Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

LA US Senate: Democrat Way Behind

Posted Nov 24, 2014 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's polling average for the U.S. Senate runoff in Louisiana suggests that the Democrat, Mary Landrieu is considerably behind her GOP challenger, Bill Cassidy, 55% to 42%. 

NH US Senate: Democrat Wins

Posted Nov 04, 2014 at 9:16 PM by Maurice Berger

Looks like Democratic incumbent Shaheen will win her race against Republican Scott Brown. Important for the Democrats, but probably not enough at this point for the Democrats to retain the Senate. 

KY US Senate: GOP Win

Posted Nov 04, 2014 at 7:07 PM by Maurice Berger

McConnell wins the US Senate race in Kentucky. A must win for the GOP. And a step closer to a Republican controlled Senate. 

NH: Advantage Shaheen?

Posted Nov 04, 2014 at 6:56 PM by Maurice Berger

Fox News has inappropriately leaked Exit Polling in NH. It shows a virtual tie among independent voters in the US Senate race. This suggests two things: a close race, and a slight advantage for Democrat Shaheen in the Democratic leaning state.

FINAL US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 47 IND 1 GOP 52

Posted Nov 03, 2014 at 6:23 PM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 47   IND 1  GOP 52

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

 

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Peters (D)

NH: Saheen (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

 

Leans Independent

KS: Orman (I)

 

LEANS GOP

AK: Sullivan (R)

AR: Cotton (R)

GA: Perdue (R)

IA: Ernst (R)

CO: Gardner (R)

KS: Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Cassidy (R)

SD: Rounds (R) 

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 47 TOSS UP 1 IND 1 GOP 51

Posted Nov 01, 2014 at 8:05 PM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 47    TOSS UP 1   IND 1  GOP 51

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

 

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Peters (D)

NH: Saheen (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

 

TOSS UP

 

GA: Open

 

Leans Independent

KS: Orman (I)

 

LEANS GOP

AK: Sullivan (R)

AR: Cotton (R)

IA: Ernst (R)

CO: Gardner (R)

KS: Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Cassidy (R)

SD: Rounds (R) 

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: Results From Iowa Spell Bad News For Democrats

Posted Nov 01, 2014 at 7:51 PM by Maurice Berger

The latest poll out of Iowa from the Des Moines Register has bad news for the Democratic effort to retain control of the U.S. Senate. Given the current landscape of races across the nation, the party that wins Iowa is likely to control the Senate. The Des Moines Register poll, one of the most accurate polls in the nation, has Republican Joni Ernst up by +7. PollTrack's average for the state, while very close, shows momentum moving away from Democrat Bruce Braley over the past two weeks. PollTrack now rates this race Leans Republican. 

 

The other key race in Colorado appears to be slipping away from the Democrats, as well. In PollTrack's average for the state, Democrat Udall trails by over -3%. And according to news reports, the GOP has a 100,000 vote advantage in early balloting. A bad sign for the Democrats. 

 

At this point, it looks like 47 DEM 1-IND 52 GOP according to PollTrack's calculation. The one race that could shift back to the Democrats, Georgia, remains uncertain, the outcome dependent on African American turnout. Another race, Alaska, is hard to gauge, given the paucity of high quality polling. If both races were to break for the Democrats and the independent candidate were to prevail in Kansas and agree to caucus with the Democrats, a 50/50 tie is still possible, with the Vice President securing the upper chamber for the Democrats. 

 

As it now stands, GOP control of the Senate appears likely. More on Sunday and Monday. 

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 47 TOSS UP 3 IND 1 GOP: 49

Posted Oct 29, 2014 at 11:07 AM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 47    TOSS UP 3   IND 1  GOP: 49

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

 

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Peters (D)

NH: Saheen (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

 

Leans Independent

KS: Orman (I)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Cotton (R)

CO: Gardner (R)

KS: Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Cassidy (R)

SD: Rounds (R) 

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 48 TOSS UP 2 IND 1 GOP: 49

Posted Oct 26, 2014 at 2:58 PM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 48    TOSS UP 2   IND 1  GOP: 49

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

GA: Nunn (D)

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Peters (D)

NH: Saheen (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

 IA: Open

 

Leans Independent

KS: Orman (I)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Cotton (R)

CO: Gardner (R)

KS: Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Cassidy (R)

SD: Rounds (R) 

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 45 TOSS UP 8 GOP: 47

Posted Oct 17, 2014 at 1:07 PM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 45    TOSS UP 8     GOP: 47

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Open

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

CO: Udall (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

LA: Landrieu (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

NH: Shaheen (D)

SD: Rounds (R)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Pryor (D)

KS: Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

 

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate 2014: Further Erosion For Democrats

Posted Oct 16, 2014 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

In yet another sign that the Democratic chances to keeping the U.S. Senate may be eroding, a new poll by Quinnipiac in Colorado finds Republican Cory Gardner leading incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall by six points in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 41%. Colorado is a must win state for the Democrats hoping to keep control of the Senate.

Are Democratic Chances To Hold The U.S. Senate Fading?

Posted Oct 15, 2014 at 10:34 AM by Maurice Berger

It is results like this that are now starting to suggest that the Democrats chances of keeping the U.S. Senate may be fading: a new poll by New England College in New Hampshire reports that Republican Scott Brown now leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen  in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 47%. It's a single point. But PollTrack's polling average in the state has indicated momentum towards Brown over the past week. Without New Hampshire, it may be impossible for the Democrats to hold on to the Senate.

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 45 TOSS UP 10 GOP: 45

Posted Oct 14, 2014 at 12:46 PM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 46    TOSS UP 9     GOP: 45

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

MN: Franken (D)

MI: Open

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

CO: Udall (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

KS Roberts (R)

KY: McConnell (R)

LA: Landrieu (D)

NC: Hagan (D)

NH: Shaheen (D)

SD: Rounds (R)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Pryor (D)

 

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

US Senate Race Chart: DEM: 46 TOSS UP 7 GOP: 47

Posted Oct 06, 2014 at 10:30 AM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 46    TOSS UP 7     GOP: 47

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

MN: Franken

MI: Open

NC: Hagan (D)

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

CO: Udall (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

KS Roberts (R)

LA: Landrieu (D)

NH: Shaheen (D)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Pryor (D)

KY: McConnell (R)

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

IA US Senate: Republican Now Ahead

Posted Oct 02, 2014 at 9:36 AM by Maurice Berger

In a finding that may spell serious trouble for Democrats hoping to hold onto the US Senate, a new poll by the Des Moines Register in Iowa reports that Republican Joni Ernst holds a +6% lead over Democrat Bruce Braley in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 38%. A few months ago, this contest was seen as an easy victory for Democrats.

NC US Senate: Democrat With Modest Lead

Posted Oct 01, 2014 at 8:46 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by CNN/ORC International in North Carolina reports that incumbent US Sen. Kay Hagan holds a slight lead over GOP challenger Thom Tillis in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 43%, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 7%.

2014 U.S. SENATE RACE RATING: DEM 47 GOP 47

Posted Sep 30, 2014 at 10:39 AM by Maurice Berger

DEM: 47    TOSS UP 6     GOP: 47

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

DE, HI, IL, MA, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA

 

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

MN: Franken

MI: Open

NC: Hagan (D)

NH: Shaheen (D)

 

TOSS UP

AK Begich (D)

CO: Udall (D)

GA: Open

IA: Open

KS Roberts (R)

LA: Landrieu (D)

 

LEANS GOP

AR: Pryor (D)

KY: McConnell (R)

LIKELY GOP

AL, ID, ME, MS, MT, NE, OK, OK, SC, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

 

POLLTRACK'S 2014 U.S. SENATE RACE RATING CHART

Posted Sep 30, 2014 at 10:37 AM by Maurice Berger

It's that time of election cycle, again! PollTrack's U.S. Senate Race Rating Chart will launch in a few minutes. Stay Tuned!

LA: Democratic Incumbent Senator With Slight Lead

Posted Sep 30, 2014 at 9:46 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by CNN/ORC International in Louisiana, incumbent Democratic US Sen. Mary Landrieu  holds a modest lead over GOP challenger  Bill Cassidy in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 40%. But, as CNN notes, "this is Louisiana, and the election system can be complicated. There are nine candidates -- Republicans, Democrats, and a Libertarian -- on the ballot this November, and if no candidate crosses the 50% threshold, the race moves into a December runoff between the top two contenders."

LA: Democratic Incumbent Senator In Trouble

Posted Sep 29, 2014 at 8:16 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Fox News reports that GOP challenger Bill Cassidy leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, 51%to 38%

 

NC: Democratic Incumbent In The Lead

Posted Sep 25, 2014 at 10:22 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Fox News in North Carolina reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan leads GOP challenger Thom Tillis in the race for U.S. Senate, 41% to 36%

Michigan US Senate: Democrat In The Lead

Posted Sep 24, 2014 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Denno Research in Michigan reports that Democrat Gary Peters holds a +7% lead over Republican Terri Lynn Land in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 38%.

Iowa US Senate: Deadlocked

Posted Sep 23, 2014 at 8:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen in Iowa reports that Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley are now tied in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 43%.

KS US Senate: Incumbent Trials Independent Challenger

Posted Sep 22, 2014 at 8:42 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen in Kansas reports that independent candidate Greg Orman leads incumbent Republican Pat Roberts for U.S. Senate, 45% to 40%.

NH US Senate: Democrat Widens Lead

Posted Sep 18, 2014 at 8:11 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by New England College in New Hampshire reports that Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads GOP challenger Scott Brown by double-digits, 51% to 40%.

MN US Senate: Race No Longer Close

Posted Sep 17, 2014 at 8:50 AM by Maurice Berger

The U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, once close, now looks like a walk for the Democratic incumbent, Al Franken. A new poll by the Minneapolis Star Tribune Minnesota reports that Franken holds a double digit lead over GOP challenger Mike McFadden, 49% to 36%.

Good News For Democrats in NC Senate Race

Posted Sep 15, 2014 at 7:58 AM by Maurice Berger

In what may be good news for Democrats hoping to hold onto the Senate, a new American Insights poll in North Carolina finds incumbent Democratic US Sen. Kay Hagan with a +9% point lead over Republican challenger Thom Tillis in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 34%. And a new survey by Elon University poll reports a lead of 4% for Hagan, 45% to 41%

GA US Senate: Is Perdue In Trouble?

Posted Sep 10, 2014 at 9:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by SurveyUSA in Georgia reports that Republican David Perdue's lead over Michelle Nunn in the race for US Senate has declined -6% over the past three weeks, and is now 47% to 44%.

Minnesotta US Senate: Franken Well Ahead

Posted Sep 04, 2014 at 7:55 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Al Franken holds a comfortable lead over GOP challenger Mike McFadden, 51% to 42%.

KS US Senate: Is Incumbent In Trouble?

Posted Aug 28, 2014 at 8:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by SurveyUSA in Kansas reports that incumbent GOP Sen. Pat Roberts holds only a 5% lead over Democratic challenger Chad Taylor in the U.S. Senate race, 37% to 32%, with independent Greg Orman at 20%.

NH US Senate: Race Tightens

Posted Aug 25, 2014 at 9:27 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by WMUR in New Hampshire reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's lead over Republican challenger Scott Brown, once at 12%, has dwindled to +2% in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 44%.

Georgia US Senate: Conflicting Polling

Posted Aug 21, 2014 at 9:10 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Hicks Evaluation Group poll in Georgia reports that Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn in the U.S. Senate race by six points, 48% to 42%. But a Hicks Evaluation Group poll in Georgia reports that Deal and Carter are deadlocked at 45%.


KY U.S. Senate: McConnell Inches Ahead In Reelection Race

Posted Aug 19, 2014 at 9:22 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in Kentucky reports that incumbent GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell had taken a slight lead over Democratic challenger Allison Lundergran Grimes in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 40%, with Libertarian David Patterson at 7%.

GOP With Slight Lead On Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Aug 07, 2014 at 9:44 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by NBC/WSJ/Marist reports that Americans "are divided on congressional control for the upcoming midterm elections." By a margin of 43% to 41%, voters say they want to see congressional Republicans stay in control of the House, and, by the same margin, the Senate.

HI US Senate: Who Is Ahead?

Posted Aug 05, 2014 at 9:22 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Civil Beat in Hawaii reports that incumbent Sen. Brian Schatz leads Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, 49% to 41%. Another poll, however, by Hawaii News Now/Star Advertiser Hawaii reports the opposite, with Hanabusa leading Schatz by eight points in their Democratic primary race, 50% to 42%.

GA US Senate: Conflicting Polls

Posted Jul 28, 2014 at 8:38 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen Reports in Georgia reports that Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn in the U.S. Senate race by six points, 46% to 40%. But a new Landmark Communications survey tells another story: in it, Nunn leads by four points, 47% to 43%.

CO US Senate: Extremely Tight Race

Posted Jul 24, 2014 at 9:45 AM by Maurice Berger

In the US Senate race in Colorado, a new Quinnipiac poll reports that the race is extremely close, with 44% for U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, the Republican challenger, and 42% for Sen. Mark Udall, the Democratic incumbent;10% remain undecided.

Michigan US Senate: Democrat Ahead

Posted Jul 21, 2014 at 9:54 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by EPIC-MRA in Michigan Michigan reports that Democrat Gary Peters leads Republican Terri Lynn Land in the U.S. Senate race by +9%-- 45% to 36%.

NH US Senate: Democratic Incumbent Ahead

Posted Jul 17, 2014 at 8:08 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by NBC News/Marist in New Hampshire reports that Democratic incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads GOP challenger by Scott Brown by +8%--50% to 42%.

Iowa US Senate: Deadlocked

Posted Jul 16, 2014 at 4:48 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by NBC News/Marist in Iowa reports that Democrat Bruce Braley and Repu Joni Ernst are tied in the race for U.S. Senate, 43% to 43%.

VA US Senate: Warner Holds Huge Lead

Posted Jun 26, 2014 at 2:18 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen in Virginia reports that incumbent Democratic US Sen. Mark Warner holds a huge lead over GOP challenger Ed Gillespie (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 36%.

MN US Senate: Franken Holds Modest Lead

Posted Jun 19, 2014 at 12:12 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Survey USA in Minnesota reports that incumbent Democratic US Sen. Al Franken leads GOP challenger Michael McFadden by just +6% in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 42%.


Michigan US Senate: Democrat Slightly Ahead

Posted Jun 17, 2014 at 8:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Mitchell Research in Michigan reports that Democrat Gary Peters leads Republican Terri Lynn Land in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 42%.

CO US Senate: Republican Challenger Ahead

Posted Jun 16, 2014 at 9:41 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Magellan Strategies in Colorado, Republican challenger Cory Gardner leads incumbent Democratic Mark Udall in the race for U.S. Senate, 47% to 45%.

KS US Senate: GOP Incumbent Leads By +7%

Posted Jun 10, 2014 at 10:25 AM by Maurice Berger

While most recent surveys show a virtually tied race, a new poll by Rasmussen in Kentucky shows  incumbent GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell leading his Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes by seven points, 48% to 41%.




Iowa US Senate: Republican In The Lead

Posted Jun 09, 2014 at 12:19 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll suggests that the Democratic candidate for Iowa US Senate, recently in the lead, may now be in trouble. The survey, by Loras College, reports that Republican Joni Ernst now leads Democrat Bruce Braley, 48% to 42%.

MI US Senate: Democrat Ahead

Posted Jun 04, 2014 at 9:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by  EPIC-MRA in Michigan reports that Democrat Gary Peters leads Republican Terri Lynn Land in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 38% with 18% still undecided.

NC US Senate: Democrat Behind

Posted Jun 02, 2014 at 9:44 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Civitas Institute in North Carolina reports that GOP challenger Thom Tillis leads incumbent Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race by three points, 39% to 36%, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 8%.

GA US Senate: Democrat Nunn Ahead

Posted May 27, 2014 at 8:24 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen in Georgia reports that Democrat Michelle Nunn leads both possible GOP candidates in the U.S. Senate race. She leads Jack Kingston, 47% to 41%, and is ahead of David Perdue, 45% to 42%.

KY US Senate: Razor Close

Posted May 23, 2014 at 1:10 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Survey USA in Kentucky reports a razor close U.S. Senate race, with Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes edging incumbent GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell, 43% to 42%.

NH US Senate: Democratic Incumbent Ahead By Double-Digits

Posted May 21, 2014 at 5:37 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Vox Populi polling in New Hampshire reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads potential GOP challenger Scott Brown by double-digits in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 35%.


LA US Senate: Tied

Posted May 19, 2014 at 8:51 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Southern Media & Opinion Research poll reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu the nonpartisan primary for US Senate with 36%, followed closely by republican cchallenge Bill Cassidy at 35%

CO U.S. Senate: Race Remains Close

Posted May 14, 2014 at 8:21 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall (D) leads GOP challenger Cory Gardener in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 43%; 10% are undecided.

NC US Senate: A Virtual Tie

Posted May 13, 2014 at 9:06 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen in North Carolina reports that GOP challengerThom Tillis now leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in the race for U.S. Senate, 45% to 44%

KS US Senate: GOP Incumbent In Virtual Tie

Posted May 12, 2014 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Hickman Analytics poll in Kentucky reports that GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell barely edges out his Democratic opponent Alison Lundergran Grimes in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 45%.

CO U.S. Senate: A Virtual Tie

Posted Apr 30, 2014 at 9:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in Colorado reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Udall holds an insignificant +1% lead over GOP challenger Cory Gardner in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 44%.

KY U.S. Senate: McConnell Ahead In Reelection Race

Posted Apr 29, 2014 at 9:59 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Gravis Marketing in Kentucky reports that incumbent GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell holds a solid lead over Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 36%. Other recent polls have reported a considerably closer race. 

NY TIMES Poll: Four Southern Senate Race Close

Posted Apr 24, 2014 at 8:35 AM by Maurice Berger

Surveys conducted by The New York Times suggest close US Senate races in three of four southern states:


Arkansas: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 46%, Tom Cotton (R) 36%

Kentucky: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 44%, Alison Lundergran Grimes (D) 43%

Louisiana: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 42%, Bill Cassidy (R) 18%

 

North Carolina: Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 42%, Thom Tillis (R) 40%

KS US Senate: GOP Incumbent Holding Strongl

Posted Apr 21, 2014 at 8:16 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen in Kansas reports that incumbent Republican  US Sen. Pat Roberts holds a significant lead over potential Democratic challenger Kathleen Sebelius, 54% to 37%.

NH US Senate: Democratic Incumbent Ahead

Posted Apr 15, 2014 at 9:50 PM by Maurice Berger

 

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in New Hampshire reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen lead Republican challenger Scott Brown in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 41%. Another survey by WMUR also shows Shaheen leading 45% to 39%.

Control of US Senate: A Red Flag For Democrats In NC?

Posted Apr 11, 2014 at 7:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new SurveyUSA poll in North Carolina reports that Democratic US Sen. Kay Hagan now trails all five possible Republicans she might face in her re-election race this year. In this must win state for Democrats, are Hagan's numbers a red flag?

VA US Senate: Democrat Way Ahead

Posted Apr 02, 2014 at 9:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Democrats can take comfort in this year's US Senate race in Virginia. A new poll by Quinnipiac reports that the incumbent Mark Warner leads Republican Ed Gillespie by double-digits, 46% to 31%, with Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis at 6%.

Montana US Senate: Republican With Double-Digit Lead

Posted Mar 27, 2014 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Rasmussen in Montana repors that Republican Steve Daines has a double-digit lead over Democratic incumbent of John Walsh in the race for U.S. Senate, 51% to 37%.

McCain Most Unpopular US Senator

Posted Mar 25, 2014 at 7:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that GOP Sen. John McCain is now the least popular U.S. Senator in the country: "Only 30% of Arizonans approve of the job McCain is doing to 54% who disapprove. There isn't much variability in his numbers by party- he's at 35/55 with Republicans, 29/53 with Democrats, and 25/55 with independents, suggesting he could be vulnerable to challenges in both the primary and general elections the next time he's up."

SD US Senate: Republican Way Ahead

Posted Mar 19, 2014 at 8:17 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Rasmussen Reports in South Dakota reports that former GOP Gov. Mike Rounds holds a huge +20% lead over Democrat Rick Weiland in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 31%. 

NJ US Senate: Booker Holding Steady

Posted Mar 11, 2014 at 7:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press in New Jersey reports that Democratic Sen. Cory Booker has solid approval ratings:
"Currently, 47% of New Jersey voters approve of the job Booker is doing as U.S. Senator compared to just 20% who disapprove. Another 32% have no opinion." Furthermore, in a hypothetical match up in his fall bid for a full six-year term, Booker leads Murray Sabrin (R), 58% to 25%.

NH US Senate: Has The State Moved Solidly Blue

Posted Mar 10, 2014 at 11:31 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Boston Herald/Suffolk University in New Hampshire suggests that the state's 2014 US Senate race may be difficult for the GOP, or at least for former Massachusetts GOP Sen. Scott Brown, who has toyed with the idea of running in the state. Brown is now trailing Democrat Sen. Jeanne Shaheen  by a significant 52% to 39% margin in a general election match-up.

US Senate 2014: GOP In Stronger Position Than Democrats

Posted Mar 05, 2014 at 6:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Washington Post-ABC News reports that Republicans are "in a stronger position than Democrats in the states with Senate races this fall and more than holding their own in the battle for control of the House. In the 34 states with Senate races, 50% of voters say they favor Republicans and 42% favor Democrats. . .  [this] despite the Republican Party's poor image nationally and its deficit on some important issues. About two in three Americans say the GOP is out of touch 'with the concerns of most people in the United States today.'"

NH US Senate: Democrat Incumbent With Solid Lead

Posted Feb 24, 2014 at 8:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in New Hampshire reports that Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leads possible GOO challenger Scott Brown by +9%, 47% to 38%.

Hawaii US Senate: Is Brian Schatz In Trouble?

Posted Feb 18, 2014 at 12:37 PM by Maurice Berger

A just released Hawaii poll reports that the Democratic incumbent US Senator, Brian Schatz, may be in trouble in his reelection bid. The survey reports that Democratic U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa has pulled ahead of Schatz in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, 48% to 40%, with 11% undecided.

Is GOP Poised To Take Senate From Democrats

Posted Feb 11, 2014 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by The Monkey Cage, Republicans now have a 54% chance of retaking control of the U.S. Senate in this year's midterm elections: "Our initial Senate forecast for 2014 suggested that Republicans had a solid chance of taking back the Senate.  Now we want to show how they can do it.  Our model suggests, in fact, if Republicans win the Senate elections in only four states -- Alaska, Louisiana, Iowa, and Montana -- then they are very likely to take control of the chamber."

KY US Senate: McConnell Falling Behind

Posted Feb 10, 2014 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Could the Kentucky U.S. Senate race this result result in a Democratic pickup? A new poll suggests that it's possible. The survey by Herald-Leader/WKYT Bluegrass reports that Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes holds a modest +4% advantage over GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, 46% to 42%. One big problem the the Republican: his approval rating is under water at 32% to 60%.

Alaska US Senate: Democratic Incumbent Ahead

Posted Feb 05, 2014 at 9:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in Alaska reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich "continues to lead his potential Republican opponents for reelection by small margins, and that third party candidates could play a spoiler role in helping him win this fall."

VA US Senate: Democrat Way Ahead

Posted Jan 30, 2014 at 8:24 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Christopher Newport University in Virginia reports that U.S. Sen. Mark Warner(leads GOP challenger Ed Gillespie by 20 points, 50% to 30%. With a 63% job approval rating, Warner is in an excellent position for reelection.

KY US Senate: McConnell Modestly Ahead

Posted Jan 28, 2014 at 8:54 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite challenges from his right Flank, a Human Events-Gravis Marketing poll in Kentucky reports that Sen. Mitch McConnell is  ahead in his quest for reelection: He leads Democratic challenger Allison Lundergran Grimes by five points, 42% to 37%. McConnell also leads GOP primary challenger Matt Bevin by double-digits, 53% to 31%

GOP Now Leads Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Nov 19, 2013 at 8:21 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Fox News poll reports that Republicans now lead the generic congressional ballot, 43 to 40%, a startling tun-around from last month's survey in which Democrats led, 45% to 37%.

KY US Senate: McConnell Vulnerable in 2014

Posted Oct 31, 2013 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Kentucky suggests that incumbent GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell may have an uphill climb in next year's reelection race. In a hypothetical match up, he now trails Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes, 45% to 43%. With a GOP primary challenger on his Tea Party right, McConnell now seems quite vulnerable, a position made more so by his earlier support of the government shutdown: 48% of Kentucky voters say they are less likely to support him for reelection because this support; 34% say they are more likely to support him. Stay tuned.  

 

NJ US Senate: Polls Show Significant Lead

Posted Oct 15, 2013 at 10:08 AM by Maurice Berger

 

Polls continue to report a significant lead for Democrat Cory Booker in tomorrow's special US Senate election in New Jersey. A just released Quinnipiac poll finds Booker leading Republican Steve Lonegan in tomorrow's U.S. Senate race by +14%, 54% to 40%.

NJ US Senate: Is Booker Way Ahead Or His His Lead Narrowing

Posted Oct 14, 2013 at 7:38 PM by Maurice Berger

Contradictory polling in this Wednesday's special election in New Jersey. According to a poll by Monmouth, Democrat Cory Booker's once huge lead over Republican Steve Lonegan in the U.S. Senate race has dropped to +10%--52% to 42%. But a just released poll by Rutgers reports a commanding Booker lead of +22%--58% to 36%

US Senate: Booker Holds Comfortable Lead in NJ

Posted Oct 10, 2013 at 7:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in New Jersey reports that Democrat Cory Booker leads Republican Steve Lonegan by a comfortable +12% margin in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 41%.

Will the Government Shutdown Hurt The GOP?

Posted Oct 02, 2013 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger

According a new Quinnipiac poll, the government shutdown has great potential to hurt GOP chances in next year's federal cycle: "Looking at the 2014 Congressional races, voters pick a generic Democrat over a generic Republican candidate 43% to 34%, the widest Democratic margin measured so far."

NJ Special Election: Booker Holds Big Lead

Posted Sep 30, 2013 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Kean University in New Jersey continues to report a lopsided race for U.S. Senate: Democrat Cory Booker leads Republican Steve Lonegan in the special election by a wide margin, 52% to 33%.

NJ Special Election: How Big Is Booker's Lead?

Posted Sep 24, 2013 at 8:04 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Stockton Polling Institute in New Jersey reports that Democrat Cory Booker holds a commanding +26% lead over Republican Steve Lonegan in the U.S. Senate race, 58% to 32%. Meanwhile, a new poll by Quinnipiac poll tells a somewhat different story. It has Booker leading Lonegan by +12% among likely voters, 53% to 41%.

LA US 2014 Senate: Democratic Advantage

Posted Sep 16, 2013 at 12:10 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Louisiana finds that incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu leads GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy by ten points in her 2014 reelection bid, 50% to 40%. 

Arkansas U.S. Senate: Pryor Ahead

Posted Aug 09, 2013 at 8:24 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by AFSCME in Arkansas, incumbent U.S. Senator, Democrat Mark Pryor, leads GOP Rep. Tom Cotton in his re-election race by eight points, 43% to 35%.

NJ U.S. Senate: Booker Headed For Big Primary Win

Posted Aug 08, 2013 at 9:16 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey, Newark Mayor Democrat Cory Booker heads into next week's Democratic Senate primary with a huge margin over his challengers. He leads with 54% of likely primary voters, followed by Rep. Frank Pallone at 17%, Rep. Rush Holt at 15%, and Sheila Oliver at 5%. In the general election match-up, Booker crushes likely GOP nominee Steve Lonegan, 54% to 29%, among registered voters.

Is McConnell In Trouble?

Posted Aug 05, 2013 at 8:51 AM by Maurice Berger

Is Mitch McConnell in trouble in his reelection bid? For the second time in a week, a poll in Kentucky--this one from the Democratic affliated Mellman Group--reports that Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes is leading GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 42%.

KY US Senate: McConnell Has Huge Lead Over GOP Rival

Posted Aug 02, 2013 at 8:37 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the GOP-affiliated Wenzel Strategies in Kentucky reports that Sen. Mitch McConnell holds a huge lead over challenger Matt Bevin in the 2014 Republican primary, 59% to 20%.

WY US Senate: Cheney Has Uphill Battle

Posted Jul 25, 2013 at 9:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Harper Polling in Wyoming reports that incumbent US Sen. Mike Enzi dominates challenger Liz Cheney in a Republican U.S. Senate primary, 55% to 21%.

HI: New Poll, Different Result

Posted Jul 03, 2013 at 8:42 AM by Maurice Berger

Another poll in the Democratic primary for Hawaii US Senate shows a different result from a poll released earlier in the week. The survey, by Clarity Campaigns-- and paid for by EMILY's List -- reports that Rep. Colleen Hanabusa holds an 11% lead over Sen. Brian Schatz in next year's Democratic primary, 46% to 35%.

HI US Senate: Close Democratic Primary

Posted Jul 02, 2013 at 8:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Civil Beat in Hawaii finds US Sen. Brian Schatz with a narrow lead over Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic US Senate primary, 36% to 33%

Arkansas US Senate: Tough Road For Democrats

Posted Jun 28, 2013 at 8:17 AM by Maurice Berger

Arkansas looks like to tough hold for Democrats in the 2014 US Senate cycle.  A new poll by Basswood Research in the state reports that Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor just edges likely GOP challenger Tom Cotton, 41% to 40%.

MA US Senate: Final Poll Shows Democrat Comfortably Ahead

Posted Jun 25, 2013 at 8:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A final Suffolk poll in today's special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusettes reports that Democrat Rep. Edward Markey maintains a comfortable lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez, 52% to 42%. The results are in sync with other polls posted by PollTrack over the past week.

MA US Senate: Markey Ahead

Posted Jun 24, 2013 at 8:24 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Western New England University reports that Democratic Rep. Ed Markey leads Republican Gabriel Gomez by +8% in tomorrow's special U.S. Senate election, 49% to 41%, with 9% undecided. With other polls showing Markey well ahead and at or near the 50% mark, it appears likely that he will win.

MA US Senate: Democrat Solidly Ahead

Posted Jun 18, 2013 at 7:12 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Boston Globe reports that Democratic Rep. Edward Markey holds a significant lead over GOP rival Gabriel Gomez, 54% to 41%, in the final week of the special U.S. Senate election.

MA US Senate: Democrat Ahead

Posted Jun 17, 2013 at 12:42 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Harper Polling in Massachusetts reports that Democratic Rep. Ed Markey holds a significant 12% lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez, 49% to 37%.

NJ US Senate: Booker Crushs His Democratic Opponents

Posted Jun 14, 2013 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Monmouth in New Jersey reports that Cory Booker holds a commanding lead among potential voters in the August Democratic primary for US Senate. Booker crushes his opponents at 63%, compared to 10% for Rush Holt, 8% for Frank Pallone, and 6% for Sheila Oliver.

MA US Senate: Democrat In The Lead

Posted Jun 10, 2013 at 9:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Massachusetts reports that Democrat Rep. Ed Markey leads Republican Gabriel Gomez by 8% in the special U.S. Senate race, 47% to 39%. A University of Massachusett poll reports an 11% lead for Markey, pool51% to 40%.

Democrats Ahead In Generic Congressional Ballet

Posted May 24, 2013 at 7:12 AM by Maurice Berger

While a year-and-a-half away, the 2014 election is not far from the mind of pollsters (and political parties). A new poll by Quinnipiac reports that American voters say they are more likely to vote Democratic than Republican for Congress in 2014 -- 41% to 37%. If this holds true, and Democrats gain seats in congress, it would, according to Quinnipiac, "violate the historical model of the president's party losing ground in the sixth year of a presidency."

Americans Access Congressional Leaders

Posted May 23, 2013 at 6:23 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Gallup, "the top Republican and Democratic leaders in the U.S. House and Senate are a generally unpopular foursome, with Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi being the most well-known, but also the least well-liked. 31% of Americans view Pelosi favorably and 48% unfavorably. Her resulting net -17 image score compares with -11 for Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, -10 for Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner, and -8 for Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell."

Are Democrats Too Complacent In Massachusetts?

Posted May 20, 2013 at 4:04 PM by Maurice Berger

Stuart Rothenberg notes that democratic complacency in the 2013 special election in Massachusetts to fill the US Senate seat vacated by John Kerry could backfire: "The special election . . . took an interesting turn this week, when former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez drew more than 50 percent of the vote to win the GOP nomination. . . . The total GOP primary vote was less than what Lynch received in the Democratic race, and the Bay State’s Democratic bent is undeniable. But Gomez has an interesting story, and at least the GOP didn’t nominate an old white guy who had served in the Massachusetts Legislature. . . Democrats won’t allow themselves to be surprised the way they were when Scott P. Brown beat Martha Coakley in the last Senate special election, in early 2010, and the national party’s image can’t do anything but hurt Gomez’s already uphill chances. But there is no reason to rush to judgment on this race, at least for a couple of weeks, and it’s worth watching to see how it unfolds. Obviously, Markey begins as the clear favorite.

Markey Ahead In MA Special Election, But By How Much?

Posted May 10, 2013 at 8:22 AM by Maurice Berger

Two conflicting polls on the state of the special election to fill Secretary of State's John Kerry's US Senate seat: a new WBUR poll in Massachusetts reports that Democrat Rep. Edward Markey leads Republican Gabriel Gomez, 41% to 35%. This would suggest a very competitive race. But a contemporaneous Suffolk University poll finds Markey ahead by 17% points, 52% to 35%.

MA US Senate Race: Headed For Upset?

Posted May 08, 2013 at 7:54 AM by Maurice Berger

Is the special election to fill the US Senate seat vacated by John Kerry in Massachusetts head for an upset, much like the race to fill the seat of the late-Edward Kennedy? Possibly. A new survey by  Public Policy Polling reports that the race is a surprisingly close , with Democrat Rep. Ed Markey leading Republican Gabriel Gomez by just +4%--44% to 40%.

Toomey's Approval Up In PA

Posted Apr 29, 2013 at 6:54 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Quinnipiac reports that US Senator Pat Toomey's co-sponsorship of the gun background-check amendment has helped push the Republican's approval rate to 48%, the highest point of his three-plus-year term. 30% disapprove of his performance.

Who Is Ahead In MA Senate Race?

Posted Apr 25, 2013 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Western New England University in Massachusetts reports that Rep. Edward Markey leads Rep. Stephen Lynch in the Democratic primary to fill US Secretary of State, John Kerry's US Senate seat, 44% to 34%. On the GOP side, Gabriel Gomez holds a slim lead over Michael Sullivan, 33% to 27%.

Democrat Incumbent Ahead In VA US Senate Race

Posted Apr 02, 2013 at 9:49 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the University of Mary Washington in Virginia reports that Democratoc US Sen. Mark Warner lead GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell In a hypothetical 2014 match up for U.S. Senate, 51% to 35%.

Booker Democratic Candidate To Beat In 2014 NJ US Senate Primary

Posted Feb 20, 2013 at 10:25 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press in New Jersey reports that Cory Booker would have handily beat Sen. Frank Lautenberg in a possible Democratic Senate primary in 2014, 40% to 25%, numbers that offer one reason why Lautenberg chose bot to run for reelection.

Markey Ahead In MA Democratic Senate Primary

Posted Feb 19, 2013 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Which Democrat is in the strongest position to take the Democratic nomination in the special election to fill the US Senate seat in Massachusetts just vacated by John Kerry?  A new poll by  WBUR reports that Rep. Ed Markey leads Rep. Stephen Lynch (D) among likely Democratic U.S. Senate primary voters, 38% to 31% with 4% preferring another candidate. 26% remain undecided.

Will Democrats Hold On To The US Senate In 2014?

Posted Feb 14, 2013 at 9:04 AM by Maurice Berger

Will Democrats hold on to their majority in the US Senate in 2014? The answer may rest with the quality--and popularity--of the candidates advanced by each party. One place where Democratic hopes have risen is Iowa, home of retiring Democratic Senator, Tom Harkin. A new poll from the Des Moines Register reports that a majority of voters think U.S. secretary of agriculture Tom Vilsack would be an appealing Senate candidate, 56% to 35%. Can he beat a GOP challenger in one of the nation's most purple states. Remarks pollster Ann Selzer: "This is the kind of poll finding that launches campaigns."Stay tuned.

Would Booker Make A Stronger Candidate for US Senate In NJ?

Posted Dec 07, 2012 at 8:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in New Jersey reports that if Democratic US Sen. Frank Lautenberg should retire -- or even if he seeks reelection -- Newark Mayor Cory Booker has a clear shot at the seat. By a 59% to 22% margin Democrats say they would prefer Booker over Lautenberg in 2014. And if the seat opens up by virtue of Lautenberg's retirement, Booker emerges as the strong favorite: 48% prefer Booker as their candidate compared to 17% for Rep. Rob Andrews and 13% for Rep. Frank Pallone (both have expressed interest in the race).

Abortion Became A Central Issue In Some US Senate Races

Posted Nov 15, 2012 at 9:09 AM by Maurice Berger

CNN's analysis of exit polls in the state of Missouri conclude that abortion played an important role in Democratic US Senator Claire McCaskill''s ability to overcome her republican challenger, even though she entered the race as a clear underdog. CNN writes, "in Missouri, Republican Senate candidate Rep. Todd Akin said in a local news interview that women have biological ways to avoid pregnancy after a "legitimate rape." Tuesday's early exit polls show 51% of Missouri voters say they believe abortion should be legal all or most of the time. Of those voters, exit polls show 76% supporting Akin's opponent, Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill while 19% voted for Akin. Forty-seven percent of Missouri's voters say abortion should be illegal. Exit polls show Akin takes 67% of this group's votes while 27% of people who think abortion should be illegal supported Sen. McCaskill."

With Democrats In Missouri and Ohio Winning

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 10:18 PM by Maurice Berger

. . . their US Senate seats, it is now certain that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate. 

Final National Polling Average Tomorrow Morning

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 10:34 PM by Maurice Berger

Due to one late tracking poll (by International Business Daily-TIPP), PollTrack's final national polling average will be issued tomorrow morning. The US Senate Race Chart and the Presidential Maps will be finalized by midnight tonight EST.  

 

US Senate Race Chart Coming Soon

Posted Aug 17, 2012 at 9:40 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's US Senate Race Chart will be coming soon. With PollTrack's outstanding track record on predicting the outcome of US Senate races--and the potential of a very close overall race for control of the Senate--this year's chart should be very exciting.

Election 2012: Missouri Tied?

Posted Aug 15, 2012 at 9:25 AM by Maurice Berger

In another sign that the Romney campaign may be in trouble, a new poll by SurveyUSA in Missouri (taken before Paul Ryan was aded to the GOP ticket) reports a virtually tied race, with Mitt Romney barely ahead of President Obama, 45% to 44%. While the state served as a nearly perfect bellwether of presidential cycles in the 20th-century, it has recently trended Republican. Indeed, by contrast, SurveyUSA reports that in the state's upcoming US Senate race between incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill and GOP challenger Todd Akin, the Republican leads by a significant +11%, 51% to 40%. Will the addition of Paul Ryan help Romney in the state of Missouri, as well as nationally? Stay tuned.

Massachusetts US Senate: A Virtual Tie

Posted May 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM by Maurice Berger

The US Senate race in Massachusetts--potentially one of the closest, most expensive, and hardest fought in the 2012 cycle--remains nearly deadlocked. A new poll by Suffolk University reports that the Republican incumbent, Scott Brown holds a razor thin lead over Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren, 48% to 47%. The survey's analysis continues: "Brown has fallen short of the coveted 50% mark for an incumbent, while Elizabeth Warren has converted some undecided voters since February. This leaves both campaigns no choice but to spend tens of millions of dollars in an all-out war to woo the five percent of voters who will decide this election."

Kerrey Way Behind In Nebraska

Posted May 24, 2012 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger

Although the candidacy of former Sen. Bob Kerrey was seen as the Democrat's best hope of saving the seat now being vacated by Democrat Ben Nelson, Rasmussen, in the first poll of Nebraska's U.S. Senate race after this week's GOP primary, finds GOP candidate Deb Fischer almost +20% ahead of Kerrey, 56% to 38%.

For First Time, Majority Blame Obama For Bad Economy

Posted Oct 24, 2011 at 10:54 PM by Maurice Berger

A poll USA Today/Gallup indicates that a majority of Americans--for the first time--blame President Obama for the nation's economic problems. 53% believe that Obama deserves "a great deal" or a "moderate amount" of the blame for the economic problems that the country currently faces. Nevertheless, an even larger number -- 69% -- believe that former President George Bush deserves a "great deal" or a "moderate amount" of blame for the economy.

Election 2012: Rick Perry Leads In Iowa?

Posted Aug 19, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by We Ask America asked Iowa Republicans who they to see win the GOP nomination for president in 2012. The poll suggests that in the Hawkeye State, at least, there may be a new frontrunner: Rick Perry comes out on top with 29%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 17% and Mitt Romney at 15%.

Democrats Now Lead In Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Aug 17, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Has the recent debt ceiling negotations taken its toll on the Republicans in congress? A new Gallup poll suggests that the answer may be yes. The survey reports that Democrats lead Republicans in the 2012 congressional elections among registered voters, 51% to 44%, when asked which party's candidate they would support in their district "if the elections for Congress were being held today."  Gallup observes: "The seven-percentage-point edge for Democratic congressional candidates, nationally, contrasts with ties or Republican leads in most Gallup polls leading up to the 2010 midterm elections. However, the Democratic advantage is not as large as those they enjoyed in the 2006 and 2008 congressional election cycles -- each of which produced a Democratic majority in Congress. The Democrats averaged a 10-point lead over Republicans among registered voters in the year prior to the 2008 elections and an 11-point advantage leading up to the 2006 elections"

Ohio 2012: Trending Democratic?

Posted Jul 29, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger

It what can be read as good news for President Obama in Ohio, A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has a commanding lead over two potential GOP challengers. Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandel, 49% to 34%, and tops State Sen. Kevin Coughlin, 50% to 32%.Combined with the exceptionally low approval rating of the state's Republican Governor, these numbers suggests that the closely divided state is trending slightly more Democratic in recent days

Wisonsin US Senate 2012: Russ Feingold To The Rescue?

Posted May 26, 2011 at 1:21 AM by Maurice Berger

Can Wisconsin Democrats save the US Senate seat being vacated in 2012 with the retirement of Herb Kohl? A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin suggests that one strong Democratic candidate may be former US Sen. Russ Feingold, defeated in late year's GOP wipe-out. In hypothetical match ups, Feingold leads Tommy Thompson (R), 52% to 42%, Mark Neumann (R), 53% to 41%, JB Van Hollen (R), 53% to 38%, and Jeff Fitzgerald (R), 54% to 39%.

Are US Voters Angry With Incumbents?

Posted May 20, 2011 at 12:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released USA Today/Gallup survey roports that a mere 28% of registered voters believe that most members of Congress deserve re-election; this number ties the low set last year, before the GOP's historic gains. Gallup observes: "The anti-incumbent mood that led to sweeping changes in Congress after the 2010 elections persists, and the accompanying change in House leadership has not fundamentally altered the way Americans view Congress. Thus, incumbents remain vulnerable heading into the 2012 election cycle, though perhaps not quite as vulnerable as in 2010, given that voters are now more inclined to say their own member deserves re-election."

AZ US Senate 2012: Giffords Leads In Hypothetical Match Up

Posted May 05, 2011 at 11:00 PM by Maurice Berger

If critically wounded Democratic U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords were to run in the 2012 Arizona US Senate race, a new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona reports that she would start out with a 7 point lead in a hypothetical match up with likely GOP candidate Rep. Jeff Flake, 48% to 41%.

MA US Senate 2012: Republican Brown Looks Safe

Posted Apr 06, 2011 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite the state's overwhelming Democratic tilt, Massachusetts continues to support incumbent GOP U.S. Senator Scott Brown. An internal Democratic poll suggests his popularity is on the rise: "The survey, which has been seen by at least one D.C. insider and was detailed for Salon, measured Brown's approval rating at 73% -- easily surpassing the scores for Barack Obama and the state's two top Democrats, Gov. Deval Patrick and Sen. John Kerry. It also found him running over the magic 50% mark against every potential Democratic challenger, and crushing the strongest perceived Democrats (Reps. Michael Capuano and Ed Markey and former Rep. Marty Meehan) by double-digit margins. The results only grew closer when respondents were primed with negative information about Brown."

Possible Good News For Obama: Ohio Democratic Senator Ahead

Posted Mar 30, 2011 at 1:04 AM by Maurice Berger

In what may spell good news for the President's reelection efforts next year, a new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown ahead in his reelection effort, suggesting a lessing of GOP gains in this ultimate swing state. Brown is supported over an unnamed GOP challenger by 45% to 29%. Additionally, voters say--by a margin of 45% to 30%--that Brown deserves a second term. Does this suggest a true reversal of GOP fortunes in the state? Time will tell. 

Republican Sen. Scott Brown Popular In Massachusetts

Posted Mar 17, 2011 at 11:51 PM by Maurice Berger

Republican U.S. Senator Scott Brown is showing surprising strength in the bluest of blue state of Massachusetts. A new Western New England College poll reports that 52% of registered voters say Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) deserves to be re-elected, while 28% say he does not deserve to be re-elected. In hypothetical match ups, Brown leads Rep. Mike Capuano (D-MA), 51% to 38%, and tops Elizabeth Warren (D), 51% to 34%.

2012 US Senate: Are The Democrats In Trouble?

Posted Feb 02, 2011 at 12:26 AM by Maurice Berger

An analysis by Politico suggests that the GOP may have an inherent advantage in the 2012 US Senate races, and may well be poised to take over from the Democrats: "Montana Rep. Denny Rehberg will challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in 2012, giving Republicans their first-choice candidate for the race and putting yet another incumbent in serious jeopardy. . . .  [An] Opinion Diagnostics survey of 400 likely Montana voters showed 49 percent backing Rehberg compared to 43 percent for Tester and 8 percent undecided . . . Rehberg’s announcement will mean Republicans have high-profile, formally announced challengers in four states where Democrats are up for reelection: Montana, Missouri (former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman), Nebraska (state Attorney General Jon Bruning) and Virginia (former Sen. George Allen). That’s not to mention the open Senate seat in North Dakota, where Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad’s retirement gives Republicans a strong pickup opportunity, and Florida, where several solid candidates are circling the race against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. Some of these candidates are facing competitive primaries, but the big picture is this: Senate Republicans have already put a sizable list of Democratic seats in play and they only need to net four to hit the 51-seat mark."

DAILY 2010 MIDTERM ELECTION UPDATES

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 3:30 PM by Maurice Berger

Until Election Day, PollTrack will place special emphasis on tracking the 2010 midterm election. Posts to the Presidential blog will be sporadic in order to concentrate on continual polling analysis of hundreds of gubernatorial, U. S. Senate and U.S. House races in our Writing on the Wall blog (on the top left of our homepage).

Cook Report: GOP Could Take The U.S. Senate

Posted Sep 08, 2010 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Charlie Cook, in an analysis that PollTrack believes is valid, suggests that Republicans could also take control of the U.S. Senate in the upcoming midterm elections: "For much of this year, it seemed a near mathematical impossibility that Republicans could score the 10-seat net gain needed to flip the Senate, which is split between 59 Democrats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats and largely vote with the party) and 41 Republicans. As recently as six weeks ago, I wrote in a CongressDailyAM column that a GOP win was 'certainly possible' but 'still fairly unlikely.' Although the 'fairly unlikely' part is still valid, the possibility of a GOP takeover is growing."

Gallup: Public Disapproval Of Congress At Near Low

Posted Jun 29, 2010 at 12:46 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup a mere 20% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, a near record low. Gallup's analysis does not bode well for the party now in power: "This year's low approval ratings for Congress are a potentially ominous sign for President Obama and the Democratic majority in Congress. Gallup has found greater party seat change in Congress in midterm elections when Congress has had low approval ratings. Specifically, in the five midterm elections in which Congress' approval ratings at the time of the election were below 40%, there was an average net change in seats of 29 from the president's party to the opposition."

New Poll Shows Democrats Leading Congressional Generic Ballot

Posted Jun 15, 2010 at 1:10 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Democrats are now leading in the generic congressional ballot. Although the margin is small--43% to 41%--this survey marks the first time since December that PPP shows an advantage for the Democrats.

Check Out PollTrack's Predictions For Today's Primary Races in Writing On The Wall (at Left)

Posted Jun 08, 2010 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger

For up to the minute predictions on today's numerous primary races for governor and U.S. Senate, check out WRITING ON THE WALL.

Check Out PollTrack's Predictions For Today's Primary Races in Writing On The Wall (at Left)

Posted Jun 08, 2010 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger

For up to the minute predictions on today's numerous primary races for governor and U.S. Senate, check out WRITING ON THE WALL.

Democrats In Trouble In 2010 Mideterms?

Posted Jun 02, 2010 at 1:04 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey suggests serious trouble ahead for Democrats in this November's midterm elections: The latest Gallup poll reports that Republicans now lead Democrats in the generic congressional ballot by six points, 49% to 43%. Gallup goes on to note that this is the largest GOP lead in the survey since it began in 1950.

The week Ahead: Senate and Gubernatorial Races

Posted May 16, 2010 at 11:19 PM by Maurice Berger

This week, PollTrack will devote it's coverage to upcoming and competitive U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. We will resume regular coverage next Monday, 24 May.

PPP: Republicans Maintain Lead in Congressional Generic Ballot

Posted Apr 23, 2010 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Republicans continue to lead Democrats in the generic congressional ballot, 47% to 42%. The survey analysis finds that "92% of Republicans are committed to supporting their party this fall while just 86% of Democrats are," a modest enthusiasm gap that could hurt Democrats come November.

Cook Report: Republicans Poised To Take Back Many Seats In The House

Posted Apr 21, 2010 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

In a new and complex report, one of the nation's most experienced analysts suggests that the Democrats may be in trouble in this falls mid-term elections. The Cook Political Report now  projects that come November, the Republicans are poised to gain 30 to 40 seats in the House of Representatives. The GOP needs 40 seats to take control. "If the trend over the past  seven months continues," writes Cook, "the GOP will do even better."

Young Republicans More Enthusiastic About Midterm Elections

Posted Mar 10, 2010 at 12:13 AM by Maurice Berger

In an ominous sign for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections, A Harvard Institute of Politics survey of 18 to 29 year-old voters, reports that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting and participating Democrats, with 41% of Republicans planning on voting, compared to 35% of Democrats and 13% of Independents.

US Senate 2010 Analysis All Week

Posted Feb 09, 2010 at 2:30 AM by Maurice Berger

Through next Monday, the presidential blog will tale a breather as PollTrack devotes is coverage to the analysis of competitive 2010 US Senate races. We'll be posting up at least two posts per day in the WRITING ON THE WALL blog tracking these races.

Support Of Health Care Package Hurting Blue Dog Democrats

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 2:11 AM by Maurice Berger

So-called "Blue Dog" Democrats--moderate Democratic Senators and congressmen in marginally conservative or Republican districts or states--are suffering because of the unpopularity of the health care bill now working its way through congress. A prime example, Sen. Ben Nelson who has campaigned hard to sell Nebraskans on his vote to support the bill: "Nelson, who once enjoyed some of the highest job performance marks in the U.S. Senate, has now seen his approval rating dip below 50 percent in Nebraska, according to The World-Herald Poll. Nelson said the poll results come as no surprise, especially since Nebraskans have been 'bombarded' with millions of dollars in 'misleading advertisements.' He said he expects that people will come to appreciate the health care bill. In the survey, Nelson's job approval rating was 42 percent and his disapproval rating was 48 percent. By comparison, Republican Sen. Mike Johanns of Nebraska, who voted against the bill, had a 63 percent job-approval rating."


GOP Catches Democrats On Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Jul 31, 2009 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

Is the Democratic brand in trouble? After years of leading the Generic Congressional Ballot--often by wide margins--the Democrats have fallen slightly behind. According to a new NPR poll, "The so-called generic ballot question was also very close. Asked whether they would support a Democrat or a Republican for Congress in 2010 if the election were held today, 42 percent said they would choose a Democrat and 43 percent a Republican, a difference well within the poll's margin of error (plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for each number in each question)."

Congressional Generic Ballot Remains Tied

Posted Jun 19, 2009 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Rasmussen Reports, the Congressional Generic Ballot remains tied: "39% would vote for their district’s Democratic congressional candidate while 39% would choose the Republican. Support for both parties dropped one point from last week. Support for Democratic candidates is just one point above its low point for the past year. Support for the GOP is just two points below its highest level found over the same time period. Men favor the GOP by a five-point margin, while women prefer Democrats by the same margin." In what may be a red flag for the Democrats, voters not affiliated with either party favor the GOP 33% to 23%.

Charlie Cook's Crystal Ball: Congressional Midterm Elections, 2010

Posted Jun 10, 2009 at 1:50 AM by Maurice Berger

The brilliant political analyst Charlie Cook--taking an early look at the electoral landscape for the 2010 congressional midterm election--predicts a split decision, "with Republicans picking up a few House seats but losing a Senate seat or two. The difference is that Democrats have the larger number of vulnerable House districts, while Senate Republicans have more seats that are in serious jeopardy."

Cook on the House: "Having gained 54 House seats over the past two elections, Democrats now represent 49 districts that GOP presidential nominee John McCain won last year. By comparison, Republicans represent 34 districts that Obama won. Simple arithmetic indicates that in the absence of overwhelming hostility toward the Republican Party, the GOP ought to gain a few, maybe even a dozen or so, House seats."

Cook on the Senate: "On the Senate side, the math is a bit different and is not driven directly by the results of the past two elections. In 2010, Republicans will be defending 19 seats, only one more than Democrats will. Originally, Republicans would have had 20 seats to defend versus 15 for the Democrats, but that changed with Joe Biden's election to the vice presidency and Hillary Rodham Clinton's selection as secretary of State. Two Democratic seats that would not have been up again until 2014 and 2012, respectively, will be in 2010. Add in Arlen Specter's party switch, and next year's lineup brings almost complete parity in the parties' exposure."

For more of Cook's fascinating analysis click here.

Democrats Move Ahead On The Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted May 28, 2009 at 2:19 AM by Maurice Berger

Parhaps as a testament to President Obama's high level of popularity over the past month--and the public's increasingly negative view of the GOP--Democrats have moved ahead slightly on what had been a tied generic congressional ballot: "Democratic Congressional candidates have moved further ahead of Republicans this week in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot." The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that "41% would vote for their district’s Democratic congressional candidate while 38% would choose the Republican. Support for Democrats is up one point from last week, while support for the GOP has dropped a point. The latest results mark the lowest level of support for the GOP since April 12, while they mark the highest level of support for the Democrats since the end of March."

Generic Congressional Ballot Virtually Tied

Posted Apr 09, 2009 at 1:55 AM by Maurice Berger

In what may be a bit of a red flag for the Obama administration, a new poll of registered voters indicates that they are evening divided in terms of the party they would vote for if congressional elections were held today: "Republicans have pulled within one point of Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 40% would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while 39% would choose the Republican. Support for Democratic congressional candidates fell two points this week, while support for GOP candidates gained one point to tie its highest level this year so far. Three weeks ago, Republicans took a two-point lead over Democrats, their first in several years, but that quickly reversed the following week. Democrats began the year holding a six- or seven-point lead over the GOP for the first several weeks of 2009. Recently, the gap has been smaller. Prior to the current update, Democrats have held a three-or-four point advantage for three of the prior four weeks."

Democratic Support Up A Tick On Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Mar 18, 2009 at 1:11 AM by Maurice Berger

In a bit of bright news for the Obama administrations and congressional Democrats, the party has "managed to move slightly further ahead this week. . . . The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 42% of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while 38% said they would choose the Republican. In recent weeks, the Democratic advantage on the Generic Ballot has ranged from one-to-four points. Democrats enjoy a larger advantage when it comes to partisan identification among the electorate."

Republicans Pull Close in Generic Congresional Ballot

Posted Mar 06, 2009 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

In what may suggest a looming problem for the Obama administration in the 2010 congressional elections, a new Rasmussen survey reports that "the race between Republicans and Democrats has once again tightened up in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. For the third time in the last four weeks, Republicans have pulled to within two points of the Democrats. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 41% of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while 39% said they would choose the Republican. While support for the Democrats has not changed since, support for the GOP has increased two points."

US Voters Growing Impatient With Congress

Posted Feb 16, 2009 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger

When it comes to the nation’s economic issues, a new Rasmussen survey reports, 67% of U.S. voters have more confidence in their own judgment than they do in the average member of Congress. 19% trust members of Congress more, 14% aren’t sure.President Obama only does marginally better: 49% of U.S. voters trust their own judgment more than his when it comes to the economic issues affecting the nation. 39% trust the president more. 12% are not sure whose judgment is better.

The Democratic Brand May Be In Trouble

Posted Feb 11, 2009 at 2:36 AM by Maurice Berger

In an ominous sign for the Democrats, public displeasure with Congress seems to be translating into much decreased support for Democratic legislators. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys found that in the generic congressional balllot, the Democrats’ lead is down to just one percentage point. Forty percent (40%) of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while 39% said they would choose the Republican. "This marks the lowest level of support for the Democrats in tracking history," Rasmussen reports, "and is the closest the two parties have been on the generic ballot."

New Hurdle For Obama: Voters Are Growing Pessimistic About The Economy

Posted Dec 23, 2008 at 1:10 AM by Maurice Berger

In a new hurdle for the incoming Obama administration, voters are growing increasingly pessimistic about their personal finances. According to a new Gallup survey, About 40% of Americans on average are "currently worrying about money, sustaining a slight but significant increase in worry compared to readings before September of this year . . . Americans' self-reports that they worried about money began 2008 near 30% on average, and then rose to an average of about 35% through the end of the summer. Then, as was the case for other consumer economic measures Gallup tracks, financial worry begin to rise in mid- to late September, coincident with the highly publicized credit crisis. The average worry level peaked at about 45% in early October, and has fallen back slightly since, generally remaining above the 40% level. The notable exception was a drop in financial worry around the Thanksgiving holiday . . . The large sample sizes involved in this tracking -- about 3,500 interviews per seven-day rolling average -- underscore the conclusion that while the increase in worry is not large on an absolute basis, it is significant and meaningful." PollTrack notes that such negative sentiment can actually contribute to an economic downturn, functioning as a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy in which consumers--fearful of their personal economic future--begin to radically alter their spending habits.

43% of Americans Think Obama Transition Did Nothing Wrong In Blagojevich Scandal

Posted Dec 22, 2008 at 7:05 AM by Maurice Berger

 

A new CNN/Opinion Research survey indicates Americans are split on whether aides to President-elect Barack Obama did something inappropriate in their contacts with embattled Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich: 12% of those questioned say Obama aides did something illegal, with another 36% feeling Obama aides didn't act illegally but did do something unethical.43% say no Obama aides did anything seriously wrong."

Obama's Illinois Senate Seat Replacement: Voters Want Jesse L. Jackson, Jr.

Posted Dec 05, 2008 at 5:08 AM by Maurice Berger

Who will replace Barack Obama as Illinois' Juinior Senator? The task will be left to Rod Blagojevich, Illinois’ Democratic governor whose own approval numbers remain among the lowest of state chief executives in the country. According to a new survey of Illinois voters, "Rep. Jesse L. Jackson, Jr. is the clear favorite . . . . among the party’s top five candidates to succeed Barack Obama as the state’s junior U.S. senator." Rasmussen Reports hancaps the hypothetical race as follows: Jackson, a "Chicago congressman who has been openly campaigning for the job has the support of 36% of Illinois Democrats . . . Tammy Duckworth, director of Illinois’ Department of Veterans Affairs, is next with the backing of 29%, followed by state Attorney General Lisa Madigan with 17%. Another congressman mentioned for the post, Rep. Jan Schakowksy, has eight percent (8%) support, with Emil Jones, president of the Illinois Senate, at two percent (2%). Just seven percent (7%) of Democrats are not sure which candidate they prefer." Blagojevich has promised to appoint Obama’s successor during the Christmas holidays.

WRITING ON THE WALL: Final US Senate Race Chart Now Up

Posted Nov 04, 2008 at 2:19 AM by Maurice Berger

Check into Writing on the Wall for PollTrack's final US Senate Race Chart.