Posted Jan 20, 2012 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger
After a month with a clear advantage in South Carolina, four new polls suggest that Mitt Romney may now be the underdog in the state's upcoming GOP presidential primary.
A survey by American Research Group reports that Newt Gingrich now leads, with 33% closely followed by Mitt Romney 32%, Ron Paul 19%, Rick Santorum 9%, Rick Perry 4%.
InsiderAdvantage shows Gingrich leading with 32%, followed by Romney at 29%, Paul at 15%, Santorum at 11%, and Rick Perry far behind at 3%.
We Ask America reports that Gingrich leads the GOP field with 32%,
followed by Mitt Romney at 28%, Ron Paul at 13%, Rick Santorum at 9%,
Rick Perry at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 3%.
And a survey by Public Policy Polling survey show Gingrich with 35%, Romney with 29%, and Paul and Santorum each tied for third at 15%.
PollTrack notes that Perry's departure from the race could also help Gingrich, removing as it does one less conservative alternative to Romney.
Tagged: Election 2012, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republican nomination, Republican Party, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, South Carolina
Posted Jan 17, 2012 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger
Three new polls show Mitt Romney with a significant lead in next Saturday's South Carolina GOP presidential primary:
InsiderAdvantage: Romney is at 32%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 21%, Ron Paul at
14%, Rick Santorum at 13%, Jon Huntsman at 6% and Rick Perry at 5%.
Reuters/Ipsos Romney leads with 37%, followed by Ron Paul
at Rick Santorum at 16% and Newt Gingrich dropping back to 16%.
Frontier Strategy: Romney is at with 32%, followed by Gingrich at 23%, Santorum at 14%, Paul at 10%, Perry at 6% and Huntsman at 4%.
Tagged: Election 2012, Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Republican Party, Republican nomination, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, South Carolina
Posted Jan 12, 2012 at 10:03 AM by Maurice Berger
As of Tuesday--and therefore before the results of the New Hampshire primary--Mitt Romney continues to hold a very modest lead in South Carolina, according to two polls: A survey by We Ask America reports that Mitt Romney leads the GOP presidential field
with 26%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 21%, Rick Santorum at 13%, Ron
Paul at 8%, Rick Perry at 5% and John Hunstman at 4%. Another 22% are
still undecided. A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Romney at 27%, Gingrich at 23%, Santorum at 18%, Ron Paul at 8%, Rick Perry at 7% and Jon
Huntsman at 4%.
Tagged: Election 2012, Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Republican Party, Republican nomination, South Carolina
Posted Jan 10, 2012 at 9:46 AM by Maurice Berger
Polling in recent days has shown surprising strength for Mitt Romney in the relative conservative state of South Carolina. A new Public Policy Polling survey in the state reports that Mitt Romney holds a modest lead, with 30%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 23%, Rick Santorum
at 19%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy
Roemer at 1%.
Tagged: Election 2012, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republican nomination, Republican Party, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, South Carolina
Posted Dec 14, 2011 at 9:14 AM by Maurice Berger
Two new polls by NBC News-Marist report that Newt Gingrich has considerable leads over Mitt Romney in South Carolina and Florida.
In South Carolina, Gingrich leads Romney by 42% to 23% (no other GOP candidate rises above single digits). In Florida, Gingrich leads Romney by 44% to 29%.
Tagged: 2011, Election 2012, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Republican nomination, Republican Party, South Carolina, Florida
Posted Nov 30, 2011 at 9:51 AM by Maurice Berger
Despite polls showing Mitt Romney way ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack's analysis of the early voting states suggests a less clear path to victory for Romney. As one pollster notes in New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): "Just 16% of . . . likely primary voters say they
know who they are voting for. So, while Romney might like his commanding
lead right now, there is no telling where 84% of voters will go in the
six remaining weeks before the primary." Indeed, the former Massachusetts governor now trails Newt Gingrich in most of the early voting states (or, as in Florida, is locked in a virtual tie with Gingrich). Romney's inability to seal the deal with Republican voters is telling.
Too moderate for the far right wing of the party--especially for Tea Party supporters--and too opportunistic in the eyes of even more moderate Republican voters, Romney appears to be unable to win the trust of a majority of GOP voters (or even a clear plurality). While it is now likely that the GOP primary season will drag on well into the early summer of 2012, it is PollTrack's opinion that Romney is no longer the clear frontrunner. Indeed, with major support now breaking Gingrich's way--and nearly all national surveys of GOP voters showing him in the lead--Gingrich may be breaking away from the pack. And as under-performing ultra-conservative candidates such as Cain, Bachmann, and Santorum begin dropping out of the race, it is far more likely that their votes will go to Gingrich and not Romney. Stay tuned.
Tagged: Election 2012, 2011, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, New Hampshire, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina
Posted Nov 16, 2011 at 9:16 AM by Maurice Berger
Despite Allegations of sexual misconduct, Herman Cain maintains his lead in two early Republican nomination contests. According to two new surveys by Insider Advantage, Cain leads in Iowa with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Newt Gingrich at
15%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 9% and Michele Bachmann at 5%.
In another key state, South Carolina,
Cain leads with 26%, followed by Gingrich at 19%, Romney at 16%, Perry
at 6%, Bachmann at 5%, Ron Paul at 3% and Rick Santorum at 1%.
Tagged: 2011, Election 2012, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Republican nomination, Republican Party, Rick Perry, Ron Paul, Iowa, South Carolina
Posted Nov 15, 2011 at 8:47 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a series of surveys by GS Strategy, Mitt Romney and Herman Cain maintain leads in early GOP voting states. In Iowa, Cain leads Romney, 25% to 22%; the other candidates are at single digits. In New Hampshire, Romney maintains a huge lead, with 43% to Cain's 18%. In South Carolina, Cain just edges Romney in a statistical tie, 28% to 27%.
Tagged: 2011, Election 2012, Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, Michelle Obama, Rick Perry, Ron Paul, Republican Party, Republican nomination
Posted Nov 03, 2011 at 11:25 AM by Maurice Berger
For those of you, like PollTrack, interesting in following voter sentiment on the ground, here is the voting schedule of the first five states in the Republican nominating process:
January 3: Iowa
January 10: New Hampshire
January 21: South Carolina
January 31: Florida
February 4: Nevada
Tagged: Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, South Carolina, Republican nomination, Republican Party, Election 2012
Posted Oct 28, 2011 at 10:03 AM by Maurice Berger
A new multi-state survey by CNN/Time/Opinion Research reports that Mitt Romney remains the clear front-runner in New
Hampshire, leads in Florida, and is statistically tied for the top spot
with Herman Cain in Iowa and South Carolina.
Iowa: Romney leads Cain 24 to 21%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 10%, Gingrich at 10%, and Bachmann at 6%.
New Hampshire: Romney leads Cain 40 to 13%, followed by Paul at 12%, Huntsman at 6%, Gingrich at 5%, and Perry at 4%.
South Carolina: Romney leads Cain 25 to 23%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, and Bachmann at 4%,
Florida: Romney leads Cain 30 to 18%, followed Gingrich at 9%, Perry at 9%, Paul at 6% and Bachmann at 4%.
Tagged: 2011, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Republican nomination, Republican Party, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain
Posted Oct 14, 2011 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger
A poll by the American Research Group in South Carolina reports that Herman Cain has a tiny lead over Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential
primary field: Cain is at 26%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 25%. Rick Perry is
third at 15%.
Tagged: 2011, Election 2012, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Republican nomination, South Carolina
Posted Jul 20, 2011 at 8:58 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released American Research Group poll in South Carolina reports that Mitt Romney holds a significant lead among likely Republican
primary voters with 25%, followed by Sarah Palin at 16%, Michele
Bachmann at 13%, Herman Cain at 10% and Rudy Giuliani and Rick Perry
both at 6%,
Tagged: Election 2012, Herman Cain, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, South Carolina
Posted Sep 15, 2009 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger
Following the media firestorm surrounding GOP SC Rep. Joe Wilson's during President Obama's speech to a joint session of Congress on Wednesday, a new
Public Policy Polling survey finds that the congressman "went from being pretty safe for re-election to
one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the country." Democrat Rob Miller holds a one point lead over Wilson, 44% to 43%, in a survey conducted Thursday night and Friday morning. PPP also reports that "a majority of voters, 62%, in SC-2 disapprove of Wilson's outburst while just 29% were not bothered by it."
Tagged: 2009, President Barack Obama, US House RACE CHART, South Carolina
Posted Nov 04, 2008 at 7:05 PM by Maurice Berger
Be Careful not to read too much into the states NOT called: GA, IN, SC, VA. They may be close . . . or actual precinct numbers may not be available to back up exit poll data.
Tagged: Georgia, South Carolina, Indiana, Virginia
Posted Sep 24, 2008 at 12:16 PM by Maurice Berger
One the basis of new polling numbers, PollTrack moves South Carolina from "Leaning" to "Safe Republican."
Tagged: South Carolina
Posted Sep 21, 2008 at 11:56 AM by Maurice Berger
On the basis of recent polling in each state, PollTrack moves both South Carolina (Rasmussen: McCain +6%) and West Virginia (Mark Blankenship Enterprises: McCain +5%) from "Safe" to "Leaning Republican" on Today's Map. Both states continue to trend "Safe" on Tomorrow's Map.
Tagged: West Virginia, South Carolina
