Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Bachmann Moves Into National Lead Among Republicans

Posted Jul 22, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Public Policy Polling national survey reports that Rep. Michele Bachmann has moved into a tiny, statistically insignificant, lead among likely Republican voters in the GOP presidential race. Bachmann tops the field with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 20%, Rick Perry at 12%, Herman Cain at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

Election 2012: Romney Ahead in SC Primary

Posted Jul 20, 2011 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released American Research Group poll in South Carolina reports that Mitt Romney holds a significant lead among likely Republican primary voters with 25%, followed by Sarah Palin at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 13%, Herman Cain at 10% and Rudy Giuliani and Rick Perry both at 6%,

Two More Polls Show Bachmann With Lead In Iowa

Posted Jul 15, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll of Iowa Republicans, this one from Magellan Strategies reports that Michele Bachmann holds a significant lead among likely caucus attendees with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 16%, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain at 8%, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 5% and Rick Santorum at 3%. 24% of respondents remain undecided. A Mason-Dixon poll in the state reports that Michele Bachmann leads among likely caucus-goers--though by a smaller margin--with 32%, followed by Mitt Romney at 29%, Tim Pawlenty at 7% and Rick Santorum at 6%.

Election 2012: Bachmann Ahead In Iowa?

Posted Jul 12, 2011 at 2:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released survey for the Iowa Republican reports that Michele Bachmann now leads the pack of 2012 GOP presidential contenders with 25%, followed by Mitt Romney at 21%, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain at 9%, Ron Paul at 6%, Newt Gingrich at 4%, Rick Santorum at 2% and John Hunstman at 1%.

New Hampshire 2012: Romney Leads, Bachmann Surges

Posted Jul 07, 2011 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential primary with 25%. The news is that the second placed candidate, Michele Bachmann, has surged in recent weeks, and now stands at 18%. Sarah Palin comes in at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry and Herman Cain at 7%, John Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Newt Gingrich at 4%. According to PPP: "Bachmann's surge in New Hampshire is being built on the back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of that movement she's leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%."

Election 2012: Romney Holds Huge Lead in NH

Posted Jul 06, 2011 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

A new WMUR Granite State Poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney maintains a huge lead in the 2012 GOP presidential primary: He now stands in the survey at 35%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 12%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rudy Giuliani at 7%, Rick Perry at 4%, Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin at 3%, and Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain at 2%.

Election 2012: Romney Ahead In Florida

Posted Jul 01, 2011 at 1:59 AM by Maurice Berger

Could the GOP Primary in Florida be decisive in next year's Republican quest for the nomination for president? A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida reports that Mitt Romney has a double digit lead for the GOP presidential nomination. He also maintains the lead in other early voting states, such as New Hampshire and (by a whisker), Iowa. In Florida, Romney leads with 27%, followed by Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann at 17%, Herman Cain at 10%,  Newt Gingrich at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Iowa Poll: Romney/Palin Nearly Tied

Posted Jun 27, 2011 at 1:59 AM by Maurice Berger

Good news for Mitt Romney in the year's first Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the Republican presidential field. While pundits have wondered whether Romney may be consrrvative enough to win the GOP Iowa Caucus, which tilts towards social conservatives, the poll has Romney in the lead at 23%. The bad news for the former Massachusetts Governor is that Michele Bachmann is nearly tied with him at 22% among likely Republican caucus-goers. They are followed by Herman Cain at 10%, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

Election 2012: Romney Ahead In GOP Primary In CA

Posted Jun 22, 2011 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Field Poll in California reports: Mitt Romney "holds a solid lead over his 2012 GOP presidential rivals among the state's Republican voters . . . Romney is preferred by 25 percent of registered GOP voters, giving the former Massachusetts governor a double-digit lead over each of his challengers. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, viewed as Romney's leading competitor for the nomination, barely registered in the poll, earning just 3 percent support . . .

Romney's closest competition comes from two candidates who haven't even joined the race to deny Democratic President Obama a second term: former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (17 percent), and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (10 percent). If Giuliani is taken out of the field, Romney's lead widens - to 30 percent and a more than 2-to-1 lead over Palin at 12 percent in second position, the poll shows."

Romney Ahead In Nomination Battle, Trails Obama In General Election

Posted Jun 17, 2011 at 2:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reports that Mitt Romney is considerably ahead in his quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president: he now is at 30%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Herman Cain at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Newt Gingrich at 6%, Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum at 4% and Michele Bachmann at 3%. In a general election match up,
45% said they would probably vote to re-elect President Obama; 40% would opt for a generic Republican candidate. Against specific GOP contenders, the president's lead increased considerably, with Obama besting Romney, 49% to 43%.

Potential GOP Candidates Unpopular In Home States

Posted Jun 14, 2011 at 1:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that virtually all of the potential GOP candidates for president remain unpopular in their home states: "We've done polls in Massachusetts and Minnesota over the last couple weeks and found that Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Michele Bachmann are all unpopular in their home states. That's par for the course with this GOP Presidential field- we've polled on 9 of the candidates or potential candidates in their home states and only one of them is well liked- Gary Johnson in New Mexico."

Here's PPP's chart, from most popular to least popular:

Candidate (State)

Favorability

Net

Gary Johnson (New Mexico)

44/32

+12

Newt Gingrich (Georgia)

39/47

-8

Herman Cain (Georgia)

28/36

-8

Rick Perry (Texas)

42/50

-8

Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania)

37/47

-10

Mitt Romney (Massachusetts)

40/52

-12

Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota)

40/53

-13

Sarah Palin (Alaska)

33/58

-25

Michele Bachmann (Minnesota)

33/59

-26

Election 2012: Minnesotans Cool To The Idea Of Bachmann or Pawlenty Presidential Run

Posted Jun 07, 2011 at 3:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Two GOP Minnesota politicians are considering a race for president in 2012: Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty. What do the people of the state think about this. A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Minnesota voters are, at best, cool to the idea: "Only 28% think Pawlenty should seek the White House to 17% who think he should run for the Senate and 45% who think he shouldn't run for anything. There's even less interest in a Bachmann Presidential run -- 14% think she should seek that office to 23% who think she should run for the Senate, 10% who think she should run for reelection to her House seat, and 47% who just want her to go away."

Election 2012: Dems See Romney and Huntsman As Biggest Threat

Posted Jun 06, 2011 at 10:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A National Journal survey of Democratic insiders reports that Mitt Romney is seen as the biggest threat to President Obama by 27%, followed closely by Jon Huntsman at 25%, Tim Pawlenty at 20%, Chris Christie at 11%, and Rick Perry at 5%.

Election 2012: Romney and Palin In Lead for GOP Nomination

Posted Jun 03, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

Public Policy Polling national survey of the strength of potential candidates for the 2012 GOP nomination reports that with Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump out of the race, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin are now leading the pack with 16% each. Tim Pawlenty is at 13%, Herman Cain at 12% and Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul at 9%.

2012 Iowa Caucuses: Romney Leads

Posted Jun 02, 2011 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa finds Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential field with 21%; Sarah Palin and Herman Cain are each at at 15%; Newt Gingrich at 12%; Michele Bachman at 11%; Tim Pawlenty at 10%;and Ron Paul at 8%.

Election 2012: Romney Ahead In New Hampshire

Posted May 24, 2011 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released WMUR-CNN poll in New Hampshire reports that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has a huge lead in the Republican presidential race with 33%, followed by Rep. Ron Paul at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Rudy Giuliani at 6%.

Huckabee Leads In Iowa

Posted Apr 08, 2011 at 12:09 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Neighborhood Research poll of likely Iowa Republican presidential caucus-goers reports that Mike Huckabee leads the GOP pack with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 14%, Donald Trump at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 8%, Sarah Palin at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 5% and Tim Pawlenty at 4%.

Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll: Romney, Trump and Huckabee Run Strong

Posted Apr 07, 2011 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, Mitt Romney leads the GOP presidential nomination race with 21%, followed by Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee both at 17%. Newt Gingrich was in fourth place with 11%, followed by Sarah Palin at 10% and Tim Pawlenty at 6%.