Posted Nov 27, 2013 at 2:49 PM by Maurice Berger
In a stunning reversal from just a month ago, Republicans now lead the generic congressional
ballot according to a just released CNN/ORC International survey. Last month, the Democrats led by +8%; now, the GOP leads, 49% to 47%.
Posted Oct 11, 2013 at 6:05 PM by Maurice Berger
MSNBC writes: "The Republican Party has been badly damaged in the ongoing government shutdown and debt limit standoff, with a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finding that a majority of Americans blame the GOP for the shutdown, and with the party’s popularity declining to its lowest level. By a 22-point margin (53 percent to 31 percent), the public blames the Republican Party more for the shutdown than President Barack Obama – a wider margin of blame for the GOP than the party received during the poll during the last shutdown in 1995-96. Just 24 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion about the GOP, and only 21 percent have a favorable view of the Tea Party, which are both at all-time lows in the history of poll."
Posted May 24, 2013 at 7:12 AM by Maurice Berger
While a year-and-a-half away, the 2014 election is not far from the mind of pollsters (and political parties). A new poll by Quinnipiac reports that American voters say they are more likely to
vote Democratic than Republican for Congress in 2014 -- 41% to 37%. If this holds true, and Democrats gain seats in congress, it would, according to Quinnipiac, "violate the historical model of the president's party
losing ground in the sixth year of a presidency."
Posted Feb 11, 2011 at 1:15 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released Public Policy Polling survey reports that the GOP honeymoon with the American voter has been VERY short-lived. Democrats now once again lead the generic congressional ballot, 45% to 41%, an 11% swing since the November elections.
Democrats also hold a seven point lead, 38% to 31%, among independent
Posted Sep 10, 2010 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger
A just released Quinnipiac poll reports that the Republican Party continues to lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot, 42% to 37% margin. The same poll reports that President Obama continues to receive a negative 44% to 47% approval
rating, statistically unchanged from his record-low two weeks ago.
Posted Sep 09, 2010 at 1:27 AM by Maurice Berger
A USA/Today Gallup poll reports that the Republican lead in the congressional generic ballot may have less to do with positive feelings towards the GOP and more with voters rejecting the Democrats. According to the survey, among voters supporting unnamed Republican candidates, "44% say it's more a
vote against the Democratic candidate . . . while 48% say it's more a vote
for the Republican candidate."
Posted Aug 31, 2010 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger
A just published Gallup tracking poll has alarming news for Democrats running in the mid-term election: the GOP now holds an unprecedented lead in the generic congressional ballot. The survey reports that Republicans lead by 10 points in the generic congressional ballot among registered voters, 51% to 41%. This is the biggest GOP lead so far this year and its largest
in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.
Posted Aug 24, 2010 at 2:18 AM by Maurice Berger
According to PollTrack's latest calculation, the GOP holds a significant lead over Democrats in the Generic Congressional Ballot. As of Sunday evening, that lead is a considerable +7.2%, 47.5 to 40.3%. These numbers represent one of the largest leads held by either party in recent years.
Posted Aug 18, 2010 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger
Rasmussen reports a big lead for the GOP in the generic congressional ballot: "Republican candidates have jumped out to a record-setting 12-point lead over
Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, August
15, 2010. This is the biggest lead the GOP has held in over a decade of
Rasmussen Reports surveying." And "the latest Gallup generic ballot test shows the Republicans leading the Democrats by the largest spread in the history of the generic ballot.
Republicans lead by seven points -- 50 percent to 43 percent. This also
appears to be the first time Republicans have ever hit 50 percent in
the history of the Gallup generic ballot."
Posted Aug 05, 2010 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger
The latest Cook Political Report forecast predicts a 32 to 42 seat net gain for Republicans in the House of
Representatives. In order to take over the House, the GOP needs to net 39 seats to reach a bare
majority of 218 seats. In the Senate, Cook's forcast bodes better for the Democrats, with a predicted a 5 to 7 seat net gain for Republicans, not enough to take control of the chamber.
Posted Aug 04, 2010 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger
The newest Gallup survey of national political sentiment adds fuel to the speculation that a an earlier survey by the organization indicating a Democratic lead in the generic congressional ballot--and outlier relative to most other polls--may indeed represent a statistical blip. According to Gallup, Republicans have taken back the lead and are now ahead by +5%, 48% to 43%.
Gallup writes: "While the five-percentage-point edge for Republicans is not
statistically significant, it represents a return to the prevailing 2010
pattern, seen since mid-March, whereby Republicans were tied or held a
slight advantage over Democrats in most Gallup Daily tracking weekly
averages. If sustained through Election Day, this competitive
positioning for the Republicans among registered voters would point to
major seat gains for that party in November given the usual Republican
advantage in turnout."
Posted Aug 03, 2010 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger
Are Democrats regaining ground in the 2010 mid-term election? One polling organization, Gallup, has reported for tor two straight weeks, that Democrats now maintain a lead in the generic congressional ballot. Does this suggest a trend. Veteran political analyst Charlie Cook suggests that it is too early to tell:
"One interpretation of recent results is that the momentum in this
critical midterm election has shifted and the Republican wave has
subsided. Another interpretation is that it's too soon to tell whether
much has changed at all." It is also inportant to add that Gallup's findings are not matched by some other polls: A new Fox News poll, for example,
reports a +11% for Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, 47% to 36%. Two weeks ago the Republicans had a +4% advantage.
Posted Jul 13, 2010 at 12:41 AM by Maurice Berger
Corps survey is the latest to show Republicans leading Democrats in congressional
races by six points, 48% to 42%. The poll--in line with most other gauges of party strength in the upcoming congressional elections--suggests a wide enough margin to be of real concern to Democrats.
Posted Jun 18, 2010 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger
With polls contradicting each other daily, it's hard to know who is really ahead in the congressional generic ballot. Today's survey, out from AP-GFK reports a healthy +7% point lead for the the Democrats, 46%-39%. The same poll reports that the Democrats they also lead
Republicans 47%-42% on "who Americans trust more to guide the economy." But there is also a caveat for Democrats: "There's plenty in the poll to encourage Republicans, and
nothing that contradicts many analysts' views that the GOP has a solid
shot of capturing majorities of one or both chambers of Congress. The
public's anti-Washington mood remains robust, with 55% saying
they want a new member of Congress — bad news for Democrats with more
incumbents to defend. A low 24% approve of how Congress is doing
its job, a hefty 72% still say the nation's economy is in poor
condition, and 77% consider huge federal budget deficits a top
Posted Jun 16, 2010 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger
It looks like yesterday's PPP survey showing the Democrats leading the congressional generic ballot may be an outlier. All other recent polls show a GOP advantage. The latest Gallup
Poll, for example, reports that Republicans now hold +5% lead in the
generic ballot, 49% to 44%. A new poll of the battleground congressional districts, conducted by NPR by
Democratic polling firm GQR and Republican polling firm Public Opinion
Strategies, "finds reason
for deep concern among Democrats. The poll . . . tested the 60 most competitive Democratic districts and
shows an increasingly difficult environment for candidates of the
"The results are a wake-up call for Democrats whose losses in the
House could well exceed 30 seats," GQR notes in its findings. In the Democratic districts, several findings were most disconcerting
for the party: just 34% said they would vote to re-elect their
representative, whom the questioner named; in a separate question, 56%
said they will not vote to re-elect their representative because new
people are needed to fix Washington; and when both the Democratic and
Republican candidates were named, 47% said they'd vote for the
Republican and 42% chose the Democrat. Also tested were the 10 most competitive Republican districts, where
53% say they'll vote for the GOP candidate and 37% for the Democrat."
Posted Jun 15, 2010 at 1:10 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Public
Policy Polling survey reports that Democrats are now leading in the generic
congressional ballot. Although the margin is small--43% to 41%--this survey marks the first time since December that PPP shows an advantage for the Democrats.
Posted Apr 23, 2010 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Public
Policy Polling survey reports that Republicans continue to lead Democrats in the
generic congressional ballot, 47% to 42%. The survey analysis finds that "92% of Republicans are committed to supporting their party
this fall while just 86% of Democrats are," a modest enthusiasm gap that could hurt Democrats come November.
Posted Apr 21, 2010 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger
In a new and complex report, one of the nation's most experienced analysts suggests that the Democrats may be in trouble in this falls mid-term elections. The Cook
Political Report now projects that come November, the Republicans are poised to gain 30 to
40 seats in the House of Representatives. The GOP needs 40 seats to
take control. "If the
trend over the past seven months continues," writes Cook, "the GOP will do even better."
Posted Apr 13, 2010 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger
Silver speculates that Republican advantage now registered by a number of surveys in the generic
congressional ballot could result in the Democrats loosing a significant number of House
seats this November: "Although analysts debate the precise magnitude of the difference, on
average the generic ballot has overestimated the Democrats' performance
in the popular vote by 3.4 points since 1992. If the pattern holds, that
means that a 2.3-point deficit in generic ballot polls would translate
to a 5.7 point deficit in the popular vote -- which works out to a loss
of 51 seats, according to our regression model." Still, as PollTrack notes, it's to early to tell if these numbers will hold up. Even Silver hedges his bet: "If Democrats were to lose 50, 60, 70 or even more House seats, it would
not totally shock me. Nor would it shock me if they merely lost 15, or
20. But their downside case could be very far down."
Posted Apr 09, 2010 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
Gallup Daily tracking for the week ending April 4 finds the two major
parties tied at 46% in the congressional voting preferences of
registered voters nationally. In the two weeks since Congress passed
health care reform on March 21, Democrats have tied or trailed the
Republicans, after having at least a slight advantage in the weeks
prior. Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Mar 18, 2010 at 12:56 AM by Maurice Berger
Two new polls suggest that if the November election were held today, the generic vote for congress would be evenly split: Public
Policy Polling survey finds a slim Republican advantage, 46% to 43%; the latest WSJ/NBC
News poll shows Democrats with a three point lead, 46% to 43%; Gallup reports a similar advantage, 47% to 44%. PollTrack's average shows the Democrats with a tiny +1% lead, 45.3% to 44.3%.
Posted Jan 22, 2010 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger
Republican pollster Frank Luntz fires a warning shot to Democrats in his analysis of the president's declining popularity. While his overall opinion of--and some of his ideas about--the seriousness of the dilemma now facing Democrats may be colored by ideology, two of his points about looming red flags are backed up by the results of a number of non-partisan public opinion surveys:
• According to Gallup, Obama has suffered the greatest fall in
approval of any elected president since the company started ongoing
tracking during the Eisenhower administration. Obama came into office
with the approval of two out of every three voters (67 percent) but
ended his first year with just half the electorate (50 percent)
offering a positive evaluation of his performance. Only the unelected
Gerald Ford fared worse in the court of public opinion.
the Republican brand has barely moved since its electoral disasters of
2006 and 2008 and remains unpopular, Democratic popularity has
collapsed as well. Most surveys now have the GOP even or even slightly
ahead in the generic congressional ballot, and Americans now see the
Republicans to be as good if not better in handling the economy.
What Luntz fails to point out, however, is that the Republican brand is suffering as well: A new Public Policy Polling poll reports that only 19% of voters nationally are happy with the direction
of the Republican Party, compared to 56% who are unhappy with it. Even more surprising--GOP voters are not particularly happy with the direction of their own party: just 35% support the direction of the party; 38% say
they are unhappy.
Posted Jan 08, 2010 at 2:20 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack suggests taking a look at this informative New York Times round table on the upcoming midterm elections. While certain political signs point to possibly significant Democratic loses (presidential job approval below 50%, shrinking Democratic partisan identification, a GOP lead on the Congressional Generic ballot), it is still too early to tell. An improved economy--and an uptick in job creation--could well benefit the Democrats (ten months is a relatively long time in the politics of the Internet age). Or continued stagnation may well add seats to the GOP column. Will shrinking Democratic turnout--relative to last year's wave of enthusiasm for candidate Obama--ultimately hurt the party in power or will Democrats, still weary from 8-years of George W. Bush, turn out in sufficient numbers to keep things stable? Click here for the complete NYT round table.
Posted Dec 08, 2009 at 1:37 AM by Maurice Berger
The congressional generic ballot, which asks voters to indicate for which party do they intend to voter for the US House of Representatives next November, now shows the two parties virtually tied. PollTrack's averaging of recent polls on the question shows a tiny +0.4% lead for the Democrats: DEM 44.8% to REP 44.4%.
Posted Jun 19, 2009 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Rasmussen Reports, the Congressional Generic Ballot remains tied: "39% would vote for their district’s Democratic congressional candidate while 39%
would choose the Republican. Support for both parties dropped one point from last week. Support for Democratic candidates is just one point
above its low point for the past year. Support for the GOP
is just two points below its highest level found over the same time period. Men favor the GOP by a five-point margin, while women prefer
Democrats by the same margin." In what may be a red flag for the Democrats, voters not affiliated with either party favor the GOP 33% to