Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Obama Holds Massive Lead Among Women

Posted Oct 02, 2012 at 9:41 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new survey sponsored by the YWCA, President Obama now holds a huge, +18% lead over GOP challenger Mitt Romney among women, 49% to 31%. Similarly, a Quinnipiac poll released this morning reports that the president holds a huge +18% lead among women, 56% to 38%. (The poll reports that Romney holds a much smaller lead among men, 53% to 42%.). If
this lead holds, it may well be impossible, from a demographic standpoint, for Romney to cobble together enough votes from men and other groups hospitable to the Republican Party to prevail in this November's election.

Breakdown Of Obama's Approval Rating

Posted Dec 22, 2009 at 1:12 AM by Maurice Berger

A Pew Research Center survey offers a breakdown of Obama's approval status by race, age, gender, and political affiliation. At years end, it offers a snapshop of where the President stands with various groups. Fully 88% of non-Hispanic African Americans approve of Obama’s job performance, compared with 39% of non-Hispanic whites. Obama continues to draw broad support from his Democratic base: comparable percentages of liberal Democrats (85%) and conservative and moderate Democrats (82%) approve of the way he is handling his job. By contrast, Republicans overwhelmingly disapprove (19% approve vs. 73% disapprove); among conservative Republicans just 12% approve of Obama’s job performance while 82% disapprove.

Lifetime Television: Palin Helps McCain With Female Voters

Posted Sep 23, 2008 at 12:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite recent suggestions that Sarah Palin's popularity is leveling off, a new Lifetime Television poll finds McCain's running mate "has greatly increased the GOP ticket's appeal to women." One important finding: McCain-Palin holds a 44% to 42% lead over Obama-Biden on who has a "better understanding of women and what is important" to them. Obama's lead was a whopping 34% in July, 52% to 18%.

The Palin Effect IV: Wait And See

Posted Sep 10, 2008 at 1:45 AM by Maurice Berger

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal survey out yesterday indicates that both candidate's favorable ratings are up, higher than those for Bush and Kerry in 2004. This suggests that both candidates have fired up their respective bases (plus a good number of independents as well). Conclusion: the election remains a statistical tie, with neither candidate pulling significantly ahead of the other.

The Palin Effect continues to improve McCain's standing. The same poll reports an alarming decline in white female support for the Democrat as well as a significant drop in female support overall. The survey observes: "In last month's NBC/WSJ poll, Obama was leading McCain by 14 points among female voters; now that lead is just four points. Moreover, Obama was up by 20 points in August among women ages 18-49; now McCain is ahead by three points. And last month, Obama held a one-point lead among white women; now McCain is up among them by 10 points."

But will this continue? It's hard to say. Palin is the least vetted of the four candidates on the respective Democratic and Republican tickets. On the other hand, she has tapped into and ignited a demographic crucial to winning in November and heretofore skittish about Obama: married white women (especially in small towns, rural areas, and some suburban districts). These voters tend to skew more conservative than single women and they tend to vote much more reliably. By activating voter enthusiasm among Evangelicals, Christian conservatives AND a significant swath of the female demographic, Palin, for now, helps give McCain a slight edge. But for how long?