Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL Today's Map: Clinton-322 Trump-216 TCTC-0

Posted Nov 08, 2016 at 9:20 AM by Maurice Berger

Our final tally for the hunt for electoral votes! Checks out Today's and Tomorrow's map for the details.

Today's Map: Clinton-322 Trump-216 TCTC-0

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 7:01 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Today's Map: Clinton-307 Trump-216 TCTC-15

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 5:56 PM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Today's Map: Clinton-308 Trump-215 TCTC-15

Posted Nov 07, 2016 at 9:48 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out today's map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Today's Map: Clinton-301 Trump-180 TCTC-57

Posted Sep 01, 2016 at 9:56 AM by Maurice Berger

Check out Today's Map for the latest in the hunt for electoral votes!

Did Hurricane Sandy Blunt Romney's Momentum?

Posted Dec 12, 2012 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger

Did Hurricane Sandy Blunt Romney's Momentum? According to former Romney strategist Stuart Stevens, the campaign lost momentum in the final week as Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast: "After the storm, I never had a good feeling. Not that the storm impacted things so much, per se, but these races -- a race like this is a lot like an NBA game. It's all about ball control at the end... We went from having these big rallies around the country to literally sitting around in hotel rooms and there was just nothing we could do about it." PollTrack must point out, however, that at no point during the last three months of the 2012 election cycle did its own analysis of the race--and its polling averages--indicate enough momentum for Romney to suggest a possible win. Indeed, PollTrack's Election Maps never showed Obama dropping below the 270-mark nor Romney rising above it, even after the President's sub-par debate performance in Denver in early-October. 

Final National Polling Average Tomorrow Morning

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 10:34 PM by Maurice Berger

Due to one late tracking poll (by International Business Daily-TIPP), PollTrack's final national polling average will be issued tomorrow morning. The US Senate Race Chart and the Presidential Maps will be finalized by midnight tonight EST.  

 

National Polling Average: Obama-47.5% to Romney-47.5%

Posted Oct 23, 2012 at 5:19 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's second wave aggregate of today's national polls in the presidential race continues to report an extremely close race. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a perfect tie. PollTrack continues to believe that the fundamentals of the race favor the president, who now stands at 281 electoral votes to Romney's 235 EVs on Today's Map. 22 EVs remain too-close-to-call.

Michigan Moves From Leaning DemocraticTo Democratic

Posted Sep 13, 2012 at 9:58 AM by Maurice Berger

A new surveyby EPIC-MRA in Michigan reports that President Obama now leads Mitt Romney by 10 points, 47% to 37%. Based on polling and historical models PollTrack moves the state on Today's Map from Leaning Democratic to Strong Democratic.

How The Maps Work: A Tutorial For New Visitors

Posted Aug 31, 2012 at 11:29 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack will periodically re-post this tutorial to accommodate new visitors:

 

For new visitors or for old visitors who would like a refresher course, here is a guide to PollTrack's unique mapping system. Remember, both Today's Map and Tomorrow's Map will be changing continuously throughout Election 2012, so check back often.

First, an overview: our innovative presidential election maps offer a snapshot of where things stand and where they are headed in the state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Armed with public opinion polls, the history and demographics of each state, knowledge of the nation’s geographic and cultural diversity, and common sense and intuition, political director Maurice Berger offers continuous updates and a blog (below map) on the state of the presidential race. Today’s Map Today monitors its current status. Tomorrow’s Map Today charts its momentum in the coming days or weeks. And Election Day Today records the actual outcome of the 2012 presidential race.

Here's a guide to each map:

Today's Map Today: This map monitors the current status of the race. It gauges the relative strength of each candidate within each state as it presently stands. Each state is marked with its abbreviation and number of electoral votes. Click on a state for commentary in the ongoing PollTrack blog.

States are called on an ongoing basis: Blue and Red for “Safe” Democrat or Republican respectively, Light Blue or Light Red for states currently “leaning” toward one party or another. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including poll averages, trends in most recent polling that contradict or call into question the accuracy of these averages, and on the ground reports and information. For diehard red or blue states (like Idaho or DC), little polling may be available, so the state will be called on the basis of on the ground reports and/or its stable voting history.

Tomorrow's Map Today: This map charts the momentum of the race. It tracks the hunt for electoral votes in each state as it might play out in the coming days or even weeks. States are called on an ongoing basis: Blue and Red for trends that suggest “Safe” Democrat or Republican respectively, Light Blue or Light Red for trends that suggest a state is “leaning” toward one party or another. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including movement in the most recent polling, a state’s demographics and voting history, on the ground reports and information, and news about a candidate's state-wide political activities.

Election Day Map Today: This map forecasts the outcome of the 2012 presidential race. Win Democrat or Win Republican respectively. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including long term and recent trends in state-wide polling, a state’s demographics and voting history in relationship to these trends, on the ground reports and information, and news about a candidate's state-wide political activities. States are called on an ongoing basis, with Blue (Democrat) and Red (Republican) indicating PollTrack’s long-term prediction for a state. NOTE: calls are made only when voter opinion begins to solidify in each state, thus this map will fill-in slowly over the next two and half months.

Maps Updated This Weekend!

Posted Jul 23, 2012 at 9:23 AM by Maurice Berger

Please check out our maps, which have been updated this weekend. And see "How the Maps Work" below!

A PollTrack Tutorial: How The Maps Work

Posted Jul 20, 2012 at 12:34 AM by Maurice Berger

For new visitors or for old visitors who would like a refresher course, here is a guide to PollTrack's unique mapping system. Remember, both Today's Map and Tomorrow's Map will be changing continuously throughout Election 2012, so check back often.

First, an overview: our innovative presidential election maps offer a snapshot of where things stand and where they are headed in the state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Armed with public opinion polls, the history and demographics of each state, knowledge of the nation’s geographic and cultural diversity, and common sense and intuition, political director Maurice Berger offers continuous updates and a blog (below map) on the state of the presidential race. Today’s Map Today monitors its current status. Tomorrow’s Map Today charts its momentum in the coming days or weeks. And Election Day Today records the actual outcome of the 2012 presidential race.

Here's a guide to each map:

Today's Map Today: This map monitors the current status of the race. It gauges the relative strength of each candidate within each state as it presently stands. Each state is marked with its abbreviation and number of electoral votes. Click on a state for commentary in the ongoing PollTrack blog.

States are called on an ongoing basis: Blue and Red for “Safe” Democrat or Republican respectively, Light Blue or Light Red for states currently “leaning” toward one party or another. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including poll averages, trends in most recent polling that contradict or call into question the accuracy of these averages, and on the ground reports and information. For diehard red or blue states (like Idaho or DC), little polling may be available, so the state will be called on the basis of on the ground reports and/or its stable voting history.

Tomorrow's Map Today: This map charts the momentum of the race. It tracks the hunt for electoral votes in each state as it might play out in the coming days or even weeks. States are called on an ongoing basis: Blue and Red for trends that suggest “Safe” Democrat or Republican respectively, Light Blue or Light Red for trends that suggest a state is “leaning” toward one party or another. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including movement in the most recent polling, a state’s demographics and voting history, on the ground reports and information, and news about a candidate's state-wide political activities.

Election Day Map Today: This map forecasts the outcome of the 2012 presidential race. Win Democrat or Win Republican respectively. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including long term and recent trends in state-wide polling, a state’s demographics and voting history in relationship to these trends, on the ground reports and information, and news about a candidate's state-wide political activities. States are called on an ongoing basis, with Blue (Democrat) and Red (Republican) indicating PollTrack’s long-term prediction for a state. NOTE: calls are made only when voter opinion begins to solidify in each state, thus this map will fill-in slowly over the next two and half months.

Today's Map: Colorado Moves From TCTC to Leaning Democratic

Posted Jun 28, 2012 at 2:19 AM by Maurice Berger

Based on the latest polling in Colorado, PollTack moves the state from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic on Today's Map. 

Today's Map: New Hampshire Moves From TCTC to Leaning Democratic

Posted Jun 25, 2012 at 1:17 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack moves New Hampshire from Too-Close-Call to Leaning Democratic on Today's Map Today. Stay tuned for continual updates on all three maps.

Today's Presidential Map: The Race Draws Closer

Posted May 29, 2012 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger

New calls by PollTrack on Today's Map suggest that the presidential race is growing closer. Our new tally (with leaners and safe states factored in):

Obama (D): 255 EVs

Romney (R): 235 EVs

Too-Close-To-Call: 48 EV

Today Map: President Obama Over 270 EVs

Posted Apr 05, 2012 at 8:39 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack has made substantive changes to Today's Map that suggest that if the election were held today, President Obama would secure enough electoral votes to achieve victory. Much can change between now and November, but given the improvement in the President's numbers over the past six months, this change represents significant movement

Today's Map: Iowa Now Leaning Republican

Posted Feb 21, 2012 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger

Although President Obama's standing in many of the swing states--including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio--have show improvement in recent weeks, his standing in one state, Iowa, is actually in decline. A poll by the Des Moines Register in Iowa shows the president trailing three of the four Republican candidates in head-to-head match-ups: Ron Paul, who leads Obama by +7%, 49% to 42%. Rick Santorum leads 48% to 44%. Mitt Romney leads Obama 46% to 44%. The president defeats only Newt Gingrich, 51% to 37%. PollTrack moves Iowa on Today's Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Republican.

Today's Map: New Hampshire Leaning Democratic

Posted Feb 08, 2012 at 1:41 AM by Maurice Berger

With a new survey by WMUR Granite State Poll reporting that  President Obama's standing in New Hampshire has improved considerably over the past six months--Obama's approval rating now stands at 51% and he beats Mitt Romney in a possible general election match up, 50% to 40%--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Presidential Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Democratic.