Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

President Not Rewarded For An Improving Economy

Posted Dec 12, 2013 at 12:23 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite signs that aspects of the economy may be improving, a New York Times poll reports that "37% of those surveyed approve of Obama's handling of the economy; 58% disapprove. These numbers are indistinguishable from the results of a CBS News poll taken last month, although better-than-expected unemployment numbers and other positive economic data were released last week."

Majority Not Concerned About Sequestration Cuts

Posted May 07, 2013 at 8:10 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "a majority of Americans still don't know enough to say whether the federal budget sequestration cuts are a good thing or a bad thing for the country -- as has generally been the case since they went into effect. But of those who do who have an opinion, more continue to say sequestration is a bad thing, rather than a good thing." Here is Gallup's chart. 

Fox News Survey: Obama And Romney In Dead Heat

Posted Apr 30, 2012 at 8:09 AM by Maurice Berger

The latest survey from Fox News reports that if the presidential election were held now, the race would be tied, with President Obama and Mitt Romney each garnering 46%. Interesting, and perhaps one reason for the closeness of the race as reported by the Fox poll: a majority of Americans -- 61% for President Obama and 58% for Mitt Romney -- believe that neither candidate has a plan to fix the economy.

For First Time, Majority Blame Obama For Bad Economy

Posted Oct 24, 2011 at 10:54 PM by Maurice Berger

A poll USA Today/Gallup indicates that a majority of Americans--for the first time--blame President Obama for the nation's economic problems. 53% believe that Obama deserves "a great deal" or a "moderate amount" of the blame for the economic problems that the country currently faces. Nevertheless, an even larger number -- 69% -- believe that former President George Bush deserves a "great deal" or a "moderate amount" of blame for the economy.

Consumer Confidence Index: Electoral Doom For The President?

Posted Oct 17, 2011 at 1:28 AM by Maurice Berger

In yet another indicator of an icreasingly difficult reelection race for the president in 2012, Mark McKinnon observes that "the average consumer confidence index when a president running for reelection wins is 95. When they lose, it's 76. Today the number is 55." Still, the present-day economic situation is highly unusual in that most Americans continue to blame the bad economy on forces outside of Obama's control.

A just released survey by CBS News poll reports that 69% of Americans believe President Obama has not made real progress in fixing the economy; 25% say he has made real progress. Yet, on the question of who to blame for the shaky economy, most--22%--cited the Bush administration, followed by Wall Street at 16%, Congress at 15% and then the Obama administration at 12%. One in 10 said "all of the above. Will this perception help President Obama in his quest for reelection. PollTrack thinks it's too early to tell. 

Americans Remain Pessimistic Over Economy

Posted Sep 28, 2011 at 1:49 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Gallup reports that Americans remain largely pessimistic about the economy: "Three in four Americans assess the U.S. economy as no better than a year ago, with 35% saying it is about the same and 42% saying it is worse. Looking ahead to a year from now, Americans remain largely pessimistic, with 61% expecting economic conditions to be similar to now, or worse." Here is Gallup's chart:

Do you think the U.S. economy is fully recovered, better than it was a year ago but not fully recovered, about the same as a year ago, or worse than it was a year ago? (Thinking about one year from now, do you think the U.S. economy will be ... ?) September 2011 results

Americans See Economy As Improving

Posted Jan 19, 2011 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Quinnipiac poll reports that Americans--by a 54% to 43% margin--believe that the economy is improving. By a margin of 46% to 28%, Americans also believe that President Obama's policies are helping rather than hurting the economy.

Americans More Optimistic About Economy

Posted Jan 05, 2011 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, "Twice as many Americans think the U.S. economy will be better rather than worse in 2011.Americans living in the East and Midwest are a little more optimistic about the economic outlook for 2011 than those living in the South and West. Americans making $75,000 or more in annual income are slightly more optimistic than other Americans, and Democrats are considerably more optimistic than their independent and Republican counterparts."

Here is Gallup's chart:

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U.S. Economic Confidence Down

Posted Aug 25, 2010 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "after improving slightly earlier this month, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index declined over the past two weeks to its current -33, matching the average for all of July. The July confidence numbers are the lowest of the year so far; thus, even with the slight uptick in early August, confidence remains below the levels seen during much of 2010 and below its depressed levels of a year ago. 48% of Americans rated current economic conditions as 'poor' during the week ending Aug. 22 -- approaching the highest levels of the year. This is marginally worse than the early August reading, is in line with the full July average of 47%, and is marginally worse than at this time in 2009."