests Mitt Romney by 4 points, 49% to 44%; and Ron Paul by 8 points, 49% to 41%.

Romney Way Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted Nov 23, 2011 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Suffolk University/7NEWS in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney is way ahead of the GOP field with 41%, followed by Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 14%. In the only state where Jon Huntsman shows any strength, the former Utah governor comes in at 9%; Herman receives 8%, Rick Santorum 3%, Rick Perry 2%, and Michele Bachmann 1%.

Two Polls Report Gingrich Leading Nationally

Posted Nov 18, 2011 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger

Two polls now show Newt Gingrich leading the GOP pack nationally. An Economist/YouGov reports that Gingrich leading is ahead nationally with 23%, followed closely by Herman Cain at 21% and Mitt Romney at 19%. Ron Paul comes in at 7%, Rick Perry at 6%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, Rick Santorum at 2% and Gary Johnson at 1%. A Fox News pollalso shows Gingrich in the lead, with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22% and Herman Cain at 15%. Ron Paul come in at 8%, Rick Perry at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Rick Santorum at 2%.

Election 2012: Romney Way Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted Nov 17, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Bloomberg in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a huge lead over his GOP presidential rivals with 40%, followed by Ron Paul at 17% and Newt Gingrich at 10%. All the other candidates are below 10%.

Cain Maintains Leads In Iowa and South Carolina

Posted Nov 16, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite Allegations of sexual misconduct, Herman Cain maintains his lead in two early Republican nomination contests. According to two new surveys by Insider Advantage, Cain leads in Iowa with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Newt Gingrich at 15%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 9% and Michele Bachmann at 5%. In another key state, South Carolina, Cain leads with 26%, followed by Gingrich at 19%, Romney at 16%, Perry at 6%, Bachmann at 5%, Ron Paul at 3% and Rick Santorum at 1%.

Romney and Cain Maintain Leads In Early States

Posted Nov 15, 2011 at 12:47 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a series of surveys by GS Strategy, Mitt Romney and Herman Cain maintain leads in early GOP voting states. In Iowa, Cain leads Romney, 25% to 22%; the other candidates are at single digits. In New Hampshire, Romney maintains a huge lead, with 43% to Cain's 18%. In South Carolina, Cain just edges Romney in a statistical tie, 28% to 27%.

Election 2012: Romney Retakes National Lead

Posted Nov 14, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey by Economist/YouGov, Mitt Romney has retaken his position atop the GOP presidential field with 24%, followed by Herman Cain at 21% and Newt Gingrich at 16%. Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Rick Perry are all tied for forth at 7%, in front of Jon Huntsman at 5% and Rick Santorum at 2%.

Election 2012: Obama Improves Competitive Standing

Posted Nov 11, 2011 at 12:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Gallup reports that President Obama's relative standing against a generic Republican candidate has improved considerably since the early fall. He now leads 43% to 42%. In Gallup's September and October polls, Obama trailed 38% to 46%. Gallup writes: "The evenness of independents' preferences marks a significant change from September and October, when independents favored the Republican candidate by a significant margin. The current pattern more closely resembles where independents were earlier this year, when Obama and the Republican were evenly matched... The changes in this survey matchup between Obama and a generic Republican candidate no doubt foreshadow the potential political volatility to come over the next 12 months."

Cain Retains Strength Nationally

Posted Nov 09, 2011 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Washington Post-ABC News reports that Herman Cain holds his own nationally, despite allegations of sexual impropriety: "More than half of potential Republican voters say the controversy is not serious, fewer than a quarter say it makes them less likely to support Cain, and he's running essentially evenly with Mitt Romney for the Republican presidential nomination." In the poll, Romney edges Cain nationally among Republican voters, 24% to 23%, a virtual tie. Rick Perry trails with 13% followed by Newt Gingrich at 12%.

Election 2012: Cain and Romney Tied Nationally Among GOP Voters

Posted Nov 08, 2011 at 3:32 AM by Maurice Berger

 

A new poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that Herman Cain and Mitt Romney tied for the lead nationally among Republican voters at 21% each. Newt Gingrich is in third place at 12%, just ahead of Rick Perry at 11%. The other candidates fail to rise above single digits.

Election 2012: Early GOP Voting Calendar Set

Posted Nov 03, 2011 at 3:25 AM by Maurice Berger

For those of you, like PollTrack, interesting in following voter sentiment on the ground, here is the voting schedule of the first five states in the Republican nominating process:

January 3: Iowa

January 10: New Hampshire

January 21: South Carolina

January 31: Florida

February 4: Nevada

Cain And Romney Virtually Tied In Iowa Poll

Posted Nov 01, 2011 at 11:34 PM by Maurice Berger

The prestigious (and often remarkably accurate) Des Moines Register Iowa poll suggests that the race to win the Iowa Caucus may be very close. The survey reports that Herman Cain and Mitt are virtually tied at this poinr in the race: Cain edges Romney, 23% to 22%, with Ron Paul at 12%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Rick Perry at 7%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

Election 2012: Cain Leads Nationally

Posted Oct 31, 2011 at 2:51 AM by Maurice Berger

While several recent polls have showed Mitt Romney leading in some of the early 2012 caucus and primary states, a nw survey by the Economist/YouGov reports that Herman Cain now leads the Republican presidential field nationally with 28%, followed by Romney at 24%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates are below 5%. The poll also suggests that Romney mat be the stronger challenger against the president next fall: in general election match ups, Obama leads Romney, 48% to 45%, bests Cain, 48% to 40%, and overwhelms Perry 48% to 38%.

 

 

Election 2012: Romney Ahead Or Tied In Early Voiting States

Posted Oct 28, 2011 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A new multi-state survey by CNN/Time/Opinion Research reports that Mitt Romney remains the clear front-runner in New Hampshire, leads in Florida, and is statistically tied for the top spot with Herman Cain in Iowa and South Carolina.

Iowa: Romney leads Cain 24 to 21%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 10%, Gingrich at 10%, and Bachmann at 6%.

New Hampshire: Romney leads Cain 40 to 13%, followed by Paul at 12%, Huntsman at 6%, Gingrich at 5%, and Perry at 4%.

South Carolina: Romney leads Cain 25 to 23%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, and Bachmann at 4%,

Florida: Romney leads Cain 30 to 18%, followed Gingrich at 9%, Perry at 9%, Paul at 6% and Bachmann at 4%.

Cain With Slight Lead In South Carolina

Posted Oct 14, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by the American Research Group in South Carolina reports that Herman Cain has a tiny lead over Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential primary field: Cain is at 26%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 25%. Rick Perry is third at 15%.

PPP: Cain With National Lead

Posted Oct 13, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has now taken the national lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 30% to 22%, with Newt Gingrich at 15% and Rick Perry at 14%.The rest of the field remain in the single digits: Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul are tied for 5th at 5%, Jon Huntsman 7th at 2%, Rick Santorum 8th at 1%, and Gary Johnson 9th with less than 1%.

Election 2012: Cain Takes Lead In Iowa

Posted Oct 12, 2011 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has taken the lead in the Republican presidential race in Iowa with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 8% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

CBS News Poll: Herman Cain Campaign Gaining Traction?

Posted Oct 05, 2011 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

In another sign that Herman Cain's quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president may be gaining traction, a new CBS News poll reports that Herman Cain has moved into a tie with Mitt Romney at the top of the pack of presidential candidates with 17% each, while Rick Perry has fallen to just 12%.

Election 2012: Perry's Numbers Collapse In Florida

Posted Oct 04, 2011 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A new War Room Logistics (R) survey in Florida reports that Rick Perry's numbers in the state have taken a -16% nose dive. The poll finds Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential field with 28% among likely voters, followed by Herman Cain at 24%, Newt Gingrich at 10% and Rick Perry at 9%. PollTrack believes that the key number here is not Romney's or Perry's, but Cain who is now a close second, after winning the Florida Straw Poll last week. Cain's strong showing here--and his uptick nationally--could suggest that he is becoming a real contender in the GOP presidential nomination race.

Election 2012: Romney Leads In Iowa

Posted Sep 30, 2011 at 12:15 AM by Maurice Berger

In a sign that Iowa GOP voters, who tend to be more socially conservative the other early primary and caucus states, are more interested in winning against President Obama than ideological purity, a new American Research Group poll in the state reports that Mitt Romney now leads the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at 12%. All other candidates are in the single digits.

Election 2012: Romney Retakes National Lead

Posted Sep 29, 2011 at 12:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Fox News poll reports a significant drop in support for Rick Perry nationally among GOP voters. Mitt Romney now leads the Republican presidential field with 23%, followed by Rick Perry at 19% and Herman Cain at 17%. Within the past 30-days, Romney is up by +1%, Perry is down -10% and Cain is up +6%. In the Fox poll, Newt Gingrich comes in at 11%, Ron Paul is at 6% and Michele Bachmann is at 3%.

Florida: GOP Insiders See Romney As Strongest Candidate Against Obama

Posted Sep 23, 2011 at 12:10 AM by Maurice Berger

What do Democratic and GOP insiders in Florida think of the GOP field and its chances against a sitting Democratic president? A new survey by St. Petersburg Times Florida Insider--which polled campaign consultants, lobbyists, activists --reports that two thirds of Democrats and two thirds of Republicans think Mitt Romney is a stronger general election candidate than Rick Perry. In the end, 50% of the Republican believe Romney will win the GOP primary in Florida next year, while 41% predicted Perry.

Election 2012: Who's Ahead In The GOP Prsidential Primary?

Posted Sep 22, 2011 at 12:38 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Florida Times-Union/Insider Advantage in Florida reports that Rick Perry now leads Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential primary race by nine points, 29% to 20%. All other candidates are in the single digits.

Perry Maintains Wide National Lead

Posted Sep 15, 2011 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Rick Perry continues to hold a significant lead over Mitt Romney nationally in the Republican presidential race, 31% to 18%. As for the other candidates, Ron Paul comes in at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Herman Cain at 8%, and Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum both at 2%.

Another Poll Shows Perry In Lead For GOP Nomination

Posted Sep 13, 2011 at 1:56 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Economist/YouGov, Rick Perry continues to maintain a solid lead for the GOP presidential nomination at 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 13%, Rudy Giuliani at 9%, and Sarah Palin at 8%, Ron Paul at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5% and Herman Cain at 5%.

Election 2012: Perry Leads GOP Pack Nationally

Posted Sep 06, 2011 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Fox News reports that Rick Perry continues to lead the Republican presidential field nationally with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%. No other candidate garners double-digit support.

Election 2012: Perry Now National GOP Frontrunner

Posted Aug 25, 2011 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

In a stunning realignment of the GOP presidential field, two new polls now show Texas Governor Rick Perry overtaking Mitt Romney as frontrunner. A survey by Gallup reports that Perry now leads the pack with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at 13% and Michele Bachmann at 10%. All other contenders are below 5% in support. And a new Public Policy Polling survey has Perry at 33%, Romney at 20%, Bachmann at 16%, Newt Gingrich at 8% and Herman Cain and Ron Paul at 6%.

GOP Nomination Race: Romney Ahead In Florida

Posted Aug 23, 2011 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by McLaughlin & Associates in Florida reports that Mitt Romney maintains a double-digit lead over the rest of the GOP presidential field: the former Massachusetts Governor comes in at 27%, followed by Rick Perry at 16%, and Michele Bachmann at 10%. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain trial at 5% each.

Election 2012: Rick Perry Leads In Iowa?

Posted Aug 19, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by We Ask America asked Iowa Republicans who they to see win the GOP nomination for president in 2012. The poll suggests that in the Hawkeye State, at least, there may be a new frontrunner: Rick Perry comes out on top with 29%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 17% and Mitt Romney at 15%.

Election 2012: Romney Leads In New Hampshire

Posted Aug 18, 2011 at 12:08 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Magellan poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential primary pack with 36%, followed by Rick Perry at 18%, Rep. Ron Paul at 14% and Rep. Michele Bachmann at 10%. All other candidates are at 3% or less.

Gallup: Romney Continues To Lead GOP Pack

Posted Aug 10, 2011 at 2:42 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Gallup Poll reports that Mitt Romney remains the frontrunner for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination with 24. He is followed by Rick Perry at 17%, Rep. Ron Paul at 14% and Rep. Michele Bachmann at 13%. All other GOP contenders are at single digits in the survey.

Bachmann Moves Into National Lead Among Republicans

Posted Jul 22, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Public Policy Polling national survey reports that Rep. Michele Bachmann has moved into a tiny, statistically insignificant, lead among likely Republican voters in the GOP presidential race. Bachmann tops the field with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 20%, Rick Perry at 12%, Herman Cain at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

Two More Polls Show Bachmann With Lead In Iowa

Posted Jul 15, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll of Iowa Republicans, this one from Magellan Strategies reports that Michele Bachmann holds a significant lead among likely caucus attendees with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 16%, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain at 8%, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 5% and Rick Santorum at 3%. 24% of respondents remain undecided. A Mason-Dixon poll in the state reports that Michele Bachmann leads among likely caucus-goers--though by a smaller margin--with 32%, followed by Mitt Romney at 29%, Tim Pawlenty at 7% and Rick Santorum at 6%.

Election 2012: Bachmann Ahead In Iowa?

Posted Jul 12, 2011 at 2:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey for the Iowa Republican reports that Michele Bachmann now leads the pack of 2012 GOP presidential contenders with 25%, followed by Mitt Romney at 21%, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain at 9%, Ron Paul at 6%, Newt Gingrich at 4%, Rick Santorum at 2% and John Hunstman at 1%.

New Hampshire 2012: Romney Leads, Bachmann Surges

Posted Jul 07, 2011 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential primary with 25%. The news is that the second placed candidate, Michele Bachmann, has surged in recent weeks, and now stands at 18%. Sarah Palin comes in at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry and Herman Cain at 7%, John Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Newt Gingrich at 4%. According to PPP: "Bachmann's surge in New Hampshire is being built on the back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of that movement she's leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%."

Election 2012: Romney Ahead In Florida

Posted Jul 01, 2011 at 1:59 AM by Maurice Berger

Could the GOP Primary in Florida be decisive in next year's Republican quest for the nomination for president? A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida reports that Mitt Romney has a double digit lead for the GOP presidential nomination. He also maintains the lead in other early voting states, such as New Hampshire and (by a whisker), Iowa. In Florida, Romney leads with 27%, followed by Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann at 17%, Herman Cain at 10%,  Newt Gingrich at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

GOP Voters Lack Enthusiasm For Their Candidates

Posted Jun 30, 2011 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A New York Times/CBS News poll reports that GOP voters are not at all enthusiastic for the pack of 2012 contenders for the Republican nomination for president: 70% of GOP voters now express dissatisfaction with their candidates and wish they had more choices. Even the presumptive frontrunners--Mitt Romney and Rep. Michele Bachmann--could muster the enthusiasm of no more than 7% of Republican voters apiece.

Election 2012: Romney Ahead In GOP Primary In CA

Posted Jun 22, 2011 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Field Poll in California reports: Mitt Romney "holds a solid lead over his 2012 GOP presidential rivals among the state's Republican voters . . . Romney is preferred by 25 percent of registered GOP voters, giving the former Massachusetts governor a double-digit lead over each of his challengers. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, viewed as Romney's leading competitor for the nomination, barely registered in the poll, earning just 3 percent support . . .

Romney's closest competition comes from two candidates who haven't even joined the race to deny Democratic President Obama a second term: former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (17 percent), and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (10 percent). If Giuliani is taken out of the field, Romney's lead widens - to 30 percent and a more than 2-to-1 lead over Palin at 12 percent in second position, the poll shows."

Another Poll Shows Romney Way Ahead In NH

Posted Jun 20, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll in New Hampshire, this one from Magellan Strategies reports that Mitt Romney holds a substantial lead over all potential GOP primary challengers with 42%: Rep. Ron Paul and Rep. Michelle Bachmann are tied at 10%, Sarah Palin comes in at 7%, Rudy Giuliani at 6% and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.

Romney Ahead In Nomination Battle, Trails Obama In General Election

Posted Jun 17, 2011 at 2:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reports that Mitt Romney is considerably ahead in his quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president: he now is at 30%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Herman Cain at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Newt Gingrich at 6%, Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum at 4% and Michele Bachmann at 3%. In a general election match up,
45% said they would probably vote to re-elect President Obama; 40% would opt for a generic Republican candidate. Against specific GOP contenders, the president's lead increased considerably, with Obama besting Romney, 49% to 43%.

Potential GOP Candidates Unpopular In Home States

Posted Jun 14, 2011 at 1:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that virtually all of the potential GOP candidates for president remain unpopular in their home states: "We've done polls in Massachusetts and Minnesota over the last couple weeks and found that Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Michele Bachmann are all unpopular in their home states. That's par for the course with this GOP Presidential field- we've polled on 9 of the candidates or potential candidates in their home states and only one of them is well liked- Gary Johnson in New Mexico."

Here's PPP's chart, from most popular to least popular:

Candidate (State)

Favorability

Net

Gary Johnson (New Mexico)

44/32

+12

Newt Gingrich (Georgia)

39/47

-8

Herman Cain (Georgia)

28/36

-8

Rick Perry (Texas)

42/50

-8

Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania)

37/47

-10

Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)

40/52

-12

Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota)

40/53

-13

Sarah Palin (Alaska)

33/58

-25

Michele Bachmann (Minnesota)

33/59

-26

Election 2012: Minnesotans Cool To The Idea Of Bachmann or Pawlenty Presidential Run

Posted Jun 07, 2011 at 3:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Two GOP Minnesota politicians are considering a race for president in 2012: Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty. What do the people of the state think about this. A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Minnesota voters are, at best, cool to the idea: "Only 28% think Pawlenty should seek the White House to 17% who think he should run for the Senate and 45% who think he shouldn't run for anything. There's even less interest in a Bachmann Presidential run -- 14% think she should seek that office to 23% who think she should run for the Senate, 10% who think she should run for reelection to her House seat, and 47% who just want her to go away."

Election 2012: Dems See Romney and Huntsman As Biggest Threat

Posted Jun 06, 2011 at 10:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A National Journal survey of Democratic insiders reports that Mitt Romney is seen as the biggest threat to President Obama by 27%, followed closely by Jon Huntsman at 25%, Tim Pawlenty at 20%, Chris Christie at 11%, and Rick Perry at 5%.

Republicans Down On 2012 Presidential Field

Posted May 15, 2011 at 4:11 PM by Maurice Berger

An Associated Press-GfK poll reports that 45% of Republicans remain dissatisfied with the field of declared GOP presidential candidates as well as those believed to be serious about running. This represents a 12% gain from one month ago. Just 41% are satisfied with these candidates, down from 52%.

GOP Voters Rate Business and Economy As Top Political Concerns

Posted May 13, 2011 at 12:34 AM by Maurice Berger

In a hint of the priorities of GOP voters in the primaries and caucuses for the 2012 nomination for president, a Gallup survey reports that "given a choice, 36% of Republicans say business and the economy are the most important political issues to them, up from 32% in March, and now on par with the percentage who say the same about government spending and power. Fewer Republicans choose either social issues and moral values or national security and foreign policy as their top political priorities." Here is Gallup's chart: Trend: Republicans' Issue Priorities

Election 2012: Huckabee Out Front In SC

Posted Apr 27, 2011 at 12:50 AM by Maurice Berger

A new American Research Group poll in South Carolina reports that Mike Huckabee now leads in another key early primary state for the 2012 GOP nomination. Huckabe comes in at with 20%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 18%. Donald Trump at 13% and Sarah Palin at 10%.

 

Election 2012: Trump Leads GOP Nomination Race

Posted Apr 19, 2011 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Public Policy Polling, Donald Trump now leads the GOP pack for the 2012 GOP nomination for president, with 26%; Mike Huckabee follows with 17%, Mitt Romney at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 11%, Sarah Palin at 8% and Ron Paul at 5%.

NJ Gov. Christie Remains Unknown Quantity

Posted Apr 14, 2011 at 4:40 PM by Maurice Berger

Despite the enthusiasm of many Republicans for his policy's of Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, who has been mentioned as a possible Republican presidential candidate in 2012, remains mostly unknown to most Americans. A new Gallup survey notes that "overall, 27% of Americans view him favorably and 22% unfavorably. Among Republicans, his ratings are 41% favorable and 12% unfavorable."

Election 2012: GOP Field Evenly Matched

Posted Apr 12, 2011 at 12:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Fox News poll show a closely matched GOP field for the 2012 nomination, with no potential Republican presidential candidate breaking out of a crowded field. Mike Huckabee is ahead with 15%; Mitt Romney is at 14%; Sarah Palin at 12% and Donald Trump at 11%. Other candidates remain the the single digits.

 

Gallup: Huckabee In Strongest Position For GOP Nomination

Posted Apr 11, 2011 at 12:56 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "With President Obama officially announcing his candidacy for re-election on Monday, the question of whom he will run against becomes even more relevant. Three possible Republican candidates -- Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich -- are currently best situated among Republicans nationwide in terms of name recognition and Gallup Positive Intensity Scores. Sarah Palin and Ron Paul are also well known, but generate lower net enthusiasm from those who know them. Of the less well-known potential GOP candidates, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty have the highest Positive Intensity Scores." Here is Gallup's chart Potential GOP Candidate Images Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents, March 21-April 3, 2011

Huckabee Leads In Iowa

Posted Apr 08, 2011 at 12:09 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Neighborhood Research poll of likely Iowa Republican presidential caucus-goers reports that Mike Huckabee leads the GOP pack with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 14%, Donald Trump at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 8%, Sarah Palin at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 5% and Tim Pawlenty at 4%.

Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll: Romney, Trump and Huckabee Run Strong

Posted Apr 07, 2011 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, Mitt Romney leads the GOP presidential nomination race with 21%, followed by Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee both at 17%. Newt Gingrich was in fourth place with 11%, followed by Sarah Palin at 10% and Tim Pawlenty at 6%.

2012 GOP Nomination: Huckabee Continues To Lead Nationally

Posted Mar 29, 2011 at 2:11 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Gallup survey reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead in the race for the 2012 GOP Presidential nomination with 19%; he is followed by Mitt Romney at 15%, Sarah Palin at 12% and Newt Gingrich at 10%. According to Gallup, if "Huckabee were not a candidate, most of his support would go to the top three remaining candidates. Romney and Palin would essentially tie for the lead, at 19% and 17%, respectively, with Gingrich getting a bump in support to 13%."

Christie Most Liked Among GOP Pack

Posted Mar 16, 2011 at 4:10 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a just released Daily Caller/ConservativeHome poll, a tiny plurality of Republicans--15%-- would like to see New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) as their presidential candidate in 2012. However, 27% expect Mitt Romney to win the nomination.

 

GOP Nomination 2012: Huckabee Remains Iowa Frontrunner

Posted Mar 14, 2011 at 12:37 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released We Ask America poll in Iowa reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead the Republican presidential pack, with 20%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Newt Gingrich at 13%, Mitt Romney at 13%, Donald Trump at 9%, Ron Paul at 5%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, Haley Barbour at 3% and Mitch Daniels at 2%.

Lack of GOP Front-Runner Is Atypical

Posted Mar 08, 2011 at 12:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup reports: "The close contest among Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney in Republicans' preferences for the 2012 presidential nomination is atypical for a party accustomed to having strong early front-runners. In all 10 competitive GOP races since 1952, one candidate started off strongly, and in 8 of them, he prevailed." Here is Gallup's chart:

Gallup Republican Primary Nomination Polls: Competitive Races, 1952-2008

Huckabee Ahead In South

Posted Mar 07, 2011 at 12:59 AM by Maurice Berger

A Winthrop University poll of southern states reports that Mike Huckabee leads his hypothetical rivals in the 2012 Republican presidential primary rivals.  Huckabee receives 21.9%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12.9%, Sarah Palin at 8.7%, Mitt Romney at 6.9%, Tim Pawlenty at 6.2% and Ron Paul at 5.7%. The president's approval rating remains extremely low in the South, with just 38% approving and 51% disapproving.

Election 2012: How Strong A GOP Candidate Is Jeb Bush?

Posted Feb 16, 2011 at 1:38 AM by Maurice Berger

With calls for President George W. Brush's brother Jeb to throw his hat into the ring for the 2012 presidential election cycle, a key question remains: How strong a candidate would he make. A just released Fox News poll reports that President Obama leads Bush 54% to 34% in the poll, poor numbers indded for the former Florida governor.

Rasmussen: Accessing the 2012 GOP Field

Posted Feb 10, 2011 at 1:59 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Rasmussen Reports survey offers an early look at potential 2012 match-ups,reporting that "Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee essentially run even with Obama at this point. Romney is nominally up two points, 44% to 42%, while Huckabee is tied with the president at 43% apiece. Three other well-known potential candidates, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul trail the president. Palin is down by 11 points, 49% to 38%, Gingrich by eight, 47% to 39%, and Paul by nine, 44% to 35%" 

GOP Nomination 2012: Huckabee Up In Iowa, Romney in NH

Posted Feb 01, 2011 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger

Strategic National commissioned two polls of the Republican presidential race in Iowa and New Hampshire. Here are the results: In Iowa, Mike Huckabee leads by at 28%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Sarah Palin at 12%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Tim Pawlenty at 4% and Michele Bachmann at 4%. In New Hampshire, it is Mitt Romney who leads at 34%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 14%, Sarah Palin at 13%, Newt Gingrich at 9% and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.

Iowa GOP Nomnation 2012: Huckabee Front Runner

Posted Jan 24, 2011 at 12:39 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that Mike Huckabee is the clear leader for the GOP nomination for president in 2012. Huckabee leads with 24%; Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney are tied at 14%; Newt Gingrich at 11%; Tim Pawlenty at 8%; and Ron Paul at 7%. PPP writes: "[Huckabee's] ahead with both moderates and conservatives, showing an ability to unify two wings of the party that have become increasingly polarized from each other with the rise of the Tea Party movement. That's important not just for snagging the nomination but also for Republican prospects of winning the general -- they can't do it without a candidate who is able to hold the entire base in line."