Posted May 23, 2012 at 9:26 AM by Maurice Berger
Although Tennessee has been a traditional red state in presidential elections (even when native son Al Gore ran in 2000), a new poll by Vanderbilt University poll reports that President Obama has pulled into a virtual tie with Mitt Romney. In the survey, Romney leads Obama by +1% among likely voters, 42% to 41%; however,
among registered voters, Romney has a considerably larger lead, 47% to 40%.
Posted Mar 05, 2012 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger
Here are polling updates from PollTrack on the upcoming GOP primary and causes race for tomorrow's Super Tuesday sweep.
Georgia: Landmark/Rosetta Stone shows a possible Newt Gingrich romp in the state, with the former house speaker way ahead of the GOP
presidential field in his home state with 42%, followed by Mitt Romney
at 22%, Rick Santorum at 16% and Ron Paul at 5%. Interestingly, YouGov show a much closer race, with Gingrich at 32%, followed by Romney at 27%, Santorum at 17% and Paul at 10%
Massachusetts: According to YouGov, it's a Romney romp in the former governor's home state. Romney leads with 56%, followed by Santorum at 16%, Gingrich at 5% and Paul at 5%.
Ohio: In the all important--and perhaps make or break race for Rick Santorum--in Ohio, a survey by NBC News/Marist reports that Santorum is just ahead of Romney among GOP primary
voters, 34% to 32%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 15% and Ron Paul at
Oklahoma: American Research Group reports that Santorum leads the GOP presidential field in
next week's primary with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 26%, Newt
Gingrich at 22%, and Ron Paul at 9%.
Tennessee: Rasmussen survey finds Santorum just ahead of Romney, 34% to 30%, with Newt Gingrich at 18% and Ron Paul at 8%. Similarly, American Research Group shows Santorum leading Romney, 35% to 31%, with Gingrich at 20% and Paul at 9%.
Posted Mar 01, 2012 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by Vanderbilt University in Tennessee reports that Rick Santorum lead the GOP presidential
primary by a significant +16% margin over Mitt Romney, 33% to 17%,
followed by Ron Paul at 13% and Newt
Gingrich at 10%.
Posted Jan 27, 2009 at 1:12 AM by Maurice Berger
The ideological divide evident in Election 2008 between the so-called blue and red states may be dissipating. According to a set of polls released by Rasmussen Reports, Tennessee and Texas--two states that were safely in John McCain’s column on
Election Day--now report surprisingly high approval ratings for President Obama: "In a snapshot look at attitudes in McCain country, Rasmussen
Reports finds that concerns about the current economic situation appear to
override traditional political considerations. In Texas, for example, 62% of voters approve of Barack
Obama’s performance to date, including 41% who Strongly Approve. 35% disapprove, with 19% who Strongly Disapprove.Only 47% of Texas voters had a favorable opinion of Obama in
the last poll before Election Day . . . 60% of Tennessee voters approve of Obama’s
job performance, including 39% who Strongly Approve. Thirty-five percent (35%)
disapprove, 21% of whom Strongly Disapprove." Obama's approval rating in the state in a pre-Election Day poll was 45%.
Posted Sep 30, 2008 at 2:36 AM by Maurice Berger
In a bit of news that seems antithetical to Obama's improving poll numbers, a statewide poll released yesterday by Middle Tennessee State University reports that Democrat is still having a problem winning over voters who supported Hillary Clinton in Tennessee's primary back in February. If the election remains close, this "Clinton gap" could spell trouble for the Democrat. MTSU observes: "The McCain campaign seems to have had modest success at attracting
supporters of former Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, whom 22
percent of Tennesseans say they voted for in the Democratic primary. A
quarter of those who voted for the junior senator from New York in
Tennessee’s Democratic presidential primary say that they would now
vote for McCain and Palin in the general election. However, 56 percent
of those who report that they voted for Clinton in the primary say that
they would now vote for Obama and Biden. The rest of Clinton’s
supporters remain undecided at this point or say they would vote for
someone other than McCain or Obama." Overall, McCain's PollTrack average in the state is a healthy +14%.
Posted Sep 15, 2008 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger
Although the Republican base is fired up and McCain claims a significant lead among independents, Democratic party identification and voter enthusiasm is also way up (Rasmussen gives the Democrats a 5% advantage). Thus, neither candidate is walking away with the election at this point. Even a cursory glance at the electoral map suggests conditions far similar to the razor close count of 2000 and not 1988 or 1992, where one party gained lasting momentum and was able to pick off enough swing states to capture a solid electoral majority. If Obama were poised to do this, he would need to win a bunch of states that have gone Republican in the last two cycles but were also won by Bill Clinton in 1992 and/or 1996: Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, Georgia, Florida. All these states are now moving solidly into the Republican column. Similarly, McCain is behind in New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Michigan (though by smaller margins than Obama in TN, KY, MN, GA, WV), states he would need for a big win.
Unless dramatic on-the-ground events (perhaps spurred by this weekend's Wall Street meltdown) or a striking under-performance or major league blooper in the debates throws off one of the candidates, it's conceivable that the election will remain close to the very end. Then it will be up to voter enthusiasm and turnout to propel one or the other over the victory line.