1 1 <p>Republican pollster Frank Luntz fires a warning shot to Democrats in his analysis of the president's declining popularity. While his overall opinion of--and some of his ideas about--the seriousness of the dilemma now facing Democrats may be colored by ideology, two of his points about looming red flags are backed up by the results of a number of non-partisan public opinion surveys:</p> <p><br />&bull; <em>According to Gallup, Obama has suffered the greatest fall in approval of any elected president since the company started ongoing tracking during the Eisenhower administration. Obama came into office with the approval of two out of every three voters (67 percent) but ended his first year with just half the electorate (50 percent) offering a positive evaluation of his performance. Only the unelected Gerald Ford fared worse in the court of public opinion. </em><br /><br /><br />&bull; <em>While the Republican brand has barely moved since its electoral disasters of 2006 and 2008 and remains unpopular, Democratic popularity has collapsed as well. Most surveys now have the GOP even or even slightly ahead in the generic congressional ballot, and Americans now see the Republicans to be as good if not better in handling the economy. </em></p> <p>What Luntz fails to point out, however, is that the Republican brand is suffering as well: A new <a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/direction-of-gop.html">Public Policy Polling poll</a> reports that only 19% of voters nationally are happy with the direction of the Republican Party, compared to 56% who are unhappy with it. Even more surprising--GOP voters are not particularly happy with the direction of their own party: just 35% support the direction of the party; 38% say they are unhappy.</p> 2010-01-21T14:02:20-05:00 1347 false true 2010-01-22T09:35:23-05:00 2010-01-22T09:35:23-05:00 1 1 <p><em>PollTrack </em>suggests taking a look at this informative <em>New York Times </em>round table on the upcoming midterm elections. While certain political signs point to possibly significant Democratic loses (presidential job approval below 50%, shrinking Democratic partisan identification, a GOP lead on the Congressional Generic ballot), it is still too early to tell. An improved economy--and an uptick in job creation--could well benefit the Democrats (ten months is a relatively long time in the politics of the Internet age). Or continued stagnation may well add seats to the GOP column. Will shrinking Democratic turnout--relative to last year's wave of enthusiasm for candidate Obama--ultimately hurt the party in power or will Democrats, still weary from 8-years of George W. Bush, turn out in sufficient numbers to keep things stable? <a href="http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/06/whats-the-outlook-for-democrats/">Click here for the complete <em>NYT</em> round table. </a></p> 2010-01-07T15:46:13-05:00 1294 false true 2010-01-08T10:20:11-05:00 2010-01-08T10:20:11-05:00 1 1 <p>The congressional generic ballot, which asks voters to indicate for which party do they intend to voter for the US House of Representatives next November, now shows the two parties virtually tied. <em>PollTrack</em>'s averaging of recent polls on the question shows a tiny <em><strong>+0.4%</strong></em> lead for the <em><strong>Democrats</strong></em>: DEM 44.8% to REP 44.4%.</p> 2009-12-06T10:38:15-05:00 1252 false true 2009-12-08T09:37:37-05:00 2009-12-08T09:37:37-05:00 1 1 <p>According to Rasmussen Reports, the Congressional Generic Ballot remains tied: "39% would vote for their district&rsquo;s Democratic congressional candidate while 39% would choose the Republican. Support for both parties dropped one point from last week. Support for Democratic candidates is just one point above its low point for the past year. Support for the GOP is just two points below its highest level found over the same time period. Men favor the GOP by a five-point margin, while women prefer Democrats by the same margin." In what may be a red flag for the Democrats, voters not affiliated with either party favor the GOP 33% to 23%.</p> 2009-06-17T12:41:22-04:00 967 false true 2009-06-19T09:33:58-04:00 2009-06-19T09:33:58-04:00