A new poll by Mitchell Research in Michigan reports that Mitt Romney holds a comfortable lead in the GOP primary race with 31%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 16%, Rick Santorum at 15% and Ron Paul at 15%. Since the poll was conducted before Romney lost contests in three states earlier this week, PollTrack will be following this race closely in the next few days.

A new poll by DailyKos/Public Policy Polling suggests a potential problem for the GOP in its quest to unseat President Obama: The poll finds that 58% of Democrats were "very excited" about voting in this year's election, as compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months ago, enthusiasm tilted towards Republicans, 54% to 48%.
The Daily Kos observes: "Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for the GOP."

With a new survey by WMUR Granite State Poll reporting that  President Obama's standing in New Hampshire has improved considerably over the past six months--Obama's approval rating now stands at 51% and he beats Mitt Romney in a possible general election match up, 50% to 40%--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Presidential Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Democratic.

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Colorado finds Mitt Romney primed for another big win in today's caucuses. The poll reports that Romney is ahead of the pack with 40%, followed by Rick Santorum at 26%, Newt Gingrich at 18% and Ron Paul at 12%.

A just released survey by Public Policy Polling in Minnesota reports a very close race heading into Tuesday's caucuses. Rick Santorum bests Mitt Romney, by a mere +2%, 29% to 27%, with Newt Gingrich at 22% and Ron Paul at 19%.

A just released survey by Public Policy Polling in Nevada reports that Mitt Romney is headed for a big victory in tomorrow's caucuses. Romney leads Newt Gingrich, 50% to 25%, with Ron Paul at 15% and Rick Santorum at 8%. PPP observes that "the bad news for Gingrich isn't just that's headed for a distant second place finish. Nevada Republicans actively dislike him, with only 41% holding a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative one. That's an indication that GOP voters might be starting to sour on him again, sending his numbers back to pre-South Carolina levels."Nevertheless, Nevada does not have a direct primary, so polling may not accurately reflect the make up of tomorrow's participants. Still, PollTrack these numbers--consistent with other recent polls in the state--suggest a Romney win.

With a new Public Policy Polling survey reporting that President Obama has broken even with Ohio voters-- 48% now approve of him with an equal 48% disapproving--PollTrack now rates the state "Leaning Democrat" on Today's Map. This call is influenced by another finding in the poll: Just 28% of Ohioans have a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney to 56% with a negative one. According to the survey, Obama leads Romney in a possible general election match up by seven points, 49% to 42%.

A new USAToday/Gallup survey of the dozen states likely to determine the outcome of November's election--Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin--concludes that Mitt Romney is the "GOP contender with the best chance of denying Obama a second term." The poll reports that "in a head-to-head race, Romney leads Obama by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 48%-47% . . . But Obama leads Gingrich, 54%-40%. The president's standing against him has risen nine points since early December; Gingrich has fallen by eight. Gingrich fares less well than Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who trails Obama by seven points, 50%-43%, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who also trails by seven points, 51%-44%."

PollTrack's analysis of half-dozen polls released over the past few days in the GOP presidential primary in Florida suggest a likely win for Mitt Romney. Romney's aggregate lead over his closes competitor, Newt Gingrich, as of Sunday evening is +11.3%--a considerable advantage, with Romney leading in all six polls (with margins ranging from +8% to +16%.

According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's third-year approval average--at 44%--is the second lowest for a president in the past 50-years. Looking just at other elected presidents' third-year averages, only Jimmy Carter's 37% average in 1979-1980 is lower than Obama's. Ronald Reagan's third-year average of 45% was similar to Obama's. Crucial to reading this analysis, PollTrack believes, is the perception of the electorate moving into the fourth year: if the economic and political climate appear to be improving, as they were with Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, the voters often reelect a president with relatively low approval ratings in the third year. So PollTrack will keep a close eye on the economic atomosphere as we move into election 2012. Here is Gallup's chart:

A survey by CNN-Time in Florida reports a slight lead for Mitt Romney, who now comes in at 36%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 34%, Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 9%. According to the poll, "Romney leads Gingrich among female and white voters, voters over 50, and those with a college degree... Gingrich holds leads among men, Tea Party voters, self-identified conservatives -- among whom he boasts a 10-point advantage -- and born-again Christians. His fans also appear to be more committed than Romney's."

A just released survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Florida reports that Newt Gingrich now leads Mitt Romney by five points in the GOP presidential race, 38% to 33%, followed by Rick Santorum at 13% and Ron Paul at 10%. Significantly, Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points.

A new poll out from Rasmussen in Florida shows Newt Gingrich now ahead in the GOP presidential race with 41%, followed by Mitt Romney at 32%, Rick Santorum at 11% and Ron Paul at 8%.

After a month with a clear advantage in South Carolina, four new polls suggest that Mitt Romney may now be the underdog in the state's upcoming GOP presidential primary.

A survey by American Research Group reports that Newt Gingrich now leads, with 33% closely followed by Mitt Romney 32%, Ron Paul 19%, Rick Santorum 9%, Rick Perry 4%.

InsiderAdvantage shows Gingrich leading with 32%, followed by Romney at 29%, Paul at 15%, Santorum at 11%, and Rick Perry far behind at 3%.

We Ask America reports that Gingrich leads the GOP field with 32%, followed by Mitt Romney at 28%, Ron Paul at 13%, Rick Santorum at 9%, Rick Perry at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

And a survey by Public Policy Polling survey show Gingrich with 35%, Romney with 29%, and Paul and Santorum each tied for third at 15%.

PollTrack notes that Perry's departure from the race could also help Gingrich, removing as it does one less conservative alternative to Romney.

Good news for President Obama: according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling, the President leads Mitt Romney in a general election match, at 49% to 44% nationally. This is Obama's best showing in months, an increase in support due, in part, to the steep decline of Romney's favorable rating, with only 35% rating him favorably while 53% have a negative opinion of him.

A new survey by Sunshine State News in Florida reports that Mitt Romney leads by a very wide margin in the upcoming primary for the GOP presidential nomination. According to the poll, Romney leads with 46%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Rick Santorum at 12% and Ron Paul at 9%. Similarly,. A new Public Policy Polling survey in the state shows Romney in the lead at 41%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 26%, Rick Santorum at 11%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1% rounding out the field.

Three new polls show Mitt Romney with a significant lead in next Saturday's South Carolina GOP presidential primary:

InsiderAdvantage: Romney is at 32%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 21%, Ron Paul at 14%, Rick Santorum at 13%, Jon Huntsman at 6% and Rick Perry at 5%.

Reuters/Ipsos Romney leads with 37%, followed by Ron Paul at Rick Santorum at 16% and Newt Gingrich dropping back to 16%.

Frontier Strategy: Romney is at with 32%, followed by Gingrich at 23%, Santorum at 14%, Paul at 10%, Perry at 6% and Huntsman at 4%.

Two new polls show Mitt Romney pull way from the pack in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. A survey from Fox News reports that Romney leads with 40%, followed by Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 14%, Ron Paul at 13%, Rick Perry at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 5%. Gallup daily tracking similarly reports that Romney is at 37%, Santorum at 14%, Gingrich at 13%, Paul at 12%, Perry at 5% and Hunstman at 3%.

Even if the South Carolina proves to be close--or even if current frontrunner Mitt Romney loses--a new Rasmussen survey in Florida suggests that Florida may contribute to his overall standing as GOP nomination leader. According to the poll, Romney leads with 41%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 19%, Rick Santorum at 15%, Ron Paul at 9% and Jon Hunstman at 5%.

As of Tuesday--and therefore before the results of the New Hampshire primary--Mitt Romney continues to hold a very modest lead in South Carolina, according to two polls: A survey by We Ask America reports that Mitt Romney leads the GOP presidential field with 26%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 21%, Rick Santorum at 13%, Ron Paul at 8%, Rick Perry at 5% and John Hunstman at 4%. Another 22% are still undecided. A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Romney at 27%, Gingrich at 23%, Santorum at 18%, Ron Paul at 8%, Rick Perry at 7% and Jon Huntsman at 4%.

A survey by Quinnipiac in Florida reports that Mitt Romney is now leading the GOP presidential race with 36%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 24%, Rick Santorum at 16%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. With more than half of all voters saying they could still change their mind, the race may still be fluid.

Polling in recent days has shown surprising strength for Mitt Romney in the relative conservative state of South Carolina. A new Public Policy Polling survey in the state reports that Mitt Romney holds a modest lead, with 30%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 23%, Rick Santorum at 19%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1%.

With a slew of new polls showing Romney ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack wonders by how much and who will be his closest challenger. A new poll from Public Policy Polling reports that Mitt Romney has a substantial lead in the Republican presidential race with 35%, followed by Ron Paul at 18%, Jon Huntsman at 16%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Rick Santorum at 11%, Buddy Roemer at 3% and Rick Perry at 1%. A new survey by WMUR/UNH reports an even great for Romney, with 41%, followed by Paul at 17%, Huntsman at 11%, Santorum at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, Rick Perry at 1% and Buddy Roemer at 1%. But a Suffolk University tracking poll, released over the weekend, shows Mitt Romney's support dipping for the fourth day in a row. By Sunday, for example, Romney dropped another 4 points overnight to 35%, followed by Ron Paul at 20%, Jon Hunstman at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8% and Rick Perry at 1%. Another 15% remain undecided.

With some polls showing Huntsman gaining momentum (but Santorum loosing steam), the race could end with a closer result than a simple Romney walk. New Hampshire is known for its surprises: Hillary Clinton won the primary in 2008, although Barack Obama came into election day with a lead in virtually every poll. While PollTrack still believes Romney--thus moving him considerably closer to the nomination--will win the New Hampshire Primary, the depth and intensity of his win remains uncertain.

Another poll in New Hampshire, this one by Suffolk University, reports that Mitt Romney holds a huge lead, now at 41%, in the GOP presidential primary, followed by Ron Paul at 18%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Jon Huntsman at 7% and Rick Perry at 1%.

A number of polls in recent days report a commanding lead for Mitt Romney in the New Hampshire. A new poll by Suffolk tracking, for example, shows Romney leading with 43%, followed by Ron Paul at 17%, Jon Huntsman at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 8%. This poll is consistent with several others released over the past week. Given the extreme closeness of Romney's victory in Iowa yesterday, PollTrack will be watching New Hampshire very closely over the next six days for signs of weakening in Romney's position.

A survey in Iowa from Public Policy Polling survey, conducted Saturday and Sunday, reports a virtual three-way tie in advance of the Iowa caucuses. In the poll, Ron Paul leads with 20 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 19 percent and Rick Santorum at 18 percent. An InsiderAdvantage poll in Iowa shows Romney with an insignificant lead; he's at 23%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 18%, Newt Gingrich at 16%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. And a survey by American Research Group shows a slightly larger lead for Romney, with 22%, followed by Paul at 17%, Santorum at 16% and Gingrich at 15%.

A survey from the highly respect--and often very accurate--Des Moines Register reports that Mitt Romney now leads with 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 22%, Rick Santorum at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7%. The bog news may well be Santorum's surprisingly strong showing: "If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21%, pushing Paul to third, at 18%. Romney remains the same, at 24%."

A series of new polls suggests that the race to win the GOP Iowa Caucus may indeed be very close. A survey by InsiderAdvantage reports that the race is deadlocked, with Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul tied at 17% support each. Rick Santorum, whose numbers in Iowa have been rising in recent days, comes in at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 12%, Rick Perry at 11% and Jon Huntsman at 3%. Two other polls paint a similar picture of a very close race: American Research Group poll shows Romney leading with 22%, followed by Gingrich at 17%, Paul at 16% and Santorum at 11%; Rasmussen reports that Romney edgies Paul, 23% to 22%, with Santorum at 16% and Gingrich and Perry at 13% each.

A new survey by Gallup, reports that "Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama continue to be named by Americans as the Most Admired Woman and Most Admired Man living today in any part of the world. Clinton has been the Most Admired Woman each of the last 10 years, and Obama has been the Most Admired Man four years in a row. Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama, Sarah Palin, and Condoleezza Rice round out the top five Most Admired women, while the top five Most Admired men also include George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Billy Graham, and Warren Buffett." Here is Gallup's chart: 

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Ron Paul maintains a modest lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 24% to 20%, with Newt Gingrich in third place at 13%. Michele Bachmann comes in at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

According to the latest tracking poll from Gallup Newt Gingrich continues to hold a slight lead nationally among Republican voters with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Santorum at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 1%. Factoring in other polls, PollTrack now believes that Gingrich's advantage nationally will not hold through the Iowa caucus on 8 January. Stay tuned.

A poll released by American Research Group in Iowa reports a crowded field at top, with three candidates virtually tied for the lead: Ron Paul leads the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 20% and Newt Gingrich at 19%. As for the rest, they're all in the singles digits, with Rick Perry coming in at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 6% and Rick Santorum at 4%.

With the implosion of yet another GOP candidate (Newt Gingrich) and the ascendance of Mitt Romney to the top of the pack in Iowa, the question now on the table is whether Romney will win the nomination and wrap it up early. With several polls reporting a significant lead for Romney in New Hampshire--and now leading in Iowa (A Rasmussen survey in Iowa shows Romney leading Ron Paul, 25% to 20%)--PollTrack thinks that this could be a possibility, though Gingrich continues to lead in other early (and more conservative) voting states, such as South Carolina and (marginally) Florida. Stay tuned.

(The Rasmussen Poll also shows Newt Gingrich at 17%, Rick Perry at 10%, Rick Santorum at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 4%.)

With Newt Gingrich the newest GOP contender to implode in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, the race for the Iowa caucus is now too close to call. A poll from We Ask America reports a very competitive race the Iowa. Ron Paul leads with 19%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Gingrich at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 11%, Rick Santorum at 9% and Jon Huntsman at 4%. Another poll, this one from Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG shows a very close race for the top two contenders--Paul with 28%, followed by Gingrich at 25%--with Romney further behind at 18%, Rick Perry at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 7% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

In case you're wonderful about other GOP primary states, here a breakdown of the standing of the GOP field in several of the larger states. In CA, PA, and VA, at least, Gingrich appears to be in the lead. Given the erosion of Gingrich's support in most recent polling, however, PollTrack suggests that these results should be view with a good degree of skepticism. In any case, Newt Gingrich leads by considerable margins in the key states:

CALIFORNIA (Public Policy Institute): Gingrich 33%, Romney 25%, Paul 9%, Bachmann 7%, Perry 4%, Santorum 4% and Huntsman 2%.

PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Polling and Research):  Gingrich 8%, Bachmann 6%, and Perry 2%.

VIRGINIA (Public Policy Polling survey): Gingrich 41%, Romney 15%, Perry 8%, Bachmann 8%, Santorum 6%, Paul 6% and Huntsman 3%.

While a pronounced surge for Newt Gingrich in the contest for the 2012 GOP nomination has been evident in recent weeks, the latest polling, plus the internals of some upcoming surveys, suggests that Gingrich may have some tough sailing ahead. Gallup daily tracking, for example, indicates a sharp decline in Gingrich's support. Gingrich now leads Mitt Romney by only +4%--28% to 24%, followed by Ron Paul at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Rick Perry at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. PollTrack has learned that several national surveys--as well as statewide polls--will report similar, relatively rapid, declines in Gingrich's standing in the GOP field. Stay tuned.

As his opponents continue to barrage Newt Gingrich with negative soundbites, can the ex-congressman maintain his momentum. A poll released last week in Iowa, by Rasmussen suggests that the tide may be turning once again the the quest for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. The poll now reports that Mitt Romney has recaptured back the lead with 23%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 20%, Ron Paul at 18%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 5%. Given the strong, religious-conservative bent of the Iowa Republican caucus-goers, this trend, if sustained, could be really big news.

Two polls just out. Two different readings of the relatively early (February 28) GOP presidential primary race in Michigan. A survey from MIRS reports that Romney leads with a double-digit lead in the state where he was raised, 48% to 33%. (Michele Bachmann comes in at 11% and Rick Perry at 7%). Another poll from Strategic National shows Newt Gingrich edging Mitt Romney in Michigan, where Romney spent his childhood, 31% to 29%. Stay tuned.

According to Politico, "A week-long blitz of negative ads from Ron Paul and "Restore Our Future," the pro-Mitt Romney super PAC, have taken a toll on Newt Gingrich's standing in Iowa, internal numbers from the Rick Perry and Romney camps show, according to multiple sources. Sources didn't provide specific numbers on how far he's slipped, but it's perceptible in both camps' numbers, the sources said. Perry has been inching up, the sources said - in part thanks to his faith-based push but largely because of his controversial anti-gay rights ad, and the big question is whether he draws at all from Romney and pushes him down out of the top three finishers in the state. The person who is holding strong, according to the internal numbers, is Paul, who has a true shot of winning the caucuses, according to several Iowa Republican insiders surveying ground games and energy."

Given the volatility of the GOP race thus far, PollTrack believes that these internal numbers could well spell a decline of support for Gingrich as earlier idealization is giving way to the political reality of frontrunner now being bombarded with negative advertisements and soundbites, many generated by his opponents. Stay tuned.

Two new polls by NBC News-Marist report that Newt Gingrich has considerable leads over Mitt Romney in South Carolina and Florida.
In South Carolina, Gingrich leads Romney by 42% to 23% (no other GOP candidate rises above single digits). In Florida, Gingrich leads Romney by 44% to 29%.

Another survey, this one from Fox News reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Gingrich leads with 36%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick Santorum at 4%, and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

PollTrack has made changes to both the "Today" and "Election Day" presidential maps that reflect somewhat improving numbers for President Obama in several key battleground states--numbers helped by the muddled and uncertain GOP field. In "Today's Map," the president has pulled even with the GOP in terms of relative electoral strength across the 50 states and DC. Similarly, "Election Day's Map" shows the president in a near tie with a generic GOP candidate, with more than 80-electoral votes projected to be too-close-too-call on Election Day 2012.

A survey released by Pew Research reports that more Americans say their impression of the GOP field is worsening than improving: 31% of respondents say that their impression of the GOP field is getting worse as they learn more about the candidates, while 14% says it's getting better. Another 50% say their impression remains the same.

Another poll in Iowa, this one by New York Times-CBS News reports that Newt Gingrich has pull into a significant lead over GOP rivals with 31%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at 16%, Rick Perry at 11% and the rest of the field in single digits.

A poll by Pew Research reports that the Tea Party, since the 2010 midterm elections, "has not only lost support nationwide, but also in the congressional districts represented by members of the House Tea Party Caucus." The survey concludes: "More Americans say they disagree (27%) than agree (20%) with the Tea Party movement. A year ago, in the wake of the sweeping GOP gains in the midterm elections, the balance of opinion was just the opposite: 27% agreed and 22% disagreed with the Tea Party." Although this decline may have an effect on the general election next fall, PollTrack believes that Tea Party influence will still effect the GOP primaries, where a smaller number of voters overall intensify the power of the waning, but still active party.

A survey by Poll Position reports that Newt Gingrich's national lead has widened. He tops the GOP presidential field with 37%, followed by Mitt Romney at 23%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Perry at 3%, Jon Huntsman at 2% and Rick Santorum at 2%. As PollTrack predicted last week, Gingrich appears to be benefiting from the defection of conservative candidates, such as Herman Cain. Stay tuned.

The impressive Des Moines Register Iowa Poll--they predicted Barack Obama's surge down to the percentage point in the Democratic caucus back in 2008--has some good news for Newt Gingrich: according to the survey, he has "carved out a clear lead" in the GOP presidential race with 25%, followed by Ron Paul at 18% and Mitt Romney at 16%. Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain come in at 8%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 2%. Significantly, as pollster J. Ann Seltzer notes, "the results show Gingrich's ascendancy has the potential to grow . . . More respondents choose Gingrich as their second choice than any other candidate. Together, 43% of likely caucusgoers pick him as first or second."

Similarly, a survey by NBC News/Marist in Iowa finds reports that Gingrich is now in the lead at with 26%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Ron Paul at 17%, Herman Cain at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's overall decline in Gallup's daily presidential job approval index has now surpassed that of Jimmy Carter. The president's aggregate approval numbers for November 2011--a year out from the culmination of his reelection effort--represent the worst job approval rating of any president at this stage of his term in modern political history. Significantly, however, a series of recent analyses of approval ratings relative to reelection suggest that presidential numbers at this point are not always predictive of outcome. Such variables as an approving economy, the electability of the challenger, and the increasingly swift turn over of news cycles in a world a new media can all contribute to the eventual outcome of a presidential cycle. So PollTrack will be watching the next few months very closely.

A new poll in Florida (with results similar to two others released over the past few days) confirms Gingrich's ascendance in the national contest for the GOP presidential nomination. The survey by Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential field with 47%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Herman Cain at 15%, Ron Paul at 5%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, Rick Perry at 2%, and Rick Santorum at 1%. Significantly, in light of PollTrack's Wednesday analysis of the status of the GOP campaign, the poll reports that the "biggest reason for Newt Gingrich's rise is that he's picked up the voters of Herman Cain and Rick Perry as their campaigns have fallen apart." PPP continues: "But these numbers make it pretty clear he's doing more than that--some of Mitt Romney's '25%' is starting to fall off and move toward Newt as well."

Despite polls showing Mitt Romney way ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack's analysis of the early voting states suggests a less clear path to victory for Romney. As one pollster notes in New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): "Just 16% of . . . likely primary voters say they know who they are voting for. So, while Romney might like his commanding lead right now, there is no telling where 84% of voters will go in the six remaining weeks before the primary." Indeed, the former Massachusetts governor now trails Newt Gingrich in most of the early voting states (or, as in Florida, is locked in a virtual tie with Gingrich). Romney's inability to seal the deal with Republican voters is telling.

Too moderate for the far right wing of the party--especially for Tea Party supporters--and too opportunistic in the eyes of even more moderate Republican voters, Romney appears to be unable to win the trust of a majority of GOP voters (or even a clear plurality). While it is now likely that the GOP primary season will drag on well into the early summer of 2012, it is PollTrack's opinion that Romney is no longer the clear frontrunner. Indeed, with major support now breaking Gingrich's way--and nearly all national surveys of GOP voters showing him in the lead--Gingrich may be breaking away from the pack. And as under-performing ultra-conservative candidates such as Cain, Bachmann, and Santorum begin dropping out of the race, it is far more likely that their votes will go to Gingrich and not Romney. Stay tuned.

Another poll, this one from Majority Opinion Research reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead over Mitt Romney, 32% to 23%. In the poll, Herman Cain comes in at 14%, Ron Paul at 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Michele Bachmann 4%, Jon Huntsman 3%, "someone else" at 4%, and no opinion at 11%.

A survey by WMUR/UNH in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential race by a large margin: 42%. His closest rival, Newt Gingrich is at 15%, while Ron Paul comes in at 12% and Jon Huntsman at 8%.

A poll by McClatchy-Marist reports that Newt Gingrich is the strongest Republican presidential candidate when matched head to head against President Obama. Obama leads Gingrich by two points, 47% to 45%; he bests Mitt Romney by 4 points, 49% to 44%; and Ron Paul by 8 points, 49% to 41%.

A new poll by Suffolk University/7NEWS in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney is way ahead of the GOP field with 41%, followed by Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 14%. In the only state where Jon Huntsman shows any strength, the former Utah governor comes in at 9%; Herman receives 8%, Rick Santorum 3%, Rick Perry 2%, and Michele Bachmann 1%.

Another poll, this one by Reuters/Ipsos, reports that Newt Gingrich now leads the Republican presidential field nationally with 24%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Herman Cain at 12% and Rick Perry at 10%.

A poll by Magellan Strategies in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney now barely leads Newt Gingrich among GOP presidential primary voters, 29% to 27%. In the survey, Ron Paul comes in at 16%, Herman Cain at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Perry at 2% and Rick Santorum at 1%. In Iowa, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead among likely GOP caucus-goers with 32%, followed by former Mitt Romney at 19%, Herman Cain at 13%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 6% and Michele Bachmann at 6%.

Two polls now show Newt Gingrich leading the GOP pack nationally. An Economist/YouGov reports that Gingrich leading is ahead nationally with 23%, followed closely by Herman Cain at 21% and Mitt Romney at 19%. Ron Paul comes in at 7%, Rick Perry at 6%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, Rick Santorum at 2% and Gary Johnson at 1%. A Fox News pollalso shows Gingrich in the lead, with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22% and Herman Cain at 15%. Ron Paul come in at 8%, Rick Perry at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Rick Santorum at 2%.

A survey by Bloomberg in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a huge lead over his GOP presidential rivals with 40%, followed by Ron Paul at 17% and Newt Gingrich at 10%. All the other candidates are below 10%.

Despite Allegations of sexual misconduct, Herman Cain maintains his lead in two early Republican nomination contests. According to two new surveys by Insider Advantage, Cain leads in Iowa with 23%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Newt Gingrich at 15%, Ron Paul at 12%, Rick Perry at 9% and Michele Bachmann at 5%. In another key state, South Carolina, Cain leads with 26%, followed by Gingrich at 19%, Romney at 16%, Perry at 6%, Bachmann at 5%, Ron Paul at 3% and Rick Santorum at 1%.

According to a series of surveys by GS Strategy, Mitt Romney and Herman Cain maintain leads in early GOP voting states. In Iowa, Cain leads Romney, 25% to 22%; the other candidates are at single digits. In New Hampshire, Romney maintains a huge lead, with 43% to Cain's 18%. In South Carolina, Cain just edges Romney in a statistical tie, 28% to 27%.

According to a new survey by Economist/YouGov, Mitt Romney has retaken his position atop the GOP presidential field with 24%, followed by Herman Cain at 21% and Newt Gingrich at 16%. Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Rick Perry are all tied for forth at 7%, in front of Jon Huntsman at 5% and Rick Santorum at 2%.

A survey by Gallup reports that President Obama's relative standing against a generic Republican candidate has improved considerably since the early fall. He now leads 43% to 42%. In Gallup's September and October polls, Obama trailed 38% to 46%. Gallup writes: "The evenness of independents' preferences marks a significant change from September and October, when independents favored the Republican candidate by a significant margin. The current pattern more closely resembles where independents were earlier this year, when Obama and the Republican were evenly matched... The changes in this survey matchup between Obama and a generic Republican candidate no doubt foreshadow the potential political volatility to come over the next 12 months."

In what bodes as a potential problem for Democrats overall in next year's federal election, a new survey by Gallup reports that Republican voters are more likely to express enthusiasm about voting in next year's presidential election. On the national level, 56% of registered GOP voters and 48% of Democratic voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. In 12 key swing states, the Republican advantage is even greater: 59% to 48%.

A new poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that Herman Cain and Mitt Romney tied for the lead nationally among Republican voters at 21% each. Newt Gingrich is in third place at 12%, just ahead of Rick Perry at 11%. The other candidates fail to rise above single digits.

A poll by Reuters/Ipsos reports that President Obama's approval rating is up slightly, now at 49%, with disapproval at 50%. PollTrack's aggregate numbers alas show slight improvement: with his approval rating at 46% (up from 44% last month) and a disapproval number at 50.8%.

For those of you, like PollTrack, interesting in following voter sentiment on the ground, here is the voting schedule of the first five states in the Republican nominating process:

January 3: Iowa

January 10: New Hampshire

January 21: South Carolina

January 31: Florida

February 4: Nevada

The prestigious (and often remarkably accurate) Des Moines Register Iowa poll suggests that the race to win the Iowa Caucus may be very close. The survey reports that Herman Cain and Mitt are virtually tied at this poinr in the race: Cain edges Romney, 23% to 22%, with Ron Paul at 12%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Rick Perry at 7%, Rick Santorum at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

While several recent polls have showed Mitt Romney leading in some of the early 2012 caucus and primary states, a nw survey by the Economist/YouGov reports that Herman Cain now leads the Republican presidential field nationally with 28%, followed by Romney at 24%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates are below 5%. The poll also suggests that Romney mat be the stronger challenger against the president next fall: in general election match ups, Obama leads Romney, 48% to 45%, bests Cain, 48% to 40%, and overwhelms Perry 48% to 38%.

A poll by Magellan Strategies in Nevada reports that Mitt Romney holds a significant lead over Herman Cain, 38% to 26%, in the GOP nomination context, with Newt Gingrich in third at 16%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rick Perry at 5%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Santorum at 1% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

A poll USA Today/Gallup indicates that a majority of Americans--for the first time--blame President Obama for the nation's economic problems. 53% believe that Obama deserves "a great deal" or a "moderate amount" of the blame for the economic problems that the country currently faces. Nevertheless, an even larger number -- 69% -- believe that former President George Bush deserves a "great deal" or a "moderate amount" of blame for the economy.

A survey by AP-GfK reports that 50% of Americans believe that President Obama does not deserve re-election. Still, Obama runs about even or slightly ahead of all three men in hypothetical matchups with possible GOP nominees, Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, or Rick Perry. 

A survey by AP-GfK reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the Republican presidential field nationally with 30%, followed by Herman Cain at 26%, Rick Perry at 13%, Ron Paul at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 4%, Jon Huntsman at 2% and Rick Santorum at 2%.

In another important early voting state, Nevada, Mitt Romney now leads the GOP field with 31%, followed by Herman Cain at 26% and Rick Perry at 12%. According to the survey by Project New West, Newt Gingrich comes in at 7%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 4%, Rick Santorum at 2% and Jon Huntsman at 1%.

A survey by InsiderAdvantage/Newsmax in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a solid lead over Herman Cain in the GOP presidential race, 39% to 24%; Ron Paul come in third at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Newt Gingrich at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5% and Rick Perry at 2%.

A survey by InsiderAdvantage/Newsmax in Iowa reports that Herman Cain holds a solid lead over Mitt Romney, 26%, followed to 18%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Ron Paul at 10% and Rick Perry at 6%.

In yet another indicator of an icreasingly difficult reelection race for the president in 2012, Mark McKinnon observes that "the average consumer confidence index when a president running for reelection wins is 95. When they lose, it's 76. Today the number is 55." Still, the present-day economic situation is highly unusual in that most Americans continue to blame the bad economy on forces outside of Obama's control.

A just released survey by CBS News poll reports that 69% of Americans believe President Obama has not made real progress in fixing the economy; 25% say he has made real progress. Yet, on the question of who to blame for the shaky economy, most--22%--cited the Bush administration, followed by Wall Street at 16%, Congress at 15% and then the Obama administration at 12%. One in 10 said "all of the above. Will this perception help President Obama in his quest for reelection. PollTrack thinks it's too early to tell. 

A poll by the American Research Group in South Carolina reports that Herman Cain has a tiny lead over Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential primary field: Cain is at 26%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 25%. Rick Perry is third at 15%.

A new survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has now taken the national lead over Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race, 30% to 22%, with Newt Gingrich at 15% and Rick Perry at 14%.The rest of the field remain in the single digits: Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul are tied for 5th at 5%, Jon Huntsman 7th at 2%, Rick Santorum 8th at 1%, and Gary Johnson 9th with less than 1%.

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Herman Cain has taken the lead in the Republican presidential race in Iowa with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 9%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 8% and Rick Santorum at 5%.

A survey by Washington Post/Bloomberg national reports that Mitt Romney now leads Herman Cain among likely Republican voters, 24% to 16%, with Rick Perry in third at 13%. All other candidates are in the single digits, except Jon Huntsman, who gets zero support.

A poll by WMUR9 Granite State reports that Mitt Romney has surged ahead of the Republican presidential field in New Hampshire. Romney leads with 42%. Herman Cain, in second place, doesn't even come close at 13%. Ron Paul is at 11%, Rudy Giuliani at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Rick Perry at 4% and Newt Gingrich at 4%.

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 55% of those surveyed believe President Obama will not be reelected next year, while 37% say he'll win. This kind of pessimism about a president's reelection prospects can serve as a self-fulfilling prophecy, both spurring on GOP support and dispiriting Democrats, whose lack of enthusiasm may result in lower voter turn out.

A new War Room Logistics (R) survey in Florida reports that Rick Perry's numbers in the state have taken a -16% nose dive. The poll finds Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential field with 28% among likely voters, followed by Herman Cain at 24%, Newt Gingrich at 10% and Rick Perry at 9%. PollTrack believes that the key number here is not Romney's or Perry's, but Cain who is now a close second, after winning the Florida Straw Poll last week. Cain's strong showing here--and his uptick nationally--could suggest that he is becoming a real contender in the GOP presidential nomination race.

In a sign that Iowa GOP voters, who tend to be more socially conservative the other early primary and caucus states, are more interested in winning against President Obama than ideological purity, a new American Research Group poll in the state reports that Mitt Romney now leads the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at 12%. All other candidates are in the single digits.

A survey by Fox News poll reports a significant drop in support for Rick Perry nationally among GOP voters. Mitt Romney now leads the Republican presidential field with 23%, followed by Rick Perry at 19% and Herman Cain at 17%. Within the past 30-days, Romney is up by +1%, Perry is down -10% and Cain is up +6%. In the Fox poll, Newt Gingrich comes in at 11%, Ron Paul is at 6% and Michele Bachmann is at 3%.

A new survey by CNN/Opinion Research survey reports that Rick Perry continues to lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Perry is ahead, with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Newt Gingrich at 11%, Herman Cain at 9%, Ron Paul at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Rick Santorum at 3% and Jon Huntsman at 1%. In general election match ups, however, Romney fares best against President Obama, trailing by just one point, 49% to 48%; Obama holds a five point lead over Perry, 51% to 46%.

What do Democratic and GOP insiders in Florida think of the GOP field and its chances against a sitting Democratic president? A new survey by St. Petersburg Times Florida Insider--which polled campaign consultants, lobbyists, activists --reports that two thirds of Democrats and two thirds of Republicans think Mitt Romney is a stronger general election candidate than Rick Perry. In the end, 50% of the Republican believe Romney will win the GOP primary in Florida next year, while 41% predicted Perry.

A survey by Florida Times-Union/Insider Advantage in Florida reports that Rick Perry now leads Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential primary race by nine points, 29% to 20%. All other candidates are in the single digits.

With his approval rating fairly low in Pennsylvania, it can only be seen as good news for President Obama that in a just released Magellan Strategies survey in Pennsylvania finds President Obama he now holds a comfortable lead pover potential Republican challengers Mitt Romney by 50% to 40%, and Rick Perry by 52% to 37%. PollTrack now rates the state "Leaning Democratic."

According to a new survey by CBS News/New York Times poll, Rick Perry continues to lead Mitt Romney nationally in the GOP presidential race, 23% to 16%. well behind, Newt Gingrich comes in at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, Herman Cain at 5%, Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 1%, Rick Santorum at 1%.

A survey by Public Policy Polling reports that Rick Perry continues to hold a significant lead over Mitt Romney nationally in the Republican presidential race, 31% to 18%. As for the other candidates, Ron Paul comes in at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 9%, Herman Cain at 8%, and Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum both at 2%.

According to a survey by Economist/YouGov, Rick Perry continues to maintain a solid lead for the GOP presidential nomination at 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 13%, Rudy Giuliani at 9%, and Sarah Palin at 8%, Ron Paul at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5% and Herman Cain at 5%.

A poll by Magellan Strategies in Nevada reports that Rick Perry leads Mitt Romney by five points, 29% to 24%, in on e of the first states to vote in the 2012 contest for the GOP nomination. The rest of the field trails, with Herman Cain at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Ron Paul at 6%, Newt Gingrich at 5%, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman at 1% each. 19% are undecided.

In numbers that may well bode poorly for the President, a new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania reports that his approval rating in the state is just 34%. Since PA is key presidential battleground state, it will be imperative for the Democrat to improve his standing in a state that has gone with the Democrat in every election since 1992.

A survey by Fox News reports that Rick Perry continues to lead the Republican presidential field nationally with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%. No other candidate garners double-digit support.

A survey by Muhlenberg College poll suggests that President Obama's reelection effort may be in trouble in Pennsylvania. His approval rate has dropped to 35% in the key swing state. The poll's analysis concludes that there may be room for movement in the poll: "31% of Pennsylvanians say their vote in November 2012 will depend on who the Republican candidate is. And Obama still slightly edges out an anonymous GOP contender 36 percent to 31%." Nevertheless, with the incumbent polling well below that 48% to 50% threshold, the numbers suggest a difficult race for Obama in 2012. 

In what has very serious implications for President Obama's reelection chances, a new survey by Public Policy Polling survey reports a considerable ebb of Democratic enthusiasm about voting in next year's election. Just 48% of Democrats--a new low--say they were "very excited" about voting in 2012.  In 13 previous polls, the average level was 57%. It had risen as high as 65% (during the 2008 presidential election) and only twice had the number dropped below 55%.

In what is clearly good news for the President's reelection chances, a survey by CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that Obama's Democratic base remains overwhelmingly behind him. 70% of Democrats now say that they would like to see Obama as their party's presidential nominee next year.

A survey by Gallup (of registered voters) reports that President Obama may be headed for a very tight reelection effort. Mitt Romney leads Obama, 48% to 46%, Rick Perry and Obama are tied at 47%, and Obama edges out Ron Paul, 47% to 45%, and tops Michele Bachmann, 48% to 44%.

In a stunning realignment of the GOP presidential field, two new polls now show Texas Governor Rick Perry overtaking Mitt Romney as frontrunner. A survey by Gallup reports that Perry now leads the pack with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 17%, Ron Paul at 13% and Michele Bachmann at 10%. All other contenders are below 5% in support. And a new Public Policy Polling survey has Perry at 33%, Romney at 20%, Bachmann at 16%, Newt Gingrich at 8% and Herman Cain and Ron Paul at 6%.

A survey by Public Policy Polling in Iowa reports that Rick Perry now leads the GOP presidential nomination field with 22%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Michele Bachmann at 18%, Ron Paul at 16%. Herman Cain polls 7%; Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are at 5%; and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

A survey by McLaughlin & Associates in Florida reports that Mitt Romney maintains a double-digit lead over the rest of the GOP presidential field: the former Massachusetts Governor comes in at 27%, followed by Rick Perry at 16%, and Michele Bachmann at 10%. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain trial at 5% each.

A survey by We Ask America asked Iowa Republicans who they to see win the GOP nomination for president in 2012. The poll suggests that in the Hawkeye State, at least, there may be a new frontrunner: Rick Perry comes out on top with 29%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 17% and Mitt Romney at 15%.

A survey by Magellan poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential primary pack with 36%, followed by Rick Perry at 18%, Rep. Ron Paul at 14% and Rep. Michele Bachmann at 10%. All other candidates are at 3% or less.

A survey by McClatchy-Marist reports that Americans are evenly divided over the question of whether President Obama deserves re-election: 40% say they will definitely vote for the president next year; 40% say they will not. The remaining 20% are unsure. Still, the poll detects an inherent edge for the president: when matched against specific Republican challengers Obama edges out every one, a possible indication of the weakness of the GOP field as well as the general likeability of the president.

According to Sunday's presidential approval tracking poll, President Obama's approval rating has dropped to the lowest point of his presidency, and the first time it has dipped below 40%. Obama now stands at 39% approval, while a significant 54% of voters disapprove of his job performance.

In yet another sign that the road to reelection may be moe difficult than expected for President Obama, a new Quinnipiac poll in the key swing state of Florida reports that the president's job approval rating is a negative 44% to 51%. Florida voters also say by a 50% to 42% margin that the president does not deserve to be reelected. Nevertheless, with weak Republican opposition, the president manages to best two of all potential candidates and ties another:Mitt Romney is dead even with Obama at 44%; the president has double-digit leads over other top Republicans, except for Texas Gov. Rick Perry who trails Obama 44% to 39%.

A just released Gallup Poll reports that Mitt Romney remains the frontrunner for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination with 24. He is followed by Rick Perry at 17%, Rep. Ron Paul at 14% and Rep. Michele Bachmann at 13%. All other GOP contenders are at single digits in the survey.

A new national poll reports that President Obama's advantage "over a generic Republican challenger in 2012 shrank by 10 points in the past three months. Now, just 41 percent of registered voters say they would send the president back to the White House while 40 percent prefer to elect a Republican candidate, according to a Pew Research Center survey. In May, the president led a generic Republican, 48 percent to 37 percent." The survey, by Pew,  suggests "independent voters are driving this drop. In May, 42 percent of independents supported Obama's re-election, while 35 percent preferred his challenger. Now, that figure is upside down: 31 percent of independents are inclined to vote for him in 2012 while 39 percent want to replace him with a Republican."

While there may be no real winners in the just concluded Deficit/Debt Ceiling negotiations, a new Gallup poll reports that "Americans are more likely to approve of the way President Obama is handling the negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling than they are to approve of the handling of the situation by Speaker of the House John Boehner or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, although opinions about all three are more negative than positive." Here is Gallup's chart: 

It what can be read as good news for President Obama in Ohio, A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has a commanding lead over two potential GOP challengers. Brown leads State Treasurer Josh Mandel, 49% to 34%, and tops State Sen. Kevin Coughlin, 50% to 32%.Combined with the exceptionally low approval rating of the state's Republican Governor, these numbers suggests that the closely divided state is trending slightly more Democratic in recent days

In what could spell serious trouble for the President's reelection effort next year, A new Pew Research survey reports that the GOP has made significant gains among white voters in the three years since Barack Obama was elected president. In 2008, the Republicans could claim a 2% lead among whites--46% to 44%. Today, that lead has expanded to a whopping +13% lead today, 52% to 39%. To put these numbers in perspective, Obama won the 2008 race with only 43% of the white vote. Any significant diminution of that number would greatly hamper his reelection effort.

A just released Public Policy Polling national survey reports that Rep. Michele Bachmann has moved into a tiny, statistically insignificant, lead among likely Republican voters in the GOP presidential race. Bachmann tops the field with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 20%, Rick Perry at 12%, Herman Cain at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 5% and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

A just released American Research Group poll in South Carolina reports that Mitt Romney holds a significant lead among likely Republican primary voters with 25%, followed by Sarah Palin at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 13%, Herman Cain at 10% and Rudy Giuliani and Rick Perry both at 6%,

A Gallup survey of registered voters reports that they are "more likely to vote for the Republican Party's candidate for president" than for President Obama in next year's election. The generic GOP candidate leads by a significant margin: 47% to 39%. Early surveys this year have indicated a much more evenly divided electorate.

According to the most recent analysis by Gallup, "President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaged 46% in June, down from 50% in May but similar to his ratings from February through April. Obama's strongest support continues to come from blacks (86%), adults aged 18 to 29 (54%), those living in the East (53%), and Hispanics (52%). This is in addition to 81% approval from fellow Democrats (as well as 75% from liberals and 55% from moderates, not shown here). Republicans (14%), conservatives (24%), whites (38%), seniors (39%), and those living in the South (40%) are the least likely to approve of Obama. PollTrack believes that the president average approval rating of 46% places him below the threshold for likely reelection. We will be watching these numbers closely as we move into the 2012 cycle.

Another poll of Iowa Republicans, this one from Magellan Strategies reports that Michele Bachmann holds a significant lead among likely caucus attendees with 29%, followed by Mitt Romney at 16%, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain at 8%, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 5% and Rick Santorum at 3%. 24% of respondents remain undecided. A Mason-Dixon poll in the state reports that Michele Bachmann leads among likely caucus-goers--though by a smaller margin--with 32%, followed by Mitt Romney at 29%, Tim Pawlenty at 7% and Rick Santorum at 6%.

With Pennsylvania a must win for any Democratic candidate for president, it looks as if President Obama's reelection could be in jeopardy. A just released Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania reports that the state is "looking more and more like it could be a tough hold" for the Democrats in 2012.  PPP continues: "[Obama's] approval rating in the state continues to be under water at 46/48... Obama's poll numbers are worse in Pennsylvania than they are in places like Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico, all states that went Republican in 2004 even as Pennsylvania voted Democratic. The President's persistently poor numbers in a state that's gone Democratic in every Presidential election for the last 24 years probably make Pennsylvania the place where Obama should be most concerned about his current standing."

A just released survey for the Iowa Republican reports that Michele Bachmann now leads the pack of 2012 GOP presidential contenders with 25%, followed by Mitt Romney at 21%, Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain at 9%, Ron Paul at 6%, Newt Gingrich at 4%, Rick Santorum at 2% and John Hunstman at 1%.

In what amounts to another warning sign for incumbents in the 2012 cycle, a new Time/Aspen Ideas Festival poll reports that a whopping 71% of Americans, including a majority of every major demographic group other than African Americans, see the United States as worse off now than it was a decade ago.

While many in the GOP are urging NJ Governor Chris Christie to run for the 2012 nomination for president, he remains relatively unpopular in his home state. A Bloomberg New Jersey poll reports that 51% of New Jersey residents say they wouldn't support Gov. Chris Christie for a second term, "disapproving of his choices on a range of policy and personal issues, from killing a commuter tunnel to using a state-police helicopter to attend his son's baseball game."

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential primary with 25%. The news is that the second placed candidate, Michele Bachmann, has surged in recent weeks, and now stands at 18%. Sarah Palin comes in at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry and Herman Cain at 7%, John Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Newt Gingrich at 4%. According to PPP: "Bachmann's surge in New Hampshire is being built on the back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of that movement she's leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%."

A new WMUR Granite State Poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney maintains a huge lead in the 2012 GOP presidential primary: He now stands in the survey at 35%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 12%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rudy Giuliani at 7%, Rick Perry at 4%, Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin at 3%, and Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain at 2%.

A Fox News poll reports that Mitt Romney leads the quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president with 18%, followed by Rick Perry at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rudy Giuliani at 10%, Sarah Palin at 8%, Ron Paul at 7% and Herman Cain at 5%. The remaining candidates get less than 5% combined of the vote.

Could the GOP Primary in Florida be decisive in next year's Republican quest for the nomination for president? A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida reports that Mitt Romney has a double digit lead for the GOP presidential nomination. He also maintains the lead in other early voting states, such as New Hampshire and (by a whisker), Iowa. In Florida, Romney leads with 27%, followed by Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann at 17%, Herman Cain at 10%,  Newt Gingrich at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

A New York Times/CBS News poll reports that GOP voters are not at all enthusiastic for the pack of 2012 contenders for the Republican nomination for president: 70% of GOP voters now express dissatisfaction with their candidates and wish they had more choices. Even the presumptive frontrunners--Mitt Romney and Rep. Michele Bachmann--could muster the enthusiasm of no more than 7% of Republican voters apiece.

A Pew Research poll reports that "the public's economic optimism is now at its lowest point since July 2008, shortly before the financial crisis." According to the survey, 29% of respondents expect that economic conditions will be better a year from now; 23% say things will be worse. Last October, a considerable plurality of respondents said the economy would be better, rather than worse, in a year (35% vs. 16%).

A just released Associated Press-GfK poll reports that Americans are virtually tied on the question of whether President Obama deserves re-election: 48% say yes, 47% no.

Good news for Mitt Romney in the year's first Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the Republican presidential field. While pundits have wondered whether Romney may be consrrvative enough to win the GOP Iowa Caucus, which tilts towards social conservatives, the poll has Romney in the lead at 23%. The bad news for the former Massachusetts Governor is that Michele Bachmann is nearly tied with him at 22% among likely Republican caucus-goers. They are followed by Herman Cain at 10%, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4% and Jon Huntsman at 2%.

In yet another problem for the incumbent president, The Fix examines the most recent state-by-state unemployment numbers and reports "that in every one of the 14 swing states heading into 2012 -- Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- the unemployment rate has risen since October 2008."

In what may become a looming problem for President Obama in his 2012 reelection effort, a new Gallup survey reports that Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going in the country fell to just 20%; 78% of Americans are now dissatisfied with the nation's direction.

A new Field Poll in California reports: Mitt Romney "holds a solid lead over his 2012 GOP presidential rivals among the state's Republican voters . . . Romney is preferred by 25 percent of registered GOP voters, giving the former Massachusetts governor a double-digit lead over each of his challengers. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, viewed as Romney's leading competitor for the nomination, barely registered in the poll, earning just 3 percent support . . .

Romney's closest competition comes from two candidates who haven't even joined the race to deny Democratic President Obama a second term: former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (17 percent), and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (10 percent). If Giuliani is taken out of the field, Romney's lead widens - to 30 percent and a more than 2-to-1 lead over Palin at 12 percent in second position, the poll shows."

Another poll in New Hampshire, this one from Magellan Strategies reports that Mitt Romney holds a substantial lead over all potential GOP primary challengers with 42%: Rep. Ron Paul and Rep. Michelle Bachmann are tied at 10%, Sarah Palin comes in at 7%, Rudy Giuliani at 6% and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.

A just released Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reports that Mitt Romney is considerably ahead in his quest for the 2012 GOP nomination for president: he now is at 30%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Herman Cain at 12%, Rick Perry at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Newt Gingrich at 6%, Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum at 4% and Michele Bachmann at 3%. In a general election match up,
45% said they would probably vote to re-elect President Obama; 40% would opt for a generic Republican candidate. Against specific GOP contenders, the president's lead increased considerably, with Obama besting Romney, 49% to 43%.

In a good sign for Democrats, party affiliation has grown in recent months comparable to the GOP. A new Gallup poll finds 45% of Americans identified as Democrats last month as compared to 39% who identified as Republicans.

A new poll reports that President Obama is struggling in his reelection bid in Pennsylvania: "It's no secret that President Obama is on the down-slope politically, and that includes the pivotal state of Pennsylvania. A new poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research says that 48% of Pennsylvanians disapprove of Obama's performance, while 41% approve. Also: Only 43% of registered voters in Pennsylvania say Obama has done well enough to deserve re-election, the poll said; 50% say 'it is time to give a new person a chance.'"

Two GOP Minnesota politicians are considering a race for president in 2012: Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty. What do the people of the state think about this. A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Minnesota voters are, at best, cool to the idea: "Only 28% think Pawlenty should seek the White House to 17% who think he should run for the Senate and 45% who think he shouldn't run for anything. There's even less interest in a Bachmann Presidential run -- 14% think she should seek that office to 23% who think she should run for the Senate, 10% who think she should run for reelection to her House seat, and 47% who just want her to go away."

A National Journal survey of Democratic insiders reports that Mitt Romney is seen as the biggest threat to President Obama by 27%, followed closely by Jon Huntsman at 25%, Tim Pawlenty at 20%, Chris Christie at 11%, and Rick Perry at 5%.

Public Policy Polling national survey of the strength of potential candidates for the 2012 GOP nomination reports that with Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump out of the race, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin are now leading the pack with 16% each. Tim Pawlenty is at 13%, Herman Cain at 12% and Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul at 9%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa finds Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential field with 21%; Sarah Palin and Herman Cain are each at at 15%; Newt Gingrich at 12%; Michele Bachman at 11%; Tim Pawlenty at 10%;and Ron Paul at 8%.

The latest Quinnipiac poll in Florida has very good news for President Obama: approval rating in the state has improved significantly since early April -- before the death of Osama bin Laden. His numbers have flipped from a net negative approval of 44% to 52% to a net positive of 51% in favor and 43% opposed. Perhaps more significant: a majority of Florida voters now say Obama deserves reelection, 50% to 44%. The biggest movement is among independents: "Obama's improved job rating in Florida is largely due to a big swing among independent voters, from a negative 39% to 55% April 7 to a split 47% to 45% today."

Can Wisconsin Democrats save the US Senate seat being vacated in 2012 with the retirement of Herb Kohl? A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin suggests that one strong Democratic candidate may be former US Sen. Russ Feingold, defeated in late year's GOP wipe-out. In hypothetical match ups, Feingold leads Tommy Thompson (R), 52% to 42%, Mark Neumann (R), 53% to 41%, JB Van Hollen (R), 53% to 38%, and Jeff Fitzgerald (R), 54% to 39%.

A just released WMUR-CNN poll in New Hampshire reports that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has a huge lead in the Republican presidential race with 33%, followed by Rep. Ron Paul at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Rudy Giuliani at 6%.

A just released USA Today/Gallup survey roports that a mere 28% of registered voters believe that most members of Congress deserve re-election; this number ties the low set last year, before the GOP's historic gains. Gallup observes: "The anti-incumbent mood that led to sweeping changes in Congress after the 2010 elections persists, and the accompanying change in House leadership has not fundamentally altered the way Americans view Congress. Thus, incumbents remain vulnerable heading into the 2012 election cycle, though perhaps not quite as vulnerable as in 2010, given that voters are now more inclined to say their own member deserves re-election."

An Associated Press-GfK poll reports that 45% of Republicans remain dissatisfied with the field of declared GOP presidential candidates as well as those believed to be serious about running. This represents a 12% gain from one month ago. Just 41% are satisfied with these candidates, down from 52%.

In a hint of the priorities of GOP voters in the primaries and caucuses for the 2012 nomination for president, a Gallup survey reports that "given a choice, 36% of Republicans say business and the economy are the most important political issues to them, up from 32% in March, and now on par with the percentage who say the same about government spending and power. Fewer Republicans choose either social issues and moral values or national security and foreign policy as their top political priorities." Here is Gallup's chart:

If critically wounded Democratic U.S. Representative Gabrielle Giffords were to run in the 2012 Arizona US Senate race, a new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona reports that she would start out with a 7 point lead in a hypothetical match up with likely GOP candidate Rep. Jeff Flake, 48% to 41%.

A just released Fox News poll reports that Mitt Romney is now in the lead among GOP voters for the 2012 nomination: Romney comes in at 19%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 17%, Sarah Palin at 9%, Trump at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7% and Ron Paul at 7%.

A new American Research Group poll in South Carolina reports that Mike Huckabee now leads in another key early primary state for the 2012 GOP nomination. Huckabe comes in at with 20%, followed closely by Mitt Romney at 18%. Donald Trump at 13% and Sarah Palin at 10%.

A new ABC News/Washington Post Poll reports that even though President Obama's job approval rating has dropped to 47 percent, "he leads all potential GOP candidates. In a head-to-head matchups, Obama leads Romney by 4 points, 49-45 percent; Huckabee by 6 points, 50-44 percent; Trump by 12 points, 52-40 percent; Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., by 12 points; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Gingrich by 15 points each; and Palin by 17 points"

A new McClatchy-Marist Poll suggests that President Obama remains vulnerable in his reelection effort. The survey reports that 44% of American voters say they definitely plan to vote against Obama next year; 37% definitely plan to vote for him; and 18% are unsure. Still, the President bests all Republican challengers in the poll's hypothetical match ups: Mitt Romney does best against Obama, but still trails, 46% to 45%, while Mike Huckabee trails by 48% to 43%.

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa reports that Mike Huckabee is way ahead in the 2012 GOP nomination race for president. Huckabee leads with 27%, followed by Mitt Romney at 16%, Donald Trump at 14%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Sarah Palin at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 6%, Ron Paul at 6% and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.

According to Public Policy Polling, Donald Trump now leads the GOP pack for the 2012 GOP nomination for president, with 26%; Mike Huckabee follows with 17%, Mitt Romney at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 11%, Sarah Palin at 8% and Ron Paul at 5%.

Despite the enthusiasm of many Republicans for his policy's of Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, who has been mentioned as a possible Republican presidential candidate in 2012, remains mostly unknown to most Americans. A new Gallup survey notes that "overall, 27% of Americans view him favorably and 22% unfavorably. Among Republicans, his ratings are 41% favorable and 12% unfavorable."

In a troubling sign for the administration, a new Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll suggests that President Obama is in a poor position for retaking Florida in his 2012 reellction bid. Right now, only 34% of independent voters in Florida approve of Obama's job performance. Both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee would now defeat the president in Florida if the election were held today.

A new Fox News poll show a closely matched GOP field for the 2012 nomination, with no potential Republican presidential candidate breaking out of a crowded field. Mike Huckabee is ahead with 15%; Mitt Romney is at 14%; Sarah Palin at 12% and Donald Trump at 11%. Other candidates remain the the single digits.

According to Gallup, "With President Obama officially announcing his candidacy for re-election on Monday, the question of whom he will run against becomes even more relevant. Three possible Republican candidates -- Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich -- are currently best situated among Republicans nationwide in terms of name recognition and Gallup Positive Intensity Scores. Sarah Palin and Ron Paul are also well known, but generate lower net enthusiasm from those who know them. Of the less well-known potential GOP candidates, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty have the highest Positive Intensity Scores." Here is Gallup's chart

A just released Neighborhood Research poll of likely Iowa Republican presidential caucus-goers reports that Mike Huckabee leads the GOP pack with 21%, followed by Mitt Romney at 14%, Donald Trump at 9%, Newt Gingrich at 8%, Sarah Palin at 7%, Michele Bachmann at 5% and Tim Pawlenty at 4%.

According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, Mitt Romney leads the GOP presidential nomination race with 21%, followed by Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee both at 17%. Newt Gingrich was in fourth place with 11%, followed by Sarah Palin at 10% and Tim Pawlenty at 6%.

Despite the state's overwhelming Democratic tilt, Massachusetts continues to support incumbent GOP U.S. Senator Scott Brown. An internal Democratic poll suggests his popularity is on the rise: "The survey, which has been seen by at least one D.C. insider and was detailed for Salon, measured Brown's approval rating at 73% -- easily surpassing the scores for Barack Obama and the state's two top Democrats, Gov. Deval Patrick and Sen. John Kerry. It also found him running over the magic 50% mark against every potential Democratic challenger, and crushing the strongest perceived Democrats (Reps. Michael Capuano and Ed Markey and former Rep. Marty Meehan) by double-digit margins. The results only grew closer when respondents were primed with negative information about Brown."

According to National Journal, "the Hispanic population surged 43% in the last decade and Hispanics now make up more than 16% of the nation's population." As the Journal notes, this jump could have enormous implications, both for the Democratic and Republican parties: "Every state in the nation saw a surge in Latinos, and traditional Latino gateways along the border still have the highest percentage, other states also saw rapid Hispanic growth: There are now 17  states where Hispanics make up at least 10 percent of the population, including Utah, Rhode Island and Kansas. In five states, Hispanics now account for at least a quarter of the population. In states such as Texas and Arizona, that could be good news for Democrats, who have been benefitting from a Hispanic backlash against Republicans' tough rhetoric on illegal immigration. Exit polls indicated that President Obama got two-thirds of the Hispanic vote in the 2008 election."

In what may spell good news for the President's reelection efforts next year, a new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown ahead in his reelection effort, suggesting a lessing of GOP gains in this ultimate swing state. Brown is supported over an unnamed GOP challenger by 45% to 29%. Additionally, voters say--by a margin of 45% to 30%--that Brown deserves a second term. Does this suggest a true reversal of GOP fortunes in the state? Time will tell. 

A new Gallup survey reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead in the race for the 2012 GOP Presidential nomination with 19%; he is followed by Mitt Romney at 15%, Sarah Palin at 12% and Newt Gingrich at 10%. According to Gallup, if "Huckabee were not a candidate, most of his support would go to the top three remaining candidates. Romney and Palin would essentially tie for the lead, at 19% and 17%, respectively, with Gingrich getting a bump in support to 13%."

According to a just released Daily Caller/ConservativeHome poll, a tiny plurality of Republicans--15%-- would like to see New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) as their presidential candidate in 2012. However, 27% expect Mitt Romney to win the nomination.

A just released We Ask America poll in Iowa reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead the Republican presidential pack, with 20%, followed by Sarah Palin at 14%, Newt Gingrich at 13%, Mitt Romney at 13%, Donald Trump at 9%, Ron Paul at 5%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, Haley Barbour at 3% and Mitch Daniels at 2%.

A just released Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that there may be problems ahead for President Obama in his 2012 reelection bid: Americans now believe the country is on the wrong track by a huge margin--64% to 31%. The move is driven largely by the rise in gasoline prices due to Middle East turmoil. A perhaps even more ominous warning sign: the president's job approval dropped slightly to 49% from last month, but his approval rating among independent voters--a key continuency for his reelection chances--took a significant ten point dive to 37%.

A Winthrop University poll of southern states reports that Mike Huckabee leads his hypothetical rivals in the 2012 Republican presidential primary rivals.  Huckabee receives 21.9%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12.9%, Sarah Palin at 8.7%, Mitt Romney at 6.9%, Tim Pawlenty at 6.2% and Ron Paul at 5.7%. The president's approval rating remains extremely low in the South, with just 38% approving and 51% disapproving.

Want a sense of how President Obama is doing in the state by state hunt for electoral votes in 2012? A just released Gallup state survey finds President Obama's approval rating in 2010 ranged from 66% in Hawaii to just 28% in Wyoming. Gallup writes: "More broadly, the president enjoyed 50% or higher approval in a group of 12 traditionally Democratic states, plus the District of Columbia. At the same time, he suffered average approval rates of 43% or less in 18 other states, most of which are traditionally "red" states."Here is Gallup's chart:

.

Does the GOP hold an innate advantage in 2012 national races--including the president's reelection? The answer may now be yes, after several cycles of Democratic dominance. Gallup reports that between 2008 and 2010, the number of states that are lean-Democratic or strongly Democratic has decreased by more than half, from 30 to 14. Conversely, the number of lean-Republican and strongly Republican states has increased considerably, up from five to 10. And the number of so-called purple--or closely competitive states--has almost doubled, going from 10 to 18.

A just released Newsweek/Daily Beast poll reports that Mike Huckabee is tied with President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 presidential match up, 46% to 46%. In other match ups, Obama edges Mitt Romney, 49% to 47%, beats Donald Trump, 43% to 40%, and tops Sarah Palin, 51% to 40%.

A Public Policy Polling survey reports that President Obama runs dead even in a re-election match up against a generic Republican, 47% to 47%. But when things get specific, the President's numbers improve considerably: he leads all of the named candidates in the poll, with a 3% advantage over Mike Huckabee, a 5% lead over Mitt Romney, a 9% lead over Newt Gingrich, and a whopping 12% advantage one over Sarah Palin.

A impreMedia/Latino Decisions poll reports that President Obama's approval rating among Latino voters is now up to an impressive 70%, after decreasing last year. Surprisingly, however, just 43% of Latino voters say they are sure they will vote for Obama next year.The latter number continues to suggest an opening for the GOP among Latino voters in the upcoming cycle.

With calls for President George W. Brush's brother Jeb to throw his hat into the ring for the 2012 presidential election cycle, a key question remains: How strong a candidate would he make. A just released Fox News poll reports that President Obama leads Bush 54% to 34% in the poll, poor numbers indded for the former Florida governor.

A just released Fox News poll reports that President Obama leads all Republican challengers in hypothetical match ups for his 2012 reelection bid, by at least seven points. He leads Mitt Romney, 48% to 41%, beats Mike Huckabee, 49% to 41%, tops Sarah Palin, 56% to 35%, and is ahead of Newt Gingrich, 55% to 35%.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey offers an early look at potential 2012 match-ups,reporting that "Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee essentially run even with Obama at this point. Romney is nominally up two points, 44% to 42%, while Huckabee is tied with the president at 43% apiece. Three other well-known potential candidates, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul trail the president. Palin is down by 11 points, 49% to 38%, Gingrich by eight, 47% to 39%, and Paul by nine, 44% to 35%" 

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that Mike Huckabee continues to lead Republican presidential hopefuls nationally with 21%, followed by Sarah Palin at 19%, Mitt Romney at 18%, Newt Gingrich at 10% and Ron Paul at 7%.

Nate Silver offers an interesting analysis of the 2012 GOP presidential field, exploring their status as insider vs. outsider and moderate vs. conservatives. Silver writes: "One dimension is obvious: we can classify the candidates from left to right, from relatively more moderate to relatively more conservative. But another dimension that is often salient in the primaries, and perhaps especially so for Republicans next year, is what we might think of as the insider/outsider axis: whether the candidate is viewed as part of the Republican establishment, or as a critic of it."

An analysis by Politico suggests that the GOP may have an inherent advantage in the 2012 US Senate races, and may well be poised to take over from the Democrats: "Montana Rep. Denny Rehberg will challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in 2012, giving Republicans their first-choice candidate for the race and putting yet another incumbent in serious jeopardy. . . .  [An] Opinion Diagnostics survey of 400 likely Montana voters showed 49 percent backing Rehberg compared to 43 percent for Tester and 8 percent undecided . . . Rehberg’s announcement will mean Republicans have high-profile, formally announced challengers in four states where Democrats are up for reelection: Montana, Missouri (former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman), Nebraska (state Attorney General Jon Bruning) and Virginia (former Sen. George Allen). That’s not to mention the open Senate seat in North Dakota, where Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad’s retirement gives Republicans a strong pickup opportunity, and Florida, where several solid candidates are circling the race against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. Some of these candidates are facing competitive primaries, but the big picture is this: Senate Republicans have already put a sizable list of Democratic seats in play and they only need to net four to hit the 51-seat mark."

Strategic National commissioned two polls of the Republican presidential race in Iowa and New Hampshire. Here are the results: In Iowa, Mike Huckabee leads by at 28%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Sarah Palin at 12%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Tim Pawlenty at 4% and Michele Bachmann at 4%. In New Hampshire, it is Mitt Romney who leads at 34%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 14%, Sarah Palin at 13%, Newt Gingrich at 9% and Tim Pawlenty at 5%.

President Obama's aggregate approval rating surging dramatically in recent days, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds the president in his best position against the major Republican contenders since 2009. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee each trail the president by +5%; Newt Gingrich trails by 12% and Sarah Palin by a whopping 17%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that Mike Huckabee is the clear leader for the GOP nomination for president in 2012. Huckabee leads with 24%; Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney are tied at 14%; Newt Gingrich at 11%; Tim Pawlenty at 8%; and Ron Paul at 7%. PPP writes: "[Huckabee's] ahead with both moderates and conservatives, showing an ability to unify two wings of the party that have become increasingly polarized from each other with the rise of the Tea Party movement. That's important not just for snagging the nomination but also for Republican prospects of winning the general -- they can't do it without a candidate who is able to hold the entire base in line."

If Mitt Romney is way ahead in the New Hampshire primary, a Neighborhood Research poll in Iowa tells a different story: Mike Huckabee leading the GOP presidential field in the crucial first voting state (though a caucus unlike NH) with 24%, followed by Mitt Romney at 19%, Sarah Palin at 11% and Newt Gingrich at 8%. A new Public Policy Polling survey in Iowa also reports that Mike Huckabee is ahead, with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Sarah Palin at 15% and Newt Gingrich at 13%.

How does the GOP field for the 2012 presidential contest look in New Hampshire, the first state to hold a primary next year? A new Magellan Strategies poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a huge lead with 39%, followed by Sarah Palin at 16% and Mike Huckabee at 10%. How significant are these numbers? As Dave Weigel notes, Romney is "the only 2012 candidate with any geographic claim to New Hampshire" so "anything less than a monster win makes him look a lot like Muskie."

A just released survey from CNN/Opinion Research reports that 78% of Democrats would like to see President Obama renominated for a second term. Hovering nearly 80%, this number the highest the President's support among Democrats support has been all year.

Right now, president Obama would win the Democratic primary handily against hypothetical Democratic challengers. A according to a new Magellan Strategies poll in New Hampshire, the President Obama is well positioned in the unlikely event he's challenged in a Democratic presidential primary.  He beats Hillary Clinton by 31 points--59% to 28%, and bests Howard Dean by 68 points--78% to 10%.

An analysis of yesterday's polling from Marist University by Nate Silver suggests the erosion of support among Democrats and liberals could--the operative word is could--have an adverse effect on President's Obama's reelection chances. Silver observes: "A new poll from Marist University is suggestive of a potential worst-case scenario for President Obama. As he endures criticism from his left over his handling of the tax policy debate with Republicans, his approval rating has declined among liberals, according to the poll: 69% of them now approve of his job performance as compared with 78% in November. Likewise, his approval rating has declined among Democrats: to 74% from 83%. However, there has been no comparable improvement in Mr. Obama’s standing among independents. . . . " For the full analysis, click here.

This analysis from Jeff Madrick via Frank Rich via, in The New York Times, should make the Democrats worry, re: the President's reelection chances in 2012: "As the economics commentator Jeff Madrick wrote in The Huffington Post, the unemployment rate has been above 7 percent only four times in a presidential election year since World War II — and in three of the four the incumbent lost (Ford, Carter, the first Bush). Reagan did win in 1984 with an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent, but the rate was falling rapidly (from a high of 10.8 two years earlier) . . . But as Madrick adds, there has never been a sitting president over that period who has had to run with an unemployment rate as high as 8 percent — which is precisely where the Fed’s most recent forecasts predict the rate could be mired when Obama faces the voters again in 2012."

With its treasure trove of 55 winner take all Electoral Votes, California is important to President Obama's reelection prospects in 2012. A new analysis, suggests that the Democrats are well positioned in the state. A Los Angeles Times/USC poll reports that California voters, by a wide margin, are reluctant to support GOP candidates. "Strikingly, almost one in five California voters said they would never cast a ballot for a Republican," the survey reports. "Among Latinos, that rose to almost one in three. Only 5% of California voters were as emphatically anti-Democrat . . . The negative overlay both explained and helped determine the fates of the party's candidates in November. As a GOP tide swept the nation, Republicans here lost all statewide offices, with one contest, for attorney general, still unresolved but leaning toward the Democrat. Republicans here also failed to gain any congressional seats and lost a legislative seat."

Wondering how the congressional map will look in 2012 after the restricting of congressional districts that will begin next year? In his preview of the upcoming reapportionment of congressional districts, Sean Trende notes that the just concluded midterms, which saw a number of state houses turn towards the Republican, may indeed bode poorly for the Democrats: "As bad as 2010 was for House Democrats, 2012 could be even worse. Republicans don't have a lot of exposure, since most of their gains were in red territory. More importantly, Republicans will control more seats in redistricting than they have since the states began regular decennial redistricting in 1972."

Using census estimates of where population is growing and falling within states, Trende "offers his thoughts on how redistricting will most likely shape things in 2012." His analysis is fascinating and insightful--a window onto the upcoming reconfiguration of congressional districts. For more, click here. 

Where does President Obama stand in his reelection bid? How does he stack up against a generic Republican candidate. A new Politico poll reports that while Obama trailing a generic Republican opponent for reelection, 40% to 37%, he comes out at least 6% points ahead when matched up with likely Republican contenders Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee and Haley Barbour. Like GOP loses in US Senate races with unpopular incumbents--like Nevada and Colorado--Obama's ability to overtake specific GOP candidates suggests that the president's relative popularity will be no more important than the relative popularity of GOP candidates in determine who will come out ahead in 2012. Stay tuned.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll reports that Sarah Palin is the most divisive of the potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates; public perceptions of Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are more positive. 46% of Americans see Palin as favorable; 49% as unfavorable. Huckabee has the highest favorability rating at 49%; 27% view him unfavorably. Romney has a 46% favorabliy rating, while 31% view him unfavorably.

In the coming weeks, PollTrack will introduce an innovative map devoted to tracking Election 2012, specifically the relative state of the incumbent Democratic president and a generic Republican challenger in their state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Two years out, PollTrack will test the mood of all 50 states (and DC), gauging the mood of the country, its regions, and states as the current president nears his bid for reelection.

WRITING ON THE WALL will continue to report on statewide trends for local and national political figures, taking a look at upcoming local races in 2011, and their implications for the upcoming national cycle in 2012.

PRESIDENTIAL: In addition to our innovating tracking of the 2012 Election, the presidential page will continue to follow the relative popularity of the Obama administration as well as national trends for the Republican and Democratic Part as well as any independent parties.

VOICES ON THE GROUND: Will resume next year with reports from Americans on the ground--political and cultural figures and interested citizens, alike--reporting on local political and cultural trends leading up to the 2012 cycle, from the perspective that matters most: with voters on the ground.

So stay tuned to PollTrack.

Assessing the president's reelection chances in 2012, a new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Obama is tied at 47% with a generic Republican challenger. PPP writes: "The takeaway from this poll is about the same as every month -- Obama's pretty weak but his likely opposition is pretty darn weak too."

Would Sarah Palin make a good president? Most Americans say no, according to a 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair poll. 59% of Americans said they don't think Sarah Palin would be an effective president of the United States. GOP voters have a different opinion, however: by a 47% to 40% margin, Republicans believe Palin would be an effective president.

A new CNN poll reports that Mitt Romney leads the field of potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates with 21%, followed by Sarah Palin at 18%, Newt Gingrich at 15%, Mike Huckabee at 14% and Ron Paul at 10%. Another poll, however, from Public Policy Polling survey shows the candidates essentially tied: Huckabee at 23%, Romney at 22%, Palin at 21% and Gingrich at 21%.

A newly released survey from the Clarus Research Group of GOP voters reports that support for Sarah Palin for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination has fallen considerably since March, declining from 18% to 12%. Clarus reports: "Palin gets more attention from the national media than presidential support from Republicans. The major change since March is that Gingrich has now edged out Palin for third place, even though the two are running well within the statistical margin of error."

According to a new Gallup survey, American "registered voters remain split on whether President Obama deserves to be re-elected in 2012, with 46% saying he does and 51% saying he does not -- little changed from earlier this year." Here is their chart:

Gallup continues: "The most recent Obama re-elect measure is similar to the president's basic job approval rating among all Americans, which was 48% in Gallup Daily tracking [in mid-June] . . . Obama received 53% of the popular vote in his 2008 victory over Republican John McCain. The current re-elect data suggest that -- depending on the Republican nominee -- the 2012 presidential election could be quite competitive were it held today."

Who is the most popular candidate among Iowa Republicans for the 2012 presidential race? A recent Iowa Poll reports that 62% of Republicans are very or mostly favorable toward Mitt Romney; 58% like Sarah Palin; and 56% are favorable to Newt Gingrich. PollTrack suggests not reading much into this very early sampling of GOP sentiment. Much can change over the next years and a half.

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that President Obama is virtually tied with all four of the leading candidates for the Republican nomination. The poll's results: Obama trails Mike Huckabee 47% to 45% and Mitt Romney 45% to 44%. He is tied with Newt Gingrich, at 45%. He leads one candidate by a slim margin: Sarah Palin, at 47% to 45%. PPP's analysis suggests that the President is at his weakest point in "13 monthly surveys and a pretty clear indication that passing health care has not done anything to enhance his political standing, at least in the short term."

Far ahead of the game--and at a point where little predictive information can be gained--a new CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that if the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama would garner 47% of registered voters; an unnamed Republican challenger would poll an equal amount of voters.

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that former Massachusetts Governor, Mitt Romney is leading the 2012 presidential Republican nomination race with 28% support, followed by Mike Huckabee at 24% and Sarah Palin at 23% and Ron Paul at 11%. These numbers suggests not only a close race, but a decidedly undecided Republican party, split between the more mainstream conservatism of Romney, cultural conservatism of Huckabee, and Tea Bag conservatism of Palin.

In numbers that cannot be reassurinf to President Obama, 52% of Americans in a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Tuesday said that he does not deserve reelection in 2012. "44% of all Americans said they would vote to reelect the president in two and a half years, less than the slight majority who said they would prefer to elect someone else. Obama faces a 44-52 deficit among both all Americans and registered voters . . . . Four percent had no opinion."

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey President Obama, for the first time, "trails one of his hypothetical opponents," for reelection, "albeit by the smallest of margins."  Mike Huckabee edges Obama, 45% to 44%, but leads Mitt Romney (44% to 42%) and Sarah Palin (49% to 41%).

There is change in the air, at least in how Democrats will pick their presidential nominee in 2012: The DNC Change Commission, charged with revamping the nominating process, discussed draft findings and recommendations regarding the timing of primaries/caucuses, the role of super delegates, and caucus issues . . . As to timing, the discussion was relatively brief and consistent with prior discussions--Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada can [start voting] after Feb. 1, every other state goes after March 1, the rules should encourage regional clusters by offering incentives such as bonus delegates, the RBC will address enforcement procedures and sanctions, and the DNC will try to coordinate timing with the RNC rules committee.  The RNC coordination process is ongoing. Commission members recognized that the best hope for a spread out process lies with agreement with the RNC on starting date, both parties imposing the same penalties for going out of turn, incentives to states to move back and cluster, and the states recognition that frontloading is no longer the best way to get attention."

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research survey, 32% of GOP voters say they would support Mike Huckabee (R), followed by Sarah Palin (R) at 25%, Mitt Romney at 21% and Tim Pawlenty at 5% for the 2012 Republican nomination for president. The survey concludes: "Huckabee appears to have more support among Republicans than Palin and her unfavorable rating among all Americans is twice as high as Huckabee's. Palin may attract a lot of attention but the GOP may be looking elsewhere for their frontrunner."

According to a new Public Policy Polling analysis, "Barack Obama continues to lead his most likely 2012 rivals in hypothetical contests for reelection. Obama leads Mike Huckabee 47-43, Mitt Romney 48-40, Sarah Palin 52-40, and Tim Pawlenty 50-30.
This is the seventh time PPP has conducted this poll and the seventh time Huckabee has polled closest to Obama. Speaking to the weakness of the field of potential Republican candidates he's the only with a positive favorability rating and even then it's only 33/29. Huckabee's doing well because he connects better than the other GOP hopefuls with voters in the Midwest and South. For instance while Romney, Palin, and Pawlenty trail by 9, 17, and 18 points respectively in the Midwest Huckabee is down by just 3, something that could be a good omen for his prospects of again winning the Iowa primary as he did in 2008."

According to Gallup, Sarah Palin's national standing remains relatively low: "Palin became a bit of a sensation after John McCain tapped her as his running mate last August. But over the course of the campaign, her image suffered, going from a 53% favorable rating immediately after the 2008 Republican National Convention to 42% by the end of the campaign. Palin's ratings have not recovered, and her current 40% favorable rating is the lowest for her since she became widely known after last year's Republican convention."As for her chances in 2012, Gallup finds that sge is still popular with the Republican base, faring competitively against other GOP leaders like Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney: "Palin could compete for the 2012 nomination because she is still widely liked by Republicans -- 69% have a favorable opinion of her while only 25% view her unfavorably. But she may have difficulty succeeding in the general election, given that Democrats have overwhelmingly negative opinions of her, and independents view her more negatively than positively."

Republican Sarah Palin of Alaska--once one of the nation's most popular Governors, with approval rating hovering at 80%--is left office this past week on a sour note with voters. More voters in the state now view her negatively, according to a new survey by Hays Research. As it now stands, 47.5% of Alaska voters have an unfavorable view of Palin while 46.8% are favorable.

Despite President Obama's somewhat diminished, but still decent, approval rating in the key swing state of Minnesota, voters seem prepared to enthusiastically reelect him over incumbent Republican Governor and likely 2012 presidential candidate, Tim Pawlenty. According new a Public Policy Polling survey, "Obama's approval rating in Minnesota has dropped six points since April, but that doesn't mean voters are responding too positively to some of his Republican alternatives. 54% of voters in the state now give Obama good marks, with 39% saying they disapprove of his job performance. That's down from a 60/30 spread when PPP last polled it in April. Obama has maintained all of his popularity with Democrats but has seen a small drop in his support among independents and a significant one with Republicans. Where before 23% of voters in the opposing party thought he was doing a good job, now just 12% do. Obama nevertheless fares very well when pitted in hypothetical contest against Tim Pawlenty . . . Against Pawlenty Obama leads 51-40, a margin that would actually exceed what he won against John McCain in the state last fall."Significantly, the same poll reveals that he would beat Alaska Governor by a whopping 21-point margin if the 2012 were held today--56% to 35%--"which would be the most lopsided Presidential result in the state since Lyndon Johnson's landslide against Barry Goldwater in 1964"

With some polls showing Obama's overall approval rating as high as 60% (Gallup) or as low as 52% (Rasmussen), a new Public Policy Polling survey shows an even steeper, indeed dramatic decline: The poll "finds Barack Obama’s approval rating dropping to 50%, continuing a gradual decline in his numbers over the last two months. In May Obama was at 55%. That dropped to 52% in June before today’s poll. Obama’s decline comes largely as a result of a reduction in his bipartisan support. His approval among Republicans is now 12% after being in the 18-19% range in the previous two polls. While he has maintained strong support from African Americans and Hispanics his approval has dipped to below 40% with whites. He’s also seen a pretty large shift with moderates, from 67% approval to 61%."

His long term prospects for reelection--a ridiculous thing to poll at this point, since presidents do not generally come into their own politically for several years after their election--appear rosier according to PPP: "Tested in hypothetical contests against some possible 2012 GOP opponents Obama still maintains leads similar to what he won in the popular vote against John McCain last fall. He has a nine point lead against Mitt Romney, eight point ones against Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin, and a six point one against Mike Huckabee."

Yet, another poll by Rasmussen, reports a much bleaker outlook for the President in 2012: "If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama and possible Republican nominee Mitt Romney would be all tied up at 45% each, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. The president, seeking a second four-year term, beats another potential GOP rival, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, by six points – 48% to 42%. In both match-ups, 7% like some other candidate, with 3% undecided."

Former MA Governor Mitt Romney has pulled into an early lead in the race for the 2012 GOP nomination for president. According to Gallup, "about one in four Republicans and Republican-leaning independents make Mitt Romney their top choice for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, giving him a slight edge over Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the choice of 14% of Republicans, with much smaller numbers choosing current Govs. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Haley Barbour of Mississippi.

Here is Gallup's chart:

In a result that may appear somewhat counterintuitive, given the president's healthy approval rating 100 days into his administration, a new Rasmussen Poll reports that "for the first time since Obama was elected president last November, more than half of U.S. voters (53%) say it is at least somewhat likely that the next occupant of the White House will be a Republican. 31% say it is Very Likely. 35% say it is not very or not at all likely, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. 12% aren’t sure. This is not an expectation related to the 2012 election. It is a question about the President following Obama which could happen in either 2012 or 2016."

In the 2008 cycle, the state of Colorado was the ultimate swing state, a strong bellwether of other states that have remained close in recent national cycles. Where does the state stand today with regard to Barack Obama? PollTrack suggests that the answer may not be good news for the new president. According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Obama receives approval from only "49% of voters with 45% dissenting. . . . a much smaller swath of the electorate approving of [his] job performance than voted for [him] last fall, and it looks like a lot of that may have to do with [his] standing among independent voters. An average of PPP’s final three Colorado polls last year found Obama . . . doing spectacularly well among independent voters. Obama had a 24 point lead . . . But now only 48% of independents approve of what the President is doing with 47% disapproving."

President Obama's approval rating--when matched to voters' party affiliation, according to a new Pew Research Survey--suggest as wide partisan gap: "For all of his hopes about bipartisanship, Barack Obama has the most polarized early job approval ratings of any president in the past four decades. The 61-point partisan gap in opinions about Obama's job performance is the result of a combination of high Democratic ratings for the president -- 88% job approval among Democrats -- and relatively low approval ratings among Republicans (27%). By comparison, there was a somewhat smaller 51-point partisan gap in views of George W. Bush's job performance in April 2001, a few months into his first term. At that time, Republican enthusiasm for Bush was comparable to how Democrats feel about Obama today, but there was substantially less criticism from members of the opposition party. Among Democrats, 36% approved of Bush's job performance in April 2001; that compares with a 27% job approval rating for Obama among Republicans today." The longterm implications of this are unclear, PollTrack believes, because the poll does not report the leanings of the all-important independent and unaffiliated voters.

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Obama would easily defeat Republican Sarah Palin in 2012 in a hypothetical match up, suggesting that such a contest would result in the largest popular vote blowout since George McGovern ran against Richard Nixon in 1972: "Obama leads Palin 55%-35% in the hypothetical contest. He has an 89%-7% advantage among Democrats. Among Republican he trails 66%-17%. Last year exit polls showed Obama winning only 9% of the Republican vote, so it appears Palin would lose a lot more voters within her party than McCain did. It’s also worth noting that while only 3% of Democrats are undecided about who they would support in an Obama/Palin contest, 18% of Republicans are, an indication of even more hesitation with some GOP voters about supporting Palin if she ended up as the nominee"

A new CNN/Opinion Research poll of registered Republican voters suggests that Sarah Palin has a slight--but only slight edge--in the race for the 2012 GOP nomination for president: 29% of say they are most likely to support Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. "Right behind the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, and well within the poll's 4.5% sampling error, is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. 26% of those questioned say they are most likely backing the former, and possibly future, Republican presidential candidate. 21% of Republicans polled say they most likely would support former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, another GOP hopeful from the last campaign who may put his hat into the ring again. 9% say they would probably back Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal." The poll was taken before Jindal's primtime response to President Obana's Monday night address to congress, a performance that has met with considerable criticism from a number of Republican commentators. 10% of respondents support other candidates.

Politico reports that Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, "seen by many Republicans as the most promising standard-bearer for a remade party, said at a Richmond, Va press conference that he isn't running for president in 2012.  At a news conference Wednesday with Bob McDonnell, Virginia's 2009 Republican candidate for governor, Jindal was asked if he was interested in being president, AP reports. His answer: "No." Jindal said he's planning to run for reelection in 2011, something that would make pivoting to a national campaign logistically and politically tricky."

The race for the White House has just begun anew. Not for 2008, of course. But in 2012, one name has emerged as a Repiblican challenger to Barack Obama: Former Massachusetts governer, Mitt Romney. According to the Boston Globe, Romney "is laying the groundwork for a possible White House campaign in 2012, hiring a team of staff members and consultants with money from a fund-raising committee he established with the ostensible purpose of supporting other GOP candidates." The article goes on to report that Romney has raised $2.1 million for his Free and Strong America political action committee (to help Republican candidate's accross the country), but notes that only 12 percent of the money has been spent distributing checks. "Instead, the largest chunk of the money has gone to support Romney's political ambitions, paying for salaries and consulting fees to over a half-dozen of Romney's longtime political aides, according to a Globe review of expenditures." In other words, Romney is building the groundwork for a 2012 run.

President-elect Barack Obama hasn't even been inaugurated, and CNN/Opinion Research is out with a new poll handicaping the race for the Republican nomination in 2012. In its survey of registered voters, former Arkansas governer Mike Huckabee tops the list at 34%. Sarah Palin, John McCain's nominee for vice-president, comes in second at 32%. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is in third place in the poll, with 28%. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich draws 27%. And former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani comes in fifth at 23%. 

Barack Obama has not even been sworn in as the nation's 44th president, and Gallup is out with a new survey about Republican Party preferences for president in 2012. Surprisingly or not, the top names were also active in this year's campaign. According to Gallup, "Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are most interested in seeing Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee run for the party's presidential nomination in 2012. Those three received the highest scores among the 10 possible candidates evaluated in a recent Gallup Panel survey." GOP support is at 67% for Palin, 62% for Romney, and 61% for Huckabee. Not all of this year's candidates muster enthusiasm among the GOP ranks: "Republicans are evenly divided as to whether Rudy Giuliani should make another attempt at the White House. Giuliani was the early front-runner for the 2008 nomination, but performed poorly in the early primaries and caucuses before dropping out of the race . . . Republicans are also evenly divided on potential candidacies from former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal . . . [They] are decidedly unenthusiastic about possible White House bids from former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, current Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham."