Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

GOP With Slight Lead On Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Aug 07, 2014 at 9:44 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by NBC/WSJ/Marist reports that Americans "are divided on congressional control for the upcoming midterm elections." By a margin of 43% to 41%, voters say they want to see congressional Republicans stay in control of the House, and, by the same margin, the Senate.

Congressional Generic Ballot Nearly Tied

Posted May 07, 2014 at 9:54 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by CNN/ORC International reports that Republicans lead the generic congressional ballot among registered voters by 46% to 45%. PollTrack sees the GOP advantage as considerably greater, however, due to the tendency of Democratic voter participation to drop in non-presidential Federal cycles. In other words, a reading of all registered voters is not the same as that of likely voters.

GOP Ahead In Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Mar 13, 2014 at 6:38 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by New York Times/CBS News reports that Republicans "are in a stronger position than Democrats for this year's midterm elections, benefiting from the support of self-described independents, even though the party itself is deeply divided and most Americans agree more with Democratic policy positions." Republicans lead 42% to 39% in the poll's generic ballot.

GOP Leads Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Dec 18, 2013 at 12:33 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Quinnipiac, Republicans lead in the generic congressional ballot--by 41% to 38%--the first time they have led all year.

Democrats Now Lead In Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Aug 17, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

Has the recent debt ceiling negotations taken its toll on the Republicans in congress? A new Gallup poll suggests that the answer may be yes. The survey reports that Democrats lead Republicans in the 2012 congressional elections among registered voters, 51% to 44%, when asked which party's candidate they would support in their district "if the elections for Congress were being held today."  Gallup observes: "The seven-percentage-point edge for Democratic congressional candidates, nationally, contrasts with ties or Republican leads in most Gallup polls leading up to the 2010 midterm elections. However, the Democratic advantage is not as large as those they enjoyed in the 2006 and 2008 congressional election cycles -- each of which produced a Democratic majority in Congress. The Democrats averaged a 10-point lead over Republicans among registered voters in the year prior to the 2008 elections and an 11-point advantage leading up to the 2006 elections"

Democrats Ahead In Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted May 11, 2011 at 12:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A CNN/Opinion Research poll reports that registered voters favor a generic Democrat over a Republican in next year's congressional election, 50% to 46%. Women and non-college voters--both of whom supported the GOP in 2010--now favoring Democrats by 10% and 9%, respectively.

GOP Continues To Lead in Congressional Generic Ballot

Posted Apr 05, 2011 at 1:00 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a just released Quinnipiac survvey, Republicans continue to lead Democrats in the generic congressional ballot, now by three points: 40% to 37%.

Gallup: GOP With Big Lead In Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Oct 12, 2010 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

The latest Gallup tracking poll for the generic congressional ballot reports a big GOP advantage: " Republicans maintain a substantial advantage over Democrats among likely voters in Gallup's generic ballot for Congress -- in both lower- and higher-turnout scenarios -- fueled in part by the GOP's strong showing among independents . . . Among voters Gallup estimates to be most likely to vote at this point under either a higher- or lower-turnout scenario, Republicans maintain substantial double-digit advantages. In Gallup's higher-turnout scenario, Republicans lead 53% to 41%. In Gallup's lower-turnout scenario, Republicans lead 56% to 39%" Gallup's reported GOP advantage, if it holds on Election Day, would most probably result in historic loses for the Democrats. Stay tuned. 

Generic Congressional Ballot: Who's Ahead And By How Much

Posted Oct 06, 2010 at 12:59 AM by Maurice Berger

As per Real Clear Politics: "Probably the biggest polling news of the day was the Gallup generic ballot poll that showed Republicans leading Democrats 56 percent to 38 percent.  That 18-point lead is predicated upon a "low turnout" scenario, and would represent historic highs for the Republican Party -- it would probably represent the most seats won by either party since the early 70s.

Gallup also produced a model anticipating slightly higher turnout.  Under this model, the Republicans led by 13 points, which is still an historic result in the Gallup model.  Among registered voters, Republicans led by 3 points.

Rasmussen Reports, by contrast, saw the race tightening significantly, with Republicans leading Democrats by only three points, 45 percent to 42 percent.  This represented the closest ballot test in roughly a year.  Of course, the big difference between the two polls is the number of undecideds; it may well be that Democrats are truly stuck at around 40 percent, and undecideds are leaning heavily GOP."

Generic Congressional Ballot: Another Poll Shows GOP Advantage

Posted Sep 14, 2010 at 1:54 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Gallup tracking poll reports that the GOP leads the generic congressional ballot among registered voters by +5%, 48% to 43%. One finding that may be particularly troubling to Democrats, though with a possible hopeful sign: "Republicans show substantially more enthusiasm than Democrats about voting in this year's midterm elections, as they have all year. The gap was slightly smaller in the most recent week -- 18 points, versus at least 23 points in the prior three weeks -- owing to increased enthusiasm among Democrats."