Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Firm Majority Support For Same Sex Marriage

Posted Sep 09, 2014 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a suyrvey by Marist college, "When it comes to support for legalizing same-sex marriage, 54% of Americans either strongly favor or favor doing so.  According to trend data from the Pew Research Center, support for gay marriage has been on an upswing, reaching a plurality of support among Americans in 2011 and majority support just last year in 2013. Attitudes about legalizing gay marriage fall along party lines with more than six in ten Democrats, 62%, favoring the action.  A similar proportion of Republicans, 63%, are against it.  Age also matters.  65% of Americans under 45 years of age support legalization of same-sex marriage compared with 44% of their older counterparts who share this view. More than one in ten Americans, 12%, has changed their opinion on legalizing same-sex marriage, favoring it now while opposing it previously."

  • When it comes to support for legalizing same-sex marriage, 54% of Americans either strongly favor or favor doing so.  According to trend data from the Pew Research Center, support for gay marriage has been on an upswing, reaching a plurality of support among Americans in 2011 and majority support just last year in 2013.
  • Attitudes about legalizing gay marriage fall along party lines with more than six in ten Democrats, 62%, favoring the action.  A similar proportion of Republicans, 63%, are against it.  Age also matters.  65% of Americans under 45 years of age support legalization of same-sex marriage compared with 44% of their older counterparts who share this view.
  • More than one in ten Americans, 12%, has changed their opinion on legalizing same-sex marriage, favoring it now while opposing it previously.  Only 1% now opposes allowing same-sex couples to marry when they once favored legalization.
  • - See more at: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/815-views-on-same-sex-marriage-supporters-look-to-feds-opponents-more-to-states/#sthash.URdlcf9n.dpuf
  • When it comes to support for legalizing same-sex marriage, 54% of Americans either strongly favor or favor doing so.  According to trend data from the Pew Research Center, support for gay marriage has been on an upswing, reaching a plurality of support among Americans in 2011 and majority support just last year in 2013.
  • Attitudes about legalizing gay marriage fall along party lines with more than six in ten Democrats, 62%, favoring the action.  A similar proportion of Republicans, 63%, are against it.  Age also matters.  65% of Americans under 45 years of age support legalization of same-sex marriage compared with 44% of their older counterparts who share this view.
  • More than one in ten Americans, 12%, has changed their opinion on legalizing same-sex marriage, favoring it now while opposing it previously.  Only 1% now opposes allowing same-sex couples to marry when they once favored legalization.
  • - See more at: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/815-views-on-same-sex-marriage-supporters-look-to-feds-opponents-more-to-states/#sthash.URdlcf9n.dpuf

    LGBT Voters Skew Liberal

    Posted Sep 08, 2014 at 8:47 AM by Maurice Berger

    According to a survey by Gallup, "Americans who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender remain significantly more likely than non-LGBT Americans to identify as Democrats. More than six in 10 LGBT Americans identify as Democrats or are Democratic-leaning independents, while 21% identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. Non-LGBT Americans are more evenly divided in their politics, tilting just slightly more Democratic than Republican." Here is Gallup's Chart:

    Party Identification, by LGBT Status, January-June 2014

    Substantial Majority Of Young Republicans Support Gay Marriage

    Posted Mar 12, 2014 at 9:00 AM by Maurice Berger

    According to a poll released by Pew Research, "today, 61% of Republicans and Republican leaners under 30 favor same-sex marriage while just 35% oppose it. By contrast, just 27% of Republicans ages 50 and older favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry."


    Record-High Majority Now Supports Same-Sex Marriage

    Posted Mar 06, 2014 at 7:45 AM by Maurice Berger

    According to a new Washington Post-ABC Newsa record-high 59% say they support same-sex marriage. 34% are opposed. Additionally, 50% of Americans say the U.S. Constitution's guarantee of equal protection gives gays the right to marry. 41% say it does not.


    Majority Support Gay Marriage Rights To Extend Nationally

    Posted Jul 29, 2013 at 9:10 AM by Maurice Berger

    A new poll by Gallup reports that if Americans were given the opportunity to vote on a national law legalizing gay marriage in all 50 states, a majority, 52%, would now cast their vote in favor; 43% would vote against it.

    Gay Marriage Has Majority Support In Virginia

    Posted Jul 18, 2013 at 8:14 AM by Maurice Berger

    A new poll by the Human Rights Campaign in Virginia reports that 55% of voters in the state now favor same-sex marriage; 41% are opposed to it. The HRC writes that the survey shows how sentiment about same-sex marriage has "shifted in its favor seven years after voters easily passed an amendment to the state constitution that defines marriage as between one man and one woman."

    Strong Majority Support Gay Marriage Rights

    Posted Jun 13, 2013 at 9:51 AM by Maurice Berger

    A new poll by Washington Post/ABC News reports that "57% of Americans support allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally, and 63% say the federal government should give the same benefits to legally married gays that it gives to other married couples."

    Clear Majority Now Back Gay Marriage

    Posted Apr 18, 2013 at 9:11 AM by Maurice Berger

    A new poll by the Wall Street Journal/NBC News confirms the rapidly growing trend towards acceptance of same sex marriage. The survey finds support for gay marriage "now stands at 53%, up from 49% last March and 30% in 2004. For the first time . . . the survey found a majority of independent voters saying gays should be allowed to enter into same-sex marriages, with Democrats continuing to support gay marriage in large numbers and Republicans opposing it."

    Support For Same-Sex Marriage At All-Time Highlighted

    Posted Mar 19, 2013 at 8:07 AM by Maurice Berger

    A new ABC News/Washington Post poll reports that support for gay marriage is now at an all-time high--58%--"marking a dramatic change in public attitudes on the subject across the past decade. . . . That number has grown sharply... from a low of 32 percent in a 2004 survey of registered voters."

    Where Are LGTB Populations Highest and Lowest In US?

    Posted Feb 22, 2013 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger

    A recent survey by Gallup reports that "the percentage of U.S. adults who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender (LGBT) ranges from 1.7% in North Dakota to 5.1% in Hawaii and 10% in the District of Columbia, according to Gallup surveys conducted from June-December 2012. Residents in the District of Columbia were most likely to identify as LGBT (10%). Among states, the highest percentage was in Hawaii (5.1%) and the lowest in North Dakota (1.7%), but all states are within two percentage points of the nationwide average of 3.5%." Here is Gallup's chart:

    LGBT by State, 2012

     

    The GOP Lost On Issues, Too

    Posted Nov 13, 2012 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger

    While much has been made of shifting demographics in this election cycle--and it is clear from exit polling that an uptick in African-American, Hispanic, and young voters and a decrease in white participation from 2008 made a big difference in the outcome--it is easy to forget that on the issues, the GOP lost as well. As NBC News' Mark Murray, reports: "For years, the GOP has branded itself as the party that supports low taxes (especially for the wealthy) and opposes abortion and gay marriage. But according to the exit polls from last week's presidential election, a combined 60% said that tax rates should increase either for everyone or for those making more than $250,000. Just 35% said the tax rates shouldn't increase for anyone."

    Murray continues: "What's more, 59% said that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. And by a 49%-to-46% margin, voters said that their states should legally recognize same-sex marriage."

    Has Obama's Gay Marriage Stand Swung Voters in Maryland?

    Posted May 28, 2012 at 9:09 AM by Maurice Berger

    President Obama's recent support of same-sex marriage appears to have swung voters in Maryland, where a marriage referendum will appear on the ballot this fall: a new survey in the state by Public Policy Polling reports a significant increase in support for same-sex marriage among African American voters following President Obama's historic announcement two weeks ago. The referendum to keep the state's new law legalizing same-sex marriage appears headed for victory,  with support now at 57% (compared to 37% against), a 12 point shift from a similar survey in early March.

    Will The Presendent's Endorsement of Gay Marriage Change African American Sentiment?

    Posted May 22, 2012 at 9:04 AM by Maurice Berger

    One significant political question in the wake of the President's endorsement of same-sex marriage is whether this support will translate into a shift in African American public opinion on the subject. A new survey by Public Policy Polling in North Carolina reports that the answer may be yes. The poll finds "a noticeable shift" in the attitudes of African Americans toward rights for gay couples in the wake of President Obama's announcement last week that he supports gay marriage. PPP continues: "our final poll before the primary last week found only 20% of black voters in the state favoring gay marriage, with 63% opposed. Now 27% express support for gay marriage with 59% opposed, for an overall 11 point shift on the margin."

    Majority Of Americans Support Obama's Gay Marriage Position

    Posted May 14, 2012 at 9:01 AM by Maurice Berger

    A new poll by USA Today/Gallup reports that 51% of Americans say they approve of President Obama's position that same-sex couples should be allowed to marry legal. 60% say, however,  that the president's shift in position will have no bearing on how they vote in the November election.

    Maine Voters Support Gay Marriage

    Posted Mar 07, 2012 at 9:01 AM by Maurice Berger

    A survey in Maine by Public Policy Polling reports that there is a strong probability that voters in the state are likely to reverse their 2009 decision and legalize gay marriage in this fall: 54% say gay marriage should be legal; only 41% who think it should be illegal. According to the poll, "Republicans' opinions are pretty much the same as they were in 2009. But Democrats' support for gay marriage has increased slightly, from 71% to 78%. And more importantly independents have gone from voting against gay marriage 52/46 three years ago to now supporting it by a 57/36 margin."

    Large Majority Support Same-Sex Marriage In NJ

    Posted Mar 02, 2012 at 2:19 AM by Maurice Berger

    Despite Gov. Christie's veto of a bill that would have made same-sex marriage legal in New Jersey, a new poll by Quinnipiac shows support in the state for gay marriage has climbed to an all-time high, 57% to 37%, a whopping +20% margin.

    Gallup: Dynamic Shift In Support Of Gay Marriage

    Posted May 23, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

    In what represents a dynamic shift in American public opinion, a new Gallup tracking survey reports that "for the first time in . . . of the issue, a majority of Americans (53%) believe same-sex marriage should be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages. The increase since last year came exclusively among political independents and Democrats. Republicans' views did not change. Here's Gallup's chart:

    1996-2011 Trend: Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?

    CNN: Majority of Americans Support Gay Marriage

    Posted Apr 26, 2011 at 1:55 AM by Maurice Berger

    In yet another milestone for gay and lesbian rights in the United States, a new CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that 51% of Americans think marriages between lesbian and gay couples should be legal; 47% believe the marriages should not be recognized.

    Milestone: Majority Of Americans Now Support Gay Marriage

    Posted Mar 25, 2011 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger

    According to polls conducted by ABC News/Washington Post, "more than half of Americans say it should be legal for gays and lesbians to marry, a first in nearly a decade of polls" conducted by these organizations. "This milestone result caps a dramatic, long-term shift in public attitudes. From a low of 32 percent in a 2004 survey of registered voters, support for gay marriage has grown to 53 percent today. Forty-four percent are opposed, down 18 points from that 2004 survey." Another survey indicates from Public Religion Research Institute reports that 43% of Catholics are now in favor of allowing gay and lesbian people to marry, 31% in favor of civil unions, and 22% who said there should be no legal recognition of a gay relationship. Just as significant, 39% of Catholics approve of the church's negative treatment of the issue of homosexuality; 56% do not.

    Poll: Same-Sex Marriage Milestone

    Posted Mar 09, 2011 at 12:32 AM by Maurice Berger

    The new General Social Survey from the University of Chicago reports that for the first time more Americans support same-sex marriage than oppose it: 46% to 40%. In a similar poll twenty-three years ago, a whopping 73% of Americans opposed same-sex marriage.

    Nation Overwhlemingly Favors Repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"

    Posted Dec 16, 2010 at 1:55 AM by Maurice Berger

    Despite the unwillingness of Senate Republicans to repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"--and the President's longstanding reluctance to end the policy outright--A new Washington Post-ABC News poll reports that 77% of Americans favor allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military. The poll observes: "The support also cuts across partisan and ideological lines, with majorities of Democrats, Republicans, independents, liberals, conservatives and white evangelical Protestants in favor of homosexuals' serving openly."

    By Wide Margin, Voters Support Repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"

    Posted Nov 22, 2010 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

    A just released Quinnipiac national poll reports that voters overwhelmingly support the repeal of the military's "Don't ask, don't tell" policy by a wide margin, 58% to 34%. Voters with a military member of the military in their family are nearly as supportive of repeal, by a margin of 55% to 38%.

    Majority of Americans Support Gay Marriage

    Posted Sep 21, 2010 at 1:07 AM by Maurice Berger

    Is the tide turning in the United States on gay marriage? A just released AP-GfK Poll reports that 52% of Americans support the rights of same-sex couples to marry. A recent Gallup poll also found majority support for gay marriage.

    By Wide Margin, Americans Want Repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"

    Posted Feb 18, 2010 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

    A new survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner reports that by a substantial margin--54% to 35%--voters overwhelmingly support repealing the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy. GQR writes:
    "Unlike so many other issues in the country right now, this issue simply does not polarize voters. Even among Republicans, repeal finds support with four in ten voters."

    Divorse Higher In States That Ban Gay Marriage

    Posted Jan 14, 2010 at 2:27 AM by Maurice Berger

    In a fascinating analysis, Nate Silver notes a distinct correlation between states that have passed gay marriage bans and the divorse rate among hetrosexual couples: "Over the past decade or so, divorce has gradually become more uncommon in the United States. Since 2003, however, the decline in divorce rates has been largely confined to states which have not passed a state constitutional ban on gay marriage. These states saw their divorce rates decrease by an average of 8 percent between 2003 and 2008. States which had passed a same-sex marriage ban as of January 1, 2008, however, saw their divorce rates rise by about 1 percent over the same period."

    Significant Jump In National Support For Gays In The Military

    Posted Jun 09, 2009 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger

    The nation is becoming increasingly friendly to the idea of gay rights and equality, as a recent Galup poll that measures attitudes about homosexuals serving openly in the military suggests: "Americans are six percentage points more likely than they were four years ago to favor allowing openly gay men and lesbian women to serve in the military, 69% to 63%. While liberals and Democrats remain the most supportive, the biggest increase in support has been among conservatives and weekly churchgoers -- up 12 and 11 percentage points, respectively."

    Gallup's analysis continues: "The finding that majorities of weekly churchgoers (60%), conservatives (58%), and Republicans (58%) now favor what essentially equates to repealing the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy implemented under President Clinton in 1993 is noteworthy for several reasons. First, the data show that these traditionally conservative groups are shifting on this issue, supporting it to a far greater extent than they support legalized gay marriage. Second, it suggests the political playing field may be softer on this issue, and President Barack Obama will be well-positioned to forge ahead with his campaign promise to end the military ban on openly gay service members with some support from more conservative segments of the population. To date, it is estimated that more than 12,500 servicemen and servicewomen have been discharged under the policy, including more than 200 since Obama took office."

    The Question Of Gay Marriage

    Posted Jun 03, 2009 at 2:22 AM by Maurice Berger

    A reader, Derek Fields, writes the following to PollTrack's political director:

    I haven't seen the specific wording of the Gallup poll, but I wonder whether they ask any questions that separate the issue of legal protections for "united" gays versus the religious overtones of the term "marriage"  My understanding is that when a pollster asks a question that addresses the civil protections without introducing the term marriage, support for gay unions jumps substantially. 

    Given the strong support generational divide in the poll numbers, I would speculate that the days when a majority opposes gay marriage in this country are severely limited.

    Given the descrepany in recent polling, Derek is undoutedly correct. The very wording of a question within a survey--especially a controversial one--can dramatically alter the overall result. As for the second point, fresh polling absolutely backs up Derek's assumption about future attitudes about gay marriage. The recent Gallup survey, for example, reports that a "majority of 18- to 29-year-olds think gay or lesbian couples should be allowed to legally marry, while support reaches only as high as 40% among the three older age groups." The overall numbers for support of gay marriage amomng younger voters hovers around the 60% mark--a clear harbinger of future trends in the United States.

    Gallup: Majority Of Americans Reject Gay Marriage

    Posted May 29, 2009 at 1:45 AM by Maurice Berger

    A new Gallup, contradicting several other recent surveys that indicate a large national uptick in support for gay marriage, reports that "Americans' views on same-sex marriage have essentially stayed the same in the past year, with a majority of 57% opposed to granting such marriages legal status and 40% in favor of doing so. Though support for legal same-sex marriage is significantly higher now than when Gallup first asked about it in 1996, in recent years support has appeared to stall, peaking at 46% in 2007. Among major demographic or attitudinal subgroups, self-identified liberals show the greatest support for legal gay marriage at 75% in the May 7-10 poll. By contrast, only 19% of conservatives think same-sex marriages should be legally valid. Just a slim majority (55%) of Democrats approve of gay marriage, but they are more likely to do so than independents (45%) and Republicans (20%). Younger Americans have typically been much more supportive of same-sex marriage than older Americans, and that is the case in the current poll. A majority of 18- to 29-year-olds think gay or lesbian couples should be allowed to legally marry, while support reaches only as high as 40% among the three older age groups."

    Increasing Support For Gay Marriage

    Posted May 08, 2009 at 12:20 AM by Maurice Berger

    A new CBS News/ New York Times reports that support for "Gay Marriage" among Americans is at an all-time high: "Forty-two percent of Americans now say same sex couples should be allowed to legally marry, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds. That's up nine points from last month, when 33 percent supported legalizing same sex marriage. Support for same sex marriage is now at its highest point since CBS News starting asking about it in 2004. Twenty-eight percent say same sex couples should have no legal recognition – down from 35 percent in March – while 25 percent support civil unions, but not marriage, for gay couples. As has historically been the case on this issue, liberals are more likely to support same sex marriage. Sixty-nine percent support the idea, while conservatives generally favor either civil unions (28 percent) or no legal recognition (44 percent)."

    New Jersey Voters Support Same Sex Marriage

    Posted Apr 27, 2009 at 1:21 AM by Maurice Berger

    Although the president and many members of congress have come out strongly against same sex marriage, the idea appears to be catching on in many states. Take New Jersey, for example, where a new poll finds that by a 49 - 43 percent margin, state "voters support a law that would allow same-sex couples to marry . . . And voters support 63 - 30 percent the existing law establishing civil unions for same-sex couples.  A proposed same-sex marriage law wins 64 - 29 percent support from Democrats and 50 - 41 percent from independent voters, but Republicans oppose it 67 - 26 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men oppose it 48 - 44 percent while women back same-sex marriage 53 - 39 percent. Black voters oppose same-sex marriage 54 - 38 percent, while white voters support it 50 - 42 percent. Voters who attend religious services once a week oppose same-sex marriage 65 - 28 percent while voters who attend services less frequently support it 61 - 30 percent."