Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Prediction Market Gives Obama A More Than 85% Chance Of Victory

Posted Oct 16, 2008 at 4:46 AM by Maurice Berger

On Intrade, the nation's preeminent futures market, where online traders bet on the outcome of upcoming events, Obama is walking away with Election 2008. Futures traders now give him an 85%+ chance of victory in November. McCain is at his lowest point to date on Intrade--this morning coming in at a paltry 14.0%.

Intrade: Futures Market Points to Obama Victory

Posted Oct 10, 2008 at 4:02 AM by Maurice Berger

Intrade, the preeminent online futures market, where bets are placed on the likely outcome of upcoming events, has some bad news for McCain. The money is now on Obama to win in November, by a wide margin. For the first time since the fall campaign began, the Democrat now grazes the 80% mark (this morning Obama was trading at 79.1 vs 22.0 for McCain). The market itself is highly impressionable, responding quickly to the ebb and flow of news events and public opinion polls. And it sometimes gets it wrong: the day before the New Hampshire Democratic primary in January, Obama was trading at +95.0. Clinton, of course, went on to win. In state by state trading, Obama's lead is just as lopsided, with bettors predicting a 353 to 185 electoral vote advantage for the Democrat.

Prediction Market: McCain Moves Ahead

Posted Sep 11, 2008 at 5:42 AM by Maurice Berger

Intrade, the preeminent online "prediction market"--where online bidders place bets on the outcome of forthcoming political, social, and cultural events--has some troubling news for the Obama campaign: McCain has for the first time moved ahead of his Democratic rival on the question of who will win in November. While this number is not in and of itself meaningful, it suggests one implicit problem for the Democrats: the perception, in the minds of many voters, that an Obama victory is no longer inevitable. (See below, "Most Americans Now Think McCain, Not Obama, Will Win," 8 September.)