Posted Jan 14, 2010 at 10:27 AM by Maurice Berger
In a fascinating analysis, Nate Silver notes a distinct correlation between states that have passed gay marriage bans and the divorse rate among hetrosexual couples:
"Over the past decade or so, divorce has gradually become more uncommon
in the United States. Since 2003, however, the decline in divorce rates
has been largely confined to states which have not passed a state
constitutional ban on gay marriage. These states saw their divorce
rates decrease by an average of 8 percent between 2003 and 2008. States
which had passed a same-sex marriage ban as of January 1, 2008,
however, saw their divorce rates rise by about 1 percent over the same
period."
Tagged: 2010, gay marriage, gay rights
Posted Jun 03, 2009 at 10:22 AM by Maurice Berger
A reader, Derek Fields, writes the following to PollTrack's political director:
I haven't seen the specific wording of the Gallup poll, but I wonder
whether they ask any questions that separate the issue of legal
protections for "united" gays versus the religious overtones of the
term "marriage" My understanding is that when a pollster asks a
question that addresses the civil protections without introducing the
term marriage, support for gay unions jumps substantially.
Given the strong support generational divide in the poll numbers, I
would speculate that the days when a majority opposes gay marriage in
this country are severely limited.
Given the descrepany in recent polling, Derek is undoutedly correct. The very wording of a question within a survey--especially a controversial one--can dramatically alter the overall result. As for the second point, fresh polling absolutely backs up Derek's assumption about future attitudes about gay marriage. The recent Gallup survey, for example, reports that a "majority of 18- to 29-year-olds think gay or lesbian couples
should be allowed to legally marry, while support reaches only as high
as 40% among the three older age groups." The overall numbers for support of gay marriage amomng younger voters hovers around the 60% mark--a clear harbinger of future trends in the United States.
Tagged: 2009, gay marriage, gay rights, Voter Enthusiasm, Younger Voters, polling methodologies, polling samples, Polling
Posted May 29, 2009 at 9:45 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Gallup, contradicting several other recent surveys that indicate a large national uptick in support for gay marriage, reports that "Americans' views on same-sex marriage have essentially stayed the same in the
past year, with a majority of 57% opposed to granting such marriages legal
status and 40% in favor of doing so. Though support for legal same-sex marriage
is significantly higher now than when Gallup first asked about it in 1996, in
recent years support has appeared to stall, peaking at 46% in 2007. Among major demographic or attitudinal subgroups, self-identified liberals
show the greatest support for legal gay marriage at 75% in the May 7-10 poll. By
contrast, only 19% of conservatives think same-sex marriages should be legally
valid. Just a slim majority (55%) of Democrats approve of gay marriage, but they are
more likely to do so than independents (45%) and Republicans (20%). Younger Americans have typically been much more supportive of same-sex
marriage than older Americans, and that is the case in the current poll. A
majority of 18- to 29-year-olds think gay or lesbian couples should be allowed
to legally marry, while support reaches only as high as 40% among the three
older age groups."
Tagged: 2009, gay marriage, gay rights, Proposition 8
Posted May 08, 2009 at 8:20 AM by Maurice Berger
A new CBS News/ New York Times reports that support for "Gay Marriage" among Americans is at an all-time high: "Forty-two percent of Americans now say same sex couples should be
allowed to legally marry, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds.
That's up nine points from last month, when 33 percent supported
legalizing same sex marriage.
Support for same sex marriage is now at its highest point since CBS News starting asking about it in 2004.
Twenty-eight percent say same sex couples should have no legal
recognition – down from 35 percent in March – while 25 percent support
civil unions, but not marriage, for gay couples.
As has historically been the case on this issue, liberals are more
likely to support same sex marriage. Sixty-nine percent support the
idea, while conservatives generally favor either civil unions (28
percent) or no legal recognition (44 percent)."
Tagged: gay rights, 2009, gay marriage
